ეკონომისტი 2-2016 ბოლო ვარიანტი€¦ · diagrama2. mosaxleobis saerTo matebis (klebis) komponentebi saqarTveloSi1960-2000wlebSi,aTasobiT(garemigracia:1960-1989ww._

2016

2

tomi-volumeIX

UDC33e-49

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetipaata guguSvilis ekonomikis instituti

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute ofEconomics

ekonomisti

ekonomisti

2016

2

tomi-volumeIX

“ekonomisti”, “Ekonomisti” #2, 2016

2

ivane javaxiSvilis saxelobis Tbilisis saxelmwifo universitetipaata guguSvilis ekonomikis instituti

saerTaSoriso recenzirebadi samecniero-analitikuri Jurnali

Ivane Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University Paata Gugushvili Institute ofEconomics

International Reviewed Scientific-Analytical Journal

gamodis 2009 wlis ianvridan or TveSi erTxel,2016 wlidan _ kvartalSi erTxel

Published scince January 2009 once in two months,Scince 2016 - Quarterly

redaqciis misamarTi: Tbilisi, 0105, g. qiqoZis q. 14;tel.: 293 34 44; 599 970103.

Edress: Tbilisi, 0105, Kikodze street,tel. (+995 32) 293 34 44; 599 970103.


profesorebi:samecniero-saredaqcio sabWo

ramaz abesaZe (mTavari redaqtori), iuri ananiaSvili, rozeta asaTiani, givibedianaSvili, Teimuraz beriZe, giorgi berulava, vaxtang burduli, revazgvelesiani, revaz gogoxia, revaz kakulia, Temur kandelaki, murman kva-racxelia, alfred kurataSvili, iakob mesxia, elguja meqvabiSvili, so-lomon pavliaSvili, vladimer papava (akademikosi), uSangi samadaSvili,roland sarCimelia, avTandil silagaZe (akademikosi), avTandil sulabe-riZe, Teimuraz Sengelia, Tina CxeiZe, nodar WiTanava, nodar xaduri,eTer xaraiSvili, mixeil jibuti.

mTavari redaqtoris TanaSemwe _ ekonomikis doqtori mamuka xuskivaZepasuxismgebeli mdivani _ ekonomikis doqtori Tea lazaraSvili

samecniero-saredaqcio sabWos ucxoeli wevrebi

larisa belinskaia (vilniusis universiteti), ruslan grinbergi (ruseTismecnierebaTa akademiis ekonomikis instituti), simone guerCini (flo-renciis universiteti), volfgang vengi (berlinis teqnikuri universiteti),tomas d. vileti (klermontis universiteti), eldar ismailovi (baqos so-cialuri marTvisa da politologiis instituti), gindra kasnauskiene(vilniusis universitetis saerTaSoriso biznesis skola), slavomir par-ticki (ioane pavle II-s saxelobis lublianas kaTolikuri universiteti),galina savina (xarkovis teqnikuri universiteti), dimitri sorokini (ruse-Tis mecnierebaTa akademiis ekonomikis instituti), darol j. steinli(peperdainis universiteti), aleqs stupnicki (taras SevCenkos saxelobiskievis erovnuli universiteti).

Professors:SCIENTIFIC EDITORIAL COUNCIL

Ramaz Abesadze (Editor-in-chief), Yuri Ananiashvili, Rosetta Asatiani, Givi Bedianashvili,Teimuraz Beridze, Giorgi Berulava, Vakhtang Burduli, Nodar Chitanava, Tina Chkheidze,Revaz Gogokhia, Revaz Gvelesiani, Mikheil Jibuti, Revaz Kakulia, Nodar Khaduri, EterKharaishvili, Alfred Kuratashvili, Murman Kvaratskhelia, Temur Kandelaki, Elguja Mek-vabishvili, Iakob Meskhia, Vladimer Papava (academician), Solomon Pavliashvili, UshangSamadashvili, Roland Sarchimelia, Teimuraz Shengelia, Avtandil Silagadze (academician),Avtandil Sulaberidze.

Assistant Editor-in-chief _ Doctors of economics Mamuka KhuskivadzeExecutive Secretary _ Doctors of economics Tea lazarashvili

FOREIGN MEMBERS OF THE SCIENTIFIC EDITORIAL COUNCIL

Larisa Belinskaia (Vilnius University), Ruslan Grinberg (Institute of Economics of RAS), Si-mone Guercini (University of Florence), Eldar Ismailov (Baku Institute of Social Managementand Political Science), Gindra Kasnauskiene (International Business School of Vilnius Univer-sity), Slavomir Partycki (The John Paul II Catholic University of Lublin), Galina Savina(Kharkiv Technical University), Dmitri Sorokin (Institute of Economics of RAS), Darrol J.Stanley (University of Pepperdine), Oleksiy Stupnitskyy (Taras Shevchenko National Univer-sity of Kyiv), Wolfgang Weng (Technical University of Berlin), Thomas D. Willett (ClaremontGraduate University).

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s a r C e v i - C O N T E N T S

demografia – DEMOGRAPHY

avTandil sulaberiZe, giorgi wulaZe, vladimer sulaberiZe, ninogomelauri – demografiul SemTxvevaTa statistikuri aRricxvisproblemebi saqarTveloSi 5

Avtandil Sulaberidze, Giorgi Tsuladze, Vladimer Sulaberidze, Nino Gomelauri _ Application ofComparative Analysis of Official Polls and Expert Estimations of Indicators in DemographicProjections 17

makroekonomika - MACROECONOMICS

givi lemonjava_ monetaruli politikis roli da amocanebi 26Givi Lemonjava – Monetary Policy: Role and Tasks (Expanded Summary) 35

soflis meurneoba - AGRICULTURE

Tengiz qavTaraZe _ inovaciuri politika aSS-s soflis meurneobaSi dasaqarTveloSi misi gamoyenebis SesaZleblobebi 38Tengiz Kavtaradze – The Usa Policy of Innovation in Agriculture and the Possibilities to Use it inGeorgia (Expanded Summary) 45Tamar lazariaSvili _ subsidirebis programebis efeqtianoba mevenaxeoba-meRvineobaSi 47Tamar Lazariashvili _ Effectiveness of Subsidize Programs in Vinery-Winery 52

sasursaTo usafrTxoeba - FOOD SAFETY

zurab garayaniZe – SimSili _ qarTuli saxelmwifos faruli safrTxe 55Zurab Garakanidze _ Hunger – the Hidden Threat to Georgian Nation (Expanded Summary) 79

ekonometrika -ECONOMETRICSLia Totladze _ Diffusion Index for Georgia: Selection Leading Economic Indicators 83

lia ToTlaZe – difuziuri indeqsi saqarTvelosTvis: winmswrebekonomikur indikatorTa SerCeva (vrceli reziume) 88

magistrantebisa da doqtorantebis samecniero naSromebiSCIENTIFIC WORKS OF UNDERGRADUATES AND DOCTORAL STUDENTS

Айтен Самедзаде _ Некоторые вопросы анализа взаимосвязи между экономическимразвитием и доходами населения 90Aytan Samedzadeh _ Some Questions of Analysis of the Relationship Between EconomicDevelopment and Population’s Income (Expanded Summary) 95aiTan samedzadze _ ekonomikuri ganviTarebis da mosaxleobis SemosavlebsSoris urTierTobis analizis garkveuli sakiTxebi 97(vrceli reziume)giorgi TeTrauli_ speqtruli analizis meTodi ekonomikuri ciklebisSeswavlaSi 100Giorgi Tetrauli _ Method of Spectral Analysis in Research of Economic Cycles (ExpandedSummary) 107giorgi TeTrauli_ Juglaris ciklebi saqarTvelos ekonomikaSi 109

Giorgi Tetrauli _ Juglar Cycles in Economy of Georgia (Expanded Summary) 116

irakli doRonaZe _ monetaruli politikis gavlena saxelmwifo fasianiqaRaldebis bazarze 118

Irakli Doghonadze _ Influence of Monetary Policy on goverment securities market (On theexample of Georgia) (Expanded Summary) 133

4


demografiaDEMOGRAPHY

avTandil sulaberiZeilias saxelmwifo universitetis demografiisa

da sociologiis institutis direqtori,emd, profesori.giorgi wulaZe

amave universitetis profesori.vladimer sulaberiZe

amave institutis mkvlevari,ekonomikis doqtori,

nino gomelauriamave institutis asocirebuli mkvlevari

demografiul SemTxvevaTa statistikuri aRricxvis problemebisaqarTveloSi

reziumeprognozebi ZiriTadad emyareba saxelmwifo statistikis oficia-

lur demografiul maCveneblebs. mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis damigraciis arazusti aRricxvis pirobebSi ki (gansakuTrebiT ganviTare-bad qveynebSi) araswor oficialur informaciaze gaangariSebuli prog-nozebi mniSvnelovani cdomilebebiT xasiaTdeba. Cveni azriT, prognozTagaangariSebisas, sasurvelia, qveynis oficialur statistikasTan erTad,alternativis saxiT, gamoyenebul iqnes mecnieruli gamokvlevis Sede-gebze dafuZnebuli eqspertTaSefasebiTi demografiuli maCveneblebic.

oficialurTan SedarebiT eqspertul SefasebaTa meti sandoobadaadastura saqarTvelos 2014 wlis mosaxleobis aRweram. aRniSnulimiuTiTebs imaze, rom arazusti statitikuri aRricxvis pirobebSi, prog-nozebis Sesrulebisas, oficialuristatistikis da eqspertuliSefase-biTi maCveneblebis SedarebiTi analizis gamoyeneba gaaumjobesebs prog-nozis xarisxs.

sakvanZo sityvebi: demografiuli ststistika, SefasebiTi monacemebi,prognozi, Sobadoma, mokvdaoba, migracia.

Sesavali

mimdinare demografiuli procesebis ganxilvisas, arsebuli ofi-cialuri statistikuri informaciis garda, demografiul procesTa ana-lizisas viyenebT eqspertuli Sefasebis meTodiT gaangariSebul demog-rafiul maCveneblebs, romelic, xSir SemTxvevaSi, gansxvavdeba saqstatisoficialuri monacemebisagan. swored oficialuri statistikuri maCveneb-lebis analizis safuZvelze SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom arsebuli demos-tatistikuri maCveneblebi yovelTvis ar gamoxatavs realur demografiulviTarebas, vinaidan srulad ver xerxdeba demografiul SemTxvevaTaaRricxva.

5


amasTan, demografiul SemTxvevaTa arasruli aRricxva ar warmoad-gens SedarebiT axal, postsabWoTa periodisaTvis damaxasiaTebel movle-nas. igi arsebobda sabWoTa periodSi da, SesaZleblobis farglebSi, aras-ruli aRricxva gamovlinda 1960 wlidan [Anderson, Katus, Silver 1994: 10-11;Anderson, Silver 1986: 712]. amdenad, arasruli demo-statistikuri aRricxvisproblema naSromSi ganixileba 1960 wlidan dRemde da warmodgenilia 1960wlidan demografiuli procesebis oficialuri da SefasebiTi maCveneble-bis SedarebiTi analiziT miRebuli gansxvavebebi.

kvlevis meTodologia

mosaxleobis raodenobisa da asakobriv-sqesobrivi SemadgenlobisgansazRvris sizuste bevrad aris damokidebuli dabadebaTa, gardac-valebaTa da gare migraciis mimdinare aRricxvis srulfasovnebaze.

1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi momxdar cnobil politikur, socia-lur-ekonomikur da sazogadoebriv movlenebs mohyva demografiuli SemTx-vevebisa da migraciis registraciis gauareseba, ris Sedegadac garTuldamosaxleobis raodenobisa da asakobriv-sqesobrivi Semadgenlobis gansazR-vra. aRniSnulidan gamomdinare, oficialuri statistikis paraleluradgaCnda araoficialuri statistika mecnierul Sefaseba-gaangariSebebissaxiT (SemdgomSi Sefaseba), romlis monacemebi mniSvnelovnad gansxvav-deboda da gansxvavdeba saqstatis Sesabamisi monacemebisa da maCveneb-lebisagan.

demostatistikur monacemTa Sefasebisas gamoyenebul iqna demogra-fiuli, epidemiologiuri da, migraciuli gadasvlis Teoriebis safuZ-velze, mocemuli momentisTvis misadagebuli modelebi, gaeros, koul-demenis mokvdaobis modeluri (tipuri) da sxva modeluri cxrilebi daindeqsebi. gaeros eqspertebis, ucxoel da qarTvel mecnierTa [Tsiklauri,Sulaberidze, 2013: 7; World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision: 2013] gaangariSeba,demografiul procesebze moqmed faqtorTa determinaciuli analizi, ag-reTve calkeul wlebSi demografiisa da sociologiuri kvlevis insti-tutis demo-sociologiurigamokvlevebi da sxv.

Cvengan (mecnier-eqspertTagan) gansxvavebiT, saqstats kanonmdeblobiTar aqvs saxelmwifo samsaxurebidan oficialurad miRebuli mimdinarestatistikuri informaciis gadaangariSebis da Sefasebis ufleba. amitom isoficialurad iZleva saxelmwifo samsaxurebis mier oficialurad miwode-buli informaciis krsebsiT monacemebs, rac demografiul viTarebasarazustad warmoaCens.

gansxvavebebi oficialur da SefasebiT (eqspertul)demostatistikur maCvenebelTa Soris

saTanado analizis safuZvelze davadgineT, rom rogorc 1970, ise1979, 1989, 2002 da 2014 wlebis mosaxleobis aRwerebis dros aRricxuliraodenoba ar Seesabameba aRweraTaSoris periodebSi bunebrivi matebisada gare migraciis arsebuli monacemebis jamidan gamomdinare mosaxleo-bis raodenobas [wulaZe, sulaberiZe, maRlaferiZe, mamardaSvili, 2008: 114-131]. sakvlevi periodis masStabidan da statiis moculobidan gamomdi-nare, sakiTxis ukeT warmoCenis mizniT, mas ganvixilavT or periodad _1960-2000 ww. da 2000 wlidan dRemde.

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a) 1960_2000 wlebisaqstatisa da Cven mier gaangariSebuli mosaxleobis raodenobas

Soris arsebuli sxvaoba ZiriTadad gamowveulia bunebrivi moZraobisda migraciis arazusti aRricxvis Sedegad. gaeros eqspertebis Sefa-sebiT, 1960-1965 wlebSi saqarTveloSi saSualod weliwadSi aRuricxavirCeboda 20 aTasamde gardacvlili, xolo arasruli aRricxvis wili40%-s Seadgenda. es ukanaskneli sakmaod maRali iyo, Tumca CamorCebodamxolod Sua aziis yofil sabWoTa respublikebis Sesabamis maCveneb-lebs.

gaeros eqspertTa SefasebiT, gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvasaqarTveloSi ufro meti iyo, vidre Cveni SefasebiT. 1960_1990-ian wleb-Si saqarTveloSi gardacvlilTa arasrulma registraciam saerTo jamSiSeadgina: gaeros eqspertTa SefasebiT _ 215 aTasi (15,4%), xolo CveniSefasebiT _ 165 aTasi (12,2%).

1990-ian wlebSi saqarTveloSi mimdinare politikur, socialur-ekonomikur da sazogadoebriv cvlilebebs statistikis organoebi (ise-ve, rogorc bevri sxva uwyeba) moumzadebeli Sexvda, rasac mohyva ro-gorc gardacvlilTa, ise sxva demografiuli SemTxvevebis statisti-kuri aRricxvis gauareseba. 1990-ian wlebSi, 1970-ian da 1980-ian wlebTanSedarebiT, kidev ufro gaizarda gardacvlilTa arasruli aRricxvisdone.

unda aRiniSnos, rom 2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris SedegebissafuZvelze moxda aRweraTaSorisi (1989 da 2002 ww.) periodis demogra-fiuli maCveneblebis, maT Soris gardacvlilTa raodenobis, gadaangari-Seba. saqstatis monacemebi gardacvlilTa raodenobis Sesaxeb gadaanga-riSebamde (anu registrirebuli) da gadaangariSebis Semdgomi, mniSvne-lovnad gansxvavdeboda erTmaneTisagan. kerZod, gadaangariSebamdelimonacemebiT saqarTveloSi 1990_2000 wlebSi gardacvlilTa raodenoba460,9 aTas kacs Seadgenda, xolo gadaangariSebis Semdeg _ 552,6 aTaskacamde gaizarda. aRsaniSnavia, rom saqstatis gadaangariSebuli monace-mebi gardacvlilTa raodenobis Sesaxeb, garkveuli gansxvavebis miuxe-davad, Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebis msgavsia (560,2 aTasi gardacvlili).

1960_2000 ww. mokvdaobis SefasebiTi monacemebis analizi, saqstatisamave periodis mokvdaobis oficialuri monacemebisgan gansxvavebiT sa-fuZvels iZleva, axleburad gaviazroT rogorc sicocxlis xangrZlivobisevolucia, ise, zogadad, demografiuli gadasvla saqarTveloSi [Anderson,Katus, Silver 1994: 10-11; Anderson, Silver 1986: 712].

saqarTvelo im qveynebs miekuTvneba, romlebisTvisac gare migraciamosaxleobis formirebaSi mniSvnelovan rols TamaSobs. saqme is aris, romsaqarTvelos 1960 wlidan gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldo axasiaTebs.

gansxvavebiT saqstatis oficialuri monacemisgan, SefasebiTi mona-cemebiT 1960_2000 wlebis periodSi, gare migraciis Sedegad, saqarTve-los mosaxleobas daaklda 1404 aTasze meti adamiani.

gansakuTrebiT mniSvnelovani iyo saqarTvelosaTvis 1990-iani wle-bi, rodesac sxvadasxva SefasebiTi monacemiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobamgare migraciis Sedegad gacilebiT meti danaklisi ganicada, vidre wina30-wliani periodis ganmavlobaSi. SefasebiTi monacemebiT, 1990_2000 wle-bis periodSi saqarTvelom, gare migraciis uaryofiTi saldos Sedegad,1989 wlis mosaxleobis raodenobis 19%-mde danaklisi ganicada, anuTiTqmis yoveli mexuTe adamiani wavida qveynidan.

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aTasi

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

amdenad, zemoaRniSnulidan gamomdinare, SeiZleba davaskvnaT, rom1960_2000 wlebis periodSi, oficialuri monacemebi saqarTvelos mosax-leobis raodenobis Sesaxeb, maT Soris aRwerebisas, arazusti da nakle-bad sando iyo. aRwerebisas mosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba gadametebiTiyo warmodgenili (1979 wlis garda).

gardacvlilTa da gare migraciis arasruli aRricxvis gaTvalis-winebiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis saerTo raodenoba 1960_2000 wlebSi,Cveni SefasebiT, gansxvavebulia saqarTvelos mosaxleobis im raodeno-bisagan, romelic statistikis departamentis mier aris warmodgenili(gadaangariSebamde). amaze naTel warmodgenas iZleva qvemoT moyvanilidiagrama 1.

5500

5000

sd

Sefaseba

4500

4000

diagrama 1. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba (aTasi) 1960_2000wlebSi saqstatis (gadaangariSebamde) da Cveni SefasebiTi monacemebismixedviT [wulaZe... 2008: 7-15].

.

rogorc vxedavT, saqstatisa da Cven mier gaangariSebuli mosaxle-obis raodenobas Soris arsebuli sxvaoba 1960 wlidan sul izrdeba.1970 wels es sxvaoba 107 aTasi iyo, 1980 wels _ 157 aTasi, 1990 wels _236 aTasi, xolo 2000 wels sxvaobam 1028 aTasi Seadgina. amrigad, CveniSefasebiT, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenoba 1960_2000 wlebSi yo-velTvis naklebi iyo saqstatis Sesabamis monacemebTan SedarebiT. amas-Tan, Cveni SefasebiT, 1992 wlidan saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobaganuxrelad mcirdeba, maSin, rodesac saqstatis gaangariSebebi mosax-leobis raodenobis zrdas asaxavs.

moyvanili diagrama 1 aSkarad gviCvenebs, rom saqarTveloSi1960_1991 wlebSi, marTalia sxvadasxva sididiT, magram mosaxleobis ma-tebas hqonda adgili, romelic 1992 wlidan klebiT Seicvala. saqarTve-los mosaxleobis raodenoba 1960_1991 wlebSi gaizarda 1099 aTasiT,xolo 1992_2000 wlebSi Semcirda 882 aTasiT. mosaxleobis saerTo mate-baSi bunebriv da meqanikur moZraobas (migracias) gansxvavebuli wilihqonda (ix. diagrama 2).

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diagrama 2. mosaxleobis saerTo matebis (klebis) komponentebisaqarTveloSi 1960-2000 wlebSi, aTasobiT (gare migracia: 1960-1989 ww. _sd, 1990-2000 _ SefasebiTi monacemebiT; bunebrivi mateba _ SefasebiTi

monacemebiT) [wulaZe... 2008: 61-68; Tsuladze, 2015: 47-48, 317; Population ofGeorgia. Statistical collection, 2003: 67].

mTeli gansaxilveli periodis ganmavlobaSi, miuxedavad imisa, rombunebrivi mateba mcirdeboda da periodis bolosaTvis nulovan sidi-demde davida, misi mniSvneloba mainc dadebiTi iyo, maSin, rodesac garemigraciis saldo uaryofiTi iyo.

1992 wlamde mosaxleobis bunebrivi matebis sididis metoba garemigraciis uaryofiT saldoze ZiriTadad gansazRvravda saqarTvelosmosaxleobis saerTo matebas. 1992 wlidan ki, erTi mxriv, bunebrivi mate-bis mkveTrma Semcirebam da, meore mxriv, emigraciis intensivobis mniSv-nelovanma zrdam, momdevno wlebSi ganapiroba saqarTvelos mosaxleo-bis raodenobis mniSvnelovani kleba.

amdenad, saqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobrivi formirebis Ziri-Tad komponents 1960_1991 wlebSi bunebrivi mateba, xolo 1992_2000 wleb-Si gare migracia warmoadgenda.

b. 2000_2015 ww.

rodesac 2000-ian wlebze vmsjelobT, pirvel rigSi aRsaniSnavia2002 wels (17 ianvris mdgomareobiT) Catarebuli saqarTvelos mosaxle-obis pirveli sayovelTao erovnuli aRwera. misi Sedegebi specialis-tebis mier araerTgvarovnad aris Sefasebuli.

upirveles yovlisa, aRniSnuli kritikuli damokidebuleba efuZneba

“emigrantTa saaRwero furcels~, romelmac, praqtikulad, ver an cudad~imuSava~. magaliTad, 2002 wlis aRweris Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rom

9


emigrantebis raodenoba saqarTvelodan Seadgens 113,7 aTass [saqarTvelosmosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli erovnuli aRweris Sedegebi, 2003]. imavedros, statistikis departamentis gaangariSebiT, gare migraciisuaryofiTma saldom saqarTvelosaTvis aRweraTaSoris periodSi (1989_2001

ww.) daaxloebiT 930 aTasi Seadgina [Population of Georgia. Statistical collection,2003: 67].

2002 wlis mosaxleobis aRweris Sedegebidan gamomdinareobs, rommudmivi mosaxleobis raodenoba 4371,5 aTasis, xolo faqtobrivi mosax-leobis raodenoba _ 4355,7 aTasis toli iyo, anu sxvaoba maT SorisSeadgenda 15,8 aTass.

diagrama 3. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis cvlileba 2001_2014 ww. (1 ianvrismdgomareobiT) [wulaZe... 2008: 68-69; Tsuladze, 2015: 17]

moyvanili diagramidan Cans, rom 2002 wels mosaxleobis Sefase-biTi raodenoba naklebi iyo mudmivze 370,5 aTasiT. 2003_2014 wlebSiaRniSnuli sxvaoba izrdeboda da 2014 wlis 1 ianvrisTvis miaRwia 729,8aTass, anu 16,3%-s. amasTan, mocemul wlebSi, saqstatis monacemebiT,mosaxleobis raodenoba 4 milionis farglebSia da 2008 wlidan zrdistendenciiT xasiaTdeba. misgan gansxvavebiT, SefasebiTi monacemebiT 2002wlidan igi 4 milions qvemoTaa da klebis tendencia gaaCnia. mosaxleo-bis formirebis ori komponentidan saqstatis SemTxvevaSi migraciulisaldo uaryofiT rols ar TamaSobs, misgan gansxvavebiT, SefasebiTimaCveneblebiT, mosaxleobis raodenobis cvlilebis gadamwyvet faqto-rad ZiriTad isev gare migracia gvevlineba, rac naTlad Cans qvemoTmoyvanili diagrama 4-dan.

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diagrama 4. mosaxleobis saerTo matebis (klebis) komponentebisaqarTveloSi 2001_2014 ww., (aTasi) [Tsuladze, 2015: 47-48, 317]

saqstatis da SefasebiTi maCveneblebis aseTi kontrastuli gansxva-veba isev da isev mosaxleobis demostatistikuri aRricxvis probleme-bidan gamomdinareobs. aRniSnulTan dakavSirebiT, mizanSewonilad migvaC-nia cal-calke gavaanalizoT da SevadaroT rogorc mosaxleobis buneb-rivi matebis komponentebis dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa raodenobis,aseve migraciuli saldos saqstatis da Cveni SefasebiTi maCveneblebi.

diagrama 5. cocxlad dabadebulTadinamika 2000_2014 ww. [Tsuladze, 2015: 48]

moyvanili diagrama 5-dan Cans, rom 2007_2009 wlebSi, saqstatisoficialur da Cveni SefasebiT maCveneblebSi dabadebulTa raodenobaerTmaneTis msgavsia, rac metyvelebs am wlebSi gamosworebul aRricxvaze.am wlebisgan gansxvavebiT, wina da momdevno wlebis sxvaoba ki mianiSnebsdabadebulTa arasrul aRricxvaze.

11


diagrama 6. gardacvlilTaraodenobis dinamika 2000_2014 ww.

[Tsuladze, 2015: 48]

cocxlad dabadebulTa aRricxvisgan gansxvavebiT, 2000_2014 wleb-Si ufro metad aris darRveuli gardacvlilTa aRricxva, gansakuTre-biT 2004_2010 wlebSi, rasac naTlad gviCvenebs diagrama 6.

dabadebulTa da gardacvlilTa raodenobis dinamikidan gamom-dinare, 2002_2014 wlebSi mosaxleobis bunebrivma matebam saqstatismonacemebiT Seadgina 100,0 aTasi kaci, xolo SefasebiT _71,4 aTasi kaci.

rogorc diagrama 7-dan Cans, mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobiskomponentTa aRricxvasTan SedarebiT ufro cudadaa saqme gare migra-ciis aRricxvaSi. 2002_2014 wlebSi, gare migraciuli saldo, arasworiaRricxvis gamo, saqsatatis monacemebiT dadebiTi iyo da 24 aTasiSeadgina, xolo SefasebiT, uaryofiTi da d 314 aTas kaci Seadgenda.

diagrama 7. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis gare migraciis saldo 2002_2014ww. [wulaZe, sulaberiZe, maRlaferiZe, mamardaSvili, 2008: 103-106;wulaZe, 2015: 317].

rogorc kvlevis meTodologiaSi aRvniSneT, Cvengan (mecnier-eqspert-Tagan) gansxvavebiT, saqstats kanonmdeblobiT ar aqvs saxelmwifo samsaxu-

12


rebidan oficialurad miRebuli midinare statitikuri informaciis gada-mowmebis, gadaangariSebis da Sefasebis ufleba. swored amis Sedegia,rom oficialur statistikaSi ar aRiricxeba samSobiaros gareT, binaSidabadebulebi, xolo gardacvlilTa (gansakuTrebiT CvilTa) SemTxveva-Si _ registraciis gverdis avliT dakrZalulebi.

saqme isaa, rom, rogorc sxvadasxva wlebis Cveni da gaeros eqsper-tebis gamokvlevebi gviCvenebs, saqarTvelos mTianeTis da qvemo qarTlissoflebSi jer kidev aRiniSneba binaze mSobiaroba. garda amisa, saqar-TveloSi mcxovreb azerbaijanelTa nawili mSobiarobda da mSobiarobsucxoeTSi. 2008 wlis saqarTvelo-ruseTis omamde, osTa da qarTvelTaSoris arsebuli mSvidobiani urTierTobis dros, cxinvalis regionTanmcxovrebi mosaxleoba samSobiarod gadadioda cxinvalSi. aRniSnuliZiriTadad gamowveuli iyo mosaxleobis mZime socialur-ekonomikurimdgomareobiT da saqarTvelSi mSobiarobis siZviriT. Sesabamisad, daba-debulTa es nawili ar registrirdeboda da ar aRiricxeboda saqstatisdabadebulTa krebsiT maCveneblSi.

gardacvlilTa aRricxvis problemas ZiriTadad arTulebda daarTulebs is, rom saqarTvelos zogierT raionsa da sofelSi, miuxe-davad adgilobriv xelisufalTa administraciuli jarimisa, gardacv-lilis dakrZalvisTvis miwis gamosayofad xSirad ar iTxovdnen gar-dacvlilis rgistraciis mowmobas. garda amisa, TviT ojaxi, gardacvli-ls registraciis gareSe dasaflavebisTvis, sasaflaoze miwis gamoyo-fis yovelgvari nebarTvis gareSe asaflavebda da asaflavebs. gardaamisa, ojaxi mZime socialur-ekonomikuri pirobebidan gamomdinare, gar-dacvlilis pensiis SenarCunebis mizniT, gardacvlil pensioners gvianan saerTod ar atarebs registraciaSi da sxv.

zemoT moyvanili mizezebi da bunebrivi moZraobis aRricxvis admi-nistrirebis dabali done da kultura Sesabamisad arTulebs zust aR-ricxvas, raSic saqstats ver davadanaSaulebT.

mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobisgan gansxvavebiT, migraciis ara-zusti aRricxva ZiriTadad araswori meTodologiis Sedegia. kerZod,sazRvris dacvis departamenti 2012 wlamde aRricxavda mxolod vizi-torebs da Sesabamisi statistikuri bazebis ararsebobis gamo ar xerx-deboda vizitorTa yofnis xangrZlivobis da sxva parametrebis gamo-yofa, rac SesaZleblobas miscemda saqstats, sworad aRericxa saerTa-Soriso migracia. 2012 wlidan gare migraciis aRricxvis saqstatis Se-muSavebulma axlma meTodikam mniSvnelovnad Seamcira gare migraciisarazusti aRricxva da, imedia, kidev ufro gaumjobesdeba. rac Seexebaqveynis Siga migracias, sabWoTa periodis (Tumca arc maSin iyo zustiaRricxva) Semdeg saerTod moiSala, ramdenadac mosaxleobis qveynisSigniT gadaadgileba saerTod aRar kontroldeba da Sesabamisad araRiricxeba.

13


wlebiSobadoba mokvdaoba

CvilTamokvdaoba

migracia

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

5,1 4,0 - 23,4

6,1 5,0 5,0 28,6

5,0 5,8 5,2 672,7

7,5 18,8 25,5 1398,5

4,6 15,4 52,7 137,2

1,5 18,3 67,7 27,1

0,8 17,0 23,3 134,2

1,0 7,7 37,4 1600,0

1,5 11,0 85,4 1828,8

4,2 7,3 70,7 1802,0

10,5 2,8 68,0 0.0

4,0 3,8 64,0 84,3

1,6 10,2 64,3 86,2

cxrilimosaxleobis arasruli aRricxvis done (%) bunebrivi moZraobis

komponentebisda gare migraciis saqstatis maCveneblebSi 2002_2014 ww.

yovelive zemoTqmulidan gamomdinare, rogorc cxrili gviCvenebs,mosaxleobis bolo or aRweraTaSoris periodSi (2002_2014) saqstatisa daCvens SefasebiT maCveneblebs Soris sxvaobidan gamomdinare, dabadebulTaarazusti aRricxvis done calkeul wlebSi dabali iyo (2010 wlis garda),xolo gardacvlilTa SemTxvevaSi (2012_2013 wlebis garda) maRali. maTTanSedarebiT CvilTa mokvdaobis arazusti aRricxvis sakmaod maRali doneSesamCnevad zrdis dabadebisas mosaxleobis mosalodneli sicocxlismaCveneblebs, romelic SefasebiTi maCveneblebiT saqstatisgan gansxvavebiTdabalia. mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraobis aRricxvisgan gansxvavebiT,fantastikurad maRalia gare migraciis arazusti aRricxvis done, rac 2005wels 14-jer, 2009 w. 16-jer, xolo 2010 da 2011 wlebSi 18-jer aRematebodarealur dones.

gasakviri aRar unda iyos saqstatis da Cveni SefasebiT, mosaxleobisor aRweraTaSoris periodSi 2002-2014 ww. mosaxleobis yovelwliurraodenobas Soris sxvaoba. diagrama 4-is Sesabamisad, 2015 wlis 1 ianvri-sTvis saqarTvelos mosaxleoba unda yofiliyo 4496 aTasi kaci (gaerosmonacemiT 4 milioni kaci). 2014 wlis 5 noembris mosaxleobis aRweris Sede-gad ki dafiqsirda 3730 aTasi kaci, anu 766 aTasi kaciT (17%-iT) naklebi. amTvalsazrisiT bevrad ufro zusti aRmoCnda eqspertuli SefasebiTgaangariSebuli maCveneblebi, romlis Tanaxmadac, 2015 wlis 1 ianvrisTvismosaxleobis raodenoba prognoziT unda yofiliyo 3758 aTasi kaci darealurad 3756 aTasi Seadgina. gansxvaveba mxolod 2000 kacia (0,1%).

saqstatis 2002-2914 wlebis mosaxleobis aRweraTaSorisi periodisTundac erTi, 2014 wlis demografiul monacemTa gadaangariSeba iZlevamniSvnelovan cvlilebebs. Tu saqstatis Sobadobis maCvenebeli 2013 welsSeadgenda 12,9 h-s (promile d 1000 kacze gaangariSebiT), 2014 wels man 16,3hSeadgina, nacvlad 13,5h-sa. asevea mokvdaobis maCvenebelTa SemTxvevaSic. Tu

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saqstatis 2013 wels mokvdaobis maCveenebeli Seadgenda 12,9h-s, 2014 wels man13,2h Seadgina, nacvlad 10,9h-sa. sxvaoba 2,3h sakmaod didia.

am aspeqtiT, sainteresoa mosaxleobis sicocxlis mosalodnelixangrZlivobis maCveneblebi dabadebisas. Tu es maCvenebeli saqstatis mona-cemiT orive sqesisTvis 2013 wels Seadgenda 75,2 wels, 2014 wlis gadaanga-riSebiT igi Seadgens 72,9 wels, anu 2,3 wliT naklebs. amasTan, erT weli-wadSi, mamakacebisTvis igi Secirda 2,1 wliT da Seadgina 68,7 weli, xoloqalebisTvis gaizarda 2,2 wliT da Seadgens 77,2 wels.

daskvna

amdenad, mosaxleobis 2014 wlis aRweram daadastura arazustiaRricxvis pirobebSi mimdinare statistikuri aRricxvis arasaimedooba.Sesabamisad, sxvadasxva saerTaSoriso organizaciebis mier masze dafuZne-buli prognozebic mcdaria. amitom, demografiuli prognozirebisas sa-survelia, Tu mizanSewonili ara, eqspertuli SefasebiT alternatiuliprognozebis gaangariSebac lokalur doneze. magaliTad, ramdenadacsaqarTvelos mosaxleobis raodenobaze Sesrulebuli sxvadasxva prog-nozi emyareba oficialuri statistikis araswor demografiul maCveneb-lebs, amitom misgan gansxvavebiT, qarTvel eqspertTa SefasebiTi maCve-neblebiT 2015 wlisTvis Sesrulebuli mosaxleobis raodenobis prognozibevrad axlosaa 2014 wlis mosaxleobis aRweriT dafiqsirebul rao-denobasTan (3713,8 aTasi kaci). kerZod, 2015 wlisTvis sxvadasxva prognoziT(saSualo varianti) saqarTvelos mosaxleoba unda yofiliyo: gaerosprognoziT d 4225 aTasi kaci, msoflio bankis d 4078 aTasi, aSS mosax-leobis aRweris biuros d 4525 aTasi, xolo g. wulaZis mier SefasebiTimonacemebiT gaangariSebuli prognoziT d 3905 aTasi kaci [wulaZe, 2013: 35].

gamoyenebuli literatura

1. gomelauri n., 2014, ojaxis alternatiuli formebi da registri-rebuli qorwinebis gareSe Sobadoba. krebuli: “demografiisa dasociologiis problemebi”. Tbilisi, gv. 76-87.

2. saqarTvelos mosaxleoba, 2003, statistikuri krebuli. saqarTve-los statistikis departamenti. Tbilisi. gv.67 .

3. saqarTvelos mosaxleobis 2002 wlis pirveli erovnuli aRwerisSedegebi, 2003, naw. 1, saqstati. Tbilisi.

4. sulaberiZe a., 2007, fiqrebi qarTul ojaxze da demografiaze.Tbilisi.

5. wulaZe g., sulaberiZe a., maRlaferiZe n., mamardaSvili g., 2008.saqarTvelos demografiuli ganviTareba: guSin, dRes, xval. Tbi-lisi: ilia WavWavaZis saxelmwifo universiteti. UNFPA

6. wulaZe g., 2011, msoflios demografiuli ganviTareba (1950_2050) t.II. Tbilisi, ilias saxelmwifo universiteti. gv. 589-592.

7. wulaZe g., 2013, saqarTvelos demografiuli perspeqtivebi:2015_2030 ww. Tbilisi.

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8. Anderson B.A., Katus K., and Silver B.D., 1994, Developments and Prospects forPopulation Statistics in Countries of the Former Soviet Union. Population Index60(1): 4-20. Doi: 10.2307/3645322.

9. Anderson B.A. and Silver B.D., 1986, Infant mortality in the Soviet Union: Regionaldifferences and measurement issues. Population and Developments Review 12(4):705-738. Doi: 10.2307/19734332.

10. Anderson B.A. and Silver B.D., 1989, The Changing Shape of Soviet Mortality,1958-1985: An Evaluation of Old and New Evidence. Population Studies 43(2): 243-265. Doi: 10.1080/0032472031000144106.

11. http://esa.un.org; http://web.worldbank.org; www.census.gov; World PopulationProspects: The 2010 Revision; http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

12. Population Situation Analysis (PSA). Georgia http://www.demographic-research.org/Volumes/Vol22/23

13. Sulaberidze A., 2008, Distored migration terms: cui bono? The CaucasusGlobalization. Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies. V. 2. Issue 1.Sweden. p. 82.

14. Tsuladze G., Maglaperidze N., 2001, Population Prospects of Georgia. Tbilisi: RTIProject.

15. Tsuladze G., Maglaperidze N., Vadachkoria A., 2002, Demographic Yearbook ofGeorgia 2001. Tbilisi. Scientific Publishing Centre. GCL.

16. Tsuladze G., Maglaperidze N., Vadachkoria A., 2003, Population Prospects ofGeorgia. 2003 Revision. UNFPA, Tbilisi.

17. Tsiklauri Sh. & Sulaberidze A.V., 2013, Qualitative and methodological aspects ofpopulation projections in Georgia. Georgian Population Prospects: 1950-2050.EUROSTAT international symposium “Demographic projections”. Rome. Italy.http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/Stats/documents/ece/ge.11./2013/wp7.1.pdf

18. United Nations, 2013, World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision. New York,United Nations Population Division, UNDESA.

16


Avtandil SulaberidzeDirector of Institute of Demography and Sociology

Ilia State University, Professor, Doctor of economic sciencesGiorgi Tsuladze

Researcher of Institute of Demography and SociologyIlia State University, Professor, Doctor of historical sciences

Vladimer SulaberidzeResearcher of Institute of Demography and Sociology

Ilia State University, Doctor of EconomicsNino Gomelauri

Associate researcher of Institute of Demographyand Sociology Ilia State University

APPLICATION OF COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF OFFICIAL POLLS ANDEXPERT ESTIMATIONS OF INDICATORS IN DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS

SummaryProjections are generally based on official demographic polls of national statistics. The

projections (especially in developing countries) that are based on inexact statisticalinformation of expected natural movement and migration of the population have often someinaccuracies.

In this regard, we argue that is preferably to have an evidence based expert assessmentas an alternative measure to the official census while doing projections.

Considering the example of Georgian census 2014, it can be said that expertassessments were more accurate. This means that in case of inexact projections, comparativeanalysis of official statistics and experts assessments will ensure enhanced and more accurateprojections.

Key words: demographic statistic, evaluative data, birth rate, mortality rate, indicator ofmigration.

Introduction

During review of current demographic processes in Georgia, besides analysis of officialstatistical data, the evaluation method is used, which often differs from official statistical data.The official statistical data analysis leads to the conclusion that the demo-statistical data do notalways reflect the real situation, since cases of demographic reports was not and is not fullyconducted.

In addition, the analysis revealed that the inaccurate registration of demographic reports,does not constitute the phenomenon of relatively new, post-soviet period. It existed in post-soviet times and within possibility, inaccurate demographic registrations were identified since1960 [Anderson, Katus, Silver 1994: 10-11; Anderson, Silver 1986: 712].

Inaccurate registration of demographic reports were characteristic of previous period,thus the problem of inaccurate demo-statistical registration will be discussed since 1960.

Problems of inaccurate registration generally is and was related to registration of death,however, in some period, an inaccurate registration also affected birth registration, butinternational migration in terms of accounting is in the worst condition.

Thus in this paper, differences between official and comparative analysis ofdemographic processes since 1960 year are presented.

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Methodology of research

Accuracy of number of population and age composition is mainly depended on currentcomplete registration of birth, death and international migration.

In 1990, known political, social, economic and public events caused deterioration ofregistration of demographic data and migration, as a result it made difficult to determinepopulation age-sex structure and number of population. Based on the above with officialstatistics appeared unofficial statistics, in the scientific calculations, the data significantlydiffers from indicators and data of Georgian National statistics office.

During evaluation of demo-statistic data, based on the development of appropriatemodels for the moment, there was used demographic, epidemiological and migratory transitiontheories, Cole indexes. UN experts, foreign and Georgian Scientists calculations, determinantanalysis of affecting factors of demographic processes, as well as some of the traces of theInstitute of Demography and sociology demo-sociological studies and etc. [Tsiklauri,Sulaberidze, 2013: 7; World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision: 2013].

Unlike us, National statistics office, do not have a right to recalculate and assess currentofficial statistical information given by official offices. Because of this, National StatisticsOffices gives collective data of the information provided by official offices which inaccuratelyshows demographic situation.

Difference between official and estimated demo-static data

Based on proper analysis we estimated that number of population counted duringpopulation census made in 1970 as well as In 1979, 1989, 2002 and 2014 does not fit numberof population of natural movement and emigration between periods of census [Tsuladze,Sulaberidze, Maglaperidze, Mamardashvili, 2008: 114-131]. The scale of the study period, andthe quantity of the article, in order to highlight the issue, consider two periods from 1960 to2000 and since 2000.

a) 1960-2000Reason of the Difference the number of population calculated by National center of

statistic and by us, is inaccurate registration of natural movement and migration. According toUN experts, in 1960-1965 years 20 thousand dead person remained unrecorded, while part ofthe inaccurate registration was 40%. The latter was quite high, but lower than indicators offormer soviet republics of Central Asia.

As UN experts, as well as our evaluation shows that during discussed period (1960-2000 years) there was an incomplete registration of deaths. According to UN experts,incomplete registration of deaths was higher than our estimations showed. In 1960-1990 yearsincomplete registration of death in Georgia in overall was: according to UN expert estimation –125 thousand (15.4%), according to our estimations – 165 thousand (12.2%).

In 1990 years, Statistical agencies (as well as many other agencies) meet unprepared topolitical, social-economic and public changes, which caused deterioration of statisticalregistration of death as well as other demographic reports. In 1990 years level of incompleteregistration of death increased compared to 1980 and 1970 years.

It is remarkable that, results of population registration in 2002, caused recalculation ofdemographic indicators of periods between census (1989 and 2002 years), among thisrecalculation of number of death.

National center of statistic’s data of number of death was different before and afterrecalculation. Their recalculated data about number of death, despite of some differences, issimilar to our estimated data. According to data before recalculation, in 1990-2000 years, in

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Georgia died 460,9 thousand person, and according to recalculated data died – 552,6 thousand.At this time, according to our estimated data, died 560,2 thousand.

Estimated analysis of death rate data of 1960-2000 years, in contrast to the data of thesame time of national statistic center, gives the reason to understand newly, as the evolution oflife expectancy, as well as the general demographic transition in Georgia [Anderson, Katus,Silver 1994: 10-11; Anderson, Silver 1986: 712].

Georgia is among the countries, in which international migration plays an important rolein the formation of the population. The point is that the emigration since 1960 is characterizedby a negative balance.

Unlike to National Statistic Center data, estimated data for the period of 1960-2000years, as a result of emigration, the population of Georgia reduced by more than 1404 thousandperson.

The most important for Georgian was 1990 years, when according to different estimateddata, as a result of international migration of population is much more damaged, rather than theprevious 30-year period.

According to estimated data in 1990-2000 years, as a result of negative balance ofemigration, Georgia has suffered a 19% loss of population of 1989 year, this means that almostevery fifth person has left the country.

Thus, we can make the conclusion that over the 1960-2000 period, official data on thenumber of population, including the census, was inaccurate and unreliable. During Populationcensus, the total population was excessive (except 1979 year).

Foresee of incomplete accounting of the dead and out-migration of total population, in1960-2000 years, according to our estimates, is different from the number of population ofGeorgian, which is provided by National statistic center of Georgia(before recalculation).

The figure below gives a clear picture 1.

Figure 1. Number of population according to Geostat and our estimations(thousand) 1960-2000 [Tsuladze... 2008: 7-15]

As we can see, difference between our estimations of number of population and nationalstatistic centers estimation increases since 1960 year. In 1970 year his difference was 107thousand, in 1980 year – 157 thousand, in 1990 year – 236 thousand, and in 2000 – 1028thousand. So, according to our estimation number of population of Georgian in 1960-2000years was always less, compared to data of department of statistics. With this, according to out

19


estimations, since 1992 year number of population of Georgia decreases, while according todepartment of statistic there is an increase of number of population in Georgia.

The figure 1 clearly shows that in 1960-1991 years in Georgia, although a variety ofsize, but the population growth has taken place, which since 1992 has changed the decrease.Number of population of Georgia in 1960-1991 years increased by 1099 thousand, and in1992-2000 years decreased by 882 thousand. In total population increase natural andmechanical movement (migration) had different part (see figure 2).

Figure 2. Components of increase (decrease) of population in Georgia 1960-2000 years.(Thousands) Net-migration: 1960-1989 (Geostat); 1990-2000 (our estimation); Naturalincrease-our estimated data [Tsuladze... 2008: 61-68; Tsuladze, 2015: 47-48, 317;Population of Georgia. Statistical collection, 2003: 67].

During discussed period of time even though there was reduction of natural increase andit reduced to zero point, its’ importance was positive while balance of emigration was negative.

Before 1992 year balance of natural increase was higher compared to negative net-migration, this was the reason of general increase in population of Georgia. From 1992 year,On the one hand, the sharp decline in natural growth, and on the other hand, increase of out-migration, in the following years led to a significant decrease of the population.

Thus, the main component of quantitative formation of population of Georgia wasnatural growth in 1960-1991 years, and international migration in 1991-2000 years.

b) 2000-2014When we are discussing 2000 years, first of all remarkable is population census made in

2002 year. Its results are evaluated differently by specialists.First of all this critical attitude is based on census papers of immigrants, which did not

work or worked bad. For example, the 2002 census shows that the number of emigrants fromGeorgia is 113.7 thousand [First National Census Results of Georgian Population in 2002,2003:]. The same time the Department of Statistics estimated the negative net-migration, forthe period of time before and after census, was approximately 930 thousand [Population ofGeorgia. Statistical collection, 2003: 67].2002 census results show that the permanent population was 4371,5 thousand, while the actualpopulation was 4355,7 thousand, difference between them was 15,8 thousand.

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Figure 3. Change of population of Georgia 2000-2014 (1st January). [Tsuladze... 2008: 68-69; Tsuladze, 2015: 17]

Figure shows, that in 2002, number of evaluated population was 370.5 thousand compared toconstant population. In 2003-2014 this difference was growing and for 1st January of 2014 yearit reached 729,8 thousand, i.e. 16,3%. At the same time, the population is 4 million accordingto the data of the National Statistics Office and from 2008 year it is characterized by tendencyof growth. In contrast, the evaluation data from 2002 it is below 4 million and has a reductiontendency. From two components of formation, in case of Geostat net-migration does not haveany negative role, in contrast, according to data evaluation, key factor of change in number ofpopulation, mostly is international migration, which is clearly shown by the figure 4.

Figure 4. Total population increase (decrease) components in Georgia 2001-2014.(Thousand) [Tsuladze, 2015: 47-48, 317]

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Reason of such contrasting difference between National Statistic office and evaluativeindicators is problem of demo-statistic census of population. it is reasonable to compare andanalyze separately, as components of natural increase, number of death and birth, as well asmigration balance according to our and National Statistic office indicators.

Figure 5. The dynamics of the number of birth in 2000-2014 [Tsuladze, 2015: 48]

This figure 5 shows that, in 2007-2009 years, according to National Statistic Office andour estimation number of birth is similar, which demonstrates improvement of registrationsystem during these years. In contrast to these years, difference in previous and following yearsdemonstrates the incomplete registration of birth.

Figure 6. The dynamics of the number of deaths in 2000-2014 [Tsuladze, 2015: 48]

Unlike the recording of live births, in the period 2000-2014 accounting of death is moreviolated, particularly in the years 2004-2010, which is clearly shown in figure 6.

From dynamics of birth and death, in 2002-2014 natural growth data according toNational Statistic Office was 100,000 person, while estimations showed that it was 71.4thousand person.

22


As figure 7 shows, compared to accounting of population natural movementcomponents, accounting of international migration is in rather bad situation. in 2002-2014years, net-migration, because of incorrect accounting, according to national Statistic office datawas positive and it was 24 thousand, while according to estimations it was negative and its was-314 thousand person.

Figure 7. Net-migration of population of Georgia in 2002-2014 years [Tsuladze... 2008:103-106; Tsuladze, 2015: 317]

As we mentioned in methodology of research, National Statistic Office is not legallyentitled to make verification of current statistical information obtained officially from stateoffices. As a result, in official statistics, children born outside the maternity hospital, inapartments, and in case of death (especially in infants) funerals of bypassing registration arenot recorded.

The point is that, as our and UN experts researches of different years show, in Georgia,especially in the mountains and in villages of Kvemo Kartli home deliveries are still frequent.In addition part of the Azerbaijanis living in Georgia are giving birth in Azerbaijan. BeforeGeorgia-Russia war in 2008, during peaceful relationship between Ossetians and Georgians,population living near Tskhinvali region were going to Tskhinvali for childbirth. This wasmainly due to the difficult socio-economic situation in Georgia and expensive childbirth inGeorgia. This part is not registered and therefore not recorded in the National Statistic Officeindicators of collective birth rate.

Problem of death accounting is complicated by the fact that some of the villages andregions often don’t ask the certificate of death registration for the burial ground. In addition,because of socio-economic conditions of family, in order to maintain pension of deceased,sometimes families don’t make registration of death or makes registration of death lately or etc.

Unlike to natural movement of the population, mainly reason of the inaccurateaccounting of migration is wrong methodology. In particular, Border Defense Departmentregistered only visitors, and because of lack of the statistical bases it was not possible toseparate duration and other parameters, which would allow National Statistical office toaccount international migration properly. From 2012 year new methodology of internationalmigration accounting developed by National Statistic Office significantly reduced inaccurateaccounting of emigration and we hope it will improve. As for internal migration, generallycollapsed after the Soviet period, movement of population much inside the country is no longercontrolled and therefore no longer enrolled.

23


Table the level of incomplete accounting of population (%) in components of naturalmovement and in international migration indicators of National Statistic Office in 2002-

2014

Live births Death Infantmortality Net-migration

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

5,1 4,0 - 23,4

6,1 5,0 5,0 28,6

5,0 5,8 5,2 672,7

7,5 18,8 25,5 1398,5

4,6 15,4 52,7 137,2

1,5 18,3 67,7 27,1

0,8 17,0 23,3 134,2

1,0 7,7 37,4 1600,0

1,5 11,0 85,4 1828,8

4,2 7,3 70,7 1802,0

10,5 2,8 68,0 0.0

4,0 3,8 64,0 84,3

1,6 10,2 64,3 86,2

Based on the above, as table shows, during last 2 period between censuses, according todifferences between National Statistic Office and our estimations, level of inaccurateregistration of birth was lower (2010) in some years, while in case of deceased persons it washigh (except 2012). Compared to them, quite high level of inaccurate accounting of infantmortality level, significantly increases, expected life of population in time of birth, which,according to evaluation index, in contrast to National Statistic Office index, is lower. unlike toaccounting of natural movement of population, inaccurate accounting level of emigration isvery high, which in 2005,14 times, 16 times in 2009, 2010 and 2011 and 18 times higher thanthe actual level.

Difference between our and National Statistic Office estimations of annual differencebetween the number of population is not surprise anymore between two period betweencensuses of 2002-2014 years. According to figure 4, population of Georgia for 1st January of2015 year must have been 4496 thousand person, but 2014 census showed that population was3730 thousand, 766 thousand less (-17%). In this regard, the experts' estimations indicatorswere much more accurate, which states that by January 1, 2015 the population is projected tobe 3768 persons and actually amounted 3756. Difference is only 2000 person (0,1%).

National Statistic offices’, period between censuses 2002-2014, even one, restateddemographic data of 2014 year gives significant changes. If According to the NationalStatistic office’s 2013 birth rate was 12,9‰ and 16.3‰ respectively in 2014, instead of the13,5‰. It is same in case of death rate. If according to National Statistic office in 2013 deathrate was 12,9‰, in 2014 it was 13.2‰ instead of 10.9‰. Difference 2.3‰ is quite high.

In this aspect, indicators of life expectancy at birth is interesting. II these indicatorsaccording to National Statistic office data for both sex in 2013 was 75,2 year, in 2014calculations it is 72,9 year, 2,3 years less. With this, in one year, for men it reduced by 2,1year and it was 68,7 year, and for women it reduced by 2,2 year and it is 77,2 year.

24


ConclusionThus, the 2014 census confirmed in conditions of inaccurate accounting unreliability of

official statistics. Because of this based projections are wrong. Therefore, while predicting thedemographic projections, it is desirable, if not feasible, the calculation of expert estimations ofalternative projections on the local level. For example, as the population of the various pointsof the forecast is based on official statistics in the wrong demographic features, so unlike theGeorgian experts (G. Tsuladze) in estimations rates for 2015 the forecast is much closer to therecorded number of 2014 population census. in particular for 2015 year population of Georgianaccording to UN projections must have been – 4225 thousand, World Bank – 4078 thousand,Bureau of USA population census – 4525 thousand, and according to G. Tsuladze estimationsprojections 3905 thousand, which is much more closer to the actual indicator of number ofpopulation [Tsuladze, 2013: 35].

References

1. Anderson B.A., Katus K., and Silver B.D., 1994, Developments and Prospects forPopulation Statistics in Countries of the Former Soviet Union. Population Index 60(1): 4-20. Doi: 10.2307/3645322.

2. Anderson B.A. & Silver B.D., 1986, Infant mortality in the Soviet Union: Regionaldifferences and measurement issues. Population and Developments Review 12(4): 705-738. Doi: 10.2307/19734332.

3. Anderson B.A. & Silver B.D., 1989, The Changing Shape of Soviet Mortality, 1958-1985: An Evaluation of Old and New Evidence. Population Studies 43(2): 243-265.Doi: 10.1080/0032472031000144106.

4. Geostat, 2003, First National Census Results of Georgian Population in 2002, part 1:Tbilisi, Georgia.

5. Demo-sociologic research materials of Institute Of Demography and Sociology of IliaState University. 2014.

6. First National Census Results of Georgian Population in 2002, part 1: Tbilisi, Georgia.7. http://esa.un.org; http://web.worldbank.org; www.census.gov; World Population

Prospects: The 2010 Revision; http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm8. Gomelauri N., 2014, Alternative forms of family and out-of-wedlock births. Problems of

demography and sociology. Collection. Tbilisi, pp. 76-87.9. Population of Georgia, 2003, Statistical collection. Department of Statistics in Georgia.

Tbilisi, pg. 67.10. Sulaberidze A., 2008, Distorted Migration Terms: Cui Bono?Journal of Social, Political

and Economic Studies. Institute of Strategic Studies of the Caucasus. The CaucasusGlobalization. Volume 2. Issue 1. CA&CC Press. Sweden. p. 82.

11. Tsiklauri Sh. & Sulaberidze A.V., 2013, Qualitative and methodological aspects ofpopulation projections in Georgia. Georgian Population Prospects: 1950-2050.EUROSTAT international symposium “Demographic projections”. Rome. Italy.http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/Stats/documents/ece/ge.11./2013/wp7.1.pdf

12. Tsuladze G., Sulaberidze A., Maglaperidze N. & Mamardashvili G., 2008, DemographicDevelopment of Georgia: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow. Tbilisi.

13. Tsuladze G., 2015, Demographic Yearbook of Georgia 2014. UNFPA. Tbilisi,14. Population Situation Analysis (PSA). Georgia http://www.demographic-

research.org/Volumes/Vol22/2315. Tsuladze G., 2013, Demographic perspectives of Georgia. Tbilisi, pg. 35.16. United Nations, 2013, World Population Prospects: the 2012 Revision. New York, United

Nations Population Division, UNDESA.

25


makroekonomikaMACROECONOMICS

givi lemonjavasaqarTvelos universitetis asocirebuli profesori

monetaruli politikis roli da amocanebi

reziumenaSromSi ganxilulia monetaruli politikis roli da amocanebi,

am politikis komponentebi da danergvis meqanizmebi. statiaSi gaanali-zebulia monetaruli politikis ganviTarebis tendeciebi da miznobriviinflaciaze fokusirebuli monetaruli politikis konfiguracia.

sakvanZo sityvebi: monetaruli politika, miznobrivi inflacia, valutisgacvliTi kursi, monetaruli agregatebi, centraluri banki

Sesavaliekonomikur zrdas da stabilurobas ganapirobebs kerZo seqtori

da Tavisufali bazari, magram am saqmeSi samTavrobo politikebisrolic sakmaod didia. politikebi qmnian garemos, sadac bizness uwevsfunqcionireba. am garemos xarisxze mniSvnelovnad aris damokidebuliekonomikuri ganviTarebis perspeqtivebi. am politikebs Soris arismonetaruli politika, romelsac qmnis da axorcielebs qveynis cent-raluri banki. ekonomikaze gavlenis TvalsazrisiT, mTavrobis sxvapolitikebs Soris monetaruli politika aris yvelaze qmediTi instru-menti, romelic swrafad koreqtirdeba makroekonomikuri situaciismosalodneli cvlilebis sapasuxod da did gavlenas axdens ekono-mikaze.

sakmaod didi xnis ganmavlobaSi miaCndaT, rom inflaciasa dadasaqmebas Soris arsebobda grZelvadiani arCevani. am Sexedulebis Ta-naxmad, eqspansiuri monetaruli politikiT SesaZlebeli iyo umuSev-robis dabali donis miRweva, xolo SemzRudavi monetaruli politikiT– dabali inflaciis, ra Tqma unda, umuSevrobis zrdis xarjze. mone-taruli politikebis, romelebic efuZnebodnen am Sexedulebas, Sedegiiyo xangrZlivi inflacia. am mxriv, gansakuTrebiT gamorCeuli iyo 70 –80 –iani wlebi [Blinder A., 1982; Dewald W., 1998]. am periodSi, bevr qveyanaSi,maT Soris ekonomikurad ganviTarebulebSic, inflaciam orniSna niS-nuls miaRwia. am gaWianurebuli inflaciis erTi dadebiTi Sedegi hqon-da - gacnobierda inflaciiT zarali. ekonomistebma TavianT kvlevebSicxadad warmoaCines inflaciis arsi, misi mizezebi da Sedegebi [HorwitzS., 2003]. Teoriulis paralelurad ganxorcielebulma empiriulma kvle-vebma naTlad warmoCinda dabali, stabiluri inflaciis mniSvnelobaekonomikaSi. am gamocdilebis Sedegi iyo isc, rom inflaciis zaralisaRiareba TiTqmis sayovelTao gaxda[Dowd K., 1994 ].

varaudi imis Sesaxeb, rom inflaciis raRac doneze, sruli da-saqmeba iyo SesaZlebeli, efuZneboda filifsis mruds. milton frid-menma daamtkica filifsis mrudis arasamarTlianoba grZelvadian peri-odSi [Phelan J. 2012]. grZelvadian inflaciuri politikas ar SeeZlo

26


umuSevrobis donis Semcireba, radgan grZelvadiani filifsis mrudivertikaluri iyo. ase rom, sruli dasaqmebis pirobebSi, inflaciisSedegi ver iqneboda ekonomikuri aqtivobis realuri zrda.

pirvelad milton fridmenma agreTve aCvena, rom yvelgan dayovelTvis inflacia iyo monetaruli fenomeni [Friedman M., 1994], xoloSemdeg amas daeTanxma TiTqmis yvela mimdinareobis ekonomisti. Tavda-pirvelad, es gagebuli iqna, rogorc fulis masis zrdis pirdapiri Se-degi da, Sesabamisad, monetaruli politika gaxda orientirebulifulis masis zrdis mizanze. magram, male cxadi gaxda, rom am orcvlads Soris ar iyo sakmarisad mWidro kavSiri, da rac iyo, isicsustdeboda axli inovaciuri finansuri instrumentebis danergvis kva-lobaze. am mizezis gamo, ramdenime qveynis centralurma bankma daiwyoinflaciis mizanze fokusirebuli monetaruli politikebis danergva[Benanke B.S., Laudbach T.,. Mishkin F.S,. Posen A.S., 1999 ]. am saqmeSi lideri iyoaxali zelandia.

gacvliTi kursi monetarul politikaSi

martivad rom vTqvaT, gacvliTi kursi aris erTi mniSvnelovanifinansuri aqtivis fasi. amdenad, centraluri banki, Tundac inflaciismizanze fokusirebuli, ver gaeqceva gacvliT kursze pasuxismgeblobas,radgan valutis mkveTr devalvacias, gansakuTrebiT ganviTarebad qvey-nebSi, SeuZlia gamoiwvios inflacia da finansuri krizisi. garkeulipirobebSi ki, erovnuli valutis gaufasurebas SeuZlia didi gavlenamoaxdinos inflaciaze, romlis siZliere da xangrZlioba damoki-debulia erovnuli ekonomikis moqnilobis unarze – ramdenad swrafadda efeqturad SeuZlia importis Canacvleba adgilobrivi warmoebiT.Tumca, gasaTvaliwinebelia is faqtic, rom centralur bankis xelTarsebuli saSualebebiT SeuZlebelia savaluto kursis didxans “da-Wera”fiqsirebul doneze.

centralur banks SeuZlia da unda moaxerxos savaluto kusis“Warbi” moklevadiani fluqtuaciis Serbileba. magram, arc es ar arisadvili saqme. amitom, miznobriv inflaciaze orientirebul monetarulipolitikis erTi mniSvnelovani gamowvevad rCeba savaluto kursispolitika. am politikam unda upasuxos Semdeg kiTxvebs: (1) rogori undaiyos valutis kursi? – fiqsirebuli Tu Tavisufali; (3) ramdenia sava-luto kursis “Warbi” fluqtiacia? da (2) rogor unda moxdes savalutokusis “daWera” stabilurobis raRac diapazonSi?

saqmes arTulebs isic, rom Sida SokebTan erTad, valutis kurszedidi gavlenis moxdena SeuZlia gare Sokebsac, romlebic erToblivadauarseben qveynis ekonomikur mdgomareobas. qveynis savaluto Semo-savlebze uaryofiTad aisaxeba agreTve sainvesticio garemos gauaresebada sagareo valebTan dakavSirebuli gadaxdebis zrda. amis Sedegi iq-neba qveynis savaluto rezervebis Semcireba, rac amcirebs centraluribankis SesaZleblobas Searbilos valutis gacvliTi kursis “Warbi”fluqtuacia. ase rom, centraluri bankis savaluto kursis politikaunda iyos Zalian frTxili da miznad unda isaxavdes mxolod savalu-to kursis moklevadiani ryevebis Serbilebas. frTxils da gonivrulsver uwodebT fiqsirebuli savaluto reJimis politikas, radgan ganu-zomlad zrdis qveynis ekonomikur kolafsis risks. finansuri da

27


ekonomikuri krizisebma, romlebsac adgili hqonda laTinuri amerikisqveynebSi, cxadad aCvena fiqsirebuli kursis araefeqturoba da qveynebisumravlesoba gadavida gacvlis Tavisufal savaluto reJimze.

marTalia, Tavisufali gacvliTi kursis reJims aqvs gaufasurebisriski, magram, miuxedavad amisa, misi sxva upiratesobebi amarTleben amriskis aRebas. roca savaluto kursi ar aris SezRuduli droulad dasrulad asaxos garemo pirobebis cvlileba, is efeqturad reagirebs amcvlilebebze da droulad awvdis bazars swor gzavnilebs.

monetaruli agregatebis miznobrioba

TandaTan cxadi xdeboda, rom monetaruli politikis mTavarimizani unda yofiliyo fasebis stabiluroba. monetaruli politikis racvlilebebiT SeiZleboda amis miRweva? zemoqmedebis aseT meqanizmebadTavidan ganixileboda fuladi agregati: M1 an M2. am SemTxvevaSi, po-litikis amocana iyo fulis masis zrdis miznobrivi ganakveTis gamoc-xadeba da regulireba. Semdeg ki, fulis masis zrdis faqtebis amsaxvelangariSebs naTeli unda moefinaT inflaciis kontrolis mdgomareobaze.fuladi masis cvlileba unda yofiliyo signali, romlis mizaniiqneboda arainflaciuri molodinebis fiqsacia. monetaruli politikisam cvlilebis Sedegi isic iyo, rom, garda inflaciis realuri ganak-veTis Semcirebisa, iyo isic, rom monetaruli politikaze da mis Sede-gebze pasuxismgebloba srulad akumulirda centraluri bankSi.

amgvari monetaruli politika damajerebeli da saimedo rom yo-filiyo, amisTvis saWiro iyo, rom mis miznobriv cvladebsa da fuladagregatebs Soris kavSiri statistikurad arsebiTi yofiliyo. zogagad,sxva Tanabar pirobebSi, fulis masis zrdas unda gamoewvia fasebiszrda. magram, praqtikaSi “Tanabari pirobebi” Zalian cvalebadia, amitomfuladi agregatebis cvalebadoba yovelTvis ar aris inflaciis ga-nakveTisa da misi volatilobis kargi amxsneli. SesaZlebeli iyo mone-taruli agregati yofiliyo miznobriv doneze, xolo politikis miznob-rivi cvladi miznobriv dones acdenili, rac centraluri bankis mone-taruli mdgomareobis amsaxvel signals gaxdida araadekvaturs dagamoiwvevda monetaruli politikis mimarT ndobis dakargvas.

raodenobrivma analizebma da Sefasebebma aCvena, rom fulad agre-gatebsa da inflacias Soris ar iyo Zlieri kavSiri. es kavSiri Seda-rebiT ufro susti aRmoCnda ganviTarebad da gardamavali ekonomikisqveynebSi [Estrella and Mishkin F., 1997]. amis mizezia amgvari qveynebisTvisdamaxasiaTebeli fulze moTxovnis arastabiluroba. am SemTxvevaSi,monetaruli politikis miznad fuladi agregatis deklarireba ar iyogamarTlebuli, radgan SeuZlebeli iyo fasebis prognozireba fulismiwodebis cvladis safuZvelze. es iyo is mizezi, ramac centralurbankebs gadaawyvetina uari eTqva fuladi agregatebis miznobrivmonetarul politikaze.

fulis miwodebasa da inflacias Soris kavSiris arastabilurobaskargad aRwers Sveicariis gamocdileba, 1989 – 1992 [Mishkin F.S., 2007].Sveicaris centralurma bankma SeZlo inflacis moTokva, magram veruzrunvelyo fasebis stabiluroba. amis pirveli mizezi iyo is, rom 1985-dan 1987-mde Seveicaruli franki myardeboda da centralurma bankmadauSva monetaruli bazis zrda 2 procentze meti ganakveTiT (3%). meore

28


mizezi iyo angariSsworebis axali sistemis danergva, ramac mniSvnelov-nad Secvala komerciuli bankebis moTxovna likvidurobaze. am ormafaqtorma seriozuli problema Seuqmna miznobriv agregatebs. Sedegiiyo is, rom inflaciis ganakveTma gadaWarba 5 procents. Sveicariis cen-tralurma bankma 1990 wels pirvelad uari Tqva monetaruli mizanisTvisdaesaxelebina konkretuli horizonti, Semdeg 1999 wels saerTod uariTqva miznobriv monetarizmze.

fulad agregatebsa da inflacias Soris damokidebuleba Cvensmier Seswavlil iqna saqarTvelos magaliTze. statistikur analizSiSesrulda 233 dakvirvebaze da moicva 1996 – 2014 wlebi. rogorc cxri-lidan (1-1 nawili) Cans, inflaciis regresiis modeli araarsebiTia.

dagvianebis yvela donisTvis, aseve Seswavlil iqna damokidebule-ba fulad agregatsa da savaluto kursis cvlilebas Soris. analizisSedegebi warmodgenilia cxrilSi (1-2, 1-3, 2-4). M2-Tan arsebiTobis mixe-davad, regresiis wrfis daxris kuTxe Zalian mcirea, rac imas niSnavs,rom mocemuli agregatis gavlena savaluto kurszec Zalian uniSvne-loa.

cxrili1-1 regresia inflaciasa da M2 Soris

Ddagvianeba TveebSi

parametrebi 0 3 6 9 12

b1 -9.7E-5 -8.6E-5 -9.8E-2 -1.1E-4 -1.1E-1t -1.689 -1.459 -1.586 -1.686 -1.623F 2.853 2.130 2.516 2.636 2.636R2 0.012 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.011n 233 230 227 224 221

1-2. regresia savaluto kursa da sarezervo fulis Soris

Ddagvianeba dReebSi

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

b0 1.741 1.764 1.787 1.833 1.833 1.859 1.880b1 7.34E-6 -1.2E-6 -1.1E-5 -3.3E-08 -3.3E-5 -4.8E-5 -6E-5t 0.502 -0.078 -0.680 -1.154 -1.921 -2.701 -3.332F 0.252 2.7E-05 0.463 1.333 3.690 7.299 11.102R2 0.001 0.710 0.002 0.006 0.017 0.033 0.051n 237 232 227 222 217 212 207

1-3. regresia savaluto kursa da fulad agregats(M2) Sorisb0 0.249 0.157 0.045 -0.089 -0.181 -0.245 -0.337

b1 2.97E-4 3.15E-4 3.36E-4 3.62E-4 3.8E-4 3.93E-4 4.11E-4t 10.837 11.58016 12.568 13.925 14.740 15.226 16.213F 117.445 134.100 157.974 193.911 217.276 231.833 262.891R2 0.278 0.309 0.349 0.401 0.433 0.453 0.489n 306 301 296 291 286 281 276

1-4. regresia savaluto kursa da mimoqcevaSi naRdfuls Soris

b0 1.743 1.768 1.794 1.818 1.851 1.883 1.908b1 8.96E-3 -6.2E-3 -2.4E-2 -4.2E-2 -7.1E-2 -1E-1 -1.2E-1t 0.342 -0.231 -0.885 -1.481 -2.459 12.171 -4.297F 0.117 0.053 0.784 2.195 6.046 12.171 18.464R2 0.0005 0.0002 0.003 0.009 0.027 0.054 0.082n 237 232 227 222 217 212 207

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miznobriv inflciaze fokusirebuli monetaruli politika

moznobriv inflaciaze fokusirebuli monetaruli politikazegadasvla pirvelad ganaxorciela axalma zelandiam [Benanke B.S.,Laudbach T.S., Mishkin F.S., Posen A.S., 1999]. man 1989 wels miiRo kanonicentraluri bankis Sesaxeb, romelic amoqmedda 1990 wels. axalma kanon-ma qveynis centraluri banki gaxada yvelaze damoukidebeli ganviTa-rebuli qveynebis centralur bankebs Soris. kanonma finansTa ministrida centraluri bankis prezidenti daavaldebula daedginaT moneta-ruli politikis SeTanxmebuli miznobrivi maCvenebeli da gaexadaT issajaro. miznobrivi maCvenebeli, romelic unda yofiliyo gazomvadi,gaxda monetaruli politikis Sedegebis Sefasebis instrumenti.

or instituts Soris SeTanxmebis moTxovnam gazarda kordinaciisxarisxi mTavrobasa da centralur banks Soris da, rac aranakleb mniS-vnelovani iyo, aseTma SeTanxmebam gazarda centraluri bankis damouki-debloba da efeqturoba. miznobrivi inflaciis monetaruli politika,romelic iyo monetaruli miznobrivis ganviTarebis Sedegi, daemataSemdegi mniSvnelovani komponentebi: SeTanxmebuli da sajarod gacxa-debuli instituciuri valdebuleba inflaciis grZelvadiani miznobri-vi ganakveTis miRwevaze;transfaretulobis maRali xarisxi, romelicmiiRweva politikis da misi Sedegebis sazogadoebasTan komunikaciiT;centraluri bankis upirobo pasuxismgebloba monetaruli politikiTdadgenili miznebis miRwevaze.

adreuli monetaruli politikebis mniSvnelovani xarvezi iyo ga-dawyvetilebebis drosTan Seusabamoba – monetaruli gadawyvetilebaxSirad ver iTvaliwinebda momaval SesaZlo mdgomareobas, romelicadre miRebuli gadawyvetilebebis Sedegi unda yofiliyo. yoveldRiu-roba saWiroa, magram is safrTxis Semcvelia monetaruli politikaSi.amdenad, diskreciuli monetaruli politika, romelic ZiriTadad efuZ-neba mimdinare mdgomareobis, an - winaswar dagegmil monetarul qmede-bebs, ver iqneboda optimaluri, drosTan Seusabamobis maRali riskisgamo.

drosTan Seusabamobis meore wyaroa politikuri zewola, romelicmudmivad eqaCeba centralur banks eqspansiuri monetaruli politikisganxorcielebisken. centralur banks, romelic moqmedebs miznobriviinflaciaze orientirebuli monetaruli politikiT, aqvs saSualebaTavi aaridos politikur debatebs, gavlenebs da darCes koncentrire-buli inflaciis SezRudvis grZelvadian mizanze, romelsac adgenspolitika. miznobriv inflaciaze fokusirebuli monetaruli politikanaklebad xistia, is uSvebs garkveul moqnilobas, magram mkacrad zRu-davs eqspansiuri monetaruli politikis ganxorcielebis SesaZleb-lobebs. marTalia, warmoebis gafarToebaar aris amgvari monetarulipolitikis pirdapiri mizani, magram misi grZelvadiani miznis funqciaSies mizanic aris iribad gaTvaliswinebuli.

miznobriv inflaciaze fokusirebuli monetaruli politika advi-lad gasagebi aRmoCnda yvelasTvis, Tanac misi mizani kargad eTanxme-boda yvelas interesebs. is aris saimedo, gamWvirvale da moqnili meqa-nizmi, romelsac SeuZlia efeqturad moaxdinos warmoebisa da infla-ciis volatilobis minimizeba. Tavisi arsiT miznobriv inflaciaze fo-kusirebuli monetaruli politikis Sedegi ormagi bunebisaa – minimalu-

30


ri stabiluri inflacia, romelic grZelvadian perspeqtivaSi uzrunvel-yofs warmoebisa da dasqmebis maRal dones.

ekonomikuri zrda, dasaqmeba da valutis kursi agreTve mniSvnelo-vani miznebia, romlebzec SeiZleba gavlena hqondes monetaruli po-litikas. magram, gasaTvaliwinebelia is garemoeba, rom es gavlena veriqneba erTnairi aRniSnul miznebTan mimarTebiT; da Tanac, isic gasaTva-liswinebelia, rom monetaruli politikis gadacemis meqanizmebi SeiZ-leba winaRmdegobaSi movides fasebis stabilurobis grZelvadian mizan-Tan. meores mxriv ki, mravalmizniani monetaruli politis pirobebSisafrTxe eqmneba centraluri bankis damoukideblobas, rTuldeba gadaw-yvetilebis miRebis procesi, izrdeba aradrouli gadawyvetilebebisriski da politikis Sedegebze ikargeba pirdapiri pasuxismgebloba.

gasaTvaliswinebelia is faqti, rom am tipis monetaruli politi-kis warmateba mniSvnelovnad aris damokidebuli inflaciis progno-zirebis unarze. centralur banks unda hqondes inflaciis prognozi-rebis saimedo modeli an meTodologia, romelic Sesabamis ekonomikuriindikatorebze dayrdnobiT, SeZlebs momavali inflaciis prognozi-rebas. Tu es piroba ar sruldeba, centraluri banki sul iqneba mou-lodnelobis molodinSi da misi monetaruli gadawyvetilebebi ufroiqneba diskreciuli da drosTan acdenili.

monetaruli politokismiznis gansazRruloba

cnobiliada praqtikul gamoyenebaSia monetaruli reJimis ori va-rianti. pirvelSi monetaruli miznebi ierarqiulia da am ierarqiis Tav-Sia fasebis stabilurobis mizani, xolo meoreSi – politikis miznebisstruqtura horizontaluria da yvela Tanabari mniSvnelobiTarian war-modgenili. magaliTad, aSS federaluri sarezervo sistema (Fed) aRia-rebs monetaruli politikis ori mizans - fasebis stabilurobas dasruli dasaqmebas. aseve, monetaruli politikis klasifikacia SeiZlebagakeTdes politikis miznis Camoyalibebis sicxadis da konkretulobisxarisxis mixedviT – Zalian zogadidan Zalian konkretulamde. magali-Tad, zogadi – fasebis stabiluroba, konkretuli - miznobrivi infla-cia 5an araumetes 5 procentisa.

Sefasebis obieqturobisa da centraluri bankis pasuxismgeblobisgazrdis mizniT, umjobesia monetaruli politikis mizani iyos racSeiZleba konkretuli da mkafio. aseve mniSvnelovania miznis vadianoba,romelic SeiZleba iyos erTi an metwliani. miznis saSualo vadianobazrdis monetarul politikis moqnilobas. moklevadiani Sokebis SemTx-vevaSi, SesaZlebelia dasaxuli miznidan garkveuli mokle droiT gadax-ris daSveba. miznis vadianobis gansazRvrisas, aucileblad gasaTvalis-winebelia centraluri bankis monetaruli politikis instrumentebisgadacemis meqanizmebis siCqare. ganviTarebad qveynebSi monetaruli po-litikis ganakveTze SedarebiT swrafad reagirebs inflacia, amitom miz-nis xangrZliobad aq ufro xSirad iReben erTwels. miznis vadianobiasworad gansazRvra zrdis centraluri bankis angariSvaldebulebisefeqturobas da amcirebs inflaciuri molodinis Seqmnis albaTobas.

miznobrivi inflaciis sazomad gamoiyeneba samomxmareblo fasebisindeqsi (CPI). am maCveneblis gamoyenebadobas isic amarTlebs, rom isiTvleba da qveyndeba yovelTviurad. cnobilia, rom CPI – is daTvlaSi

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monawile produqtebis nawilis fasebis volatiloba naklebad arisdamokidebuli monetaruli politikis ganakveTze, amitom oficialurCPI – is garkveli koreqtireba dasWirdeba. fluktuaciis is nawili, racsxva faqtorebiT – magaliTad, sezonurobiT da aralegularobiT - arisgamowveli unda iqnas amoRebuli.

miznis gansazRrulobis kidev erTi maxasiaTebelia raodenobrioba,romelic SeiZleba iyos wertilovani an intervaluri. wertilovanisupiratesoba is aris, rom is zRudavs deflaciasac. orive SemTxvevaSi,bazars miewodeba mkafio da zusti signali centraluri bankis ganzra-xulobis Sesaxeb. mizanSewonilia wertilovani miznobrivi donis Serbi-leba, rac SeiZleba gakeTdes misgan gadaxris mimarT tolerantulobisxarisxis dadgeniT. monetaruli politikis moqnilobaze dadebiTadaisaxeba.

centraluri bankis damoukidebloba

monetaruli politikis warmatebuloba damokidebulia centralu-ri bankis damoukideblobis xarisxze. centraluri bankis damoukideb-lobas aqvs ramdenime ganzomileba: politikuri, miznobrivi, instrument-taluri da finansuri. politikuri damoukideblobis miznobrivoba niS-navs imas Tu ramdenad Tavisufalia centraluri banki miznis gansazRv-raSi. miznobrivi damoukidebloba uzrunvelyofs politikur damouki-deblobas, radgan miznis SerCevis Tavisufleba centralur banks aZ-levs saSualebas politikuri zewolis gareSe airCios dabali infla-ciis mizani da misdios mas. instrumentaluri damoukidebloba ki niS-navs meTodebs, romliTac is cdilobs monetaruli politikis miznebismiRwevas, SerCevis damoukideblobas.

centraluri bankebis damoukideblobis zrda ZiriTadad ganxor-cielda 90-ian wlebSi. manamde, mxolod sul ramdenime ekonomikuradganviTarebuli qveynis centraluri banki Tu akmayofilebda damukideb-lobis maRal standarts – bundesbanki, Sveciis centraluri banki daFed. empiriulad dadasturebulia centraluri bankis damoukideblobisgavlena inflaciaze [Dabelle G. and Fischer S., 1994 ].

inflaciasa da dasaqmebas Soris arsebuli moklevadiani arCevaniaris is satyuara, romelsac xSirad ewireba centraluri bankis damou-kidebloba. rodesac centraluri banki erTaderT mizanad aRiarebsfasebis stabilurobas, romelic yvelaze kargad pasuxobs sazogadobisinteresebs da yvela darwmunebulia amSi, maSin eqspansiuri politikis-Tvis adgili ar rCeba, rac centralur banks aiZulebs dakavdes infla-ciis kontroliT da yvela gadawyvetilebebi dauqvemdebaros am grZel-vadiani miznis Sesrulebas. moklevadiani miznisagan Tavis daRweviT,centraluri banki Tavisufldeba politikuri da sxva saxis zewoli-sagan.

qveynebis dalageba ekonomikuri Sedegebis mixedviT, mkafiod aCve-nebs centraluri bankis damoukideblobis mniSvnelobas [Dabelle G. andFischer S., 1994]. damokidebuleba centraluri bankis damoukideblobasa dainflicias Soris aris negatiuri, rac imas niSnavs, rom centraluribankis met damoukideblobas Seesabameba naklebi inflacia. rogorcstatistikur analizma gviCvena, 25 qveynis inflacias ganakveTis regre-sia maTi centraluri bankis damoukideblobis indeqsTan arsebiTia

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(F=5.25, t= 2.35) [Mathew J.]. imave monacemebisa da spirmenis rigiTobiskorelaciis araparametruli modelis gamoyenebiT [Mason R.D.,. Lind D.Aand Marchal W.G., 1999], gakeTda am ori cvladis rigiTobebs Soris kore-laciis Sefaseba( rs 0.40, t 2.10 ), ramac aseve daadastura wina Sefase-bis samarTlianoba. empiriuli gamokvlevebiT aseve dastureba damokide-buleba: centraluri bankis damoukideblobas da ekonomikuri Sedegis(GDP) variacias Soris; da centraluri bankis damoukideblobas infla-ciis variacias Soris [Parkin M.,2013]. centraluri bankis damoukideblo-ba qveyanas aZlevs met makroekonomikur Sedegs. Tumca, isic gasaTvalis-winebelia, rom es efeqti mTlianad erovnuli bankis damoukideblobisxarisxiT ar aixsneba; isic faqtia, rom qveynebSi, sadac centraluribanki xasiaTeba damoukideblobis maRali standartiT, rogorc wesi,meti Sansia misi mTavrobac iyos SedarebiT mowesrigebuli da efeq-turia.

centraluri bankis angariSvaldebuleba da gamWvirvaloba

angariSvaldebuleba aris centralur bankze kontrolis forma,romelic ise unda ganxorcieldes, rom ar Seilaxos am institutisdamoukidebloba [Waller C., 2011]. sazogadoebis ufleba akontrolos mTav-roba, rac demokratiis ZiriTadi principia, vrceldeba monetarulipolitikze pasuxismgebel centralur bankzec. es aucilebelia moneta-ruli politikis efeqtianobis uzrunvelsayofad, rac ver ganxorciel-deba centraluri bankis angariSvaldebulebisa da gamWvirvalobis sa-Tanado formatiT ganxorcielebis gareSe.

angariSvaldebulebis efeqtianoba damokidebulia centraluribankis miznebis gansazRrulobaze da mis unarze damoukideblad uzrun-velyos am miznebis miRweva. magaliTad, Tu miznad dadgenilia miznob-rivi inflacia, maSin mTavrobasac da sazogadoebasac aqvs aTvliswertili centraluri bankis Sedegebis Sesafaseblad. am SemTxvevaSi,inflaciis angariSi unda iyos periodulad gansaxilveli dokumenti,romliTac wardgeba centraluri banki mmarTveli mTavrobis im organoswinaSe, romelic uflebamosilia, Sedegebidan gamomdinare, miiRosgadawyvetileba centraluri bankis mmarTvelTan mimarTebiT.

monetaruli politikis mniSvnelovani komponentia cetraluri ban-kis gamWirvaloba da angariSvaldebuleba. centralurma bankma mkafiodunda axsnas monetaruli politikis miznebi da am miznebis miRwevis geg-mebi. garda amisa, sazogadoebis farTo fenebi informirebulni undaiyvnen politikis mimdinare cvlilebebis Sesaxeb, rom gasagebi iyosmonetaruli politikis meqanizmebis ganxorcielebuli cvlilebis saWi-roeba. komunikaciis mizani unda iyos gaurkvevlobis minimizeba, racsabanko seqtorSi amcirebs riskebs da zrdis misadmi ndobas.

gamWvirvalobis xarisxis gasazrdelad aucilebelia centraluribanki aqveynebdes prognozebs im makroekonomikuri cvladebis Sesaxeb,romlebzec monetaruli politikis meqanizmebiT igegmeba zemoqmedeba.erTis mxriv, prognozebi exmareba centralur banks gadawyvetilebismiRebis droulobaSi da zrdis gadawyvetulebebis efeqturobas. meoresmxriv, rodesac sazogadoebac kargad erkveva miRebuli gadawyetile-

33


bebSi, centralur banks uadvildeba monetaruli politikis ganxor-cieleba.

da bolos, es yvelaferi dadebiTad aisaxeba mis damoukideblobisxarisxze. rodesac fasebis stabilurobis mizani mxardaWerilia aramxolod kanomdeblobiT, aramed sazogadoebrivadac, politikuri zewo-lis safrTxe mcirdeba, rac mTavrobas aiZulebs fiskaluri politikismiyvanas monetaruli politikis moTxovnebTan.

daskvna

monetaruli politikis efeqturobas saTanado garemo esaWiroeba,romlis mTavari komponentia centraluri bankis damoukidebloba damisdami sazogadoebis ndoba. ramdenad kargad eTanxmeba monetarulipolitikis miznebi sazogadobriv interesebs da ramdenad kargad arismosaxleoba gaTviTcnobierebuli monetaruli politikis mdgomareobiT,imdenad advilia efeqturi monetaruli politikis realizeba. aq didimniSvneloba aqvs sazogadoebsTan komunikaciebis arxebisa da meTodebisSerCevas.

monetaruli politika ar unda iyos diskreciuli da mosalodnelmovlenebze unda reagirebdes maT dadgomamde. procesebsSedegebs axa-siaTebT droiTi CamorCena, amitom monetaruli politikis gadawyveti-lebebi unda iyos winmswrebi da unda pasuxobdes im movlenebs, romel-Ta dadgoma mosalodnelia momavalSi.ase rom, prognozirebis saimedomeTodologiisa da meTodebis gareSe, SeuZlebelia efeqturi monetaru-li politikis konstruireba da realizeba.

infliaciaze fokusirebuli monetaruli politika, romelic gu-lisxmobs fasebis stabilurobas, maqsimalurad Seesabameba ekonomikurizrdis interesebs. minimaluri volatilobis mqone dabali inflaciaqmnis garemos,sadac mimdinare ekonomikuri gadawyvetilebebis Tu saSua-lo da grZelvadiani sainvesticio gadawyvetilebis miReba advilia.dabali inflacia eTanxmeba sazogadoebis interesebsac da amis gamoaseTi monetaruli politika maqsimalurad farTod iqneba mxardaWe-rili.

monetaruli politikis Sedegs meti Sansi aqvs iyos ukeTesi, Tu iskoncetrirebuli iqneba erT mizanze – inflaciaze. am SemTxvevaSi,ekonomikuri aqtivobis zrdis mizanic ukeTesad realizdeba. miTumetes,rom ormizniani monetaruli politika SeiZleba winaRmdegobrivi aRmoCn-des da gaarTulos centraluri bankis komunikacia sazogadoebasTan,rac uaryofiTad aisaxeba misadmi ndobaze. savaluto kursis stabilu-robis mniSvnelovanelobidan gamomdinare, miznobriv inflaciazefokusirebis miuxedavad, es sakiTxi saTanadod unda iyos mixedulicentraluri bankis monetaruli politikis farglebSi, rom gacvliTikursis “Warbi” fluqtuacias ar hqondes adgili.

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gamoyenebuli literatura

1. Blinder A., 1982, The Anatomy of Double-Digit Inflation in the 1970s,fromhttp://www.nber.org/chapters/c11462.

2. Dewald W., 1998, Historical U.S. Money Growth, Inflation, and Inflation Credibility,fromhttp://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.197.4766&rep=rep1&type=pdf.

3. Horwitz S., 2003, The Costs of Inflation Revisited, Kluwer Academic Publishers.4. Dowd, K.,1994, “The Costs of Inflation and Disinflation.” Cato Journal, 14(2): 305–

331; Pakko, M. R. (1998) “Shoe-Leather Costs of Inflation and Policy Credibility.”Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 80(6): 37–50; Horwitzt S., (2003)Review of Austrian Economics, Kluwer Academic Publishers. Manufactured in TheNetherlands.

5. Phelan J. (23 October 2012). "Milton Friedman and the rise and fall of the PhillipsCurve",from htlp:// thecommentator.com; Retrieved on September 29, 2014.

6. Friedman M., 1994, Money Mischiff: episodes in monetary history. Harcourt Brace &Company.

7. Benanke B.S., Laudbach T., Frederic S., Mishkin A., Posen S., 1999, “InflationTargiting: Lessons from the International Experience”, Princetion Universty Press.

8. Estrella and Mishkin F.,1997, “Predicting U.S. Recession: financial variables asleading indicators”, fromhttp://www.jstor.org.

9. Mishkin F.S., 2007,”Monetary Policy Strategy. Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology”.

10. Dabelle G. and Fischer S., 1994, How Independent Should a Central Bank Be?,http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/conf38/conf38f.pdf.

11. Mathew J., Measuring Central Bank Independence in Twenty- Five countries: A NewIndex of Institutional Quality, from http://www.igidr.ac.in/... 20Mathew.pdf.

12. Mason R.D., Douglas A. Lind and Willian G. Marchal, 1999, Statistical Techniques inBusiness and Economics – thenth edition. Irwin/McGraw.

13. Parkin M., 2013, The Effects of Central Bank Independence and Inflation Targetingon Macroeconomic Performance : Evidence from Natural Experiments, fromhttp://economics.uwo.ca/newsletter/misc/2013/parkin_may28_13.pdf.

14. Waller C., 2011, Independence + Accountability: Why the Fed Is a Well-DesignedCentral Bank, Federal ReserveBank of St. Louis Review, September/October 2011,93(5), pp. 293-301.

Givi LemonjavaAssociated Professor of Georgian University

MONETARY POLICY: STRUCTURE AND TASKSExpanded Summary

State policies influence the environment, where business has to operate. Theperspectives of economical development greatly depend on the quality of this environment.Among these policies is the monetary policy, which is created and performed by the centralbank of the country. From the point of view of influence on economy, among other policies ofthe government, the monetary policy is the most viable mechanism, which is quickly correctedin response to the expected changes of the macroeconomic situation.

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The result of the expansive monetary policies, which where implemented in manycountries, was high inflation. In this regard, especially outstanding were 70-80-ies. In thisperiod in many countries, including economically developed, the inflation reached double-digitindicators. One positive result of this prolonged inflation was that recognition of the lossreceived as a result of inflation became almost universal.

This influenced the monetary policies and the aim of reducing inflation was brought tofront. Many countries developed and implemented goal-oriented inflation monetary policies.The monetary policy consists of several components and its success depends on proper andsynchronized action of these components. Besides, political factors can have great influence onit, which sometimes may be negative. So the structure and organization of the monetary policymust be such that decisions of the policy must be protected from possible negative influenceasmuch as practical.

The monetary policy focused on inflation, which means stability of prices, complieswith the interests of the growth of the countryas much as practical, as low inflation withminimal volatility creates good conditions for making efficient economic and investingdecisions. Sustainably low inflation reduces market and investment risks.

The monetary policy should not be discretional and should respond prior to itsoccurrence. The processes results are characterized by time lag, so the decisions of themonetary policy must be preemptive and respond to the events, whose occurrence is expectedin the future. So, the necessary instrument of the efficient monetary policy is prediction, whichshall be based on the documented and verified methodology of prediction.

With the objective of increase of accountability and responsibility of the central bank, itis preferred that the aim of the monetary policy to be urgency, whose length may be one yearor more. The average term of the objective increases the flexibility of monetary policy. In caseof short-term shocks, it is possible to allow short-term deviation from the aim within certainframework. In determination of the term of the goal, the speed of mechanisms for the transferof instruments of the monetary policy must be taken into account. In developing countries theinflation responds comparatively quickly to the rate of the monetary policy, so one year is oftentaken as the duration of the goal. Accurate determination of the term of the mechanismincreases the efficiency of accountability of the central bank and reduces the possibility ofcreation of inflation expectation.

The consumer price index (CPI) is often used for the measurement of the targetinflation. The usage of this indicator is justified by the fact that it is calculated and publishedon a monthly basis. It is known, that volatility of the prices of the part of products participatingin the calculation of CPI is less dependent on the rate of the monetary policy, so the officialCPI will require certain correction.

The part of fluctuation, which is caused by other factors-for example, seasonality andirregularity must be eliminated.

One more characteristic of determination of the goal is quantitativeness, which may beselective or intervallic. The advantage of the selective is that it restricts deflation. In both cases,the market is provided with clear and exact sign about the decision of the central bank. It isjustified to mitigate the selective dedicated level, which may be achieved by determination oftolerance of deviation from it, which will have a positive impact on the flexibility of themonetary policy.

In relation tothe goals of the monetary policy, the mode of currency exchange rate isone more important issue. The central bank, focused even on one inflation goal, cannot avoidresponsibility for the exchange rate. The sharp devaluation of the currency, especially in thedeveloping countries, gives an impetus to inflation and sometimes causes financial crisis. Thelevel of risk depends on the level of development of economy-how quickly and efficiently itcan replace import with the local production and increase export. Some of these factors are

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beyond the monetary policy, because long “underpin” of the currency exchange rate isachievable only by means of instruments available to the central bank of the country.

The central bank can and must mitigate “sharp” short-term fluctuation of the currencyexchange rate. But it is not easy. Thus one of challenges of the monetary policy oriented on thetarget inflation, remains the currency policy. At its best, the following questions must beanswered within the framework of this policy: (1) should the currency exchange rate be fixedor free? (2) to what extent is the fluctuation of the currency exchange rate moderate? (3) howthe exchange rate should be “underpinned” in the specified range of stabil

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ეკონომისტი 2-2016 ბოლო ვარიანტი€¦ · diagrama2. mosaxleobis saerTo matebis (klebis) komponentebi saqarTveloSi1960-2000wlebSi,aTasobiT(garemigracia:1960-1989ww._