Fayetteville-Cumberland:Fayetteville-Cumberland:Pathways to PossibilitiesPathways to Possibilities

ProjectProjectPreliminary Economic Base Analysis

Project Steering Committee MeetingMay 30, 2008

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Preliminary Economic Base Analysis

• Demographics• Education• Government: Taxes & Spending• Workforce & Employment• Industry Analysis• Economic Base & Industry Cluster Analysis

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Population & DemographicsCumberland

• 2007 Population: 313,600 (estimate)• Fifth most populous county in North Carolina• Growth rate 2000-2007: 4% (13% for state)• Racial Diversity 2006:

• 54% White, Non-Hispanic origin• 36% Black or African-American• 5% Hispanic• 2% Asian• 1% Native American

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Population MunicipalitiesGeographic Are a April July Growth

Cnty Municipal i ty 2000 2006 Amount %

Cumberland 302,962 306,545 3,583 1.18

Falcon (Part ) 3 4 3 3 2 5 - 1 8 -5.25

Fayetteville 121,015 173,898 52,883 43.70

Godwin 1 1 2 1 1 8 6 5.36

Hope Mills 11,237 12,536 1,299 11.56

Linden 1 2 7 1 4 0 1 3 10.24

Spring Lake 8,098 8,227 1 2 9 1.59

Stedma n 6 6 4 6 8 1 1 7 2.56

Wade 5 1 0 5 4 0 3 0 5.88

Without annexation Fayetteville’spopulation would have fallen by 2,800

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NC Metro County Population Growth 2000-2007

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Regional County Population Growth 2000-2007

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Migration 2000-2006

• Cumberland is one of 27 counties in North Carolinaexperiencing net out-migration

• Most of the other out-migration counties are rural• Nearly 20,000 more people left Cumberland than

arrived• Troop deployments explain some but not all out-

migration for Cumberland• Hoke and Harnett are top out-migration areas

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Out-Migration 2000-2006

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Population Projections 2007-2012

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Educational Achievement, 2006(for those 25 and older)

• % with High School Diploma: 88%• % with Some College: 57%• % with Associate’s Degree: 11%• % with Bachelor’s Degree: 15%• % with Graduate/Professional Degree: 7%

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College Degree, 2006Metro Comparison

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Bachelor’s Degree, 2006Metro Comparison

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Government: Taxes & Spending

• Cumberland– 7th highest property tax rate in state ($0.7568)– Property taxes 41% of budget– Human services & education account for 60%

• Fayetteville– Electricity utility revenues are largest revenue

source, 42%– Debt service is largest expenditure, 30%– Others: public safety (17%), water/sewer

(14%), transportation (7%)

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Labor Force

• Total labor force of 128,000• Unemployment for 2007 was 5.3% (NC 4.7%)• High labor force participation, 67%• Commuting

– 88% drive to work– Only 0.7% take public transit compared to 2.8% who

walk to work– More in-commuters than out-commuters

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Residence of Cumberland Workforce

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Largest Industries, 2007

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Largest Industries, 2007

Description 2002 Jobs 2007 Jobs Change %

Change 2007 EPW

Government 75,507 82,355 6,848 9% $79,004 Retail trade 17,898 18,665 767 4% $25,353 Accommodation and food services 10,946 12,471 1,525 14% $13,725 Manufacturing 10,704 7,790 -2,914 -27% $65,914 Health care and social assistance 10,197 13,981 3,784 37% $32,833 Administrative and waste services 8,500 10,514 2,014 24% $24,738 Construction 8,044 9,780 1,736 22% $41,835 Other services, except public administration

7,712 9,302 1,590 21% $19,659

Transportation and warehousing 5,915 6,256 341 6% $46,606 Professional and technical services 4,612 6,473 1,861 40% $46,477 Real estate and rental and leasing 3,873 5,701 1,828 47% $32,597 Finance and insurance 3,712 3,857 145 4% $39,370 Wholesale trade 3,015 3,074 59 2% $44,505 Information 2,378 2,548 170 7% $45,325 Educational services 1,845 2,266 421 23% $24,300

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Highest Paying Industries, 2007

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Highest Paying Industries, 2007

Description 2002 Jobs 2007 Jobs Change % Change 2007 EPW Government 75,507 82,355 6,848 9% $79,004 Manufacturing 10,704 7,790 -2,914 -27% $65,914 Utilities 315 395 80 25% $52,441 Management of companies and enterprises

356 316 - 40 -11% $51,693

Transportation and warehousing 5,915 6,256 341 6% $46,606 Professional and technical services 4,612 6,473 1,861 40% $46,477 Information 2,378 2,548 170 7% $45,325 Wholesale trade 3,015 3,074 59 2% $44,505 Construction 8,044 9,780 1,736 22% $41,835 Finance and insurance 3,712 3,857 145 4% $39,370 Health care and social assistance 10,197 13,981 3,784 37% $32,833 Real estate and rental and leasing 3,873 5,701 1,828 47% $32,597 Retail trade 17,898 18,665 767 4% $25,353 Administrative and waste services 8,500 10,514 2,014 24% $24,738 Educational services 1,845 2,266 421 23% $24,300

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Fastest Growing Industries, 2002-2007(excluding military)

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Fastest Growing Industries, 2002-2007(excluding military)

Description 2002 Jobs 2007 Jobs Change Change % 2007 EPW Health care and social assistance 10,197 13,981 3,784 37% $32,833 Administrative and waste services 8,500 10,514 2,014 24% $24,738 Professional and technical services 4,612 6,473 1,861 40% $46,477 Real estate and rental and leasing 3,873 5,701 1,828 47% $32,597 Construction 8,044 9,780 1,736 22% $41,835 Other services, except public administration

7,712 9,302 1,590 21% $19,659

Accommodation and food services 10,946 12,471 1,525 14% $13,725 Retail trade 17,898 18,665 767 4% $25,353 Educational services 1,845 2,266 421 23% $24,300 Transportation and warehousing 5,915 6,256 341 6% $46,606

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Projected Industry Growth, 2007-2012

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Projected Industry Growth, 2007-2012

Description 2007 Jobs 2017 Jobs Growth % Growth 2007 EPW Agriculture, natural resources, and mining 816 728 - 88 -11% $15,609 Construction 9,780 11,036 1,256 13% $41,835 Manufacturing 7,790 6,510 -1,280 -16% $65,914 Trade, transportation, and utilities 28,390 32,588 4,199 15% $32,487 Information 2,548 2,943 395 16% $45,325 Financial activities 9,558 12,052 2,494 26% $35,331 Professional and business services 17,303 21,919 4,616 27% $33,363 Education and health services 16,247 21,210 4,963 31% $31,643 Leisure and hospitality 14,465 16,829 2,364 16% $13,368 Other services 9,302 9,986 684 7% $19,659 Government 82,355 83,583 1,228 1% $79,004 198,553 219,384 20,831 10%

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Economic Base & Industry Clusters

• Economic base:– A description of the industries or other income sources that bring

money into a region (rather than merely circulating money alreadypresent), which gives residents of the region the ability to purchaseexports.

• Industry cluster:– The cluster approach is considered important to understanding a

regional economy’ competitive advantage based the geographicalmass of related companies that support each other throughbusiness transactions.

– A group of industries closely connected by supply chains and/orsimilar labor pools.

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Cluster Competitiveness, 2007-2012

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Four Clusters with Potential RegionalCompetitive Advantage, 2007-2012

• Transportation & Logistics Cluster• Life Sciences (biomedical & biotechnology)• Business & Financial Services• Information Technology &

Telecommunications

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Transportation & LogisticsCluster, 2007-2012

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Transportation & LogisticsCluster Occupations, 2007-2012

SOC Code

Name 2007 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change

53-3032 Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer 891 1,006 115 13%

53-7062 Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand 694 839 145 21%

53-3033 Truck drivers, light or delivery services 473 557 84 18%

53-7051 Industrial truck and tractor operators 307 384 77 25%

53-3031 Driver/sales workers 238 278 40 17%

53-7064 Packers and packagers, hand 195 233 38 19%

13-1111 Management analysts 155 225 70 45%

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Life Sciences Cluster, 2007-2012

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Life Sciences ClusterOccupations, 2007-2012

SOC Code

Name 2007 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change

31-1011 Home health aides 1,971 2,603 632 32%

31-1012 Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 702 793 91 13%

39-9021 Personal and home care aides 657 920 263 40%

29-1111 Registered nurses 466 565 99 21%

29-2061 Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses 302 355 53 18%

41-2031 Retail salespersons 266 301 35 13%

41-2011 Cashiers, except gaming 263 288 25 9%

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Business & Financial ServicesCluster, 2007-2012

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Business & Financial ServicesCluster, Occupations, 2007-2012

SOC Code

Name 2007 Jobs 2012 Jobs Change % Change

41-3021 Insurance sales agents 693 758 65 9%

13-2011 Accountants and auditors 470 512 42 9%

43-4051 Customer service representatives 398 474 76 19%

43-9061 Office clerks, general 362 415 53 15%

41-9022 Real estate sales agents 341 457 116 34%

41-9021 Real estate brokers 330 443 113 34%

13-1111 Management analysts 304 400 96 32%