Upload
others
View
2
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Presented to:
By:
Date:
Federal AviationAdministration
Today EDMS…Tomorrow AEDT
Transition to the Next Generation
EPA 18th International Emission Inventory Conference
Ralph Iovinelli
Happy Tax Day 2009
2 2Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Started in mid-1980s• Airports are complex
systems of emission sources
• One stop shopping for an airport model to:– Quantify emissions,– Disperse emissions– Forecast emissions
• Spatial & Temporal Accuracy
• Transparent• 100s of airframe
& engine combinations• System Requirements
– Pentium 4 or 1.3GHz– 512 MB memory– 2GB Storage– CD-ROM drive– Mouse or pointing device– Microsoft 2000, XP, Vista
What is the Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System?
3 3Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Emission Inventories 1– All Aviation Sources
• Aircraft, Auxiliary Power Units, Ground Support Equipment
– All Non-Aviation Sources• Onroad Mobile Sources, Power Plants, Parking Facilities,
Storage Tanks, Training Fires
– Multiple Airports Simultaneously– Hourly Meteorological Data
• Dynamic corrections for fuel flow and vehicle performance• Airport Configurations
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System v5.1
4 4Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Emission Inventories 2– All Pollutants
• NOx, SOx, CO, PM2.5, PM10, HC, NMHC, VOC, TOG• CO2 (aircraft only)• Speciated Organic Gases, including known Toxics
– New! EPA/FAA SPECIATE profile 5565 for aircraft equipped with turbofan, turbojet, and turboprop engines
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System v5.1
5 5Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Data Sources• ICAO Databank and manufacturer’s reports• NONROAD• AP-42 and other relevant USEPA documents
• Models• PM First-Order Approximation (FOA)• PART5, MOBILE6.2• SAE Aerospace Information Reports
• User Input Requirements• Aircraft fleet ops, taxi/queue times, perf. params., etc…• Traffic levels, parking lot throughput• Stationary Source operations
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System v5.1
6 6Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Dispersion Analyses– User Input Airport Layout
• Gates, Taxiways, Queues, Runways, etc…– AERMOD– AERMET– AERMAP
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System v5.1
7 7Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Regional Noise Impacts from changes to Airports + Airspace
***ATO Tool***
NoiseIntegratedRoutingSystem
Global Emissions InventoriesSystem for AssessingAviationGlobalEmissions
Model for Assessing Global Exposure to Noise from Transport AirplanesU.S. Flight Plan InventoriesGlobal Noise Exposure
MAGENTA
Individual Airport Noise ContoursIntegratedNoiseModel
Individual Airport Emissions Inventories / ConcentrationsEmissionsDispersionModelingSystem
Environmental ConsequenceToolsLeveraging Our Current Legacy Systems
8 8Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• What is AEDT?• Why AEDT?• Compatibility w/ EPA Tools• Policy Implications• Building Confidence in the use of our Tools• AEDT Master Planning
Aviation Environmental Design Tool
9 9Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
What is AEDT?
10 10Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Aircraft DataAircraft Fleet Database
Study-Specific Database
Airports Database
Aircraft DataMovementsDatabase
Aircraft DataNon-aircraft Sources Database
GraphicalUser
Interfaceor
AdvancedInputFiles
GISCapability
Contours
Outputs
Fuel Burn & EmissionsInventories
Noise & Pollutants Grids
NoiseChange Analyses
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
CO HC NOx PM SOx
TotalNoise &
EmissionsResults
Database
CalculatePollutant
Concentrations
CalculateAdditional
Noise Metrics
Terrain Calculations
Weather Calculations
Fly Aircraft
Calculate Noise
Calculate EmissionsAll Pollutants
+ GHGs
SEL, Time Audible,Lmax, Time Above
AircraftPerformance+ Fuel Burn
Repeatfor allFlights
TimeZ
X
Y
AEDT Overview
11 11Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• New! 4-D modeling of aircraft– Critical for NextGen and JPDO activities
• New! Input multiple radar data formats• New! Input trajectories from NextGen Simulation
Models• ACES, SIMMOD, TAAMS, RAMS, TARGETS
• New! Validated with Flight Data Recorder data• New! Employs Boeing aircraft performance model• New! Confidence in AEDT results by conducting a
uncertainty assessment
• Public release of AEDT 2.0 planned in Dec 2011– The official aviation environmental compliance & policy tool for
the U.S.
AEDT – Value Added…
12 12Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Why AEDT?
13 13Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
200210220230240250260270280
Fuel (kg)
49805000502050405060508051005120514051605180
NOx (grams)
020406080
100120140160180200
CO (grams)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
HC (grams)
19%morefuel
2%moreNOx
82%moreHC
85%moreCO
B757 DepartureStandard Departure Noise Abatement
Informed Decision?
Noise abatement departure = quieter at monitors
14 14Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Increased Engine Pressure Ratio & Temperatures
- Reduced Fuel Burn / CO2- Reduced HC and CO- Increased NOx
Increased engine bypass ratio - Reduced Fuel Burn / CO2- Reduced Noise- Increased NOx
Improved aerodynamic efficiency and reduced weight
- Reduced CO2- Reduced Noise- Reduced NOx
Fuel Burn/CO2
Noi
se
Other Emissions
Continuous Descent Approach
- Reduced Noise- Reduced Fuel Burn/CO2
Nacelle Modifications- Reduced Noise- Increased Fuel Burn/CO2
The Challenge: Trade-offs in Potential Solutions
15 15Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Noise & emissions tradeoffs dominate when analyzing aviation environmental effects– Local, Regional, Global
• Stovepiped legacy tools– Different/conflicting datasets &
algorithms to analyze the same system
• It’s all about “making the informed decision.”
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
B737-100 B737-200 B737-300 B737-400 B737-500 B737-600 B737-700 B737-800 B737-900 Aircraft Model
LTO NOx (kg)
Certification LTO NOx for the Boeing 737 family
Aircraft Noise Certification Level by Service Entrance Year
Why AEDT?
16 16Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Critical Need:– Match simulation accuracy
with environmentalconsequence fidelity
Challenges w/ Accuracy & Fidelity
NonNon--CDACDA
CDACDA
Runway
SpiralDescent
NormalGlide slope
SteepDescent
Single procedure
High Density scenarios
17 17Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Compatibility with EPA Tools
18 18Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
AEDT and MOVES Requirements
YES!YES!Windows Operating System
YES!YES!40 GB Storage
YES!YES!1 GB RAM Memory
YES!YES!Dual Core Processors
YES!YES!SQL Relational Databases
MOVESAEDT
19 19Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Potential Linkages with MOVES
MOVES-onroad vehicle sources
MOVES-onroad vehicle sources-nonroad vehicle sources
MOVES-onroad vehicle sources-nonroad vehicle sources
-aircraft emissions
AEDT-cars, trucks,
buses, motorcycles emissions on airport
Phase 1
Phase 3
AEDT-Onroad + ground support
equipment and construction emissions on airport
Phase 2
AEDT- Onroad + ground support
equipment and construction emissions on airport
Phase 1&2
20 20Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Policy Implications
21 21Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
• Domestic Regulations– Noise Part 150, Part 161 compliance leads to more
fuel burn and emissions? – Clean Air Act compliance leads to more noise
exposure?• NEPA
– Which is more important to determine a preferred alternative -- noise or emissions?
• CAEP– Which makes more sense… Noise or Emissions
stringencies?
Policy Implications
22 22Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Building Confidence in the use of our Tools
23 23Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Assessment• Objectives
– Provide sensitivity analyses of output response to uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions.
– Identify gaps in functionality • Identify high-priority areas for further development
– Contribute to the development of external understanding of AEDT.– Establish procedures for future assessment efforts.
• Scope– Parametric sensitivity and uncertainty analyses– Comparisons to gold standard data– Expert reviews (CAEP, TRB, Design Review Group)– Capability demonstrations/sample problems
Building Confidence in our Tools
24 24Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Formal Parametric Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis – Sensitivity Analyses
• Analyses Types– Monte Carlo Simulations
• Random sample is drawn and run through module, resulting in an output• Cycle is performed hundreds to thousands of time, resulting in a set of outputs, which can be used to
estimate means, variances, etc– Distributional Sensitivity Analysis (DSA)
• For a single factor, distribution is altered (shift mean, increase standard deviation, change distribution type, etc) while all other factor distributions are held constant.
• Determine sensitivity of the output response to an individual factor– Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA)
• Determines how factors contribute to output uncertainty• Calculates an averaged global contribution to output variance for each factor (including interaction between
factors)– Local Sensitivity Analysis (LSA)
• Provides sensitivity of output response to inputs and assumptions to support decision-making• Goal is to understand the behavior of module outputs in the local region of some point of interest
Monte Carlo Simulation
MODEL
x1
x2
x3
y1
y2
+5%
+5%
-5%
-5%
-5%
Nominal Case
+5%x1
x2
x3
Output, y
Distributional Sensitivity Analysis
Building Confidence in our Tools
25 25Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
AEDT Master Planning
26 26Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
AEDT Development Team
27 27Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
2008
StakeholderAEDT2.0
Beta Testing
2007Interface
with ACES & SIMMOD
2010 2011 2012
DRG #2
AEDT2.0publicrelease
Design Review Group meetings 1-2 times per year, as needed
Interface with
TARGETS
DRG #3
AEDT2.0 Development Timeline
DRG #4
Interface with
NASPAC,TAAMS,RAAMS
2009
28 28Federal AviationAdministration
Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT) OverviewApril 15, 2009
Thank You!