Falling Oil Prices Reveal America's Fracking Trap -- And ... Oil... · Falling Oil Prices Reveal America's Fracking Trap -- And Saudi Arabia's Continued Energy Dominance | Alexis

Falling Oil Prices Reveal America's Fracking Trap -- And Saudi Arabia's Continued Energy Dominance | Alexis Crow

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Alexis Crow Become a fanPrincipal of Groppe Interests, co-author Quicksand: Why theUS Shale Boom is Shorter Than You Think

Posted: 11/04/2014 1:23 pm EST Updated: 57 minutes ago

Falling Oil Prices RevealAmerica's Fracking Trap -- AndSaudi Arabia's Continued EnergyDominance

LONDON -- The end of the shale boom is nigh. The recent plunge in oil pricesreveals an economic and geological reality that some brave industry analysts depict,but which power brokers in Washington, Houston and on Wall Street fail to accept.With low energy prices, the U.S. shale revolution is unaffordable.

In contrast with producing conventional oil and gas in the Middle East, the cost ofproducing shale gas and light tight oil in the United States is simply unsustainable.Far from leading America to a future of energy independence, the fracking boom haslocked the country into a high-cost game. And despite surging oil production inNorth Dakota's Bakken Shale and Texas' Eagle Ford Shale, America continues torely on OPEC oil to meet its transport needs. In fact, Saudi imports to the U.S. haveremained steady amidst the shale gale in the last few years.

Those journalists who envision a "world without OPEC," and geopolitical risk

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experts who question an "end of the Middle East," had better think again.

According to geologist Arthur Berman, the sharp gust of shale may provide the U.S.with a 14-year supply of natural gas. While this may do wonders for electricity bills,Americans will rely on Arabian oil for as long as they drive cars and fly airplanes.

The impact of low oil prices on shale production reveals something we have alreadyseen in natural gas -- but few want to acknowledge it. The Bureau of EconomicGeology at the University of Texas -- arguably the country's most preeminentgathering of geologists -- completed a study of the performance of producing shalegas in the Barnett and Fayetteville reservoirs. An interdisciplinary team ofgeologists, economists and engineers examined these shale basins on a well-by-wellbasis and found that with $4.00 per MMBtu, 70 percent of the wells werecommercial failures. To put it simply, producers were making less money than theywere putting in.

Hang on a minute! According to one of the country's most prestigious energyresearch groups, more than two-thirds of some of America's largest shale gas playsare economically unviable? This is fairly big news to brush under the carpet.Although the BEG reports are for natural gas plays, the team is set to publishreports this year on shale oil in Texas' Eagle Ford, and we are likely to see analogousresults. Shale oil and gas are simply too expensive over the long term.

Why is the cost of shale so high? Shale hydrocarbons are trapped in densely packedlayers of rock. In order to penetrate the rock, companies must use sophisticatedtechnology to drill down horizontally -- sometimes up to three miles -- and thenpump the formation with a mixture of water, sand, and "proppants" to allow theresources to seep out.

This deep mining procedure is worlds away from the simple oil and gas operationsin the Middle East, where resources are often easily extracted from the sandstoneand limestone reservoirs. In shale production, not only is the cost of each wellastronomical (from about $3 - $12 million), but also, a vast number of wells must bedrilled. According to the International Energy Agency, the Parisian-based researchinstitute backed by wealthy countries, it takes approximately 2,500 wells per year tomaintain production of 1 million barrels per day in North Dakota, while it requiresabout 60 wells per year to maintain the same level of oil production in Iraq.

The need to drill horizontally means more acreage -- and as producers fork out cashfor royalties to private landowners, more acreage means a bigger bill. Now we seewhy it costs $100 to produce a barrel of oil in the Bakken basin of North Dakotaand Montana, while producing the same barrel of oil in Saudi Arabia's prolificGhawar field costs in the order of $10.

Finally -- and this may be the death knell for America's fracking boom -- shale wellspeak early. After an initial flush of oil and gas, production sharply drops offproducing almost half of a well's reserves in the first year. This is in contrast withmost conventional production, which yields a longer plateau of high productionrates.

The sharp decline rate in the production of shale is what has most investors andpolicymakers confused: although these wells are estimated to have a long shelf lifeuntil 2020, 2030, or 2035, the "tail" of production is long and skinny, rather than acorpulent and abundant plateau.

Even when presented with this data, Wall Street financiers profess their faith in thepower of technology to 'optimize' the process of shale production. However,technology comes with a cost -- and even the most sophisticated tools are powerlessover the geological reality of rapid well depletion rates and the economic reality ofthe high cost of shale production. In spite of the wonders of Silicon Valley,technology will not magically transform America's fracking revolution into a low-cost energy solution.

Yes, the U.S. may indeed surpass Saudi Arabia as the world's largest producer ofcrude oil, but the real question is: at what cost? And for how long?

WHAT SHORT SHALE MEANS FOR MIDDLE EAST POLITICS

Curiously, on the eve of launching airstrikes at ISIS, President Obama reminded theAmerican public that we are closer "than [we have] been in decades" to energyindependence. Yes, he proffers, we may be peppering Syria and Iraq with asmattering of airstrikes, but don't worry guys, this time, it's different: we're not in it

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for oil.

This is a comforting tonic to liberal policy circles. At last, America can become aresponsible power. It can return home from its foreign policy misadventures, and itmight even benevolently share its bounty of natural gas via exports to its free tradepartners. Unfortunately, the economic and geological reality illustrated in the BEGreports -- and plunging oil prices -- indicate a shale bubble, and consequently, afuture of U.S. energy dependence on OPEC.

Well, what about "the end of the Middle East?" Surely low oil prices are hammeringSaudi Arabia's ability to cover its civil service salaries, fuel subsidies and otherbudget costs to keep its population happy. But the bottom line is: Saudi has amarket. It is Asia.

Beyond shocks in emerging markets, Asia's resource-hungry nations will continue toengage in the Middle East as a source of relatively cheap and abundant oil and gas -- at a much lower cost than the U.S.

America, America Energy, U.S., u.s Energy, Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia Energy, SaudiArabia Oil, Middle East Oil, Middle East Gas, Fracking, U.S. Fracking, Shale, Shale Boom,U.S. Energy Prices, Opec,

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Oil prices are dropping but the fracking revolution rolls on

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huffingtonpost.comFalling Oil Prices Reveal America's Fracking Trap -- And Saudi Arabia's Continued Energy Dominance|Alexis Crow

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