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Facing Climate Change
Dianne SaxeEnvironmental Commissioner of OntarioNovember 24, 2016U of T Environmental Finance Advisory Committee
Who is the ECO?• Impartial and independent• Guardian of the Environmental Bill of Rights• Legislative watchdog on:
• Energy conservation• Greenhouse gas emissions (climate)• Environmental protection
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Really Good Reports
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ENERGY CONSERVATION ENVIRONMENTGREENHOUSE GAS
ECO.ON.CA
2016 climate report1: Urgency2: 2014 Emissions: Official Inventory3: Emissions: If we count everything…4: Cap and Trade5: Spending the Money6: Climate Change Action Plan7: Knowledge + Action = Hope
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1: Climate Urgency
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Yes Virginia there is a CO2 hockey stick
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Plus ~40% CO2 Dissolved in the Oceans• CO2 + H2O = acid• Shallow ocean acidification up 30%• Hampers calcification (building skeletons and shells)• Damages reefs• Reduces production of oxygen
• 50% of what we breathe
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More Greenhouse Gases Trap More Heat
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January to August 2016
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So: Average Air Temperature
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Is Average Air Temp. the Problem? • Average v. Extremes• Air v. Land, Water, Ice• Temperature v. CO2
• 40 year lag
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CO2 Throughout Human History• Until 1750 260 to 280 ppm• 1750 278 ppm• 1860 280 ppm• 1988 350 ppm• 2016 404 ppm
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1976
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CarbonBlanketisaSlowCooker
93% of the Trapped Heat in the Oceans
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Accelerating Ice Loss
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20th Century “Normal” is Gone
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So Sea Level Rises
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Warmer Oceans Feed Wilder Storms
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Canada’s Winter, 2015/16
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Ontario Warming Faster Than Average• Number of frost-free days in Ontario increased by 18 days between 1979 and 2009.
18 days
over 30 years
Feeling the Heat: GHG Progress Report 2015: p. 371199
Catastrophic Insured Losses - Canada
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(201
5 do
llars
)
2: Where Are We Now?Ontario Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 2014
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Current Energy Stats• 80% fossil fuels• Every fossil fuel, except coal, is
up since 2007
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Ontario GHG Emissions
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4: Cap and TradeReady, Set, Go!
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1. New Climate Act• Climate Change Mitigation and Low-Carbon Economy Act
• Legal requirement to cut GHGs, from 1990 baseline:• 15% by 2020: 155 Mt• 37% by 2030: 115 Mt• 80% by 2050: 36 Mt
• 80% enough for 2℃?
• Fossil fuel costs to rise• Proceeds to Greenhouse Gas Reduction Account
• To be spent as per Action Plan
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Ontario GHG Emissions and Path to Targets
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2. Cap and Trade Basic Theory 1• To reduce GHG emissions, we must put a price on them
• GHG emitters would emit less if they had to pay for the privilege
• Two main options:• Carbon tax• Cap and trade
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Cap and Trade Basic Theory 2CCAAPP:• Government issues capped number of allowances• Emitters must obtain and submit allowances to match each
emission• Cap drops with time• Allowances become scarce, price rises• It becomes cheaper for emitters to reduce emissions than to buy
allowances
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Cap and Trade Basic Theory 3TTRRAADDEE:• If some can reduce more cheaply than others
• For high cost emitters, cheaper to pay others to reduce• Should reduce total cost of emission reductions
• How?• Emitters buy or sell allowances or offsets
• Secondary market2299
The Critical Assumption• TThhee ccaapp wwiillll mmaakkee aalllloowwaanncceess ssccaarrccee• Therefore prices will predictably rise• Therefore emitters will reduce emissions
• Reductions at least cost?
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Linking with California?• The key purpose of linking:
• Get the same GHG reductions• At lower compliance costs for Ontario emitters
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Ontario emitters may often find it cheaper to buy allowances / credits from California, than
to reduce emissions in Ontario
Why Cheaper?• California allowances are:• Plentiful• Cheap:
• Around floor price AND
• Surplus:• Offered for sale, but not purchased
• But will Trump agree?
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Options for Filling the Gap
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Potential Offsets• GHG reductions outside cap
• Under consideration:• Methane capture• NO2/ fertilizer• ODS/ refrigerants capture • Forest /Afforestation• Urban forests• Livestock• Conservation cropping
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5: Spending the MoneyGreenhouse Gas Reduction Account
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Why?• To reach GHG emission targets, Ontario needs major new emission
reductions• Cap and trade won’t do it, unless carbon price is high• What will?
AAccttiioonn PPllaann!!
• How to fund the Action Plan?
GGGGRRAA!!3366
6: Climate Change Action Plan
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5 Year “Action Plan”• More of a direction than a plan• No precision in the numbers• Compromise document
• After 44 drafts, several leaks
• Details being worked out after
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Good Ideas That Will Take Time• Land-use and transit• Green bank• Cleantech companies
• Reductions:• When?• Where?• How big?
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Big Claims for 2020• Subsidizing the Global Adjustment – 3 Mt
• Per ECO - no plausible additional reductions
• Renewable fuel regulation – 2 Mt• Per ECO - plausible, requires careful regulation of environmental effects• Could have high per tonne cost
• Industrial transformation - 2.5 Mt• Per ECO
• no clear mechanism • cannot quantify
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7: Knowledge + Action = HopeNo one can do everything, but everyone can do something
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Great Progress• Encouraging international, national, and provincial progress• Paris Agreement – in force on November 4• Kigali Amendment to Montreal Protocol – drastic reduction of
hydrofluorocarbons• Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation
• Despite US election…
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What Can I Do?No one can do everything, but everyone can do something1. Be optimistic2. Be heard3. Be curious4. Be passionate5. Be informed6. Be canny7. Be caring
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Joel Pett Editorial Cartoon used with the permission of Joel Pett and the Cartoonist Group. All right reserved.
