FAP Model Future ATM Profile...FAP and the ECIP European Convergence and Implementation Plan Since 1998, FAP (Future ATM Profile) has been the core component of the European capacity

FAP ModelFuture ATM Profile

System Wide Modeling AP9 - Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) Madrid 16 & 17 Nov. 2006

[email protected]

Content

IntroductionHow the FAP tools are used in the Pan European Capacity Planning Process

FAP Tools Architectural Overview

FAP and the ECIPEuropean Convergence and Implementation Plan

Since 1998, FAP (Future ATM Profile) has been the core component of the European capacity management process, which is the connecting link between project planning (regional CIP objectives) and European target setting.

Medium-term European-wide capacity planning started at PC request in November 1998 :

For each ACC/TMA unit capacity requirements are assessed from the overall network perspective.

Corresponding capacity profiles are published in the European Convergence and Implementation Plan.

ANSPs are required to develop 5-years capacity plans against those profiles, in their Local Convergence and Implementation Plan.

Progress is monitored and plans are updated yearly.

The European ATC Capacity Planning Process (1/3)

Strategic Objective: 1 minute en-route ATFM delay per flight


2.9

4.1

5.5

3.63.1

1.81.2 1.2 1.4

1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Summer

Min

utes

per

flig

ht

En-route Target

En-route optimum

Airport ATFM Delay

En-route ATFM delay


Currenttraffic analysis

Traffic forecast

ACC capacitytargets setting

Consultation +approval process

Capacity planning

Implementationoperations

Economic forecast

User demandAirport plans

Route network plan

Policy onCapacity targets

Traffic statisticsDelay statisticsACC capacityassessment

Overall growth ratesACC demandforecast

Proposed ACCCapacity targets

Agreed ACCcapacity targets(ECIP)

Capacity plansImpact assessment

FAP - Overview (1/2)

BottlenecksWhat if Scenarios

The FAP Network ModelRegional Parameters:

FAPPlatform

56 days simulated30 000 flights/day450 sectors72 ACCs120 airports9000 traffic growth parameters

Global Parameters:

Capacity Profiles Delay ForecastROIEGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4

Capacity Demand ratio

Cos

ts (E

uro)

20052005 2020202020102010

Route & Capacity NetworkCFMU Slot AllocationEconomic Evaluation

Delay Target Source: Prov. Council

Traffic GrowthSource: STATFOR

Cost of Delay Source: PRRs

Route Network Source: SAAM

Sector Capacities andConfigurationSource: ANSPs/CFMU

Airport CapacitiesSource: Airports / Eurocontrol

Cost for ATC CapacitySource: ANSPs / CRCO

BottlenecksBottlenecksWhat if ScenariosWhat if Scenarios


FAPPlatform


Global Parameters:

Capacity Profiles Delay ForecastROIEGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4


Cos

ts (E

uro)

20052005 2020202020102010


Delay Target Source: Prov. Council

Traffic GrowthSource: STATFOR

Cost of Delay Source: PRRs

Route Network Source: SAAM


FAPPlatform


Global Parameters:

Capacity ProfilesCapacity Profiles Delay ForecastDelay ForecastROIEGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4


Cos

ts (E

uro)ROI

EGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4


Cos

ts (E

uro)

2005200520052005 20202020202020202010201020102012


Delay Target Source: Prov. CouncilDelay Target Source: Prov. Council

Traffic GrowthSource: STATFORTraffic GrowthSource: STATFOR

Cost of Delay Source: PRRsCost of Delay Source: PRRs

Route Network Source: SAAMRoute Network Source: SAAM



Airport CapacitiesSource: Airports / EurocontrolAirport CapacitiesSource: Airports / Eurocontrol

Cost for ATC CapacitySource: ANSPs / CRCOCost for ATC CapacitySource: ANSPs / CRCO

FAP - Overview (2/2)

Reference period

Network ATFM simulatorMECA

ACC Costdata

Delay Cost

ECIP ECIP -- 20122012

ROIEGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4


Cos

ts (E

uro)

Routing

STATFOR

FIPS

Future traffic sample

Delay Forecast

TrafficDelaysRegulationsConfigurationsCapacities

Traffic

LCIP

Current ACCCapacities

Demand analysis

Reverse CASA

PACT

Reference period

Content

FAP Simulation Process

Modeling Traffic growth

FAP - Overview

Reference period


ACC Costdata

Delay Cost

ECIP ECIP -- 20122012

ROIEGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4


Cos

ts (E

uro)

Routing

STATFOR

FIPS


Delay Forecast


Traffic

LCIP


Demand analysis

Reverse CASA

PACT

Reference period

Routing

Future Traffic (1/5)

Use of SAAM

System for air traffic Assignment and Analysis at

a Macroscopic level

Shortest Routes on ARNV5x

Future Traffic (2/5)Difference Shortest / Current Routes

STATFOR: Yearly city-pair forecast (low – base – high)ID Scenario TrafficType DepICAO ArrICAO YR0 FC1 FC2 FC3 FC4 FC5 FC6 FC7

1793 Base Com EDDF LIRF 3183 3170 3212 3132 3296 3361 3400 3451


Why ? Allows simultaneous modelling of unaccommodated demand (slot limits) as well as delay due to insufficient runway capacity.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Time

Airport access and delay

Capacity:Above this, any demand is “regulated” (delayed)

Theoretical LimitAbove this any demand is “unaccommodated”


Additional factors

Schedule smoothing (“spreading the peaks”)

Frequency capping

Substitution and inter-modal transport links

24.2

68.4

0 20 40 60 80

En-route

Airport

Percentage Delay Reduction (multi-modal scenario)


traffic growth per ACC

Content

FAP Simulation Process

Measuring ACC capacityTranslating local capacity growth to ACC and network capacities

FAP - Overview

Reference period


ACC Costdata

Delay Cost

ECIP ECIP -- 20122012

ROIEGTT

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4


Cos

ts (E

uro)

Routing

STATFOR

FIPS


Delay Forecast


Traffic

LCIP


Demand analysis

Reverse CASA

PACT

Reference period

ACC Capacities

1. ReverseCASA for Delay Producing Centres

2. PACT (Portable ACC Capacity Tool)

available to all ANSPshttp://pact.eurocontrol.fr/

Estimate Capacity of

ACC CASA

Calculateddelay for

ACC

Calculated =observed ?

Stop

PACT Methodology

10 + 20% = 12 flights/hr

ACC Traffic / Capacity (flights/hr)

36241812

25

35

24

05

10152025303540

SectorWEST

SectorSOUTH

SectorEAST

WholeACC

Sector EAST

Sector WEST

Sector SOUTH

15 + 20% = 18 flights/hr

5 + 20% = 6 flights/hr

ACC Capacity example Increase the ACCtraffic until a sectorbecomes saturated

Sector EAST is saturated after a 20% Increase

ACC Capacity = 36 flights/hr

10 + 20% = 12 flights/hr


36241812

25

35

24

05

10152025303540

SectorWEST

SectorSOUTH

SectorEAST

WholeACC

Sector EAST

Sector WEST

Sector SOUTH

15 + 20% = 18 flights/hr






36241812

25

35

24

05

10152025303540

SectorWEST

SectorSOUTH

SectorEAST

WholeACC

Sector EAST

Sector WEST

Sector SOUTH

15 + 20% = 18 flights/hr





Capacity Profiles (MECA)

ACC Capacities

Future Traffic

Cost of Delay Cost of Capacity

Increase capacityDecrease delay

In ACC with best Return On Investment (ROI)

Delay Target reached ?

Yes

No

Capacity ProfilesCalculated for each ACC in Europe

Delay target obtained at the lowest possible cost

MECA process

Capacity Profiles

Planned ACC Capacities (Mid-Term)

Use of Local Convergence and Implementation Plans (ANSPs):

XXXXACC .sector group - Reference capacity profile and alternative scenarios

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230C

apac

ity p

rofil

e (m

ovem

ents

per

hou

r)

Capacity Profile - Reference 175 184 192 201 210

Capacity Profile - High 181 194 202 211 219

Capacity Profile - Low 166 172 178 184 189

Capacity Profile - Current routes 172 181 189 197 205

Baseline 155

LCIP 2004-08 plan 155 161 172 183 186 190

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

LCIP

1

Delay forecast per ACC

Airport capacities Airport delay forecast

LCIPs

Future traffic

CASASimulation

ACC Capacities

ACC regulations

Delay forecast - Methodology

Delay forecast

Content

FAP

Benefit Assessment

From a Local to a European perspective

Traffic predicted growth plus ‘demand’ changes :Reduced FrequencyUse of less constrained airportsMulti-modal...

ATFM Simulation

Analytic or real-time simulation


Local capacity Gains

Regional ProjectsC-ATM, G2G, DMEAN..

Infrastructure / Procedures

Europe-wide simulationDelay, bottlenecks,

≈ 30000 flights per day,450 sectors, 72 ACCs, 120 airports

States’ Capacity Plans Airport capacity evolution Traffic predicted growth plus ‘demand’ changes :Reduced FrequencyUse of less constrained airportsMulti-modal...

ATFM Simulation



Local capacity Gains

Regional ProjectsC-ATM, G2G, DMEAN..

Infrastructure / Procedures

Europe-wide simulationDelay, bottlenecks,

≈ 30000 flights per day,450 sectors, 72 ACCs, 120 airports

States’ Capacity Plans Airport capacity evolution

Benefits – System Access

• Benefits can be assessed in terms of:• System Access

The adjacent diagram indicates atthe overall network level the potentialdemand growth that could not beaccommodated at 2006 and 2015.This figure indicates that some22.5% of the predicted trafficaugmentation beyond 2001 cannotbe accommodated by the systemas a result of the modelled airportcapacity constraints.

Benefits – Trajectory length and Cost

Benefits – Capacity and Delays

• Benefits can be assessed in terms of:• Workload and Capacity• Delay and Cost

The delay costs are computed for passenger flights, i.e. some 75% of all flights in Europe. Theestimate cost of ground delay is €83 per minute in average for an aircraft of 140 seats. In order toaccount for other traffic (freight, military and general aviation), an approximate figure of 15% isadded, which reduces the average estimated cost of ground delay to €71 per minute.

Questions

Documents

FAP Model Future ATM Profile...FAP and the ECIP European Convergence and Implementation Plan Since 1998, FAP (Future ATM Profile) has been the core component of the European capacity