!"#!$%$!#

&'()*+),-././(0(,1)2)345,67(8922(7,(8,0+9,:40974.3(4.;,<+7)23.4,,=4)>972)0',

Faith based Sustainability – The Ethic of Eco-Theology and the Spirit of Natural Capitalism

ACUCA　Presentation

1

The Purpose of this presentation is to try to show, The ethic of eco-theology can promote natural capitalism and achieve green economy (steady state, low carbon, sound material circulation, flourishing within limits etc.).

2

Summary The ethic of eco-theology can promote natural capitalism and create a graceful simple-living lifestyle based on the advanced science and technology.

Environmental ethics Consensus for

Sustainability of Biosphere and

human civilization

Eco-theologyWorld Religions Eco-theological Approaches(1)  Ethics panel, Science

Panels, Earth law (2)  Green Economy

Tax bads (depletion and pollution)

(3)  Industrial Metabolism Ecodesign, Eco-Indsutrial-Park, Eco-city

(4)  Corporate Social Responsibility

(5)  Ethical and Green Market Green Purchasing and Investment

(6)  Simple living, Eco-Culture Well designed infrastructure

Bahá’ í Faith Buddhism Christianity Confucianism Hindunism Islamism Judaism Taoism ・・・・

Eco-philosophy, Environmental Science, etc.

Ecological Civilization

3

What is Sustainable Development ?

Part 1

4

1-1. Definition of SD by Bruntland Report 1-2. Early Thoughts on Sustainable Society

Steady State Economy by Herman Daly The Four System Conditions by Karl-Henrik Robert

1-3. Recent Thoughts on Sustainable Society Resource Productivity by F. Schmidt-Bleek Prosperity without Growth by Tim Jackson

1-4. A Call to Integrate Faith, Ecology and the Global Economy 1-5. Humanity has already transgressed at least three Planetary Boundaries 1-6. Recent Status of Global Warming

Dangerous Climate Change Extreme Weather Events 4ºC Global Warming by 2060 Emission Pathway needed to keep 2ºC target

1-7. Decoupling Status of Metal Consumption from Economic Growth 1-8. Three Different Scenarios for Resource Use Up to 2050 1-9. IEA Strategy for 2ºC/450ppm by 2030 1-10. Full solar Supply of Industrialized Countries – The Example Japan 1-11. We need new MAD Strategies.

Part 1　 What is Sustainable Development (SD) ?

5

Natural science perspective • planetary boundaries • risk of tipping points • very limited global carbon budget in order to keep the 2ºC climate target (750 GtCO2 exhausted in 20 years) Social perspective • Over 2billion people living on less than $2 a day • 1.6billion people today without access to electricity • 900million people without access to transportation • 1.8million deaths per year due to lack of sanitation, poor hygiene, and unsafe drinking water

Great Transformation : Comprehensive societal, economic and cultural change is needed

6

OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction March 2012

By 2050, without new policies, ! A word economy four times larger than today is projected to need 80% more energy in 2050 without new policy action. ! Global energy mix in 2050 will not differ significantly from today, with the share of fossil energy at about 85%, renewables including biofuels just over 10%, and the balance nuclear. ! To feed a growing population with changing dietary preference, agricultural land is projected to expand globally in the next decade to match the increase in food demand, but at a diminishing rate. ! Global greenhouse gas emissions projected to increase by 50%, primary due to a 70% growth in energy-related CO2 emissions. ! Globally, terrestrial biodiversity as measured as mean species abundance is projected to decrease by a further 10% by 2050, with significant losses in Asia, Europe and Southern Africa. ! Globally, mature forest areas are projected to shrink by 13%. ! Freshwater availability will be further strained with 2.3 billion more people than today (in total over 40% of the global population) projected to be living in river basins under severe water stress, especially in North and South Africa, and South and Central Asia. etc.

7

!"#$%&'%()'$#&*#+,-%.-/-,012-*$%3

?@20.)4.A;9,B9>9;(C/940,)2,B9>9;(C/940,0+.0,/9902,0+9,499B2,(8,0+9,C792940,

D)0+(@0,*(/C7(/)2)45,0+9,.A);)0',(8,8@0@79,59497.3(42,0(,/990,0+9)7,(D4,

499B2,E=4)09B,F.3(42,G(7;B,<(//)22)(4,(4,H4>)7(4/940,.4B,I9>9;(C/940J

#K%LM$

N?@20.)4.A;9O,*(@C;9B,D)0+,NB9>9;(C/940O,9PC9*02,*(434@9B,57(D0+,A@0,4(0,

2@*+,.2,B957.B92,(CC(70@4)392,8(7,0+9,8@0@79$,?(,B9Q49BJ,2@20.)4.A);)0',*(@;B,

.CC;',0(,2(*).;,)4230@3(42,E*(;;9592J,A.4R2J,C(C@;.3(4J,*@;0@79M,.2,D9;;,.2,

94>)7(4/9402$,,

S@0,=F<HI,)4094B9B,)0,0(,.CC;',0(,.57)*@;0@79J,8(79207'J,D.097,@29J,C(;;@3(4,

;9>9;2J,)4B@207'J,792(@7*9,9P07.*3(4J,@7A.4)T.3(4J,4.3(4.;,94>)7(4/940.;,

C(;)*)92,.4B,207.095)92$

798$,U,F9D,H4>)7(4/940.;,H0+)*2,A',V(;/92,&(;20(4,:::

8

The environment does not exist as a sphere separate from human actions, ambitions, and needs, and attempts to defend it in isolation from human concerns have given the very word “environment” a connotation of naiveté in some political circles. The word “development” has also been narrowed by some into a very limited focus, along the lines of “what poor nations should do to become richer”, and thus again is automatically dismissed by many in the international arena as being a concern of specialists, of those involved in questions of “development assistance”. But the “environment” is where we all live; and “development” is what we all do in attempting to improve our lot within that abode. The two are inseparable.

Bruntland Report

9

Herman E. Daly “Steady State Economics”

Karl Henrik-Robert “The Natural Step”

Early Thoughts on Sustainable Society

10

4),-'%506%#%($-#78%($#$-%9:0*028%+8%;-62#*%.#,8%

E#M,W.)40.)4,0+9,+9.;0+,(8,9*(2'209/2,.4B,0+9,;)89X2@CC(70,297>)*92,0+9',C7(>)B9$,

E!M,HP07.*0,7949D.A;9,792(@7*92,;)R9,Q2+,.4B,3/A97,.0,.,7.09,4(,8.2097,0+.4,0+9',*.4,

A9,7959497.09B$,

EYM,<(42@/9,4(4X7949D.A;9,792(@7*92,;)R9,8(22);,8@9;2,.4B,/)497.;2,.0,.,7.09,4(,8.2097,

0+.4,0+9',*.4,A9,79C;.*9B,A',0+9,B)2*(>97',(8,7949D.A;9,2@A230@092$,

EZM,I9C(2)0,D.2092,)4,0+9,94>)7(4/940,.0,.,7.09,4(,8.2097,0+.4,0+9',*.4,A9,2.89;',

.22)/);.09B$,

A',?(@4B,S'09

S949Q02,(8,.,?09.B',?0.09,H*(4(/',

U,209.B',20.09,9*(4(/',)2,0+9,(4;',0'C9,(8,9*(4(/',0+.0,)2,2@20.)4.A;9,(>97,

0+9,;(45,097/$,:0,)2,.4,9*(4(/',0+.0,/9902,C9(C;92,499B2,D)0+(@0,

@4B97/)4)45,0+9,;)89X2@CC(70,297>)*92,(8,0+9,C;.490$

11

[  :4,0+9,2@20.)4.A;9,2(*)90'J,4.0@79,)2,4(0,2@A\9*0,0(,2'209/.3*.;;',)4*79.2)45,*(4*9407.3(42,(8,2@A20.4*92,9P07.*09B,87(/,0+9,H.70+]2,*7@20$

?'209/,<(4B)3(4,#$

[  :4,0+9,2@20.)4.A;9,2(*)90'J,4.0@79,)2,4(0,2@A\9*0,0(,2'209/.3*.;;',)4*79.2)45,*(4*9407.3(42,(8,2@A20.4*92,C7(B@*9B,A',2(*)90'$

?'209/,<(4B)3(4,!$

[  :4,0+9,2@20.)4.A;9,2(*)90'J,4.0@79,)2,4(0,2@A\9*0,0(,2'209/.3*.;;',)4*79.2)45,B957.B.3(4,A',C+'2)*.;,/9.42$

?'209/,<(4B)3(4,Y$,

[  :4,0+9,2@20.)4.A;9,2(*)90'J,+@/.4,499B2,.79,/90,D(7;BD)B9$

?'209/,<(4B)3(4,Z$,

()'$#&*#+&,&$8<%="-%>0)6%(8'$-2%?0*7&@0*'%798$,^+9,F.0@7.;,?09C,?0(7',A',_.7;XV947)R,&(A970

S.*R*.2345,20.702,D)0+,B9Q4)45,.,B92)7.A;9,8@0@79,.4B,0+94,A.*RD.7B2,0(,)B9438',

C(;)*)92,.4B,C7(57./2,0+.0,D);;,*(449*0,0+9,8@0@79,0(,0+9,C792940$12

Discussions for Economic Growth

! Economy is a subset of ecology. ! Economic wealth is just one of many factors in human happiness. We all need to have our basic needs met, but once we have enough, any further

wealth is irrelevant. Growth becomes like an arms race in which the two sides cancel each other’s gains. The quantitative expansion of the economic subsystem increases environmental and

social costs faster than production benefits. ! Growth is unevenly distributed. ! There is nowhere left to grow. We have lived for 200 years in growth economy. According to the famous “Limits to Growth” study in 1972, “ If the present growth

trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached around 2020.”

We can not have unlimited economic growth and a stable climate or healthy ecosystems at the same time.

13

Discussions for Sustainable Economy

!  To slow and eventually begin to reverse material growth ‐ that’s the throughput of resources, as inputs into the economy and outputs as

waste. !  Factor 10 times of increase in the resource productivity is needed. !  Tax bads (depletion and pollution) and, not goods (income, value

added) !  Changing what we value from GDP to ISEW (Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare), GNH (Gross National Happiness), GPI etc. !  The rich should reduce their throughput growth to free up resources

and ecological space for use by the poor, while focusing their domestic efforts on developments, that can be freely shared with poor countries.

14

!  ^+9,2'209/)*,.CC7(.*+,0(,94>)7(4/940.;,C7(09*3(4,)2,0(,*@70.);,0+9,/(A);)T.3(4J,9P07.*3(4J,.4B,@29,(8,4.0@7.;,792(@7*92,.4B,)4*79.29,0+9)7,C7(B@*3>)0',

0+7(@5+(@0,0+9,9*(4(/'$,,!  H*(X)44(>.3(4,/9.42,0+9,*79.3(4,(8,4(>9;,.4B,*(/C933>9;',C7)*9B,5((B2J,

C7(*92292J,2'209/2J,297>)*92J,.4B,C7(*9B@792,0+.0,*.4,2.328',+@/.4,499B2,.4B,

A7)45,`@.;)0',(8,;)89,0(,.;;,C9(C;9,D)0+,.,;)89X*'*;9XD)B9,/)4)/.;,@29,(8,4.0@7.;,

792(@7*92,C97,@4)0,(@0C@0J,.4B,.,/)4)/.;,79;9.29,(8,0(P)*,2@A20.4*92$,,!  HPC97)94*9,+.2,2+(D4,0+.0,.,7.B)*.;;',B9/.097).;)T9B,D920974,;)89,20';9,)2,

09*+4)*.;;',89.2)A;9,D)0+(@0,;(22,(8,94B,@29,2.328.*3(4,X,@C,0(,.,8.*0(7,#",.4B,

/(79$,,!  ^+9,R9',B7)>97,8(7,9*(4(/)*,B9*)2)(4X/.R)45,)2,0+9,/.7R90,C7)*9,(8,5((B2,.4B,

297>)*92$,V94*98(70+,0+9,N9*(;(5)*.;,07@0+O,/@20,A9,79a9*09B,)4,0+9,C7)*9,

.7*+)09*0@79,(8,0+9,/.7R90J,79D.7B)45,0+9,C7(B@*3(4,.4,@29,(8,5((B2,.4B,

297>)*92,D)0+,0+9,;(D920,C(22)A;9,792(@7*9,)40942)0',EW.097).;Xb((0209CJ,W:6?M$,,!  S',!"c",0+9,D(7;BD)B9,'9.7;',/.097).;,*(42@/C3(4,C97,6972(4,2+(@;B,+.>9,

79.*+9B,dX%, (̂42$,b(7,)4B@207).;)T9B,*(@407)92,0+)2,)/C;)92,.4,.>97.59,0948(;B,

B9/.097).;)T.3(4J,')9;B)45,C((797,*(@407)92,94>)7(4/940.;,2C.*9,8(7,0+9)7,

B9>9;(C/940$

="0)A"$'%0*%#%()'$#&*#+,-%(0:&-$8%B%>C%(:"2&7$DE,--FG'%H&-I'

15

Prof. Dr. Friedrich Schmidt-Bleek President Factor 10 Institute

I=Impact P=Population

by 2050in order to keep the impact at the 1990 level.16

Dematerialization

! Dematerialization refers to the absolute or relative reduction in the quantity of materials required to serve economic functions in society. Dematerialization means doing more with less.

! Dematerialization is Decarbonization (after F. Schmid-Bleek) ! Eco-industrial park (EIP) is an industrial symbiosis network where

companies in a region collaborate to use each other’s by-products and otherwise share resources. EIP can contribute to “ Dematerialization”.

! Servicizing refers to selling a service or function rather than a product. Actual ownership of the product remains with the supplier, and customers pay for use and maintenance.

! Producing performance, selling and buying performance, and maintaining performance overtime (after Walter R. Stahel).

17

Prosperity without growth ? 12 Steps to a Sustainable Economy

by Tim Jackson

Building a Sustainable Macro-Economy 1. Developing macro-economic capability 2. Investing in public assets and infrastructures 3. Increasing financial and fiscal prudence 4. Reforming macro-economic accounting Protecting Capabilities for flourishing 5. Sharing the available work and improving the work-life balance 6. Tackling systemic inequality 7. Measuring human and social capital 8. Strengthening human and social capital 9. Reversing the culture of consumerism Respecting Ecological Limits 10. Imposing clearly defined resource/emissions caps 11. Implementing fiscal reform for sustainability 12. Promoting technology transfer and international ecosystem protection.

Recent thoughts on Sustainable Society

18

A Call to Integrate Faith, Ecology and the Global Economy

November 12, 2009 Endorsed by 74 Religious Organizations and NGOs

As hope-filled people, we stand in awe of Earth’s goodness and its capacity to provide abundant life for all God’s creation. We recognize our interconnection with Earth-with air, water, land, plants and other creatures. We recognize the dignity of the human person as an individual and as part of a community. We embrace our power and responsibility to create a human economy that fits within Earth’s ecological boundaries, more authentically serves human needs and builds community. We envision: A new economic model that embodies social and ecological values bound by Earth’s biophysical limits. etc. (1)  Paradigm shift in mindset and values. This will entail change from a focus on material goods to holistic well-being; from excess to sufficiency; from exclusion to inclusion; from competition to cooperation……etc. (2)  Public policies for an economy of right relationship, …… (3)  An economy of thriving and resilient communities…….. 19

By Dave Griggs

20

(Climate Change, Biodiversity loss and Biogeo-chemical flow boundary) ref. Planetary Boundaries, Johan Rockstroem et al, Ecology and Society 2009

Earth System Process Planetary Boundary

1. Climate Change Atmospheric CO2 Concentration, 350ppm (350-550ppm)

2. Ocean AcidificationSustain more than 80% of the preindustrial aragonite saturation State of mean surface ocean

3. Stratospheric ozone depletion less than 5% reduction from pre-industrial level

4. Atmospheric aerosol loading to be determined

5. Biogeo-chemical flows: Interference with P and N cycles

P < 10 !(10!-100!) N : Limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N2 to 35 MtNyr-1

6. Global freshwater use less than 4,000km3yr-1

7. Land system change less than 15% of global ice – free land surface converted to cropland

8. Biodiversity loss less than 10 E/MSy

9. Chemical Pollution to be determined 21

JK??%>0)6$"%L''-''2-*$%4-106$<%%?,&2#$-%?"#*A-%MNNO%PL4QR

22

K6-'-*$%($#$)'%05%S,0+#,%!#62&*A

E#M<.7A(4,9/)22)(42,87(/,8(22);,*(/A@23(4,.4B,*9/940,C7(B@*3(4,)4,!""%,

,,,,,D979,%$Le0<J,Z#f,+)5+97,0+.4,)4,#KK"$,

,

E!Mb(7,0+9,Q720,3/9,B9>9;(C)45,*(@407)92,.79,4(D,9/)g45,/(79,8(22);,8@9;,,

,,,,,<h!,9/)22)(42,EccfM,0+.4,B9>9;(C9B,<(@407)92$,

,

EYM 7̂(C)*.;,B98(7920.3(4,)2,792C(42)A;9,8(7,.A(@0,#$c,e0<,C97,'9.7J,.**(@4345,

,,,,,8(7,.A(@0,#cf,(8,0(0.;,.40+7(C(594)*,*.7A(4,9/)22)(42$,

,

EZM:8,*@77940,0794B2,C79>.);$,5;(A.;,8(22);2,8@9;,9/)22)(42,.79,9PC9*09B,0(,7)29,0(,,

,,,,,A90D994,#!,.4B,#%,e0<,C97,'9.7,A',!"c"E!,0(,Y,3/92,0+9,;9>9;,)4,!"""M,

,

EcMU)7,09/C97.0@79,)4*79.29,87(/,#%c"X#%KK,0(,!""#X!""c,)2,"$Ld℃,

,

EdMF.0@7.;,<h!,2)4R2,)4,0+9,(*9.4,.4B,;.4B,*@77940;',79/(>9,.4,.>97.59,

,,,,,(8,ccf,(8,.;;,<h!,9/)22)(42,87(/,+@/.4,.*3>)392,9>97','9.7$,

,

ELM<h!,*(4*9407.3(4,)4,!""%,79.*+92,Y%cCC/EY%f,.A(>9,C79X)4B@207).;,;9>9;2M,

,,,,,D+)2+,)2,0+9,+)5+920,*(4*9407.3(4,)4,.0,;9.20,0+9,;.20,!/);;)(4,'9.72$,

!"#$%&'()$*+,-'."/'01123."451

23

T+'-6/-7%A,0+#,%?TM%-2&''&0*'%5602%50''&,%>)-,%+)6*&*A%#*7%:-2-*$%1607):@0*%

^+9,<(C94+.594,I).54(2)2J,!""K24

by Prof. H. J. Schellnhuber

25

^+9,<(C94+.594,I).54(2)2J,!""K

?021#6&'0*%05%/#6&0)'%U06$"-6*%;-2&'1"-6-%%%%%%$-21-6#$)6-%6-:0*'$6):@0*%%

26

(-#%,-/-,%:"#*A-%%

^+9,<(C94+.594,I).54(2)2J,!""K27

11921

2007

Courtesy of the Royal Geographical Society

Courtesy of Glacier Works

Melting of Mountain Glaciers

28

Dangerous Climate Change

Reasons for concern (IPCC AR3, AR4) (1) Risk to unique and threatened systems

coral reefs, tropical mountain glaciers, endangered species etc. (2) Risk of extreme weather events

heat waves, floods, droughts, wildfires, hurricanes (3) Disparities of impacts and vulnerabilities

disproportionate harm to developing countries and the poor in developed countries

(4) Aggregate damages net global market damages

(5) Risks of large-scale discontinuities rapid sea-level rise, ocean acidification etc.

Hansen et al (2007) conclude “identification of ‘dangerous’ effects is partly subjective, but we find evidence that added global warming of more than 1ºC above the level in 2000 has effect that may be highly disruptive.” 29

Eｘtream Weather EventsJun 06 2011

30

MNVN%9W$6-2-%!-#$"-6%?0'$%X&/-'Y%;-#,$"Y%9:0*028%,I.4)9;,i$,G9)22J,1.;97),1.2`@9TJ,.4B,S94,_.;B@42R),,,UC7);,!"##,,,U/97)*.4,67(57922,h75$,

N?*)943202,C79B)*0,0+.0,09/C97.0@792,(>97,/(20,(8,0+9,=4)09B,

?0.092,.79,>97',;)R9;',0(,)4*79.29,A',/(79,0+.4,0+9,5;(A.;,

.>97.59,0+)2,*940@7'$,

U4B,5)>94,0+9,9>)B94*9J,;95)2;.0(72,87(/,20.092,0+.0,.79,

C.73*@;.7;',>@;497.A;9,0(,,9P079/9,D9.0+97,9>9402,D(@;B,B(,

D9;;,0(,D(7R,0(D.7B,79B@*)45,0+9,*.7A(4,B)(P)B9,C(;;@3(4,

B7)>)45,0+929,B7.23*,*;)/.09,*+.4592$,

S@0,*;)/.09,2*)94*9,B94)972,C972)20,)4,<(457922$,

j.20,/(40+J,0+9,&9C@A;)*.4,/.\(7)0',)4,0+9,V(@29,A;(*R9B,0+9,

H6U,87(/,;)/)345,eVe,9/)22)(42,)4,.,!ZK,0(,#LL,>(09$O

31

9W$6-2-%I-#$"-6%&*%MNVN

•  ="-%6-:067%"-#$%I#/-%#*7%I&,7Z6-'%&*%4)''&#%•  [0*'00*#,%\007&*A%&*%K#F&'$#*%

•  4#&*%B%&*7):-7%,#*7',&7-'%&*%?"&*#%•  ?#,/&*A%05%#%,#6A-%&:-+-6A%5602%$"-%S6--*,#*7%&:-%'"--$%

•  .60)A"$'%#*7%I&,7Z6-'%&*%L)'$6#,&#%•  L%6-:067%*)2+-6%05%"&A"%$-21-6#$)6-%7#8'%&*%$"-%-#'$-6*%](L%

PUL(L%6-106$'%"0^-'$%%_#*)#68%D%_)68%MNVN%0*%6-:067R%

!06,7%[-$-060,0A&:#,%T6A#*&`#@0*%'$#$-7a%

ND+);9,.,;(4597,3/9,7.459,)2,79`@)79B,0(,920.A;)2+,D+90+97,.4,

)4B)>)B@.;,9>940,)2,.k7)A@0.A;9,0(,*;)/.09,*+.459J,$"-%'-b)-*:-%05%:)66-*$%-/-*$'%2#$:"-'%JK??%16-7&:@0*'O$,

32

($)**&*A%UTLL%2#1%05%=-**-''--G'%%VNNND8-#6%7-,)A-% [#8%VDMY%MNVN

Vc%'&$-'%"#7%6#&*5#,,%-W:--7&*A%2#W&2)2%#''0:&#$-7%I&$"%;)66&:#*-%d#$6&*#%,#*75#,,C%

33

4)''&#*%[-$-060,0A&:#,%?-*$-6<%%e="-6-%I#'%*0$"&*A%'&2&,#6%$0%$"&'%0*%$"-%$-66&$068%05%4)''&#%7)6&*A%$"-%,#'$%0*-%$"0)'#*7%8-#6'%&*%6-A#67%$0%

$"-%"-#$Cf

34

Russia’s 2010 July Heat RecordStudy Finds 80% of Chance Russia’s 2010 July Heat Record Would Not Have

Occurred Without Climate Warming. Probability of July average temperature anomalies in Moscow, Russia since 1950. The image shows that the average temperature in Moscow for July 2010 was significantly hotter than in

any year since 1950.

Source: Climate Central35

Huge iceberg breaks off Greenland glacier

Image acquired July 28, 2010.

Ice Island Calves off Petermann Glacier

Source: NASA

Image acquired Aug. 5, 2010.

36

Crack in Pine Island Glacier

February, 2012 37

FU?U,(A297>92,l,

8(7,0+9,Q720,3/9,

l,0+9,C(D97,(8,.4,

9.70+`@.R9,.4B,

02@4./),0(,A79.R,

(m,;.759,)*9A9752,

.,+9/)2C+979,

.D.'$

March 2011 Japan Tsunami broke off icebergs in Antarctica

38

A man marooned by flood waters, alongside his livestock, waves towards an Army

helicopter for relief handouts in the Rajanpur district of Pakistan's Punjab province on

August 9, 2010.

Source: boston.com

Pakistan Floods

39

Australia‘s Queensland faces ’biblical‘ flood BBC News, 1 January 2011

A senior official has described the flooding in Queensland, Australia, as a disaster of "biblical proportions". Rockhampton, where 77,000 people for impact, amid warnings of 30ft (9m) floodwaters. More than 20 other towns have already been left cut off or flooded across an area larger than France and Germany. At least six river systems across Queensland have broken their banks. The floods have affected about 200,000 people, and many have been evacuated. There are concerns that damage could cost billions of Australian dollars to repair. “In many ways, it is a disaster of biblical proportions,” State Treasurer Andrew Fraser told journalists in the flood-hit town of Bundaberg. 40

41

U.S Drought Monitor (July 5, 2011)

Maps are released each Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

(Source: Drought Monitor)42

=-W#'%.60)A"$%;#'%;&$%?6&@:#,%($#A-%L*7%[#8%

!06'-*

^+9,B7(@5+0,2)0@.3(4,

)4, 9̂P.2,+.2,79.*+9B,,

0+9,*7)3*.;,20.59J,2.'2,,

., 9̂P.2,UnW,,

=4)>972)0',,

.0/(2C+97)*,2*)94320,D+(,.;2(,297>92,

.2,*;)/.0(;(5)20,8(7, 9̂P.2J,.4B,0+9,=$?$,

I7(@5+0,W(4)0(7,+.2,B92)54.09B,C.702,

(8,*9407.;,.4B,9.20974, 9̂P.2,.2,@4B97,

N9P*9C3(4.;,B7(@5+0O,)4,)02,;.0920,

.22922/940$

http://tamunews.tamu.edu/2011/04/07/

43

Climate Variability and Climate Change: The New Climate Dice

10 November 2011

J. Hansen, M. Sato. R. Ruedy

Abstract. The “climate dice” describing the chance of an unusually warm or cool season, relative to the climatology of 1951-1980, have progressively become more “loaded” during the past 30 years, coincident with increased global warming. The most dramatic and important change of the climate dice is the appearance of a new category of extreme climate outliers. These extremes were practically absent in the period of climatology, covering much less than 1% of Earth’s surface. Now summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (") warmer than climatology, typically cover about 10% of the land area. Thus there is no need to equivocate about the summer heat waves in Texas in 2011 and Moscow in 2010, which exceeded 3" – it is nearly certain that they would not have occurred in the absence of global warming. If global warming is not slowed from its current pace, by mid-century 3! events will be the new norm and 5! events will be common.

44

After Praying for Rain, Texas Governor Rick Perry Prays for the EPA to Stop Environmental Regulations. THINKPROGRESS

45

“I, Rick Perry, Governor of Texas, under the authority vested in me by the Constitution and Statutes of the State of Texas, do hereby proclaim the three-day period from Friday, April 22,2011, to Sunday, April 24,2011, as Days of Prayer for Rain in the State of Texas. I urge Texans of all faiths and traditions to offer prayers on those days for the healing of our land, the rebuilding of our communities and the restoration of our normal way of life.”

Science cannot disprove the possibility of divine intervention. However, there is a relevant saying that “Heaven helps those who help themselves.”

Science does show that business-as-usual fossil fuel emissions will cause atmospheric CO2 to continue to increase rapidly. The increasing greenhouse gases will cause the rapid global warming of the past three decades to continue, and this warming will cause the climate dice to become more and more loaded with greater and greater extreme events. The probability that this conclusion is wrong is about as close to zero as one can get.

J. Hansen, M. Sato, R. Ruedy NASA, USA

46

Area of the world covered by temperature anomalies in categories defined as hot ( >0.43!), very hot (>2!), and extremely hot (3!),

with analogous divisions for cold anomalies

Source: C

limate P

rogress47

Severe weather continues in central US The Joplin twister, which killed more than 120 people, is the eighth deadliest storm on record in the United States dating back to 1840. This year's tornado season has produced approximately 1,000 twisters and has taken the lives of more than 300 people.

48

Debbie Surlin salvages items from her parent's home in Joplin, Mo. Wednesday, May 25, 2011. The home's residents Beverly and Roy Winans rode out the EF-5 tornado by hiding under a bed in the home. The tornado tore through much of the city Sunday, damaging a hospital and hundreds of homes and businesses and killing at least 123 people. (Charlie Riedel/Associated Press)

49

Massive sand storm hits Phoenix ARIZONA, July 5th 2011

A monstrous dust storm roared through Phoenix, Arizona on Tuesday night, delaying flights and causing power outages for thousands of people. The AP reports that the massive dust cloud, also known as a "haboob," was around 5,000 feet when it arrived in Phoenix, but radar data reveals that it reached heights anywhere from 8,000 to 10,000 feet high prior. The storm appeared to be around 50 miles wide in some areas, KSAZ-TV reported.

50

Thailand flood reaches Bangkok This aerial picture shows an under-construction temple surrounded by floodwaters outside the

ancient Thai capital of Ayutthaya, north of Bangkok on October 11, 2011. (Christophe Archambault/AFP/Getty Images)

51

People push their belongings through floodwaters during an evacuation from a flooded market in Bangkok October 24, 2011. (Sukree Sukplang/Reuters)

52

From Cairo to the Cape, climate

change begins to take hold of Africa

The world's poorest

communities have begun to experience extreme weather

outside the natural variability of African climate. Without a rapid reduction in

emissions, the continent faces calamitous

temperature rises within this century

53

?"&*#G'%.60)A"$%05%$"-%?-*$)68

An ongoing drought in central and eastern China not seen in 50 or 100 years has dried up many rivers. Downstream provinces near the Three Gorges Dam have been scourged, the Yangtze River is withering, and China’s largest freshwater lake is nearly dry, pushing the ecological system in a large area to the brink of calamity. Human activities are also being badly impacted. Drinking and irrigation water is in short supply, rice crops are dying, and cargo vessels are stranded. And the threat of extinction to one wildlife species highlights all those troubles.

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n2/china-news/

54

<+)4929,679/)97,G94,i).A.(,;((R2,.0,;.R9X0@749B,57.22;.4B,.2,0+9,792@;0,(8,;)4597)45,

B7(@5+0,)4,-(45P)@,*(@40',(8,H.20,<+)4.o2,i).45P),C7(>)4*9,i@49,cJ,!"##$,p6+(0(qr)4+@.s,

K6-2&-6%)6A-'%#,,D0)$%-g06$'%506%760)A"$%6-,&-5%%

55

Key Messages of the IPCC Special Report on Extreme EventsNovember 2011

(1)  Even without　taking　climate　change　into　account,　disaster　risk　will　continue　to　increase　in　many countries as more vulnerable people and assets are exposed to weather extremes.

(2)  Evidence suggests that climate change has changed the magnitude and frequency of some extreme weather and climate events in some regions already.

(3)  Climate change will have significant impacts on the severity and magnitude of climate extremes in the future. As climate change becomes more dramatic, its effect on a range of climate extremes will become increasingly important and will play a more significant role in disaster impacts.

(4) Climate extremes are essentially becoming more unpredictable. (5) Any delay in greenhouse gas mitigation is likely to lead to more severe

and frequent climate extremes in the future.

56

4ºC Global Warming: Regional patterns and timing by Richard Betts et al, Met Office, Hadley Centre, UK

•  ?)66-*$%?TM%-2&''&0*'%#6-%*-#6%P+)$%*0$%#+0/-R%)11-6%-*7%05%JK??%•  Qh?%A,0+#,%I#62&*A%P6-,#@/-%$0%16-D&*7)'$6&#,R%&'%10''&+,-%+8%$"-%MNiN'Y%

-'1-:&#,,8%)*7-6%"&A"%-2&''&0*'%':-*#6&0%

•  [#*8%#6-#'%:0),7%I#62%+8%VNh?%06%206-%•  ="-%L6:@:%:0),7%I#62%+8%Vch?%06%206-%

•  L**)#,%16-:&1&$#@0*%:0),7%7-:6-#'-%+8%MNj%06%206-%&*%2#*8%#6-#'%

•  ?#6+0*%:8:,-%5--7%+#:F'%-W1-:$-7%$0%#::-,-6#$-%I#62&*A%

•  K,#)'&+,-%I06'$%:#'-<%Qh?%+8%MNkN

57

NI.',Ut97, (̂/(77(DO,/.C,ZºC World

58

j922,0+.4,#"f,(8,0+9,

D(7;B,C(C@;.3(4,*.4,(4;',

2@7>)>9,)4,0+9,Zu<G(7;B,,

Kevin Anderson Joachim Schellnhuber James E. Hansen

Tyndall Center, UKPotsdam Climate Impact institute,

GermanyNASA Goddard institute,

USA

<.77')45,<.C.*)0',(8,0+9,

G(7;B,C(C@;.3(4,)4,0+9,

Zu<,G(7;B,)2,;922,0+.4,#,

A);;)(4

!u<,<;)/.09,0.7590,)2,

C792*7)C3(4,8(7,B)2.2097,

(7,5@.7.4099B,B)2.2097

ZºC World

59

PIOMAS Trend Shows That All The Arctic Sea Ice Will Be Gone In Four Years, 2015.

Winters look ice free by about 2030 or 2040.

December

SeptemberAugust, October

NovemberJuly

June

60

J:-D56--%L6:@:%(-#%&*%()22-6%%2#8%+-%I&$"&*%#%7-:#7-C

61

(b) Antarctic Ice Mass Change(a) Greenland Ice Mass Change

Rapid Ice-Mass Loss

62

=&11&*A%9,-2-*$'%#*7%$"-%@2-%-W1-:$-7%506%$"-2%$0%)*7-6A0%2#l06%%$6#*'&@0*%"#'%+--*%+8%X-*$0*%-$%#,

[-,@*A%05%L6:@:%'-#D&:- , , ,,,,,,,,,,,,,E.CC7(P,,#",'9.72M,

.-:#8%05%$"-%S6--*,#*7%&:-%'"--$ , ,,,,,,,,,,,,,E/(79,0+.4,Y"",'9.72M,

?0,,#1'-%05%$"-%!-'$%L*$#6:@:%&:-%'"--$%%%% ,,,,,,,,,,,,,E/(79,0+.4,Y"",'9.72M,

?0,,#1'-%05%$"-%L$,#*@:%$"-620"#,&*-%:&6:),#@0*,,,E.CC7(P,,#",'9.72M,J*:6-#'-%&*%$"-%9,%U&*0%(0)$"-6*%T':&,,#@0*,,,,,,,,,,,,,E.CC7(P,,#",'9.72M,?0,,#1'-%05%$"-%J*7&#*%')22-6%20*'00* ,,,,,,,,,,,,,E.CC7(P,,#",'9.72M,

S6--*&*A%05%$"-%(#"#6#m(#"-,%#*7%7&'6)1@0*%%%%%%%%%%E.CC7(P,,#",'9.72M,,,,,,,05%$"-%!-'$%L56&:#*%20*'00*%.&-+#:F%05%"-%L2#`0*%6#&*506-'$, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,E.CC7(P,,c",'9.72M,

.&-+#:F%05%$"-%E06-#,%>06-'$ , , ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,E.CC7(P,,c",'9.72M,

,

63

6(0943.;,C(;)*'X79;9>.40,3CC)45,9;9/9402,0+.0,

*(@;B,A9,07)55979B,A',5;(A.;,D.7/)45,0+)2,*940@7'J,

D)0+,2+.B)45,)4B)*.345,0+9)7,@4*970.)4,

0+792+(;B2$,, V,

K#''&*A%=&11&*A%K0&*$'S', $̂j940(4,.4B,V$?*+9;;4+@A97

64

XnLb)&,#%()22&$Y%J$#,8Y%So%#*7%[9>!""KJi@;'

「!℃,0.7590」D.2,79*(54)T9B,*;9.7;',A',C(;)3*.;,;9.B972$65

e%,j]U`@);.,I9*;.7.3(4,!""K

N!-%6-:0A*&'-%$"-%+60#7%':&-*@Z:%/&-I%$"#$%$"-%&*:6-#'-%&*%A,0+#,%#/-6#A-%$-21-6#$)6-%#+0/-%16-%&*7)'$6&#,%,-/-,%0)A"$%*0$%$0%-W:--7'%Mh?C%

E-:#)'-%$"&'%A,0+#,%:"#,,-*A-%:#*%0*,8%+-%2-$%+8%#%A,0+#,%6-'10*'-Y%I-%6-&$-6#$-%0)6%I&,,&*A*-''%$0%'"#6-%I&$"%#,,%:0)*$6&-'%$"-%A0#,%05%#:"&-/&*A%#$%,-#'$%#%cNj%6-7):@0*%05%A,0+#,%-2&''&0*'%+8%MNcNY%6-:0A*&'&*A%$"#$%$"&'%&21,&-'%$"#$%A,0+#,%-2&''&0*'%*--7%$0%1-#F%#'%'00*%#'%10''&+,-%#*7%7-:,&*-%$"-6-%#p-6C%

L'%1#6$%05%$"&'Y%I-%#,'0%')1106$%#%A0#,%05%7-/-,01-7%:0)*$6&-'%6-7):&*A%-2&''&0*'%05%A6--*%"0)'-%A#'-'%&*%#AA6-A#$-%+8%oNj%06%206-%+8%MNcN%:021#6-7%$0%ViiN%06%206-%6-:-*$%8-#6'f

66

_#1#*G'%%9W%K6&2-%2&*&'$-6Y%%[6C%q)F&0%;L=TqL[L%7-:,#6-7%%

?9C09/A97,LJ!""K

Mcj%6-7):@0*%05%S6--*%;0)'-%S#'%

92&''&0*%+8%MNMN

67

#KK"　　!"""　　!"#"　　!"!"　　!"Y"　　!"Z"　　!"c"　　　　　　　　　　　!#""　　　　　　!#c"

#!"％

#""％

%"％

d"％

Z"％

!"％

"％

eVe,H/)22)(42,

#KK"＝#""％

H/)22)(4,6.0+D.',499B9B,0(,R99C,!℃　0.7590

I9>9;(C9B,

c％79B@*3(4

:4,!""%～#!,

G(7;B,

69.R)45,D)0+)4,

#"v#c,'9.72,

,,

I9>9;(C9B,

!c～Z"％,79B@*3(4,

A',!"!"

G(7;B,

c"f79B@*3(4,

A',!"c"

I9>9;(C9B,

%"～Kc％,79B@*3(4,

,A',!"c"

G(7;B,

%"f79B@*3(4,

A',!#""

,

I9>9;(C9B,

w97(9/)22)(4,

A',!#"",

G(7;B,

w97(9/)22)(4,

)4,!!*,

r-60D:#6+0*%9:0*028%&'%0)6%Z*#,%S0#,C

68

K6010'-7%?TM%92&''&0*G'%4-7):@0*%4#$-%%+8%MNcN%%

&'%cNj%?021#6-7%I&$"%$"-%ViiN%,-/-,

<h!,9/)22)(4,)4,!"#" YY$c,A);;)(4,0(42

,,,,,,,〃,,,,　　　　 #KK" !!$",A);;)(4,0(42

^+94J,,YY$c,A);;)(4,0(42,　　⇒　　##,A);;)(4,0(42,,　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　L,20'$%Vms%05%%

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　$"-%16-'-*$%/#,)-%%%

69

! 697,*.C)0.,A@B590,(8,9/)22)(4,x,Lc",A);;)(4,0(4qd$%,

A);;)(4,x,##",0(4,

! S@B590,;)893/9,923/.09B,A',.22@/)45,0+9,C97,*.C)0.,<h!,

9/)22)(4,.0,!""%,8(7,9.*+,*(@407'

?0)*$68 q-#6'

?"&*# MQ

](L k

J*7&# oo

S-62#*8 VN

_#1#* VV

4)''&# i ref. WBGU(2009)

<@/@;.3>9,U;;(D.A;9,<h!,H/)22)(42,E!"#"X!"c"M,0(,R99C,0+9,!℃ 0.7590,D)0+,0+9,C7(A.A);)0',dLf,)2,Lc",A);;)(4,0(4,

70

Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissionsSusan Solomon, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti and Pierre Friedlingstein PNAS (2009)

The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentrations is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emission stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years.

71

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns. 2011

If fossil fuel infrastructure is not rapidly changed, the world will ‘loss for ever’ the chance to avoid dangerous climate change

by Fiona Harvey, environment correspondent, gurdian, UK

If the world is to stay below 2ºC of warming, which scientists regard as the limit of safety, then emissions must be held to no more than 450ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere; the level is currently 390ppm. But the world’s existing infrastructure is already producing 80% of that “carbon budget”, according to the IEA’s analysis. This gives an ever-narrowing gap in which to reform the global economy on to a low-carbon footing. By 2017, there will be no room for manoeuvre at all.

IEA＝International Energy Agency72

J*$-6*#@0*#,%4-'0)6:-%K#*-,%K)+,&:#@0*'

73

V < F h 6 ? <:

F. W5 U;, ?)

_ <. b9

^) <7, W4 <@

S b U7 S7

non-metal elements

elements of hope

critical elements

j) S9 ?*, 1 <( F), w4 e.

e9 U2 ?7 - w7 FA W( 6eW

U5 <B :4 ?4 ?A 9̂ S. &HW

.̂ G &9 U@ V5 ^) 6A S)

frugal elements

Metal mineral Scarcity: A call for managed austerity and the elements of hope by A.M. Diederen The elements of hope

a group of abundantly available elements for sustainable substitution The frugal elements

Less abundant but still plentiful elements. These elements should only be applied in mass for applications in which their unique properties are essential.

The critical elements These elements should be saved for the most essential and critical applications.74

.-:0)1,&*A%($#$)'%05%[-$#,%?0*')21@0*%5602%9:0*02&:%S60I$"

!06,7%I&,,%*--7%#%5-I%@2-'%206-%2-$#,,&:%%%%%6-'0)6:-'%#$%MNcN%$"#*%16-'-*$C%%>06-:#'@*A%05%$"-%:0*')21@0*%05%2-$#,'%#$%MNcN%%>-Y%[0Y%!Y%?0Y%K$Y%K7%%%K6-'-*$%6-'0)6:-'%I&,,%+-%%%% % % %%%-W"#)'$-7%:021,-$-,8%

%U&Y%[*Y%X&Y%J*Y%S# %%%="-%:0*')21@0*%I&,,%%%% % % %%%&*:6-#'-%206-%$"#*%70)+,&*A%%

%?)Y%K+Y%r*Y%L)Y%LAY%(*%%="-%:0*')21@0*%I&,,%%% % % %%%-W:--7%-/-*%&$'%6-'0)6:-%+#'-

d0"2-&%;#,#7#Y%[#'#*06&%("&2#7#%#*7%d&80'"&%Jl&2#%U#@0*#,%J*'@$)$-%05%2#$-6&#,'%(:&-*:-Y%=')F)+#Y%_LKLU

75

Annual production

Concentration in the Earth’s CrustIndex of the extent of depletion

Total Material Requirement for 1kg Production (ton)

Index of the environmental burden for metal production

;0I%$0%-'@2#$-%$"-%-W$-*$%05%7-1,-@0*%#*7%%$"-%-*/&60*2-*$#,%+)67-*%506%2-$#,%1607):@0*

=

=

Ecological Rucksack

76

by Dr. Kohmei HALADA (NIMS, Japan)

Ratio of (annual production /Concentration in the crust) to Fe, where the ratio for Fe is set to 100

Total Material Requirement for 1 kg production (ton)

Increase of annual production (2009/1999) (%)

b9 #"" "$""% #dc

<( #c "$d# !#K

F) ##d "$!d #!c

U; # "$"c #dY

<@ #J%c# "$Yd #!c

w4 KcK "$"Z #Y#

U@ #!JYK! ##"" #"#

6A dJ%cc "$"Y #!%

V5 YYL ! cd

<B KK# cY" ##%

60 YLc cY" ##%

:7 Z Z"" Z"

&+ YZ !Y"" %c

?A KJ%d# "$"d #Yd 77

Three different scenarios for resource use up to 2050

Scenario 1 Business-as-usual (BAU) BAU scenario assumes that developing countries adopt growth and development strategies aimed at ‘catching up’ with the resource consumption

patterns of industrialized countries, this will result in the tripling of global annual resource extraction and consumption by 2050. Specifically, this means more than doubling biomass use, while almost quadrupling fossil fuel use and tripling the annual use of metals (ores) and construction minerals.

Scenario 2 Moderate contraction and convergence Assumes substantial structural change in the dominant industrial production and

consumption patterns. This scenario would require substantial economic structural change and massive investments in innovations for resource decoupling.

Scenario 3 Tough contraction and convergence This scenario does not raise global resource consumption above the 2000 levels, and can hardly be addressed as a possible strategic goal by politicians.

78

Table; Metabolic scales and rates, overview of scenario analysis ref. IRP Report

E#'-,&*-

(:-*#6&0%V<%S@2)4922,.2,

@2@.;

(:-*#6&0%M<%W(B97.09,*(407.*3(4,

.4B,*(4>97594*9

(:-*#6&0%s<%(̂@5+,

*(407.*3(4,.4B,

*(4>97594*9

-9.7 !""" !"c" !"c" !"c"

!06,7%101),#@0*%ES);;)(42M

d$" %$K %$K %$K

!06,7%[-$#+0,&:%6#$-%E (̂42q*.C)0.q'9.7M,

% #d % c$c

!06,7%2-$#+0,&:%':#,-%ES);;)(4,0(42q'9.7M

ZK #Z# L" ZK

[-$#+0,&:%6#$- :4B@207).;)T9B,V)5+,B942)0'

#Y #Y d$c c

:4B@207).;)T9B,j(D,B942)0'

!Z !Z #! %

I9>9;(C)45,V)5+,B942)0'

c #Y d$c c

I9>9;(C)45,j(D,B942)0'

K !Z #! %79

="-%9:0*02&:'%05%9:0'8'$-2'%#*7%E&07&/-6'&$8%P=99ER

80

81

=0%'#/-%$"-%2&,,&0*'%05%+&0'1-:&-'Y%,

,

E#M 0+9,2@78.*9,09/C97.0@79,)4*79.29,2+(@;B,A9,2@CC79229B,,

,;922,0+.4,#$c℃$,

,

.4B,

,

E!M 0+9,D.7/)45,7.09,2+(@;B,A9,2@CC79229B,,

,,,,,;922,0+.4,"$"c℃qB9*.B9$,

,

U*0@.;;'J,0+9,D.7/)45,7.09,)2,4(D,"$Z%℃qB9*.B9,,

)4,0+9,.7*3*,795)(4$

82

J9L%%($6#$-A8%506%M℃mQcN112%+8%MNsN%798$,G(7;B,H4975',h@0;((RE!""LM

PVR9*-6A8%(#/&*A%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%EZ"fM,!fq'9.7,PMR?#6+0*%?#1$)6-%#*7%($06#A-E!#fM,920.A;)2+,Zd",<<?,PsRU):,-#6%K0I-6%K,#*$%%%%%%%%%%%%%%E#dfM,<(4207@*0,!Yc,C;.402,PQR4-*-I#+,-%9*-6A8%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%E#KfM,,,,,,V'B7(,,,,,,,)4*79.29,8.*0(7　　 !,

,,,,,S)(/.22,,,,,,,,,,,,〃 　 #",

,,,,,G)4B,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,〃,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,!",

,,,,,e9(0+97/.;,,,,,〃,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Z,

,,,,,2(;.7,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,〃,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,#Y",,

PcRE&05)-,%-$:%%%%%%%%%%

U-:-''#68%4-7):@0*%05%S;S%

83

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

!"##$c$d

!"##$Z$#"

A place of refuge of Fukushima prefectural

They temporarily returned to home putting on protective clothing.

Collapse of the myth of Nuclear Safety

84

Complex Disaster of Earthquake Disaster and Severe Accident of Nuclear Power Plant was predicted

Prof. Kiyoo MOGI Professor Emeritus of the University of Tokyo

Prof. Katsuhiko ISHIBASHI Professor Emeritus of the Kobe University

85

&98y,,0+9,W909(7(;(5)*.;,U594*',(8,i.C.4,

Distribution of Earthquakes in the World Map

86

Full Solar Supply of Industrialized Countries ‐ The Example Japan

by Harry Lehman (www. Energyrichjapan.info)

Using baseline data from 1999, “the Energy Rich Japan” report shows how a combination of the best energy efficiency technologies available today, and a massive investment in renewable energy, could ultimately provide Japan with 100% of its energy needs from renewables – including transportation fuels – without expensive and environmentally damaging imported fossil and nuclear fuels. Rather than seeking energy security through its hugely expensive and polluting nuclear program, for example, Japan could instead build its own renewable energy industry. As an energy – hungry and supposedly “resource-poor” country, Japan could make this transition to clean, renewable energy without any sacrifice in living standards or industrial capacity. Six scenarios of how this might happen are outlined in the report, all of which can provide 100% renewable energy for Japan.

87

水素

太陽熱

工業コジェネ（熱）

工業コジェネ（電気）

住宅コジェネ（熱）

住宅コジェネ（電気）

地熱発電 風力太陽光発電

b@;;,?(;.7,?@CC;',(8,:4B@207).;)T9B,<(@407)92,,

l,^+9,HP./C;9,i.C.4,

A',I7$,V.77',j9+/.4

88

ソフトエネルギーパスの著者,

エイモリー・ロビンス博士,

の新しい著書,,

アメリカは!"c"年までに,

脱石油、脱石炭、脱原子力達成可能、%"％<h!削減、,c兆ドルの経済利益が結論,

89

!-%*--7%*-I%[L.%'$6#$-A&-'t

h;B,WUI,x ・W@0@.;,U22@79B,I9207@*3(4,

,,8(7,F@*;9.7,W)22);92,

F9D,WUI2 ・W@0@.;,U22@79B,I9/.097).;)T.3(4,

8(7,&9B@*3(4,(8,&92(@7*9,*(42@/C3(4,

・W@0@.;,U22@79B,I9*.7A(4)T.3(4,

8(7,&9B@*3(4,(8,<.7A(4XI)(P)B9,H/)22)(42

The Mitigation, Adaptation and Development (H. J. Schellnhuber)

90