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Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification of Climate Change. Spatial Sink. Geo- thermal energy. Temperature. Solar energy. Radiative Forcing. Contrails & Aerosols. Cloud Effects. Albedo Effect. Other GHGs Concentration. Carbon Dioxide Concentration. Methane Concentration. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Feedback Dynamics Feedback Dynamics & the Amplification & the Amplification of Climate Changeof Climate Change
At equilibrium,energy received
just balances the amount of energy radiated back to space
Increase in GHGconcentration raises
efficiency of insulating envelope,reducing net global radiation
Increase in GHGconcentration raises
efficiency of insulating envelope,reducing net global radiation
Surfacetemperature
rises, driven byretained solar energy
until resultantradiation recoversto establish a new
thermal equilibrium
Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs.
Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs.
Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs,and feedbacks are also pushing
the system even further from balance
Except that weare accelerating the
accumulation of GHGs,and feedbacks are also pushing
the system even further from balance
Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
Geo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
Temperature
RadiativeForcing
MethaneConcentration
Carbon DioxideConcentration
Water VapourConcentration
Other GHGsConcentration
AlbedoEffect
Contrails &Aerosols
CloudEffects
F.1
F.2
F.3 F.4
F.5
F.6
F.GGeo-thermalenergy
Solarenergy
Spatial Sink
F.R
F.Ti
Thermal InertiaThermal Inertia
T h eT h e
P r o j e c tP r o j e c t
Feedback Dynamics Feedback Dynamics SimulatorSimulator
NRINRI(t)
The value of Net Radiative Imbalance at time (t) is governed by:
3: Consequential Feedback at time (t)
4: Radiative Damping Coefficient x ΔTt
1: Change in Solar Radiance from (t0) to (t)
2: Anthropogenic Forcing at time (t)
ΔSRt RDC.ΔTt
AFt CFt
NRINRI(t)
The Core Structure
The Fundamental Equation
NRINRI(t)AFt CFtΔSRt RDC.ΔTt= + + -
Climate SensitivityClimate Sensitivity
Amplification of the AnthropogenicAmplification of the AnthropogenicDisturbance of the Climate SystemDisturbance of the Climate System
Wa
ter
Va
po
ur
Oz o
ne
Wa
ter
Va
po
ur
Ca
rbo
n D
iox
i de
0 1 1400.1 1.071773 150.04830.2 1.148698 160.81780.3 1.231144 172.3602
0.36 1.283426 179.67960.4 1.319508 184.73110.5 1.414214 197.98990.6 1.515717 212.20030.7 1.624505 227.43070.8 1.741101 243.75420.9 1.866066 261.2492
1 2 2801.1 2.143547 300.09661.2 2.297397 321.63551.3 2.462289 344.72041.4 2.639016 369.46221.5 2.828427 395.97981.6 3.031433 424.4006
1.65 3.138336 439.36711.7 3.24901 454.86131.8 3.482202 487.50831.9 3.732132 522.4985
2 4 560
Column 1
Incremental power
Column 2
2 raised to power
Column 3
Column 2 x 140
Semi-log (base 2) scale construction
Pre-Industrial Benchmark
Half Benchmark
Double Benchmark
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
180
440
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
440
180
*
*
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
Equilibrium Temperature for CO2 concentrations with no feedbacks°C °C
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180
*
*
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
Equilibrium Temperature for CO2 concentrations with fast feedbacks°C °C
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180
*
*
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with fast + C-cycle f-backs°C °C
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations + fast & some slow f-backs°C °C
Earth System Sensitivity?
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check:Mathematical Cross-Check:
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check:Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check: Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1
Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check:Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1
Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2
CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check:Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1
Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2
CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm-2
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check:Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1
Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2
CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm-2
Hence Amplification Factor = 6.49Amplification Factor = 6.49
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
*
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Engelbeen point: [534, 7.1]
Pagani point: [360, 3.0]
*
Ice Age Minimum point: [180, -5.0]
*
Pre-Industrial Benchmark: [280, -0]
Mathematical Cross-Check:Mathematical Cross-Check: Radiative Damping Coefficient = 3.3wm-2°C-1
Radiative increase (Ice-age minimum to Pre-Industrial Benchmark) = 16.5wm-2
CO2 contribution = 2.54wm-2 Feedback contribution = 13.96wm-2
Hence Amplification Factor = 6.49 Sensitivity = 7.79 Amplification Factor = 6.49 Sensitivity = 7.79 °°CC
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*350
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*350
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
Correlations and Consequences
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*350
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
690
°C
CO2
ppm0
4
6
8
2
12
14
16
10
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*350
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
1120
15.6
12
9
6
2.4
°C
600
643
739
792
849
910
975
1045
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
Equilibrium Temperatures up to second doubling of CO2 concentrations
690
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5
0
+4
+6
+8
+2
-2
-4
-6
-8
280
560
522
487
455
424
396
369
345
322
300
261
244
227
212
198
185
172
161
150
140
°C
CO2
ppm
*
*
440
180*
*
*
*
Hansen Upgrade: amplification x 5.0
Charney Sensitivity: amplification x 2.5
Hadley +C f-backs: amplification x 3.75
*
*
*
*
*350
NB. All lines refer to change that is slow and close to equilibrium
Those conditions no longer apply
CO2 only: amplification x 1.0
1.2
3
4.5
6
7.8
Equilibrium Temp. for CO2 concentrations with all system feedbacks°C °C
Earth System Sensitivity: amp. x 6.5