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FERREXPO 2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS PRESENTATION

FERREXPO 2014 FULL YEAR RESULTS PRESENTATION · FYM concentrator on hold Net debt increased modestly by US$39M US$20M increase in VAT (no repayment in Nov & Dec), normal repayments

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  • F E R R E X P O 2 0 1 4 F U L L Y E A R R E S U LT S P R E S E N TAT I O N

  • D I S C L A I M E R

    2

    This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and does not constitute or form

    part of any offer or invitation or inducement to sell or issue, or any solicitation of any offer to

    purchase or subscribe for, any shares in the Company or any other securities, nor shall any part

    of it nor the fact of its distribution form part of or be relied on in connection with any contract or

    investment decision relating thereto, nor does it constitute a recommendation regarding the

    securities of the Company. No information made available to you in connection with this

    document may be passed on, copied, reproduced, in whole or in part, or otherwise disseminated,

    directly or indirectly, to any other person.

    Some of the information in this document is still in draft form and is subject to verification,

    finalisation and change. Neither the Company nor its affiliates nor advisers are under an

    obligation to correct, update or keep current the information contained in this document or to

    publicly announce the result of any revision to the statements made herein except where they

    would be required to do so under applicable law.

    No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this

    document. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by or on behalf of the

    Company or any of the Company’s directors, officers or employees or any other person as to the

    accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document and no

    liability whatsoever is accepted by the Company or any of the Company’s members, directors,

    officers or employees nor any other person for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly,

    from any use of such information or opinions otherwise arising in connection therewith.

    This presentation and its contents are confidential. By reviewing and / or attending thispresentation you are deemed to accept that you are under a duty of confidentiality in relation tothe contents of this presentation. You agree that you will not at any time have any discussion,correspondence or contact concerning the information in this document with any of the directorsor employees of the Company or its subsidiaries nor with any of their customers or suppliers, or

    any governmental or regulatory body without the prior written consent of the Company.

    Certain statements, beliefs and opinions in this document and any materials distributed inconnection with this document are forward-looking. The statements typically contain words suchas “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “plan”, “intend” and words of similarsubstance. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve a number of risks, uncertaintiesand assumptions that could actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed orimplied by the forward-looking statements. These risk, uncertainties and assumptions couldadversely affect the outcome and financial effects of the plans and events described herein.Statements contained in the document regarding past trends or activities should not be taken as arepresentation or warranty (express or implied) that such trends or activities will continue in thefuture. No statement in this document is intended to be a profit forecast. You should not placereliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this document.

    You should not base any behaviour in relation to financial instruments related to the Company’ssecurities or any other securities and investments on information until after it is made publiclyavailable by the Company or any of their respective advisers. Any dealing or encouraging othersto deal on the basis of such information may amount to insider dealing under the Criminal JusticeAct 1993 and to market abuse under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

  • 3

    I N T R O D U C T I O N

    M I C H A E L A B R A H A M S C B E D L , C H A I R M A N

  • 4

    2 0 1 4 F I N A N C I A L S R E S U LT S

    C H R I S M AW E , C F O

  • 5

    2 0 1 4 : S T R O N G P E R F O R M A N C E

    US$M (unless otherwise stated) 2014 2013 % Change

    Total production (kt) 11,021 10,813 2%

    Sales volumes (kt) 11,167 10,689 5%

    Average CFR 62% fines price (US$/t) 97 135 (28%)

    Revenue 1,388 1,581 (12%)

    C1 cash cost (US$/t) 46 60 (23%)

    Operating foreign exchange gains 76 1 n/a

    EBITDA 496 506 (2%)

    Impairments (84) (1) n/a

    Profit for the period 184 264 (30%)

    Income tax % 28% 14% 100%

    Diluted eps 30.39 44.69 (31%)

    Net cash flow from operating activities 288 233 24%

    CAPEX 235 278 (15%)

    Dividend 13.2 13.2 -

    Closing net debt 678 639 6%

    Net assets 718 1,735 (59%)

    Benchmark iron ore price down 47% in 2014 from US$135/t to US$72/t, however

    Strong performance highlights strength of business model

    Higher pellet premiums

    Improved pricing terms

    Increased production volumes and quality

    Improved efficiency

    Lower costs (currency effects)

    Lower freight – from December

    Dividend retained in line with 2013

    Capex to complete QUP & CUP; 12 MTPA capacity reached

    FYM concentrator on hold

    Net debt increased modestly by US$39M

    US$20M increase in VAT (no repayment in Nov & Dec), normal repayments in Jan & Feb 2015

  • 1,581

    430

    164

    62

    64

    1,388

    11

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1000

    1200

    1400

    1600

    2013revenue

    Spot 62% Fefines

    Pelletpremium &

    pricerealisation

    Volume, ownore

    Freight &other

    2014revenue

    6

    506496

    164

    23 45104

    43

    76

    430 35

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    2013EBITDA

    Spot 62%Fe fines

    Pelletpremium &

    pricerealisation

    Volume,own ore

    C1 /constantcurrency

    Other costs /constantcurrency

    C1 / forexeffect

    Other costs /forex effect

    Forex non-cash gain

    2014EBITDA

    REVENUE 2014 VS. 2013 (US$M) EBITDA 2014 VS. 2013 (US$M)

    H I G H E R V O L U M E S , I N D E X B A S E D P R I C I N G , I M P R O V E D P E L L E T

    P R E M I U M S A N D L O W E R C O S T S S U P P O R T E D 2 0 1 4 E B I T D A

  • L O W E R C O S T S

    C1 CASH US$ PER TONNE

    6046

    36

    30

    35

    40

    45

    50

    55

    60

    2013 2014 Jan/Feb 2015

    7

    25% Electricity

    15% Gas

    13% Fuel

    10%Materials

    10%Personnel

    7% Grinding bodies

    7%Maintenance

    6% Spares

    4% Royalites3% Explosives

    BREAKDOWN OF C1 CASH COST

    Average

    2013

    Average

    2014

    Average 2015

    as of 28 Feb

    2015

    Current spot

    (approximately)

    UAH vs. US$ 8.0 11.9 20.3 23.0

    C1 cost US$14 per tonne lower

    Largely driven by UAH devaluation

    Positive FYM contribution

    15% decline in gas prices

    Improved consumption norms

    14% increase in electricity tariffs

    Increased royalty payments in UAH

    -23%

    45% = FPP1 52% = FPP1 81% = FPP1

    1Ferrexpo Premium Pellets, 65% Fe

    US

    $ pe

    r to

    nne

    -22%

  • US$2 BILLION CAPEX PROGRAMME SINCE IPO DELIVERING BENEFITS TO CONSUMPTION NORMS

    Electricity consumption (kWh/t pellets) Gas (m3/t pellets)Grinding bodies (t/th.t pellets)

    8

    15.0

    15.5

    16.0

    16.5

    17.0

    17.5

    18.0

    18.5

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    4.5

    5.0

    5.5

    6.0

    2007

    2008

    2009

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    Project (US$M) 2014 2013 Status

    Capacity upgrade project 37 20 Complete

    Sustaining capex (incl. logistics) 43 67

    Total sustaining capex 80 87

    Quality upgrade project 44 47 Complete 1Q 2015

    FYM 74 100 Complete

    Logistics 18 20 Complete

    Other projects 19 24 Complete

    Total development capex 155 191

    Total capex 235 278

    MAJOR CAPEX PROGRAMMES DELIVERED

    CUP: modernisation complete

    QUP: final of 3 floatation units commissioned in 1Q 15 (c. US$3M)

    FYM: mining infrastructure complete

    November 2014 run rate 11.5 MTPA of pellets

    January 2015 1 MT pellet production, February 2015 all 65% pellet output

    M A J O R C A P E X P R O G R A M M E S C O M P L E T E D –

    1 2 M T PA C A PA C I T Y A C H I E V E D

    140

    150

    160

    170

    180

    190

    200

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

  • 9

    C A S H F L O W S 2 0 1 4 V S . 2 0 1 3

    US$M (unless otherwise stated) 2014 2013 % Change

    EBITDA 496 506 (2%)

    Non cash operating forex gain (76) (1) n/a

    Interest, tax & working capital (132) (272) (51%)

    Net cash flows from operating activities 288 233 24%

    Sustaining capex (80) (87) (8%)

    Free cash flow 208 146 42%

    Development capex (155) (191) (21%)

    Dividend (77) (78) -

    Acquisition - (82) n/a

    Other (15) (10) n/a

    Change in net debt (39) (215) (82%)

    Net debt at period end (678) (639) (6%)

    Net debt to EBITDA (x) 1.4 1.3 -

    Cash balance at period end 627 390 60%

    EBITDA flat year on year

    Working capital reflects VAT refunds

    Sustaining capex in-line with historic run rate

    42% increase in free cash flow

    Growth projects complete

    Drawdown of PXF facility in 2H 2014 increased liquidity

    Strong credit metrics maintained, net debt to EBITDA 1.4x

    1US$54M bond prepayment as announced on 23 February 2015

  • L I Q U I D I T Y A N D F I N A N C I N G 2 0 1 4 V S . 2 0 1 3

    10

    US$M (unless otherwise stated) Net debt Gross debt

    Opening net debt - 1 January 2014 (639) (1,029)

    Movement in net debt (39)

    Debt facilities repaid 119

    New debt facilities (393)

    Closing net debt – 31 December 2014 (678) (1,305)

    627

    54

    573

    300

    273

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    Cas

    h 31

    /12/

    14

    Pai

    d to

    bond

    hold

    ers

    24.2

    .15

    Pro

    form

    a ca

    sh

    2015

    /1Q

    201

    6ba

    nkam

    ortis

    atio

    n

    Pro

    form

    a ca

    sh210

    PROFORMA CASH & CORE NET DEBT – POST BOND EXCHANGE

    0

    100

    200

    300

    400

    500

    600

    700

    2015/ 1Q2016

    Apr-16 Rest 2016 2017 2018 2019

    Bank Bond

    Debt maturity flat

    Net debt increased by US$39M – losses on VAT

    Main debt maturity US$286M April 2016 Eurobond

    Diversified sources of funding (bond, PXF, ECA/leasing)

    US

    $286

    M

    BA

    NK

    US

    $M US

    $M

    PRO FORMA GROSS DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AT 31 DECEMBER 2014

  • C O N C L U S I O N T O F I N A N C I A L R E V I E W

    11

    Strong financial performance

    Market weakness mitigated by:

    Higher volume & quality

    Improved pellet premiums

    Index based pricing

    Improved efficiency

    Currency devaluation

    Growth projects successfully completed

    Net debt reflects completion of projects

    Maintained healthy credit metrics

    Debt repayment profile well matched to cash flow

  • 12

    B U S I N E S S U P D AT E

    K O S T YA N T I N Z H E VA G O , C E O

  • 13

    2 0 1 4 : D E C L I N E I N I R O N O R E F I N E S P R I C E S B U T P E L L E T

    P R E M I U M S I N C R E A S E

    INCREASE IN PRICE GAP BETWEEN FINES & PELLETS IN 2014

    Exports of Iron Ore (MT) 2000 2014Increase

    (MT)

    Proportion of

    increase

    Pellets 106 144 38 4%

    Lump 93 207 144 12%

    Sinter fines 265 1,016 751 78%

    Pellet feed 18 73 55 6%

    Total 482 1,440 958

    Avg annual world GDP growth (2000 to 2014) 3.7%

    Pellet exports (MT) 2014

    Vale 26.8

    Samarco 23.2

    LKAB 21.3

    Metalloinvest 13.9

    Ferrexpo 11.0

    Rio Tinto (IOC) 8.3

    Cliffs 6.0

    Total 143.7

    % of top 7 exporters 74%

    Costs normalised to basis of 62% sinter fines CFR Qingdao1CRU PELLET COST CURVE ANALYSIS, average 2014

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    0 50 100 150 200 250 300

    Cumulative production, M tonnes, 2014 Source: CRU Iron Ore Cost Model 2014

    Samarco

    Vale(average) Ferrexpo

    LKAB(average)

    Cliffs(average)

    US

    $ pe

    r to

    nne

    1These costs curves are based on CRU’s “business costs”. This includes site operating costs of the mining operation, the realisation costs associated with transporting products to market,

    sales and marketing expenses, the financing of inventories, goods in transit and receivables, as well as any discount or premium associated with product quality compared with the

    benchmark product. The concept of business costs permits a more direct comparison among different products produced in different locations.

    40

    60

    80

    100

    120

    140

    160

    18065% Fe fines FOB 65% Fe pellets FOB

    Source: Platts, Metal Bulletin

    US

    $ pe

    r to

    nne

  • 14

    2007 2014

    Mines FPM FPM & FYM

    Pellet output 9MT 11MT (31% from FYM)

    Logistics

    110 rail cars

    Acquired berth at TIS Ruda port in May 2007 (5MTPA capacity)

    0 capes loaded

    No barging operations

    2,200 rail cars

    Shipped a record 6.3MT through port

    22 capes loaded

    139 strong barging fleet

    Customer diversification

    77% to Traditional markets (of which 25% in Ukraine)

    2% to Natural markets

    21% to Growth markets

    49% to Traditional markets (zero Ukraine)

    16% to Natural markets

    35% to Growth markets

    Pricing Negotiated 100% index based

    Revenue US$698M US$1,388M

    C1 cost US$32 per tonne US$46 per tonne

    EBITDA US$246M US$496M

    # of employees 10,112 9,658

    Modernisation of facilities Average monthly pellet output c.750kt 12MTPA capacity in place, 1MT pellet output achieved in January 2015

    Processing capacity41% of production FPP

    One floatation unit in operation

    53% of production FPP, ramping up

    Capacity in place to produce all FPP (65% Fe) – 100% FPP output in

    February 2015

    S I G N I F I C A N T P R O G R E S S S I N C E I P O :

    R E V E N U E & E B I T D A D O U B L E D , A S S E T B A S E W E L L I N V E S T E D

    US$2 BILLION RE-INVESTED INTO THE BUSINESS SINCE IPO IN 2007

  • F E R R E X P O W E L L P O S I T I O N E D T O C O N T I N U E T O G E N E R AT E

    P O S I T I V E C A S H F L O W

    151For indicative purposes only does not represent Ferrexpo’s received price

    Stable pellet premiums

    C3 freight 2015 forward curve c. US$14 per tonne, improving net back price

    Higher production

    Improvement in pellet quality

    Lower costs due to higher output & devaluation

    Benefit from lower oil price – Brent average YTD US$53 per barrel (2014 avg US$99

    per barrel

    Lower average iron ore benchmark prices

    Ukrainian inflation (railway tariffs, electricity, wages)

    BEHAVIOUR OF MARGIN & COSTS THROUGH THE CYCLE:

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    US

    $ pe

    r to

    nne

    CRU historic price curve for 65% Fe FOB Tubarao pellets1

    Ferrexpo FOB costs

  • 16

    U K R A I N E

  • U K R A I N E

    Uncertain operating environment but progress has been made:

    Introduction of flexible exchange rate

    VAT refunds reintroduced

    But still some difficulties:

    Prepaid corporate profit tax

    Inflation

    Weak Ukrainian banking sector

    International support

    IMF US$17.5 billion loan package announced in February 2015

    17

  • S T R AT E G Y I N T H E C U R R E N T E N V I R O N M E N T

    Increase production & quality

    Improve operating costs, efficiency and competitiveness of the operations

    Continue to finalise new long term contracts with premium steel mills

    Refinance prudently

    Target prudent balance sheet ratios - net debt levels commensurate with forecast long term iron ore prices

    Invest where adequate returns can be made and financial resources are available

    Pay dividends commensurate with earnings and balance sheet capacity

    18

    IN LINE WITH OUR CASH GENERATION ABILITY, OUR PRIORITIES ARE TO:

  • 19

    A P P E N D I X

  • 20

    A W O R L D C L A S S P E L L E T P R O D U C E R

    LONG LIFE RESOURCE ESTABLISHED LOGISTICS CAPABILITY

    PREMIUM GLOBAL CUSTOMER PORTFOLIO

    BR

    OV

    AR

    IKO

    VS

    KO

    YE

    4.0BT

    MA

    NU

    ILO

    VS

    KO

    YE

    3.4BT

    KH

    AR

    CH

    EN

    KO

    VS

    KO

    YE

    2.8BT

    VA

    SIL

    IEV

    SK

    OY

    E

    1.4BT

    ZA

    RU

    DE

    NS

    KO

    YE

    1.5BT

    GA

    LE

    SC

    HIN

    SK

    OY

    E

    0.2BT

    BE

    LA

    NO

    VS

    KO

    YE

    1.7BT

    MIN

    E LIF

    E –

    XX

    YE

    AR

    S

    YE

    RIS

    TO

    VS

    KO

    YE

    1.2BT

    MIN

    E LIF

    E –

    23 YE

    AR

    S

    13.1 6.7FSU SOVIET

    CLASSIFIED

    RESOURCES

    JORC

    CLASSIFIED

    RESOURCES

    GO

    RIS

    HN

    E-P

    LA

    VN

    INS

    KO

    YE

    & L

    AV

    RIK

    OV

    SK

    OY

    E

    3.5BT

    MIN

    E LIF

    E –

    25 YE

    AR

    S

    PRODUCTION

    DEVELOPMENT

    LICENCE MAINTENANCE

    EASTERN & CENTRAL EUROPE

    CHINA

    NORTH EAST ASIA

    WESTERN EUROPE

    TURKEY, MIDDLE EAST & INDIA

    25%

    8%

    10%

    49%

    8%

    105

    278

    86

    167

    380

    430

    278

    232

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

    US$2BN CAPITAL INVESTMENT SINCE IPO

    US

    $M

  • 21

    R E C O N C I L I AT I O N O F E B I T D A T O P R O F I T F R O M C O N T I N U I N G

    O P E R AT I O N S B E F O R E A D J U S T E D I T E M S

    US$M (unless otherwise stated) 2014 2013

    EBITDA 496.3 505.9

    Share-based payments (0.5) (1.3)

    Losses on disposal of PPE (4.8) (8.5)

    Write-down of VAT receivable (6.8) (36.4)

    Depreciation (82.3) (99.6)

    Impairment (83.5) (0.9)

    Profit before tax & finance 318.4 359.2

    Tax (70.4) (41.6)

    Non-operating forex (14.8) 9.8

    Net interest expense (49.2) (63.6)

    Profit from continuing operations before adjusted items 183.8 263.8