Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern Virginia and Washington Area Regional...
If you can't read please download the document
Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern Virginia and Washington Area Regional Economic Outlook David E. Versel, AICP Senior Research Associate
Fairfax Committee of 100 February 24, 2015 The Northern
Virginia and Washington Area Regional Economic Outlook David E.
Versel, AICP Senior Research Associate Center for Regional Analysis
George Mason University
Slide 2
The national recovery has been slow and fragile, but is
pointing in the right direction
Slide 3
Quarters After Trough % Change in GDP* Recession Recovery
Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions Sources: Bureau of Economic
Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 1992 or 2009 Chained
Dollars
Slide 4
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year (000s) Dec = +
3.0M Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted),
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 5
U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Dec 2013 Dec 2014 (000s)
Total = 2,951 Ranked by Size in 2014 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
Slide 6
Initial Claims for Unemployment 4-Week Moving Average Jan 24
265 Source: Department of Labor (000s)
Slide 7
U.S. Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics January 8, 2015 Dec = 5.6 %
IHS FCST 14 6.2 15 5.5 16 5.3 17 5.2 18 5.3 19 5.3
Slide 8
The recession and Federal spending cutbacks have dramatically
reshaped the regional economy
Slide 9
WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and
Recovery (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally
Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Total -178Total 244 Aug
2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Dec 2014
Slide 10
The GRP* Effects of Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan
Area, Aug 08-Aug 14 (in billions of current year $s)
_____________________________ Job Change Average GRP Value -
177,700 - $26,760,932,000 + 231,100 + $24,730,493,000 Net Effect +
53,400 - $2,030,439,000 ____________________________ Source: GMU
Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product
Slide 11
Federal Government Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional
Analysis Jul 2010 = 387,500 Dec 2014 = 366,800 (000s) Annual Data
Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Slide 12
Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, FY 1980-2014
$ Billions | | | < 0110 = $564.1 B | TOTAL = $1,164.9 Billion
Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and
USAspending.gov 2011 79.8 2013 69.1 2014 71.2 76.3 2012
Slide 13
Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington
Metropolitan Area, 2010-2014 Federal Procurement Outlays declined
16% between FY 2010 and FY 2013. Federal employment has declined
since peaking in July 2010, losing 20,700 jobs or 5.3%. Federal
payroll is declining and will continue to decline as the workforce
shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger
workers.
Slide 14
Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center
for Regional Analysis Oct 2012 = 712,800 Dec 2014 = 704,800 (000s)
Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014
Slide 15
Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change by Wage Category
between 2008 to 2013 Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
Slide 16
The Washington area economy has struggled in the past two
years, particularly in Northern Virginia
Slide 17
The Economic Performance of Maryland, DC and the Commonwealth
of Virginia in 2013 State GSP Growth 2012-2013US Ranking US1.84%
Virginia0.06% 48 th Maryland0.01% 49 th DC* - 0.49% 51 st WMSA -
0.8% 330 th **
_________________________________________________________________________
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *DCs economy also declined
0.46% in 2012. **out of 381 metro areas
Slide 18
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: 2012 2013 (000s) Washington
+ 30,300 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally
Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 19
15 Largest Job Markets GRP Percent Change: 2012 2013 Washington
-0.8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
Slide 20
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Dec 2013 Dec 2014 (000s)
Washington +20,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not
Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 21
15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Washington
+0.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted),
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 22
Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2014 (000s) Annual Data
Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional
Analysis
Slide 23
Job Change by Sector Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Washington MSA (000s)
Total = 20,800 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally
Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 24
Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, 2002-2014 (000s) Annual
Data Annual Month over Year 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Bureau
of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for
Regional Analysis
Slide 25
Job Change by Sector Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Northern Virginia (000s)
Total 12,100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally
Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 26
7.2 DC 5.6 U.S. 4.6 SMD 4.5 MSA 3.7 - NVA Unemployment Rates in
the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2007-2014 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally
Adjusted)
Slide 27
15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Dec 2014 %
US 5.6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally
Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
Slide 28
The regional housing market is struggling but could be
worse
Slide 29
Dec = +16.4% Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes
Month-Over-Year 2000 2014, MSA Source: Metropolitan Regional
Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total
monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month
plus sales during the month.
Slide 30
Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Dec 2014 12-Month
Moving Average Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems
(MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 31
Total Listings Per Sale Dec Each Year LDN PG FFX ARL DC MONT PW
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU
Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 32
Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $386.0K Dec 2014
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU
Center for Regional Analysis (000s)
Slide 33
Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing
Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2010 2011 2012 2013
2014 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU
Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 34
Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All
Housing Types % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems
(MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual
Change by Month 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Slide 35
Growth will return slowly and will look different
Slide 36
Oil Prices $ per barrel $/barrel Source: IHS Economics January
8, 2015 Forecast > > > > >
Slide 37
Consumer Prices 2001 - 2019 Forecast > > > % Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics January 8, 2015
% U.S. Economic Performance Source: Bureau of Economic
Analysis, IHS Economics January 8, 2015 Forecast > > >
>
Slide 40
U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 2007 2015 %
Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics January
8, 2015
Slide 41
2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving
Activities 34.8% Non-Local Business 12.0 % Total Federal 39.8%
Procurement 19.1% Assn 1.8% Hosp. 2.1% Intl 3.5% Other 1.5% Other
Federal 10.7 % Health/Ed. 4.5% Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 42
2019 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving
Activities 38.2% Non-Local Business 17.6% Total Federal 28.8%
Procurement 13.1% Assn 1.8% Hosp. 2.8% Intl 4.0% Other 0.6% Other
Federal 8.4% Health/Ed. 6.2% Fed Wages & Salaries 7.3% Source:
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Slide 43
Year U.S. WMSA 2013 2.2- 0.8 2014 2.4 0.7 2015 3.1 1.4 2016 2.7
1.9 2017 2.7 2.4 2018 2.4 2.9 2019 2.8 3.2 Sources: IHS Economics,
Inc. January 2015 ; GMU Center for Regional Analysis Washington
Metropolitan Area and U.S. Economic Growth 2012-2019 (annual
percent real change)
Slide 44
% Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,
Forecast: January 2015 U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 2007 2015
2019 (Annual % Change) Washington U.S.
Slide 45
Principal Sources of Job and GRP Growth in the Washington Area,
2014-2019 (in thousands) Growth Job % of TotalAverage Value Sectors
Change Job Change Added per Job* Prof. & Bus. Ser. 114.4 48.3
$157,969 Construction 48.8 20.5 $111,992 Education/Health 28.7 12.1
$72,162 Hospitality Services 27.1 11.4 $51,110 State and Local 20.2
8.5 $81,736 Sub-Total 239.2 100.8 $119,749 Overall Total 236.9
100.0 $154,131 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional
Analysis *in 2014$s
Slide 46
Job and GRP Gains and Losses for the Washington Areas Other
Sectors, 2014-2019 (in thousands) Job % of Total Average Value
Change Job Change Added per Job* Federal Govt - 22.3 - 9.4 $185,804
Retail Trade 0.5 0.2 $64,478 Other Services 2.6 1.1 $86,150
Financial Services - 0.1 0.0 $620,922 Information Services 2.0 0.9
$410,371 Manufacturing 0.0 0.0 $249,934 Transportation 8.8 3.7
$203,015 Wholesale Trade 6.2 2.6 $215,783 Sub-Totals - 2.3 - 0.9
$197,811 Overall Total 236.9 100.0 $154,131 Sources: IHS Economics,
Inc.; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 2014 $s
Slide 47
Economic struggles present an ongoing challenge to local
budgets
Slide 48
Real Estate Property Taxes as Share of Total General Fund
Revenues, FY2015 Budgets
Slide 49
Percent Change in Real Property Assessments, 2009-2014
Slide 50
Nonresidential Shares of Property Tax Base, 2005 to 2014
Slide 51
Percent Change in Nonresidential Assessed Valuation by Property
Type 2009-2014
Slide 52
SUMMARY: The national recovery has been slow and fragile, but
is pointing in the right direction The recession and Federal
spending cutbacks have dramatically reshaped the regional economy
The Washington area economy has struggled in the past two years,
particularly in NoVa The regional housing market is struggling but
could be worse Growth will return slowly and will look different
Economic struggles present an ongoing challenge to local
budgets
Slide 53
Three Key Challenges for The Regions Future Shortage/mismatch
of labor for future jobs Limited supply of suitable housing for
migrating workers and newly formed households Need to invest in
regional infrastructure, especially transportation
