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Republic of Maldives Ministry of Housing, Transport and Environment (MHTE) Maldives Energy Authority (MEA) State Electric Company Limited (STELCO)
FEASIBILITY STUDY
FOR APPLICATION OF PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER
ON MALE’ AND HULHUMALE’ ISLANDS
IN
THE REPUBLIC OF MALDIVES
FINAL REPORT
NOVEMBER 2009
JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY
YACHIYO ENGINEERING CO., LTD
SHIKOKU ELECTRIC POWER CO., INC.
PREFACE
In response to a request from the Republic of Maldives, the Government of Japan decided to conduct the Feasibility Study for Application of Photovoltaic Power on Male’ and Hulhumale’ Islands and entrusted to the study to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA selected and dispatched a study team headed by Mr.
Tadayuki Ogawa of Yachiyo Engineering Co., LTD. (yec) and consists of yec and Shikoku Electric Power Co., INC. four times between February and November, 2009.
The team held discussions with the officials concerned of the
Government of Maldives and conducted field surveys at the study area. Upon returning to Japan, the team conducted further studies and prepared this final report.
I hope that this report will contribute to the promotion of this
project and to the enhancement of friendly relationship between our two countries.
Finally, I wish to express my sincere appreciation to the
officials concerned of the Government of Maldives for their close cooperation extended to the study. November 2009
Atsuo Kuroda Vice President Japan International Cooperation Agency
Mr. Atsuo Kuroda Vice President Japan International Cooperation Agency
LETTER OF TRANSMITTAL
November 2009 Dear Sir, It is my great pleasure to submit herewith the Final Report of “The Feasibility Study for Application of Photovoltaic Power on Male’ and Hulhumale’ Islands in the Republic of Maldives”. The Study Team conducted field surveys in Maldives over the period between February and November, 2009 according to the contract with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The Study Team compiled this report, which consists of the Technical, Economic and Financial Feasibility Study to introduce Grid-connected Photovoltaic (PV) System, Detail Design for Pilot Project, examination on Value-added Measures, and Long-term Action Plan, etc. through close consultations with officials concerned of the Government of the Republic of Maldives and other authorities concerned. In addition to compiling this report, technical transfer and human resource development have been conducted through collaboration work with counterpart engineers in Maldives, and counterpart training at concerned organizations in Japan for the capacity development in planning and designing of Grid-connected PV system. On behalf of the Study Team, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to officials concerned of the Government of Maldives and other authorities concerned for their cooperation, assistance, and heartfelt hospitality extended to the Study Team. We are also deeply grateful to the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and the Embassy of Japan in Sri Lanka for their valuable suggestions and assistance during the course of the Study.
Yours faithfully,
Tadayuki Ogawa Team Leader The Feasibility Study for Application of Photovoltaic Power on Male’ and Hulhumale’ Islands in the Republic of Maldives
Location Map of the Project Sites
MALDIVES
MALE
MALE
Pos
sibl
e Lo
cati
ons
for
PV
In
stal
lati
ons
Mal
eP
V
Pos
sibl
e Lo
cati
ons
for
PV
In
stal
lati
ons
Hu
lhu
mal
eP
V
Eva
luat
ion
of th
e po
tent
ial s
ites
in M
ale'
and
Hul
hum
ale'
Isla
nds
Isla
ndN
o.1
35
67
89
Site
nam
eS
TELC
OB
uild
ing
Dha
ruba
arug
e(P
ublic
Wor
ks B
uild
ing)
Giy
aasu
dhee
nS
choo
lK
alaa
faan
uS
choo
lM
aldi
ves
Cen
ter
for S
ocia
l Edu
catio
nTh
aaju
ddee
nS
choo
lN
ew S
econ
dary
Sch
ool f
or G
irls
Inst
alla
tion
loca
tion
Roo
ftop
Bui
ldin
g ro
ofB
uild
ing
roof
,R
oofto
pB
uild
ing
roof
Bui
ldin
g ro
ofB
uild
ing
roof
Bui
ldin
g ro
of
Ava
ilabl
e ar
ea [m
2 ]62
02,
420
520
950
1,18
01,
460
1,44
0
PV
cap
acity
[kW
p]45
8540
8510
013
010
0A
nnua
lpo
wer
gen
erat
ion
[kW
h]45
,739
100,
382
48,3
7811
7,06
912
0,94
515
7,22
890
,778
Sha
de c
ondi
tion
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
OK
Rei
nfor
cem
ent o
fex
istin
g st
ruct
ure
Unn
eces
sary
Nee
d ex
amin
atio
nU
nnec
essa
ryU
nnec
essa
ryU
nnec
essa
ryU
nnec
essa
ryU
nnec
essa
ryS
pace
for
Pow
er C
ondi
tione
rE
noug
hN
eed
to fi
nd a
nad
ditio
nal e
lect
ric ro
omE
noug
hN
eed
to fi
nd a
nad
ditio
nal e
lect
ric ro
omE
noug
hE
noug
hE
noug
h
Cab
le ro
ute
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
Inte
rcon
nect
ion
feed
erFD
9FD
3FD
6FD
3FD
6FD
6FD
6Tr
ansf
orm
er N
o.20
B60
7061
6223
23C
apac
ity [k
VA
]50
063
015
010
020
010
0010
00
Site
ow
ner
STE
LCO
MH
TEM
inis
try o
f Edu
catio
nM
inis
try o
f Edu
catio
nM
inis
try o
f You
thM
inis
try o
f Edu
catio
nM
inis
try o
f Edu
catio
n
App
rova
l fro
m o
wne
r
O &
ME
asy
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Saf
ety
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
Pub
lic R
elat
ions
Impa
ctM
iddl
eM
iddl
eM
iddl
eM
iddl
eH
igh
Mid
dle
Mid
dle
Cos
t
Pho
to
Ove
rall
Com
men
ts
/The
pan
el s
uppo
rtst
ruct
ural
is n
eces
sary
/Con
stru
ctio
n of
foo
ting
and
wat
er p
roof
ing
isne
cess
ary
/O &
M is
eas
y be
caus
eth
ere
are
man
yst
aff
/Exi
stin
g bu
ildin
g is
not
perm
anen
t stru
ctur
e./L
arge
are
a of
roof
/As-
build
DW
G n
ot fo
und
/Det
ail i
nves
tigat
ion
isne
cess
ary
/The
exc
hang
e of
the
roof
mat
eria
l is
nece
ssar
y/T
he s
pace
of t
he e
lect
ricro
om is
eno
ugh
/The
exc
hang
e of
the
roof
mat
eria
l is
nece
ssar
y/T
he e
xcha
nge
of th
e ro
ofm
ater
ial i
s ne
cess
ary
/The
re is
eno
ugh
spac
efo
r equ
ipm
ents
abo
ve th
eel
ectri
c ro
om
/Lar
ge a
rea
of ro
of/C
oatin
g im
prov
emen
t of
the
roof
is n
eces
sary
/Lar
ge a
rea
of ro
of
Ran
king
67
94
31
2To
tal o
f =
1605
kWTo
tal o
f top
6 =
480
kW
Mal
e'
P-1/2
Eva
luat
ion
of th
e po
tent
ial s
ites
in M
ale'
and
Hul
hum
ale'
Isla
nds
Isla
ndN
o.
Site
nam
e
Inst
alla
tion
loca
tion
Ava
ilabl
e ar
ea [m
2 ]
PV
cap
acity
[kW
p]A
nnua
lpo
wer
gen
erat
ion
[kW
h]
Sha
de c
ondi
tion
Rei
nfor
cem
ent o
fex
istin
g st
ruct
ure
Spa
ce fo
rP
ower
Con
ditio
ner
Cab
le ro
ute
Inte
rcon
nect
ion
feed
erTr
ansf
orm
er N
o.C
apac
ity [k
VA
]
Site
ow
ner
App
rova
l fro
m o
wne
r
O &
MS
afet
y
Pub
lic R
elat
ions
Impa
ct
Cos
t
Pho
to
Ove
rall
Com
men
ts
Ran
king
1112
1720
2122
2Fa
culty
of
Eng
inee
ring
Nat
iona
l Sta
dium
Facu
lty o
fE
duca
tion
Gra
nd F
riday
Mos
que
Jum
hoor
ee M
aidh
aan
Pre
side
nt's
Offi
ceH
ospi
tal
Bui
ldin
g ro
of,
Roo
ftop
Roo
fR
oofto
pR
oofto
pG
roun
dR
oofto
pB
uild
ing
roof
1,13
02,
970
982,
000
2,86
01,
158
1,13
0
8040
010
3060
~160
(dep
end
on th
ear
rang
emen
t of p
anel
s)20
60
96,7
5648
3,78
012
,094
36,2
8319
6,98
624
,189
72,5
67
OK
Sha
de fr
om s
urro
undi
ngbu
ildin
gs a
nd s
tand
ligh
tsm
ust b
e co
nsid
ered
.
Nee
d co
nfirm
atio
n of
the
cons
truct
ion
plan
for t
hene
w b
uild
ing
Sha
de fr
om to
wer
and
the
mos
que
top
OK
Sha
de o
n th
e w
est a
ndea
st s
ide
roof
sO
K
Nee
d ex
amin
atio
nN
eces
sary
Nee
d ex
amin
atio
nN
eed
exam
inat
ion
Unn
eces
sary
Nee
d ex
amin
atio
n
Eno
ugh
Eno
ugh
Eno
ugh
Eno
ugh
Nee
d to
find
a lo
catio
nN
eed
to fi
nd a
loca
tion
Eno
ugh
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
FD4
FD9
FD7
FD2
FD2
FD8
FD2
2541
B30
1414
7311
800
1000
630
630
630
1250
315
Min
istry
of E
duca
tion
Min
istry
of Y
outh
Min
istry
of E
duca
tion
Min
istry
of I
slam
ic A
ffairs
Mal
e' M
unic
ipal
ity o
rM
inis
try o
f Hom
eP
resi
dent
Offi
ceM
inis
try o
f Hea
lthA
ppro
val f
rom
man
yst
akeh
olde
rs in
clud
ing
publ
ic a
re re
quire
d.E
asy
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
Gen
eral
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
No
prob
lem
Mid
dle
Hig
hM
iddl
eH
igh
Hig
h bu
t pub
licco
nsul
tatio
n m
ay b
ene
cess
ary
Hig
hM
iddl
e
Stru
ctur
al re
info
rcem
ent
cost
is e
xpen
sive
/Sha
pe o
f roo
f is
com
plic
ated
ther
efor
e it
mig
ht n
eed
spec
ial
mou
ntin
g st
ruct
ure
/Lar
gest
pot
entia
l but
stru
ctur
al re
info
rcem
ent
cost
is e
xpen
sive
/Ava
ilabl
e ar
ea is
onl
y R
Cro
ofto
p/L
arge
are
a bu
t mos
t of
loca
tions
are
affe
cted
by
the
shad
ow fr
omsu
rrou
ndin
g st
ruct
ures
/Pub
licity
is q
uite
hig
h/D
iffic
ulty
in g
ettin
gap
prov
al fr
om a
llst
akeh
olde
rs
/Pub
licity
is h
igh
/Det
ail p
lan
ofco
nstru
ctio
n sc
hedu
le is
nece
ssar
y /C
oatin
gim
prov
emen
t of t
he ro
of is
nece
ssar
y
/Prio
rity
is lo
wer
than
Mal
e' Is
land
bec
ause
the
pow
er s
uppl
y is
eno
ugh
atpr
esen
t
812
1110
513
Hul
hum
ale'
Mal
e'
P-2/2
MA
LE
’M
ED
IUM
VO
LTA
GE
DIS
TR
IBU
TIO
NN
ET
WO
RK
50
15
05
10
00
kV
A
50
3
50A
1040m
Cu
185
sqm
m
42
14
25
50
0kV
A
42
3
42
180m
Cu
185
sqm
m
34
13
45
10
00
kV
A
34
3
34
154m
Al
240
sqm
m173m
Cu
70
sqm
m
14
71
41
63
0k
VA
14
5
14
14
3
50
15
05
10
00
kV
A
50
3
50B
5m
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185
sqm
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54
15
45
10
00
kV
A
54
3
54B
5.1
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sqm
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21
52
11
63
0kV
A
21
3
21
145m
Cu
185
sqm
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17
51
71
10
00
kV
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17
3
17B
138m
Cu
185
sqm
m
68
56
81
30
0kV
A
68
3
68
87m
Cu
70
sqm
m
11
5111
50
0kV
A
11
3
11
290m
Cu
70
sqm
m
73
17
35
12
50
kV
A
73
3
73
98m
Cu
70
sqm
m
490m
Cu
185
sqm
m
54
15
47
63
0k
VA
54
5
54A
54
3
FD
2
60
16
05
63
0kV
A
60
3
60
290m
Cu
185
sqm
m144m
Cu
185
sqm
m
13
11
35
10
00
kV
A
13
3
13B
275m
Cu
185
sqm
m
57
15
75
50
0kV
A
57
3
57A
10
mC
u70
sqm
m
511
51
5
10
00
kV
A
51
3
51
401
mC
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sqm
m
57
15
75
10
00
kV
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57
3
57B
10m
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185
sqm
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411
41
5
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00
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A
41
3
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188
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sqm
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63
0k
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7
13A
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sqm
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185
sqm
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33
13
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63
0kV
A
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3
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418m
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185
sqm
m
25
52
51
80
0kV
A
25
3
25
200m
Cu
70
sqm
m
31
53
11
50
0kV
A
31
3
31B
173m
Cu
70
sqm
m
36
13
65
10
00
kV
A
36
3
36
177m
Cu
185
sqm
m
35
13
55
63
0k
VA
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3
35
607m
Cu
70
sqm
m
64
16
45
75
0kV
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185
sqm
m
230m
Cu
70
sqm
m
311
31
7
31
5kV
A
31
5
31A
31
3
FD
4
27
12
75
10
00
kV
A
27
3
27A
364m
Cu
180
sqm
m
63
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35
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00
kV
A
63
3
63
402m
Cu
180
sqm
m
273m
Cu
70
sqm
m
39
53
91
30
0kV
A
39
3
39
90
59
01
75
0kV
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90
375m
Cu
70
sqm
m
47
54
71
63
0k
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47
3
47
217m
Cu
70
sqm
m
FD
55m
Cu
180
sqm
m
20
12
05
63
0kV
A
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3
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191m
Cu
185
sqm
m
40
14
05
63
0k
VA
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3
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21m
Cu
70
sqm
m
70
17
05
15
0kV
A
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3
70
286m
Cu
70
sqm
m
28
12
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00
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631
mC
u185
sqm
m
72
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63
0k
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3
72
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u70
sqm
m
26
12
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31
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108m
Cu
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sqm
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FD
6256m
Cu
185
sqm
m425m
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185
sqm
m29
12
97
63
0k
VA
29
5
29
29
3
30
13
05
63
0k
VA
30
3
30
682m
Cu
185
sqm
m
77
17
75
63
0k
VA
77
3
77
182m
Cu
185
sqm
m
66
16
65
63
0k
VA
66
3
66
303m
Cu
185
sqm
m
76
17
65
63
0k
VA
76
3
76
133m
Cu
185
sqm
m
299m
Cu
185
sqm
m
59
15
95
10
00
kV
A
59
3
59B
59
15
95
63
0kV
A
59
3
59A
6m
Cu
185
sqm
m
FD
7266m
Cu
185
sqm
m56
75
65
10
00
kV
A
56
3
56A
56
1
79
17
95
10
00
kV
A
79
3
79
404
mC
u185
sqm
m
16
11
65
63
0k
VA
16
3
16
158
mC
u70
sqm
m
84
18
45
63
0kV
A
84
3
84
181
mC
u185
sqm
m
22
12
25
63
0k
VA
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3
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321
mC
u185
sqm
m
10
11
05
10
00
kV
A
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310
mC
u70
sqm
m130
mC
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74
17
45
63
0k
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74
7
74
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3
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mC
u185
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m58
75
81
63
0kV
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5
58A
58
3
67
16
75
63
0kV
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67
3
67
160m
Cu
185
sqm
m
FD
8682m
Cu
185
sqm
m
48
14
85
63
0kV
A
48
3
48
53
15
35
10
00
kV
A
53
3
53
110m
Cu
70
sqm
m195m
Cu
185
sqm
m
52
75
25
10
00
kV
A
52
1
52
52
3
240m
Cu
185
sqm
m
85
12
35
25
0kV
A
85
3
85
85
3
25
0kV
A
315m
Cu
185
sqm
m38
73
85
10
00
kV
A
38
1
38
38
3
304
mC
u185
sqm
m
15
11
55
63
0k
VA
15
7
15
15
3
20
12
05
50
0kV
A
20
3
20B
192m
Cu
185
sqm
m
FD
91
21
12
5
63
0kV
A
12
3
12A
220m
Cu
185
sqm
m
65
16
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マレ島中圧(11kV)配電系統図
フル
マレ
島 中
圧(
11
kV
)配
電系
統図
1200
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10
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Dis
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Hulh
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i
CONTENTS
Location Map of the Project Sites Possible Locations for PV Installations Evaluation of the potential sites in Male’ and Hulhumale’ Islands Medium Voltage Ringmain Distribution System (Male’) Medium Voltage Distribution Network Diagram (Male’ and Hulhumale’) List of Figures and Tables Abbreviations Chapter 1 Background and Basic Concept of the Study 1.1 Background and Objectives of the Study................................................................................ 1-1 1.2 Basic Concept of the Study..................................................................................................... 1-2 Chapter 2 Socioeconomic Conditions and Development Plans 2.1 Socioeconomic Conditions ..................................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Development Plans ................................................................................................................. 2-4
2.2.1 National Development Plan..................................................................................... 2-4 2.2.2 Hulhumale’ Island Development Plans ................................................................... 2-6
2.3 Aid by Other Donors............................................................................................................... 2-7 Chapter 3 Current Energy and Electric Power Demand and Supply 3.1 Energy and Electric Power Policies and Legal Systems ......................................................... 3-1
3.1.1 Related Policy on the Energy and Electric Power Sector ........................................ 3-1 3.1.2 Legal Systems.......................................................................................................... 3-3
3.2 Organizations in the Energy and Electric Power Utility ......................................................... 3-6 3.2.1 Ministry of Housing, Transport and Environment (MHTE).................................... 3-6 3.2.2 Maldives Energy Authority (MEA)......................................................................... 3-7 3.2.3 State Electric Company Limited (STELCO) ........................................................ 3-8
3.2.4 Business Condition of the State Electric Company Limited (STELCO)................. 3-9 3.2.5 Restructuring of the Electric Power Sector ............................................................. 3-13
3.3 Energy and Electricity Demand and Supply Situation............................................................ 3-14 3.3.1 Energy Demand and Supply .................................................................................... 3-14 3.3.2 Power Supply and Demand ..................................................................................... 3-16 3.3.3 Electricity Tariffs and Fuel Prices ........................................................................... 3-21 3.3.4 Current Situation and Reinforcement Plan in Male’ Metropolitan Area
(Male’ Island and Huluhumale’ Island)................................................................... 3-24 3.3.5 Current Condition and Reinforcement Plans of Distribution Facilities
in Male’ Metropolitan Area (Male’ Island and Hulhumale’ Island)........................ 3-26
3.4 Dissemination of PV Generating Facilities............................................................................. 3-27 3.4.1 Introduction by the Government of the Maldives and Other Donors ...................... 3-27 3.4.2 Facilities Introduced under Japanese Support ......................................................... 3-30
Chapter 4 Technical Feasibility Study 4.1 Power Demand Projection.............................................................................................................4-1
4.1.1 Male’ Island ...................................................................................................................4-1 4.1.2 Hulhumale’ Island .........................................................................................................4-2
4.2 Collection and Analysis of Solar Radiation Data, etc. .................................................................4-4 4.3 Examination and Measurement concerning Solar Radiation Obstruction ...................................4-6 4.4 Selection of Potential Sites for Introducing the Grid-Connected PV System..............................4-13 4.5 Assessment of Load Responsiveness in the Diesel Generator .....................................................4-15 4.6 Examination and Measurement of Existing Distribution Transformer Capacity and
Distribution System .......................................................................................................................4-15 4.7 Grid-Connected PV System Stability Assessment Technique.....................................................4-24 4.8 Technique for Determining the Introduced Capacity of Grid-Connected PV Systems ..............4-29 4.9 Standard Design Specifications of the Grid-Connected PV System............................................4-33 4.10 Potential Sites for Grid-Connected PV System Installation, and PV Installation Capacity........4-35 4.11 Beneficial Effects of Grid-Connected PV System Introduction ..................................................4-39
4.11.1 Estimated Power Generation.........................................................................................4-39 4.11.2 Diesel Fuel Consumption Saving..................................................................................4-46 4.11.3 CO2 Emission Reductions.............................................................................................4-46
4.12 Examination of Solar Cells and Assessment of Output................................................................4-47 4.13 Expected Model of Grid-Connected PV System Introduction.....................................................4-49 4.14 Legal Systems (Building Law, etc.) concerning Existing Buildings ...........................................4-53 4.15 Structural Analysis of Buildings and Conceptual Design of Building Reinforcements..............4-53 4.16 Cost Estimation of Grid-Connected PV System Introduction......................................................4-55
4.16.1 Estimation Conditions ...................................................................................................4-55 4.16.2 Project Cost....................................................................................................................4-56
4.17 Examination of Environmental and Social Consideration ...........................................................4-56 4.17.1 Environmental and Social Consideration Systems in the Maldives.............................4-56 4.17.2 Agencies concerned with Environmental and Social Consideration ...........................4-58 4.17.3 Environmental and Social Consideration for Pilot Project Implementation................4-59
Chapter 5 Economic and Financial Feasibility Study 5.1 Methodology of Economic and Financial Analysis on Introduction
of the Grid-Connected PV System.......................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Setting of Preconditions .......................................................................................................... 5-2
ii
5.2.1 Conditions on PV System, Operation and Maintenance.......................................... 5-2 5.2.2 Price Forecast of the Grid-Connected PV System................................................... 5-7
5.3 Financial Analysis................................................................................................................... 5-10 5.3.1 Preconditions ........................................................................................................... 5-10 5.3.2 Results of Financial Analysis .................................................................................. 5-11 5.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................. 5-19
5.4 Economic Analysis ................................................................................................................. 5-22 5.4.1 Preconditions ........................................................................................................... 5-22 5.4.2 Results of Economic Analysis ................................................................................. 5-24 5.4.3 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................. 5-25 5.4.4 Examination of Profitability on Private Investment in the PV System ................. 5-27
5.5 Assessment of Impact on Investment Profitability of CDM Project Implementation ............ 5-29 5.5.1 Movements in the CER Trading Price..................................................................... 5-29 5.5.2 Project Formulation Cost......................................................................................... 5-31 5.5.3 Profit from CDM Project Formulation .................................................................... 5-33
5.6 Investment Financing Plan...................................................................................................... 5-35 5.7 Budget to be prepared for Execution of Each Measure .......................................................... 5-37 Chapter 6 Detailed Design of the Pilot Project 6.1 Examination and Selection of Pilot Project sites .................................................................... 6-1 6.2 Detailed Design Procedure for the Pilot Project Sites............................................................. 6-2 6.3 Detailed Design of Structure reinforcement ........................................................................... 6-3 6.4 Technical Transfer of the Detailed Design Technique............................................................ 6-6
6.4.1 Concept of the Technical Transfer for Detailed Design .......................................... 6-6 6.4.2 Contents of the Technical Transfer for Detailed Design ......................................... 6-6 6.4.3 Report of the Technical Transfer for Detailed Design ............................................ 6-6
6.5 Beneficial Effects of Grid-Connected PV System Introduction ............................................. 6-8 6.5.1 Estimated PV Power Generation ............................................................................. 6-8 6.5.2 Saving on Diesel Fuel Consumption ....................................................................... 6-11 6.5.3 CO2 Emission Reductions ....................................................................................... 6-11
Chapter 7 Examination of Value Added Measures 7.1 Examination and Recommendation of Measures for Education and Promotion of DSM
(Peak Power Limitation and Energy Saving, etc.) .................................................................. 7-1 7.1.1 Current Conditions of DSM in the Maldives........................................................... 7-1 7.1.2 DSM Techniques Appropriate to the Maldives ....................................................... 7-3 7.1.3 Legal systems .......................................................................................................... 7-15 7.1.4 Staging of Seminars................................................................................................. 7-17
iii
7.1.5 DSM Recommendations.......................................................................................... 7-17 7.2 Examination and Recommendation of CDM Project Implementation ................................... 7-19
7.2.1 CDM Activities in the Maldives.............................................................................. 7-19 7.2.2 Organizations and Institutional Preparations for Implementing CDM Projects ...... 7-22 7.2.3 Program CDM Application ..................................................................................... 7-26
7.3 Introduction of PV Power Generation to Resort Islands......................................................... 7-28 Chapter 8 Recommendations For Dissemination of the Grid-Connected PV System 8.1 Legal Systems concerning Dissemination of New Energies in the Maldives......................... 8-1 8.2 Dissemination Promotion Policies and Systems (Incentives) ................................................. 8-2
8.2.1 Outline of Dissemination Promotion Measures....................................................... 8-2 8.2.2 Examples of Policy Introduction in Advanced Countries ....................................... 8-5 8.2.3 Dissemination Promotion Policies (Draft) in the Maldives..................................... 8-8 8.2.4 Future issues for Examination regarding the Grid-connected PV system Dissemination
Promotion Policies and Systems.............................................................................. 8-15 8.3 Technical Criteria and Guidelines, etc. for Introduction of Grid-Connected PV Systems ..... 8-17 8.4 Medium to Long-Term Plans for Introducing Grid-Connected PV Systems.......................... 8-19 8.5 Action Plan for Introduction of Grid-Connected PV Systems................................................ 8-23 8.6 Human Resources Development Plan..................................................................................... 8-26
8.6.1 Capacity Assessment of Counterpart Agencies, etc. ............................................... 8-26 8.6.2 Direction of Human Resources Development ......................................................... 8-29 8.6.3 Human Resource Development Plan ....................................................................... 8-30 8.6.4 Collaboration with Faculty of Engineering Technology (FET)............................... 8-32
Attachments 1. Member List of the Study Team 2. List of Parties Concerned in the Recipient Country 3. Study Implementation Work Flow 4. Agenda for the 1st Seminar 5. Agenda for the 2nd Seminar 6. Design Manual for Grid-connected Photovoltaic System 7. Shade Map for each Project Site 8. Meteorological Data 9. Report on Field Survey of PV-Diesel Hybrid System in Mandhoo Island 10. Report on Field Survey of PV System in Gan and Fonadhoo Island in Laamu Atoll 11. Structure Examination Document
iv
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES
Chapter 2 Figure 2.2.2-1 Hulhumale’ Island Development Plan and Current Condition ........................ 2-7 Figure 2.3-1 Support Framework for Photovoltaic Power by ADB ..................................... 2-9 Table 2.1-1 Transitions in GDP .......................................................................................... 2-1 Table 2.1-2 Fiscal Balance of the Government of Maldives............................................... 2-2 Table 2.1-3 Population in the Study Target Area................................................................ 2-3 Table 2.1-4 Population Forecast in the Maldives and Urban Areas.................................... 2-3 Table 2.3-1 State of Progress in the Outer Islands Electrification Project (June 2009) ...... 2-8
Chapter 3 Figure 3.1.1-1 Main Points of National Energy Policy (revised version draft) ....................... 3-1 Figure 3.1.1-2 Breakdown of Primary Energy Supply in Maldives (Actual and Forecast)..... 3-2 Figure 3.1.1-3 Energy Resources Investment Plan up to 2015................................................ 3-3 Figure 3.1.2-1 Legal Systems related to Energy...................................................................... 3-3 Figure 3.1.2-2 Necessary Procedures and Times for Each Legal System ............................... 3-5 Figure 3.2.1-1 Organization Chart of the Ministry of Housing, Transport
and Environment (MHTE)............................................................................... 3-7 Figure 3.2.1-2 Organization Chart of the MHTE Energy & Sustainable Development Section
......................................................................................................................... 3-7 Figure 3.2.2-1 Organization Chart of Maldives Energy Authority (MEA) ............................. 3-8 Figure 3.2.3-1 Organization Chart of the State Electric Company Limited (STELCO) ......... 3-9 Figure 3.2.4-1 Unit Cost and Average Electricity Tariff ......................................................... 3-12 Figure 3.3.1-1 Breakdown of Primary Energy Supply in the Maldives (2002)....................... 3-14 Figure 3.3.1-2 Breakdown of Final Energy Consumption in Maldives (2002) ....................... 3-15 Figure 3.3.1-3 Breakdown of Final Energy Consumption
(Industrial and Commercial Sectors) in the Maldives (2002).......................... 3-15 Figure 3.3.1-4 Breakdown of Final Energy Consumption (Housing Sector)
in the Maldives (2002) ..................................................................................... 3-16 Figure 3.3.2-1 Breakdown of Generated Electric Energy ....................................................... 3-16 Figure 3.3.2-2 Generated Electric Energy in the STELCO Supply Area ................................ 3-17 Figure 3.3.2-3 Peak load in the STELCO Supply Area........................................................... 3-17 Figure 3.3.2-4 Daily Load Curve in Male’ .............................................................................. 3-18 Figure 3.3.2-5 Generated Electrical Energy on Male’ Island .................................................. 3-19 Figure 3.3.2-6 Peak Load on Male’ Island .............................................................................. 3-19 Figure 3.3.2-7 Power Consumption by Sector on Male’ Island (2008)................................... 3-19
v
Figure 3.3.2-8 Generated Electric Energy on Hulhumale’ Island ........................................... 3-20 Figure 3.3.2-9 Peak load on Hulhumale’ Island ...................................................................... 3-20 Figure 3.3.2-10 Power Consumption by Sector on Hulhumale’ Island..................................... 3-20 Figure 3.3.3-1 Movements in Diesel Prices............................................................................. 3-23 Figure 3.3.3-2 Projected Diesel Fuel Prices (2009~2030)..................................................... 3-23
Figure 3.3.4-1 Diesel generating facilities installed on the public road adjoining the STELCO power plant................................................................. 3-25
Figure 3.3.4-2 Site for installation of emergency power generating facilities......................... 3-26 Figure 3.4.1-1 PV System Introduced to Mandau Island ........................................................ 3-29 Figure 3.4.2-1 Schematic Diagram of Grid-Connected PV System Introduced
under Japan’s Non-Project Grant Aid.............................................................. 3-31 Figure 3.4.2-2 Operating Condition of the Grid-Connected PV System
Introduced under Non-Project Grant Aid......................................................... 3-32 Table 3.1.2-1 Outline of the Regulations on Public Supply of Electricity
in Male’ and Outer Atolls ................................................................................ 3-4 Table 3.2.4-1 Profit and Loss Statement of STELCO............................................................ 3-9 Table 3.2.4-2 Breakdown of Subsidies from the Government ............................................... 3-11 Table 3.2.4-3 STELCO Financial Performance Indicators .................................................... 3-11 Table 3.2.4-4 Power Sales Income and Costs and Mean Electricity Tariffs .......................... 3-12 Table 3.3.3-1 STELCO Electricity Tariffs (from July 2005 to October 2009) ................... 3-21 Table 3.3.3-2 Tariff Structure for Greater Male’ Region (from November 2009) .............. 3-21
Table 3.3.3-3 Number of Consumers by Category................................................................. 3-21 Table 3.3.3-4 Electricity Consumption and Average Tariffs on Male’ Island
and Hulhumale’ Island..................................................................................... 3-22 Table 3.3.4-1 Generating Facilities at Male’ Power Station (June 2009) .............................. 3-25 Table 3.3.4-2 Facilities at Hulhumale’ Power Station (as of June 2009)............................... 3-26 Table 3.3.5-1 Distribution Facility Reinforcement Plans....................................................... 3-27 Table 3.4.1-1 Hybrid Systems Introduced by the Government of the Maldives
and Other Donors............................................................................................. 3-28
Chapter 4 Figure 4.1.1-1 Power Demand Projection for Male’ Island (STELCO).................................. 4-1 Figure 4.1.1-2 Power Demand Projection for Male’ Island (Comparison with the Study
Team’s Projection)........................................................................................... 4-2 Figure 4.1.2-1 Estimated Power Demand on Hulhumale’ Island (STELCO) ......................... 4-3 Figure 4.1.2-2 Estimated Power Demand on Hulhumale’ Island (Study Team) ..................... 4-3 Figure 4.2-1 Hulhumale’ Island Solar irradiation Data Analysis Findings .......................... 4-4
vi
Figure 4.2-2 Pyranometer Accuracy Confirmation Findings (May 19, clear skies)............. 4-5 Figure 4.2-3 Pyranometer Accuracy Confirmation Findings (May 24, rain) ....................... 4-5 Figure 4.2-4 Horizontal Plane Solar irradiation Data Applied in the Study......................... 4-6 Figure 4.3-1 OJT on the Solar Irradiation Obstruction Measurement Method..................... 4-9 Figure 4.3-2 Hourly Changes in Solar irradiation Intensity ................................................. 4-10 Figure 4.6-1 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 2).................................. 4-18 Figure 4.6-2 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 3).................................. 4-18 Figure 4.6-3 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 4).................................. 4-19 Figure 4.6-4 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 6).................................. 4-19 Figure 4.6-5 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 7).................................. 4-20 Figure 4.6-6 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 8).................................. 4-20 Figure 4.6-7 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Male’ Island, Feeder 9).................................. 4-21 Figure 4.6-8 Calculation Results of Distribution Line Voltage Flow Simulation at Time
of PV System Interconnection (Hulhumale’ Island, Feeder 2) ........................ 4-21 Figure 4.7-1 IEC Flicker Measurement Results (Pst, Plt)[Measurement Point:
National Stadium on the Distribution Tr Low Voltage Side] .......................... 4-25 Figure 4.7-2 Results of High Frequency Voltage Distortion Measurement
[Measurement Point: National Stadium on the Distribution Tr Low Voltage Side] ................................................................................................................. 4-26
Figure 4.7-3 Results of Frequency Fluctuation Measurement [Measurement Point: National Stadium on the Distribution Tr Low Voltage Side] .......................... 4-27
Figure 4.7-4 Voltage Fluctuation Measurement Results [Measurement Point: National Stadium on the Distribution Tr Low Voltage Side] ......................................... 4-28
Figure 4.8-1 Possible PV Capacity on Male' Island ............................................................. 4-30 Figure 4.8-2 Possible PV Capacity on Hulhumale' Island.................................................... 4-30 Figure 4.8-3 Relationship between Allowable Frequency Fluctuation
and Possible PV Capacity on Male' Island....................................................... 4-31 Figure 4.8-4 Relationship between Allowable Frequency Fluctuation
and Possible PV Capacity on Hulhumale' Island ............................................. 4-31 Figure 4.11.1-1 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (STELCO Building).......................... 4-40 Figure 4.11.1-2 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Dharubaaruge) ................................. 4-41
vii
Figure 4.11.1-3 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Giyaasudheen School) ..................... 4-41 Figure 4.11.1-4 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Kalaafaanu School).......................... 4-41 Figure 4.11.1-5 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Maldives Center for
Social Education) ............................................................................................. 4-42 Figure 4.11.1-6 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Thaajuddeen School) ....................... 4-42 Figure 4.11.1-7 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (New Secondary School for Girls) .... 4-42 Figure 4.11.1-8 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Faculty of Engineering) ................... 4-43 Figure 4.11.1-9 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (National Stadium)............................ 4-43 Figure 4.11.1-10 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Faculty of Education) ...................... 4-43 Figure 4.11.1-11 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Grand Friday Mosque)..................... 4-44 Figure 4.11.1-12 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Jumhooree Maidhaan) ..................... 4-44 Figure 4.11.1-13 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (President’s Office) ........................... 4-44 Figure 4.11.1-14 Monthly Power Generation Estimation (Hulhumale’ Hospital) ...................... 4-45 Figure 4.11.1-15 Movements in Power Generation by Year ....................................................... 4-45 Figure 4.12-1 Category of PV Cells by material .................................................................... 4-47 Figure 4.12-2 Trend of PV introduction capacity in the world .............................................. 4-49 Figure 4.13-1 Image for metering of grid-connected PV system (STELCO’s installation) ... 4-51 Figure 4.13-2 Image for metering of grid-connected PV system (except for STELCO’s installation) ................................................................. 4-52 Figure 4.17.1-1 Environmental Impact Assessment (or Initial Environmental Examination)
Review Process ................................................................................................ 4-58 Figure 4.17.3-1 Expected Storage Battery Recycling System................................................... 4-61 Table 4.2-1 Specifications of the Pyranometer and Data Logger Used for Comparison .... 4-5 Table 4.3-1 Measurement Results concerning Solar irradiation Obstruction ..................... 4-7 Table 4.3-2 Solar Irradiation in January on Male’ Island ................................................... 4-11 Table 4.3-3 Estimated Solar Irradiation on each Potential Site........................................... 4-12 Table 4.4-1 List of Selected Potential Sites ........................................................................ 4-14 Table 4.6-1 Survey Findings Regarding Capacity of Transformers at Interconnection
Points ............................................................................................................... 4-16 Table 4.6-2 Simulation Condition ....................................................................................... 4-17 Table 4.6-3 Impacts of PV Interconnection on Existing Distribution Lines ....................... 4-22 Table 4.7-1 Specifications of Measuring Instruments......................................................... 4-24 Table 4.8-1 Examination Results regarding PV Connection Capacity to Distribution
Lines (Male’ Island)......................................................................................... 4-32 Table 4.8-2 Examination Results regarding PV Connection Capacity to Distribution
Lines (Hulhumale’ Island) ............................................................................... 4-32
viii
Table 4.8-3 Target Grid-Connected PV Installation Capacity on Male’ Island and Hulhumale’ Island............................................................................................ 4-33
Table 4.9-1 Standard Design Specifications of the Grid-Connected PV System................ 4-33 Table 4.10-1 Results of PV Array Examination at Potential Sites on Male’ Island.............. 4-36 Table 4.10-2 Results of PV Array Examination at Potential Sites on Hulhumale’ Island .... 4-38 Table 4.11.1-1 Estimated Annual Power Generation at Each Potential Site............................ 4-40 Table 4.11.2-1 Fuel Consumption at Diesel Power Plants on Male’ Island and Hulhumale’
Island................................................................................................................ 4-46 Table 4.11.2-2 Yearly Diesel Fuel Saving ............................................................................... 4-46 Table 4.11.3-1 Yearly CO2 Reductions ................................................................................... 4-47 Table 4.12-1 Type of PV Cells and Characteristice .............................................................. 4-48 Table 4.13-1 Expected Model of Grid-Connected PV System Introduction
in the Pilot Project and Period until 2014 ........................................................ 4-50 Table 4.13-2 Expected Model of Grid-Connected PV System Introduction
in the Period from 2015 to 2020 ...................................................................... 4-50 Table 4.13-3 Metering method for grid-connected PV system ............................................. 4-51 Table 4.14-1 Assumed Loads when Installing PV Panels..................................................... 4-53 Table 4.15-1 Contents and Results of Examination on PV Panel Supports .......................... 4-54 Table 4.16.1-1 Rough Project Cost Estimation Conditions ..................................................... 4-55 Table 4.16.2-1 Breakdown for Project cost (Japanese supply) ................................................ 4-56 Table 4.16.2-2 Grid-Connected PV System Installed Capacity and Project Cost.................... 4-56 Table 4.17.3-1 Pilot Project Screening..................................................................................... 4-59
Chapter 5 Figure 5.1-1 Flow of Economic and Financial Analysis ...................................................... 5-1 Figure 5.2.2-1 Movements in Total Cost of Grid-Connected PV Systems ............................. 5-7 Figure 5.2.2-2 Movements in Grid-Connected PV System Sub-System Costs ....................... 5-7 Figure 5.2.2-3 Scenario of PV System Economy Improvement in the Roadmap ................... 5-8 Figure 5.5.1-1 Quantities and Prices of CER Futures Trading on the ECX
(March 2008-May 2009).................................................................................. 5-30 Table 5.2.1-1 Power Generation, Consumption and Fuel Oil Consumption (2009-2020)..... 5-4 Table 5.2.1-2 Introduced Capacity and Generation by Implementing Body (2009 – 2020) .. 5-6 Table 5.2.2-1 PV System Price Projection ............................................................................. 5-9 Table 5.2.2-2 Introduced Capacity and Project Cost.............................................................. 5-9 Table 5.3.2-1 Cashflow of Introduction the Grid-Connected PV System.............................. 5-12 Table 5.3.2-2 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure of the Central Government .......................... 5-15 Table 5.3.2-3 Financial Assistance Necessary for Initial Investment and STELCO’s Cost .. 5-15
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Table 5.3.2-4 Cashflow for Introduction of the Grid-Connected PV System with Capacity 3MW......................................................................................................................... 5-17
Table 5.3.2-5 Amount of Financial Assistance by Contribution Rate from the Green Tax ... 5-19 Table 5.3.2-6 Amount per kWh for the Case that the Shortfall is divided evenly to the
Customers ........................................................................................................ 5-19 Table 5.3.3-1 Results of the Cases of Rise in Decreasing Rate of the PV System Price ....... 5-20 Table 5.3.3-2 Results of the Cases of Initial Unit Price Decrease in PV System ................. 5-20 Table 5.3.3-3 Results of the Cases of Increase in O&M Cost................................................ 5-20 Table 5.3.3-4 Results of the Cases of Increase in Electricity Tariff....................................... 5-21 Table 5.3.3-5 Results of the Cases of Increase/Decrease in Fuel Price.................................. 5-21 Table 5.3.3-6 Results of Analysis by Percentage of Excess Power and Purchasing Price..... 5-22 Table 5.4.1-1 Comparison of Cost between Private Power Generation and Power Purchasing
from STELCO.................................................................................................. 5-23 Table 5.4.2-1 Results of Economic Analysis for the Capacity of 3MW................................ 5-24 Table 5.4.3-1 Results of the Cases of Rise in Decreasing Rate of the PV System Price ....... 5-25 Table 5.4.3-2 R Results of the Cases of Initial Unit Price Decrease in PV System ............. 5-26 Table 5.4.3-3 Results of the Cases of Increase in O&M Cost................................................ 5-26 Table 5.4.3-4 Results of the Cases of Increase in Electricity Tariff....................................... 5-26 Table 5.4.3-5 Results of the Cases of Increase/Decrease in Fuel Price.................................. 5-27 Table 5.4.3-6 Results of Analysis by Percentage of Excess Power and Purchasing Price..... 5-27 Table 5.4.4-1 Results of Investment Profitability of Private Investment in the PV System .. 5-28 Table 5.5.1-1 Major Factors Affecting the Price of Emission Credits ................................... 5-30 Table 5.5.1-2 CO2 Reductions and CER Sales ...................................................................... 5-31 Table 5.5.2-1 Transaction Costs of CDM Project Formulation ............................................. 5-32 Table 5.5.2-2 Transaction Costs in Small-Scale CDM Project Formulation ......................... 5-32 Table 5.5.2-3 Costs in the Operational Stage (Until 2020) .................................................... 5-33 Table 5.5.3-1 Profit from CDM Project Formulation............................................................. 5-34 Table 5.6-1 Investment Financing Plan for Installation of PV System with Capacity of 3MW
......................................................................................................................... 5-36 Table 5.6-2 Financial Projection of STELCO..................................................................... 5-37 Table 5.7-1 Contribution Ration from Green Tax and Shortfall ......................................... 5-38
Chapter 6 Figure 6.1-1 Map of the Pilot Project Sites .......................................................................... 6-2 Figure 6.2-1 Detailed Design Procedure of the Pilot project................................................ 6-2 Figure 6.3-1 Working Flowchart which affects details design............................................. 6-4 Figure 6.5.1-1 Estimated Monthly PV Power Generation (STELCO Building) ..................... 6-9 Figure 6.5.1-2 Estimated Monthly PV Power Generation (Kalaafaanu School) ..................... 6-9
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Figure 6.5.1-3 Estimated Monthly PV Power Generation (Maldives Center for Social Education)........................................................... 6-10
Figure 6.5.1-4 Estimated Monthly PV Power Generation (Thaajuddeen School) .................. 6-10 Figure 6.5.1-5 Estimated Monthly Power Generation (New Secondary School for Girls) ..... 6-10 Figure 6.5.1-6 Estimated Monthly PV Power Generation (President’s Office) ...................... 6-11 Table 6.1-1 Selection Criteria of Pilot Project Sites............................................................ 6-1 Table 6.1-2 Pilot Project Sites........................................................................................... 6-1 Table 6.3-1 Detail examination result for Building in the Pilot Project Sites ................... 6-5 Table 6.5.1-1 Annual PV Power Generation at Each Pilot Project Site ............................... 6-9
Chapter 7 Figure 7.1.1-1 Results of Power Consumption Survey in 27 Households and Commercial and
Public Facilities in the SMILE Project ............................................................ 7-2 Figure 7.1.1-2 DSM Education Poster..................................................................................... 7-2 Figure 7.1.2-1 Step for inserting HP........................................................................................ 7-5 Figure 7.1.2-2 Example of Shikoku Electric Power Company................................................ 7-8 Figure 7.1.2-3 Record of shifting peak load in Japan by introducting the thermal storage AC
system .............................................................................................................. 7-11 Figure 7.1.2-4 Daily load curve in the Bank of Maldives ....................................................... 7-12 Figure 7.1.5-1 Proposal schedule in the view point of the medium & long term.................... 7-19 Figure 7.2.1-1 Breakdown of CO2 Emissions in the Energy Sector ....................................... 7-20 Figure 7.2.2-1 CDM Project Application and Approval Process (Draft) ................................ 7-26 Figure 7.2.3-1 Image of Program CDM .................................................................................. 7-27 Table 7.1.2-1 Purpose of DSM Techniques ........................................................................... 7-3 Table 7.1.2-2 Examples of Concrete DSM Techniques (Supply Side and Demand Side)
Appropriate to Maldives .................................................................................. 7-4 Table 7.1.2-3 The items to be considered regarding introduction of Time of using of Electricity
......................................................................................................................... 7-8 Table 7.1.3-1 The main elements for the designated factories in the Japanese Energy
Conservation Act ............................................................................................. 7-16 Table 7.1.3-2 The main elements for the construction in the Japanese Energy Conservation Act
......................................................................................................................... 7-17 Table 7.2.1-1 CDM Potential Projects ................................................................................... 7-20 Table 7.2.1-2 Policies, Systems and Surrounding Conditions Concerning CDM Promotion 7-21 Table 7.2.2-1 Sustainable Development Criteria (SD Criteria) (Draft) ................................. 7-23 Table 7.2.2-2 CDM Project Application Document Format (Draft) ...................................... 7-24
Chapter 8
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Figure 8.2.1-1 Combining Policies for Disseminating Renewable Energies........................... 8-3 Figure 8.2.1-2 Outline of Japan’s Surplus Power Purchasing System .................................... 8-4 Figure 8.2.2-1 RPS Systems Introduced in the United States ................................................. 8-8 Figure 8.2.3-1 Examination Procedure for Measures Geared to Supporting Introduction
of Grid-Connected PV Systems ....................................................................... 8-10 Figure 8.2.3-2 Conceptual Image of Dissemination Measures................................................ 8-14 Figure 8.2.3-3 Introduction amount of Grid-connected PV system......................................... 8-14 Figure 8.4-1 Roadmap (Draft) Geared to Dissemination of Grid-Connected PV Systems .. 8-19 Figure 8.6.4-1 Equipment for Practical Training at Faculty of Engineering Technology(FET)
......................................................................................................................... 8-33 Table 8.1-1 Japanese Laws concerning New Energies ....................................................... 8-1 Table 8.1-2 Necessary Items of the Japanese New Energy Law
when Applying to the Maldives ....................................................................... 8-1 Table 8.2.3-1 Necessary amount of price in Green Tax. Development Tax and Carbon Tax after
import Tax Exemption in Measure D .............................................................. 8-13 Table 8.2.3-2 Projection From of Policies and Systems for Introducing and Disseminating
Grid-Connected PV Systems in Measure D..................................................... 8-15 Table 8.2.4-1 Future Examination Issues regarding Dissemination Polocoes and Systems .. 8-16 Table 8.3-1 Technical Requirements of Grid-Connection Guidelines and Results of
Examination of Application to the Maldives ................................................... 8-18 Table 8.5-1 Action Plans for Dissemination of Grid-Connected PV Systems.................... 8-25 Table 8.6.1-1 Off-JT by STELCO (Fiscal 2008) ................................................................... 8-28 Table 8.6.2-1 Direction of Human Resources Development (Draft) ..................................... 8-30 Table 8.6.3-1 Contents of Technical Transfer Implemented in the Study
(including Counterpart Training) ..................................................................... 8-31 Table 8.6.3-3 Contents of Technical Transfer Required in Future......................................... 8-32 Table 8.6.4-1 Outline Topic for the “Renewable Energy Systems and Maintenance”(Draft) 8-33
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ABBREVIATIONS
ADB Asian Development Bank
CER Certified Emission Reduction
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
DANIDA Danish International Development Cooperation Agency
DNA Designated National Authority
DRP Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party
DSM Demand Side Management
ECX European Climate Exchange
US EIA Energy Information Administration
EIA Environmental Impact Assessment
EIRR Economic Internal Rate of Return
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
EUA EU-Allowance
FIRR Financial Internal Rate of Return
FIP Feed-in Premium
FIT Feed-in Tariff
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GEF Global Environment Facility
GHG Green House Gas
HDC Hulhumale’ Development Corporation LTD
IEC International Electrotechnical Commission
IEA International Energy Agency
IEE Initial Environmental Examination
JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency
JIS Japanese Industrial Standards
MATI Maldives Association of Tourism Industry
MCPI Ministry of Construction and Public Infrastructure
MCST Ministry of Communications, Science and Technology
MDP Maldivian Democratic Party
MEA Maldives Energy Authority
MEB Maldives Electricity Bureau
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MEEW Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water
MHTE Ministry of Housing, Transportation and Environment
MMA Maldivian Monetary Authority
MTAC Ministry of Tourism, Arts and Culture
NEDO New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization
NPC National Planning Council
Off-JT Off the Job Training
O&M Operation and Maintenance
OJT On the Job Training
PLC Programmable Logic Controller
PPP Public Private Partnership
PV Photovoltaic
RETDAP Renewable Energy Technology Development and Application Project
RPS Renewables Portfolio Standard
SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition System
SHS Solar Home System
SSM Supply Side Management
STELCO State Electric Company Limited
STO State Trading Organization
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
CHAPTER 1 BACKGROUND AND BASIC CONCEPT OF THE STUDY
1.1 Background and Objectives of the Study
The Republic of Maldives (hereinafter referred to as Maldives) is an island nation situated southwest of India and Sri Lanka. It is composed of approximately 1,190 coral islands, of which 199 are inhabited. The national population is approximately 299,000 (2006 national census), of which 104,000 people or approximately 35% of the total population, live on Male’ Island. Male’ is home to the national capital functions and the most employment opportunities, however, problems of declining security and deteriorating living environment caused by this population concentration have become social problems on the island. The tourism industry of the Maldives was badly affected in the wake of the September 11-terrorist attacks in the United States, although the economy has displayed steady recovery since then. However, the Indian Ocean tsunami disaster of December 2004 caused 82 fatalities, 26 persons missing, destruction of around 2,000 homes and other massive damage especially in outer islands with little or no seawalls and other infrastructure. The financial cost of the tsunami damage amounted to approximately 62% of GDP and caused the GDP growth rate to plunge to minus 4.6% in 2005. Since then, however, the tourism and fisheries industries, which account for approximately 40% of GDP, have recovered and GDP growth rate of 19.1% and 6.6% was recorded in 2006 and 2007 respectively. As a result, there has been a construction boom in Male’ and with more and more people who suffered damage on outer islands moving to Male’ in search of employment and safer living conditions, which accelerated more population concentration.
Power supply on the 10 islands which including capital Male’ is carried out by STELCO, which is 100% government financed electric utility, and power generation on Male’ accounts for approximately 72% of generated power in inhabited islands (185,553 MWh) in 2006. Power demand in Male’ is expected to grow rapidly at more than 11% per year, and it is forecasted that peak demand over the next five to seven years will reach more than double the capacity of generation facilities. Accordingly, STELCO is planning to procure new diesel generators, however, due to limited space any further expansion of power stations in Male’ will be difficult. Moreover, with more than 80% of primary energy demand and almost all power generation depend on diesel fuel, the recent inflation in the price of diesel (22% in 2007) has badly affected the financial condition of STELCO and threatens the energy security of the country.
In response to these issues, the Government of Maldives (GOM) has reclaimed land (Hulhumale’ Island: total area 7.85 square kilometers) off the coast of Male’, and it is implementing a comprehensive development plan that includes the resettlement of residents in Male’. According to the plan, residential and commercial districts as well as cultural and education districts will be
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constructed. In addition, tourism districts will be built by introducing foreign capital. Thus it is forecasted that the power demand in Hulhumale’ will grow rapidly from now on.
Furthermore, since Maldives is an island nation with an average altitude of just 1 m above sea level, it is one of the countries most prone to the effects of rising sea level caused by climate change. For this reason, in the Manifesto 2008~2013 and Strategic Action Plan, the current government aims to achieve the carbon neutral within 10 years time. GOM aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from diesel power station and to ensure energy security.
Under these circumstances, GOM issued a request to Government of Japan for implementation of a development study for the introduction of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) system, as a way to improve energy efficiency and mitigate climate change for the purpose of realizing stable power supply in the medium to long term.
The objectives of the Study are as follows: (1) To conduct technical and economic/financial feasibility study (F/S) and confirm the conditions required in order to introduce the grid-connected PV system in Male’ and Hulhumale’ Islands; and (2) To examine the required legislation, systems, regulations and human resources development plan, etc. and finalize long-term plan and action plan for the introduction and proper operation of the grid-connected PV system. At the same time, detailed design for the introduction of grid-connected PV system will be conducted on five or six potential sites, with a view to building the capacity of the organizations primarily responsible for introducing the system.
1.2 Basic Concept of the Study
(1) In the Study, it is necessary to select potential sites for the grid-connected PV system and to complete detailed design for potential sites during a short period. Accordingly, the Study Team has already commenced the preliminary planning and design of PV systems based on available data. Detailed design will be commenced immediately after potential sites are finalized in the joint work with the counterparts.
(2) As a result of the final round of voting in the presidential election held in October 2008, President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who had held office for the previous 30 years, was defeated, and Mohamed Nasheed, the leader of the opposition Democratic Party of the Maldives, became the new president. In line with this, the Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water (MEEW), which was expected to be the counterpart Ministry, was reorganized and combined with the Ministry of Construction and Public Infrastructure (MCPI), Ministry of Environment, Energy and Water (MEEW), Ministry of Transport and Communication (MTC) and Ministry of Housing and Urban Development (MHUD) to make the new Ministry of Housing, Transport and Environment
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(MHTE). Accordingly, in the first field survey, full explanations will be given to the counterpart agency concerning background of the Study, the Study concept, methodology and schedule, etc. in order to facilitate the smooth introduction of the Study.
(3) On the densely populated island of Male’, where buildings are already crowded, potential sites for the grid-connected PV system will be selected from the wide variety of candidate sites such as buildings, public facilities, stadium, pedestrian walks and bus stops while taking the impact on existing 11 kV distribution grid into account. Meanwhile, on Hulhumale’ Island, potential sites will be selected utilizing vacant spaces on the roof of public and commercial facilities which are under planning phase, in consideration of economic advantage and operation after commissioning.
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CHAPTER 2 SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS
2.1 Socio-economic Conditions
In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean tsunami disaster in December 2004, tourism, which is the primary industry of the Maldives, was depressed and the economy recorded negative growth. From 2006 onwards, however, tourism recovered from a recession and the economy return to positive growth due to growth of secondary industries and tertiary industries excluding tourism (see Table 2.1-1). In the years up to 2004, fisheries and tourism in outlying resort islands formed the backbone of the economy, accounting for approximately 40% of real GDP, however, this ratio fell to 30% from 2005 onwards. Tertiary industries including tourism have constantly accounted for around 80% of GDP, while the share of primary industries fell from 12.2% in 1995 (when it was almost equivalent to the share of secondary industries) to 7% in 2008. In contrast, the share of secondary industries increased from 12.8% to 17.6% over the same period. This trend shows that the industrial structure has shifted. Looking at performance by sector, tourism has remained the key industry over this period, while the secondary sectors of electric power, public water supply and construction, and tertiary sectors of transport, communications and government services have made remarkable growth.
Table 2.1-1 Transitions in GDP
Unit: Million MRf 1995 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Primary sector 521 595 760 850 846 719 761
Agriculture 155 175 205 204 204 205 207Fisheries 335 381 507 596 590 460 499Coral and sand mining 31 39 48 50 52 54 55
Secondary sector 659 1,047 1,539 1,621 1,891 2,071 2,215Manufacturing 336 505 660 594 680 706 730Fisheries processing 112 132 204 247 299 300 300Electricity and water supply 78 204 313 363 409 447 486Construction 133 206 362 417 503 618 699
Tertiary sector 3,205 4,836 6,217 5,703 6,917 7,574 8,226Wholesaling and retail trade 234 288 326 336 357 386 412Tourism (resorts, etc.) 1,474 2,094 2,689 1,798 2,560 2,800 2,991Transport and communications 478 919 1,263 1,456 1,729 1,893 1,993Financial services 151 215 269 262 287 300 310Real estate 390 497 571 575 595 611 628Business services 129 184 223 222 233 239 245Government administration 400 751 1,062 1,213 1,380 1,592 1,917Education, health and social services 124 137 146 149 152 155 157
Financial services indirectly measured (FISIM) -175 -249 -332 -308 -376 -402 -427
Total 4,385 6,478 8,516 8,174 9,654 10,364 11,202Source : Statistical Yearbook of Maldives 2008 Note: Figures are 1995-base prices and estimate values for 2008.
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The international balance of payments shows a current account deficit, arising from excess imports over exports, is offset by foreign currency revenues derived from tourism. The current account deficit has increased steadily since 2005. The exchange rate has been pegged to the U.S. dollar at a rate of 12.80 MRf to the dollar since 2002.
Table 2.1-2 shows the fiscal balance of the Maldives government. Tax revenues declined in 2005 due to the impact of the Indian Ocean tsunami disaster on the tourism industry, however, they have recorded major increases again from 2006 onwards. Concerning revenue, non-tax revenue has recorded faster growth than tax revenue, and this is largely derived from rental of government assets (including rental of government-owned resorts). Expenditure is increasing every year as revenue increases; in particular, the increase in current expenditure from 2005 onwards has been conspicuous, and the fiscal deficit is growing year by year. Looking at expenditure by sector, spending on social services such as social security and community programs, etc. accounted for a major share in 2007, however, spending on economic services such as agriculture, fisheries, transport and electric power almost doubled in 2008.
The public sector comprises the government and state-owned enterprises and has traditionally played an important role in the economy. The state-owned enterprises have been active in numerous sectors such as banking, aviation, marine transport, international freight, telecommunications, electric power, fishing ports and importing, however, in recent years there has been a growing trend of privatization and shrinking of services supplied by the state-owned enterprises.
Table 2.1-2 Fiscal Balance of the Government of the Maldives
Unit: Million MRf (Maldives rufiyaa) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Revenue and donations Tax revenue 1,091.7 1,268.7 1,647.2 1,722.8 2,370.3 2,855.5 3,291.5Nontax revenue 1,490.7 1,695.6 1,704.6 2,065.5 2,916.3 3,813.9 5,653.0Grants 132.5 123.6 72.9 824.6 867.4 1,183.2 812.5
Total revenue 2,714.9 3,087.9 3,424.7 4,612.9 6,154.0 7,852.6 9,757.0Expenditure and net lending
Current expenditure 2,109.4 2,345.7 2,788.1 4,643.3 5,607.8 7,083.7 8,755.7Capital expenditure 1,026.1 1,206.2 991.0 1,132.1 1,458.4 1,952.6 2,760.7Net lending -18.2 -163.7 -196.5 -117.8 -118.1 -122.0 -194.8
Total expenditure 3,117.3 3,388.2 3,582.6 5,657.6 6,948.1 8,914.3 11,321.6Balance -402.4 -300.3 -157.9 -1,044.7 -794.1 -1,061.7 -1,564.6
GDP per capita(US$) 1,482 1,986 2,439 2,293 2,649 2,804 2,992GDP growth rate (%) - 4.8 9.5 -4.6 18.0 7.6 8.3
Source : Statistical Yearbook of Maldives 2007 and 2008 Note : Figures for 2007 are provisional values, while those for 2008 are budget estimate values.
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Table 2.1-3 shows the population of Male’ Island and Hulhumale’ Island according to the census of 2006. Compared with the findings of the 2000 census, the population of Male’ Island grew by 5.8% per year, far faster than the national average of 1.7% per year, highlighting the trend of population concentration into Male’s Island. Furthermore, when foreign workers and residents registered outside of Male’s Island are also taken into account, the island population is approximately two times greater than the number of residents registered in Male’.
Table 2.1-3 Population in the Study Area
2000 2006 Growth Rate Registered residents in 2005Male’ Island 72,230 102,377 5.8 46,647Hulhumale’ Island - 2,866 NA 189National 270,101 298,968 1.7 302,726
Source : Statistical Yearbook of Maldives 2007 and 2008
According to Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the Un