FEBRUARY 2020 · February 2020 : Impact Assessment of the Wheat and Olive FSL Programming in Northwest Syria 3 ACRONYM DFID Department for International Development DTI Debt to Income

FEBRUARY 2020

Impact Assessment of the Wheat and Olive FSL Programming in Northwest Syria

February 2020 : Impact Assessment of the Wheat and Olive FSL Programming in Northwest Syria2

CONTENTSEXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

BACKGROUND 5

A. WHEAT VALUE CHAIN IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY 8

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 8

METHODOLOGY 9

RESULTS 11

B. OLIVE VALUE CHAIN IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY 15

HOUSEHOLD SURVEY 15

METHODOLOGY 16

RESULTS 17

CASE STUDY ON PRODUCTIVITY AND PROFITABILITY OF THE SUPPORTED OLIVEFARMINGSEASON2018-2019 18

C. IMPACT ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 22

DISCUSSIONS 22

WHEAT VALUE CHAIN 23

OLIVE VALUE CHAIN 23

WOMEN ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT THROUGH OLIVE AND WHEAT VALUE CHAIN INFORMED FSL PROGRAMMING 24

RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS 25

PROGRAMMING RECOMMENDATIONS 25

LESSONS LEARNED 26

ANNEX 1: IMPACT ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS INDICATORS 27

3February 2020 : Impact Assessment of the Wheat and Olive FSL Programming in Northwest Syria

ACRONYMDFID Department for International Development

DTI Debt to Income Ratio

FCS Food Consumption Score

FSL Food Security and Livelihoods

LVC Livelihoods and Value Chain

MTE Mid-Term Evaluation

NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

NES North East Syria

NWS North West Syria

PDM Post Distribution Monitoring

rCSI Reduced Copying Strategy Index

SRP Syria Resilience Program

SS South Syria

SYP Syrian Pound

VC Value Chain

WoS Whole of Syria


EXECUTIVE SUMMARYCARE Syria has been implementing the DFID - funded Syria Resilience Programme (SRP) since 2017. The SRP aims that familiesaffectedbyconflicthaveagreaterlevelofresilience,mitigateprotectionrisksandnegativecopingmechanismsand participate in economic livelihood activities. CARE SRP utilized a comprehensive agricultural value chain approach toassess,create,monitorsuchlivelihoodopportunities.Severalagriculturalvaluechainshavebeenassessed,basedontheidentifiedbottlenecksandopportunities,FoodSecurityandLivelihood’s(FSL)interventionsweredesignedtotargetamongstotherswheatandolivefarmersacrossnorthwestofSyria.MostactivitieswereimplementedwithlocalpartnerswithstrongexperienceandaccessinNorthwestSyria,includingShafaq,IYD,WatanandViolet.

Inthewheatvaluechain,SRPtargetedandsupportedwheatfarmerswiththeprovisionofwheatinputs,whichincludedseeds, herbicides, pesticides and fertilizers. In addition, CARE SRP supported the farmers by providing agriculturaltraining, crop harvesting support (using value vouchers). Cash-for-work projects were used to provide firefightingandfirepreventionservicesaswellaspest-controlduringthevegetativephaseof thewheatcropproductioncycle.Atcommunityandmarketsystemslevel,SRPincludedinvestmentsinproductiveinfrastructuretoimproveirrigation,storage,processingandmarketingofwheat.

Interventions in the olive value chain included: 1) Training olive farmers on the best production/agronomic and harvestingpractices;2)Conductingtworoundsofchemicalsprayingwithpesticidesafterathoroughtechnicalneedsassessment; 3) Pruning olive trees and advanced training to existing labourers on pruning as a best agronomic practices; 4)Hiringlabourersthroughcashforworktohelpinolivefruitharvesting;5)ProvisionoftechnicalsupporttoselectedolivemillsaroundtheproductionareaswhowerealsosupportedbyCARESRPbeneficiariesinolivefruitpressingandprocessing;6)Supportoilmarketfunctionalitythroughpurchasingtheoilwhichwasdistributedtovulnerablewomenheaded households.

iMMAP was contracted by CARE to conduct the agricultural value chain assessments, and the impact evaluationassessmentsonhouseholdfoodsecurityandlivelihoodstatusasinfluencedbythevaluechaininformedapproachinFSLprogramming.CARE’srollingbaselinebeneficiaryregistrationdataandfollow-upsurveydataofthewheatandolivevaluechainswereusedfortheimpactanalysispurpose.Tofillinformationgapsandtoovercomedataqualityissues,iMMAPconductedphone-basedinterviewswithwheatandolivefarmers,inaddition,iMMAPconductedremotesensing-basedwheatcropfieldvegetation/plantcoveranalysis,tovalidatetheresultsofthehouseholddata.

Analysingthedifferentpatchesofthewheatandolivevaluechaindatarevealedthatthesurveyedbeneficiariesshowedgainsinmanyoftheassessedindicators,includingimprovedhouseholdincome,lesshouseholddebtservicing,higherwheatcropproductivityandreducedadoptionofnegativeandunsustainablecopingstrategies.Theimpactassessmentshowed that beneficiaries gained an improved economic capacity from a sustainable agricultural income source.This decreased the need of the households to adopt unsustainable livelihood based coping strategies to meet their basic needs. Such improvements are indicators of strengthened household resilience and economic potential. The improvementswerelikelycausedbythehigherhouseholdincomewhichwasgainedfromtheincreasedwheat,oliveandoilproduction.Clearly, thecurrentCARESRPsupport that thewheat farmersreceivedwasthemaincontributortosuchgains,whichtriggersthequestionofsustainingsuchimprovementaftertheendofthecurrentsupport.TheanswertothiscallshallbepartofthebeneficiarygraduationplanofthisprojectthatiMMAPrecommendsbepartoftheprogramme’sexitstrategy.TheobservedgainsalignwithotherCARESRPmonitoringresultsasearlierreportedthroughPost Distribution Monitoring and the Mid-Term Evaluation.


Basedonthestudyresults,iMMAPrecommendsadoptingtheimpactassessmentapproachesasstandardmonitoringprocedurefortheFSLactivities,includingapropergraduationofbeneficiariesintheprogramme’sexitstrategytoensurethesustainabilityoftherecordedgains.Inaddition,itisrecommendedtotargetmorefemaleswithmarket-basedservicepackages,specificallyinthewheatvaluechain.Itisfinallyrecommendedtosupportthebroadermarketsystem-basedapproach for food security and livelihood restoration programming by targeting the different segments along the value chain.

BACKGROUNDTheDFID-fundedSyriaResilienceProgramme(SRP)whichhasbeenunderimplementationbyCAREsince2017,aimsthatfamiliesaffectedbyconflicthaveagreaterlevelofresilience,mitigateprotectionrisksandnegativecopingmechanismsand participate in economic livelihood activities. The implementation process has been based on using a Whole of Syria(WoS)approachinsideSyriafromfourhubs,mostlyincollaborationwithimplementingpartners.Thelivelihoodscomponent is the largestof theSRPwhich isdesignedtosupportwomenandmentoaccessproductiveassetsandlivelihoods support services to strengthen or restart their livelihoods through a value chain approach.

Atthestartoftheprogram,theCARESRPteamhasdesignedaLivelihoodandValueChainStrategy(LVC)consistedofeight systematic steps for implementing the SRP value chain actions:

Figure 1: Major Strategic Steps to Value Chain Process and designing Common VC Tools for SRP

Step 1

Step 2

Step 3

Step 4

Step 5

Step 6

Step 7

Step 8

Building capacity of CARE's partners and team on Value chain approach and concepts

Develop and apply VC selection Criteria tools

Develop and apply VC assessment tools of selected VCs

Identify key constraints and market opportunities

Design interventions and activities needed to address constraints to end market opportunities

Prioritization the designed intervention and activities

Implementation of the designed intervention and activities

Monitoring and Evaluation of implemented activities

Mon

itor

ing

and

Eva

luat

ion


TheValueChainAssessmentswereconductedbyiMMAPaspartofthepartnershipthatwassignedwithCAREattheendof2017.Throughtheaboveprocess,thefollowingvaluechainswereselected:

● SouthSyria:FoodProcessingandLivestockvaluechains;

● NorthWestSyria:Wheat,OliveandLivestockvaluechains;

● NorthEastSyria:WheatandLivestockvaluechains;and

● CentralSyria:FoodProcessingandLivestockvaluechains.

Duringthelastthreeyears,SRPslivelihoodactivitieswereimplementedusingtheVCapproachacrossthefourhubsfortheabove-mentionedVCs.Thisstrategicapproachfocusedonsupportingthefunctioningoflocalmarketsandhelpingcommunities to adapt from a formerly government dominated subsidies in the form of agricultural support and broader economicsystem,tooneinwhichprivatesectorentities,includingsmalltomedium-sizedenterprises,playabiggerrole.DesignofinterventiontookintoaccountthemostlikelyconflictscenariosforeachlocationandfollowedaDoNoHarmapproach.Gender-differentiatedneedsofwomenandmenwereconsideredwheretheprojectsupportedtheinclusionofwomen,youths(femalesandmales)andempowerthemtosupportthedevelopmentofgreatersocialandeconomicresilience in their communities, orwithin thehost communities inwhich they currently live if theyare IDPs.WherepossibletheSRPbuiltpartnershipsandsynergieswithotherwithkeyplayersandstakeholdersrespondingtotheSyriancrisessuchasiMMAP,MercyCorps,IRC,FAO,andtheSyriaResilienceConsortium.

Basedonthebottlenecksandopportunitiesidentifiedinthevaluechainassessments,theVCimplementationprocessfocused on the interlinkages between the different segments (players) along the value chain. In the olive valuechain,activitieswereimplementedtolinkthedifferentplayersstartingwithinputsupplierstooliveproducerstooilmillers (processors) andfinally to consumers. The interventions variedat each segment (level) basedon theneedsandopportunitiesforimprovingthelivelihoodofthetargetedbeneficiaries.Attheproductionlevel,farmersreceivedplantprotectionservicessuchassprayingwithchemicalsandpruning.Farmersalsoreceivedagronomicaltrainingonbestproductionandharvestingpractices.Attheprocessinglevel,theoliveoilmillsreceivedstainless-steeltanksandtechnicaladvicetoproperlystorethemilledoil.Attheconsumerlevel,inanefforttosupportthemarketfunctionality-vulnerableconsumersreceivedvoucherstopurchasetheproducedoliveoilfromproducersandmillers.ManywomenwereinvolvedintheolivevaluechaininNorthwestSyria.Cashforworkactivitieswereimplementedwithintheolivevaluechaintotrainandemploywomenonoliveharvestingandprocessing.

Inthewheatvaluechain,SRPprovideddirectsupporttowheatfarmerstoimproveproductionwhilealsostrengtheningtheir enabling environment at community and market level. The interventions included investments in productiveinfrastructuretoimproveproduction,storage,processingandmarketingofwheat.Atproductionlevel,vulnerablewheatfarmersreceivedhighqualityseeds,fertilizers,herbicidesandpesticides.Inaddition,SRPsupportedthefarmersthroughtechnical training andharvesting using a vouchermodality. At community level, cash forworkwasused toprovidefirepreventionandfirefightingservices inthedryseasonbeforeharvesting.Basedonanassessmentthat identifiedobstaclesinthevaluechain,infrastructurerehabilitationprojectswereimplementedtoimproveirrigation,grainstorageconditionsandagriculturalmarketaccess.Atmarketlevel,theactivitiesunderSRPwerelinkedtoanotherFSLprogramfundedbyFoodForPeace(FFP)topromotetheutilizationandmarketingofwheatproducedbyfarmerssupportedbySRP.Purchasedwheatwasprocessedintoflouranddistributedtobakeriestoproducemorethan1millionbagsofbreadand made available to vulnerable households at a decreased price.


CAREstruggledtoinvolvelargenumbersofwomeninthewheatvaluechain,asthesectorisdominatedbymen.Althoughthe livestockvaluechain inNorthwestSyriawasnotassessed in this study,manyactivitieswere implemented thatfocusedontheinterlinkagesbetweenthedifferentsegmentswithinthevaluechain.Forinstance,CAREanditspartnersfocusedonlinkingthemilkproducers(herdowners)withthemilkcollectorswhowerealsolinkedtodairyproductsretailers.Theestablishedlinkagesalongthechainwereintendedtoincreasethevalueaddedateachsegmentandtoimprovethequalityofthedairyproductsateachstagesothefinalbeneficiary(consumers)wouldreceiveahigh-qualitydairyproductatareasonableprice.Inadditiontotheimprovementinthequalityofthedairyproducts,theVCintegratedprocess has resulted in decreasing the losses at the different stages through proper handling and provision of the Hazard AnalysisandCriticalControlPoints(HACCP)trainingtowomenandmendealingwithdairyproduction.Dozensofwomengroupswereestablishedandawardedbusinessgrantstopurchasedairyprocessingequipmentandmaterialstoprocessmilkattheirhomes.Thesewomengroupsalsosigneddealswithretailerstomarkettheirproducts.

ToassesstheimpactonthehouseholdswhohavebeenbenefitingfromtheFoodSecurityandLivelihood(FSL)programmeimplementedthroughthewheat,oliveandlivestockvaluechainsapproachinNorthWestSyria(NWS),NorthEastSyria(NES)andSouthSyria(SS)byCARE,iMMAPwastaskedtodoanevaluation(quantitativeandqualitativeassessment)studytoassessthepotentialimpactoftheLVCapproachonthelivelihoodofthebenefitinghouseholds.iMMAPusedanintegratedapproachtoassessthepotentialimpactoftheinterventionsonthetargetedbeneficiaries.Retrospectiveanalysisforabaseline–follow-uphouseholdsurveyswereusedtoassessthechangesintheeconomic,foodsecurityandvulnerabilityprofileofthebenefitinghouseholds,comparedtoagroupofnon-beneficiaries,overtheimplementationperiod.Moreover, to triangulate thechanges in thetargetedfieldcropproductivity, remotesensing techniqueswereusedtomonitortheplantcoverofsometargetedwheatcropfieldsandcomparedtonon-benefitingwheatcropfields.Inaddition,withafocusonwomenempowerment,casestudieswereconductedwithfemalebeneficiariestoassesstheeconomicproductivityandprofitabilityofthelivelihoodactivitiessuchbeneficiariesareundertaking.Conductingsuchstudiestookplaceoverthesecondhalfoftheyear2019toassesstheimpactoftheagriculturalvaluechaininformedFSLinterventionsonthe2018-2019oliveandwheatfarmingseason.

Inthefollowingsectionsofthereport,eachevaluationapproachwasfullydiscussedforthewheatandolivevaluechainsas it informed the FSL implementation cycle of the Syria Resilience Programme.


A. WHEAT VALUE CHAIN IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY

HOUSEHOLD SURVEYBACKGROUND

ThepurposeofthestudywastoassesstheimpactofthewheatvaluechainapproachthatunderpinnedthefoodsecurityandlivelihoodsactivitiesCARE’sSyrianResilienceProgrammeinNorthwestSyria.Inthatregard,ananalysiswasdonetoevaluatehowthevaluechain informedFSLprogramming impacted the foodsecurityand livelihoodstatusof thesupportedfarmers.Forimpactevaluation,retrospectiveanalysisforabaseline-follow-uphouseholdsurveyswereusedtomeasurethechangesintheeconomic,foodsecurityandvulnerabilityprofileofthebenefitinghouseholds,comparedtoagroupofnon-beneficiaries,overtheimplementationtime.SuchovertimeandbetweenfarmergroupcomparisonwasusedtotestthepotentialcontributionofthewheatvaluechaininformedFSLinterventionstotheobservedchangesamongthesetofbeneficiaries.Thebeneficiarygroupsselectionwasbasedonacompiledsetofstandardvulnerabilityandeligibilitycriteriathattargetedthevulnerablepopulationwhometthecriteria,sothetargetedbeneficiarieshadahighereconomicvulnerabilitythanthenon-beneficiaries.SRPtargetedandsupported5,750wheatfarmersfromIdlebandAleppowiththeprovisionofwheatinputs,whichincludedseeds,herbicides,pesticidesandfertilizers.Inaddition,CARE SRP supported the farmers by providing agricultural training and crop harvesting support (using value vouchers). Cash-for-workprojectswereusedtoprovidefirefightingandfirepreventionservicesaswellaspest-controlduringthevegetativephaseofthewheatcropproductioncycle.AtcommunityandmarketsystemslevelSRPincludedinvestmentsinproductiveinfrastructuretoimproveirrigation,storage,processingandmarketingofwheat.


METHODOLOGYSTUDY DESIGN AND DATA MANAGEMENT

TheNWSFSLprojectrollingbaselinehouseholdregistrationdataandthesubsequentfollow-updatasetweremergedtobuild amatched comparativepanel dataset. Themergedpanel dataset includeddata for beneficiaries andnon-beneficiariesatthetwotime-points(baselineandfollow-up).ThisdesignaimedtoenablecapturingthecounterfactualdifferencesthroughcomparisonbetweenthefarminggroupsovertimeasameanforthepotentialFSLprogrammeimpactevaluation.

Thematchedpaneldatasethasdataonatotalof2,628wheatfarminghouseholds,with1,314householdsfromeachtimeof the twopoints. The rollingbaselinedatacame from the farminghousehold’s registrationsurvey,whichwasconductedduringSeptember2018,thefollow-updatawascollectedduringJuly2019afterthewheatharvestingseason.Tobuildthematcheddataset,extensivedatacleaningandmanagementprocessesweredonetodealwithseveraldataqualityissuesandtoselectthesuitablevariablesfortheanalysis.Thedataissuesincludedunexplainedduplicatecases,unexplainedoutliers, significantmissingvalues,wrongly collected indicators.Due to the inabilityofdatavalidation,droppingproblematic caseswas theadoptedapproachasagreedbetween iMMAPandCARE.The resultantmatchedpaneldatasetwasusedfortheanalysistogetthestudyresults.

STUDY INDICATORS

Therollingbaselineregistrationdatacontainedindicatorsonthefoodsecurity,economicvulnerabilityandwheatcropproductivityaspectsofthefarminghouseholds.Amongtheindicators;householdfoodconsumptionscores,livelihoodbasedcopingstrategies,householdincome,householdfoodexpenditure,householddebtvalueandwheatcropfarmingproductivityinyieldperunitoflandwereusedfortheanalysistohighlighttheimpactofthewheatvaluechaininformedprogramming for food security and livelihood restoration.

DATA ANALYSIS

Descriptiveandinferentialstatisticalanalysisweredoneontherelevantindicators.STATAV.15softwarewasusedforthispurpose.Thesignificantresultsarepresentedintheresultssection.

LIMITATIONS ● Duetoresourcesandtimelimitations,CARENWteamwasnotabletodedicatetherequiredresourcestocollect

prospectivehouseholddataspecificallyforthisexercise.Asanalternative,CARENWteamadvisediMMAPtousetheregistrationdataasabaselineandthatwastobefollowedupbyanothersurveyattheendofthecropharvestseason.Suchapproachwasbelievedtobeefficient,howeveritsignificantlylimitedthepotentialofthestudyas;onlyfiveoutoftheexpectedtwelvehouseholdvulnerabilityandfoodsecurityindicatorshaddatacollectedaspartofthewheatvaluechainrollingbaselinehouseholdregistrationphaseandfollow-upsurveys,limitingtheanalysis possibilities and output of the present report.

● Therewas inconsistencyacrossthe indicatorsonwhichdatawascollectedbyCARE’spartners insideSyria, forinstancedataonhouseholdFoodConsumptionScore(FCS)wasnotcollectedforthewheatvaluechainhouseholdrollingbaselineregistrationdata,whereas,thesamevariablehaditsdatacollectedinthecaseofolivevaluechainhousehold rolling baseline registration data.

● Poor data quality aspectswere present across several FSL indicators that limited the analysis of them, someexamplesareasfollows:


● In some instances, the household income data was underreported and the household expenditure data wasoverreported.Theend-linewheatfarminghouseholddatasethad178casesofthebeneficiarieswhoreportedtohaveanaverageexpendituretoincomeratioof13.8,whichmeansthattheirfoodexpenditureisalmost14timestheir total income. This cannot be accurate

● Thehectareproductivityinmetrictonswasreportedmorethan5hectaresby143cases,withamaximumof3700tonsofwheatproducedperone-hectarearea,whichcannotbeaccurate.

● Thehectareproductivityforthelastseasonwasmissingin880cases

● Thevariableonincomesourceshad1,548missingvalues

● Thewheatdatasethadmorethan70duplicatecases,wheretheduplicatecasedatawasdifferentthantheprimary.

● Thereducedcopyingstrategyindex–rCSIisoneofthecriticalindicatorsforthestudyaspertheanalysisplan,however,theindicatorwasincorrectlycollectedandwronglydesignedinthetoolonbothbaselineandend-lines,whichresultedinbeingunusableintheanalysis.

● Femalebeneficiarieswerenotrepresentedamongthesurveyedsampleofthewheatvaluechainwhichlimitedtheanalysis capacity of the gender aspects of the study.

● Significantcasedroppingwhichwasadoptedtodealwiththepoorqualityofdata,isexpectedtobiastheresults.

MITIGATION MEASURES ● AsthedatawassharedtoiMMAPbyCARE,iMMAPmaintainedactivetransparentcommunicationchannelswith

CARENWwhereallthedataissuesofconcernwerepresented,alongwithrecommendationstodealwithit.

● Duetoallthedataissuesthatwerereportedabove,significantcasedroppingwasadoptedtohaveaportionofthedatawithaminimalqualityfortheanalysis.

● Totriangulatetheresultsofthehouseholdsurveydataanalysis,iMMAPcomplementedtheanalysisusingremotesensing-basedvegetationindex–NDVIanalysistoassessthevegetation/plantstatusofthetargetedwheatcropfields.

● Tocomplementthequantitativepartofthestudy,iMMAPconductedphone-basedqualitativedatacollectionforcasestudieswiththewheatvaluechainbeneficiaries.


RESULTS FOOD SECURITY INDICATORS

Comparingthefollow-updatatotherollingbaselinehouseholddatarevealedanimprovementonfoodsecurityandlivelihoodsamongthebeneficiariesaswellasthenon-beneficiaries.TheCARESRPbeneficiariesgroupshowedhighermagnitudeofimprovementdespitetheirworse-offsituationatthebaselinestatus,whichindicatedapositiveimpactofthewheatvaluechaininformedFSLinterventiononthebeneficiary’sagriculturaleconomiccapacityandimprovedfoodsecurity status. Over the study time, the CARE SRP beneficiaries targeted for wheat production support, experienced a positive gain in the monthly household income by 36% (from USD 55 to USD 75) while the non-beneficiaries had a higher income by 21% (from USD 71 to USD 86), as Figure 1 illustrates. The data also indicates that CARE SRP targeted themorevulnerablehouseholds,andsuccessfullysupportedthesehouseholdstoclosetheincome-gapwithrelativelybetter-offhouseholds.Inaddition,asindicatedinFigure2,thehouseholddebt-to-incomeratio(DTI)increasedamongtheCARESRPbeneficiariesby20%whilealmostdoubledamongthenon-beneficiaries.HigherDTI indicatesahighervalueofhouseholddebtandthehighershareofhouseholdincomewhichcanbededicatedtopayinghouseholddebts,theDTIdifferencebetweenthefarminggroupswasfoundtobestatisticallysignificant,thisfindingshowedthegrowingagriculturaleconomicactivityandfinancialstabilityamongtheCARESRPbeneficiaries.

BL

FU

BL

FUNon-Beneficiaries

Beneficiaries55

75

71

86

BL

FU

BL

FUNon-Beneficiaries

Beneficiaries2.9

3.5

2

3.9

Note: BL = baseline data, FU = follow up data Note: DTI as % of the household total income

Figure 2: Household income in USD Figure 3: Debt payment ratio - DTI


LIVELIHOOD BASED COPING STRATEGIES

Analyzing the livelihood-based coping strategies adoption revealed supportive findings to the above-mentionedresults, comparing the follow-up to thebaselinedataamong the two farminggroupsshowed that, among thenon-beneficiaries,theprevalenceofhouseholdsthatdidnotadoptanynegativeorunsustainablelivelihood-basedcopingstrategydecreasedfrom19%atthebaselineto9%atthefollow-upstage.Nevertheless,among the wheat value chain beneficiaries of CARE SRP, the prevalence of households that did not adopt any negative or unsustainable livelihood based coping strategies increased from 6% at the baseline to 22% at the follow-up study time,whichcouldindicatethegrowingrelianceonsustainableagriculturalincomesourceratherthannegativeorunsustainablelivelihoodbasedcopingstrategiestomeetthehouseholdbasicneeds.ThisreflectsthemeritsofvaluechaininformedFSLprogramminganditspositiveimpactonthehouseholdfoodsecurity,livelihoodstatusandtheresilienceofthebeneficiaryhouseholds.Figure4belowshowsmoredetails:

Figure 4: Livelihood Coping Strategies Adoption Prevalence

58%19%

69%7%

20%

8%

16%61%

80%

56%

9%

6%

22%85%

80%

74%

Baseline

Follow-up

Non-Beneficiary Beneficiary

Baseline

Follow-up

Crisis Coping Emergency CopingNo Coping Stress Coping


Figure 6: Wheat grain type average production among the beneficiaries in percentage

Figure 7: Wheat grain type average production among the beneficiaries in metric ton

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY

In terms of wheat grain type that was grown last season,asFigure5shows,amongtheCARESRPbeneficiaries,hardgraincroppingincreasedfrom50%to73%atthefollow-up.Probablythisisreflectingincreasingrainfedfarmingamongthe beneficiary or the adoption of drought tolerant cropvarieties given the prevailing challenges of climate induced aridity across this semi-arid part of Syria. It is alsoworthmentioning here, that the rainy season of 2018/2019 wasoneof thebest inyearswhichexplainswhymoreacreagewasputunderrainfedfarminginmostpartsofSyria.Otherfactors which may affected the increase in land undercultivation for rain-fed agriculture may include stability from conflictandrenewedaccesstomorefields.Thiscouldalsomean,more landunderagricultureasawhole, landrightsandformalisingoflandownership,returneesaccessingtheirland,availabilityofinputsandlabour,etc.

Regarding the agricultural productivity, the scale ofwheatproduction also increased among the wheat value chainbeneficiariestoattainthesameaverageyieldofwheat(2.5tons/ha) in comparison to the wheat productivity of theeconomicallybetter-offnon-beneficiaries,theaveragewheatyieldincreasedamongthewheatvaluechainbeneficiariesofCARESRPfrom1.9to2.5metrictonsofgrainperhectareareaoverthestudytime,asFigure6presentsbelow.AmongtheCARESRPbeneficiaries,atthefollow-up,thehardwheatproductionrecordedthehighestaverageyieldby2.6tonsperhectare,whilethesoftwheatproductionrecordedanaverageof2.3tonsperhectare.Figure7belowshowsmoredetails.

BothHard Soft

BL

FU

1.9

1.8

2.6

2.3

BL

FU

1.2

30.29

68.5

0.77

68.59

30.64

HardSoft


67%

34%

Baseline

51% 54

%

Follow-up

60%

41%

Baseline

27%

74%

Follow-up

Figure 5: Wheat Type Grown in The Season in % both groups


REMOTE SENSING BASED WHEAT CROP VEGETATION EVALUATION

Tofurthertriangulatetheproductiongainsamongthebeneficiaries,remotesensingtechniqueswereusedtocomparethevegetation/plantcoverofthecomparablewheatcropfieldsfromtheCARESRPwheatvaluechainbeneficiariesandnon-beneficiaries;Duringthe2017farmingseason,thewheatcropfieldsofwheatvaluechainbeneficiariesofCARESRPwhohadnotreceiveanysupportatthattime,hadlowervegetation/plantcoveralongtheseasonwhencomparedtothefieldofthenon-beneficiarygroup,probablyduetothelimitedeconomiccapacityofthebeneficiarygroupthatlimittheirabilitytosupporttheirwheatcropfieldbyagronomicpracticeslikefertilization.Lookingatthe2018farmingseasonrevealedthattheCARESRPbeneficiary’swheatcropfieldsshowedabettervegetation/plantcovernormovertheseasonthatwasveryclosetothatofnon-beneficiaries,whereitevenexceededitatthematurationphase.Figure8belowshowsmore details.

Figure 8: Temporal presentation of the average wheat crop NDVI for the beneficiary and non-beneficiary groups, 2017-2018 & 2018-2019 wheat seasons

(NDV

I)

0

15

30

45

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OCT NOV DEC

2017 2018 2019

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL

Beneficiaries Non-Beneficiaries

Such a validated increase, reflects the impact of supporting the vulnerable beneficiaries by inputs and agriculturalguidancewhichempoweredthemtoreachthesameproductivitylevelofthebetter-offnon-beneficiarygroup,whichhighlightsapositiveimpactoftheprovidedsupporttothewheatvaluechainbeneficiariesinmeetingtheirneedsandimproving theiragriculturalproductivity, incomeand improvedhouseholdfinancial stabilityanddebt servicingasaresult.Suchimprovementsarelikelyboostingbeneficiary’seconomicresilience.


B. OLIVE VALUE CHAIN IMPACT ASSESSMENT STUDY

HOUSEHOLD SURVEYBACKGROUND

ThepurposeofthestudywastohighlighttheimpactoftheolivevaluechainapproachasitinformedtheFSLprojectactivitiesdesignwithintheCARESyriaResilienceProgramme-SRPinnorthwestSyria.Interventionsintheolivevaluechain included : 1) Training farmers on the best production and harvesting practices; 2) Conducting two rounds ofsprayingwithpesticidesafterathoroughtechnicalneedsassessment;3)Pruningolivetreesandadvancedtrainingtoexistinglabourersonpruningasabestagronomicpractices;4)Hiringlabourersthroughcashforworktohelpinoliveharvesting;5)ProvisionoftechnicalsupporttoselectedolivemillsaroundtheproductionareaswhoalsosupportedCARESRPbeneficiariesinpressingandprocessingtheirproduce;and6)Supportoilmarketfunctionalitythroughpurchasingtheoilwhichwasdistributedtovulnerablewomenheadedhouseholds.

Inthatregard,ananalysiswasdonetoevaluatehowtheolivevaluechaininformedFSLprogrammingimpactedonthefoodsecurityandlivelihoodstatusofthesupportedfarmers.Fortheimpactevaluation,retrospectiveanalysisforabaseline- follow-uphousehold surveyswere used tomeasure the changes in the economic, food security and vulnerabilityprofileoftheCARESRPbenefitinghouseholds,comparedtoagroupofnon-beneficiaries,overtheimplementationtime.SuchovertimeandbetweenfarmergroupscomparisonusedtotestthepotentialcontributionoftheolivevaluechaininformedFSLinterventionstotheobservedchangesamongthesetofthesetwofarminggroups.


METHODOLOGYSTUDY DESIGN

Followingthesamemethodologyofthewheatvaluechainimpactassessment,theolivevaluechainbeneficiaryimpactexerciseutilizedacompliedpaneldatasetthatwasgeneratedbymergingtheCARESRPNWFSLrollingbaselinehouseholdregistrationdatawith theend-line survey. Themergeddataset includedhouseholddata forCARESRPbeneficiariesand non-beneficiaries at the two time-points (baseline and end-line). This design aimed to enable capturing thecounterfactualdifferencesbetweenthegroupsandovertimeasameanfortheimpact.

Thematchedpaneldatasethasdataon516farminghouseholds,258householdsfromeachtimepoint,outofthem,27householdswerefemaleheaded.Therollingbaselinedatacamefromthefarminghousehold’sregistrationsurvey,whichwasconductedfromAugusttoNovember2018,thefollow-updatawascollectedduringAugust2019.Tobuildthematcheddataset,extensivedatacleaningandmanagementprocessesweredonetodealwithseveraldataqualityissuesandtoselectthesuitablevariablesfortheanalysis.Duetotheinabilityofdatavalidation,droppingproblematiccaseswastheadoptedapproachasagreedbetweeniMMAPandCARE.Theresultantmatchedpaneldatasetwasusedfortheanalysis to get the study results.

STUDY INDICATORS

Therollingbaselinehouseholdregistrationdatacontainedindicatorsonthefoodsecurity,economicvulnerabilityandoliveandoilproductivityaspectsofthehouseholds.Theindicatorsusedwere,foodconsumptionscore–FCS,livelihoodbasedcopingstrategies,andhouseholddebtvalue.

DATA ANALYSIS

Descriptiveandinferentialstatisticalanalysisweredoneontherelevantindicators,STATAV.15wasusedforthispurpose.

LIMITATIONS

Thesamelimitationsandmitigationmeasuresasdescribedinthechapteronthewheatvaluechainapply.Inadditionto those:

● Thehouseholdownednumberofolivetreeshadunexplainablehighfiguresof400-600amongbeneficiariesandnon-beneficiaries.WhichwasreportedorconfirmedtobeuntruebyCARENWFSLpersonnelteam.

● Theoliveproductionlevelwasnotconsistentwiththereportednumberofolivetreesforthesamehousehold,thereportedoliveproductionlevelsweretoolow,asvalidatedbyCARENWFSLpersonnelteam.

● Thiscasestudyismeasuring1-yearintervention,whileolivetreeiswellproductiveeveryotheryear.So,tomeasuretheimprovementbetweentwoseasonsitrequires3yearswherewecancapturetwoproductiveyears.

● The impact assessment studyonolivebeneficiaries for theoliveVC startedafter the completionof theoliveproduction season 2017/2018.


RESULTSFOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE

The overall food security situation among CARE SRP beneficiary households supported on olive and oil productionimprovedcomparingtothestatusatbaselinewithfollow-upstatusofthestudyperiod.Accordingtohouseholdfoodconsumptionscores,theproportionofhouseholdswithpoorfoodconsumptiondeclinedby13percentamongtheolivevaluechainbenefitinghouseholdswhileitincreased(by12%)amongnon-beneficiaryhouseholdsoverthestudyperiod(Figure9).ThisimpliedareductionintheshareofhouseholdswhowereseverelyfoodinsecureamongtheolivevaluechainbenefitinghouseholdsoverthestudyperiodwhichcouldbeattributedtotheolivevaluechaininterventionbyCARE SRP.

Figure 9: Food consumption Score

41%30%

29%

46%

17%

37%

58%

10%

32%

42%

22%

36%

Acceptable Borderline Poor

Baseline Follow-up

Non Beneficiary Non BeneficiaryBeneficiary Beneficiary

Botholivevaluechainbenefitingandnon-benefitinghouseholdsreportedtobestilladoptingbothcrisisandemergencylivelihoodcopingstrategiestoobtainfood.Thisindicatedahighlikelihoodofthedeterioratingfoodsecuritysituationin thenear future forbothgroups (CARESRPbeneficiariesandnon-beneficiaries)as livelihoodoptions/assetswererecordedasbeingeroded(Figure10).However,therewasan8percentincreaseintheproportionofolivevaluechainbenefiting households that reported no adoption of any such negative of unsustainable livelihood-based copingstrategies.Non-beneficiariesdidnotreportsuchanimprovement.

Figure 10: Livelihood Coping Strategies Adoption Prevalence

36%10%

48%6%

17%35%

13%35%

7%41%

5%47%

16%46%

10%28%

Baseline

Follow-up


Baseline

Follow-up

Crisis Coping Emergency CopingNo Coping Stress Coping


With a focus on female headed households, food consumption levels highly improved, especially when compared with male non-beneficiaries.Womenwithapoorfoodconsumptionscoredecreasedfrom33%to15%.Moreover,,householdswithacceptablefoodconsumptionscore(foodsecure)increasedfrom30percenttomorethandouble(63%)asshowninfigure10.This contrasts starkly against the male non-beneficiaries, where the proportion of people with an acceptable food consumption score decreased from 46% to 43%. This provides evidence that SRP’s targeted approaches to include women pay off.

Figure 11: Food consumption score by gender

43%19%

38%63%

15%

22%46%

25%

29%

30%

33%

37%

Acceptable Borderline Poor

Baseline

Male Female Male Female

Follow-up

HOUSEHOLD DEBT SITUATION

Moststudyrespondentsreportedstillhavinghouseholddebtsinthefollow-upsurvey.However,theshareofhouseholdsreportingthishasdeclinedcomparedtothebaselinephasewithahighermagnitudeofdeclinebeingreportedamongbeneficiaries. 72 percent of olive value chain beneficiary households reported to have borrowed money to coverhouseholds’expenses,afiguredownfrombaseline’s80percent.Ontheotherhand,theproportionofnon-beneficiaryhouseholdsthatreportedthesameslightlydeclinedby4percentfromthebaselinephasefigureof76percent.

Among those who reported having household debts, at least 30 percent (35%) of CARE SRP beneficiaries reportedstillusingmorethan30percentoftheirhouseholdincomeinpayingfortheirhouseholddebtsinthefollow-up.Thisreflectedadeclinefrom45percentinthebaselinephaseofthestudy.However,despiteahighermagnitudeofincreaseinhouseholddebtlevelamongnon-beneficiaryhouseholds,theproportionthatspendsabout10percentorlessoftheirhouseholdincomeondebtrepaymentsignificantlyincreasedincomparisontothebaselinephase.

CASE STUDY ON PRODUCTIVITY AND PROFITABILITY OF THE SUPPORTED OLIVE FARMING SEASON 2018-2019 Tocomplementthequantitativesurveyanalysis, threeolivefarmerswhobenefitedfromtheCARESRP interventionswere interviewedtogather further informationontheproductivityandprofitabilityof theirolive farmingseason. Inaddition,thechallengesthatthebeneficiariesfacedwerediscussed,includingsomeinsightsonthechallengesthatwerefaced by olive female farmers.


BACKGROUND

Olive is considered a livelihood and food security plantation crop and has been historically a main agricultural activity inthenorthwestregionofSyria.Accordingtothekeyinformants;thecitizensinthetargetedcommunitiesofIdlibandAleppogovernorateshaveextendedexperienceinoliveproductionwhichresemblesmorethan60percentofincomeforitsfarmers.ItisworthmentioningherethatthesetwogovernoratesusedtoproducemorethanfortypercentofthefinestqualityoliveoilofSyria.

HistoricallySyrianwomenparticularlyacrossruralareas,tendedtotakepartinagriculturalactivities,especiallyinoliveandfruitharvestingbesidethecultivationofhomegardensandsomemedicinalplantsaswellaslookingafterpoultryandafewnumbersofsmallruminants.Theiractivitiesusuallytendedtoextendtoolivepicklinganddairyprocessing.Unfortunately,theconflicthasdistortedthoseactivitiesandresultedinlimitingthewomenactivitiestosomefieldcropproduction,olivepicking,andsmall-scaledairyproduction.

TheconflicthasadevastatingeffectonoliveproductioninthenorthwestregionofSyria.Theadverseeffectsrangedfrommakingolivefieldsasscenesofmilitaryoperationsresultingindestructionandburningoffieldsandrepellingfarmersfromaccessingtheirfieldforconsecutiveseasons;Thefemaleolivefarmers,similartothoseofwheat;lookforneighbourswhileplanningtheirvisitstotheirfieldsduetothefragilesecuritysituations.Asituationthatsignificantlyreduced themadhere to their orchards. Theweak orchardmanagement resulting from the conflict extended to thespreadofolivepestsmainlyolivefruitfly(Bactroceraoleae)anddiseasessuchaspeacockspot(Spilocaeaoleaginea)whichcausesignificantlossesinyieldaswellascausingfruitrotandloweroilquality.

Thespreadofsuchpestsanddiseasescouldalsobeduetolackofgovernmentsupportthatusedtoberenderedbytheformallendinginstitutionsintermsofqualityinputsincludingfertilizersandpesticides.Thedeterioratingexchangerateof the Syrian pound to valuable foreign currencies also contributed to the increasing inputs prices to levels beyond the olivefarmerspurchasingabilities.Theadverseclimateconditionsnamelytheheatwavesalsocontributedtoloweringoliveproductionintheregion.Theinadequatemethodoffruitpickingresultsinshreddingofleavesresultingininstabilityof olive production across the seasons.

The oil value chain intervention aimed at addressing the problems facing the most vulnerable olive producers. The followingeconomicanalysisillustrateshowwomenempowermentwasattainedthroughtheolivevaluechaininterventionasthewomenareconsideredamongthemostvulnerableoliveproducers.

METHODOLOGY

Threeolive farmerswere interviewedover thephone, to gather information covering the socioeconomic aspectsofoliveproducers, theconflict impactonoliveproduction,and thesupport renderedby the interveningorganizationsandfinally,theeconomicaspectsofoliveproductionwerecoveredthroughkeyinformants’interviews.Twoofthethreefarmers selectedwere femaleswhoprovidedgender sensitive informationon thedifferentaspectsofolive farmingacross the studied areas of NW Syria.


RESULTS

FEMALES AS OLIVE FARMERS

Twofemalefarmerswhoare70and67yearsoldwereinterviewedtostudytheirproductivityandprofitability.Eachofthemowns50olivetrees(onfivedunums).Thefirstwomenreportedtohavebeenpracticingoliveproductionforthelast50yearswhiletheotherstartedthatactivitysince2003whenherhusbanddied.The older woman was displaced with her family for two years after the start of the crisis in 2011, whereas, the other farmer remained in the village but could not access her farm to an extended period due to the risk.

Thecostof inputs includesnitrogen fertilizerwhich isusedata rateof3kgperolive tree.Ploughing isdonethreetimesatthecostof1,500SYPperdonum.ThecostsofharvestedproducetransportationandpestanddiseasecontrolwereprovidedassupporttothefarmersfromtheWatanorganizationwhichisCAREInternational’slocalimplementingpartnerforimplementingtheolivevaluechainintervention.Themarketvalueofthisinterventionisestimatedatabout80,000SYPforprotectingfivedunumswhichwasmorethan30percentofthetotalcost.Although the plant protection services were provided to all targeted CARE SRP beneficiaries regardless of their gender; however, this support was of more value to women as their olive productivity would have been much lower and with poor quality, a situation that would have deepened the vulnerability of their low-income families.

No irrigation was reported by the interviewed female farmers attributing that to unaffordable cost that can reach 60,000 SYP for 6 irrigations cycles that used to be required and done before the conflict during July, August, andSeptember;however,onefemalefarmerstatedthattheprovisionofsupplementaryirrigationcanraisetheyieldandimprovethequalityespeciallyforgreenoliveproduction.

Olivepickingwasreporteddonemanuallywithacostof1275SYPfor50kgofolivefruitpicked.Theinterventiononthe olive value chain providedplastic boxes to promote the goodquality of the pickedolive fruits, aswell as freetransportation fordeliveryof theolive fruits to themillingplants, an additional cost of transportationwouldhaveencoredatanaverageof4500SYPperdeliverytotheolivepressingplant.

Theoliveprocessing industrywasalsodevastatedby theconflictas the instabilityofelectricity forced thepressingmills to use diesel generators to operate their plants and hence imposed a rate of 10 percent to be deducted from the producedoliveoilbesidetheolivecakequantitiesresultingfromtheprocessasacompensationfortheincurredcost;acostthatusedtobecompensatedonlyfromtheobtainedolivecakequantitybeforeconflict.

Theolivevaluechainprogramintervenedthroughprovidingsupporttooliveoilpresserownersintermsofstainless-steelcontainerstopreservetheoliveoilqualityaswellasfireextinguishersandtoolkitsforcheckingtheoilacidity(pH)oftheproducedoilwhichisamainstandardthatisusedindictatingtheoilprice.Theoilprocessingaddstoabout20percent of the cost of production.

The revenues gained by farmers is sourced from olive oil production. The interviewed female farmers managed to produce about 18 tins on average (16 litres per tin) that they sold at 14,000 SYP per tin;whichisabout56percentlessthanthepriceduringthepre-conflictera.Anothersourceofincomewasthesellingofgreenolivewhichwasestimatedatanaverageof200kgofthebestqualityolivefruits;however,thisquantityisnormallykeptforfamilyconsumption.Thelowqualityofgreenoliveresultingfromlackofsupplementaryirrigationandthedelayofreceivingthesellingpricefora long period that can reach six months induce the olive farmers to refrain from producing green olive at a larger scale.


ThesiegethattheolivebeltofnorthwestSyriafacescomplicatesthemarketingprocessresultinginreducedoliveoilpricesaccompaniedbytheinabilitytoexporttoneighbouringcountriesduetothelackoforiginandqualitycertificatesthat are controlled by the Syrian government. One of the female farmers indicated that she distributed almost the entire olive oil she produced among her daughters and sons due to market inaccessibility. The other female farmer managedtosellheroliveoilat theprevailingmarketpricementioning thatshewasable toaccess themarket inaconvenient manner.

Theattainedprofitwasabout21percentandincreasedto104percentafterdeductingthecostsoftransportationandpestscontrolwhichwasprovidedassupportthroughtheolivevaluechainundertheCARESRPinnorthwestSyriaregion.Thetable1belowillustratestheaveragecostofoliveproductionandprofitabilityfortheinterviewedfemalefarmers.

Table 1: Inputs and yield of 5-donums area of olive trees

Item Quantity Unit Price Total

LocalNitrogenFertilizer(Urea46)in50Kgsack 3 9,500 28,500

Ploughing 3 7,500 22,500

Pesticides(3applicationforlivefly+2forolivepeacockspot) including cost of labour 5 15,900 79,500

Total cost per 5 dunum (50 olive trees) 130,500

Handpicking(foranaverageproductionof1750Kgofol-ivesfrom50trees)(inlabourcostfor50kgpickedolive) 35 1,275 44,625

Transportation to pressing plant (in cost per shipment) 4 4,500 18,000

Hand picking and transportation to oil pressing plant 62,625

Pressingcostisencoredinkindat10%ofproducedoil(number oil tins produced is 20 tins sold at 14000 SYP per tin)

10% 280,000 28,000

Tin costs 18 1,000 18,000

Total olive pressing cost for oil production 46,000

Total Cost 239,125

Revenue from green olive (for home consumption) (200 Kg@250SYPperKg) 200 250 50,000

Quantity of oil (estimated at 20 tins (16 litre per tin) less 10%pressingcost-netis18tinsforfarmer 18 14,000 252,000

Total revenues 302,000

Net profit 62,875


C. IMPACT ASSESSMENT DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONSDISCUSSIONS CARESRP team inpartnershipwith iMMAPcarriedoutanddisseminated theWheatValueChainassessmentsat theinception of SRP to inform FSL programming in Syria. These assessments, prepared in full participation of CARE’simplementingpartnersandotherstakeholdersinsideSyria,wereusedtodeveloptheFSLimplementedvaluechainplansacrossthedifferentfourhubs.Therolesofthemarketactorsinvolvedinproducing,processing,tradingandconsumingthewheatandolivevaluechainswereanalysedtocomeupwiththerecommendationstoaddressthechallengesfacingthemarketactorsandunlocking theopportunities thatwould increase thehousehold incomesof thecommunities,increase employment and build the resilience of the Syrian people. The different studies presented above aimed to evaluatetheimpactassessmentofthevaluechaininterventions.Asmentionedintheresultsoftheprevioussections,theanalysedindicatorsshowedpositiveimpactoftheFSLinterventionsacrossthetwovaluechainsonthetargetedbeneficiaries,whichismatchingthefindingsofothermonitoringexercisesthatwereconductedbyCARE.TheMidtermEvaluation reporthighlighted that the targetedbeneficiariesofCARESRPbenefitted from theactivitiesbyadoptingfewernegativecopingstrategies.Onarelevantnote,thefindingsalsoalignwiththeresultsoftheresiliencestudythatconcludedthatsupportinghouseholdenterprisesandlivelihoodsthathaveroomandopportunitytogrowthroughacombinationofinterlinkedsupportareparticularlyeffective.Impactisincreasedwhenaprogramoffersacombinationofinterlinkedservices,includingnewskillstrainingandapprenticeshipsalongsideprovidingaccesstofinanceasworkingcapitalandlinkstoemployers,entrepreneurialskillstraining,andmarketlinkages.ThisisexactlywhattheVCapproachistargetinginthewheatandolivevaluechain.


WHEAT VALUE CHAINCARESRPwheatvaluechainapproachforFSLprogrammingwasplannedtoprovidewheatfarmerswithprovisionofwheatinputsaswellasagriculturaltraining,specificallyontheeffectivenessofusingcropinputs.Thiswasreinforcedbycashforworkprojectsinfireprevention,firefightingandpestcontrolaswellasinvestmentsinproductiveinfrastructuretoimproveirrigation,storage,processingandmarketingofwheat.Inputprovisionlikepesticides,herbicides,seeds,andfertilizersaimedatimprovingfarmers’capacitytoattainhigheryieldsofwheatandtoprofitablyparticipateasviablechainactorsacrossthewheatvaluechaininSyria.Forinstance,applicationofnitratefertilizerswhereeachCARESRPwheat farmerbeneficiary received 200kgof this important fertilizer for application inwheat cropfields, thenitratefertilizer can increasewheat cropyieldbybetween20and30percent inSyria(FAO, 2003) (thereby improvingwheatproductivitywhichislinkedtofarmer’shouseholdincome),howevermanywheatfarmersoutsidetheCARESRPdonothavethefinancialcapacitytopurchasethehigh-qualitycropinputs,andeitherpurchasealowerqualityinputsornoneatall.Ontheotherhand,itisvitaltohighlighttheimportanceandvaluegainedfromlinkingthesevariouscyclesofthevaluechains.Forexample,thelinkageofthewheatvaluechainprovidingreadilyavailablecropresidueasanimalfeed/foddertothelivestockvaluechain,whereas,thelivestockvaluechainalsoprovidescompostedmanuretoimprovesoilfertilityforcropproduction,reducingthecostofsoilfertilization.

ThesurveyedCARESRPbeneficiariesinthewheatvaluechainshowedsignificantgainsinseveralindicators,includinghigherhouseholdincome, lesshouseholddebtservicing,higherwheatproductioncapacityandreducedadoptionofnegativeorunsustainablelivelihoodbasedcopingstrategies.Whencomparingthedataofbeneficiarieswiththoseofnon-beneficiaries, it isevident thatCARESRP targeted themorevulnerablehouseholds,andsuccessfullysupportedthesehouseholdstoclosetheincome-gapwithrelativelybetter-offhouseholds.Thisimpactassessmentshowedthatbeneficiariesgainedanimprovedeconomiccapacityfromasustainableagriculturalincomesource.Thisdecreasedtheneed of the households to adopt unsustainable livelihood based coping strategies to meet their basic needs. Such improvementsarefosteringhouseholdresilienceandeconomicpotential.Theseimprovementswerelikelycausedbythehigherhouseholdincomewhichisgainedfromtheimprovedwheatproduction.Clearly,thecurrentCARESRPsupportthatthewheatfarmersreceivedisthemaincontributortosuchgains,whichtriggersthequestionofsustainingsuchimprovementaftertheendofthecurrentsupport.Theanswertothiscallshallbepartofthebeneficiarygraduationplanofthisproject,whichiMMAPrecommendsbeincludedintheexitstrategy..

OLIVE VALUE CHAINIntheolivevaluechainprogramminginNWSyria,oliveprojectactivitiesweredesignedtofocusmoreonpre-identifiedchallengesonoliveoilqualityassuranceandboostingtheoliveoilmarketfunctionality.Thisincludedolivetreepruningandnewroundsofchemicalpesticidetreatmentswhichweresupportedtotimelytookplacetocompletetheannualolive production calendar. Beneficiaries in the SRPsolive value chain activities showan improvement of their foodconsumptionscore,areductionoftheadoptionofnegative livelihoodbasedcopingstrategies,andreductionoftheburdenofdebtanddebtservicing.Particularly femaleheadedhouseholdssawtheir foodconsumptionlevelshighlyimproved,especiallywhencomparedwithmalenon-beneficiaries.The%womenwithapoorfoodconsumptionscoredecreased from33% to 15%whilewomenwith acceptable food consumption score (food secure) increased from30percent tomore thandouble (63%). This contrasts starklyagainst themalenon-beneficiaries,where theproportionofpeoplewithanacceptablefoodconsumptionscoredecreasedfrom46%to43%.ThisprovidesevidencethatSRP’stargetedapproachestoincludewomenpayoff.


Generally,thesupportforolivetreeplantationproductionundertheCARESRPhadmultiplierpositiveeffectsintheformofavailingseasonalemploymenttolocalpeopleastheyarehiredtopickolives.Olivepickingrequirestimelyseasonalcasual labourduringtheolivepickingseason,andthis temporaryemploymentprovidedbythrivingoliveplantationemploys most of the vulnerable people to provide casual labour thereby receiving cash to access food items and other livelihoodneeds.TheCARESRPunlockedthepossibilitiesinlinkagesofvaluechainsapproachforfoodsecurityandlivelihood restoration in Syria as people can rely upon readily available local materials to meet their household needs throughdiversificationof livelihoodsoptions.For instance,fromtheCARESRPsupportedolivevaluechainthereareby-productslikeolive-cakefromolivefruitpressingsforoilproductionandwoodmaterialfromtreepruningwhicharerawmaterialstothefuelwoodchainthroughcharcoalproduction.Thentheolivefruitchaffisusedasrawmaterialtoproducetheolivecake,whichinturnisusedaslivestockfeed,thuslinkedtothelivestockvaluechain.Whereastheolivefruitchaffisanalsoarawmaterialforsoapdetergentmaking,thuscontributingtohouseholdhygiene,apracticehighlyadoptedbyfemalebeneficiaries.All these interlinked/multiplier effects of the olive value chain ensure connectivity and sustainability of these important value chains by interdependence on locally available raw materials for diversified livelihood activities for the Syrian population. Thesefindingsalignwith theApril 2019PostDistributionMonitoringfindings,whichhighlightedthatover94percentofolivefarmersindicatedanimprovementintheoverallstateoftheirolivetreescomparedtopreviousyearintermsoffruitcolour,numberandlengthofvegetativegrowth.Farmersalsoreportedthequalityofoliveoilproducedduringthisseasonasimprovedintermsofacidityandtastewhencomparedtothelastyear.Additionally,theefficiencyoftheharvestprocesswasreportedincreasedwhilefruitfallingnumbershave decreased since the CARE SRP programme began. CARE SRP PDM results indicated an increased economic status of thesupportedhouseholdsasaresultandwasreflectedintermsoftheirincreasedexpenditure.CARESRPPDMresultsshowedanincreasedspendingonhouseholdhealth,education,food,debt,heatingandreinvestingintheirfarms.

WOMEN ECONOMIC EMPOWERMENT THROUGH OLIVE AND WHEAT VALUE CHAIN INFORMED FSL PROGRAMMINGOneof the strategic objectives of the livelihood and value chain strategy of the CARE SRPwas to ensure a genderfocusintheValueChains&LivelihoodsOutputs.Tocontributetothisobjective,gender-sensitiveprojectactivitieswereimplementedunderCARESRPtoempowerandpromotewomenaseconomicleadersandnotlimitedtojustparticipating.Thegendermainstreamingfarmertrainingwasdelivered,whichwereintendedtoseektobuildequitablecustoms(socialnorms),activestructures(externalenvironmentandagency(individualcapacity),aswellasindividualgender-equitablebehaviouracrosstheCARESRPparticipants.GendermainstreamingwasalsoconsideredintheFSLtailoringactivitiesduringthewheat,andoliveVCsimplementation.InthecontextofnorthwestSyria,targetingwomenwithspecificallydesignedsocio-economicempowermentprogramsareneeded,as theeconomicstudyhighlightedwomenhadtobemoreactive in theagriculturesector toprovide for theirhouseholds,as theystand inasmainhouseholdprovidersreplacingthedeparteddead,disabledmalehouseholdheadsormaleyouths.Forinstance,ahighernumberofCARESRPbeneficiaries,74%ofthesurveyedfemalehouseholdheads,arewidowedfendingfortheirhouseholds.NineyearsofbrutalcivilwarinSyriahavehaddevastatingconsequencesonthecountry’swomen.Ashundredsofthousandsofmenandmaleyouthshavebeenkilled,detained,conscriptedintomilitaryforceorsimplygonemissing.Womenhavebeenforcedtocomeupwithnewwaystosupporttheirfamiliesastheroleofbreadwinnerwasthrustuponthem.ManySyrianwomenwhosawagricultureastheironlyhopewerehinderedbytheirscantexperienceinfarmingandalackofaccessto information on funding and training opportunities.


Prior to the conflict, agriculturewas amale-dominated field, whichmeans thatwomen are faced nowwith severalchallengesduringthepresentconflict.Theyoftenlackknowledgeofmarketrequirements,havelimitedfarmingskillsandexperience inwheatandoliveproduction,marketing their foods, lackaccess to informationabout fundingandtrainingopportunities forfieldstaplecropaswellasplantationcropproduction likewheatandolives, respectively.Duringthepre-crisisera,womenweremainlyconfinedtobackyardkitchengardeningusingprimitiveequipmentthattheywouldhavehadbeenhandeddownthegeneration(s)byelderwomen.However, with the onset of the wheat and olive value chain informed FSL programming through the CARE SRP, more Syrian rural women farm producers, and their communities were supported to become more self-resilient by enhancing their capacity in wheat and olive production and agribusiness skills.CARESRPprovidedthemwithaprovisionofgoodqualityinputs(suchasseedsandfertilizers),trainingonsustainablewheatandoliveproductionandmarketing;andstrengthenswomencropproducers,reinforcingwomen’s roles at a timewhen they are shouldering a lot of responsibilities during the present Syrian conflict. TheSyrianwomensupportedbyCARESRPgainedknowledgeonallaspectsofwheatandoliveproduction,marketingandvaluechainsofarangeofproducts-includingwheatflourtobreadmakingforsaleanduseofwheatcropresidue/hayforhomemadelivestockfeed/fodderformulationsaswellastheuseofolivefruitchafftoproducehomemadesoapdetergentsforhouseholdhygiene-andtopassonthisknowledgetootherwomenintheircommunities.

RESEARCH RECOMMENDATIONS ● AssessingtheImpactoftheFSLinterventionsisrecommendedforthefutureimplementingcycle,asithelpsin

measuringtheeffectivenessofsuchinterventions,documentingandsharingbestpracticesandevidence-basedrecommendations.

● CARE data system requires capacity building in the area of technical tools building, tool coding, data qualityassurance,andvalidation.

● Forsuchkindofstudies,itisrecommendedtocollectdatathatisspecificallycollectedforthiskindofstudies,meetingtheneededtechnicalrequirementandtherequiredlevelofdataquality

● Asobserved inbothvaluechains,womenhaveanactive role in theproductionandprocessingphasesof thevaluechains,however,itisrecommendedtodoacomprehensivegenderfocusedstudy,tospecificallycapturethechallengesandopportunitiesthatwomenhavealongthevaluechains,towellinformthegendersensitiveandspecificinterventions.

PROGRAMMING RECOMMENDATIONS ● Sustaining thewheatandolive farmers’productivitybeyond thecurrentprogramsupportshouldbe themain

componentofthebeneficiarygraduationplanofCARE’sSRP.

● Increasingthelocalfarmers’productionneedstobepartofawhole-value-chainsupportplan, includingpost-harvestmarketaccesssupport,toavoidsurplussupplyinducedfarmerunprofitability,whichcandiscouragethewheatfarminginthesupportedareaoverthefollowingseasons.

● Based on the fact that there are several opportunities along each CARE SRP supported value chain (olive and wheat)ashavebeenidentifiedwithlinkagestoothervaluechains(e.glivestockfeed,soap,charcoalfuel,etc),there is a need to consolidate such gains by proposing funding to upscale and replicate the support for such integrateddiversifiedlivelihoodoptionsaimedatsustainablefoodsecurityandlivelihoodrestorationthroughamarketsystemsbasedrecoveryinSyria.

● Giventhereportedgenderimbalanceinthecurrentpolesofbeneficiaries,thereisneedforincreasingthetargetingfocusonwomeninordertobalancethenumberofwomenVCbeneficiaries.


● Theolivevaluechainsupportservicesclearlybenefitedtheinvolvedwomen,improvedtheirfoodsecurityandhouseholdincomeprofile,itisrecommendedtoconsidergenderspecificservicepackagesforthewomenintheolivevaluechain.Specifically,intheprocessingandtradingphases,forexample,womenvocationaltrainingthatfollowedbyassetorcashforworktosupportprocessing, thenamarketaccess initiative likearegular farmermarket. Such comprehensive package shall help achieving women economic empowerment in a sustainablemarket-basedapproach.

● It is recommended to support the establishment of an e-agriculture extension service delivery platform to create information sharing channels (market support through amobile application for traders and farmers to shareinformationonproductionandmarketprice information).Withsuchamobileplatform,eventhehome-basedwomenfarmerswithacultureoflessfreedomofmovementtothemarketcanalsomarkettheirfarmproducethroughonlinemarketinginthecomfortoftheirhomestofetchhigherpricemarkets.

● It is recommended to support the broader market system-based approach for food security and livelihoodrestorationprogrammingsoastosupportthewidervaluechainactors,forinstance,thesupportforthewheatvaluechainshouldbeextendedtoembracetheWheat-FlourtoBreadvaluechaintargetingMillersandBakeriessupportgiventhatbreadisthestaplefoodinSyria(SyriaFFP_USAID&IMMAP,2019).

LESSONS LEARNED ● Insomevaluechains,suchaswheat,womenparticipationisverylimitedduetoculturalaspects.However,CARE

anditspartnersareplanningforincreasingthewomenroleinthewheatvaluechaininY5ofSRP.Forinstance,morewomeninvolvementisexpectedinthewheatvaluechain,especiallyintheNWS.CAREiscurrentlytailoringnewactivitiestoproduceFreekeh(GreenWheat)usingmodernandsimpletechniques.About4-5womengroupswillbeestablishedandprovidedwithFreekehroastingmachinesduringtheupcomingwheatharvestingseasoninNWS.ThesemachineswouldbeusedbywomengroupsformanyyearstocometoproducetheirowncleanfoodandsellhighqualityFreekehinthelocalmarkets.

● OneofthelearntlessonsinthewheatVCwaslinkingtheactivitiesoftheSRPwiththeFFPprogram.TheFFPprogramhaspurchasedthewheatproducedbytheSRPbeneficiariesintheNWwhichthenwasmilledanddistributedtobakeriesatAl-Babdistrict forproducingbreed. This linkagebetween the twodonors-programshaspositivelyimpactedthewheatproducers.SRPinY5willbeestablishingmorelinkageswithotherprogramssuchastheSIDA,Multi-Donor-Funds (MDF) and FFP.


ANNEX 1: IMPACT ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS INDICATORS THE FOOD CONSUMPTION SCORE (FCS):

● isacomposite indicatorbasedondietarydiversity, food frequency,andrelativenutritional importanceof thevariousfoodgroupsconsumedoverarecallperiodofsevendays.ThehighertheFCS,thehigherthedietarydiversityandfrequency.Highfoodconsumptionincreasestheprobabilitythatahouseholdachievesnutritionaladequacy.FCSclassifieshouseholdsintooneofthreecategories:poor,borderlineandacceptablefoodconsumption(VAMassessmentsteaminWFPHQ,2015).

THE REDUCED COPING STRATEGY INDEX (RCSI) ● rCSIiscommonlyusedasaproxyindicatorforaccesstofoodassessingtheusesofthefivemostcommonbehavioural

changesinresponsetofoodshortages.(rCSI)consistsofaseriesoffivequestionsabouthowhouseholdscopewithashortfallinfoodforconsumptionandresultsinasimplenumericscore.AhigherCSImeansthathouseholdsadoptedmorecopingmechanismstofacetheirchallenges(MaxwellandCaldwell,2008).

THE LIVELIHOOD-BASED COPING STRATEGY ● It’saisthemeasureusedtobetterunderstandlonger-termhouseholdcopingcapacities.Householdlivelihood

andeconomicsecurity isdeterminedby income,expenditures,andassets.Understanding thebehaviours thathouseholdsengageintoadapttorecentcrisesprovidesinsightsintothedifficultyoftheirsituation,andhowlikelytheywillbetomeetchallengesinthefuture.Householdswereaskedifanyoneintheirhouseholdshadtoengageinanyofthelivelihoodbasedcopingstrategiesbecausetherewasnotenoughfoodormoneytobuyfoodduringthepast30days.Stressstrategies,crisisstrategies,andemergencystrategieswereaskedbasedontheseverityofthestrategiesinthelocalcontext.Thehighertheseverityoftheadopted,thehigherthedegreeofeconomichardship that the household faces.

REMOTE SENSING METHODOLOGY FOR WHEAT VEGETATION EVALUATION ● Topreparethedatarequirementsforthisanalysis,midpointGPScoordinatesforasampleof20wheatcropfields

wereacquired,10of thembelongedtoSRPbeneficiaries,andtheother10belongedtonon-beneficiaries.ThefieldswereselectedfromAlBab,A’zaz,andJarablusdistricts.

● TheMOD13Q116-dayVegetationIndexdataweredownloadedfromNASALPDAACconsistingoffourtiles(h20v05,h20v06,h21v05,andh21v06)coveringSyria,JordananIraq.ThedatarepresentedtheyearsfromJanuary2001toJuly2019,coveringan18-yeartimeframe.The16-daydatawereconvertedto10-daydekadsinordertoproducethreestandardcompositespermonth.Theoriginal16-bitdatawereconvertedto8-bitdataandasmoothingalgorithmwasappliedtothetimeseries.Theweightedleast-squares(SWETS)algorithmwasusedtoproduce10-daydekadsfor2001to2019.ThisapproachusesamovingwindowoperatingontemporalNDVItocalculatearegressionline.Thewindowismovedoneperiodatatime,resultinginafamilyofregressionlinesassociatedwitheachpoint;thisfamilyoflinesisthenaveragedateachpointandinterpolatedbetweenpointstoprovideacontinuoustemporalNDVI signal. Also, since the factors that cause contaminationusually serve to reduceNDVI values, the systemappliesaweightingfactorthatfavourspeakpointsoverslopingorvalleypoints.AfinaloperationassuresthatallpeakNDVIvaluesareretained.

● Oncethesmoothingalgorithmwasappliedoneachofthefourtiles,theyweremosaicedintoasingleimageperdekadandre-projectedfromSinusoidaltoUniversalTransverseMercator(UTM)usingtheEPSG:32637Projectedcoordinate system for 37 degrees North.

● TheNDVIdakadswereloadedintoadatabase,andArcGISprovidedthetoolsforextractingthepixelvaluesthroughtime.


REFERENCES ● FAO(2003)‘FertilizerusebycropintheSyrianArabRepublic’,FertilizerUsebyCropintheSyrianArabRepublic.

● Maxwell,D.andR.dCaldwell(2008)‘TheCopingStrategiesIngixGuidelineAtoolformeasurementofhouseholdfoodsecurityandtheimpactofaidprogramesinhumaniterianemregency;FieldMethodManual’,EducationalandPsychologicalMeasurement,1(3),pp.1–47.doi:10.1177/0013164412465875.

● Syria FFP_USAID & IMMAP (2019) Wheat-to-Bread Processing Facility Mapping and Need Assessment StudyNorthwestSyria.

● VAMassessmentsteaminWFPHQ(2015)‘FoodConsumptionScoreNutritionalAnalysis(FCS-N)Guidelines’.

Documents

FEBRUARY 2020 · February 2020 : Impact Assessment of the Wheat and Olive FSL Programming in Northwest Syria 3 ACRONYM DFID Department for International Development DTI Debt to Income