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Ferrogel 03/04/2010 - 30/09/2010

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Analysis Disclaimer

Risk warning

Jita Trade and Research Institute shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Jita Trade and Research Institute that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially investments such as moon minerals and investment in commodities, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

Sources of information

Jita Trade and Research utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Jita Trade and Research Institute accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained.

Basis of valuation or methodology used to evaluate financial instruments or issuers

Any recommendations and other comments in Jita Trade and Research Institute’s analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economic and corporation specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment.

Recommendation types

If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendations should be seen as Jita Trade and Research Institute’s opinion that the specific item will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Jita Trade and Research Institute’s recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations.

Conflict of interest

In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Jita Trade and Research Institute has established appropriate business procedures, including procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Jita Trade and Research Institute reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. producers of commodities, mentioned in the analysis.

Jita Trade and Research Institute, its employees and related legal persons may have, establish, change or cease to have positions in commodities, index exchange or other financial instruments covered by a recommendation.

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Contents Technical Analysis Page Concepts

Fibonacci Retracements 5 Pivot Points 6 Volatility

Average True Range 7 Bollinger Bands 8 Trend

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence 9 Mass Index 11 Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) 12 Trix 13 Ichimoku Kinkô Hyô 14 Momentum

Relative Strength Indicator 15 Stochastic Flow Indictor 16 Volume Money Flow Index 17 On-Balance Volume 18 Price and Volume Trend 19 Force Index 20 Negative Volume Index 21 Ease of Movement 22 Accumulation/Distribution Index 23 Other

Ultimate Oscillator 24 Coppock Curve 25 Keitner Channel 26 Ulcer Index 27 Candlesticks

Basic Candlesticks 28 Heikin-Ashi candlesticks 30 JTRI Custom Indicators

JTRI Indicator A 31 JTRI Indicator B 32 Glossary 33

Acknowledgements 34

Jita Trade and Research Institute Closing Statement 36

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Technical Analysis In Eve, technical analysis is a commodity trading discipline for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, which are typically mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine whether an asset is trending, and if it is, its price direction. This analysis uses various methods and tools, these methods or tools may or may not have been modified for their application to Eve. The Jita Trade and Research Institute has chosen to omit from this analysis certain methods or tools. Non-comprehensively, these omissions are Average Directional Index, Factor price/Market Price, Advance/Decline Line, Williams’s %R, Commodity Channel Index, McClellan Oscillator, Point and figure chart

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Concept > Fibonacci Retracements Fibonacci retracement is a very popular tool used by many technical traders to help identify strategic places for transactions to be placed, target prices or stop losses. These levels are created by drawing a trend line between two extreme points and then dividing the vertical distance by the key Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 100%. The Fibonacci sequence is a based on the idea that markets will retrace a large part of their original move after which they will continue to move in their prior direction.

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Fibonacci retracements occur at distinct levels of the original move. Each Fibonacci level is considered to be an area where the market will likely find levels of support or resistance.

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Concept > Pivot Points A pivot point is a price level of significance in technical analysis of a market that is used by traders as a predictive indicator of market movement. A pivot point is calculated as an average of significant prices (high, low, close) from the performance of a market in the prior trading period.

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The pivot point itself represents a level of highest resistance or support, depending on the overall market condition. Trading above or below the pivot point indicates the overall market sentiment. It is a leading indicator providing advanced signaling of potentially new market highs or lows within a given time frame.

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Volatility > Average True Range Average True Range (ATR) is a technical analysis volatility indicator developed by J. Welles Wilder, As such; the indicator does not provide an indication of price trend, simply the degree of price volatility.

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The idea of ranges is that they show the commitment or enthusiasm of traders. Large or increasing ranges suggest traders prepared to continue to bid up or sell down a commodity through the course of the day. Decreasing range suggests waning interest.

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Volatility > Bollinger Bands Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool invented by John Bollinger in the 1980s. Having evolved from the concept of trading bands, Bollinger Bands can be used to measure the highness or lowness of the price relative to previous trades.

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The use of Bollinger Bands varies widely among traders. Some traders buy when price touches the lower Bollinger Band and exit when price touches the moving average in the center of the bands. Other traders buy when price breaks above the upper Bollinger Band or sell when price falls below the lower Bollinger Band

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Trend> Moving Average Convergence/Divergence MACD stands for Moving Average Convergence / Divergence, a technical analysis indicator created by Gerald Appel in the late 1970s. It is used to spot changes in the strength, direction, momentum, and duration of a trend in a price.

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

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Signal

Exponential moving averages highlight recent changes in a commodity price. By comparing EMAs of different lengths, the MACD line gauges changes in the trend of a commodity. By then comparing differences in the change of that line to an average, an analyst can identify subtle shifts in the strength and direction of a trend.

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MACD Histogram

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Traders recognize three meaningful signals generated by the MACD indicator.

When:

• the MACD line crosses the signal line • the MACD line crosses zero • there is a divergence between the MACD line and the price or

between the histogram and the price • False signals

Like any indicator, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a commodity. A false negative would be a situation where there was no bullish crossover, yet the commodity accelerated suddenly upwards. Analysts use a variety of approaches to filter out false signals and confirm true ones. As a lagging indicator, the MACD is often paired with a leading indicator, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

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Trend> Mass Index The mass index is an indicator, developed by Donald Dorsey, used in technical analysis to predict trend reversals.

Mass Index

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It is based on the notion that there is a tendency for reversal when the price range widens, and therefore compares previous trading ranges (highs minus lows).

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Trend> Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) In the field of technical analysis, Parabolic SAR (SAR - stop and reverse) is a method devised by J. Welles Wilder, Jr, to find trends in market prices or securities. It may be used as a trailing stop loss based on prices tending to stay within a parabolic curve during a strong trend.

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A parabola below the price is generally bullish, while a parabola above is generally bearish. Trading rule for the Parabolic SAR is quite simple: If Parabolic is below price - Buy. If Parabolic is above price - Sell.

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Trend> Trix Trix (or TRIX) is a technical analysis oscillator developed in the 1980s by Jack Hutson, editor of Technical Analysis of Commodities and Commodities magazine. It shows the slope (i.e. derivative) of a triple-smoothed exponential moving average. The name Trix is from "triple exponential."

Trix

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10d EMA of 10d EMA

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Like any moving average, the triple EMA is just a smoothing of price data and therefore is trend-following. A rising or falling line is an uptrend or downtrend and Trix shows the slope of that line, so it's positive for a steady uptrend, negative for a downtrend, and a crossing through zero is a trend-change, i.e. a peak or trough in the underlying average.

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Trend> Ichimoku Kinkô Hyô Ichimoku Kinko Hyo usually just called ichimoku is a technical analysis method that builds on candlestick charting to improve the accuracy of forecasted price moves. Developed in the late 1930s by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese journalist, who used to be known as Ichimoku Sanjin, something that can be translated as "What a man in the mountain sees".

Tenkan-sen

It is primarily used as a signal line and a minor support/resistance line. Kijun-sen

This is a confirmation line, a support/resistance line, and can be used as a trailing stop line. Senkou span A

Also called leading span 1, this line forms one edge of the kumo, or cloud Senkou span B

Also called leading span 2, this line forms the other edge of the kumo. Kumo

This is the space between senkou span A and B and is the cloud. The cloud edges identify current and potential future support and resistance points. Chikou span

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Also called the lagging span it is used as a support/resistance aid.

Momentum > Stochastic Flow Indicator In technical analysis of trading, the stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator that uses support and resistance levels. Dr. George Lane promoted this indicator in the 1950s

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The signal to act is when you have a divergence-convergence, in an extreme area, with a crossover on the right hand side, of a cycle bottom

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Momentum > Relative Strength Indicator The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a technical indicator used in the technical analysis of financial markets. It is intended to chart the current and historical strength or weakness of a commodity or market based on the closing prices of a recent trading period. (It is not to be confused with relative strength.)

Relat ive St rength Indicator

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Wilder believed that tops and bottoms are indicated when RSI goes above 70 or drops below 30. Traditionally, RSI readings greater than the 70 level are considered to be in overbought territory, and RSI readings lower than the 30 level are considered to be in oversold territory. In between the 30 and 70 level is considered neutral, with the 50 level a sign of no trend. Put simply when the reading is below 30 then the price is set to rise when above 70 it is set to drop

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Volume > Money Flow Index Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator calculated over an N-day period, ranging from 0 to 100, showing money flow on up days as a percentage of the total of up and down days. Money flow in technical analysis is typical price multiplied by volume, a kind of approximation to the isk value of a day's trading.

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MFI EMA

MFI EMA EMA

For the purposes of the MFI, "money flow", i.e. isk volume, on an up day is taken to represent the enthusiasm of buyers, and on a down day to represent the enthusiasm of sellers. An excessive proportion in one direction or the other is interpreted as an extreme, likely to result in a price reversal. MFI is used as an oscillator. A value of 80 is generally considered overbought, or a value of 20 oversold.

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Volume > On-Balance Volume On-balance volume (OBV) is a technical analysis indicator intended to relate price and volume in the market. OBV is based on a cumulative total volume

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OBV is generally used to confirm price move. The idea is that volume is higher on days where the price move is in the dominant direction, for example in a strong uptrend more volume on up days than down days.

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Volume > Price and Volume Trend Price and Volume Trend (PVT) is a technical analysis indicator intended to relate price and volume in the market. PVT is based on a running total volume, with volume added according to the percentage change in closing price over the previous close.

Price and Volume Trend

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PVT is interpreted in similar ways to OBV. Generally the idea is that volume is higher on days with a price move in the dominant direction, for example in a strong uptrend more volume on up days than down days. So when prices are going up, PVT should be going up too, and when prices make a new rally high, PVT should too. If PVT fails to go past its previous rally high then this is a negative divergence, suggesting a weak move

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Volume > Force Index The Force Index (FI) is an indicator used in technical analysis to illustrate how strong the actual buying or selling pressure is.

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High positive values mean there is a strong rising trend, and low values signify a strong downward trend

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Volume > Negative Volume Index The Negative Volume Index was introduced (in Commodity Market Logic) by Norman Fosback and is often used in conjunction with Positive Volume Index to identify bull markets.

Negative Volume Index

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The two indicators are based on the assumption that the smart money dominates trading on quiet days and that the uninformed crowd dominates trading on active days.

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Volume > Ease of Movement Ease of movement is an indicator used in technical analysis to relate an asset's price change to its volume. Ease of Movement was developed by Richard W. Arms, Jr and highlights the relationship between volume and price changes and is particularly useful for assessing the strength of a trend

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High positive values indicate the price is increasing on low volume: strong negative values indicate the price is dropping on low volume.

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Volume > Accumulation/Distribution Index Accumulation Distribution tracks the relationship between price and volume and acts as a leading indicator of price movements. It provides a measure of the commitment of bulls and bears to the market and is used to detect divergences between volume and price action - signs that a trend is weakening.

Accumulation Distribution Index

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The strongest signals on the Accumulation Distribution are divergences:

• Go long when there is a bullish divergence.

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Other > Ultimate Oscillator The Ultimate Oscillator is a technical analysis oscillator developed by Larry Williams based on a notion of buying or selling "pressure" represented by where a day's closing price falls within the day's true range.

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Williams had specific criteria for a buy or sell signal. A buy signal occurs when,

• Bullish divergence between price and the oscillator is observed, meaning prices make new lows but the oscillator doesn't

• During the divergence the oscillator has fallen below 30. • The oscillator then rises above its high during the divergence, ie. the

high in between the two lows. The buy trigger is the rise through that high.

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Other > Coppock Curve The Coppock curve or Coppock indicator is a technical analysis indicator for long-term market investors created by E.S.C. Coppock, first published in Barron's Magazine in October 15, 1962.

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A buy signal is generated when the indicator is below zero and turns upwards from a trough. No sell signals are generated (that not being its design). The indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become established.

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Other > Keitner Channel Keltner channel is a technical analysis indicator showing a central moving average line plus channel lines at a distance above and below.

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Keltner Channel Buy Signal

When price closes above the upper band, buy.

Keltner Channel Sell Signal

When price closes below the lower band, sell.

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Other > Ulcer Index The Ulcer Index is a commodity market risk measure or technical analysis indicator devised by Peter Martin in 1987.

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Martin recommends his index as a measure of risk in various contexts where usually the standard deviation (SD) is used for that purpose.

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Candlesticks > Basic Candlesticks A candlestick chart is a style of bar-chart used primarily to describe price movements of a security, derivative, or commodity over time. It is a combination of a line-chart and a bar-chart, in that each bar represents the range of price movement over a given time interval. It is most often used in technical analysis of equity and currency price patterns. They appear superficially similar to error bars, but are unrelated.

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Candlestick simple patterns For the purposes of the above chart in relation to this piece of text, white is green and black is red. There are multiple forms of candlestick chart patterns, with the simplest depicted at right. Here is a quick overview of their names:

1. White candlestick Signals uptrend movement (those occur in different lengths; the longer the body, the more significant the price increase). 2. Black candlestick

Signals downtrend movement (those occur in different lengths; the longer the body, the more significant the price decrease). 3. Long lower shadow Bullish signal (the lower wick must be at least the body's size; the longer the lower wick, the more reliable the signal). 4. Long upper shadow Bearish signal (the upper wick must be at least the body's size; the longer the upper wick, the more reliable the signal). 5. Hammer A bullish pattern during a downtrend (long lower wick and small or no body); Shaven head – a bullish pattern during a downtrend & a bearish pattern during an uptrend (no upper wick); Hanging man – bearish pattern during an uptrend (long lower wick, small or no body; wick has the multiple length of the body. 6. Inverted hammer

Signals bottom reversal, however confirmation must be obtained from next trade (may be either a white or black body); Shaven bottom – signaling bottom reversal, however confirmation must be obtained from next trade (no lower wick); Shooting star – a bearish pattern during an uptrend (small body, long upper wick, small or no lower wick). 7. Spinning top white Neutral pattern, meaningful in combination with other candlestick patterns. 8. Spinning top black Neutral pattern, meaningful in combination with other candlestick patterns. 9. Doji Neutral pattern, meaningful in combination with other candlestick patterns. 10. Long legged doji Signals a top reversal. 11. Dragonfly doji Signals trend reversal (no upper wick, long lower wick). 12. Gravestone doji Signals trend reversal (no lower wick, long upper wick). 13. Marubozu white Dominant bullish trades, continued bullish trend (no upper, no lower wick). 14. Marubozu black Dominant bearish trades, continued bearish trend (no upper, no lower wick).

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Candlesticks > Heikin-Ashi candlesticks Heikin-Ashi (Japanese for 'average bar') candlesticks are a weighted version of candlesticks

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Heikin-Ashi candlesticks must be used with caution with regards to the price as the body doesn't necessarily sync up with the actual open/close. Unlike with regular candlesticks, a long wick shows more strength, whereas the same period on a standard chart might show a long body with little or no wick

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JTRI Custom Indicators > JTRI Indicator A The JTRI Indicator A is a technical analysis indicator developed by Jita Trade and Research Institute based on a notion of volatility and pricing shifts

JTRI A

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A buy signal is interpreted when the signal line up trends through both V1 and V2. A sell signal is interpreted when the signal line down trends through both V1 and V2.

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JTRI Custom Indicators > JTRI Indicator B The JTRI Indicator B is a technical analysis indicator developed by Jita Trade and Research Institute, its basis is the formation of resistance and support lines based on standard deviation of price over entire trading period.

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The RS lines represent support and resistance lines around with buy or sell decisions can be made

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Glossary Bullish Regarding a particular investment as potentially profitable Bearish Regarding a particular investment as potentially unprofitable

If you feel that any terms mentioned in this document lack sufficient clarity or context to be understandable,

please contact Jita Trade and Research Institute and suggest and additional to glossary

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Acknowledgements Eve-Metrics Eve-Central Eve-Markets Jita Trade and Research Institute market database Christa E. Wyke Mossari Eraggan Sadarr Vaerah Vahrokha Akita T The Disciplined Trader, Mark Douglas, New York Institute of Finance, 1990, ISBN 0-13-215757-8 Getting Started in Technical Analysis, Jack D. Schwager, Wiley, 1999, ISBN 0-471-29542-6 New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems, J. Welles Wilder, Trend Research, 1978, ISBN 0-89459-027-8 Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin Lefèvre, John Wiley & Sons Inc, 1994, ISBN 0-471-05970-6 Street Smarts, Connors/Raschke, 1995, ISBN 0-9650461-0-9 Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, Kirkpatrick/Dahlquist, 2007, ISBN 0-13-153113-1 Technical Analysis Explained: The Successful Investor's Guide to Spotting Investment Trends and Turning Points, Martin J. Pring, McGraw Hill, 2002, ISBN 0-07-138193-7 Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, 9th Edition (Hardcover), Robert D. Edwards, John Magee, W.H.C. Bassetti (Editor), American Management Association, 2007, ISBN 0-8493-3772-0

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Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, John J. Murphy, New York Institute of Finance, 1999, ISBN 0-7352-0066-1 The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, J.M. Hurst, Prentice-Hall, 1972, ISBN 0-13-726018-0 Omissions have been made.

Acknowledgement of organisations or persons above does not necessarily constitute any relationship by Jita Trade and Research Institute with such persons.

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Jita Trade and Research Institute Closing Statement This purpose of this document; the first of hopefully many technical analyses on particular

eve commodities, is both educational and commercial. The structure of this first document is educational in so far as it is structured to ease the reader into a wide ride of tools and methods of technical analysis and stimulate their interest in learning more. It is also structured thus to allow for the easier commercialisation

of such technical analysis in the future, wherein this document will serve as a reference

for “harder” technical analysis with increased predictive comment. (Something absent from this document)

This document is commercial in the sense that it hopes to stimulate demand for such analysis and serves as an advertisement for this. The Jita Trade and Research can offer you a technical analysis of this kind on any commodity, the pricing structure vs. analysis structure has not been finalised yet

however, and enquiries are welcome. This document lacks much of the directive commentary that will be included in commercial and future analyses.

If you have any questions regarding any particular tools or method used herein, please feel free to contact the author of this document. The Jita Trade and Research Institute is

a school and humanitarian aid organization. Like most schools the JTRI has a very formal

curriculum that focuses primarily on the practical side of education. If you are new player interested in trading or alternatively an older player and would like to join, please feel free to get in touch and put in an application.

Errors/Discrepancies; some of the technical analysis tools used herein have been

modified for Eve, yet have retained their original names. If you feel a tool or method has been incorrectly described or modelled, please inform

the author. Improvements, if you feel any part of document could be improved; from font to graphs, to certain new tools that could be used, please tell the author.

I hope you have enjoyed this document as much as I have enjoyed creating it; which is unlikely. There will be future public releases of similar documents for other commodities and you can purchase commodity specific analysis.

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