February+2015+Strategy+Report-12032015-BVSC

1

MONTHLY STRATEGY REPORT

February 2015

12/3/2015

Research Department Bao Viet Securities JSC Hanoi Headquarter No 8 Le Thai To, Hoan Kiem Dist., Hanoi Tel: (84-4)-3928 8080 Fax: (84-4)-3928 9888

Email: [email protected] Website:www.bvsc.com.vn Ho Chi Minh City Branch 8/F, Bao Viet Tower, 233 Dong Khoi, Dist. 1. Tel: (84-8)-3914 6888 Fax: (84-8)-3914 7999

MACROECONOMY

The production sector was greatly affected in

February by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.

The PMI still stood above 50 but the number of new

export orders declined.

Retal sales grew strongly in February thanks to rising

purchasing demand prior to Tet holiday, but

investment attraction and trade value dropped

sharply against the previous month. Private

investment surged in the first two months.

An expected increase of 7.5% in electricity price

beginning March 16 will surely affect the prices of

other items both in production and consumption

sectors.

STOCK MARKET

Bank stocks dominated the market.

Foreign investors increased net buying value for a

third consecutive month.

Performance of listed companies improved.

Foreign trading will influence the Vietnam stock

market in March.

Information about the signing of TPP agreement will

impact on related stocks and industries.

2

MACROECONOMY

Inflation MoM and YoY Price movement of some commodity groups

Industrial production index Total retail sales and services revenue (MoM)

FDI Trade balance

Interbank interest rates OMO by week

Sources: Bloomberg, GSO, BVSC

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

3/1/2014 5/1/2014 7/1/2014 9/1/2014 11/1/2014 1/1/2015

%% CPI MoM (LHS) CPI YoY ( RHS)

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

2/1/2013 6/1/2013 10/1/2013 2/1/2014 6/1/2014 10/1/2014 2/1/2015

Catering and related servicesBeverages and cigarettesApparel and footwareHousing and construction materialsOther goods and services

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15

%

MoM YoY

-2.30

2.002.40

1.401.70

0.300.10

0.70

1.60

3.002.60

2.20

3.70

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


Mil. USDFDI registered FDI disbursed

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Mil.USDMil.USDExport Import Trade balance in the last 12 months

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

12/26/2014 1/9/2015 1/23/2015 2/6/2015 2/20/2015

%

Overnight 1 week 2 weeks

5,995

13,282

73,123

2,039

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

26/1-30/1 2/2-6/2 9/2-13/2 24/2-27/2

Bil VND

3

The production sector was greatly affected in February by the week-long Lunar New Year holiday. The PMI still

stood above 50 but the number of new export orders declined.

Retal sales grew strongly in February thanks to rising purchasing demand prior to Tet holiday, but investment

attraction and trade value dropped sharply against the previous month. Private investment surged in the first two

months.

An expected increase of 7.5% in electricity price beginning March 16 will surely affect the prices of other items both

in production and consumption sectors.

Aggregate supply

Industrial production index

Sources: Bloomberg, GSO, BVSC

PMI statistics by HSBC

Sources: Bloomberg, BVSC

The index of industrial production (IIP) rose by 7% YoY in February but dropped

by 19.2% MoM (because there was a long holiday for Lunar New Year in February).

This phenomenon is normal every year when the MoM IIP is clearly affected by the

New Year holiday (the IIP fell by 21.3% MoM in February 2013 and 10.3% in

February 2014). It means that the IIP decline last month is not worrying. In the first

two months this year, the index rose by 12% YoY, much higher than the 5.4%

increase in the same period of 2014.

PMI rose slightly to 51.7 in February. Vietnam’s Purchasing Managers Index

(PMI) released by HSBC was recorded at 51.7 in February, higher than 51.5 in

January, which was a positive result if considering February as a holiday month.

According to HSBC, the number of new orders for enterprises increased for a sixth

consecutive month. However, the number of export orders fell for a second straight

month, following five consecutive months of growing. Production output in the

month rose more strongly than in January.

Based on two key indicators of the production sector, it can be seen that the

aggregate supply in February was significantly affected by the long New Year

holiday. If excluding this seasonal factor, the growth momentum of aggregate supply

was still maintained. A notable point was a decrease in the number of new export

orders over the past two months, partly reflecting weak demand from overseas

markets for Vietnamese export commodities. Although higher domestic consumption

demand helped offset the decline in foreign demand and boost production output,

this sign should be monitored to assess the export prospects of Vietnam in the

coming quarters.

Aggregate demand

Retail sales (MoM)

Sources: GSO, BVSC

Domestic consumption. Total retail sales and services revenue in February rose by

3.7% against the previous month, higher than the 2.2% increase in January, marking

a record high by month since December 2011. The growth of retail sales in the past

four months was positive (averaged at 2.88%/month), attributed to higher

consumption demand at the year-end and local people’s increased spending due to

low commodity prices.

In addition, revenue from tourism, staying and restaurant services surged 2% in

February given the trend of travelling during the Tet holiday. This trend is expected

to continue and grow in the coming years, making greater contribution to total retail

sales and service revenue during the Tet month.

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20


%

MoM YoY

5151.3

53.1

52.552.3

51.7

50.3

51.7

51

52.1

52.7

51.551.7

48

49

50

51

52

53

54


-2.30

2.002.40

1.401.70

0.300.10

0.70

1.60

3.002.60

2.20

3.70

-3.00

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

%

4

FDI

Sources: GSO, BVSC

Trade balance


Private investment. Total outstanding loans as at February 24 grew 0.96% against

December 2014. This fugure is surprising as credit growth is often negative in the

first months of the year. In Jan-Feb 2014, total outstanding loans were estimated to

fall by 1.16% against end-December 2013.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) targets to obtain a credit growth of 13-15% in

2015 (which can be raised to 17% in favorable conditions), higher than 12-14% in

2014. The economic recovery will spur up companies’ borrowing demand to expand

production activities. In addition, interest rates are expected to remain low this year

(7-9% for short-term loans and 10-13% for mid- and long-term loans), being another

condition to support credit growth in the coming months.

Foreign direct investment. Vietnam attracted an estimated $529 million of foreign

direct investment in February, down 20% compared to the $663 million amount in

January. Meanwhile, FDI disbursement in the month was estimated to increase by

37.6% MoM to $695 million. In the first two months, registered FDI reached $1.19

billion, down 22.5% YoY while disbursed FDI hit $1.2 billion, up 7.1% YoY. The

manufacturing and processing industry still took the leading role, accounting for

80% of total registered FDI, followed by real estate business (9.3%) and other

industries 10.7%.

Although FDI disbursement figure is more significant to the economy, the decline in

registered FDI should be taken into account as it will likely affect the attraction of

new FDI in the future.

Trade surplus was estimated at $300 million in February. Vietnam’s export

turnovers were estimated at $9.6 billion in February, down 28% on-month (the

revised figure in Jan rose by $505 million against the estimated figure) but up 0.6%

on-year. Meanwhile, imports were estimated at $9.3 billion, a sharp decrease of

32.4% on-month and 7.8% on-year. The strong fall of import-export value in

February against January was caused by the long New Year holiday (making up

nearly one third of total working days).

In total, Vietnam recorded a trade surplus of $300 million in February, versus the

trade deficit of $361 million in January (revised from the estimated figure of $500

million). As a result, the country’s trade deficit was narrowed to $61 million in the

first two months of 2015. We expect that the trade balance would improve from

March when import demand decreases and exports rebound thanks to rising demand

from tranditional markets as the U.S., EU, Japan and South Korea.

In general, the constituents of aggregate demand in February 2015 reflect clearly the

impacts of the Lunar New Year holiday. Retail sales surged given soaring demand of

consumption for Tet, but investment attraction and import-export value fell sharply

compared to the previous month. On a positive note, private investment recorded

impressive growth, reflected in credit growth in the first two months of the year.

This is different from the recent years, suggesting higher growth in private

investment this year.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000


Mil. USDFDI registered FDI disbursed

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Mil.USDMil.USDExport Import Trade balance in the last 12 months

5

Macro highlight in March

Inflation


An expected increase of 7.5% in electricity price will affect CPI. The consumer

price index fell by 0.05% on-month in February despite the peak shopping season

during the New Year festival. This was the fourth consecutive month that Vietnam

recorded on-month decrease in CPI, making the end-Feb CPI to rise by 0.34% on-

year, a record low in the history.

While the decrease in petroleum prices contributed to CPI fall in the previous

months, this influence will likely no longer exist in March. If the world oil price

continues to stand around $50/barrel while the stabilization fund declines, the

ministries of Industry and Trade and Finance are likely to soon decide to increase

retail gasoline prices (estimated to be raised by VND2,500/liter soon if the

stabilization fund is unused). In addition, electricity price is expected to be increased

by 7.5% from March 16, raising concerns among enterprises. In our calculation, in

this case, the electricity group would result in a 0.25% increase in CPI in the coming

months. This impact may be reflected with 0.1% in CPI in March and clearer in

April. The production price index PPI will also increse in line with electricity prices,

differently reflected in industries and enterprises but significantly in electricity-

consuming sectors as steel, cement, etc.

Banking system restructuring will be continued. So far, restructuring of the banking

system has ended its first phase, and banks have no more time to be merged or

restructured. In the view of BVSC, after the goal of merging 6-7 weak banks in 2014

failed, the SBV is likely to speed up this process in the first half of this year.

Restructuring will be more intensive in the coming months, with focus on

termination of cross ownership and improvement of banks’ financial capacity. Even,

the SBV will also directly treat weak banks as the Vietnam Bank for Construction

(VNBC) in late 2014. The mergence of small banks into large banks is a trend

helping to strengthen liquidity in the entire banking system in a sustainable way and

facilitate the application of new standards in financial governance and accounting as

well as supporting banks to expand scale. In the upcoming AGM season, large banks

as VCB, CTG and BID are expected to release their plans on M&A deals with small

banks.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

3/1/2014 5/1/2014 7/1/2014 9/1/2014 11/1/2014 1/1/2015

%% CPI MoM (LHS) CPI YoY ( RHS)

6

STOCK MARKET The gains/losses of some markets P/E Ratio

Trading Proportion by Industry on HSX Trading Proportion by Industry on HNX

Average Daily Trading Value Foreign Trading on HSX in Feb (mil USD)

Foreign Trading Value against Overall Market Vn30 and Hnx30 Trading Proportion

Sources: Bloomberg, HNX, HSX, BVSC

22.0%

6.6% 6.4%5.5%

3.1% 3.0% 2.9%1.9%

0.4% 0.2%0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

ASE Index

DAX Index

NKY Index

SPX Index

SHCOMP Index

JCI Index VNINDEX Index

KOSPI Index

SET Index

VHINDEX Index

February 2 months

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

VNINDEX

VHINDEX

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

11/28/2014 12/31/2014 1/30/2015 2/27/2015

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

11/28/2014 12/31/2014 1/30/2015 2/27/2015

1,192,999

419,396

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

FebJanDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMar

Hsx Hnx

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

T2T1T12T11T10T9T8T7T6T5T4T3T2

Foreign buy Foreign sell Different

18.0%

16.0%

12.0%10.8%

16.0%

17.5%

16.1%

11.4%

19.5%

16.1%

9.6%8.5%

12.7%

10.8%

18.8%

14.0%

10.0% 10.0%

13.0%12.0%

10.5% 10.8%11.7%

20.2%

17.6%

11.6%10.3%

12.6%

10.6%

13.2%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

T12 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 T7 T8 T9 T10 T11 T12 T1 T2

Buy Sell

49%47%

49%

43%

40%

45%

48%46%

48%48%47%

42%

61%

73%70%70%

65%66%

71%

66%

73%74%71%

66%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

FebJanDecNovOctSepOctNovDecJanFebMar

% VN30 %VH30

7

Bank stocks dominated the market.

Foreign investors increased net buying value for a third consecutive month.

Performance of listed companies improved.

Foreign trading will influence the Vietnam stock market in March.

Information about the signing of TPP agreement will impact on related stocks and industries.

Bank stocks drived the market in February

Industries with big price fluctuations in Feb

Foreign net buying/selling value by industry on HSX in Feb

Industries’ revenue in 2014 vs 2013

The market recorded gains for a second straight month but liquidity tumbled.

Closing February 2015, the VnIndex and HnxIndex rose by 2.9% and 0.2%

respectively. Bank stocks contributed the most to the gain in February due to their

large capitalization and greater interest of investors, especially VCB, CTG, BID,

etc. Meanwhile, the drop in liquidity was caused by concerns about the impacts of

Circular 36 officially applied from February 01 and also the relaxing sentiment in

the Lunar New Year holiday month.

In general, there was little difference in the price fluctuations of stock groups in

February (according to ICB 2 industry classification on HSX). The insurance and

banking industries had the biggest gains (+5.79% and +5.46% respectively), mainly

driven by BVH, VCB, CTG and BID with strong foreign buying. Meanwhile, the

medical equipment and service industry suffered the biggest loss (-5.35%), mostly

due to heavy profit-taking in the industry’s leading stock JVC after its overheated

gains. The steel industry also underwent a negative trading month (down 3.7%),

mostly affected by information about electricity price increase and competition

pressure from imported steel amid difficulties facing the export sector given rising

exchange rate and tariff barriers from neighboring countries.

Foreign investors increased net buying value for a third straight month

Foreign investors boosted buying in February while selling value was low. Their

net buying value reached VND1,073 billion in the month, the biggest value since

June 2014. This foreign move contributed largely to the rally of the two indices

amid weak buying demand of domestic investors.

Foreigners bought strongly finance and real estate stocks while sold healthcare

stocks with a small value. CTG, VCB, BID and BVH were net purchased at a high

value, leading to their big gains in February, while KDC, CSM and HPG were

dumped.

Performance of listed companies improved

FY2014 operating results of listed companies on the two exchanges improved

much compared to 2013. Temporary statistics on FY2014 business results of 568

listed companies showed that 46 firms reported losses (versus 64 firms in 2013).

The combined revenue of the 568 companies rose by 12.05% yoy while the

combined profit was up 12.23% yoy. Their net profit margin was 8.08%, higher

than 8.06% in 2013. Total inventory value increased by 4%, showing the expansion

of the production sector given the enterprises’ increased confidence in the economic

recovery. In conclusion, the operating results of listed companies in 2014 recorded

5 best performers (ICB) % Change Key members

Nonlife Insurance 5.79% BVH, PVI, VNR, BMI, BIC…

Banks 5.46% VCB, CTG, BID, STB, EIB…

Software & Computer Services 5.44% ELC, CMG, SGT, CMT, SRB…

Household Goods & Home Construction 5.40% DQC, EVE, TTF, LIX, RAL…

Personal Goods 4.80% TCM, GMC, KMR, KHA, TNG…

5 worst performers (ICB) % Change Key members

Electricity -1.60% PPC, VSH, TMP, CHP, TBC…

Automobiles & Parts -1.72% DRC, CSM, SRC

Travel & Leisure -1.90% VNS, TCT, RIC, DSN, GTT…

Industrial Metals & Mining -3.70% HSG, POM, TLH, DTL, VIS…

Health Care Equipment & Services -5.35% JVC, DCL, DNM

(10 0,000,000)

-

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

2013 2014

8

Industries’ profit in 2014 vs 2013

Inventory in 2014 vs 2013

Net profit margin in 2014 vs 2013

significant growth compared to 2013, especially in the second half of the year. This

growth was attributed to the economic stability, low interest rates, decreased oil

prices (leading to lower corporate expense) and improved domestic consumption

demand.

Industrial, consumer services and oil-gas groups recorded impressive profit

growth of 123%, 29% and 15% yoy respectively. The profit growth of industrial

companies was contributed evenly by all companies in this group but especially by

leading stocks as HPG, GMD, CII, HT1, etc., and some firms that converted loss

into profit after one year such as BCC and PVX. This result was not only attributed

to the improvement in their core business results but also to objective factors as oil

price decrease (leading to lower operating expenses) or the reversal of exchange

rate provision (in cases of HT1, BCC). Meanwhile, the profit growth of consumer

service companies, typically VNS, PNJ, was due to improved consumption demand

and the economic recovery. For oil-gas companies, including GAS, PVS, PLC,

their FY2014 profit remained solid due to little influence from the world oil price

decrease.

On the contrary, basic materials and real estate groups suffered the biggest profit

decline of 31.2% and 29.9% respectively. Unfavorable input and output price

movements led to the profit plunge of basic material firms, easily seen at natural

rubber and fertilizer companies as DPR, PHR, DPM. Meanwhile, the profit of the

real estate industry tumbled due to no huge financial income of VIC recorded as in

2013. However, the majority of the other realty companies showed high growth in

revenue and profit as well as high clearance of inventories given the warming of the

real estate market.

Factors to affect stock market in March

Foreign trading and VNINDEX movements in the past

Foreign trading will influence the Vietnam stock market in March. Domestic

investors are pinning high expectations that foreign investors would steadily

purchase leading blue chips with high value, particularly financial stocks. Strong

buying demand from foreign investors was the main contributor to the market rally

in February when domestic traders reduced trading on concerns about the negative

impacts of Circular 36. In the past, a plenty of upside wave was created and

contributed by foreign money flows. Most recently, there were two phases with

strong net foreign buying, from September 2013 to February 2014 and from April

to June 2014, leading to the bull run of the VnIndex lasting from end-2013 to April

2014 and from May to September 2014. Given that the Japanese and EU economies

are still facing many difficulties and the two central banks (ECB and BoJ) will

likely continue to maintain loosened monetary policies this year, while the FED is

unlikely to raise base interest rates in the first two quarters of 2015 under the

forecast of world economic organizations, BVSC expects that money will continue

flowing into emerging markets to get higher profits, thereby giving benefits to the

Vietnam stock market in March.

The portfolio review of two ETFs will influence the movements of related blue

chips. According to BVSC’s Q1 2015 ETFs bulletin, VNM exchange-traded fund is

likely to remove DRC from its basket due to failing to meet criteria in liquidity and

capitalization. No new stocks are eligible to be added. Some stocks as VIC, VCB,

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2013 2014

05

1015202530354045

2013 2014

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2013 2014

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

1/2

/20

13

1/2

4/2

01

3

2/2

2/2

01

33

/18

/20

13

4/9

/20

13

5/7

/20

13

5/2

9/2

01

36

/20

/20

13

7/1

2/2

01

38

/5/2

01

38

/27

/20

13

9/1

9/2

01

31

0/1

1/2

01

3

11

/4/2

01

31

1/2

6/2

01

31

2/1

8/2

01

3

1/1

0/2

01

42

/12

/20

14

3/6

/20

14

3/2

8/2

01

44

/22

/20

14

5/1

9/2

01

4

6/1

0/2

01

47

/2/2

01

47

/24

/20

14

8/1

5/2

01

49

/10

/20

14

10

/2/2

01

4

10

/24

/20

14

11

/17

/20

14

12

/9/2

01

41

2/3

1/2

01

41

/26

/20

15

2/2

5/2

01

5

Foreign net buy VNINDEX

9

MSN and STB are likely to be sold because their weight exceeds the ceiling. For

DB x-trackers FTSE Vietnam UCITS ETF, several stocks namely OGC, HSG and

CSM are expected to be removed out of its basket due to failing to meet criteria in

liquidity and capitalization. MSN and VIC may be sold heavily due to exceeding

the ceiling weight. In general, such periodic trading of the two ETFs will not have

large impact on the overall market as their moves are always within the expectation

of investors. According to our observations in the previous reviews, the stocks that

were eliminated from the ETFs’ baskets offered opportunities for short-term buying

in the second and third week of the end-quarter month.

In addition, information relating to Q1 2015 corporate earnings and the

upcoming AGM season will result in a segmentation in the market. In particular,

stocks related to M&A, issuance and capital raising plans or loss clearance will

attract the great attention of investors. Firms that could clear accumulated losses

will likely benefit rising cash flows after being removed from the black list of

margin loan restriction.

Investment viewpoint

Information concerning to the TPP agreement signing will impact on related

stocks and industries. The Trans-Pacific Partnership Free-Trade Agreement (TPP)

negotiations are expected to be completed in 2015. If the agreement is officially

signed, it will bring great benefits to many industries and boost revenue and profit

growth, especially for export-related industries such as textiles, agro-forestry-

aquaculture, etc. When completed, TPP will help connect the free trade area with

800 million people, accounting for 30% of global trade and nearly 40% of the

world output. However, in the view of BVSC, the stock prices of these industries

have risen sharply in the recent period; although they remain attractive in the long

term but tipped to have moderate growth in 2015. Instead, investors can consider

companies that indirectly benefit from the free trade agreements such as auxiliary

industries, transport, seaport, etc., whose growth prospects are not yet reflected

much on stock prices.

10

.

DISCLAIMER

This Report of BVSC is to provide monthly general information and analysis on the Vietnam Stock Market. The report is not done by

requirement of any institution or individual. Investors should use the information, analysis, and commentary in the report as a reference

source before making investment decisions. The report is for informational purposes and is not intended to advise readers to buy or sell any

securities.

The information contained in this report has been verified carefully; however, BVSC takes no responsibility with regard to the accuracy or

completeness of any information contained herein. Viewpoints and analyses in the report can be changed without notification.

This report is the property of BVSC and under copyright protection. Any copy, change, and/or reprint of the report without the permission of BVS

is illegal. BVSC owns the copyright on the report.

RESEARCH & INVESTMENT ADVISORY DEPARTMENT

Bao Viet Securities Joint Stock Company

Head office: 8 Le Thai To. Hoan Kiem Dist., Hanoi Branch: F8 Bao Viet Tower, 233 Dong Khoi, Dist. 1, HCM City

Tel: (844) 3928 8080 Fax: (844) 3928 9888 Tel: (848) 39146888 Fax: (848) 39147999

Economist:

Yen Tran [email protected]

Supervisor:

Nam Nguyen, Ph.D. [email protected]

Binh Nguyen MA [email protected]

Market Strategist:

Lưu Anh Tran [email protected]

11

Documents

February+2015+Strategy+Report-12032015-BVSC