Source: EIA WEE First Stamford Placen Stamfordn CT EN9EL Tel: Rz$LEW$WLN$L8EE Fax: Rz$LEW$9ww$LzND mjlfgrp@mjlf/com May 8thn LEzO CHARTERING SHIP SALES PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CONSULTING & ASSOCIATES MJLF Research: Court Smith csmith@mjlf/com Rz$LEW$WLN$L8Wz Research Panama Canal MJLF & associates Condensate exports from the US Gulf have been risingE and volumes moved are expected to increase as export terminals continue to expand0 In spite of the falling rig countE US production has remained north of Vmn b1d and as suchE we do not expect to see a significant decline in condensate available for export0 For the sample voyage calculations wekve focused on larger ships as they represent the change in trade patterns0 Legacy (N meter beam ships will see a modest savings on tolls compared to Panamax tonnage with a wider beamE but they are unlikely to be used for dirty cargoes to the far east0 HoweverE all tonnage based in the Caribbean1 USG are likely to see upward pressure on rates as the new options for trading add to total ton mile demand0 Most of the condensate export volumes from the US should move on dirty Aframaxes based on cost per ton calculation and US port restrictions0 They are currently the vessel of choice for the trade to Europe0 The per ton savings suggests that fuel oil cargoes may move on Aframaxes through the canal as well0 Spot market rates will be more fluid as the daily supply of vessels will change the voyage economics0 The freedom to transit the canal on Aframaxes and most Suezmaxes will also allow tonnage to balance on the east and west coasts of Latin America0 This will provide more options for charterers working on the west coast0 The Panama Canal released a new toll structure this week that takes affect in April N6480 The new tolls include rates for ships up to the new maximum beam of )Vm0 There are currently few Panama Canal Net Tonnages(PCNTM assigned to ships with a beam larger than (N0( meters0 To estimate tolls for larger vesselsE we have estimated a tonnage based on the ratio between deadweight tonnage and PCNT on ships which currently have an assigned tonnage0 Although Caribbean Aframax cargoes are traded basis $6E666tE the vessels loading US condensate have been able to take approximately 55E666t per voyage0 Since Aframaxes will be able to transit the canal fully ladenE wekve used the higher load number for the 31t cost estimates0 For SuezmaxesE wekve assumed a cargo size of 467E666t through the canalE and 476E666t via the Cape of Good Hope0 The amount that can be carried through the canal will vary based on the vessels particular tons per centimeter (TPCM immersion0 Vessels transiting the canal will be draft restricted to 470NmE which will prevent Suezmaxes from taking a full cargo0 Cheapest @Vt Rate Source: MJLF Tolls Sample Voyage Calculations Effects on Trade Maximum Ship Size for the Panama Canal Length: L9D/zWm Width: WL/Wzm Draft: zL/EDm Length: WNO/wNm Width: D9/Ewm Draft: zO/Lzm Source: MJLF Old Canal New Canal

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFF Research...fffffffffffff f0fffffffff fff0 fffffffffffffff n6480fffffffffffffff)v0f ffntlyfffffhmffffff fff(n0(f0ffffffefff fffffffffffff ffffff0 fcaribbffffff$6e666efffadingf

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Page 1: FFFFFFFFFFFFFFF Research...fffffffffffff f0fffffffff fff0 fffffffffffffff n6480fffffffffffffff)v0f ffntlyfffffhmffffff fff(n0(f0ffffffefff fffffffffffff ffffff0 fcaribbffffff$6e666efffadingf

Source: EIA

WEE4First4Stamford4Placen4Stamfordn4CT4EN9ELTel:4Rz$LEW$WLN$L8EE4Fax:4Rz$LEW$9ww$LzNDmjlfgrp@mjlf/com

May48thn4LEzO

CHARTERING SHIP SALES PROJECT DEVELOPMENT CONSULTING

&A SSOCIATESMJLF Research: Court4Smith4444444444444444444444444444csmith@mjlf/com444444444444444444444444444Rz$LEW$WLN$L8Wz

Research

Panama4Canal

MJLF & associates

CondensateFexportsFfromFtheFUSFGulfFhaveFbeenFrisingEFandFvolumesFmovedFareFexpectedFtoFincreaseFasFexportFterminalsFcontinueFtoFexpand0FInFspiteFofFtheFfallingFrigFcountEFUSFproductionFhasFremainedFnorthFofFVmnFb1dFandFasFsuchEFweFdoFnotFexpectFtoFseeFaFsignificantFdeclineFinFcondensateFavailableFforFexport0F

ForFtheFsampleFvoyageFcalculationsFwekveFfocusedFonFlargerFshipsFasFtheyFrepresentFtheFchangeFinFtradeFpatterns0FLegacyF(NFmeterFbeamFshipsFwillFseeFaFmodestFsavingsFonFtollsFcomparedFtoFPanamaxFtonnageFwithFaFwiderFbeamEFbutFtheyFareFunlikelyFtoFbeFusedFforFdirtyFcargoesFtoFtheFfarFeast0FHoweverEFallFtonnageFbasedFinFtheFCaribbean1USGFareFlikelyFtoFseeFupwardFpressureFonFratesFasFtheFnewFoptionsFforFtradingFaddFtoFtotalFtonFmileFdemand0

MostFofFtheFcondensateFexportFvolumesFfromFtheFUSFshouldFmoveFonFdirtyFAframaxesFbasedFonFcostFperFtonFcalculationFandFUSFportFrestrictions0FTheyFareFcurrentlyFtheFvesselFofFchoiceFforFtheFtradeFtoFEurope0FTheFperFtonFsavingsFsuggestsFthatFfuelFoilFcargoesFmayFmoveFonFAframaxesFFthroughFtheFcanalFasFwell0FSpotFmarketFratesFwillFbeFmoreFfluidFasFtheFdailyFsupplyFofFvesselsFwillFchangeFtheFvoyageFeconomics0F

TheFfreedomFtoFtransitFtheFcanalFonFAframaxesFandFmostFSuezmaxesFwillFalsoFallowFtonnageFtoFbalanceFonFtheFeastFandFwestFcoastsFofFLatinFAmerica0FThisFwillFprovideFmoreFoptionsFforFcharterersFworkingFonFtheFwestFcoast0

TheFPanamaFCanalFreleasedFaFnewFtollFstructureFthisFweekFthatFtakesFaffectFinFAprilFN6480FTheFnewFtollsFincludeFratesFforFshipsFupFtoFtheFnewFmaximumFbeamFofF)Vm0FThereFareFcurrentlyFfewFPanamaFCanalFNetFTonnagesHPCNTMFassignedFtoFshipsFwithFaFbeamFlargerFthanF(N0(Fmeters0FToFestimateFtollsFforFlargerFvesselsEFweFhaveFestimatedFaFtonnageFbasedFonFtheFratioFbetweenFdeadweightFtonnageFandFPCNTFonFshipsFwhichFcurrentlyFhaveFanFassignedFtonnage0

AlthoughFCaribbeanFAframaxFcargoesFareFtradedFbasisF$6E666tEFtheFvesselsFloadingFUSFcondensateFhaveFbeenFableFtoFtakeFapproximatelyF55E666tFperFvoyage0FSinceFAframaxesFwillFbeFableFtoFtransitFtheFcanalFfullyFladenEFwekveFusedFtheFhigherFloadFnumberFforFtheF31tFcostFestimates0F

ForFSuezmaxesEFwekveFassumedFaFcargoFsizeFofF467E666tFthroughFtheFcanalEFandF476E666tFviaFtheFCapeFofFGoodFHope0FTheFamountFthatFcanFbeFcarriedFthroughFtheFcanalFwillFvaryFbasedFonFtheFvesselsFparticularFtonsFperFcentimeterFHTPCMFimmersion0FVesselsFtransitingFtheFcanalFwillFbeFdraftFrestrictedFtoF470NmEFwhichFwillFpreventFSuezmaxesFfromFtakingFaFfullFcargo0F

Cheapest4@Vt4Rate

Source: MJLF

Tolls Sample4Voyage4Calculations

Effects4on4Trade

Maximum4Ship4Size4for4the4Panama4Canal

Length:44L9D/zWmWidth:4444WL/Wzm444Draft:44444zL/EDm

Length:44WNO/wNmWidth:4444D9/Ewm444Draft:44444zO/Lzm

Source: MJLF

Old4Canal

New4Canal

Julio Cortázar : fantastique et mysticisme oriental · FFFFFFFFFFFFF Julio Cortázar : fantastique et mysticisme oriental fanfan chen N é à Bruxelles, de double nationalité argentine

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