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Table of Contents Forecast Highlights (2016 – 2036) .............................................................................................. 1

Review of 2015 ........................................................................................................................... 3

Glossary of Acronyms ................................................................................................................. 4

Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... 5

FAA Aerospace Forecasts .......................................................................................................... 6

Economic Environment ........................................................................................................... 7

U.S. Airlines............................................................................................................................ 9

Domestic Market ................................................................................................................. 9

International Market ...........................................................................................................15

Cargo .................................................................................................................................19

General Aviation ....................................................................................................................21

FAA Operations .....................................................................................................................26

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet ..............................................................................................28

Unmanned Aircraft Systems ..................................................................................................30

Education, Outreach, and Research ..................................................................................30

Exemptions and Authorizations ..........................................................................................30

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast ................................................................................30

Commercial Forecast .........................................................................................................31

Commercial Space Transportation ........................................................................................34

Risks to the Forecast .............................................................................................................39

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios ............................................................................ 43

Scenario Assumptions .......................................................................................................43

Alternative Forecasts .............................................................................................................47

Enplanements ....................................................................................................................47

Revenue Passenger Miles .................................................................................................48

Available Seat Mile ............................................................................................................48

Load Factor .......................................................................................................................49

Yield ..................................................................................................................................50

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy ....................................................................................... 55

Appendix C: Forecast Tables ................................................................................................... 57

Forecast Highlights (2016 – 2036)

Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility that was associated with these cy-cles was thought by many to be a structural feature of an industry that was capital inten-sive but cash poor. However the great re-cession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental change in the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. Air carriers fine-tuned their business models to minimize losses by low-ering operating costs, eliminating unprofita-ble routes, and grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating rev-enues, carriers initiated new services that customers were willing to purchase and started charging separately for services that were historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry experienced an un-precedented period of consolidation with four major mergers in five years. These changes along with capacity discipline ex-hibited by carriers have resulted in a fifth consecutive year of profitability for the in-dustry in 2015. Looking ahead there is op-timism that the industry has been trans-formed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits.

As the economy recovers from the most se-rious economic downturn since World War II and the slowest expansion in recent history, aviation will continue to grow over the long run. Fundamentally, over the medium and long term, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity. The 2016 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.1 percent per year, slightly faster than last year’s fore-cast. The sharp decline in the price of oil in 2015 is a catalyst for a short lived uptick in

passenger growth in 2016. Although oil prices are projected to fall to around $43 per barrel in 2016, our forecast assumes that they will rise thereafter to exceed $100 by 2023 and $150 by the end of the forecast, keeping a lid on U.S. economic growth dur-ing the same period. There are a number of headwinds that are buffeting the global economy – the fall in oil prices, recession in Russia and Brazil and inconsistent perfor-mance in other emerging economies, a “hard landing” in China, and lack of further stimulus in the advanced economies. The uncertainty over the future course of oil prices is just one more item on the list. Alt-hough the U.S. economy has managed to avoid a recession, a prolonged period of faster economic growth (e.g. > 3%) may not be forthcoming.

System traffic in revenue passenger miles (RPMs) is projected to increase by 2.6 per-cent a year between 2016 and 2036. Do-mestic RPMs are forecast to grow 2.1 per-cent a year while International RPMs are forecast to grow almost twice as fast at 3.5 percent a year. U.S. carrier system capaci-ty measure in available seat miles (ASMs) is forecast to grow in line with the increases in demand. The number of seats per aircraft is getting bigger, especially in the regional jet market, where we expect the number of 50 seat regional jets to fall to just a handful by 2023, replaced by 70-90 seat aircraft.

Although the U.S. and global economy con-tinued to sputter in 2015, stable demand and lower energy prices resulted in record profits for U.S. airlines. U.S. carrier profita-bility should remain steady or increase as the recovery leads to strengthening demand

1

and increased revenues, while lower energy prices keep operating costs in check. Over the long term, we see a competitive and profitable aviation industry characterized by increasing demand for air travel and airfares growing more slowly than inflation, reflecting over the long term a growing U.S. economy.

The long term outlook for general aviation is favorable, led by gains in turbine aircraft activity. The active general aviation fleet is forecast to increase 0.2 percent a year be-tween 2015 and 2036, equating to an abso-lute increase in the fleet of about 7,000 units. While steady growth in both GDP and corporate profits results in continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the larg-est segment of the fleet – fixed wing piston aircraft continues to shrink over the fore-cast. Although fleet growth is minimal, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.2 per-cent per year through 2036, as growth in

turbine, rotorcraft, and experimental hours more than offset a decline in fixed wing pis-ton hours.

With increasing numbers of regional and business jets in the nation’s skies, fleet mix changes, and carriers consolidating opera-tions in their large hubs, we expect in-creased activity growth which has the po-tential to increase controller workload. Op-erations at FAA and contract towers are forecast to increase 0.9 percent a year over the forecast period with commercial activity growing at five times the rate of non-commercial activity. The growth in U.S. air-line and business aviation activity is the primary driver. Large and medium hubs will see much faster increases than small and non-hub airports, largely due to the com-mercial nature of their operations.

2

Review of 2015

Despite slow economic growth at home and abroad, 2015 was a pretty good year for U.S. aviation. Stable demand, falling yields, and falling costs added up to a year of rec-ord profits for the U.S. airline industry. The shift in focus from market share to boosting returns on invested capital has resulted in something the industry has rarely seen – sustained profitability. The U.S. airline in-dustry has become more nimble in adjusting capacity to seize opportunities or minimize losses. U.S. airlines continue to refine strat-egies for developing additional revenue streams such as charging fees for services that used to be included in airfare (e.g. meal service), as well as for charging for services that were not previously available (e.g. pre-mium boarding and fare lock fees). The im-pact from these initiatives gives reason for optimism as the industry (passenger and cargo carriers combined) posted profits for the sixth consecutive year in 2015.

Demand for air travel in 2015 grew at the fastest pace since 2007 despite modest economic growth in the U.S. In 2015 sys-tem revenue passenger miles (RPMs) in-creased 3.8 percent as enplanements in-creased at the same rate. Domestic RPMs were up 4.8 percent while enplanements were up by 4.2 percent. International RPMs increased by just 2.2 percent as enplane-ments, negatively impacted by the slow-down in China, recession in Brazil and Rus-sia, and exchange rate fluctuations, in-creased only 1.6 percent. The system-wide load factor fell 0.1 points to 83.3 percent.

Yields fell for the first time in five years. In domestic markets, falling oil prices and rap-id expansion by ultra-low cost carriers such

as Spirit and Allegiant led to a 1.6 percent decline. International yield fell 4.8 percent, impacted by weak demand and currency fluctuations. Despite falling yields U.S. air-lines posted record profits in FY 2015 as falling energy prices more than offset reve-nue weakness from falling yields. Data for FY 2015 show that the reporting passenger carriers had a combined operating profit of $24.1 billion (compared to a $14.9 billion operating profit for FY 2014). The network carriers reported combined operating profits of $17.3 billion while the low cost carriers reported combined operating profits of $6.0 billion, with all carriers posting profits.

The general aviation market showed contin-uing improvements in single engine piston and business jet segments, while declines in turboprop and multi-engine piston seg-ments translated into a downturn in ship-ments. Overall deliveries were down by 3.1 percent in calendar year (CY) 2015; even though U.S. billings increased 2.4 percent to $12.0 billion. General aviation activity at FAA and contract tower airports recorded a 0.3 percent decline in 2015 as itinerant ac-tivity fell 0.7 percent, more than offsetting a 0.1 percent increase in local operations.

Total operations at FAA and contract towers rose in 2015 by 0.2 percent, the first in-crease in activity since 2007. Air carrier ac-tivity increased by 5.7 percent, more than offsetting declines in the air taxi, general aviation, and military categories. Activity at large hubs rose by 0.7 percent, while medi-um hub activity increased by 0.6 percent. Small/non-hub airport activity was flat in 2015 compared to the prior year.

3

Glossary of Acronyms

Acronym Term ASMs Available Seat Miles ATP Air Transport Pilot BVLOS Beyond Visual Line of Sight COA Certificate of Operation Authorization COE Certificate of Excellence COMSTAC Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee CY Calendar Year ELI Elliptical Earth Orbit FAA Federal Aviation Administration FY Fiscal Year GA General Aviation GAMA General Aviation Manufacturers Association GDP Gross Domestic Product GSO Geosynchronous Orbit ISS International Space Station LEO Low Earth Orbit LSA Light Sport Aircraft MEO Medium Earth Orbit NAS National Airspace System NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NGSO Non-Geosynchronous Orbit NPRM Notice of Public Proposed Rulemaking PCE Personal Consumption Expenditure RAC Refiners’ Acquisition Cost RPMs Revenue Passenger Miles RTMs Revenue Ton Miles sUAS Small Unmanned Aircraft System(s) TRACON Terminal Radar Approach Control TRB Transportation Research Board UAS Unmanned Aircraft System(s) USD United States Dollar

4

Acknowledgements

This document was prepared by the Forecasts and Performance Analysis Division (APO-100), Office of Aviation Policy and Plans, under the direction of Mr. Roger D. Schaufele, Jr.

The following people may be contacted for further information:

Section Contact Name Phone Number Economic Environment Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 Commercial Air Carriers

• Passenger Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 Katherine Lizotte (202) 267-3302

• Cargo Nick Miller (202) 267-3309 General Aviation

• Forecasts H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070 • Survey data H. Anna Barlett (202) 267-4070

FAA Workload Measures

• Forecasts Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306 • Data Roger Schaufele (202) 267-3306

Unmanned Aircraft Systems Michael Lukacs (202) 267-9641 Commercial Space Mary Carolyn Thies Becker (202) 267-8863 APO Websites

• Forecasts and statistical publications

http://www.faa.gov/data_statistics

• APO databases http://aspm.faa.gov

Email for APO staff First name.last name@FAA.gov

5

FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2016-2036

6

Economic Environment

In the near term, IHS Global Insight projects that world economic growth will remain sub-par, below 3% a year for the next two years. While growth remains sluggish to steady for the United States and Europe, the rest of the world is struggling and will continue to do so. In the United States, consumer spending is solid, fueled by lower oil prices and steady job growth while in 2015 Europe saw its best performance since 2011 as central bank stimulus and low oil and com-modity prices provided the basis for growth. Japan’s economy contracted in late 2015 and shows few signs of robust recovery any

time soon. In emerging markets, China is moving into a period of slower growth as 2015 was the slowest year since 1990 as the economy begins the transition from an export and manufacturing based economy to one that is more oriented towards the service and technology sectors. In 2015 real GDP in India grew an impressive 7.5% but was lacking balance as exports and invest-ment led while private consumption lagged. Other emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia were in recession in 2015 and are not expected to see growth until 2017.

IHS Global Insight forecasts world real GDP to grow at 2.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Emerging markets are forecast to grow above the global average but at lower rates than in the early 2000’s. Asia (excluding Japan), led by India and China, is projected to have the fastest growth fol-lowed by Middle East and Africa, Latin

America, and Eastern Europe. Growth in the more mature economies will be lower than the global trend with the fastest rates in the U.S. followed by Europe. Growth in Ja-pan is projected to be very slow with rates below 1% a year reflecting deep structural issues associated with a shrinking and ag-ing population.

7.5 6.8

2.4 1.5 0.5

-3.2 -4.0

2.4

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

India and China led World Economic Growth in 2015

India China U.S. Eurozone Japan Brazil Russia World

Source: IHS Global Insight

7

Oil prices fell by 42% in 2015 to around $57 per barrel and are projected to fall another 24% in 2016 to $43 per barrel. However, the long run trend in oil prices is upward due to growing demand and higher costs of ex-

traction, and IHS Global Insight forecasts the price of oil to reach $100 per barrel by 2023 and continue to rise modestly thereaf-ter to $152 by 2036.

0.8

1.5

2.3

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.3

3.8

5.0

Japan

Eurozone

U.S.

Emerging Europe

Latin America

World

Asia ex China

M.E. & Africa

China

Asia and Africa/Middle East lead global economic growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Dec 2015 World Forecast

Annual GDP % growth 2016-2036

$0$20$40$60$80

$100$120$140$160

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

$ Pe

r Bar

rel o

f Oil

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquistion Cost

Source: IHS Global Insight

8

U.S. Airlines

Domestic Market

Mainline and regional carriers1 offer domes-tic and international passenger service be-tween the U.S. and foreign destinations, although regional carrier international ser-vice is confined to the border markets in Canada, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Twen-ty-nine all-cargo carriers were providing domestic and/or international air cargo ser-vice at the end of 2015.

Shaping today’s commercial air carrier in-dustry are three distinct trends: (1) industry consolidation and restructuring; (2) contin-ued capacity discipline in response to exter-nal shocks, and (3) the proliferation of ancil-lary revenues.

The restructuring and consolidation of the U.S. airline industry that began in the after-math of the terror attacks of September 11, 2011 continued in 2015. American and US Airways combined their networks and reser-vations systems to form the world’s largest airline with the last U.S. Airways flight oc-curring in October 2015. Consequently, there are now only four dominant airlines in the U.S. – American, Delta, Southwest, and United – controlling approximately 70% of the domestic market as measured by reve-nue passenger miles. It is highly unlikely the U.S. Government will approve any fur-

1 Mainline carriers are defined as those provid-ing service primarily via aircraft with 90 or more seats. Regionals are defined as those providing service primarily via aircraft with 89 or less seats and whose routes serve mainly as feeders to the mainline carriers.

ther mergers among these four due to anti-trust regulations. In 2005 there were twelve major mainline airlines.

The mergers and increasing market pres-ence of low cost carriers like Frontier, Jet-Blue and Southwest have had clear implica-tions on the fares, size of the aircraft being used and the load factors, topics that will be discussed later in this document.

One of the most striking outcomes of indus-try restructuring has been the unprecedent-ed period of capacity discipline, especially in domestic markets. Between 1978 and 2000, ASMs in domestic markets increased at an average annual rate of 4 percent a year, recording only two years of decline. Even though domestic ASMs shrank by 6.9 percent in FY 2002, following the events of September 11, 2001, growth resumed and by 2007, domestic ASMs were 3.6 percent above the FY 2000 level. However, U.S. domestic ASMS are still down 1.2 percent when compared to 2007 as the industry re-sponded first to the sharp rise in oil prices (up 155% between 2004 and 2008) and then the global recession that followed (2009 to the present). 2015 is the first year showing strong growth in ASMs (4.6 per-cent) since 2004.

The reduction in domestic capacity since 2007 has not been shared equally between the mainline carriers and their regional counterparts. To better match demand to capacity, the mainline carriers contracted out “thin” routes to their regional counter-parts because they could provide lift at a lower cost, or else they simply removed the capacity altogether. In 2015, the mainline

9

carrier group provided 0.9 percent less ca-pacity than it did in 2007 (but carried 2.1 percent more passengers thus load factors increased). Capacity flown by the regional group has shrunk by 3.0 percent over the same period (with passengers carried down 2.1 percent).

The regional market has continued to shrink as the regionals compete for even fewer contracts with the remaining dominant carri-ers; this has meant slow growth in en-planements and yields.

543 572 623 658 706 765 829

153 154 168 177

190 206

223

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2015E 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Enpl

anem

ents

(mill

ions

)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Enplanements by Carrier Group

Mainline Regional

10

The regionals have less leverage with the mainline carriers than they have had in the past as the mainline carriers have negotiat-ed contracts that are more favorable for their operational and financial bottom lines. Furthermore, the regional airlines are facing large pilot shortages and tighter regulations regarding pilot training. Their capital costs have increased in the short-term as they continue to replace their 50 seat regional jets with more fuel efficient 70 seat jets. This move to the larger aircraft will prove beneficial in the future however since their unit costs are lower.

Another continuing trend is that of ancillary revenues. Carriers generate ancillary reve-nues by selling products and services be-yond that of an airplane ticket to customers.

This includes the un-bundling of services previously included in the ticket price such as checked bags and on-board meals, and by adding new services such as boarding priority and internet access. As noted earli-er, U.S. passenger carriers posted record net profits for the sixth consecutive year in 2015 with ancillary revenues a contributing factor to the favorable outcome as well as very low oil prices. Airlines are also in-creasingly experimenting with segmenting their cabins into more discreet cost catego-ries based on comfort amenities like seat pitch, leg room, and access to social media and outlets.

U.S. commercial air carriers’ total number of domestic departures continued the down-ward trend that started in 2008 while ASMs,

14.7 14.4

16.4

18.4 19.8

21.0 22.5

12.3 12.0 13.7

15.4 16.5

17.5 18.7

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

2015E 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Rev

enue

Per

Mile

(¢)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Passenger Nominal Yield

Mainline Regionals

11

RPMs and enplanements all showed a re-bound; these trends underlie the expanding size of aircraft and higher load factors.2 In 2015, the domestic load factor reached a historic high of 84.5 for commercial air car-riers. It is presently assumed that the load factor will not exceed 86.5 in the future due to the logistical difficulties inherent in match-ing supply perfectly with demand.

2 Commercial airlines encompass both mainline and regional carriers.

12

System, that is, the sum of domestic plus international capacity, increased 3.9 percent to 1.066 trillion ASMs in 2015 while RPMs increased 3.8 percent to 889.1 billion. Dur-ing the same period system-wide enplane-ments increased 3.8 percent to 785.8 mil-lion. In 2015, U.S. carriers prioritized the domestic over the international market in terms of allocating capacity. It is forecast that this allocation will continue into 2016 but carriers will start expanding capacity in the international market starting in 2017 and remain focused on that growth market through 2036 as the domestic market con-tinues to mature.

U.S. mainline carrier enplanement growth in the combined domestic and international market was 5.1 percent in 2015 while re-

gional carriers carried 1.1 percent fewer passengers.

In the domestic market, mainline enplane-ments saw an increase for the fifth consecu-tive year, up 5.6 percent, marking the first time since 2000 that the industry recorded five consecutive years of passenger growth in the domestic market. Mainline passen-gers in international markets posted a sixth year of growth, up 2.4 percent.

Even though the recession was officially over in June 2009, carriers continued to face demand uncertainty in 2015 as wages continued to stagnate, household income growth was weak, the housing market’s re-covery was patchy across the country, and government spending at the federal and lo-cal levels remained stagnant and are pro-

83.5

84.0

84.5

85.0

85.5

86.0

86.5

87.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2015E 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Load

Fac

tor

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers Domestic Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements Load Factor

13

jected to remain so for the next few years. Despite these dire statistics, the unemploy-ment rate fell and consumer spending was up and many urban housing markets have been revived strongly. In such an uneven, but slowly improving, environment, industry capacity growth was restrained (up 3.9 per-cent), after only a 2.3 percent increase in 2014. Higher airfares and ancillary reve-nues, coupled with falling fuel prices result-

ed in U.S. carriers finishing up 2015 with a strong net profit.

System load factor and trip length remained flat in 2015, even as seats per aircraft mile increased by 2.4 percent; again reflecting the trend towards using larger aircraft. Seats per aircraft mile system wide in-creased to 149.1 seats (up 3.5 seats per aircraft mile), the highest level since 1994.

14

International Market

The international market continues to be the growth segment for U.S. carriers when compared to the mature U.S. domestic mar-ket, especially since FY 2004. Last year, 2015, was an exception to the trend and 2016 is expected to follow suit as airlines continue to focus on the domestic market. Starting in 2017 the international market (comprised of mainline and regional carri-ers) should again start outpacing the do-mestic market in terms of enplanements,

RPMs and ASMs at an average annual rate (FY 2017-2036) of 3.6%, 3.5%, and 3.5% respectively.

While the financial situation across the world has weakened somewhat, lower fares enabled by falling oil prices and more effi-cient aircraft has boosted demand; at least in the short term. It is possible that histori-cally low oil prices signal further weakening in the global economy and thus, lower travel demand in the future.

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - Enplanements

Domestic Market International Market

15

The next five years will feature a rebuilding of international demand by the U.S. carriers with moderate growth averaging around 3.6, 3.5, and 3.5 for enplanements, RPMs, and ASMs respectively. Airlines will exercise

capacity restraint and the load factor is ex-pected to stabilize around 81.8%. Load fac-tors this high were last seen in 2013.

(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - RPMs

Domestic Market International Market

(20.0)

(15.0)

(10.0)

(5.0)

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Annu

al G

row

th R

ate

(%)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Carriers - ASMs

Domestic International

16

Overall however, U.S. carrier market share of international passengers has been drop-ping in all regions with the exception of the

Caribbean, Oceania and Central America. It is expected that these trends will continue.

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

2015E 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

U.S. Commercial Air Carriers International Market

ASMs RPMs Enplanements

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% o

f Mar

ket S

hare

Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Enplanement Market Share by Region

CaribbeanMexicoCentral AmericaSouth AmericaAll CountriesCanadaAfricaEuropeAsiaOceaniaMiddle East

17

For U.S. carriers, Latin America is still the largest international destination despite the recent economic and political crises of Bra-zil. While 2014 saw 7.5% growth, 2015 still showed a very robust 5.1% increase. In contrast, the Pacific region saw 0% en-planement growth and the Atlantic region saw a drop of 1.3%. It is expected that the Latin American market will continue to be the growth market for travel to and from the U.S.

Despite the economic powerhouses of Chi-na, Japan and South Korea, the Pacific re-gion remains a relatively small market for the U.S. and will remain so for the next twenty years. While travel to the US will

grow approximately 3.8% per year from 2016-2036 for all carriers, the majority of travel demand in that region will be intra-Asian.

Both the Atlantic and Canada regions are mature and will experience enplanement growth of 3.7% and 3.6%, respectively, on average over the twenty year period for all carriers. It is unclear at this time if the Syri-an refugee crisis and terrorism threats will affect travel demand in 2016 and beyond.

Despite the recent economic downturn in Latin America, it is still the largest driver of international demand to the U.S. Mexico, the most popular destination, is forecast to

69 72 85 98 113 129 148 73 77

87 102

121 142

168

35 36 43

51 60

68

77

29 29 34

39

45

51

59

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2015 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Mill

ions

of P

asse

nger

s

Calendar Year

Total Passengers To/From the U.S. American and Foreign Flag Carriers

Atlantic* L. America Pacific Canada TransborderSource: US Customs & Border Protection data processed and released by Department of Commerce; data also received from Transport Canada * Per past practice, the Mid-East region and Africa are included in the Atlantic category.

18

experience 4.2% annual growth from 2016-2036 for all carriers whereas the entire re-

gion is forecast to grow 4.0%

Cargo

Air cargo traffic contains both domestic and international freight/express and mail. The demand for air cargo is a derived demand resulting from economic activity. Cargo moves in the bellies of passenger aircraft and in dedicated all-cargo aircraft on both scheduled and nonscheduled service. Car-go carriers face price competition from al-ternative shipping modes such as trucks, container ships, and rail cars.

U.S. air carriers flew 35.9 billion revenue ton miles (RTMs) in 2015, up 2.2 percent from 2014 with domestic cargo revenue ton miles (RTMs) increasing 3.3 percent to 13.1 billion while international RTMs increased by 1.6 percent to 22.9 billion. Air cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers comprised 78.1 percent of total RTMs in 2015, with passen-ger carriers flying the remainder. Total RTMs flown by the all-cargo carriers in-creased 1.8 percent in 2015 while total RTMs flown by passenger carriers grew by 3.6 percent.

U.S. carrier international air cargo traffic can be divided into four components consisting of Atlantic, Latin, Pacific, and ‘Other Interna-tional.’ In 2015 total international RTMs in-creased 1.6 percent to 22.9 billion as growth in the Pacific region offset declines in the other three regions.

Historically, air cargo activity tracks with GDP. Additional factors that affect air cargo growth are fuel price volatility, movement of real yields, and globalization. Significant structural changes have occurred in the air cargo industry; among these are air cargo security regulations by the FAA and TSA, maturation of the domestic express market,

a shift from air to other modes (especially truck), use of all-cargo carriers (e.g., FedEx) by the U.S. Postal Service to transport mail, and the increased use of mail substitutes (e.g. e-mail, cloud-based services).

The forecasts of Revenue Ton Miles (RTMs) are based on several assumptions specific to the cargo industry. First, security restrictions on air cargo transportation will remain in place. Second, most of the shift from air to ground transportation has oc-curred. Finally, long-term cargo activity will be tied to economic growth.

The forecasts of RTMs were based on models that link cargo activity to GDP. Forecasts of domestic cargo RTMs were developed with real U.S. GDP as the prima-ry driver. Projections of international cargo RTMs were based on growth in world GDP, adjusted for inflation. The distribution of RTMs between passenger and all-cargo carriers was forecast based on an analysis of historic trends in shares, changes in in-dustry structure, and market assumptions.

After increasing by 2.2 percent in 2015, total RTMs are forecast to grow 4.5 percent in 2016 and driven by steady U.S. and world economic growth, total RTMs are projected to increase at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent for the balance of the forecast peri-od.

Domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to grow 1.9 percent in 2016 as the U.S. economic recovery continues after posting a 3.3 in-crease in 2015. Between 2016 and 2036, domestic cargo RTMs are forecast to in-crease at an average annual rate of 0.4

19

percent. In 2015, all-cargo carriers carried 89.2 percent of domestic cargo RTMs. The all-cargo share is forecast to grow to 90.8 percent by 2036 based on increases in ca-pacity for all-cargo carriers and ongoing se-curity considerations.

International cargo RTMs grew 1.6 percent in 2015 after posting a 0.3 percent increase in 2014 as stagnation in Europe and a slowdown in China’s economic growth slowed worldwide trade. Growth is ex-pected to rebound in 2016 to 6.0 percent as global trade growth resumes. For the fore-cast period (2016-36) international cargo RTMs are forecast to increase an average

of 4.7 percent a year based on projected growth in world GDP with the Pacific region having the fastest growth, followed by the Other International, Atlantic, and Latin re-gions, respectively.

The share of international cargo RTMs flown by all-cargo carriers increased from 49.3 percent in 2000 to 71.8 percent in 2015. Continuing the trend experienced over the past decade, the all-cargo share of international RTMs flown is forecast to in-crease modestly to 78.1 percent by 2036.

20

General Aviation

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown, and utilization rates from the General Aviation and Part 135 Activity Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures to forecast the GA fleet and activity. Forecasts of new air-craft deliveries, which use the data from General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA), together with assumptions of re-tirement rates, produce growth rates of the fleet by aircraft categories, which are ap-plied to the GA Survey fleet estimates. The forecasts are carried out for “active air-craft,”3 not total aircraft. The FAA’s general aviation forecasts also rely on discussions with the industry experts conducted at indus-try meetings, including four Transportation Research Board (TRB) meetings of Business Aviation and Civil Helicopter Subcommittees conducted annually in May and January.

The results of the 2014 GA Survey, the lat-est available, were consistent with the re-sults of surveys conducted since 2004 im-provements to the survey methodology. The 2014 Survey recorded the first increase to the GA fleet since 2007, particularly since the implementation of 2010 Rule for Re-Registration and Renewal of Aircraft Regis-tration. The active GA fleet was estimated as 204,408 aircraft in 2014 (up 2.2 percent from 2013), with 23.3 million hours flown (up 1.7 percent from 2013).

In 2015, the general aviation industry expe-rienced its first decline in deliveries since

3 An active aircraft is one that flies at least one hour during the year.

2010. While the single engine piston aircraft deliveries by U.S. manufacturers continued to grow and business jet deliveries recorded a very modest increase compared to the previous year, turboprop deliveries were down by 10 percent, and much smaller cat-egory of multi-engine piston deliveries de-clined 40 percent. Based on figures re-leased by GAMA, U.S. manufacturers of general aviation aircraft delivered 1,581 air-craft in CY 2015, 3.1 percent fewer than CY 2014. This was the first decline after four years of growth in shipments that showed first signs of slowing down in 2014. Single engine piston deliveries increased by 3.4 percent in 2015, but the decrease in multi-engine piston shipments caused a 0.6 per-cent decrease in overall piston airplane de-liveries. In the turbine categories, turbojet deliveries were up by 0.8 percent. With the 10.0 percent decline in turboprop deliveries, total turbine shipments went down by 5.3 percent in 2015.

21

GAMA and industry experts also reported significant decreases in rotorcraft deliveries in 2015, particularly resulting from direct and indirect effects of oil price declines.

Against these current conditions, the long term outlook for general aviation, driven by turbine aircraft activity, remains favorable. The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.2 percent over the 21-year forecast peri-od, growing from an estimated 203,880 in 2015 to 210,695 aircraft by 2036. The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is pro-jected to grow by 15,600 aircraft -- at an av-erage rate of 2.1 percent a year over the

forecast period, with the turbine jet portion increasing at 2.5 percent a year.

While steady growth in GDP and long term corporate profits impacts continued growth of the turbine and rotorcraft fleets, the larg-est segment of the fleet, fixed wing piston aircraft is predicted to shrink over the fore-cast period by 17,500 aircraft (at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent).

On the other hand, currently the smallest category, light-sport-aircraft, which was cre-ated in 2005, is forecast to grow by 4.5 per-cent annually, adding about 3,900 new air-craft by 2036, nearly tripling its 2014 fleet size.

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Billings ($B) Shipments

Calendar Year

General Aviation U.S. Manufacturers Shipments and Billings

Shipments Billings ($ Billion)Source: GAMA

22

Moderate fleet growth also impacts the number of general aviation hours flown, pro-jected to increase an average of 1.2 percent per year through 2036. Following the de-cline in piston fleet, fixed wing piston hours are forecast to decrease by 0.6 percent. Countering this trend, hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 2.6 percent yearly over the fore-

cast period. Jet aircraft are expected to ac-count for most of the increase, with hours flown increasing at an average annual rate of 3.1 percent over the forecast period. The large increases in jet hours result mainly from the increasing size of the business jet fleet, along with continuing increase in utili-zation rates, as indicated by the GA Survey.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2006 2016 2026 2036Calendar Year

Active General Aviation Aircraft

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing Turbine Rotorcraft

LSA Experimental

23

Rotorcraft activity, which was not as heavily impacted by the previous economic down-turn as other aircraft and rebounded earlier, faces the challenges brought by lower oil prices. They impact utilization rates and new aircraft orders both directly through de-creasing activity in oil exploration, and also through associated slowdown in related economic activity. Rotorcraft hours are pro-jected to grow by 2.5 percent annually over the forecast period.

Lastly, the light sport aircraft category is forecasted to see an increase of 5.0 percent a year in hours flown, primarily driven by growth in the fleet.

The FAA also conducts a forecast of pilots by certification categories, using the data compiled by the Administration’s Mike Mon-roney Aeronautical Center. There were 590,039 active pilots certificated by FAA at

the end of 2015. While private and com-mercial pilot categories kept their declining trends, student pilot certificates continued to increase. One regulatory change that af-fected the number of student pilot certifi-cates was the 2010 rule that increased the duration of validity for student pilot certifi-cates for pilots under the age of 40 from 36 months to 60 months. Since 2011, the stu-dent pilot numbers have been rising and reached 122,729 in 2015.

Another change in the legislation impacted commercial and air transport pilot (ATP) certificates. The Airline Safety and Federal Aviation Administration Extension Act of 2010 mandated that all part 121 (scheduled airline) flight crew members would hold an ATP certificate by August 2013. The airline pilots holding a commercial pilot certificate and mostly serving at Second in Command positions at the regional airlines could no

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006 2016 2026 2036Calendar Year

General Aviation Hours Flown (in thousands)

Fixed Wing Piston Fixed Wing TurbineRotorcraft LSAExperimental

24

longer operate with only a commercial pilot certificate after that date, and the FAA data showed a faster decline in commercial pilot numbers, accompanied by a higher rate of increase in ATP certificates.

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding ATPs) is projected to decrease about 5,000 (down 0.1 percent yearly) over the forecast period, while the ATP category

is forecast to increase by 13,600 (up 0.4 percent annually). The student pilots are forecast to increase by 0.3 percent and much smaller category of sport pilots are predicted to increase by 4.8 percent annual-ly over the forecast period. On the other hand, both private and commercial pilot cer-tificates are projected to decrease by 0.6 percent yearly until 2036.

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Calendar Year

Active Pilots by Type of Certificate

Students Sport Pilot Private Pilot

Commercial Pilot Air Transport Pilots Rotorcraft only

25

FAA Operations

The growth in air travel demand and the business aviation fleet will drive growth in operations at FAA facilities over the forecast period. Activity at FAA and Contract towers is forecast to increase at an average rate of 0.9 percent a year between 2016 and 2036. Commercial operations4 at these facilities are forecast to increase 1.5 percent a year, 5 times faster than non-commercial opera-tions. The growth in commercial operations is less than the growth in U.S. airline pas-senger traffic (1.5 percent vs 2.0 percent) over the forecast period due primarily to larger aircraft (seats per aircraft mile) and higher load factors. Both of these trends allow U.S. airlines to accommodate more passengers without increasing the number of flights. General aviation operations (which accounted for 52% of operations in 2015) are forecast to increase an average of 0.3 percent a year as increases in turbine powered activity more than offset declines in piston activity.

4 Sum of air carrier and commuter/air taxi cate-gories.

FAA Tracon (Terminal Radar Approach Control) Operations5 are forecast to grow slightly faster than at towered facilities. This is in part a reflection of the different mix of activity at Tracons. Total operations are forecast to increase an average of 1.1 per-cent a year between 2016 and 2036. Commercial operations accounted for ap-proximately 59 percent of Tracon operations in 2015 and are projected to grow 1.5 per-cent a year over the forecast period. Gen-eral aviation activity at these facilities is pro-jected to grow only 0.4 percent a year over the forecast.

Activity at FAA En-Route Centers is meas-ured by the number of IFR aircraft handled.

5 Tracon operations consist of itinerant Instru-ment Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR) arrivals and departures at all airports in the domain of the Tracon as well as IFR and VFR overflights.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

Ope

ratio

ns (0

00)

Fiscal Year

FAA & Contract Tower Operations

Commercial Non Commercial

26

In 2015, aircraft handled at FAA En-Route Centers increased 1.4 percent, led by in-creases in the Air Carrier and General Avia-tion categories. Growth in airline traffic and business aviation is expected to lead to in-creases in activity at En-Route centers. Over the forecast period, aircraft handled at En-Route centers are forecast to increase at an average rate of 1.4 percent a year as increases in Air Carrier and General Avia-tion activity offset declines in Air Taxi activi-ty. Activity at En-Route centers is forecast to grow much faster than activity at towered airports because more of the activity at En-Route centers is from the faster growing commercial sector and high-end (mainly turbine) general aviation flying. Much of the general aviation activity at towered airports, which is growing more slowly, is local in na-ture, and does not impact the centers.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2006 2016 2026 2036

AC H

andl

ed (0

00)

Fiscal Year

En-Route Center Aircraft Handled

Commercial Non Commercial

27

U.S. Commercial Aircraft Fleet

The number of aircraft in the U.S. commer-cial fleet is forecast to increase from 6,871 in 2015 to 8.414 in 2036, an average annual growth rate of 1.0 percent a year. Increased demand for air travel and growth in air cargo is expected to fuel increases in both the passenger and cargo fleets.

Between 2015 and 2036 the number of jets in the U.S. mainline carrier fleet is forecast to grow from 3,946 to 5,339, an average of 66 aircraft a year as carriers continue to re-move older, less fuel efficient narrow body aircraft. The narrow body fleet (including E-series aircraft at American and JetBlue) is projected to grow 51 aircraft a year as carri-ers replace the 757 fleet and current tech-nology 737 and A320 family aircraft with the next generation MAX and Neo families. The wide-body fleet grows by an average of 15 aircraft a year as carriers add 777-8/9, 787’s, A350’s to the fleet while retiring 767-300 and 777-200 aircraft. In total the U.S. passenger carrier wide-body fleet increases by 60 percent over the forecast period.

The regional carrier fleet is forecast to de-cline from 2,144 aircraft in 2015 to 1,961 in 2036 as the fleet shrinks by 21 percent (448

aircraft) between 2015 and 2022. Carriers remove 50 seat regional jets and retire older small turboprop and piston aircraft, while adding 70-90 seat jets, especially the E-2 family after 2020. By 2025 only a handful of 50 seat regional jets remain in the fleet. By 2036, the number of jets in the regional car-rier fleet totals 1,786, up from 1,628 in 2015. The turboprop/piston fleet is forecast to shrink by two-thirds from 516 in 2015 to 175 by 2036. These aircraft account for just 8.9 percent of the fleet in 2036, down from 24.1 percent in 2015.

The cargo carrier large jet aircraft fleet is forecast to increase from 781 aircraft in 2015 to 1,114 aircraft in 2036 driven by the growth in freight RTMs. The narrow-body cargo jet fleet is projected to increase by 2 aircraft a year as 757’s and 737’s are con-verted from passenger use to cargo service. The wide body cargo fleet is forecast to in-crease 14 aircraft a year as new 747-800, 767-300, and 777-200 aircraft are added to the fleet, replacing older MD-11 and 767-200 freighters.

28

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,000

2006 2016 2026 2036Calendar Year

U.S. Carrier Fleet

Mainline NB Mainline WB

Cargo Jet Regionals

29

Unmanned Aircraft Systems

An Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) is the unmanned aircraft (UA) and its associated elements (including communication links and the components that control the un-manned aircraft) that are required for the safe and efficient operation of the un-manned aircraft in the national airspace sys-tem (NAS). The forecast will be driven by a combination of an improved regulatory envi-ronment and underlying demand. In 2015, unprecedented milestones were achieved for UAS. The FAA is continuing to enable this new thriving industry to flourish while maintaining safety.

Education, Outreach, and Research

The FAA is partnering with several industry associations for the “Know Before You Fly” educational campaign. This outreach pro-motes the safe and responsible use of un-manned aircraft as they become integrated into the NAS. The FAA also developed and made available an app, B4UFLY which pro-vides UAS operators with pertinent airspace requirements and restrictions before operat-ing.

Six FAA-selected UAS test site operators are providing information on system safety, data gathering, aircraft certification, com-mand and control link issues, control station layout and certification, ground and airborne sense and avoid, and environmental im-pacts. In addition, a team led by Mississippi State University has been identified as the FAA's Center of Excellence for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (COE UAS). The COE will focus on research, education, and training in areas critical to safe and successful inte-gration of UAS into the nation's airspace.

Exemptions and Authorizations

Section 333 of the FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012 grants the Secretary of Transportation the authority to determine whether an airworthiness certification is re-quired for certain UAS to operate safely in the NAS. This determination is based on the size, weight, speed, and operational capa-bilities of the aircraft. Using the FAA’s ex-emption process, a safety evaluation is conducted, and appropriate conditions and limitations for the operation are imposed through each exemption granted. As of March 16, 2016, over 4,000 exemptions have been granted for commercial UAS op-erations in the United States under the Sec-tion 333 authority. This demonstrates con-siderable potential demand for UAS opera-tions, in low-risk, controlled environments. In addition, commercial UAS operations must be conducted in accordance with a Certificate of Authorization or Waiver (COA) issued by the FAA Air Traffic Organization. The COA describes the specific operating areas approved for UAS operations and as-sociated mitigations that help to ensure the safety of the NAS.

Model Aircraft and Hobbyist Forecast

In order to operate in the NAS, the FAA must ensure that aircraft operators are not only aware of the system in which they are operating, but that the agency also has a means to identify owners. One means to accomplish this is through aircraft registra-tion and marking. On December 14, 2015, the FAA issued a rule requiring all UAS weighing more than 0.55 pounds (250 grams) and less than 55 pounds to be regis-tered using a new on-line system (UAS weighing more than 55 pounds must be reg-

30

istered using the existing Aircraft Registra-tion Process). This registration rule will aid in investigations and allow the FAA to gath-er data about UAS use. As of mid-March, 2016 there have been over 408,000 regis-trations.

As shown in the following table, a sales forecast was developed for the small UAS registration rule, which included very small

units below the registration size cutoff of 250 grams. For this interim final rule, in 2016, we forecast 1.9 million potential an-nual sales and that number could increase to 4.3 million units sold annually by 2020. As shown in the first row of the table below, this would represent the upper bound of the potential number of small UAS operated as model or hobby aircraft.

Sales Forecast SummaryMillion sUAS Units

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Hobbyist (model aircraft) 1.9 2.3 2.9 3.5 4.3Commercial (non-model aircraft) 0.6 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7

2.5 4.8 5.5 6.1 7.0Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding

Commercial Forecast

In 2015, in support of the small UAS regis-tration rule, a sales forecast for commercial UAS was developed to derive the potential demand for the new on-line registration sys-tem. That forecast represents the high end of the small UAS commercial fleet. As summarized in the second row of the previ-ous table, for 2016, the potential sales of commercial small UAS requiring registration was forecast to be over 600,000, growing to 2.7 million by 2020.

On February 23, 2015, the FAA issued the Operation and Certification of Small Un-manned Aircraft Systems Notice of Pro-posed Rulemaking (NPRM) proposing to amend its regulations to adopt specific rules for the operation of small UAS in the NAS. Over 4,600 public comments were submit-ted in response to the NPRM. The FAA ex-pects to publish a final rule in late spring of 2016. More information on the derivation and assumptions behind this forecast will be provided in the Regulatory Impact Assess-

ment accompanying the final rule publica-tion.

The FAA is working with the Teal Group Corporation, an industry expert in UAS fore-casting, to develop a commercial forecast for small UAS operations described in the NPRM. The civil and commercial UAS mar-ket will take time to develop and the size of the market will directly relate to the specific requirements developed along with airspace accessibility. The Teal Group has provided the FAA with a forecast for small commer-cial unmanned aircraft. This forecast ana-lyzes the market demand for different sec-tors within the regulatory environment.

As shown in the graph below, it is expected that, once the final small UAS rule is imple-mented, two different categories of small UAS (sUAS) will emerge. Higher end sUAS will have an average sales price of $40,000 per unit, while lower end units will have an average price of $2,500. Over a five year period, Teal Group forecasts the sUAS fleet to be approximately 542,500.

31

Of this estimated fleet, it is expected that roughly 90% of the demand will satisfied by the lower end units.

The number of small UAS forecasted is highly uncertain and is dependent on the regulatory structure ultimately adopted. Once a final rule for small UAS is published, they will become more commercially viable

than they are today. The total fleet shown in the previous table is expected to satisfy the market for the top five industries that will employ the use of sUAS.

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Higher end UAS 1,300 6,300 16,000 32,000 52,000Lower end UAS 31,500 95,000 180,000 320,000 490,500Total Fleet 32,800 101,300 196,000 352,000 542,500

32,800

101,300

196,000

352,000

542,500

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000sUAS Fleet

32

Looking beyond existing regulatory initia-tives, FAA has developed the UAS Focus Area Pathfinders initiative. This initiative explores how UAS might be safely used in populated areas, how UAS flights outside the pilot's direct vision might allow greater UAS use in rural areas, and some of the command-and-control challenges of using UAS beyond visual line of sight in ru-ral/isolated areas. The overall demand for commercial UAS will soar once regulations more easily enable beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) operations and operations of multiple UA by a single pilot. Once a

framework is enabled for BVLOS opera-tions, the projected market sizes could be higher than the forecast

Venture capitalists are already investing considerable amounts of money into this emerging industry with the intention to build early market share in this technology. Manufacturers’ efforts are focused on build-ing systems optimized for particular seg-ments of the market. Unmanned aircraft systems will be the most dynamic growth sector within aviation. The FAA will contin-ue to work with industry and stakeholders to safely integrate UAS into the NAS.

Real Estate/ Aerial

Photography 22%

Insurance 15%

Agriculture 19%

Industrial Inspection

42%

Government 2%

Top Five sUAS Markets

33

Commercial Space Transportation

The Federal Aviation Administration’s Office of Commercial Space Transportation (FAA AST) and the Commercial Space Transpor-tation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC) have prepared forecasts of global demand for commercial space launches in 2015 through 2024.

The 2015 Commercial Space Transporta-tion Forecasts report (the Report) is in two sections:

1) The COMSTAC 2015 Commercial Ge-osynchronous Orbit (GSO) Launch De-mand Forecast, which projects demand for commercial satellites that operate in GSO and the resulting commercial launch demand to GSO. As a result of the realignment of issuances dates of the Report, this year’s GSO Launch Demand Forecast only considers the three-year outlook; and

2) The FAA’s 2015 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO),which projects commercial launch demand for

satellites to NGSO, such as low Earth orbit (LEO), medium Earth orbit (MEO), elliptical (ELI) orbits, and external (EXT) trajectories beyond orbits around the Earth.

Report projects an average of 17 commer-cial GSO launches for 2015 through 2017 and 13.1 NGSO launches for 2014 through 2013. The chart below shows the combined GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast. It reflects the three year GSO forecast outlook. The table below shows the number of GSO and NGSO pay-loads and launches projected from 2015 and 2024.

It is important to distinguish between fore-cast demand and the number of satellites actually launched. Launch vehicle and sat-ellite programs are complex, and suscepti-ble to delays, which generally makes the forecast demand for launches the upper lim-it of actual launches in the near-term fore-cast.

34

Combined 2015 GSO and NGSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecasts

Commercial Space Transportation Payload and Launch Forecasts2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total Avg.

PayloadsGSO Forecast (COMSTAC)

24 25 26 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 25.0*

NGSO Forecast (FAA) 65 136 151 104 92 92 87 86 87 86 986 98.6

Total Payloads 89 161 177 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --Launches

GSO Med-to-Heavy 16 17 18 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

NGSO Med-to-Heavy 13 17 15 13 11 10 10 10 10 10 119 11.9

NGSO Small 1 2 4 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 12 1.2

Total Launches 30 36 37 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --

35

The GSO market remains stable with a pro-jected demand of 25 satellites per year for the period 2015-2017, up from last year’s average for 22.3 for the period 2014-2016. The chart below shows the 2015 GSO His-torical Launches and Launch Forecast. Thirty-nine percent of GSO satellites pro-jected to launch from 2015-2017 are in the heaviest mass class (above 5,400 kg). At the same time, seven percent of the satel-lites in the same period are in the lowest mass class (below 2,500 kg). In 2015, un-addressable launches remained at the

comparably high level – launch contracts that were not open to international (includ-ing U.S.) competition – as Chinese and Russian government-owned aerospace companies routinely package satellites, launches, and financing together. The sat-ellite services market is generally robust, and new launch vehicle options will affect the dynamics of the launch industry. Opera-tors are cautious about the impact of the economy on their plans but are generally satisfied with satellite and launch vehicle offerings.

2015 GSO Historical Launches and Launch Forecast

36

Projected NGSO Launches from 2015-2024

The demand for commercial NGSO launch-es is expected to be at a comparably high level as major NGSO telecommunication constellations are replenished and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) International Space Station (ISS) commercial crew and cargo resupply mis-sions become more regular. The annual average of NGSO commercial launches is expected to grow from an annual average of seven launches a year over the last ten years to about 11.9 launches annually. From 2015-2024, 986 payloads are project-ed to launch commercially, driving only 131 launches with multi-manifesting, reflecting an industry planning to launch more micro- and small-class payloads in clusters, in-stead of increasing the demand for individu-al launches. The chart above shows the projected NGSO launches for the next ten years. The launches in the next ten years are predominantly commercial launches to

the International Space Station, which re-quire medium-to-heavy vehicles. Ninety-one percent of all commercial NGSO launches during the forecast period will launch on medium-to-heavy vehicles. The relatively higher number of small launches is due to Skybox Imaging’s plans to use Minotaur C to deploy its constellation and the first test flights of four newly developed commercial small launch vehicles in 2015-2017, to be introduced for commercial launch services in the following years. From 2015-2018 the Report forecasts a number of small commercial satellites to be launched as Iridium, ORBCOMM, Planet Labs, and Skybox all deploy their constella-tions. The number of these multi-manifested satellites drops off towards the end of the forecast, but the number of launches remains relatively steady as NASA begins its commercial crew program.

37

For the full study, please visit:

https://www.faa.gov/about/office_org/headquarters_offices/ast/media/Commercial_Space_Transportation_Forecasts_2015.pdf

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Risks to the Forecast

The forecasts in this document are fore-casts of aviation demand, driven by models built on forecasts of economic activity. There are many assumptions in both the economic forecasts and in the FAA models that could impact the degree to which these forecasts are realized. This year’s forecast is driven, at least in the short-term, by a number of factors including the strength of the economic recovery and any impact re-sulting from the U.S. government fiscal situ-ation. Also, as numerous incidents in the past few years (like the downing of a Rus-sian A321 in the Sinai in October 2015) re-mind us, terrorism remains among the greatest risks to aviation growth. Any terror-ist incident aimed at aviation would have an immediate and significant impact on the demand for aviation services that would be greater than its impact on overall economic activity.

Although oil prices remained below $60 per barrel for most of 2015, the recent volatility reminds us there is still considerable uncer-tainty as to the future direction of oil prices. The FAA’s baseline forecast (derived from economic assumptions in IHS Global In-sight’s December 2015 U.S. macro forecast and 30-Year Focus released during the fourth quarter of 2015) calls for a decline in oil prices in 2016 to $43 per barrel and then rising steadily thereafter, exceeding $75 by 2020, $125 by 2025, and reaches $152 per barrel by the end of the forecast period in 2036. Some forecasters are calling for a more gradual rebound in the price of oil. In January 2016, the World Bank released its latest commodity price forecast. The fore-cast calls for oil prices to fall to $34 per bar-rel in 2016, remaining below $60 until 2021, and only exceeding $80 per barrel by 2025.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also sees oil price increasing at a more moder-ate rate than the FAA’s base forecast, as its January 2016 forecast called for oil prices increasing from $35 per barrel in 2016 to only $50.50 per barrel by 2021. Over the long run, lower oil prices give consumers an impetus for additional spending, including air travel, and should enhance industry prof-itability.

The baseline forecast assumes that global economic growth will accelerate after 2016, but weakness in certain areas may threaten the strength and sustainability of the expan-sion. The baseline forecast assumes that China and India will be growth engines for emerging economies as China successfully transitions the economy from reliance on heavy manufacturing and resource indus-tries to one more oriented towards the ser-vices and technology sectors and India con-tinues to implement reforms to make its economy more competitive. While economic growth appears to be holding up in the U.S., there are concerns about the strength of demand in Japan and in the European Un-ion as these areas continue to be con-strained by structural economic problems (high debt, slow population growth, weak public finances for example). Furthermore, the steps that were taken to stabilize the global economy during the Great Recession have resulted in additional distortions and imbalances. There are concerns that cen-tral banks may not raise interest rates in time to contain asset bubbles and inflation-ary expectations. In advanced economies, governments need to shore up their financ-es by constraining spending and raising taxes. Given the discomfort many policy makers feel about the measures adopted to

39

combat the Great Recession and uncertain-ty about the advanced economies’ pro-spects, there is considerable risk that au-thorities will either act prematurely or be ex-cessively timid and late in taking necessary steps. The current forecasts assume strong passenger growth for travel between the United States and other world regions. Any slowing of worldwide economic activity could seriously inhibit the growth in global passenger demand.

With the merger of American Airlines and US Airways completed, the outlook for fur-ther consolidation via mergers and acquisi-tions (M&A) appears to be rather limited. Based on FY 2015 data, the Big 3 (Ameri-can, Delta, and United) plus Southwest ac-counted for more than 76% of the U.S. air-line industry capacity and traffic. Of the network carriers, only Alaska remains inde-pendent, although it does have code share agreements with both American and Delta. There appears to be little appetite for further consolidation as there are significant obsta-cles. For many low cost carriers, the sheer size of merger transactions or the amount of financial risk associated with a merger makes further merger activity unlikely. For the network carriers, regulatory authorities are increasing their scrutiny over carrier practices (e.g. Department of Justice inves-tigation into impacts of “capacity discipline” on pricing) suggesting and any future pro-posed merger will face a less receptive au-dience than in the past decade.

However, U.S. airlines continue to explore other options including global alliances. Many of the major carriers in the U.S. are members of global alliances that operate with some measure of anti-trust immunity from the U.S. DOT. While anti-trust immuni-ty may provide flexibility for airline operators across borders, it may create an anti-

competitive environment in the marketplace. These market consolidating vehicles, par-ticularly the anti-trust immunity provisions, may invite increased regulatory scrutiny. If such oversights are launched in the future, this will complicate the evolving structure of the airline industry and may impact demand via new regulations.

The forecast assumes the addition of siza-ble numbers of large regional jets (70 to 90 seats) into the fleet of regional carriers. However, network carrier consolidation and new rules on pilot training have left regional carriers saddled with either excess capacity or a lack of pilots. Although air travel de-mand continues to recover, the bankruptcy filing of Republic Airlines in February 2016 is a reminder that financial pressures on regional operators have not abated. Net-work carriers continue to make adjustments to the size and breadth of their networks, without providing opportunities for regional carriers to backfill the loss of the mainline service. Delta is well along in its plans to reduce its small (read 50 seat) regional jet fleet and plans to retire another 50 to bring its total to just 125, down from almost 500 at the end of 2009. United has reduced the number of small regional jets flown by its partners from an estimated 380 in 2012 to 242 by the end of 2015 with a target of 100 by 2019. It is adding 85 Embraer 175’s to its partners’ regional fleet to partially replace the reduction in small jet flying. Meanwhile the new American Airways is planning to reduce its small regional jet fleet by 29 air-craft in 2016, after removing 31 in 2015. At the same time the carrier plans to add 49 larger regional jets to its fleet in 2016. While these actions may provide some op-portunities for well positioned regional carri-ers, the overall impact of consolidation so

40

far has been to reduce opportunities for re-gional flying substantially.

After suffering through a significant down-turn in 2009, business and corporate avia-tion have seen a partial recovery during the past five years. The pace of the recovery in business and corporate aviation is largely based upon the future prospects of econom-ic growth and corporate profits. Future un-certainty in these leading indicators could pose a risk to the forecast, but the risk is not limited to these factors. Public perception of business and corporate aviation, potential environmental regulations and taxes, along with increased security measures placed on business jets, will place downward pressure on the forecast. On the other hand, while corporate profits are currently high, per-ceived economic and political uncertainties are causing companies to postpone their purchase of new business aircraft. Transla-tion of this pent-up demand into sales of business jets in the near future can create an upward impact on the forecast. The im-pact of fuel price decline on business air-craft demand is also uncertain. While a positive effect on corporate profits will in-crease the demand, revenue losses result-ing from low fuel prices may move the de-mand in the other direction.

Other factors, such as new and more effi-cient product offerings and increased com-petition from new entrant manufacturers, serve to broaden the potential of the indus-try. The potential easing of regulations on the use of airspace in foreign countries would offer promising scenarios for busi-ness jet manufacturers. Raising the level of security restrictions, and the subsequent travel hassles placed on airline passengers, could make corporate jet travel look increas-ingly appealing.

Not only is the volume of aircraft operating at most large hubs expected to increase over the next 20 years, but the mix of air-craft is changing for this same period. The expected increases in the numbers of re-gional jets and business jets will increase the impact on the national airspace system and make the FAA’s job more challenging. This change in the mix of aircraft will impact workload strictly due to the increasing de-mand for aviation services projected over the forecast period.

While overall activity at FAA and contract towers increased 0.2 percent in 2015, activi-ty at the Core 30 airports increased 0.7 per-cent in 2015 and delays remained at histori-cally high levels at many U.S. airports. FAA forecasts operations at these airports to grow substantially faster than the overall national trend. As demand recovers and workload increases, congestion and delays could become a critical limit to growth over the forecast period. FAA’s forecasts of both demand and operations are unconstrained in that they assume that there will be suffi-cient infrastructure to handle the projected levels of activity. Should the infrastructure be inadequate and result in even more con-gestion and delays, it is likely that the fore-casts of both demand and operations would not be achieved.

There are concerns that aviation’s impact on the environment could potentially restrict the ability of the aviation sector to grow to meet national economic and mobility needs. Airport expansion or new construction is often a contentious issue because of noise, air quality, and water quality concerns. There is also an ongoing effort to address the climate impacts of aviation. Aviation currently accounts for 2 to 3 percent of global carbon emissions, but this percent-age is expected to increase with the growth

41

in operations unless mitigated with new technologies and standards, renewable fuels, operational improvements and poten-tially as a gap filler, market based measures. While certain measures to ad-dress climate impacts can result in reduced costs, such as increased fuel efficiency, other measures, such as market instru-ments could pose additional constraints on growth. Energy concerns are also rising, driven by spikes in fuel prices, supply and security issues, and concerns about fossil fuel emissions contributing to global climate change. Lack of progress in improving the environmental and energy outlook for the future fleet may result in more access re-strictions or operating limitations on the fleet in service which in turn may depress growth. By contrast, breakthroughs in qui-eter, cleaner aircraft technologies and re-newable fuels could reduce environmental and energy constraints on the forecast, and enable sustainable growth.

42

Appendix A: Alternative Forecast Scenarios

Uncertainty exists in all industries, but es-pecially in the commercial air travel industry. As volatility in the global environment has increased, the importance of scenarios for planning purposes has increased. In order to help stakeholders better prepare for the future, the FAA has provides alternative scenarios to our baseline forecasts of airline traffic and capacity. To create the baseline domestic forecast, economic assumptions from IHS Global In-sight’s 10-year and 30-year U.S. Macro Baselines were used. To develop the alter-native scenarios, assumptions from IHS Global Insight’s 10-year and 30-year opti-mistic and pessimistic forecasts from their January 2016 Baseline U.S. Economic Out-look were used were used. Inputs from these alternative scenarios were used to create a “high” and “low” traffic, capacity, and yield forecast. International passengers and traffic are pri-marily driven by country specific Gross Do-mestic Product (GDP) forecasts provided by IHS Global Insight. Thus, the alternative scenarios use inputs based on ratios de-rived from IHS Global Insight’s Major Trad-ing Partner and Minor Trading Partners op-timistic and pessimistic forecasts in order to create a high and low case.

Scenario Assumptions

The FAA’s domestic baseline forecast as-sumes that the economy recovers from the current downturn and experiences very low oil prices in the short term, suffers no major swings in macro-economic policy, or finan-cial sector collapses.

The FAA’s high case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s optimistic forecast. The op-timistic forecast sees improved business confidence leading to renewed vigor in the labor market, consumer spending, and sus-tained improvements in the housing sector as well as sustained low consumer prices, higher real personal consumption expendi-ture, relatively low Brent crude prices, and a high GDP. Furthermore, in the optimistic case, it is assumed that fiscal deficits will diminish substantially in North America, Western Europe, and Japan. In this scenar-io real personal consumption expenditure (PCE) per capita growth averages 0.4 per-centage points faster per year than the baseline forecast6 and unemployment aver-ages 0.3 points lower on a fiscal year basis than the baseline.7

Conversely, FAA’s low case forecast uses IHS Global Insight’s pessimistic scenario; in this forecast, the same assumptions apply as in the optimistic case, only the U.S. economy recovers at a much slower pace and the prices of Brent crude rise higher than in the base case. Moreover, the Euro-zone’s recovery will stall and growth in emerging markets will be less robust. Last-ly, real PCE per capita grows 0.4 percent-age points slower per year than in the base-line; and unemployment, on average, is

7 Real personal consumption expenditure per capita and unemployment are used as an input variables to the FAA’s base, high and low fore-casts of enplanements.

43

0.35 points higher on an annual basis than in the baseline.

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

Real Personal Consumption Expenditure per Capita

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticSource: IHS Global Insight

321 324

334

345 355

364 372

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

2015 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036

Anun

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Popu

latio

n ( m

illio

ns)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Population

All scenarios Annual Percent Change

Source: IHS Global Insight

44

The price of energy is one of the critical drivers in the growth of consumer prices over the forecast period. In the optimistic case, energy prices, wages, and import prices grow more slowly than in the base-

line. In the pessimistic case the opposite occurs with energy prices, wages and im-port prices rising more rapidly compared to the baseline.

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036% o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Une

mpl

oyed

Fiscal Year

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Pessimistic Baseline OptimisticSource: IHS Global Insight

-

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Pric

e pe

r Bar

rel (

$)

Fiscal Year

U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

Source: IHS Global Insight

45

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

BLS

Inde

x U

nits

*

Fiscal Year

Consumer Price Index - All Urban Consumers

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

* BLS Units: 1982-84 = 1.00 Source: IHS Global Insight

46

Alternative Forecasts

Enplanements

In the baseline forecast, system enplane-ments are forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent a year over the forecast horizon of 2016-2036 (with domes-tic and international passengers up 2.0 and 3.6 percent, respectively).

In the optimistic case, enplanements grow at a quicker pace, averaging 2.7 percent per year (up 2.6 percent domestically and 3.6 percent internationally). This scenario is marked by a more favorable business envi-ronment, lower inflation, and lower fuel pric-es which make the price of flying more af-fordable to business and leisure travelers. By the end of the forecast period in 2036, system passengers in the optimistic case

are 10.7 percent above the baseline, total-ing 1.4 billion, 132 million than in the base-line.

The pessimistic case is characterized by a period of weakened consumer confidence brought on by persistent unemployment, low consumer demand, and higher inflation. In this scenario enplanements grow an aver-age of 1.7 percent per year (domestic up 1.4 percent and international up 3.6 per-cent). In the pessimistic case, system pas-sengers in 2036 are 9.8 percent below the baseline case, totaling 1.1 billion, 121 mil-lion fewer than in the baseline.

(0.5) -

0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

System Enplanements

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

47

Revenue Passenger Miles

In the baseline forecast, system RPMs grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent a year over the forecast horizon (2016-2036), with domestic RPMs increasing 2.0 percent annually and international RPMs growing 3.5 percent annually.

In the optimistic case, the faster growing economy coupled with lower energy prices drives RPMs higher than the baseline, with growth averaging 2.8 percent per year (do-

mestic and international RPMs up 2.5 and 3.5 percent, respectively).

In the pessimistic case, the combination of a slower growing economy and higher energy prices result in RPM growth averaging 2.1 percent annually with domestic markets growing 1.4 percent a year while interna-tional traffic grows 3.5 percent annually.

Available Seat Mile

In the base case, system capacity is fore-cast to increase an average of 2.5 percent annually over the forecast horizon with growth averaging 2.1 percent annually in domestic markets and 3.4 percent a year in international markets.

In the optimistic case, capacity grows at a faster clip than in the baseline forecast, av-eraging 2.9 percent annually system-wide (up 2.7 percent domestically and up 3.4 percent internationally). Carriers increase capacity compared to the baseline forecast to accommodate increased travel demand

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

System Revenue Passenger Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

48

brought about by a more favorable econom-ic environment.

In the pessimistic case, demand for air trav-el is lower than in the baseline, thus system

capacity grows at a slower pace of 2.2 per-cent annually (domestic growth of 1.5 per-cent annually and international up 3.4 per-cent annually).

Load Factor

System load factors over the 20-year fore-cast period are relatively similar for all three forecast scenarios. In the base case and in the optimistic scenario, system load factor rises from 84.2 percent in 2016 to 84.7 per-cent and 84.9 in 2036, respectively.

In all three scenarios it is assumed that car-riers will keep load factors on the high side by actively managing capacity (seats) to more precisely meet demand (passengers).

The domestic load factor increases over the forecast horizon from 85.1 percent to 86.5 percent in all scenarios.

The international load factor forecast is slightly different in the three scenarios, re-flecting in part the relative growth in demand and capacity in the three (Atlantic, Latin, and Pacific) international regions under each scenario.

In the base case, international load factor is relatively steady, going from 81.9 percent in 2016 to 81.7 percent in 2036, the same load factor in the optimistic and pessimistic sce-narios.

- 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036

Annu

al P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Fiscal Year

System Available Seat Miles

Pessimistic Baseline Optimistic

49

Yield

In the baseline forecast, nominal system yield increases 1.9 percent annually, going from 13.98 cents in 2016 to 21.17 cents in 2036. In domestic markets, yield in the baseline forecast rises from 14.12 cents in 2016 to 22.06 cents in 2036, while interna-tional yield rises from 13.66 cents in 2016 to 19.50 cents in 2036.

System yield rises more slowly in the opti-mistic case, up 1.8 percent annually to be 20.68 cents at the end of the forecast peri-od. Domestic yield increases to 21.24 cents while international yield increases to 19.50 cents. The slower growth in yield in the high case is due to advancements in tech-nology, gains in productivity, more favorable fuel prices, and lower inflation. Increased

competition is also assumed in this scenar-io. In the domestic market, fares are driven lower than baseline levels due to increased levels of competition between low cost and legacy carriers. In the international market, increased competition from growing liberali-zation puts downward pressure on fares.

In the pessimistic case, nominal yields rise more rapidly than in the baseline, growing an average of 2.5 percent annually, reach-ing 24.18 cents by 2036 (26.98 cents do-mestically and 19.52 cents internationally). This scenario reflects higher general infla-tion and higher energy prices than in the baseline, forcing carriers to increase fares in order to cover the higher costs of fuel, labor, and capital.

50

TAB

LE A

-1

FAA

FORE

CAS

T EC

ONO

MIC

ASS

UMPT

IONS

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

5-20

36

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2015

E20

1620

2120

2620

3120

3620

15-1

620

16-2

120

16-2

620

16-3

120

16-3

6Ec

onom

icAs

sum

ptio

nsR

eal P

erso

nal C

onsu

mpt

ion

Pes

sim

istic

34,6

7435

,169

36,9

7039

,771

42,3

2645

,011

1.4%

1.0%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

Exp

endi

ture

per

Cap

itaB

asel

ine

34,6

7435

,433

39,0

5641

,912

45,4

4449

,429

2.2%

2.0%

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

(200

9 $)

Opt

imis

tic34

,674

35,3

5640

,120

44,2

0048

,792

53,7

512.

0%2.

6%2.

3%2.

2%2.

1%

Ref

iner

s A

cqui

sitio

n C

ost -

Pes

sim

istic

5735

9414

717

220

6-3

8.7%

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%15

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11.3

%9.

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vera

ge -

$ P

er B

arre

lB

asel

ine

5743

8312

913

915

2-2

3.9%

13.9

%11

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8.1%

6.5%

O

ptim

istic

5747

7311

811

912

4-1

6.3%

8.9%

9.5%

6.3%

4.9%

C

onsu

mer

Pric

e In

dex

Pes

sim

istic

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.3

3.9

4.7

0.6%

3.0%

3.2%

3.3%

3.4%

All

Urb

an, 1

982-

84 =

1.0

Bas

elin

e2.

42.

42.

73.

13.

43.

90.

9%2.

5%2.

5%2.

5%2.

4%O

ptim

istic

2.4

2.4

2.7

3.1

3.4

3.8

1.4%

2.3%

2.5%

2.3%

2.3%

Civi

lian

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

Pes

sim

istic

5.5

5.2

6.0

5.7

5.4

5.5

-4.6

%3.

0%0.

8%0.

3%0.

3%(%

)B

asel

ine

5.5

4.9

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.8

-9.4

%-0

.8%

-0.3

%-0

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-0.2

%O

ptim

istic

5.5

4.9

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

-10.

4%-0

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-0.8

%-0

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-0.5

%S

ourc

e: IH

S G

loba

l Ins

ight

51

TAB

LE A

-2

FAA

FORE

CAS

T O

F AV

IATI

ON

ACTI

VITY

*

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

5-20

36

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2015

E20

1620

2120

2620

3120

3620

15-1

620

16-2

120

16-2

620

16-3

120

16-3

6Sy

stem

Av

iatio

n Ac

tivity

Av

aila

ble

Sea

t Mile

sP

essi

mis

tic1,

066

1,09

41,

186

1,33

71,

499

1,67

42.

6%1.

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0%2.

1%2.

1%(B

IL)

Bas

elin

e1,

066

1,09

41,

252

1,40

11,

591

1,80

62.

6%2.

7%2.

5%2.

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5%O

ptim

istic

1,06

61,

094

1,28

91,

475

1,70

21,

952

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R

even

ue P

asse

nger

Mile

sP

essi

mis

tic88

992

11,

002

1,13

11,

269

1,41

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11,

058

1,18

61,

348

1,53

13.

6%2.

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6%2.

6%O

ptim

istic

889

921

1,09

01,

250

1,44

41,

657

3.6%

3.4%

3.1%

3.0%

3.0%

Enp

lane

men

tsP

essi

mis

tic78

681

985

493

81,

026

1,11

94.

2%0.

8%1.

4%1.

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IL)

Bas

elin

e78

681

991

699

81,

111

1,24

04.

2%2.

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ptim

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786

819

951

1,06

71,

213

1,37

24.

2%3.

0%2.

7%2.

7%2.

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Psg

r Car

rier M

iles

Flow

nP

essi

mis

tic7,

152

7,28

27,

578

8,33

49,

135

9,98

21.

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6%(M

IL)

Bas

elin

e7,

152

7,28

28,

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8,79

59,

787

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Opt

imis

tic7,

152

7,28

28,

340

9,32

910

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11,9

191.

8%2.

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P

sgr C

arrie

r Dep

artu

res

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sim

istic

8,91

38,

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9,02

49,

648

10,1

8210

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%0.

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00s)

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elin

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8,94

39,

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11,9

390.

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5%O

ptim

istic

8,91

38,

972

10,0

2910

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12,0

6213

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0.7%

2.3%

2.1%

2.0%

2.0%

Nom

inal

Pas

seng

er Y

ield

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sim

istic

14.3

613

.71

16.4

118

.91

21.3

624

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-4.6

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3%3.

0%2.

9%(c

ents

)B

asel

ine

14.3

613

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16.0

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ptim

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14.3

614

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clud

es d

omes

tic a

nd in

tern

atio

nal a

ctiv

ity.

52

TAB

LE A

-3

FAA

FORE

CAS

T O

F D

OM

ESTI

C A

VIAT

ION

ACTI

VITY

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

5-20

36

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

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ble

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ario

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1620

2120

2620

3120

3620

15-1

620

16-2

120

16-2

620

16-3

120

16-3

6Do

mes

ticAv

iatio

n Ac

tivity

Av

aila

ble

Sea

t Mile

sP

essi

mis

tic74

476

978

886

394

21,

023

3.4%

0.5%

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(BIL

)B

asel

ine

744

769

854

927

1,03

31,

156

3.4%

2.1%

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2.0%

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Opt

imis

tic74

476

989

21,

001

1,14

31,

301

3.4%

3.0%

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even

ue P

asse

nger

Mile

sP

essi

mis

tic62

965

467

674

381

388

54.

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IL)

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elin

e62

965

473

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889

299

94.

1%2.

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0%2.

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ptim

istic

629

654

765

862

987

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2%2.

8%2.

8%2.

7%

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lane

men

tsP

essi

mis

tic69

672

674

180

386

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14.

2%0.

4%1.

0%1.

2%1.

3%(M

IL)

Bas

elin

e69

672

680

386

395

11,

052

4.2%

2.0%

1.7%

1.8%

1.9%

Opt

imis

tic69

672

683

893

11,

053

1,18

34.

2%2.

9%2.

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5%2.

5%

Psg

r Car

rier M

iles

Flow

nP

essi

mis

tic5,

655

5,77

45,

753

6,17

16,

608

7,05

92.

1%-0

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0.7%

0.9%

1.0%

(MIL

)B

asel

ine

5,65

55,

774

6,23

76,

629

7,25

67,

978

2.1%

1.6%

1.4%

1.5%

1.6%

O

ptim

istic

5,65

55,

774

6,51

07,

160

8,03

48,

983

2.1%

2.4%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

Psg

r Car

rier D

epar

ture

sP

essi

mis

tic8,

273

8,22

18,

251

8,74

29,

126

9,51

2-0

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0.1%

0.6%

0.7%

0.7%

(000

s)B

asel

ine

8,27

38,

289

8,90

69,

365

9,98

610

,703

0.2%

1.4%

1.2%

1.2%

1.3%

Opt

imis

tic8,

273

8,31

99,

250

10,0

7910

,994

11,9

600.

5%2.

1%1.

9%1.

9%1.

8%

Nom

inal

Pas

seng

er Y

ield

Pes

sim

istic

14.4

413

.73

17.0

820

.16

23.2

726

.98

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%4.

5%3.

9%3.

6%3.

4%(c

ents

)B

asel

ine

14.4

414

.12

16.5

218

.83

20.3

522

.06

-2.3

%3.

2%2.

9%2.

5%2.

3%O

ptim

istic

14.4

414

.34

16.2

318

.59

19.7

921

.24

-0.7

%2.

5%2.

6%2.

2%2.

0%

53

TA

BLE

A-4

FAA

FORE

CAS

T O

F IN

TERN

ATIO

NAL

AVIA

TIO

N AC

TIVI

TY*

FISC

AL Y

EARS

201

5-20

36

Hist

oric

alFO

RECA

STPE

RCEN

T AV

ERAG

E AN

NUAL

GRO

WTH

Varia

ble

Scen

ario

2015

E20

1620

2120

2620

3120

3620

15-1

620

16-2

120

16-2

620

16-3

120

16-3

6In

tern

atio

nal

Avia

tion

Activ

ity

Avai

labl

e S

eat M

iles

Pes

sim

istic

323

325

397

474

558

650

0.8%

4.1%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

(BIL

)B

asel

ine

323

325

398

474

558

650

0.8%

4.1%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

Opt

imis

tic32

332

539

847

455

865

10.

8%4.

1%3.

8%3.

7%3.

5%

Rev

enue

Pas

seng

er M

iles

Pes

sim

istic

260

266

325

388

456

531

2.2%

4.1%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

(BIL

)B

asel

ine

260

266

325

388

456

532

2.2%

4.1%

3.8%

3.7%

3.5%

Opt

imis

tic26

026

632

538

845

653

22.

2%4.

1%3.

8%3.

7%3.

5%

Enp

lane

men

tsP

essi

mis

tic89

9311

313

516

018

84.

3%3.

9%3.

8%3.

7%3.

6%(M

IL)

Bas

elin

e89

9311

313

516

018

84.

3%3.

9%3.

8%3.

7%3.

6%O

ptim

istic

8993

113

135

160

189

4.3%

4.0%

3.8%

3.7%

3.6%

Psg

r Car

rier M

iles

Flow

nP

essi

mis

tic14

9715

0818

2621

6325

2729

230.

8%3.

9%3.

7%3.

5%3.

4%(M

IL)

Bas

elin

e14

9715

0818

2921

6625

3129

290.

8%3.

9%3.

7%3.

5%3.

4%

Opt

imis

tic14

9715

0818

3021

6925

3629

360.

8%3.

9%3.

7%3.

5%3.

4%

P

sgr C

arrie

r Dep

artu

res

Pes

sim

istic

640

654

772

906

1056

1228

2.1%

3.4%

3.3%

3.2%

3.2%

(000

s)B

asel

ine

640

654

777

910

1062

1236

2.1%

3.5%

3.4%

3.3%

3.2%

Opt

imis

tic64

065

477

991

510

6912

452.

1%3.

6%3.

4%3.

3%3.

3%

Nom

inal

Pas

seng

er Y

ield

Pes

sim

istic

14.1

613

.66

15.0

116

.51

17.9

519

.52

-3.6

%1.

9%1.

9%1.

8%1.

8%(c

ents

)B

asel

ine

14.1

613

.66

15.0

116

.50

17.9

519

.50

-3.6

%1.

9%1.

9%1.

8%1.

8%O

ptim

istic

14.1

613

.66

15.0

116

.50

17.9

419

.50

-3.6

%1.

9%1.

9%1.

8%1.

8%

*Inc

lude

s m

ainl

ine

and

regi

onal

car

riers

.

54

Appendix B: FAA Forecast Accuracy

Forecasts, by their nature, have a degree of uncertainty incorporated in them. They in-volve not only statistical analyses and vari-ous scientific methods, but also judgment and reliance on industry knowledge and the forecaster’s experience to incorporate in-dustry trends not yet reflected in recent re-sults. The FAA’s annual Aerospace Fore-cast is no exception. Given the volatile na-ture of the U.S. airline industry, it is not sur-prising that each year’s forecast would con-tain a certain degree of forecast variance. Therefore, FAA forecasters have tried to build forecast models that give a consistent and predictable pattern of results. Analysts relying on the forecasts produced by the models would then be able to adjust for the predictable variance from actual results.

The table below presents an analysis of the variance from historical results for a primary forecast assumption along with five key forecast metrics during the FY 2005-2015 forecast period. Although this period has experienced industry upheaval, the FAA’s forecast methodology remained consistent during this time. For this reason, inclusion of prior periods in an analysis of forecast variance might lead to inconclusive or inac-curate implications about the accuracy of FAA’s current forecast methodology.

The table below contains the mean ab-solute percent errors for the projected val-ues versus the actual results for U.S. carri-ers’ system operations along with the pro-jected values versus actual results for U.S. GDP. Each metric has five values showing the relative forecast variance by the number of years in advance the preparation of the forecast took place. For example, the “3

Years” column for ASMs shows that the mean absolute percent error was 6.9 per-cent for ASM forecasts prepared 3 years in advance. For the period under examination, preparation of the forecasts for FY 2005 through FY 2015 occurred in FY 2001 through FY 2014. 8

8 It should be noted that the first forecasted year for each respective fiscal year is that very same year. Therefore, FY 2003’s first forecasted year is FY 2003, and the third forecasted year is FY 2005.

55

Presenting forecast variances from actual data in such a manner simplifies a review of longer-term trends. Typically, one would expect the variances to de-crease as the forecast year is closer to the year the fore-cast is prepared. Presenting forecast vari-ances in this way allows an examination of changes in the relative variances by time horizon, signaling when dramatic shifts in accuracy occur. Examination of the forecast variances re-veals several items. First, the forecast vari-ances for GDP, a key exogenous variable, are similar to the variances of the key traffic measures, Passenger Enplanements and RPMs. This suggests that a substantial amount of the forecast variance for the traf-fic variables may be attributed to the fore-cast error in the exogenous variables. Sec-

ond, all the metrics examined show increas-ing variances as the forecast time horizon lengthens. Third, the variance in the IFR handled aircraft up to 3 years out is more than 1.5 percentage points larger than the ASM forecast variance. This suggests that within a 3 year forecast horizon carriers have been able to accommodate changes in capacity by means other than adjusting op-erations. Many carriers have been system-atically reducing the number smaller region-al jets in their fleets, replacing them with larger 70-90 seat aircraft. This has allowed carriers to increase capacity without in-creasing flights. However the forecast vari-ance in these two metrics narrows as the time horizon increases suggesting that over the long run ASM growth is a good indicator of operations growth.

Mean Absolute Percent Error (Combined FY 2005 - FY 2015)Forecast (Forecast Variance from Actual)Variable Forecast Performed Years Prior to Actual

1 Year 2 Years 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years

U.S. Real GDP 2.0% 3.4% 5.3% 7.1% 8.3%ASMs 0.8% 3.8% 6.9% 10.4% 15.8%RPMs 1.1% 3.0% 5.5% 8.0% 11.7%Passenger Enplanements 1.0% 2.7% 5.4% 7.8% 11.6%Mainline Domestic Yield 3.4% 4.7% 6.4% 8.1% 10.4%IFR Aircraft Handled* 2.2% 5.5% 8.4% 11.5% 15.9%*Total - scheduled and nonscheduled commercial plus noncommercial

SYSTEM SCHEDULED PASSENGER ACTIVITYFORECAST EVALUATION

U.S. AIR CARRIERS

56

Appendix C: Forecast Tables

57

TAB

LE 1

U.S.

SHO

RT-

TER

M E

CO

NOM

IC F

OR

ECA

STS

EC

ON

OM

ICFI

SC

AL

YE

AR

201

5FI

SC

AL

YE

AR

201

6FI

SC

AL

YE

AR

201

7V

AR

IAB

LE1S

T. Q

TR.

2ND

. QTR

.3R

D Q

TR.

4TH

. QTR

.1S

T. Q

TR.

2ND

. QTR

.3R

D Q

TR.

4TH

. QTR

.1S

T. Q

TR.

2ND

. QTR

.3R

D Q

TR.

4TH

. QTR

.

Real

Per

sona

l Con

sum

ptio

n Ex

pend

iture

per

Cap

ita

(2

009

$)34

,440

34,5

3334

,767

34,9

5635

,145

35,3

2335

,520

35,7

4135

,954

36,1

8236

,399

36,5

89A

nnua

l rat

e - n

ot s

easo

nally

adj

uste

d1.

1%2.

7%2.

2%2.

2%2.

0%2.

2%2.

5%2.

4%2.

6%2.

4%2.

1%

Refin

ers'

Acqu

isiti

on C

ost -

Ave

rage

(Dol

lars

per

bar

rel)

73.7

848

.01

57.4

347

.61

38.1

137

.70

43.0

553

.75

55.7

953

.36

57.3

262

.98

Ann

ual r

ate

- not

sea

sona

lly a

djus

ted

-82.

1%10

4.8%

-52.

8%-5

8.9%

-4.2

%70

.1%

143.

0%16

.0%

-16.

3%33

.2%

45.7

%

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dex

(198

2-84

equ

als

100)

237.

023

5.2

236.

923

7.9

237.

723

7.5

238.

824

1.6

243.

424

4.3

246.

224

8.2

Sea

sona

lly A

djus

ted

Ann

ual R

ate

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3%4.

6%3.

1%1.

5%3.

1%3.

3%S

ourc

e: IH

S G

loba

l Ins

ight

58

TAB

LE 2

U.S.

LO

NG-T

ERM

EC

ONO

MIC

FO

REC

AST

S

RE

AL

GR

OS

SR

EA

L P

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AIN

DE

XA

VE

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AR

(Bill

ions

200

9 $)

(200

9 $)

(198

2-84

=1.0

0)(D

olla

rs p

er b

arre

l)H

isto

rical

2001

12,6

7629

,227

1.76

25.8

0

2008

14,9

3433

,049

2.14

101.

5220

0914

,428

32,0

982.

1454

.68

2010

14,6

8532

,186

2.17

74.6

120

1114

,958

32,7

872.

2396

.00

2012

15,3

0633

,033

2.29

102.

8120

1315

,489

33,2

692.

3210

0.78

2014

15,8

6433

,837

2.36

97.7

920

15E

16,2

7034

,674

2.37

56.7

1

Fore

cast

2016

16,6

7535

,433

2.39

43.1

520

1717

,184

36,2

822.

4657

.36

2018

17,6

4837

,068

2.52

62.4

520

1918

,099

37,8

252.

5869

.03

2020

18,5

6738

,464

2.64

75.6

9

2021

18,9

8339

,056

2.70

82.6

220

2219

,391

39,6

362.

7892

.31

2023

19,8

0940

,172

2.85

105.

1620

2420

,246

40,7

232.

9311

6.80

2025

20,6

8241

,306

3.00

124.

41

2026

21,1

2441

,912

3.07

128.

9820

2721

,588

42,5

203.

1413

2.31

2028

22,0

5543

,226

3.21

134.

9120

2922

,541

43,9

633.

2813

6.39

2030

23,0

3344

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3.36

137.

57

2031

23,5

3145

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3.44

138.

7820

3224

,035

46,2

283.

5113

9.94

2033

24,5

5847

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3.60

142.

3720

3425

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47,8

303.

6814

5.35

2035

25,6

4948

,627

3.77

148.

9720

3626

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49,4

293.

8515

2.26

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

8%1.

2%2.

1%5.

8%20

15-1

62.

5%2.

2%0.

9%-2

3.9%

2015

-25

2.4%

1.8%

2.4%

8.2%

2015

-36

2.3%

1.7%

2.3%

4.8%

Sou

rce:

IHS

Glo

bal I

nsig

ht

59

TAB

LE 3

INTE

RNA

TIO

NAL

GD

P FO

REC

AST

S B

Y TR

AVE

L R

EGIO

N

GR

OS

S D

OM

ES

TIC

PR

OD

UC

T(In

Bill

ions

of 2

010

U.S

. Dol

lars

)

CA

LEN

DA

R Y

EA

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AN

AD

A

EU

RO

PE

/ A

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A/ M

IDD

LE

EA

ST

LATI

N A

ME

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A /

CA

RIB

BE

AN

/ M

EXI

CO

JAP

AN

/ P

AC

IFIC

B

AS

IN /

CH

INA

/ O

THE

R A

SIA

/ A

US

TRA

LIA

/ N

EW

ZE

ALA

ND

WO

RLD

His

toric

al20

011,

359

20,2

793,

835

12,1

0850

,418

2008

1,60

525

,004

5,01

117

,110

63,7

4120

091,

561

24,1

404,

950

17,4

4062

,686

2010

1,61

424

,863

5,24

718

,736

65,4

2420

111,

662

25,5

015,

488

19,6

2367

,477

2012

1,69

425

,703

5,64

420

,554

69,1

3720

131,

728

25,9

445,

801

21,5

3370

,778

2014

1,77

026

,371

5,86

522

,459

72,6

2020

15E

1,78

926

,777

5,83

923

,402

74,3

55

Fore

cast

2016

1,82

027

,296

5,84

624

,391

76,3

7320

171,

861

27,9

235,

956

25,4

5578

,697

2018

1,90

428

,606

6,10

626

,603

81,1

8920

191,

949

29,2

886,

284

27,8

7083

,821

2020

1,99

330

,010

6,47

729

,190

86,5

61

2021

2,03

730

,746

6,67

330

,572

89,3

3320

222,

080

31,4

876,

881

31,9

9292

,163

2023

2,12

332

,235

7,09

933

,437

95,0

5520

242,

166

32,9

937,

323

34,9

2098

,006

2025

2,21

033

,751

7,55

436

,413

100,

970

2026

2,25

434

,503

7,78

737

,930

103,

973

2027

2,29

835

,267

8,02

739

,467

107,

033

2028

2,34

336

,043

8,27

541

,002

110,

127

2029

2,38

836

,829

8,53

142

,529

113,

240

2030

2,43

637

,630

8,79

344

,047

116,

370

2031

2,48

338

,439

9,06

545

,599

119,

560

2032

2,53

239

,251

9,34

547

,155

122,

775

2033

2,58

240

,076

9,63

348

,761

126,

074

2034

2,63

340

,912

9,92

950

,370

129,

416

2035

2,68

541

,757

10,2

3351

,998

132,

810

2036

2,73

942

,615

10,5

4653

,671

136,

273

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

52.

0%2.

0%3.

3%4.

9%2.

8%20

15-1

61.

8%3.

5%-0

.3%

8.6%

5.2%

2015

-25

2.1%

2.5%

2.6%

5.0%

3.4%

2015

-36

2.0%

2.3%

2.8%

4.2%

3.0%

Sou

rce:

G

loba

l Ins

ight

web

site

, GD

P C

ompo

nent

s Ta

bles

(Int

erim

For

ecas

t, M

onth

ly)

60

TAB

LE 4

INTE

RNA

TIO

NAL

GD

P FO

REC

AST

S –

SELE

CTE

D A

REA

S/C

OUN

TRIE

S

GR

OS

S D

OM

ES

TIC

PR

OD

UC

T(In

Bill

ions

of 2

010

U.S

. Dol

lars

)N

OR

THC

ALE

ND

AR

AM

ER

ICA

UN

ITE

DY

EA

R(N

AFT

A)

EU

RO

ZON

EK

ING

DO

MJA

PA

NC

HIN

AH

isto

rical

2001

15,0

7211

,486

2,10

85,

125

2,41

0

2008

17,6

6612

,983

2,47

15,

569

4,99

920

0917

,156

12,4

002,

367

5,26

25,

461

2010

17,6

3012

,648

2,40

45,

510

6,04

120

1117

,960

12,8

612,

451

5,48

96,

614

2012

18,3

7412

,764

2,48

05,

585

7,12

520

1318

,655

12,7

352,

533

5,67

17,

673

2014

19,1

0512

,847

2,60

85,

663

8,23

120

15E

19,5

4213

,044

2,67

15,

692

8,79

1

Fore

cast

2016

20,0

7413

,264

2,73

55,

750

9,34

320

1720

,630

13,4

992,

803

5,78

49,

938

2018

21,1

8213

,723

2,87

05,

824

10,5

7620

1921

,736

13,9

232,

933

5,89

611

,260

2020

22,2

9314

,141

3,00

05,

958

11,9

87

2021

22,7

9714

,364

3,06

96,

017

12,7

5820

2223

,306

14,5

843,

136

6,07

413

,538

2023

23,8

3614

,802

3,20

46,

131

14,3

2220

2424

,373

15,0

233,

271

6,18

715

,141

2025

24,9

0815

,238

3,33

96,

243

15,9

59

2026

25,4

6015

,455

3,40

76,

299

16,7

9120

2726

,031

15,6

733,

478

6,35

217

,632

2028

26,6

1715

,891

3,54

86,

404

18,4

5920

2927

,216

16,1

123,

621

6,45

519

,260

2030

27,8

1916

,334

3,69

56,

504

20,0

45

2031

28,4

3316

,559

3,77

06,

550

20,8

5020

3229

,057

16,7

813,

848

6,59

621

,639

2033

29,6

9817

,006

3,92

66,

641

22,4

5220

3430

,359

17,2

344,

005

6,68

423

,251

2035

31,0

3917

,461

4,08

56,

727

24,0

4720

3631

,724

17,6

884,

167

6,76

724

,863

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

9%0.

9%1.

7%0.

8%9.

7%20

15-1

62.

7%1.

7%2.

4%1.

0%6.

3%20

15-2

52.

5%1.

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15-3

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8%5.

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ourc

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bal I

nsig

ht w

ebsi

te, G

DP

Com

pone

nts

Tabl

es (I

nter

im F

orec

ast,

Mon

thly

)

61

TAB

LE 5

U.S.

CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S1

TOTA

L SC

HED

ULED

U.S

. PA

SSEN

GER

TR

AFF

IC

FIS

CA

LR

EV

EN

UE

PA

SS

EN

GE

R E

NP

LAN

EM

EN

TS (M

illio

ns)

RE

VE

NU

E P

AS

SE

NG

ER

MIL

ES

(Bill

ions

)Y

EA

RD

OM

ES

TIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

TOTA

L D

OM

ES

TIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

TOTA

LH

isto

rical

2001

625

5768

250

818

369

1

2008

681

7875

959

523

482

820

0963

174

704

549

221

770

2010

635

7771

255

523

178

620

1165

081

731

572

242

815

2012

654

8373

757

824

482

220

1365

485

739

584

250

834

2014

669

8875

760

025

785

720

15E

696

8978

662

926

088

9

Fore

cast

2016

726

9381

965

426

692

120

1774

297

839

670

277

947

2018

760

101

860

688

289

977

2019

776

105

881

704

301

1,00

620

2079

010

989

971

931

31,

033

2021

803

113

916

733

325

1,05

820

2281

411

793

174

533

71,

083

2023

824

122

945

756

350

1,10

620

2483

512

696

176

836

21,

131

2025

848

131

979

783

375

1,15

8

2026

863

135

998

798

388

1,18

620

2787

814

01,

018

814

401

1,21

520

2889

514

51,

040

833

414

1,24

720

2991

415

01,

063

852

428

1,28

020

3093

215

51,

087

872

442

1,31

4

2031

951

160

1,11

189

245

61,

348

2032

971

165

1,13

691

347

11,

384

2033

991

171

1,16

293

448

51,

420

2034

1,01

117

61,

188

956

500

1,45

620

351,

031

182

1,21

397

751

61,

493

2036

1,05

218

81,

240

999

532

1,53

1

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

50.

8%3.

3%1.

0%1.

5%2.

5%1.

8%20

15-1

64.

2%4.

3%4.

2%4.

1%2.

2%3.

6%20

15-2

52.

0%3.

9%2.

2%2.

2%3.

7%2.

7%20

15-3

62.

0%3.

6%2.

2%2.

2%3.

5%2.

6%S

ourc

e: F

orm

s 41

and

298

-C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Reg

iona

l Air

Car

riers

.

62

TAB

LE 6

U.S.

CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S1

SCHE

DUL

ED P

ASS

ENG

ER C

APA

CIT

Y, T

RA

FFIC

, AND

LO

AD

FA

CTO

RS

DO

ME

STI

CIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LS

YS

TEM

FIS

CA

LA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

AS

Ms

RP

Ms

% L

OA

DA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

YE

AR

(BIL

)(B

IL)

FAC

TOR

(BIL

)(B

IL)

FAC

TOR

(BIL

)(B

IL)

FAC

TOR

His

toric

al20

0173

150

869

.424

718

374

.397

869

170

.6

2008

750

595

79.3

293

234

79.9

1,04

282

879

.520

0968

254

980

.428

322

178

.196

677

079

.720

1067

955

581

.728

123

182

.196

178

681

.820

1169

357

282

.530

024

280

.799

481

582

.020

1269

457

883

.230

024

481

.499

582

282

.620

1370

058

483

.430

325

082

.61,

003

834

83.2

2014

711

600

84.4

315

257

81.4

1,02

685

783

.520

15E

744

629

84.5

323

260

80.7

1,06

688

983

.4

Fore

cast

2016

769

654

85.1

325

266

81.9

1,09

492

184

.220

1778

567

085

.333

927

781

.91,

124

947

84.3

2018

805

688

85.5

353

289

81.9

1,15

897

784

.420

1982

370

485

.636

830

181

.81,

191

1,00

684

.420

2083

971

985

.738

331

381

.81,

222

1,03

384

.5

2021

854

733

85.8

398

325

81.8

1,25

21,

058

84.5

2022

868

745

85.9

412

337

81.8

1,28

01,

083

84.6

2023

880

756

86.0

428

350

81.8

1,30

71,

106

84.6

2024

893

768

86.0

443

362

81.8

1,33

61,

131

84.6

2025

909

783

86.1

458

375

81.8

1,36

81,

158

84.6

2026

927

798

86.1

474

388

81.8

1,40

11,

186

84.7

2027

945

814

86.2

490

401

81.8

1,43

51,

215

84.7

2028

966

833

86.2

507

414

81.8

1,47

31,

247

84.7

2029

988

852

86.3

524

428

81.8

1,51

21,

280

84.7

2030

1,01

087

286

.354

144

281

.81,

551

1,31

484

.7

2031

1,03

389

286

.355

845

681

.81,

591

1,34

884

.720

321,

057

913

86.4

576

471

81.7

1,63

31,

384

84.7

2033

1,08

293

486

.459

448

581

.71,

676

1,42

084

.720

341,

106

956

86.4

612

500

81.7

1,71

91,

456

84.7

2035

1,13

197

786

.463

151

681

.71,

762

1,49

384

.720

361,

156

999

86.5

650

532

81.7

1,80

61,

531

84.7

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

50.

1%1.

5%1.

9%2.

5%0.

6%1.

8%20

15-1

63.

4%4.

1%0.

8%2.

2%2.

6%3.

6%20

15-2

52.

0%2.

2%3.

6%3.

7%2.

5%2.

7%20

15-3

62.

1%2.

2%3.

4%3.

5%2.

5%2.

6%S

ourc

e: F

orm

s 41

and

298

-C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Reg

iona

l Air

Car

riers

.

63

TAB

LE 7

U.S.

CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S1

TOTA

L SC

HED

ULED

U.S

. INT

ERNA

TIO

NAL

PASS

ENG

ER T

RA

FFIC

RE

VE

NU

E P

AS

SE

NG

ER

EN

PLA

NE

ME

NTS

RE

VE

NU

E P

AS

SE

NG

ER

MIL

ES

LATI

NTO

TAL

LATI

NTO

TAL

FIS

CA

LA

TLA

NTI

CA

ME

RIC

AP

AC

IFIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

ATL

AN

TIC

AM

ER

ICA

PA

CIF

ICIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LY

EA

R(M

il)(M

il)(M

il)(M

il)(B

il)(B

il)(B

il)(B

il)H

isto

rical

2001

2023

1155

8637

5918

3

2008

2639

1378

113

6160

234

2009

2537

1274

109

5855

221

2010

2540

1377

109

6359

231

2011

2542

1481

112

6764

242

2012

2544

1483

108

7066

244

2013

2546

1485

107

7569

250

2014

2549

1488

108

8069

257

2015

E25

5114

8910

783

7126

0

Fore

cast

2016

2554

1493

108

8673

266

2017

2656

1597

113

8975

277

2018

2758

1510

111

894

7728

920

1928

6115

105

123

9980

301

2020

2964

1610

912

710

482

313

2021

3067

1611

313

210

984

325

2022

3170

1711

713

611

487

337

2023

3273

1712

114

112

089

350

2024

3376

1812

614

512

592

362

2025

3379

1813

014

913

195

375

2026

3482

1913

515

413

797

388

2027

3586

1914

015

814

310

040

120

2836

8920

145

162

149

103

414

2029

3793

2015

016

715

610

642

820

3038

9621

155

172

162

108

442

2031

3910

021

160

176

169

111

456

2032

4010

422

165

181

176

114

471

2033

4110

822

171

186

183

117

485

2034

4211

223

176

191

190

120

500

2035

4311

623

182

196

197

123

516

2036

4412

024

188

201

205

126

531

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

3%5.

8%1.

5%3.

5%1.

5%5.

9%1.

3%2.

6%20

15-1

62.

1%5.

9%2.

0%4.

3%0.

9%3.

5%2.

8%2.

2%20

15-2

53.

1%4.

5%2.

6%3.

9%3.

4%4.

7%2.

9%3.

7%20

15-3

62.

8%4.

2%2.

6%3.

6%3.

1%4.

4%2.

8%3.

5%S

ourc

e: F

orm

s 41

and

298

-C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

1 Sum

of U

.S. M

ainl

ine

and

Reg

iona

l Air

Car

riers

.

64

TAB

LE 8

U.S.

AND

FO

REI

GN

FLA

G C

AR

RIE

RS

TOTA

L PA

SSEN

GER

TR

AFF

IC T

O/F

RO

M T

HE U

NITE

D S

TATE

S

TOTA

L P

AS

SE

NG

ER

S B

Y W

OR

LD T

RA

VE

L A

RE

A (M

illio

ns)

CA

LEN

DA

RU

.S./C

AN

AD

AY

EA

RA

TLA

NTI

CLA

TIN

AM

ER

ICA

PA

CIF

ICTR

AN

SB

OR

DE

RTO

TAL

His

toric

al20

0147

3923

1912

9

2008

5750

2622

154

2009

5548

2420

148

2010

5653

2722

157

2011

5857

2823

166

2012

6161

3125

177

2013

6365

3226

186

2014

6669

3428

197

2015

E69

7335

2920

6

Fore

cast

2016

7277

3629

214

2017

7578

3830

221

2018

7880

4032

230

2019

8183

4133

239

2020

8587

4334

249

2021

8890

4535

259

2022

9194

4737

269

2023

9598

4938

280

2024

9810

251

3929

120

2510

210

653

4130

2

2026

105

111

5542

314

2027

109

116

5843

326

2028

113

121

6045

338

2029

117

126

6246

351

2030

121

131

6448

364

2031

125

137

6650

377

2032

129

142

6851

391

2033

134

148

7053

405

2034

138

155

7255

420

2035

143

161

7457

436

2036

148

168

7759

452

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

52.

7%4.

6%3.

0%2.

9%3.

4%20

15-1

63.

5%4.

7%2.

8%1.

6%3.

5%20

15-2

53.

9%3.

8%4.

3%3.

5%3.

9%20

15-3

63.

7%4.

0%3.

8%3.

5%3.

8%S

ourc

e: U

S C

usto

ms

& B

orde

r Pro

tect

ion

data

pro

cess

ed a

nd re

leas

ed b

y D

epar

tmen

t of C

omm

erce

; da

ta a

lso

rece

ived

from

Tra

nspo

rt C

anad

a.

65

TAB

LE 9

U.S.

CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S' F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS1

SEA

TS P

ER A

IRC

RA

FT M

ILE

AND

PA

SSEN

GER

TR

IP L

ENG

TH

AV

ER

AG

E S

EA

TS P

ER

AIR

CR

AFT

MIL

EA

VE

RA

GE

PA

SS

EN

GE

R T

RIP

LE

NG

THFI

SC

AL

DO

ME

STI

CIN

T'L.

SY

STE

MD

OM

ES

TIC

INT'

L.S

YS

TEM

YE

AR

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Mile

s)(M

iles)

(Mile

s)H

isto

rical

2001

128

227

143

812

3,23

41,

013

2008

121

219

138

874

2,98

51,

091

2009

122

219

140

870

3,00

81,

093

2010

122

216

140

875

2,98

81,

104

2011

123

217

141

880

2,99

31,

114

2012

123

214

141

884

2,95

11,

116

2013

125

214

143

894

2,94

21,

130

2014

127

215

146

897

2,91

71,

132

2015

E13

221

614

990

32,

912

1,13

1

Fore

cast

2016

133

216

150

902

2,85

61,

124

2017

134

216

151

903

2,86

81,

130

2018

135

217

152

905

2,87

21,

135

2019

136

217

153

908

2,87

41,

142

2020

136

217

154

910

2,87

41,

148

2021

137

217

155

913

2,87

61,

155

2022

138

218

156

915

2,87

81,

162

2023

138

218

157

918

2,87

91,

170

2024

139

218

158

920

2,87

61,

177

2025

139

219

159

923

2,87

31,

183

2026

140

219

159

925

2,87

01,

189

2027

140

219

160

928

2,86

71,

194

2028

141

220

161

930

2,86

41,

199

2029

141

220

161

933

2,86

01,

204

2030

142

220

162

935

2,85

71,

209

2031

142

220

163

938

2,85

31,

213

2032

143

221

163

940

2,85

01,

218

2033

143

221

164

943

2,84

41,

222

2034

144

221

164

945

2,83

81,

226

2035

144

222

165

948

2,83

11,

231

2036

145

222

166

950

2,82

51,

235

Sou

rce:

For

ms

41 a

nd 2

98-C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.1 S

um o

f U.S

. Mai

nlin

e an

d R

egio

nal A

ir C

arrie

rs.

66

TAB

LE 1

0

U. S

. MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

RS

SCHE

DUL

ED P

ASS

ENG

ER T

RA

FFIC

RE

VE

NU

E P

AS

SE

NG

ER

EN

PLA

NE

ME

NTS

RE

VE

NU

E P

AS

SE

NG

ER

MIL

ES

FIS

CA

L(M

illio

ns)

(Bill

ions

)Y

EA

RD

OM

ES

TIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

SY

STE

MD

OM

ES

TIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

SY

STE

MH

isto

rical

2001

545

5459

848

318

266

6

2008

522

7559

652

123

275

320

0947

771

548

478

220

698

2010

473

7554

848

023

071

020

1148

879

567

497

241

738

2012

495

8057

550

324

374

620

1349

882

580

511

248

759

2014

515

8560

052

725

578

220

15E

543

8763

155

625

981

5

Fore

cast

2016

572

9166

358

126

584

620

1758

494

679

595

276

871

2018

598

9869

761

128

889

820

1961

110

271

462

629

992

520

2062

310

772

963

931

295

0

2021

633

111

743

651

324

974

2022

642

115

756

661

336

997

2023

649

119

768

671

348

1,01

920

2465

812

378

168

236

11,

042

2025

668

128

796

694

373

1,06

7

2026

680

132

812

708

386

1,09

420

2769

213

782

972

239

91,

121

2028

706

142

848

738

412

1,15

120

2972

014

786

775

642

61,

182

2030

735

152

887

773

440

1,21

3

2031

750

157

907

791

454

1,24

520

3276

516

292

880

946

81,

277

2033

781

168

949

828

483

1,31

120

3479

717

397

084

749

81,

345

2035

813

179

992

866

514

1,37

920

3682

918

51,

014

885

529

1,41

4

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

50.

0%3.

5%0.

4%1.

0%2.

5%1.

5%20

15-1

65.

2%4.

4%5.

1%4.

6%2.

3%3.

8%20

15-2

52.

1%3.

9%2.

4%2.

2%3.

7%2.

7%20

15-3

62.

0%3.

6%2.

3%2.

2%3.

5%2.

7%S

ourc

e: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

67

TAB

LE 1

1

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

RS

SCHE

DUL

ED P

ASS

ENG

ER C

APA

CIT

Y, T

RA

FFIC

, AND

LO

AD

FA

CTO

RS

DO

ME

STI

CIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LS

YS

TEM

FIS

CA

LA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

AS

Ms

RP

Ms

% L

OA

DA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

YE

AR

(BIL

)(B

IL)

FAC

TOR

(BIL

)(B

IL)

FAC

TOR

(BIL

)(B

IL)

FAC

TOR

His

toric

al20

0169

048

370

.024

518

274

.493

566

671

.2

2008

650

521

80.2

290

232

80.0

940

753

80.1

2009

588

478

81.4

281

220

78.2

869

698

80.3

2010

581

480

82.7

279

230

82.2

860

710

82.5

2011

594

497

83.6

299

241

80.8

893

738

82.6

2012

599

503

84.1

298

243

81.5

896

746

83.2

2013

607

511

84.2

301

248

82.6

907

759

83.7

2014

620

527

85.0

313

255

81.4

933

782

83.8

2015

E65

355

685

.132

125

980

.897

481

583

.7

Fore

cast

2016

678

581

85.8

323

265

81.9

1,00

184

684

.520

1769

259

585

.933

727

681

.91,

029

871

84.6

2018

709

611

86.1

351

288

81.9

1,06

089

884

.720

1972

562

686

.336

629

981

.91,

091

925

84.8

2020

739

639

86.4

381

312

81.9

1,12

095

084

.9

2021

752

651

86.5

395

324

81.9

1,14

797

484

.920

2276

466

186

.641

033

681

.91,

174

997

84.9

2023

774

671

86.7

425

348

81.9

1,19

91,

019

85.0

2024

786

682

86.7

440

361

81.8

1,22

61,

042

85.0

2025

800

694

86.8

456

373

81.8

1,25

61,

067

85.0

2026

815

708

86.9

472

386

81.8

1,28

71,

094

85.0

2027

831

722

86.9

488

399

81.8

1,31

91,

121

85.0

2028

849

738

86.9

504

412

81.8

1,35

31,

151

85.0

2029

869

756

87.0

521

426

81.8

1,39

01,

182

85.0

2030

888

773

87.0

538

440

81.8

1,42

61,

213

85.1

2031

908

791

87.1

555

454

81.8

1,46

31,

245

85.1

2032

929

809

87.1

573

468

81.8

1,50

21,

277

85.1

2033

950

828

87.1

591

483

81.8

1,54

11,

311

85.1

2034

972

847

87.2

609

498

81.8

1,58

11,

345

85.1

2035

993

866

87.2

628

514

81.8

1,62

11,

379

85.1

2036

1,01

588

587

.264

752

981

.81,

662

1,41

485

.1

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-0

.4%

1.0%

1.9%

2.5%

0.6%

0.3%

1.5%

2015

-16

3.8%

4.6%

0.8%

2.3%

1.4%

2.8%

3.8%

2015

-25

2.0%

2.2%

3.6%

3.7%

0.1%

2.6%

2.7%

2015

-36

2.1%

2.2%

3.4%

3.5%

0.1%

2.6%

2.7%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

68

TAB

LE 1

2

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

RS

SCHE

DUL

ED IN

TER

NATI

ONA

L PA

SSEN

GER

ENP

LANE

MEN

TS

FIS

CA

LR

EV

EN

UE

PA

SS

EN

GE

R E

NP

LAN

EM

EN

TS (M

IL)

YE

AR

ATL

AN

TIC

LATI

N A

ME

RIC

AP

AC

IFIC

TOTA

LH

isto

rical

2001

2022

1154

2008

2636

1375

2009

2534

1271

2010

2537

1375

2011

2540

1479

2012

2541

1480

2013

2543

1482

2014

2546

1485

2015

E25

4914

87

Fore

cast

2016

2552

1491

2017

2654

1594

2018

2756

1598

2019

2859

1510

220

2029

6216

107

2021

3064

1611

120

2231

6717

115

2023

3270

1711

920

2433

7318

123

2025

3376

1812

8

2026

3480

1913

220

2735

8319

137

2028

3686

2014

220

2937

9020

147

2030

3893

2115

2

2031

3997

2115

720

3240

101

2216

220

3341

105

2216

820

3442

109

2317

320

3543

113

2317

920

3644

117

2418

5

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

3%5.

9%1.

5%3.

5%20

15-1

62.

1%6.

2%2.

0%4.

4%20

15-2

53.

1%4.

6%2.

6%3.

9%20

15-3

62.

8%4.

3%2.

6%3.

6%S

ourc

e: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

69

TAB

LE 1

3

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

RS

SCHE

DUL

ED P

ASS

ENG

ER C

APA

CIT

Y, T

RA

FFIC

, AND

LO

AD

FA

CTO

RS

BY

INTE

RNA

TIO

NAL

TRA

VEL

REG

IONS

ATL

AN

TIC

LATI

N A

ME

RIC

AP

AC

IFIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

FIS

CA

LA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

AS

Ms

RP

Ms

% L

OA

DA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

AS

Ms

RP

Ms

% L

OA

DY

EA

R(B

IL)

(BIL

)FA

CTO

R(B

IL)

(BIL

)FA

CTO

R(B

IL)

(BIL

)FA

CTO

R(B

IL)

(BIL

)FA

CTO

RH

isto

rical

2001

113

8676

.453

3769

.279

5975

.224

518

274

.4

2008

141

113

80.0

7459

79.3

7560

80.6

290

232

80.0

2009

138

109

78.9

7356

76.8

7055

78.3

281

220

78.2

2010

131

109

82.9

7862

79.2

7059

84.1

279

230

82.2

2011

138

112

80.7

8266

79.9

7864

81.8

299

241

80.8

2012

132

108

81.5

8468

80.9

8166

82.0

298

243

81.5

2013

128

107

83.3

9073

81.1

8369

83.1

301

248

82.6

2014

132

108

81.7

9778

80.6

8469

82.0

313

255

81.4

2015

E13

310

780

.010

181

80.3

8671

82.5

321

259

80.8

Fore

cast

2016

131

108

82.2

104

8480

.488

7383

.332

326

581

.920

1713

811

382

.210

988

80.4

9075

83.3

337

276

81.9

2018

144

118

82.2

114

9280

.493

7783

.335

128

881

.920

1915

012

382

.212

197

80.4

9580

83.3

366

299

81.9

2020

155

127

82.2

127

102

80.4

9882

83.3

381

312

81.9

2021

160

132

82.2

133

107

80.4

101

8483

.339

532

481

.920

2216

613

682

.214

011

280

.410

487

83.3

410

336

81.9

2023

171

141

82.2

147

118

80.4

107

8983

.342

534

881

.920

2417

614

582

.215

412

480

.411

092

83.3

440

361

81.8

2025

182

149

82.2

161

129

80.4

114

9583

.345

637

381

.8

2026

187

154

82.2

168

135

80.4

117

9783

.347

238

681

.820

2719

215

882

.217

514

180

.412

010

083

.348

839

981

.820

2819

816

282

.218

314

780

.412

310

383

.350

441

281

.820

2920

316

782

.219

115

480

.412

710

683

.352

142

681

.820

3020

917

282

.219

916

080

.413

010

883

.353

844

081

.8

2031

214

176

82.2

207

167

80.4

133

111

83.3

555

454

81.8

2032

220

181

82.2

216

173

80.4

137

114

83.3

573

468

81.8

2033

226

186

82.2

225

180

80.4

140

117

83.3

591

483

81.8

2034

232

191

82.2

233

188

80.4

144

120

83.3

609

498

81.8

2035

238

196

82.2

243

195

80.4

147

123

83.3

628

514

81.8

2036

244

201

82.2

252

203

80.4

151

126

83.3

647

529

81.8

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

2%1.

5%4.

7%5.

8%0.

6%1.

3%1.

9%2.

5%20

15-1

6-1

.8%

0.9%

3.4%

3.6%

1.8%

2.8%

0.8%

2.3%

2015

-25

3.1%

3.4%

4.8%

4.8%

2.8%

2.9%

3.6%

3.7%

2015

-36

2.9%

3.1%

4.4%

4.5%

2.7%

2.8%

3.4%

3.5%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

70

TAB

LE 1

4

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

R F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

SEA

TS P

ER A

IRC

RA

FT M

ILE

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

FIS

CA

LD

OM

ES

TIC

ATL

AN

TIC

LATI

N A

ME

RIC

AP

AC

IFIC

TOTA

LS

YS

TEM

YE

AR

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

(Sea

ts/M

ile)

His

toric

al20

0114

623

317

530

423

416

2

2008

150

229

177

292

225

167

2009

151

230

176

291

224

169

2010

152

232

172

287

221

169

2011

152

231

173

283

221

170

2012

153

230

172

278

219

170

2013

154

233

172

276

219

171

2014

155

236

173

276

220

172

2015

E15

823

717

427

222

017

4

Fore

cast

2016

158

238

174

273

220

174

2017

159

238

175

274

220

175

2018

160

239

175

274

220

176

2019

160

239

176

275

220

176

2020

161

240

176

276

221

177

2021

161

240

177

277

221

178

2022

162

241

177

277

221

179

2023

162

241

178

278

221

179

2024

163

242

178

279

222

180

2025

164

242

179

280

222

181

2026

164

243

179

280

222

181

2027

164

243

180

281

222

182

2028

165

244

180

282

223

183

2029

165

244

181

283

223

183

2030

166

245

181

283

223

184

2031

166

245

182

284

223

184

2032

167

246

182

285

224

185

2033

167

246

183

286

224

185

2034

168

247

183

286

224

186

2035

168

247

184

287

225

186

2036

168

248

184

288

225

187

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

71

TAB

LE 1

5

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

R F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

AVE

RA

GE

PASS

ENG

ER T

RIP

LEN

GTH

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

FIS

CA

LD

OM

ES

TIC

ATL

AN

TIC

LATI

N A

ME

RIC

AP

AC

IFIC

TOTA

LS

YS

TEM

YE

AR

(Mile

s)(M

iles)

(Mile

s)(M

iles)

(Mile

s)(M

iles)

His

toric

al20

0188

74,

212

1,68

85,

229

3,40

51,

013

2008

999

4,33

31,

652

4,58

33,

100

1,09

120

091,

003

4,40

21,

646

4,55

03,

098

1,09

320

101,

015

4,43

31,

660

4,58

73,

077

1,10

420

111,

017

4,41

51,

655

4,70

73,

068

1,11

420

121,

017

4,35

61,

668

4,72

53,

040

1,11

620

131,

026

4,31

31,

693

4,77

43,

023

1,13

020

141,

024

4,32

11,

696

4,91

02,

993

1,13

220

15E

1,02

34,

336

1,66

95,

080

2,96

91,

131

Fore

cast

2016

1,01

74,

287

1,62

85,

120

2,90

91,

124

2017

1,01

84,

309

1,63

65,

133

2,92

11,

130

2018

1,02

14,

330

1,64

45,

146

2,92

51,

135

2019

1,02

34,

352

1,65

25,

157

2,92

51,

142

2020

1,02

64,

374

1,66

05,

169

2,92

41,

148

2021

1,02

84,

391

1,66

95,

180

2,92

51,

155

2022

1,03

14,

409

1,67

75,

190

2,92

51,

162

2023

1,03

44,

427

1,68

55,

200

2,92

51,

170

2024

1,03

64,

444

1,69

05,

209

2,92

11,

177

2025

1,03

94,

462

1,69

45,

218

2,91

81,

183

2026

1,04

14,

475

1,69

85,

226

2,91

41,

189

2027

1,04

44,

489

1,70

25,

234

2,91

01,

194

2028

1,04

74,

502

1,70

75,

242

2,90

61,

199

2029

1,04

94,

516

1,71

15,

248

2,90

21,

204

2030

1,05

24,

525

1,71

55,

255

2,89

71,

209

2031

1,05

44,

534

1,71

95,

260

2,89

31,

213

2032

1,05

74,

543

1,72

45,

266

2,88

91,

218

2033

1,06

04,

552

1,72

55,

270

2,88

31,

222

2034

1,06

24,

557

1,72

75,

275

2,87

61,

226

2035

1,06

54,

561

1,72

95,

278

2,86

91,

231

2036

1,06

84,

566

1,73

15,

282

2,86

21,

235

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

72

TAB

LE 1

6

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

R F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

PASS

ENG

ER Y

IELD

S

RE

VE

NU

E P

ER

PA

SS

EN

GE

R M

ILE

D

OM

ES

TIC

INTE

RN

ATI

ON

AL

SY

STE

MFI

SC

AL

CU

RR

EN

T $

FY 2

015

$C

UR

RE

NT

$FY

201

5 $

CU

RR

EN

T $

FY

201

5 $

YE

AR

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(C

ents

)H

isto

rical

2001

13.5

418

.19

10.3

413

.89

13.3

617

.95

2008

13.1

114

.48

13.3

714

.77

13.9

015

.35

2009

11.9

513

.24

11.6

812

.94

12.3

513

.68

2010

12.6

213

.74

12.8

413

.98

12.9

814

.14

2011

13.6

214

.45

14.0

914

.95

13.9

014

.75

2012

14.0

814

.59

14.7

415

.27

14.1

914

.70

2013

14.4

214

.70

14.8

015

.09

14.2

814

.56

2014

15.1

115

.16

14.9

414

.98

14.7

414

.78

2015

E14

.73

14.7

314

.20

14.2

014

.36

14.3

6

Fore

cast

2016

14.3

914

.26

13.6

913

.57

13.9

813

.86

2017

15.1

914

.65

13.9

913

.49

14.6

314

.10

2018

15.5

814

.66

14.2

613

.41

14.9

714

.09

2019

15.9

914

.70

14.5

013

.33

15.3

214

.09

2020

16.4

014

.72

14.7

613

.25

15.6

814

.07

2021

16.8

314

.73

15.0

413

.17

16.0

514

.05

2022

17.3

514

.78

15.3

613

.09

16.4

914

.05

2023

17.9

214

.87

15.6

713

.01

16.9

614

.08

2024

18.4

314

.91

15.9

812

.93

17.4

014

.07

2025

18.8

514

.89

16.2

712

.85

17.7

614

.03

2026

19.1

914

.82

16.5

412

.77

18.0

713

.95

2027

19.5

214

.73

16.8

212

.69

18.3

713

.86

2028

19.8

414

.63

17.1

012

.61

18.6

613

.76

2029

20.1

414

.52

17.3

912

.54

18.9

513

.66

2030

20.4

314

.40

17.6

812

.47

19.2

313

.56

2031

20.7

414

.29

17.9

912

.40

19.5

313

.46

2032

21.0

514

.18

18.2

812

.32

19.8

313

.36

2033

21.3

914

.08

18.5

912

.24

20.1

513

.27

2034

21.7

413

.99

18.9

012

.16

20.4

813

.18

2035

22.1

213

.90

19.2

212

.08

20.8

213

.09

2036

22.4

913

.81

19.5

512

.01

21.1

713

.01

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

50.

6%-1

.5%

2.3%

0.2%

0.5%

-1.6

%20

15-1

6-2

.3%

-3.2

%-3

.6%

-4.5

%-2

.6%

-3.5

%20

15-2

52.

5%0.

1%1.

4%-1

.0%

2.1%

-0.2

%20

15-3

62.

0%-0

.3%

1.5%

-0.8

%1.

9%-0

.5%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

73

TAB

LE 1

7

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

R F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

INTE

RNA

TIO

NAL

PASS

ENG

ER Y

IELD

S B

Y R

EGIO

N

RE

VE

NU

E P

ER

PA

SS

EN

GE

R M

ILE

ATL

AN

TIC

LATI

N A

ME

RIC

AP

AC

IFIC

TOTA

L IN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LFI

SC

AL

CU

RR

EN

T $

FY 2

015

$C

UR

RE

NT

$FY

201

5 $

CU

RR

EN

T $

FY 2

015

$C

UR

RE

NT

$FY

201

5 $

YE

AR

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

His

toric

al20

019.

7113

.05

13.3

817

.97

9.38

12.6

010

.34

13.8

9

2008

13.2

914

.67

14.1

915

.67

12.7

314

.06

13.3

714

.77

2009

11.2

512

.46

12.9

914

.39

11.2

012

.40

11.6

812

.94

2010

12.7

313

.87

13.3

314

.52

12.5

013

.61

12.8

413

.98

2011

13.4

814

.31

15.1

316

.06

14.0

714

.93

14.0

914

.95

2012

13.9

514

.45

15.7

916

.35

14.9

515

.49

14.7

415

.27

2013

14.4

514

.73

15.8

016

.10

14.3

014

.57

14.8

015

.09

2014

14.8

414

.88

15.7

615

.81

14.1

514

.19

14.9

414

.98

2015

E14

.64

14.6

414

.50

14.5

013

.21

13.2

114

.20

14.2

0

Fore

cast

2016

14.5

514

.42

13.6

113

.48

12.5

312

.42

13.6

913

.57

2017

14.8

814

.34

13.8

613

.36

12.8

012

.34

13.9

913

.49

2018

15.1

714

.27

14.1

013

.26

13.0

512

.28

14.2

613

.41

2019

15.4

514

.20

14.3

013

.15

13.2

812

.21

14.5

013

.33

2020

15.7

414

.13

14.5

413

.05

13.5

312

.14

14.7

613

.25

2021

16.0

614

.06

14.7

812

.94

13.7

912

.07

15.0

413

.17

2022

16.4

113

.99

15.0

612

.84

14.0

912

.01

15.3

613

.09

2023

16.7

713

.92

15.3

412

.73

14.3

911

.94

15.6

713

.01

2024

17.1

213

.85

15.6

112

.63

14.6

811

.88

15.9

812

.93

2025

17.4

513

.78

15.8

512

.52

14.9

611

.82

16.2

712

.85

2026

17.7

613

.71

16.0

912

.42

15.2

311

.76

16.5

412

.77

2027

18.0

813

.64

16.3

312

.32

15.5

111

.70

16.8

212

.69

2028

18.4

113

.57

16.5

912

.23

15.7

811

.64

17.1

012

.61

2029

18.7

413

.51

16.8

412

.14

16.0

711

.59

17.3

912

.54

2030

19.0

613

.44

17.0

912

.05

16.3

611

.53

17.6

812

.47

2031

19.4

013

.37

17.3

711

.97

16.6

611

.48

17.9

912

.40

2032

19.7

513

.30

17.6

211

.87

16.9

611

.43

18.2

812

.32

2033

20.1

013

.24

17.8

711

.77

17.2

711

.37

18.5

912

.24

2034

20.4

713

.17

18.1

411

.67

17.6

011

.32

18.9

012

.16

2035

20.8

513

.11

18.4

111

.57

17.9

311

.27

19.2

212

.08

2036

21.2

313

.04

18.6

811

.47

19.2

611

.22

19.5

512

.01

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

53.

0%0.

8%0.

6%-1

.5%

2.5%

0.3%

2.3%

0.2%

2015

-16

-0.6

%-1

.5%

-6.2

%-7

.0%

-5.2

%-6

.0%

-3.6

%-4

.5%

2015

-25

1.8%

-0.6

%0.

9%-1

.5%

1.3%

-1.1

%1.

4%-1

.0%

2015

-36

1.8%

-0.5

%1.

2%-1

.1%

1.8%

-0.8

%1.

5%-0

.8%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

74

TAB

LE 1

8

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

R F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

JET

FUEL

PR

ICES

DO

ME

STI

CIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LS

YS

TEM

FIS

CA

LC

UR

RE

NT

$FY

201

5 $

CU

RR

EN

T $

FY 2

015

$C

UR

RE

NT

$

FY 2

015

$Y

EA

R(C

ents

)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

(C

ents

)(C

ents

)(C

ents

)H

isto

rical

2001

82.6

611

0.64

86.3

711

5.68

83.6

811

2.42

2008

292.

5332

3.01

314.

5734

7.35

299.

6533

0.88

2009

202.

0722

3.80

208.

2723

0.66

204.

1422

6.09

2010

219.

1623

8.67

220.

1223

9.71

219.

4923

9.02

2011

289.

3230

7.04

288.

1030

5.75

288.

8730

6.56

2012

314.

5632

5.90

309.

5232

0.68

312.

6432

3.92

2013

308.

9131

4.91

299.

3930

5.20

305.

2431

1.17

2014

300.

7030

1.66

292.

5629

3.49

297.

6129

8.55

2015

E20

7.33

207.

3321

1.76

211.

7620

8.98

208.

98

Fore

cast

2016

153.

9415

2.56

157.

2315

5.82

155.

1715

3.78

2017

178.

6017

2.19

182.

4217

5.87

180.

0217

3.56

2018

196.

5018

4.88

200.

7018

8.84

198.

0618

6.36

2019

216.

7419

9.27

221.

3820

3.53

218.

4720

0.86

2020

237.

6721

3.31

242.

7521

7.87

239.

5621

5.01

2021

259.

4122

7.08

264.

9623

1.93

261.

4822

8.89

2022

288.

2824

5.71

294.

4525

0.96

290.

5824

7.66

2023

326.

5427

0.98

333.

5227

6.77

329.

1427

3.14

2024

363.

7329

4.19

371.

5030

0.48

366.

6229

6.53

2025

390.

5430

8.43

398.

8931

5.02

393.

6531

0.88

2026

407.

5731

4.60

416.

2832

1.32

410.

8131

7.10

2027

419.

4731

6.49

428.

4432

3.25

422.

8131

9.01

2028

428.

4831

5.99

437.

6432

2.74

431.

8931

8.50

2029

434.

0631

2.91

443.

3431

9.60

437.

5131

5.40

2030

438.

1830

8.94

447.

5531

5.55

441.

6731

1.40

2031

442.

0730

4.66

451.

5231

1.17

445.

5930

7.08

2032

445.

7830

0.30

455.

3130

6.72

449.

3330

2.69

2033

452.

6629

8.10

462.

3330

4.47

456.

2630

0.47

2034

461.

5829

6.99

471.

4430

3.33

465.

2529

9.35

2035

472.

5229

7.07

482.

6230

3.42

476.

2829

9.44

2036

483.

0729

6.76

493.

3930

3.11

486.

9129

9.12

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

56.

8%4.

6%6.

6%4.

4%6.

8%4.

5%20

15-1

6-2

5.8%

-26.

4%-2

5.8%

-26.

4%-2

5.8%

-26.

4%20

15-2

56.

5%4.

1%6.

5%4.

1%6.

5%4.

1%20

15-3

64.

1%1.

7%4.

1%1.

7%4.

1%1.

7%S

ourc

e: F

orm

41,

U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n

75

TAB

LE 1

9

U.S.

CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S

AIR

CA

RG

O R

EVEN

UE T

ON

MIL

ES1,

2, 3

ALL

-CA

RG

O C

AR

RIE

R R

TMS

P

AS

SE

NG

ER

CA

RR

IER

RTM

STO

TAL

RTM

SFI

SC

AL

(Mill

ions

)(M

illio

ns)

(Mill

ions

)Y

EA

RD

OM

ES

TIC

INT'

L.TO

TAL

DO

ME

STI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LD

OM

ES

TIC

INT'

L.TO

TAL

His

toric

al20

019,

992

7,38

017

,372

3,94

67,

167

11,1

1213

,938

14,5

4728

,485

2008

12,2

6117

,516

29,7

772,

147

6,90

59,

052

14,4

0824

,421

38,8

2920

0910

,275

13,8

3424

,110

1,62

35,

266

6,88

911

,899

19,1

0030

,999

2010

11,2

4316

,733

27,9

761,

580

6,33

27,

912

12,8

2323

,065

35,8

8820

1110

,601

18,9

8029

,581

1,44

66,

250

7,69

612

,047

25,2

3037

,277

2012

10,8

8618

,310

29,1

961,

360

5,95

27,

313

12,2

4624

,262

36,5

0920

1310

,996

16,7

4127

,737

1,35

45,

700

7,05

312

,350

22,4

4134

,790

2014

11,2

2616

,356

27,5

811,

451

6,14

87,

598

12,6

7622

,503

35,1

8020

15E

11,6

7216

,403

28,0

751,

417

6,45

67,

873

13,0

8922

,858

35,9

47

Fore

cast

2016

11,9

0817

,454

29,3

621,

434

6,76

88,

202

13,3

4324

,222

37,5

6520

1712

,172

18,6

5130

,822

1,45

57,

125

8,57

913

,626

25,7

7539

,402

2018

12,2

9619

,807

32,1

031,

458

7,45

48,

912

13,7

5427

,261

41,0

1520

1912

,451

20,9

9433

,445

1,46

57,

781

9,24

613

,916

28,7

7542

,691

2020

12,6

5322

,234

34,8

881,

477

8,11

69,

593

14,1

3030

,351

44,4

81

2021

12,7

8923

,410

36,1

981,

480

8,41

59,

896

14,2

6931

,825

46,0

9420

2212

,840

24,6

3337

,474

1,47

48,

719

10,1

9314

,315

33,3

5247

,667

2023

12,8

8125

,956

38,8

371,

467

9,04

510

,512

14,3

4835

,000

49,3

4920

2412

,897

27,3

3140

,228

1,45

79,

376

10,8

3214

,354

36,7

0651

,060

2025

12,9

1728

,684

41,6

001,

447

9,68

511

,132

14,3

6438

,369

52,7

32

2026

12,9

4430

,107

43,0

501,

438

10,0

0511

,443

14,3

8240

,111

54,4

9320

2712

,962

31,5

9744

,559

1,42

810

,332

11,7

6014

,390

41,9

2956

,319

2028

12,9

8833

,139

46,1

271,

419

10,6

6212

,081

14,4

0743

,801

58,2

0820

2913

,003

34,7

1747

,721

1,40

910

,989

12,3

9714

,412

45,7

0660

,118

2030

13,0

2136

,319

49,3

401,

399

11,3

0812

,706

14,4

2047

,627

62,0

46

2031

13,0

2637

,974

51,0

001,

387

11,6

2813

,015

14,4

1349

,601

64,0

1420

3213

,032

39,6

7052

,702

1,37

611

,945

13,3

2114

,408

51,6

1566

,022

2033

13,0

4841

,445

54,4

931,

366

12,2

7013

,635

14,4

1353

,715

68,1

2920

3413

,062

43,2

9256

,354

1,35

512

,599

13,9

5414

,417

55,8

9170

,308

2035

13,0

7245

,206

58,2

791,

344

12,9

3114

,275

14,4

1758

,137

72,5

5420

3613

,081

47,1

7060

,251

1,33

313

,259

14,5

9314

,415

60,4

2974

,844

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

1%5.

9%3.

5%-7

.1%

-0.7

%-2

.4%

-0.4

%3.

3%1.

7%20

15-1

62.

0%6.

4%4.

6%1.

2%4.

8%4.

2%1.

9%6.

0%4.

5%20

15-2

51.

0%5.

7%4.

0%0.

2%4.

1%3.

5%0.

9%5.

3%3.

9%20

15-3

60.

5%5.

2%3.

7%-0

.3%

3.5%

3.0%

0.5%

4.7%

3.6%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion

1 Incl

udes

frei

ght/e

xpre

ss a

nd m

ail r

even

ue to

n m

iles

on m

ainl

ine

air c

arrie

rs a

nd re

gion

als/

com

mut

ers.

2 Dom

estic

figu

res

from

200

0 th

roug

h 20

02 e

xclu

de A

irbor

ne E

xpre

ss, I

nc.;

inte

rnat

iona

l fig

ures

for 2

003

and

beyo

nd in

clud

e ne

w

repo

rting

of c

ontra

ct s

ervic

e by

U.S

. car

riers

for f

orei

gn fl

ag c

arrie

rs.

3 Dom

estic

figu

res

from

200

3 an

d be

yond

incl

ude

Airb

orne

Exp

ress

. Inc

.

76

TAB

LE 2

0

U.S.

CO

MM

ERC

IAL

AIR

CA

RR

IER

S

INT

ERNA

TIO

NAL

AIR

CA

RG

O R

EVEN

UE T

ON

MIL

ES B

Y R

EGIO

N1, 2

OTH

ER

FIS

CA

LA

TLA

NTI

CLA

TIN

AM

ER

ICA

PA

CIF

ICIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LTO

TAL

YE

AR

(MIL

LIO

NS

)(M

ILLI

ON

S)

(MIL

LIO

NS

)(M

ILLI

ON

S)

(MIL

LIO

NS

)H

isto

rical

2001

5,28

21,

867

6,94

91,

320

15,4

18

2008

6,41

52,

336

9,05

06,

620

24,4

2120

095,

740

1,79

36,

855

4,71

119

,100

2010

6,86

51,

991

8,34

85,

860

23,0

6520

117,

236

1,83

29,

105

7,05

725

,230

2012

7,02

61,

870

8,56

96,

797

24,2

6220

136,

662

1,78

98,

184

5,80

622

,441

2014

6,88

71,

740

8,42

95,

447

22,5

0320

156,

746

1,62

39,

138

5,35

122

,858

Fore

cast

2016

E7,

012

1,57

210

,027

5,61

124

,222

2017

7,32

01,

577

10,9

895,

889

25,7

7520

187,

637

1,59

811

,856

6,17

027

,261

2019

7,95

31,

629

12,7

366,

457

28,7

7520

208,

292

1,66

313

,643

6,75

330

,351

2021

8,62

71,

687

14,4

617,

049

31,8

2520

228,

974

1,70

715

,320

7,35

033

,352

2023

9,33

71,

732

16,2

717,

660

35,0

0020

249,

711

1,76

017

,258

7,97

736

,706

2025

10,0

891,

782

18,2

028,

295

38,3

69

2026

10,4

771,

804

19,2

118,

619

40,1

1120

2710

,881

1,82

720

,272

8,94

941

,929

2028

11,2

991,

851

21,3

679,

283

43,8

0120

2911

,730

1,87

722

,480

9,61

945

,706

2030

12,1

731,

901

23,5

959,

958

47,6

27

2031

12,6

291,

924

24,7

4510

,303

49,6

0120

3213

,098

1,94

625

,919

10,6

5251

,615

2033

13,5

831,

969

27,1

5211

,011

53,7

1520

3414

,087

1,99

328

,435

11,3

7655

,891

2035

14,6

092,

019

29,7

6211

,747

58,1

3720

3615

,146

2,04

331

,113

12,1

2760

,429

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

8%-1

.0%

2.0%

10.5

%2.

9%20

15-1

63.

9%-3

.1%

9.7%

4.9%

6.0%

2015

-25

4.1%

0.9%

7.1%

4.5%

5.3%

2015

-36

3.9%

1.1%

6.0%

4.0%

4.7%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion

1 Incl

udes

frei

ght/e

xpre

ss a

nd m

ail r

even

ue to

n m

iles

on m

ainl

ine

air c

arrie

rs a

nd re

gion

als/

com

mut

ers.

2 Figu

res

for 2

003

and

beyo

nd in

clud

e ne

w re

porti

ng o

f con

tract

ser

vice

by U

.S. c

arrie

rs fo

r for

eign

flag

car

riers

.

77

TAB

LE 2

1

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

RS

PASS

ENG

ER J

ET A

IRC

RA

FT

CA

LEN

DA

RLA

RG

E N

AR

RO

WB

OD

YLA

RG

E W

IDE

BO

DY

LAR

GE

RE

GIO

NA

LTO

TAL

YE

AR

2 E

NG

INE

3 E

NG

INE

4 E

NG

INE

TOTA

L2

EN

GIN

E3

EN

GIN

E4

EN

GIN

ETO

TAL

JETS

JETS

JETS

His

toric

al20

013,

412

187

03,

599

451

8985

625

4,22

426

4,25

0

2008

3,17

010

13,

181

471

944

524

3,70

579

3,78

420

093,

108

91

3,11

844

79

4249

83,

616

783,

694

2010

3,12

08

13,

129

470

943

522

3,65

171

3,72

220

113,

127

71

3,13

547

17

4151

93,

654

763,

730

2012

3,12

37

03,

130

480

340

523

3,65

382

3,73

520

133,

159

50

3,16

448

20

4052

23,

686

933,

779

2014

3,22

42

03,

226

473

037

510

3,73

698

3,83

420

15E

3,32

22

03,

324

492

031

523

3,84

799

3,94

6

Fore

cast

2016

3,43

12

03,

433

509

022

531

3,96

410

14,

065

2017

3,47

32

03,

475

539

09

548

4,02

312

94,

152

2018

3,50

22

03,

504

560

00

560

4,06

413

94,

203

2019

3,53

82

03,

540

569

00

569

4,10

914

94,

258

2020

3,56

82

03,

570

572

00

572

4,14

216

14,

303

2021

3,60

32

03,

605

586

00

586

4,19

116

94,

360

2022

3,63

41

03,

635

605

00

605

4,24

017

14,

411

2023

3,67

50

03,

675

615

00

615

4,29

017

34,

463

2024

3,70

70

03,

707

627

00

627

4,33

417

54,

509

2025

3,80

90

03,

809

625

00

625

4,43

417

84,

612

2026

3,82

80

03,

828

636

00

636

4,46

418

14,

645

2027

3,85

10

03,

851

651

00

651

4,50

218

34,

685

2028

3,89

80

03,

898

663

00

663

4,56

118

54,

746

2029

3,94

90

03,

949

674

00

674

4,62

318

74,

810

2030

4,02

00

04,

020

693

00

693

4,71

318

74,

900

2031

4,07

60

04,

076

715

00

715

4,79

118

54,

976

2032

4,12

20

04,

122

740

00

740

4,86

218

55,

047

2033

4,16

20

04,

162

768

00

768

4,93

018

55,

115

2034

4,21

10

04,

211

793

00

793

5,00

418

55,

189

2035

4,26

10

04,

261

815

00

815

5,07

618

55,

261

2036

4,31

40

04,

314

840

00

840

5,15

418

55,

339

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-0

.2%

-27.

7%N

/A-0

.6%

0.6%

N/A

-7.0

%-1

.3%

-0.7

%10

.0%

-0.5

%20

15-1

63.

3%0.

0%N

/A3.

3%3.

5%N

/A-2

9.0%

1.5%

3.0%

2.0%

3.0%

2015

-25

1.4%

-100

.0%

N/A

1.4%

2.4%

N/A

N/A

1.8%

1.4%

6.0%

1.6%

2015

-36

1.3%

-99.

9%N

/A1.

2%2.

6%N

/AN

/A2.

3%1.

4%3.

0%1.

5%

78

TAB

LE 2

2

U.S.

MA

INLI

NE A

IR C

AR

RIE

RS

CA

RG

O J

ET A

IRC

RA

FT

CA

LEN

DA

RLA

RG

E N

AR

RO

WB

OD

YLA

RG

E W

IDE

BO

DY

YE

AR

2 E

NG

INE

3 E

NG

INE

4 E

NG

INE

TOTA

L2

EN

GIN

E3

EN

GIN

E4

EN

GIN

ETO

TAL

TOTA

LH

isto

rical

2001

180

343

143

666

190

192

8546

71,

133

2008

163

116

2930

827

420

782

563

871

2009

154

107

3029

125

319

682

531

822

2010

153

104

3128

826

520

097

562

850

2011

176

8926

291

281

203

9658

087

120

1218

767

1226

629

218

893

573

839

2013

192

152

209

296

175

6453

574

420

1421

614

023

029

417

069

533

763

2015

E22

519

024

430

915

672

537

781

Fore

cast

2016

227

190

246

312

149

7253

377

920

1723

219

025

132

813

973

540

791

2018

237

190

256

349

126

7354

880

420

1924

119

026

037

211

374

559

819

2020

247

170

264

395

100

7557

083

4

2021

250

160

266

411

9877

586

852

2022

255

110

266

427

9578

600

866

2023

244

100

254

441

9380

614

868

2024

256

90

265

455

9181

627

892

2025

258

00

258

469

8983

641

899

2026

262

00

262

485

8784

656

918

2027

271

00

271

500

8587

672

943

2028

273

00

273

517

8289

688

961

2029

275

00

275

532

8092

704

979

2030

277

00

277

549

7594

718

995

2031

279

00

279

569

7197

737

1,01

620

3228

00

028

058

966

9975

41,

034

2033

283

00

283

609

6210

277

31,

056

2034

284

00

284

629

5810

479

11,

075

2035

286

00

286

649

5410

781

01,

096

2036

287

00

287

668

5010

982

71,

114

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

6%-1

8.7%

N/A

-6.9

%3.

5%-1

.5%

-1.2

%1.

0%-2

.6%

2015

-16

0.9%

0.0%

N/A

0.8%

1.0%

-4.5

%0.

0%-0

.7%

-0.3

%20

15-2

51.

4%N

/AN

/A0.

6%4.

3%-5

.5%

1.4%

1.8%

1.4%

2015

-36

1.2%

N/A

N/A

0.8%

3.7%

-5.3

%2.

0%2.

1%1.

7%

79

TAB

LE 2

3

TOTA

L JE

T FU

EL A

ND A

VIA

TIO

N G

ASO

LINE

FUE

L C

ONS

UMPT

ION

U.S.

CIV

IL A

VIA

TIO

N A

IRC

RA

FT(M

illio

ns o

f Gal

lons

)

JET

FUE

LA

VIA

TIO

N G

AS

OLI

NE

TOTA

LFI

SC

AL

U.S

. AIR

CA

RR

IER

S1,

2G

EN

ER

AL

AIR

GE

NE

RA

LFU

EL

YE

AR

DO

ME

STI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LA

VIA

TIO

NTO

TAL

CA

RR

IER

AV

IATI

ON

T OTA

LC

ON

SU

ME

DH

isto

rical

2001

15,3

505,

893

21,2

4391

822

,162

227

933

521

,350

2008

13,3

976,

499

19,8

961,

706

21,6

022

248

250

21,8

5220

0911

,896

6,03

317

,929

1,44

719

,376

222

722

919

,606

2010

11,9

736,

290

18,2

631,

435

19,6

982

221

223

19,9

2120

1112

,092

6,54

718

,639

1,45

620

,095

221

621

820

,313

2012

12,1

246,

595

18,7

201,

435

20,1

552

206

208

20,3

6320

1312

,044

6,41

818

,461

1,26

019

,721

219

719

919

,920

2014

12,1

676,

348

18,5

141,

466

19,9

812

210

212

20,1

9220

15E

12,5

426,

471

19,0

131,

471

20,4

852

208

210

20,6

95

Fore

cast

2016

12,8

346,

459

19,2

931,

497

20,7

892

207

209

20,9

9820

1712

,973

6,66

419

,637

1,53

621

,173

220

620

821

,381

2018

13,1

366,

877

20,0

141,

576

21,5

902

206

208

21,7

9820

1913

,273

7,09

220

,365

1,61

721

,982

220

620

822

,190

2020

13,3

937,

308

20,7

011,

660

22,3

612

206

208

22,5

69

2021

13,4

897,

511

21,0

001,

702

22,7

022

206

208

22,9

1120

2213

,555

7,71

421

,269

1,73

423

,003

220

620

823

,211

2023

13,6

027,

919

21,5

211,

766

23,2

872

206

208

23,4

9520

2413

,672

8,12

421

,796

1,80

023

,597

220

620

823

,805

2025

13,7

708,

325

22,0

951,

836

23,9

312

207

209

24,1

39

2026

13,8

818,

525

22,4

071,

871

24,2

782

207

209

24,4

8620

2713

,995

8,72

822

,723

1,90

324

,626

220

620

824

,834

2028

14,1

368,

933

23,0

681,

939

25,0

072

207

209

25,2

1620

2914

,282

9,13

723

,419

1,97

825

,397

220

720

925

,606

2030

14,4

229,

340

23,7

622,

017

25,7

792

207

209

25,9

88

2031

14,5

639,

545

24,1

082,

056

26,1

642

207

209

26,3

7320

3214

,708

9,74

924

,457

2,09

626

,553

220

821

026

,762

2033

14,8

529,

956

24,8

082,

137

26,9

452

208

210

27,1

5520

3414

,989

10,1

6525

,154

2,17

727

,331

220

821

027

,542

2035

15,1

2510

,375

25,5

002,

224

27,7

242

209

211

27,9

3520

3615

,260

10,5

8625

,845

2,26

728

,112

220

921

128

,323

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-1

.4%

0.7%

-0.8

%3.

4%-0

.6%

0.0%

-2.1

%-3

.3%

-0.2

%20

15-1

62.

3%-0

.2%

1.5%

1.7%

1.5%

0.0%

-0.7

%-0

.7%

1.5%

2015

-25

0.9%

2.6%

1.5%

2.2%

1.6%

0.0%

-0.1

%-0

.1%

1.6%

2015

-36

0.9%

2.4%

1.5%

2.1%

1.5%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

1.5%

Sou

rce:

Air

carri

er je

t fue

l, Fo

rm 4

1, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion;

all

othe

rs, F

AA

AP

O e

stim

ates

.1 In

clud

es b

oth

pass

enge

r (m

ainl

ine

and

regi

onal

air

carri

er) a

nd c

argo

car

riers

.2 Fo

reca

st a

ssum

es 1

.0%

ann

ual i

mpr

ovem

ent i

n av

aila

ble

seat

mile

s pe

r gal

lon

for U

.S. C

omm

erci

al A

ir C

arrie

r

80

TAB

LE 2

4

U.S.

REG

IONA

L C

AR

RIE

R F

OR

ECA

ST A

SSUM

PTIO

NS

RE

VE

NU

E P

ER

AV

ER

AG

E S

EA

TS P

ER

AIR

CR

AFT

MIL

EA

VE

RA

GE

PA

SS

EN

GE

R T

RIP

LE

NG

THP

AS

SE

NG

ER

MIL

E**

FIS

CA

LD

OM

ES

TIC

INT'

L.TO

TAL

DO

ME

STI

CIN

T'L.

TOTA

LC

UR

RE

NT

$20

15 $

Y

EA

R(S

eats

/Mile

)(S

eats

/Mile

)(S

eats

/Mile

)(M

iles)

(Mile

s)(M

iles)

(Cen

ts)

(Cen

ts)

His

toric

al20

0140

4341

302

303

302

31.6

542

.52

2008

5353

5346

153

346

221

.04

23.2

320

0955

5355

457

512

458

17.0

418

.88

2010

5653

5646

450

346

515

.74

17.1

420

1156

5356

467

531

468

15.1

016

.03

2012

5655

5646

760

647

013

.16

13.6

420

1356

5556

469

641

472

11.6

611

.88

2014

5757

5747

366

947

711

.39

11.4

220

15E

6057

6047

569

147

912

.17

12.1

7

Fore

cast

2016

6158

6147

468

847

711

.89

11.7

820

1762

5862

476

691

479

12.5

512

.10

2018

6358

6347

869

448

112

.87

12.1

120

1964

5863

480

697

483

13.2

012

.14

2020

6459

6448

270

048

513

.54

12.1

5

2021

6559

6548

470

348

713

.90

12.1

620

2265

5965

486

706

489

14.3

212

.20

2023

6660

6648

870

949

114

.79

12.2

720

2466

6066

490

711

493

15.2

112

.30

2025

6760

6749

171

449

515

.55

12.2

8

2026

6761

6749

371

749

715

.83

12.2

220

2768

6168

495

720

499

16.1

012

.15

2028

6861

6849

772

350

116

.36

12.0

720

2969

6169

499

726

503

16.6

111

.98

2030

6962

6950

172

950

516

.85

11.8

8

2031

7062

7050

373

250

717

.11

11.7

920

3270

6270

505

735

509

17.3

611

.69

2033

7163

7150

773

851

117

.64

11.6

220

3471

6371

509

740

513

17.9

311

.54

2035

7263

7251

174

351

518

.24

11.4

720

3672

6472

513

746

517

18.5

411

.39

A

vg A

nnua

l Gro

wth

2001

-15

2.8%

2.1%

2.8%

3.3%

6.1%

3.3%

-6.6

%-8

.5%

2015

-16

1.5%

0.5%

1.5%

-0.4

%-0

.4%

-0.4

%-2

.3%

-3.2

%20

15-2

51.

1%0.

5%1.

1%0.

3%0.

3%0.

3%2.

5%0.

1%20

15-3

60.

9%0.

5%0.

9%0.

4%0.

4%0.

4%2.

0%-0

.3%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1 an

d 29

8C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

**

Rep

ortin

g ca

rrier

s.

81

TAB

LE 2

5

U.S.

REG

IONA

L C

AR

RIE

RS

SCHE

DUL

ED P

ASS

ENG

ER T

RA

FFIC

(In M

illio

ns)

FIS

CA

L R

EV

EN

UE

PA

SS

EN

GE

RS

RE

VE

NU

E P

AS

SE

NG

ER

MIL

ES

YE

AR

DO

ME

STI

CIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LTO

TAL

DO

ME

STI

CIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LTO

TAL

His

toric

al20

0180

384

24,2

9994

725

,246

2008

159

416

373

,305

1,86

775

,172

2009

154

315

770

,374

1,30

471

,678

2010

162

316

475

,030

1,34

776

,377

2011

162

216

475

,513

1,27

076

,783

2012

159

316

274

,330

1,85

676

,187

2013

155

315

872

,956

1,85

174

,807

2014

154

315

772

,953

1,92

674

,878

2015

E15

32

155

72,7

531,

548

74,3

01

Fore

cast

2016

154

215

672

,999

1,55

374

,552

2017

158

216

074

,910

1,59

476

,503

2018

161

216

477

,018

1,63

878

,656

2019

165

216

778

,974

1,68

080

,654

2020

168

217

080

,734

1,71

782

,452

2021

170

217

382

,363

1,75

284

,115

2022

173

317

583

,835

1,78

385

,619

2023

175

317

785

,154

1,81

286

,965

2024

177

318

086

,635

1,84

388

,478

2025

180

318

288

,349

1,87

990

,228

2026

183

318

590

,208

1,91

992

,127

2027

186

318

992

,118

1,96

094

,078

2028

190

319

294

,313

2,00

696

,320

2029

193

319

696

,630

2,05

698

,686

2030

197

320

098

,942

2,10

510

1,04

7

2031

201

320

410

1,36

52,

156

103,

521

2032

206

320

910

3,88

82,

210

106,

098

2033

210

321

310

6,47

82,

265

108,

743

2034

214

321

710

9,04

62,

320

111,

365

2035

218

322

111

1,64

12,

375

114,

016

2036

223

322

611

4,28

82,

431

116,

719

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

54.

7%-2

.4%

4.5%

8.1%

3.6%

8.0%

2015

-16

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

2015

-25

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

2.0%

2.0%

2.0%

2015

-36

1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

2.2%

2.2%

2.2%

Sou

rce:

For

m 4

1 an

d 29

8C, U

.S. D

epar

tmen

t of T

rans

porta

tion.

82

TAB

LE 2

6

U.S.

REG

IONA

L C

AR

RIE

RS

SCHE

DUL

ED P

ASS

ENG

ER C

APA

CIT

Y, T

RA

FFIC

, AND

LO

AD

FA

CTO

RS

DO

ME

STI

CIN

TER

NA

TIO

NA

LTO

TAL

FIS

CA

LA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

AS

Ms

RP

Ms

% L

OA

DA

SM

sR

PM

s%

LO

AD

YE

AR

(MIL

)(M

IL)

FAC

TOR

(MIL

)(M

IL)

FAC

TOR

(MIL

)(M

IL)

FAC

TOR

His

toric

al20

0141

,418

24,2

9958

.71,

633

947

58.0

43,0

5125

,246

58.6

2008

99,4

6973

,305

73.7

2,63

21,

867

70.9

102,

101

75,1

7273

.620

0994

,664

70,3

7474

.31,

859

1,30

470

.296

,523

71,6

7874

.320

1098

,461

75,0

3076

.21,

857

1,34

772

.510

0,31

876

,377

76.1

2011

99,0

7575

,513

76.2

1,81

81,

270

69.9

100,

893

76,7

8376

.120

1295

,748

74,3

3077

.62,

595

1,85

671

.598

,343

76,1

8777

.520

1393

,084

72,9

5678

.42,

448

1,85

175

.695

,532

74,8

0778

.320

1491

,169

72,9

5380

.02,

560

1,92

675

.293

,729

74,8

7879

.920

15E

90,6

7972

,753

80.2

2,10

31,

548

73.6

92,7

8274

,301

80.1

Fore

cast

2016

90,6

6172

,999

80.5

2,10

31,

553

73.8

92,7

6474

,552

80.4

2017

92,9

8874

,910

80.6

2,15

71,

594

73.9

95,1

4576

,503

80.4

2018

95,5

6077

,018

80.6

2,21

71,

638

73.9

97,7

7778

,656

80.4

2019

97,9

4578

,974

80.6

2,27

21,

680

74.0

100,

216

80,6

5480

.520

2010

0,08

680

,734

80.7

2,32

11,

717

74.0

102,

407

82,4

5280

.5

2021

102,

065

82,3

6380

.72,

367

1,75

274

.010

4,43

284

,115

80.5

2022

103,

851

83,8

3580

.72,

409

1,78

374

.010

6,26

085

,619

80.6

2023

105,

448

85,1

5480

.82,

446

1,81

274

.110

7,89

486

,965

80.6

2024

107,

247

86,6

3580

.82,

488

1,84

374

.110

9,73

588

,478

80.6

2025

109,

334

88,3

4980

.82,

536

1,87

974

.111

1,87

090

,228

80.7

2026

111,

601

90,2

0880

.82,

589

1,91

974

.111

4,18

992

,127

80.7

2027

113,

932

92,1

1880

.92,

643

1,96

074

.211

6,57

594

,078

80.7

2028

116,

616

94,3

1380

.92,

705

2,00

674

.211

9,32

196

,320

80.7

2029

119,

450

96,6

3080

.92,

771

2,05

674

.212

2,22

198

,686

80.7

2030

122,

277

98,9

4280

.92,

836

2,10

574

.212

5,11

410

1,04

780

.8

2031

125,

242

101,

365

80.9

2,90

52,

156

74.2

128,

147

103,

521

80.8

2032

128,

331

103,

888

81.0

2,97

72,

210

74.2

131,

308

106,

098

80.8

2033

131,

502

106,

478

81.0

3,05

02,

265

74.3

134,

552

108,

743

80.8

2034

134,

646

109,

046

81.0

3,12

32,

320

74.3

137,

769

111,

365

80.8

2035

137,

824

111,

641

81.0

3,19

72,

375

74.3

141,

020

114,

016

80.9

2036

141,

064

114,

288

81.0

3,27

22,

431

74.3

144,

336

116,

719

80.9

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

55.

8%8.

1%1.

8%3.

6%1.

7%5.

6%8.

0%20

15-1

60.

0%0.

3%0.

0%0.

3%0.

4%0.

0%0.

3%20

15-2

51.

9%2.

0%1.

9%2.

0%0.

1%1.

9%2.

0%20

15-3

62.

1%2.

2%2.

1%2.

2%0.

0%2.

1%2.

2%S

ourc

e: F

orm

41

and

298C

, U.S

. Dep

artm

ent o

f Tra

nspo

rtatio

n.

83

TA

BLE

27

U.S.

REG

IONA

L C

AR

RIE

RS

PASS

ENG

ER A

IRC

RA

FT

RE

GIO

NA

L A

IRC

RA

FTA

S O

FLE

SS

TH

AN

10 T

O 1

920

TO

30

31 T

O 4

0 S

EA

TSO

VE

R 4

0 S

EA

TSTO

TAL

FLE

ET

JAN

UA

RY

19

SE

ATS

SE

ATS

SE

ATS

PR

OP

JET

TOTA

LP

RO

PJE

T*TO

TAL

NO

N J

ET

JET

TOTA

LH

isto

rical

2001

490

250

248

445

110

555

148

672

820

1,58

178

22,

363

2008

451

107

6818

025

205

121

1,73

01,

851

927

1,75

52,

682

2009

466

103

6515

329

182

115

1,72

21,

837

902

1,75

12,

653

2010

440

9282

144

2817

299

1,72

81,

827

857

1,75

62,

613

2011

447

9467

113

2714

013

51,

683

1,81

885

71,

710

2,56

720

1239

490

5511

523

138

104

1,55

91,

663

758

1,58

22,

340

2013

337

9452

370

3751

1,64

21,

693

571

1,64

22,

213

2014

321

9056

320

3256

1,60

21,

658

555

1,60

22,

157

2015

E34

668

1332

032

571,

628

1,68

551

61,

628

2,14

4

Fore

cast

2016

337

6613

310

3159

1,52

71,

586

506

1,52

72,

033

2017

322

6312

300

3061

1,52

21,

583

488

1,52

22,

010

2018

198

6112

290

2963

1,47

41,

537

363

1,47

41,

837

2019

187

5811

270

2765

1,45

31,

518

348

1,45

31,

801

2020

181

5611

260

2667

1,42

01,

487

341

1,42

01,

761

2021

171

5310

250

2569

1,38

41,

453

328

1,38

41,

712

2022

165

5110

240

2471

1,37

51,

446

321

1,37

51,

696

2023

157

499

230

2372

1,39

91,

471

310

1,39

91,

709

2024

150

469

220

2274

1,41

41,

488

301

1,41

41,

715

2025

142

448

210

2176

1,43

01,

506

291

1,43

01,

721

2026

132

418

190

1978

1,46

01,

538

278

1,46

01,

738

2027

124

397

180

1880

1,48

81,

568

268

1,48

81,

756

2028

117

367

170

1781

1,52

41,

605

258

1,52

41,

782

2029

111

347

160

1683

1,55

01,

633

251

1,55

01,

801

2030

103

326

150

1585

1,58

01,

665

241

1,58

01,

821

2031

9529

614

014

861,

612

1,69

823

01,

612

1,84

220

3287

275

130

1388

1,65

01,

738

220

1,65

01,

870

2033

7824

511

011

891,

686

1,77

520

71,

686

1,89

320

3470

224

100

1091

1,71

81,

809

197

1,71

81,

915

2035

6219

49

09

921,

751

1,84

318

61,

751

1,93

720

3654

173

80

893

1,78

61,

879

175

1,78

61,

961

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-2

.5%

-8.9

%-1

9.0%

-17.

1%N

/A-1

8.4%

-6.6

%6.

5%5.

3%-7

.7%

5.4%

-0.7

%20

15-1

6-2

.6%

-2.9

%0.

0%-3

.1%

N/A

-3.1

%3.

5%-6

.2%

-5.9

%-1

.9%

-6.2

%-5

.2%

2015

-25

-8.5

%-4

.3%

-4.7

%-4

.1%

N/A

-4.1

%2.

9%-1

.3%

-1.1

%-5

.6%

-1.3

%-2

.2%

2015

-36

-8.5

%-6

.4%

-6.7

%-6

.4%

N/A

-6.4

%2.

4%0.

4%0.

5%-5

.0%

0.4%

-0.4

%S

ourc

e: T

he V

eloc

ity G

roup

for t

he R

egio

nal A

irlin

e A

ssoc

iatio

n th

roug

h 20

04.

*Inde

pend

ence

Air

A31

9 ai

rcra

ft ar

e in

clud

ed in

Tab

le 2

0 - U

.S. M

ainl

ine

Air

Car

riers

Pas

seng

er J

et A

ircra

ft.

84

TAB

LE 2

8

AC

TIVE

GEN

ERA

L A

VIA

TIO

N A

ND A

IR T

AXI

AIR

CR

AFT

FIXE

D W

ING

TOTA

LP

ISTO

NG

EN

ER

AL

AS

OF

SIN

GLE

MU

LTI-

TUR

BO

TUR

BO

RO

TOR

CR

AFT

EXP

ER

I-S

PO

RT

AV

IATI

ON

TOTA

LTO

TAL

DE

C. 3

1E

NG

INE

EN

GIN

ETO

TAL

PR

OP

JET

TOTA

LP

ISTO

NTU

RB

INE

TOTA

LM

EN

TAL*

*A

IRC

RA

FT**

OTH

ER

FLE

ET

PIS

TON

STU

RB

INE

SH

isto

rical

*20

0114

5,03

418

,192

163,

226

6,59

67,

787

14,3

832,

292

4,49

16,

783

20,4

21N

/A6,

633

211,

446

165,

518

18,8

74

2008

145,

497

17,5

1516

3,01

28,

907

11,0

4219

,949

3,49

86,

378

9,87

623

,364

6,81

15,

652

228,

664

166,

510

26,3

2720

0914

0,64

916

,474

157,

123

9,05

511

,268

20,3

233,

499

6,48

59,

984

24,4

196,

547

5,48

022

3,87

616

0,62

226

,808

2010

139,

519

15,9

0015

5,41

99,

369

11,4

8420

,853

3,58

86,

514

10,1

0224

,784

6,52

85,

684

223,

370

159,

007

27,3

6720

11E

136,

895

15,7

0215

2,59

79,

523

11,6

5021

,173

3,41

16,

671

10,0

8224

,275

6,64

55,

681

220,

453

156,

008

27,8

4420

1212

8,84

714

,313

143,

160

10,3

0411

,793

22,0

973,

292

6,76

310

,055

26,7

152,

001

5,00

620

9,03

414

6,45

228

,860

2013

124,

398

13,2

5713

7,65

59,

619

11,6

3721

,256

3,13

76,

628

9,76

524

,918

2,05

64,

277

199,

927

140,

792

27,8

8420

1412

6,03

613

,146

139,

182

9,77

712

,362

22,1

393,

154

6,81

29,

966

26,1

912,

231

4,69

920

4,40

814

2,33

628

,951

2015

E12

5,05

013

,085

138,

135

9,57

012

,475

22,0

453,

245

6,99

510

,240

26,4

352,

410

4,61

520

3,88

014

1,38

029

,040

Fore

cast

2016

124,

055

13,0

2513

7,08

09,

420

12,6

3522

,055

3,34

07,

200

10,5

4026

,590

2,59

04,

570

203,

425

140,

420

29,2

5520

1712

3,14

012

,955

136,

095

9,31

012

,870

22,1

803,

435

7,41

010

,845

26,8

502,

770

4,56

020

3,30

013

9,53

029

,590

2018

122,

245

12,9

0513

5,15

09,

235

13,1

2522

,360

3,52

57,

615

11,1

4027

,055

2,94

54,

550

203,

200

138,

675

29,9

7520

1912

1,36

512

,855

134,

220

9,19

513

,395

22,5

903,

610

7,82

011

,430

27,2

703,

130

4,54

520

3,18

513

7,83

030

,410

2020

120,

485

12,8

1013

3,29

59,

190

13,6

8022

,870

3,69

08,

020

11,7

1027

,485

3,31

04,

525

203,

195

136,

985

30,8

90

2021

119,

585

12,7

6013

2,34

59,

215

13,9

7523

,190

3,77

08,

215

11,9

8527

,690

3,49

04,

525

203,

225

136,

115

31,4

0520

2211

8,69

012

,715

131,

405

9,27

014

,285

23,5

553,

850

8,41

012

,260

27,9

253,

675

4,52

020

3,34

013

5,25

531

,965

2023

117,

785

12,6

5513

0,44

09,

350

14,6

1023

,960

3,93

08,

605

12,5

3528

,060

3,86

04,

510

203,

365

134,

370

32,5

6520

2411

6,87

512

,595

129,

470

9,46

514

,965

24,4

304,

010

8,79

512

,805

28,3

104,

040

4,50

020

3,55

513

3,48

033

,225

2025

115,

960

12,5

4512

8,50

59,

600

15,3

4024

,940

4,09

08,

990

13,0

8028

,500

4,23

04,

490

203,

745

132,

595

33,9

30

2026

115,

045

12,4

8012

7,52

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775

15,7

3525

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4,17

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13,3

5528

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4,41

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495

204,

030

131,

695

34,6

9520

2711

4,13

012

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126,

550

9,98

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,150

26,1

354,

250

9,38

013

,630

29,0

104,

585

4,48

520

4,39

513

0,80

035

,515

2028

113,

225

12,3

4012

5,56

510

,205

16,5

8026

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4,33

09,

575

13,9

0529

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4,76

04,

480

204,

835

129,

895

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6020

2911

2,34

512

,260

124,

605

10,4

4017

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27,4

804,

410

9,77

014

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29,5

254,

935

4,46

520

5,19

012

9,01

537

,250

2030

111,

495

12,1

7512

3,67

010

,705

17,5

2028

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4,49

09,

960

14,4

5029

,850

5,11

04,

470

205,

775

128,

160

38,1

85

2031

110,

685

12,0

9512

2,78

010

,990

18,0

1529

,005

4,57

010

,160

14,7

3030

,155

5,27

54,

465

206,

410

127,

350

39,1

6520

3210

9,90

512

,015

121,

920

11,2

9518

,520

29,8

154,

655

10,3

6515

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30,4

555,

445

4,46

520

7,12

012

6,57

540

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109,

155

11,9

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1,08

511

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19,0

4530

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4,74

010

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460

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120,

295

11,9

3519

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10,7

9515

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905,

775

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8,76

012

5,12

042

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2035

107,

780

11,7

6511

9,54

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7532

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4,91

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5,94

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685

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011

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118,

855

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055,

005

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Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-1

.1%

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%-1

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2.7%

3.4%

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3.0%

1.9%

N/A

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%-0

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%3.

1%20

15-1

6-0

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%-0

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%1.

3%0.

0%2.

9%2.

9%2.

9%0.

6%7.

5%-1

.0%

-0.2

%-0

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0.7%

2015

-25

-0.8

%-0

.4%

-0.7

%0.

0%2.

1%1.

2%2.

3%2.

5%2.

5%0.

8%5.

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0.0%

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6%20

15-3

6-0

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1.3%

2.5%

2.0%

2.1%

2.3%

2.2%

0.9%

4.5%

-0.2

%0.

2%-0

.6%

2.1%

* S

ourc

e: 2

001-

2010

, 201

2-20

14, F

AA

Gen

eral

Avia

tion

and

Air

Taxi

Act

ivity

(and

Avio

nics

) Sur

veys

.**

Exp

erim

enta

l Lig

ht-s

port

cate

gory

that

was

pre

vious

ly s

how

n un

der S

port

Airc

raft

is m

oved

und

er E

xper

imen

tal A

ircra

ft ca

tego

ry, s

tarti

ng in

201

2.

Not

e: A

n ac

tive

airc

raft

is o

ne th

at h

as a

cur

rent

regi

stra

tion

and

was

flow

n at

leas

t one

hou

r dur

ing

the

cale

ndar

yea

r.

TUR

BIN

E

85

TAB

LE 2

9

AC

TIVE

GEN

ERA

L A

VIA

TIO

N A

ND A

IR T

AXI

HO

URS

FLO

WN

(In T

hous

ands

)

FIXE

D W

ING

TOTA

LP

ISTO

NTU

RB

INE

GE

NE

RA

LC

ALE

ND

AR

SIN

GLE

MU

LTI-

TUR

BO

TUR

BO

RO

TOR

CR

AFT

EXP

ER

I-S

PO

RT

AV

IATI

ON

TO

TAL

TOTA

L Y

EA

RE

NG

INE

EN

GIN

ETO

TAL

PR

OP

JET

TOTA

LP

ISTO

NTU

RB

INE

TOTA

LM

EN

TAL*

*A

IRC

RA

FT**

OTH

ER

HO

UR

SP

ISTO

NS

TUR

BIN

ES

His

toric

al*

2001

16,5

492,

644

19,1

931,

773

2,65

44,

427

474

1,47

81,

952

1,15

7N

/A28

727

,016

19,6

675,

905

2008

12,7

462,

328

15,0

742,

457

3,60

06,

057

751

2,47

03,

222

1,15

529

320

926

,009

15,8

258,

527

2009

11,7

301,

903

13,6

342,

215

3,16

15,

376

755

2,24

83,

003

1,28

628

617

823

,763

14,3

897,

624

2010

12,1

611,

818

13,9

792,

325

3,37

55,

700

794

2,61

13,

405

1,22

631

118

124

,802

14,7

738,

311

2011

E11

,844

1,78

213

,626

2,46

33,

407

5,87

075

72,

654

3,41

11,

203

278

181

24,5

7014

,383

8,52

420

1211

,442

1,76

613

,207

2,73

33,

418

6,15

173

12,

723

3,45

41,

243

169

180

24,4

0413

,938

8,87

420

1310

,706

1,64

612

,352

2,58

73,

488

6,07

663

62,

312

2,94

91,

191

173

135

22,8

7612

,989

8,38

820

1410

,395

1,57

311

,967

2,61

33,

881

6,49

481

82,

424

3,24

21,

244

165

158

23,2

7112

,786

8,91

820

15E

10,3

121,

555

11,8

672,

582

3,91

36,

495

748

2,49

33,

240

1,26

018

015

423

,196

12,6

158,

988

Fore

cast

2016

10,2

251,

541

11,7

672,

564

4,01

66,

580

739

2,58

53,

323

1,28

319

415

223

,300

12,5

059,

165

2017

10,1

511,

530

11,6

812,

556

4,16

46,

720

737

2,68

03,

417

1,31

120

815

223

,490

12,4

179,

401

2018

10,0

841,

519

11,6

032,

554

4,31

56,

869

756

2,77

53,

531

1,33

722

315

223

,714

12,3

599,

644

2019

10,0

231,

510

11,5

322,

561

4,46

47,

025

774

2,87

13,

645

1,36

423

815

223

,956

12,3

079,

896

2020

9,94

61,

505

11,4

512,

570

4,61

97,

189

799

2,96

73,

766

1,39

125

315

224

,201

12,2

5010

,155

2021

9,87

91,

497

11,3

772,

589

4,77

17,

361

824

3,06

13,

885

1,41

826

815

224

,461

12,2

0110

,422

2022

9,80

01,

495

11,2

952,

611

4,92

17,

531

849

3,15

03,

999

1,44

828

415

124

,708

12,1

4410

,681

2023

9,72

41,

492

11,2

172,

639

5,06

87,

707

873

3,23

94,

112

1,47

329

915

124

,960

12,0

9010

,946

2024

9,65

01,

490

11,1

412,

671

5,22

77,

899

896

3,31

74,

213

1,50

531

515

125

,223

12,0

3611

,216

2025

9,59

61,

489

11,0

862,

710

5,38

98,

099

918

3,39

64,

313

1,53

333

115

125

,513

12,0

0311

,494

2026

9,53

61,

489

11,0

252,

764

5,54

88,

311

940

3,47

54,

415

1,56

434

715

125

,813

11,9

6511

,786

2027

9,48

31,

491

10,9

742,

824

5,70

78,

531

962

3,55

34,

515

1,59

836

315

126

,133

11,9

3712

,084

2028

9,42

41,

492

10,9

162,

885

5,87

78,

762

984

3,63

04,

614

1,63

237

915

126

,454

11,9

0012

,392

2029

9,36

81,

494

10,8

632,

954

6,05

69,

010

1,00

43,

707

4,71

21,

659

394

151

26,7

8811

,867

12,7

1720

309,

321

1,49

610

,817

3,03

26,

236

9,26

81,

024

3,78

34,

807

1,69

141

015

127

,143

11,8

4113

,050

2031

9,28

51,

496

10,7

803,

113

6,42

59,

538

1,04

43,

861

4,90

51,

722

426

151

27,5

2111

,824

13,3

9920

329,

240

1,49

810

,738

3,19

86,

610

9,80

81,

064

3,94

15,

005

1,75

344

215

127

,896

11,8

0213

,749

2033

9,19

71,

500

10,6

973,

288

6,80

010

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1,08

54,

024

5,10

91,

784

457

151

28,2

8511

,781

14,1

1220

349,

158

1,50

210

,660

3,37

96,

994

10,3

731,

105

4,10

75,

212

1,81

847

315

028

,687

11,7

6614

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2035

9,14

61,

503

10,6

493,

478

7,21

610

,694

1,12

74,

193

5,32

11,

849

489

150

29,1

5211

,776

14,8

8720

369,

119

1,50

510

,623

3,57

57,

422

10,9

971,

149

4,28

15,

430

1,87

650

515

029

,582

11,7

7215

,278

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-3

.3%

-3.7

%-3

.4%

2.7%

2.8%

2.8%

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3.8%

3.7%

0.6%

N/A

-4.4

%-1

.1%

-3.1

%3.

0%20

15-1

6-0

.8%

-0.9

%-0

.8%

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%2.

6%1.

3%-1

.2%

3.7%

2.6%

1.8%

8.0%

-1.0

%0.

4%-0

.9%

2.0%

2015

-25

-0.7

%-0

.4%

-0.7

%0.

5%3.

3%2.

2%2.

1%3.

1%2.

9%2.

0%6.

3%-0

.2%

1.0%

-0.5

%2.

5%20

15-3

6-0

.6%

-0.2

%-0

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1.6%

3.1%

2.5%

2.1%

2.6%

2.5%

1.9%

5.0%

-0.1

%1.

2%-0

.3%

2.6%

* S

ourc

e: 2

001-

2010

, 201

2-20

14, F

AA

Gen

eral

Avia

tion

and

Air

Taxi

Act

ivity

(and

Avio

nics

) Sur

veys

.**

Exp

erim

enta

l Lig

ht-s

port

cate

gory

that

was

pre

vious

ly s

how

n un

der S

port

Airc

raft

is m

oved

und

er E

xper

imen

tal A

ircra

ft ca

tego

ry, s

tarti

ng in

201

2.

Not

e: A

n ac

tive

airc

raft

is o

ne th

at h

as a

cur

rent

regi

stra

tion

and

was

flow

n at

leas

t one

hou

r dur

ing

the

cale

ndar

yea

r.

86

TAB

LE 3

0

AC

TIVE

PIL

OTS

BY

TYP

E O

F C

ERTI

FIC

ATE

RO

TOR

-TO

TAL

INS

TRU

ME

NT

AS

OF

RE

CR

EA

-S

PO

RT

AIR

LIN

EC

RA

FTG

LID

ER

TOTA

LLE

SS

RA

TED

D

EC

. 31

STU

DE

NTS

TIO

NA

LP

ILO

TP

RIV

ATE

CO

MM

ER

CIA

LTR

AN

SP

OR

TO

NLY

ON

LYP

ILO

TSA

T P

ILO

TSP

ILO

TS1

His

toric

al*

2001

94,4

2031

6N

/A24

3,82

312

0,50

214

4,70

27,

727

8,47

361

9,96

347

5,26

131

5,27

6

2008

80,9

8925

22,

623

222,

596

124,

746

146,

838

14,6

4721

,055

613,

746

466,

908

325,

247

2009

72,2

8023

43,

248

211,

619

125,

738

144,

600

15,2

9821

,268

594,

285

449,

685

323,

495

2010

1

19,1

19 2

212

3,68

220

2,02

012

3,70

514

2,19

815

,377

21,2

7562

7,58

848

5,39

031

8,00

120

1111

8,65

722

74,

066

194,

441

120,

865

142,

511

15,2

2021

,141

617,

128

474,

617

314,

122

2012

119,

946

218

4,49

318

8,00

111

6,40

014

5,59

015

,126

20,8

0261

0,57

646

4,98

631

1,95

220

1312

0,28

523

84,

824

180,

214

108,

206

149,

824

15,1

1420

,381

599,

086

449,

262

307,

120

2014

120,

546

220

5,15

717

4,88

310

4,32

215

2,93

315

,511

19,9

2759

3,49

944

0,56

630

6,06

620

1512

2,72

919

05,

482

170,

718

101,

164

154,

730

15,5

6619

,460

590,

039

435,

309

304,

329

Fore

cast

2016

123,

900

190

5,90

017

0,45

098

,700

155,

000

15,5

7519

,270

588,

985

433,

985

304,

400

2017

124,

650

190

6,35

016

8,25

096

,750

155,

400

15,6

4519

,240

586,

475

431,

075

303,

900

2018

125,

200

190

6,85

016

5,95

095

,200

155,

400

15,8

0019

,190

583,

780

428,

380

303,

450

2019

125,

700

190

7,20

016

4,05

094

,000

155,

700

16,0

3519

,095

581,

970

426,

270

303,

250

2020

126,

150

190

7,60

016

4,35

093

,000

156,

200

16,3

3019

,075

582,

895

426,

695

303,

950

2021

126,

600

185

8,00

016

3,60

092

,200

156,

600

16,6

8519

,025

582,

895

426,

295

304,

300

2022

127,

000

185

8,40

016

1,65

091

,550

156,

900

17,0

8018

,965

581,

730

424,

830

304,

150

2023

127,

400

185

8,85

015

9,30

091

,050

157,

300

17,5

1019

,010

580,

605

423,

305

303,

950

2024

127,

750

185

9,30

015

7,35

090

,650

157,

800

17,9

6518

,980

579,

980

422,

180

303,

900

2025

128,

150

185

9,75

015

6,00

090

,350

158,

600

18,4

4018

,915

580,

390

421,

790

304,

100

2026

128,

500

180

10,2

0015

5,10

090

,050

159,

300

18,9

3518

,860

581,

125

421,

825

304,

550

2027

128,

900

180

10,6

5015

4,35

089

,850

160,

000

19,4

4018

,795

582,

165

422,

165

305,

000

2028

129,

300

180

11,1

0015

3,75

089

,700

160,

900

19,9

6018

,810

583,

700

422,

800

305,

650

2029

129,

650

180

11,5

5015

3,30

089

,550

161,

800

20,4

8518

,790

585,

305

423,

505

306,

300

2030

130,

000

180

12,0

0015

2,85

089

,400

162,

800

21,0

1518

,835

587,

080

424,

280

307,

000

2031

130,

350

180

12,4

5015

2,50

089

,300

163,

800

21,5

5518

,835

588,

970

425,

170

307,

700

2032

130,

650

180

12,9

0015

2,15

089

,200

164,

800

22,1

0518

,860

590,

845

426,

045

308,

500

2033

131,

000

180

13,3

0015

1,60

089

,150

165,

700

22,6

6518

,875

592,

470

426,

770

309,

150

2034

131,

250

180

13,7

0015

1,15

089

,100

166,

600

23,2

3518

,830

594,

045

427,

445

309,

850

2035

131,

550

180

14,1

5015

0,60

089

,000

167,

600

23,8

2018

,835

595,

735

428,

135

310,

550

2036

131,

800

180

14,6

0015

0,20

088

,950

168,

600

24,4

2018

,825

597,

575

428,

975

311,

300

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

51.

9%-3

.6%

N/A

-2.5

%-1

.2%

0.5%

5.1%

6.1%

-0.4

%-0

.6%

-0.3

%20

15-1

61.

0%0.

0%7.

6%-0

.2%

-2.4

%0.

2%0.

1%-1

.0%

-0.2

%-0

.3%

0.0%

2015

-25

0.4%

-0.3

%5.

9%-0

.9%

-1.1

%0.

2%1.

7%-0

.3%

-0.2

%-0

.3%

0.0%

2015

-36

0.3%

-0.3

%4.

8%-0

.6%

-0.6

%0.

4%2.

2%-0

.2%

0.1%

-0.1

%0.

1%*

Sou

rce:

FA

A U

.S. C

ivil A

irmen

Sta

tistic

s.1 In

stru

men

t rat

ed p

ilots

sho

uld

not b

e ad

ded

to o

ther

cat

egor

ies

in d

erivi

ng to

tal.

2 In J

uly

2010

, the

FA

A is

sued

a ru

le th

at in

crea

sed

the

dura

tion

of v

alid

ity fo

r stu

dent

pilo

t cer

tific

ates

for p

ilots

und

er th

e ag

e of

40

from

36

to 6

0 m

onth

s.

This

resu

lted

in th

e in

crea

se in

act

ive s

tude

nt p

ilots

to 1

19,1

19 fr

om 7

2,28

0 at

the

end

of 2

009.

Not

e: A

n ac

tive

pilo

t is

a pe

rson

with

a p

ilot c

ertif

icat

e an

d a

valid

med

ical

cer

tific

ate.

87

TAB

LE 3

1

GEN

ERA

L A

VIA

TIO

N A

IRC

RA

FT F

UEL

CO

NSUM

PTIO

N(In

Mill

ions

of G

allo

ns)

FIXE

D W

ING

PIS

TON

TUR

BIN

EE

XPE

RI-

TOTA

L FU

EL

CO

NS

UM

ED

CA

LEN

DA

RS

ING

LEM

ULT

I-TU

RB

O-

TUR

BO

-R

OTO

RC

RA

FTM

EN

TAL*

*/JE

TY

EA

RE

NG

INE

EN

GIN

EP

RO

PJE

TP

ISTO

NTU

RB

INE

OTH

ER

SP

OR

T**

AV

GA

SFU

EL

TOTA

LH

isto

rical

*20

0118

076

149

727

743

15N

/A27

991

81,

198

2008

143

6923

01,

313

1116

223

124

81,

706

1,95

420

0913

257

209

1,10

511

134

261

227

1,44

71,

674

2010

133

5418

71,

123

1112

522

122

11,

435

1,65

620

11E

130

5319

51,

125

1013

621

121

61,

456

1,67

220

1212

654

209

1,07

710

149

161

206

1,43

51,

641

2013

117

5418

994

59

126

161

197

1,26

01,

457

2014

120

4819

91,

135

1113

229

121

01,

466

1,67

620

15E

119

4819

61,

140

1013

531

120

81,

471

1,68

0

Fore

cast

2016

118

4719

21,

165

1014

031

120

71,

497

1,70

420

1711

747

191

1,20

210

143

311

206

1,53

61,

742

2018

116

4619

01,

239

1014

832

120

61,

576

1,78

220

1911

546

189

1,27

510

152

331

206

1,61

71,

823

2020

114

4619

01,

313

1115

734

120

61,

660

1,86

6

2021

113

4619

01,

350

1116

235

120

61,

702

1,90

820

2211

346

191

1,37

811

165

351

206

1,73

41,

940

2023

111

4519

21,

405

1216

936

120

61,

766

1,97

220

2411

145

193

1,43

512

172

372

206

1,80

02,

006

2025

110

4519

61,

464

1217

537

220

71,

836

2,04

2

2026

109

4519

91,

492

1318

038

220

71,

871

2,07

720

2710

845

201

1,52

013

182

382

206

1,90

32,

109

2028

107

4520

51,

549

1318

539

220

71,

939

2,14

620

2910

645

210

1,58

013

188

402

207

1,97

82,

184

2030

106

4521

41,

611

1419

240

220

72,

017

2,22

4

2031

105

4521

91,

643

1419

441

220

72,

056

2,26

420

3210

445

225

1,67

414

198

422

208

2,09

62,

304

2033

103

4523

01,

705

1420

243

220

82,

137

2,34

420

3410

345

235

1,73

615

206

432

208

2,17

72,

385

2035

102

4524

11,

773

1521

044

220

92,

224

2,43

320

3610

145

247

1,80

515

215

452

209

2,26

72,

476

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-2

.9%

-3.3

%2.

0%3.

3%2.

5%8.

6%5.

1%N

/A-2

.1%

3.4%

2.4%

2015

-16

-1.0

%-0

.9%

-1.7

%2.

1%-1

.4%

3.2%

1.1%

8.0%

-0.7

%1.

7%1.

4%20

15-2

5-0

.8%

-0.5

%0.

0%2.

5%2.

0%2.

6%2.

0%6.

1%-0

.1%

2.2%

2.0%

2015

-36

-0.8

%-0

.2%

1.1%

2.2%

2.0%

2.2%

1.8%

4.9%

0.0%

2.1%

1.9%

*Sou

rce:

FA

A A

PO

Est

imat

es.

**E

xper

imen

tal L

ight

-spo

rt ca

tego

ry th

at w

as p

revio

usly

sho

wn

unde

r Spo

rt A

ircra

ft is

mov

ed u

nder

Exp

erim

enta

l Airc

raft

cate

gory

, sta

rting

in 2

012.

N

ote:

Det

ail m

ay n

ot a

dd to

tota

l bec

ause

of i

ndep

ende

nt ro

undi

ng.

88

TAB

LE 3

2

TOTA

L C

OM

BIN

ED A

IRC

RA

FT O

PER

ATI

ONS

AT

AIR

POR

TS

WIT

H F

AA

AND

CO

NTR

AC

T TR

AFF

IC C

ONT

RO

L SE

RVI

CE

(In T

hous

ands

)

FIS

CA

LA

IRA

IR T

AXI

/G

EN

ER

AL

AV

IATI

ON

MIL

ITA

RY

NU

MB

ER

OF

TOW

ER

SY

EA

RC

AR

RIE

RC

OM

MU

TER

ITIN

ER

AN

TLO

CA

LTO

TAL

ITIN

ER

AN

TLO

CA

LTO

TAL

TOTA

LFA

AC

ON

TRA

CT

His

toric

al20

0114

,763

10,8

8221

,433

16,1

9437

,626

1,47

91,

438

2,91

766

,188

266

206

2008

13,7

8011

,032

17,4

9314

,081

31,5

741,

285

1,24

62,

531

58,9

1726

423

920

0912

,836

9,52

115

,571

12,4

4828

,019

1,30

51,

280

2,58

652

,962

264

244

2010

12,6

589,

410

14,8

6411

,716

26,5

801,

309

1,29

82,

607

51,2

5526

424

420

1112

,866

9,27

914

,528

11,4

3725

,965

1,31

91,

311

2,63

051

,123

264

248

2012

12,8

738,

994

14,5

2211

,608

26,1

301,

309

1,27

02,

579

50,7

5526

425

020

1312

,776

8,80

314

,117

11,6

8825

,806

1,27

51,

276

2,55

250

,057

264

252

2014

13,0

158,

440

13,9

7911

,675

25,6

541,

270

1,24

52,

515

49,6

2426

425

220

15E

13,7

557,

895

13,8

8711

,691

25,5

781,

292

1,20

32,

495

49,7

2326

425

2

Fore

cast

2016

14,4

987,

499

13,9

0311

,776

25,6

791,

292

1,20

32,

495

50,1

7226

425

220

1715

,000

7,39

013

,942

11,8

2225

,765

1,29

21,

203

2,49

550

,651

264

252

2018

15,5

627,

177

13,9

8211

,869

25,8

511,

292

1,20

32,

495

51,0

8626

425

220

1916

,168

6,91

614

,022

11,9

1625

,938

1,29

21,

203

2,49

551

,517

264

252

2020

16,8

346,

641

14,0

6211

,963

26,0

261,

292

1,20

32,

495

51,9

9626

425

2

2021

17,5

616,

294

14,1

0312

,011

26,1

141,

292

1,20

32,

495

52,4

6426

425

220

2218

,350

5,83

714

,144

12,0

5926

,203

1,29

21,

203

2,49

552

,885

264

252

2023

18,9

805,

544

14,1

8412

,108

26,2

921,

292

1,20

32,

495

53,3

1126

425

220

2419

,373

5,52

814

,226

12,1

5626

,382

1,29

21,

203

2,49

553

,778

264

252

2025

19,7

065,

579

14,2

6712

,206

26,4

731,

292

1,20

32,

495

54,2

5326

425

2

2026

20,0

535,

631

14,3

0912

,255

26,5

641,

292

1,20

32,

495

54,7

4326

425

220

2720

,403

5,68

514

,351

12,3

0526

,656

1,29

21,

203

2,49

555

,239

264

252

2028

20,7

515,

738

14,3

9312

,355

26,7

491,

292

1,20

32,

495

55,7

3326

425

220

2921

,096

5,79

214

,436

12,4

0626

,842

1,29

21,

203

2,49

556

,225

264

252

2030

21,4

405,

847

14,4

7912

,457

26,9

361,

292

1,20

32,

495

56,7

1926

425

2

2031

21,7

865,

902

14,5

2212

,509

27,0

311,

292

1,20

32,

495

57,2

1426

425

220

3222

,147

5,95

814

,566

12,5

6127

,126

1,29

21,

203

2,49

557

,726

264

252

2033

22,5

186,

016

14,6

0912

,613

27,2

221,

292

1,20

32,

495

58,2

5126

425

220

3422

,906

6,07

514

,653

12,6

6627

,319

1,29

21,

203

2,49

558

,795

264

252

2035

23,2

996,

137

14,6

9812

,719

27,4

161,

292

1,20

32,

495

59,3

4826

425

220

3623

,695

6,19

914

,742

12,7

7227

,514

1,29

21,

203

2,49

559

,904

264

252

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-0

.5%

-2.3

%-3

.1%

-2.3

%-2

.7%

-1.0

%-1

.3%

-1.1

%-2

.0%

2015

-16

5.4%

-5.0

%0.

1%0.

7%0.

4%0.

0%0.

0%0.

0%0.

9%20

15-2

53.

7%-3

.4%

0.3%

0.4%

0.3%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.9%

2015

-36

2.6%

-1.1

%0.

3%0.

4%0.

3%0.

0%0.

0%0.

0%0.

9%S

ourc

e: F

AA

Air

Traf

fic A

ctivi

ty.

89

TAB

LE 3

3

TOTA

L TR

AC

ON

OPE

RA

TIO

NS(In

Tho

usan

ds)

FIS

CA

LA

IRA

IR T

AXI

/G

EN

ER

AL

YE

AR

CA

RR

IER

CO

MM

UTE

RA

VIA

TIO

NM

ILIT

AR

YTO

TAL

His

toric

al20

0115

,879

11,3

0819

,270

3,46

549

,921

2008

14,4

4311

,048

15,7

632,

400

43,6

5420

0913

,302

9,62

314

,151

2,39

939

,475

2010

13,1

749,

511

13,8

642,

438

38,9

8720

1113

,068

9,34

913

,503

2,37

538

,295

2012

13,0

458,

977

13,4

242,

332

37,7

7820

1312

,914

8,79

713

,048

2,22

536

,984

2014

13,1

868,

390

13,0

182,

229

36,8

2320

15E

13,9

647,

864

13,0

792,

286

37,1

93

Fore

cast

2016

14,7

027,

426

13,0

402,

286

37,4

5520

1715

,203

7,30

313

,101

2,28

637

,893

2018

15,7

617,

064

13,1

562,

286

38,2

6720

1916

,362

6,77

113

,211

2,28

638

,631

2020

17,0

246,

465

13,2

702,

286

39,0

45

2021

17,7

456,

080

13,3

282,

286

39,4

3920

2218

,525

5,57

213

,380

2,28

639

,763

2023

19,1

505,

244

13,4

342,

286

40,1

1520

2419

,544

5,22

113

,495

2,28

640

,547

2025

19,8

795,

272

13,5

582,

286

40,9

95

2026

20,2

285,

323

13,6

222,

286

41,4

5920

2720

,580

5,37

713

,686

2,28

641

,929

2028

20,9

305,

431

13,7

502,

286

42,3

9720

2921

,277

5,48

413

,814

2,28

642

,862

2030

21,6

245,

539

13,8

792,

286

43,3

27

2031

21,9

735,

593

13,9

442,

286

43,7

9520

3222

,335

5,64

814

,010

2,28

644

,279

2033

22,7

095,

707

14,0

782,

286

44,7

8020

3423

,099

5,76

714

,147

2,28

645

,300

2035

23,4

955,

830

14,2

172,

286

45,8

2920

3623

,894

5,89

414

,288

2,28

646

,361

Avg

Ann

ual G

row

th20

01-1

5-0

.9%

-2.6

%-2

.7%

-2.9

%-2

.1%

2015

-16

5.3%

-5.6

%-0

.3%

0.0%

0.7%

2015

-25

3.6%

-3.9

%0.

4%0.

0%1.

0%20

15-3

62.

6%-1

.4%

0.4%

0.0%

1.1%

Sou

rce:

FA

A A

ir Tr

affic

Act

ivity

.

90

TAB

LE 3

4

IFR

AIR

CR

AFT

HA

NDLE

D

AT

FA

A E

N R

OUT

E T

RA

FFIC

CO

NTR

OL

CEN

TER

S(In

Tho

usan

ds)

IFR

AIR

CR

AFT

HA

ND

LED

FIS

CA

LA

IRA

IR T

AXI

/G

EN

ER

AL

YE

AR

CA

RR

IER

CO

MM

UTE

RA

VIA

TIO

NM

ILIT

AR

Y

TO

TAL

His

toric

al20

0124

,866

8,30

38,

025

4,03

945

,232

2008

23,8

9510

,179

7,67

13,

649

45,3

9420

0922

,407

8,56

26,

332

2,99

340

,293

2010

22,3

428,

624

6,55

02,

982

40,4

9820

1123

,432

9,01

06,

557

2,22

841

,227

2012

23,6

518,

932

6,47

21,

860

40,9

1520

1323

,205

8,67

36,

440

1,67

639

,994

2014

24,2

678,

507

6,74

11,

830

41,3

4620

15E

25,2

707,

847

7,00

71,

795

41,9

18

Fore

cast

2016

25,9

757,

711

7,06

11,

795

42,5

4120

1726

,692

7,57

97,

119

1,79

543

,185

2018

27,3

717,

424

7,16

11,

795

43,7

5120

1928

,049

7,25

77,

198

1,79

544

,299

2020

28,7

717,

089

7,24

21,

795

44,8

97

2021

29,4

566,

944

7,28

11,

795

45,4

7520

2230

,097

6,78

07,

307

1,79

545

,978

2023

30,7

676,

614

7,33

81,

795

46,5

1320

2431

,511

6,45

67,

380

1,79

547

,142

2025

32,2

376,

339

7,42

51,

795

47,7

96

2026

32,8

856,

320

7,47

51,

795

48,4

7620

2733

,548

6,29

97,

528

1,79

549

,170

2028

34,2

196,

274

7,58

21,

795

49,8

6920

2934

,895

6,24

47,

635

1,79

550

,570

2030

35,5

706,

220

7,69

01,

795

51,2

76

2031

36,2

076,

241

7,74

61,

795

51,9

8820

3236

,861

6,26

37,

803

1,79

552

,722

2033

37,5

346,

286

7,86

31,

795

53,4

7720

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