FEDERAL POLITICSAugust 21, 2019 August 31, 2019 LPC 18,91% 39,47% 49% 46% 42% 40% 38% 39% 34%31% 27% 29% 33% CPC 39,62% 31,89% 27% 25% 30% 34% 38% 36% 33%37% 40% …

DATE

Report

NUMÉRO DE PROJET

FEDERAL POLITICS

August 31st, 2019

2

METHODOLOGY

METHODOLOGY

Web survey using computer-assisted Web interviewing (CAWI) technology.

From August 27th to August 29th, 2019

2,102 Canadians, 18 years of age or older, who have the right to vote in Canada, randomly recruited fromLegerWeb’s online panel.

Using data from the 2016 Census, results were weighted according to age, gender, mother tongue, region and levelof education in order to ensure a representative sample of the population.

No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (Web panel in this case). However forcomparative purposes, a probability sample of 2,102 respondents would have a margin of error of ±2.14%, 19 timesout of 20.

3

METHODOLOGY

Notes on Reading this Report

The numbers presented have been rounded up. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate thesums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers.

In this report, data in bold red characters indicate a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents.Conversely, data in bold green characters indicate a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents.

A more detailed methodology is presented in the annex.

If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate andExecutive Vice-Present at the following e-mail address: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

4

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONSQ1A/Q1B. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...?In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...

Base: All respondents, except for Yves-François Blanchet, Quebecers only (n=1,001)

TOTAL Eligible voters

TOTALDecided voters

ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+July 25,

2019

Varia-tion

Weighted n = 2,102 1,732 117 412 673 113 194 225 902 830 462 579 692 1,255

Unweighted n = 2,102 1,767 85 837 514 107 107 117 934 833 430 634 703 1,285

...Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada

28% 34% 48% 34% 39% 20% 17% 35% 36% 32% 33% 30% 38% 33% +1

...Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada

27% 33% 31% 23% 32% 51% 60% 27% 36% 30% 30% 35% 34% 33% -

...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada

10% 12% 15% 11% 11% 12% 9% 14% 9% 15% 11% 13% 10% 13% -1

...Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada

10% 12% 3% 7% 15% 11% 9% 19% 10% 14% 19% 11% 8% 11% +1

...Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois

4% 5% - 20% - - - - 4% 5% 2% 5% 7% 4% +1

...Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada

3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4% 4% 2% 4% -1

…for another party 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% -

I would not vote 4% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I would cancel my vote 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I don’t know 9% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Refusal 3% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS IN QUEBEC

TOTAL Eligible voters

TOTALDecided voters

Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+MTL CMA

QC City CMA

Rest of QC

FrancoNon

FrancoMarch

13, 2019Vari-ation

n pondéré = 493 412 215 197 98 137 177 210 39 162 317 94 781

n absolu = 1,001 837 424 413 190 313 334 347 242 248 651 186 819


29% 34% 36% 32% 33% 28% 40% 39% 28% 29% 28% 54% 35% -1


19% 23% 28% 18% 23% 24% 22% 18% 35% 26% 23% 24% 26% -3

...Yves-François Blanchet’sBloc Québécois

17% 20% 18% 22% 10% 20% 26% 20% 15% 22% 25% 3% 17% +3


9% 11% 8% 14% 17% 12% 8% 13% 11% 10% 13% 7% 9% +2


6% 7% 5% 9% 12% 7% 4% 7% 3% 8% 6% 9% 7% -


3% 4% 5% 3% 4% 6% 1% 2% 7% 5% 4% 3% 4% -

…for another party 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% -

I would not vote 3% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I would cancel my vote 3% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I don’t know 10% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Refusal 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Q1A/Q1B. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...?In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...

Base: Quebecers

TRENDS IN VOTING INTENTIONS IN CANADA

6

Elec. 2011 Elec. 2015Feb. 9,2016

May 20,2017

Oct. 28,2018

Dec. 2,2018

March 10,2018

May 16,2018

Nov. 26,2018

Feb. 20,2019

March 20,2019

April 28,2019

June 13,2019

July 25,2019

August21, 2019

August31, 2019

LPC 18,91% 39,47% 49% 46% 42% 40% 38% 39% 39% 34% 31% 27% 29% 33% 33% 34%

CPC 39,62% 31,89% 27% 25% 30% 34% 38% 36% 33% 36% 37% 40% 38% 36% 33% 33%

NDP 30,63% 19,71% 15% 16% 15% 13% 14% 15% 14% 12% 14% 12% 13% 11% 11% 12%

BQ 6,04% 4,66% 3% 5% 4% 4% 5% 2% 4% 5% 4% 5% 4% 4% 4% 5%

GPC 3,91% 3,45% 5% 6% 7% 8% 3% 6% 5% 8% 10% 11% 11% 12% 13% 12%

PPC 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3%

Others 0,89% 0,82% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Others

7

PARTY FOR WHICH THEY WOULD NEVER VOTE

Q1C. And is there a Federal political party you would never vote for?

Base: All respondents (n=2,102), except for the Bloc Québécois, Quebecers only (n=1,001)

23%

20%

16%

10%

6%

4%

2%

21%

25%

19%

13%

8%

8%

4%

2%

20%

Another party

DNK / Refusal

August 31st, 2019 (n=2,102) July 25th, 2019 (n=1,536)

8


Base: All respondents, except for le Bloc Québécois, Quebecers only (n=1,001)

PARTY FOR WHICH THEY WOULD NEVER VOTE– DETAILED RESULTS

TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+

Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806


23% 15% 18% 20% 34% 42% 18% 22% 23% 21% 25% 21%


20% 18% 19% 23% 13% 10% 23% 19% 20% 22% 18% 20%


16% 21% 17% 16% 16% 13% 14% 20% 12% 13% 13% 21%


10% 8% 6% 12% 12% 10% 9% 12% 8% 7% 11% 10%

...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 6% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 6%


4% - 17% - - - - 4% 4% 3% 4% 5%

…for another party 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 5% 1% 2% 1% 3% 1%

Don’t know 17% 23% 12% 17% 15% 15% 20% 13% 20% 24% 16% 11%

Prefer not to answer 4% 6% 2% 4% 4% 5% 4% 2% 6% 2% 5% 4%

PARTY FOR WHICH THEY WOULD NEVER VOTE– BY VOTING INTENTIONS

9

TOTAL LPC CPC GPC NDP PPC

Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68


23% - 49% 20% 20% 57%


20% 38% - 30% 38% 4%


16% 26% 11% 20% 20% -


10% 10% 16% 12% - 20%

...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 6% 6% 10% - 7% 14%


4% 7% 4% 2% 2% 4%

…for another party 2% 1% 1% 4% 2% 0%

Don’t know 17% 11% 8% 11% 11% 0%

Prefer not to answer 4% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%


Base: Respondents who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC or the GPC

10

POSSIBILITY TO VOTE FOR THE GREEN PARTY IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS

35%

48%

16%

Possible Out of the question DNK / Refusal


Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806

Possible 35% 33% 33% 35% 33% 26% 48% 34% 37% 43% 37% 28%

Out of the question 48% 44% 54% 48% 51% 51% 40% 56% 42% 41% 45% 58%

Do not know / Refusal 16% 22% 13% 17% 16% 23% 12% 11% 22% 16% 19% 14%

Q8. On October 21st, is it possible or out of the question that you will vote for the Green Party of Canada?

Base: All respondents (n=2,102)

11

POSSIBILITY TO VOTE FOR THE GREEN PARTY IN THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS – BY VOTING INTENTION


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

Possible 35% 35% 21% 96% 40% 37%

Out of the question 48% 54% 71% 4% 47% 58%

Do not know / Refusal 16% 11% 8% 1% 13% 5%

Q8. On October 21st, is it possible or out of the question that you will vote for the Green Party of Canada?


6%

30%

27%

30%

6%

5%

31%

25%

34%

5%

Very satisfied

Somewhat satisfied

Somewhat dissatisfied

Very dissatisfied

I don't know / Refusal


12

NET SA

TISFIEDN

ET DISSA

TISFIED

August 31st, 2019 July 25th, 2019

August 31st, 2019 July 25th, 2019

37% 36%

57% 58%

Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau?

Base: All respondents

SATISFACTION WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

13



SATISFACTION WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT– DETAILED RESULTS


Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806

NET SATISFIED 37% 49% 42% 40% 28% 18% 32% 38% 36% 42% 32% 37%

Very satisfied 6% 8% 5% 9% 5% 3% 5% 8% 5% 9% 5% 6%

Somewhat satisfied 30% 41% 37% 32% 24% 15% 26% 30% 30% 34% 27% 31%

NET DISSATISFIED 57% 42% 53% 54% 67% 78% 60% 57% 57% 50% 61% 59%

Somewhat dissatisfied 27% 17% 29% 25% 25% 24% 36% 25% 29% 26% 29% 25%

Very dissatisfied 30% 26% 24% 29% 43% 54% 24% 33% 28% 24% 32% 34%

I don’t know 4% 7% 5% 3% 3% 4% 7% 3% 6% 7% 5% 2%

Refusal 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%

SATISFACTION WITH THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT– BY VOTING INTENTIONS

14


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

NET SATISFIED 37% 82% 11% 30% 35% 13%

Very satisfied 6% 18% 2% 3% 3% 2%

Somewhat satisfied 30% 63% 9% 28% 32% 11%

NET DISSATISFIED 57% 16% 87% 69% 61% 87%

Somewhat dissatisfied 27% 15% 25% 42% 39% 17%

Very dissatisfied 30% 1% 62% 27% 22% 69%

I don’t know 4% 2% 1% 0% 4% 0%

Refusal 2% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%



15

TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT’S TRACK RECORD

21%

28%

46%

5%

Rather positive Neither positive nornegative

Rather negative DNK / Refusal


Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806

Rather positive 21% 37% 20% 23% 14% 11% 22% 23% 20% 24% 18% 23%

Neither positive nor negative 28% 19% 39% 27% 26% 13% 25% 28% 27% 31% 27% 25%

Rather negative 46% 31% 37% 44% 56% 69% 47% 46% 46% 38% 48% 49%


Q7. When you think of the 4 years of the Trudeau government, is the government's track record rather positive, rather negative or neither positive nor negative?


16

TRUDEAU GOVERNMENT’S TRACK RECORD– BY VOTING INTENTION


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

Rather positive 21% 56% 3% 18% 15% 9%

Neither positive nor negative 28% 37% 16% 26% 36% 7%

Rather negative 46% 7% 80% 53% 48% 83%


Q7. When you think of the 4 years of the Trudeau government, is the government's track record rather positive, rather negative or neither positive nor negative?


17

BEST PRIME MINISTER

Q3. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?


Note: The complement to 100% corresponds to “Other,” None of them,” “I don’t know” and “Refusal” responses.

Variation June 25th,

2019

19% 8% 6%26% 4%(-5)(+3) (-1) (-)(-1)

18

31%

48%

21%

30%

51%

18%

Yes No DNK / Not sure



Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806

Yes 31% 39% 34% 35% 16% 18% 29% 34% 28% 31% 28% 34%

No 48% 34% 46% 44% 64% 68% 42% 50% 45% 45% 50% 48%

Do not know / Not sure 21% 27% 20% 21% 20% 14% 29% 16% 27% 24% 22% 19%

SECOND MANDATE FOR THE LIBERALS?Q4. In your view, do you feel the Liberals deserve a second mandate?


19

SECOND MANDATE FOR THE LIBERALS?– BY VOTING INTENTION


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

Yes 31% 83% 4% 14% 28% 4%

No 48% 5% 85% 59% 47% 87%

Do not know / Not sure 21% 12% 11% 27% 25% 9%

Q4. In your view, do you feel the Liberals deserve a second mandate?


20

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY'S ABILITY TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT

34%

45%

22%

Yes No DNK / Refusal


Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806

Yes 34% 29% 29% 33% 43% 50% 28% 41% 27% 36% 33% 32%

No 45% 46% 47% 49% 32% 32% 47% 46% 44% 41% 43% 49%


Q9. In your view, is the Conservative Party of Canada ready to form the government?


21

THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY'S ABILITY TO FORM THE GOVERNMENT – BY VOTING INTENTION


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

Yes 34% 15% 85% 9% 14% 50%

No 45% 76% 5% 76% 69% 25%


Q9. In your view, is the Conservative Party of Canada ready to form the government?


22

LEADERS’ DEBATES IMPORTANCE IN THEIR DECISION TO SUPPORT A PARTY

46%43%

12%

Yes, they are important No, they are not important DNK / Refusal


Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1 081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1 063 528 768 806

Yes, they are important 46% 43% 50% 46% 47% 43% 42% 46% 45% 53% 44% 42%

No, they are not important 43% 44% 44% 42% 39% 44% 43% 46% 40% 29% 46% 49%


Q5. Are the leaders' debates on television important or not in your decision to support one party or another?


23

LEADERS’ DEBATES IMPORTANCE IN THEIR DECISION TO SUPPORT A PARTY – BY VOTING INTENTION


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

Yes, they are important 46% 52% 43% 53% 58% 59%

No, they are not important 43% 42% 50% 39% 32% 41%


Q5. Are the leaders' debates on television important or not in your decision to support one party or another?


24

PARTICIPATION OF MAXIME BERNIER IN THE LEADERS’ DEBATES

52%

24%

24%

Yes No DNK / Refusal


Weighted n = 2,102 144 493 807 137 236 285 1,021 1,081 567 723 812

Unweighted n = 2,102 100 1,001 601 125 125 150 1,039 1,063 528 768 806

Yes 52% 49% 50% 54% 48% 55% 49% 54% 50% 52% 52% 52%

No 24% 23% 31% 21% 25% 20% 24% 31% 18% 18% 22% 30%


Q6. In your opinion, should Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, participate in the leaders' debates or not?


25

PARTICIPATION OF MAXIME BERNIER IN THE LEADERS’ DEBATES – BY VOTING INTENTION


Weighted n = 2,102 591 576 202 202 56

Unweighted n = 2,102 611 536 202 178 68

Yes 52% 52% 57% 61% 47% 92%

No 24% 30% 25% 23% 31% 4%


Q6. In your opinion, should Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, participate in the leaders' debates or not?


26

BEST POSITIONED PARTI TO DEFEND QUEBEC’S INTERESTS

Q10. Which of the following political parties is best positioned to defend Québec's interests?

Base: Quebecers (n=1,001)

31%

20%

11%

5%

3%

2%

9%

18%

None

DNK / Refusal

27


Base: Quebecers

BEST POSITIONED PARTI TO DEFEND QUEBEC’S INTERESTS – DETAILED RESULTS

TOTAL Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+

Weighted n = 493 240 253 126 165 202

Unweighted n = 1,001 468 533 245 375 381


31% 35% 28% 20% 33% 37%


20% 22% 19% 19% 15% 26%


11% 13% 9% 8% 10% 13%


5% 7% 2% 8% 5% 2%

...Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 3% 3% 3% 6% 2% 2%


2% 2% 2% 3% 4% 1%

None 9% 8% 10% 9% 13% 6%

Don’t know / Refusal 18% 10% 26% 27% 18% 13%

BEST POSITIONED PARTI TO DEFEND QUEBEC’S INTERESTS – BY VOTING INTENTION

28

TOTAL LPC CPC BQ GPC NDP PPC

n pondéré = 493 141 95 83 46 29 15

n absolu = 1,001 278 209 152 98 57 37


31% 19% 19% 92% 44% 19% 5%


20% 61% 4% 0% 5% 17% 0%


11% 1% 50% 1% 1% 2% 4%


5% 2% 7% 0% 2% 2% 64%


3% 1% 0% 0% 24% 4% 4%


2% 0% 1% 0% 3% 28% 0%

None 9% 5% 9% 0% 6% 16% 23%

Don’t know / Refusal 18% 10% 10% 6% 15% 12% 0%


Base: Quebecers who intend to vote for the LPC, the NDP, the CPC, the PPC, the GPC or the BQ

APPENDIX

DETAILED METHODOLOGY

30

Sampling Frame

Participants were randomly selected from LegerWeb’s online panel.

Leger owns and manages an Internet panel that includes more than 400,000 Canadians coast to coast. An online panel consists of Webusers profiled according to different demographic variables. The majority of Leger’s panel members (60%) were randomly recruitedover the phone in the past ten years, which makes this panel very similar to the current Canadian population on a number ofdemographic characteristics. Moreover, 35% of panellists were recruited through affiliate programs and 5% through partner campaignsand programs.

To be eligible, respondents were required to be 18 years of age or older and have the right to vote in Canada.

31

Province Unweighted Weighted

British Columbia 150 285

Alberta 125 236

Saskatchewan 49 63

Manitoba 76 74

Ontario 601 807

Quebec 1,001 493

New Brunswick 44 46

Nova Scotia 27 57

Prince-Edward-Island 8 9

Newfoundland and Labrador 21 32


Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The table below presents the geographic distribution of respondents before weighting.

Weighted and Unweighted Sample

The following tables present the demographic distribution of respondents according to gender, age, language (mother tongue), level ofeducation and household income.

The sample thus collected has a minimum weighting factor of 0.079 and a maximum weighting factor of 4.742. The weighted varianceis 0.542.

32

GENDER Unweighted Weighted

Male 1,039 1,021Female 1,063 1,081

AGE Unweighted Weighted

Between 18 and 34 528 567Between 35 and 55 768 72355 or over 806 812

LANGUAGE (MOTHERTONGUE)

Unweighted Weighted

English 1,035 1,410French 831 437Other 233 250

EDUCATION Unweighted Weighted

Primary/secondary school 552 663

College 681 854

University 859 572


SURVEY

33

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION]Q0QC. In which province or territory do you live?

AT Q0QCG

A series of questions were then inserted here in order to identify where respondents were from more specifically.

Label Value Attribute Termination

British Columbia 1

Alberta 2

Saskatchewan 3

Manitoba 4

Ontario 5

Quebec 6

New Brunswick 7

Nova Scotia 8

Prince-Edward-Island 9

Newfoundland and Labrador 10

Northwest Territories 11

Yukon 12

Nunavut 13

SURVEY

34

[ASK ALL]

[SINGLE MENTION]

SEXE. Please indicate your sex:

Note: As indicated by Statistics Canada, transgender, transsexual, and intersex Canadians should indicate the sex (male or female) with

which they most associate themselves.

[ASK ALL]

[SINGLE MENTION]

AGE. How old are you?


Male 1

Female 2


Under 18 0 TERMINATE

Between 18 and 24 1

Between 25 and 34 2

Between 35 and 44 3

Between 45 and 54 4

Between 55 and 64 5

Between 65 and 74 6

75 or older 7

I prefer not to answer 99 TERMINATE

SURVEY

35

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER: In order]ELI1. Are you at least 18 years old and eligible to vote in Canada?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-6]Q1A. If FEDERAL elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...?


... Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party of Canada 1

... Jagmeet Singh's New Democratic Party of Canada 2

... Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois [QC respondents only] 3

... Andrew Scheer's Conservative Party of Canada 4

... Elizabeth May's Green Party of Canada 5

… Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6…another party 7 FI would not vote 8 FI would cancel my vote 9 FI don’t know 98 FI prefer not to answer 99 F

Label Value Attribute TerminationYes 1No 2 TERMINATE

SURVEY

36

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-6]Q1B. Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for…?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER: Rotation 1-6]Q1C. And it there a Federal political party you would never vote for?




... Yves François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois [QC respondents only] 3



… Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6…another party 7 FI would not vote 8 FI would cancel my vote 9 FI don’t know 98 FI prefer not to answer 99 F




... Yves François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois [QC respondents only] 3



… Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6…another party 7 FI don’t know 8 FI prefer not to answer 9 F

SURVEY

37

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q2. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : Random 1-5]Q3. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?


Justin Trudeau 1

Jagmeet Singh 2

Andrew Scheer 3

Elizabeth May 4

Maxime Bernier 5

Other 6

None 7

I don’t know 98 F

Prefer not to answer 99 F


Very satisfied 1

Somewhat satisfied 2

Somewhat dissatisfied 3

Very dissatisfied 4

I don’t know 98 F

Prefer not to answer 99 F

SURVEY

38

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q4. In your view, do you feel the Liberals deserve a second mandate?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q5. Are the leaders' debates on television important or not in your decision to support one party or another?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q6. In your opinion, should Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, participate in the leaders' debates or not?


Yes 1

No 2

I don’t know / I’m not sure 98 F


Yes, they are important 1

No, they are not important 2

I don’t know / I prefer not to answer 98 F


Yes 1

No 2


SURVEY

39

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q7 When you think of the 4 years of the Trudeau government, is the government's track record rather positive, rather negative or neither positive nor negative?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q8. On October 21, is it possible or out of the question that you will vote for the Green Party of Canada?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : In order]Q9. In your view, is the Conservative Party of Canada ready to form the government?


Rather positive 1

Neither positive nor negative 2

Rather negative 98 F

I don’t know / I prefer not to answer


Possible 1

Out of the question 2



Yes 1

No 2


SURVEY

40

[ASK QUEBECERS ONLY][SINGLE MENTION][LIST ORDER : Rotation 1-6]Q10. Which of the following political parties is best positioned to defend Québec's interests?

[ASK ALL][SINGLE MENTION] SCOL. What is the highest level of education that you have completed (diploma obtained)?




... Yves François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois 3



… Maxime Bernier’s People's Party of Canada 6

None 8



Elementary 1

High school: general or vocational training 2

College: general pre-university programs or technical programs 3

University 4

I prefer not to answer 9

SURVEY

41

[ASK ALL]

[SINGLE MENTION]

LANGU. What is the language you first learned at home in your childhood and that you still understand?

[ASK ALL]

[SINGLE MENTION]

ENFAN. Are there any children under 18 years old living in your household?


French 1

English 2

Other 3

English and French 7

French and other 4

English and other 5

Other and other 6



Yes 1

No 2


CROSSED TABLES

42

FED - Federal voting intentions with leaners

No:1 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) FRANCOPHONE REGION FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS

B1 Total Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 18-34 35-54 55+ Yes No Atlantic Québec Ontario Prairies Alberta BC LPC NDP BQ CPC GPC PPC Other

FED

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22

Unweighted Total : 2102 1039 1063 210 318 345 423 363 443 528 768 806 831 1268 100 1001 601 125 125 150 611 178 156 532 202 68 20

LPC 28% 32% 25% 29% 25% 24% 25% 33% 32% 27% 24% 33% 26% 29% 39% 29% 32% 16% 14% 27% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

NDP 10% 9% 11% 14% 16% 12% 6% 6% 7% 15% 9% 6% 5% 11% 2% 6% 12% 9% 7% 15% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

BQ 4% 4% 4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2% 4% 6% 18% 0% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%

CPC 27% 32% 23% 22% 26% 26% 29% 25% 32% 25% 28% 29% 19% 30% 25% 19% 26% 42% 49% 21% 0% 0% 3% 100% 0% 0% 0%

GPC 10% 8% 11% 13% 7% 11% 10% 9% 9% 9% 11% 9% 10% 9% 12% 9% 9% 10% 7% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

PPC 3% 4% 2% 1% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%

...another party 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

I would not vote 4% 4% 4% 7% 6% 5% 3% 4% 2% 6% 4% 3% 3% 5% 3% 3% 5% 1% 4% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

I would cancel my vote 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

I don't know 9% 5% 14% 12% 8% 9% 13% 10% 6% 9% 11% 8% 10% 9% 11% 10% 8% 13% 9% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

I prefer not to answer 3% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4% 4% 2% 3% 5% 1% 3% 4% 5% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

FEDX - Federal voting intentions among decided



FEDX

Weighted Total 1732 902 830 181 280 274 305 301 391 462 579 692 362 1369 117 412 673 113 194 225 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


LPC 34% 36% 32% 36% 31% 29% 31% 40% 36% 33% 30% 38% 31% 35% 48% 34% 39% 20% 17% 35% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

NDP 12% 10% 14% 17% 20% 15% 7% 8% 7% 19% 11% 8% 6% 13% 3% 7% 15% 11% 9% 19% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

BQ 5% 4% 5% 1% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 2% 5% 7% 22% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%

CPC 33% 36% 30% 28% 32% 32% 37% 31% 37% 30% 35% 34% 23% 36% 31% 23% 32% 51% 60% 27% 0% 0% 3% 100% 0% 0% 0%

GPC 12% 9% 15% 16% 8% 14% 13% 11% 10% 11% 13% 10% 12% 11% 15% 11% 11% 12% 9% 14% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%

PPC 3% 4% 2% 1% 5% 4% 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 2% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%

Other 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%

CROSSED TABLES (CONTINUED)

43

And is there a federal political party you would never vote for?



CP1C

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22



23% 22% 23% 16% 25% 27% 23% 21% 21% 21% 25% 21% 21% 23% 15% 18% 20% 34% 42% 18% 0% 20% 27% 49% 20% 57% 24%


10% 12% 8% 7% 7% 12% 10% 8% 12% 7% 11% 10% 7% 11% 8% 6% 12% 12% 10% 9% 10% 0% 8% 16% 12% 20% 3%

...Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois

4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 6% 3% 4% 5% 11% 2% 0% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0% 7% 2% 1% 4% 2% 4% 0%


20% 19% 20% 24% 20% 16% 19% 22% 18% 22% 18% 20% 20% 19% 18% 19% 23% 13% 10% 23% 38% 38% 25% 0% 30% 4% 19%


6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 6% 9% 4% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 5% 10% 0% 14% 8%


16% 20% 12% 13% 12% 14% 13% 17% 24% 13% 13% 21% 19% 15% 21% 17% 16% 16% 13% 14% 26% 20% 25% 11% 20% 0% 6%

...another party 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 4% 1% 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 5% 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% 0% 20%

I don't know 17% 13% 20% 27% 23% 16% 17% 13% 10% 24% 16% 11% 12% 18% 23% 12% 17% 15% 15% 20% 11% 11% 8% 8% 11% 0% 21%


Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau?



CP2

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


TOTAL SATISFIED 37% 38% 36% 44% 41% 31% 33% 40% 35% 42% 32% 37% 41% 36% 49% 42% 40% 28% 18% 32% 82% 35% 29% 11% 30% 13% 9%

Very satisfied 6% 8% 5% 9% 8% 6% 4% 7% 6% 9% 5% 6% 4% 7% 8% 5% 9% 5% 3% 5% 18% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 0%

Somewhat satisfied 30% 30% 30% 35% 33% 25% 29% 33% 29% 34% 27% 31% 36% 29% 41% 37% 32% 24% 15% 26% 63% 32% 26% 9% 28% 11% 9%

TOTAL DISSATISFIED 57% 57% 57% 45% 53% 62% 60% 56% 62% 50% 61% 59% 54% 58% 42% 53% 54% 67% 78% 60% 16% 61% 67% 88% 69% 87% 79%

Somewhat dissatisfied 27% 25% 29% 27% 25% 26% 32% 24% 26% 26% 29% 25% 30% 26% 17% 29% 25% 25% 24% 36% 15% 39% 35% 25% 42% 17% 30%

Very dissatisfied 30% 33% 28% 18% 28% 36% 28% 31% 36% 24% 32% 34% 24% 32% 26% 24% 29% 43% 54% 24% 1% 22% 32% 63% 27% 69% 49%

I don’t know 4% 3% 6% 9% 5% 5% 5% 3% 2% 7% 5% 2% 4% 5% 7% 5% 3% 3% 4% 7% 2% 4% 3% 1% 0% 0% 12%



44

In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?



CP3

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Justin Trudeau 26% 29% 23% 25% 19% 24% 25% 30% 29% 22% 24% 30% 28% 25% 39% 30% 28% 14% 14% 21% 78% 9% 18% 3% 8% 5% 3%

Jagmeet Singh 6% 6% 7% 13% 9% 6% 5% 5% 4% 10% 5% 5% 3% 7% 3% 4% 9% 7% 4% 9% 2% 48% 3% 2% 5% 0% 0%

Andrew Scheer 19% 21% 17% 14% 13% 17% 19% 19% 28% 13% 18% 24% 16% 20% 17% 15% 17% 32% 37% 12% 0% 3% 6% 65% 2% 4% 0%

Elizabeth May 8% 8% 8% 8% 9% 10% 7% 7% 6% 9% 9% 6% 7% 8% 9% 7% 9% 5% 7% 8% 3% 7% 7% 3% 52% 1% 0%

Maxime Bernier 4% 6% 2% 4% 6% 4% 5% 3% 2% 5% 4% 2% 4% 4% 1% 5% 3% 7% 3% 6% 1% 0% 4% 5% 1% 61% 6%

Other 3% 3% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 3% 0% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 11% 2% 2% 0% 46%

None 12% 14% 9% 8% 15% 13% 14% 11% 9% 12% 14% 10% 15% 11% 7% 15% 13% 8% 11% 8% 5% 9% 30% 10% 14% 11% 23%

I don't know 20% 12% 28% 26% 24% 20% 22% 19% 14% 25% 21% 16% 21% 20% 22% 20% 16% 19% 20% 31% 9% 21% 20% 10% 15% 18% 22%


In your view, do you feel the Liberals deserve a second mandate?



CP4

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Yes 31% 34% 28% 35% 28% 27% 29% 33% 34% 31% 28% 34% 32% 31% 39% 34% 35% 16% 18% 29% 83% 28% 22% 4% 14% 4% 2%

No 48% 50% 45% 37% 50% 48% 51% 46% 49% 45% 50% 48% 49% 47% 34% 46% 44% 64% 68% 42% 5% 47% 58% 85% 59% 87% 83%

I don’t know / I’m not sure 21% 16% 27% 28% 22% 25% 20% 21% 17% 24% 22% 19% 19% 22% 27% 20% 21% 20% 14% 29% 12% 25% 20% 11% 27% 9% 15%

Are the leaders' debates on television important or not in your decision to support one party or another?



CP5

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Yes, they are important 46% 46% 45% 57% 50% 45% 43% 41% 43% 53% 44% 42% 48% 45% 43% 50% 46% 47% 43% 42% 52% 58% 53% 43% 53% 59% 44%

No, they are not important 43% 46% 40% 22% 34% 44% 48% 49% 49% 29% 46% 49% 46% 42% 44% 44% 42% 39% 44% 43% 42% 32% 43% 50% 39% 41% 56%

I don't know / I prefer not to answer

12% 8% 15% 21% 15% 10% 9% 10% 9% 18% 10% 9% 6% 13% 13% 7% 12% 14% 13% 15% 6% 10% 4% 7% 8% 0% 0%


45

In your opinion, should Maxime Bernier, leader of the People's Party of Canada, participate in the leaders' debates or not?No:8 GENDER AGE (1) AGE (2) FRANCOPHONE REGION FEDERAL VOTING INTENTIONS


CP6

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Yes 52% 54% 50% 46% 57% 55% 49% 55% 49% 52% 52% 52% 50% 53% 49% 50% 54% 48% 55% 49% 52% 47% 50% 57% 61% 92% 84%

No 24% 31% 18% 17% 19% 21% 23% 24% 35% 18% 22% 30% 31% 22% 23% 31% 21% 25% 20% 24% 30% 31% 38% 25% 23% 4% 10%I don't know / I prefer not to answer

24% 15% 32% 37% 24% 24% 28% 21% 16% 29% 26% 18% 19% 25% 28% 19% 24% 27% 24% 27% 18% 22% 12% 18% 16% 3% 6%

When you think of the 4 years of the Trudeau government, is the government's track record rather positive, rather negative or neither positive nor negative?



CP7

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Rather positive 21% 23% 20% 28% 21% 18% 17% 24% 22% 24% 18% 23% 20% 22% 37% 20% 23% 14% 11% 22% 56% 15% 14% 3% 18% 9% 12%

Neither positive nor negative 28% 28% 27% 33% 30% 27% 27% 26% 25% 31% 27% 25% 38% 25% 19% 39% 27% 26% 13% 25% 37% 36% 36% 16% 26% 7% 19%

Rather negative 46% 46% 46% 29% 43% 47% 49% 47% 51% 38% 48% 49% 40% 47% 31% 37% 44% 56% 69% 47% 7% 48% 50% 80% 53% 83% 60%


5% 4% 7% 9% 5% 8% 7% 3% 3% 7% 8% 3% 3% 6% 13% 3% 5% 4% 7% 6% 1% 1% 0% 1% 4% 2% 9%

On October 21, is it possible or out of the question that you will vote for the Green Party of Canada?



CP8

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Possible 35% 34% 37% 47% 40% 38% 35% 31% 26% 43% 37% 28% 31% 36% 33% 33% 35% 33% 26% 48% 35% 40% 28% 21% 96% 37% 43%

Out of the question 48% 56% 42% 34% 45% 43% 46% 51% 63% 41% 45% 58% 53% 47% 44% 54% 48% 51% 51% 40% 54% 47% 60% 71% 4% 58% 48%


16% 11% 22% 19% 15% 19% 19% 18% 11% 16% 19% 14% 15% 17% 22% 13% 17% 16% 23% 12% 11% 13% 12% 8% 1% 5% 9%

In your view, is the Conservative Party of Canada ready to form the government?



CP9

Weighted Total 2102 1021 1081 228 339 332 390 367 446 567 723 812 437 1660 144 493 807 137 236 285 591 202 86 573 202 56 22


Yes 34% 41% 27% 34% 38% 33% 33% 29% 35% 36% 33% 32% 29% 35% 29% 29% 33% 43% 50% 28% 15% 14% 21% 85% 9% 50% 3%

No 45% 46% 44% 39% 42% 44% 42% 52% 47% 41% 43% 49% 46% 45% 46% 47% 49% 32% 32% 47% 76% 69% 58% 4% 76% 25% 85%I don't know / I prefer not to answer

22% 13% 30% 26% 21% 22% 25% 20% 18% 23% 24% 19% 26% 20% 26% 24% 19% 25% 19% 25% 9% 17% 21% 10% 15% 24% 12%


46

Which of the following political parties is best positioned to defend Québec's interests?



CP10

Weighted Total 493 240 253 50 76 79 85 90 112 126 165 202 380 113 0 493 0 0 0 0 141 29 86 92 46 15 3



20% 22% 19% 13% 22% 18% 12% 27% 25% 19% 15% 26% 16% 36% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 61% 17% 0% 4% 5% 0% 0%


2% 2% 2% 4% 2% 4% 3% 1% 1% 3% 4% 1% 3% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 28% 0% 1% 3% 0% 13%

...Yves-François Blanchet's Bloc Québécois

31% 35% 28% 18% 22% 34% 33% 35% 38% 20% 33% 37% 38% 9% 0% 31% 0% 0% 0% 0% 19% 19% 93% 17% 44% 5% 25%


11% 13% 9% 3% 11% 11% 10% 12% 14% 8% 10% 13% 11% 10% 0% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 1% 51% 1% 4% 5%


3% 3% 3% 10% 3% 1% 3% 3% 2% 6% 2% 2% 3% 3% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 4% 0% 0% 24% 4% 0%


5% 7% 2% 10% 7% 5% 4% 4% 1% 8% 5% 2% 4% 7% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 2% 2% 0% 8% 2% 64% 0%

None 9% 8% 10% 6% 11% 12% 14% 5% 7% 9% 13% 6% 9% 10% 0% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 5% 16% 0% 9% 6% 23% 23%


18% 10% 26% 36% 22% 15% 21% 14% 12% 27% 18% 13% 17% 24% 0% 18% 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 12% 6% 10% 15% 0% 34%

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Documents

FEDERAL POLITICSAugust 21, 2019 August 31, 2019 LPC 18,91% 39,47% 49% 46% 42% 40% 38% 39% 34%31% 27% 29% 33% CPC 39,62% 31,89% 27% 25% 30% 34% 38% 36% 33%37% 40% …