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INFRASTRUCTURE:
BACK TO CADBURY OR ON TO CAMELOT
In a recent book on "The Discovery of King Arthur," the author1
presented a synthesis of a number of historical and archaeological facts
which had never been brought together before. The author, Geoffrey Ashe,
was able to show the time frame and circumstances when Arthur lived and
even to show letters that had been written to him in his lifetime.
Some may not approve of such a study since it seems to diminish or,
in some way, dishonor a legend. As a legend, Arthur can be a powerful
exemplar of all virtues. Only the imagination can constrain the stories
that can be told and the lessons that can be taken from them. But if he
is an actual historical human being, then Arthur must suffer from the
same flaws and failings that we all have and it diminishes his value as a
mythical hero.
But I hold a different view. If King Arthur is real, then the fond
memories in which he is held are the strongest indications that we have
of his having found the courage and strength to overcome his limits and
his human circumstances, and to perform deeds for which a grateful
Britain still reveres his memory. In my way of thinking, his being real
and human, rather than legendary, makes it even better to point to him as
a tangible example of a flesh-and-blood hero. That is why Geoffrey
Ashe's book intrigued me.
Arthur was born in the 420's and died or disappeared in 470 A.D.,
1 Ashe, G. The Discovery of King Arthur: Henry Holt and Co. New York. 1987.
I
and ruled for around twenty-five years. During his lifetime, Britain was
invaded by waves of barbaric nomads from Saxony in Germany. According to
the archaeological evidence, when the Saxons invaded a town, they
pillaged and looted it and never occupied it. Instead, they let it fall
into ruins.
Arthur was the military leader of a coalition of British towns whose
leaders considered themselves the equal of one another. Arthur was the
first among equals. This may be the reason for the round table where
they met. No one leader had precedence over any other.
Arthur and his army fought a series of battles against the nomads,
forced them to retreat, and won a respite for the Britons. Later, the
Saxons returned, there was more conflict, but according to the evidence,
the later Saxons settled down to live in towns and villages like to
Britons and were good neighbors.
But in the early period when they constituted a threat, Arthur's
efforts and those who united with him scored a temporary victory for the
continuation of permanent community living in England. Arthur was caught
up in a pattern of conflict that was going on all over the world at that
time, between the "pastoral nomads" and the "agriculturalists", as the
Greek philosopher Aristotle called the two cultures in 350 B.C. The
"agriculturalists" lived in permanent settlements and depended on crops
and trade to sustain them. The pastoral nomads thrived on grazing herds
which had to migrate on to new territories when the land had become
exhausted.
There is a suggestion of this conflict in the Book of Genesis in the
story of Cain and Abel. Abel, who was favored by God, and by the Hebrews
2
who wrote of him, kept flocks and was a "pastoral nomad" as were the
Hebrews. On the other hand, Cain tilled the soil and was an
"agriculturalist". His killing of Abel in the open country undoubtedly
recalls an ancient memory of such conflicts which the Hebrews had during
their lives as nomads.
Arthur was caught up in the same pattern but on the side of those
who stood for permanent communities. His place in history and legend was
established by the fond memories his people retained of his heroic
struggles. According to the archaeological evidence, his headquarters
may well have been on the mound in the southwest of England, in Somerset,
known as Cadbury Castle (Figure 1). Excavations around the top of the
large, flat-topped mound indicate that in the time of Arthur, around 450
to 500 A.D., a strong rampart and parapet wall was built entirely around
the summit (Figure 2). Here is a picture of what the wall looked like
(Figure 3). And the southeast gate tower (Figure 4). Here are some of
the excavations as they were being carried out (Figure 5).
There is evidence of buildings and walls at Cadbury both before and
after Arthur's time, and even of a Roman attack, 400 years before
Arthur's time, at the time of Claudius Caesar under the Roman General
Vespasian. However, it appears that Cadbury had reached its grandest
level when Arthur was the king, and Camelot was in its glory.
How did Camelot disappear and what turned it into the ruins of
Cadbury? We don't know because the evidence is inconclusive. There is a
hint in the legends of Arthur concerning the betrayal that led to his
fatal wound. Arthur's tragedy was in having all that he had worked for
deteriorate into disunity and defeat. Although he had shown consistent
3
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BRlTJ.\lN DURlNc; THe SIXTH AND seveNTH ceNTURies
MERCIA
Figure 1. Britain During the Sixth and Seventh Centuries. (Ref. 1).
4
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Figure 2. Model of Cadbury Castle.
2wheeler, M. (Editor), The Excavation of Cadbury Castle, 1966-1970, Thames and Hudson, 1972.
I I I , ~
I
Figure 3. Section of Cadbury Castle Rampart Wall. (Ref. 2).
6
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rt and south-west gate-tower. For soml' of the
Figure 4. Reconstruction of Southwest Gate Tower. (Ref. 2).
7
Figure 5. Excavations at Cadbury Castle. (Ref. 2).
8
courage and wisdom, in the end it was a coalition of his enemies and
former friends that brought him down. Camelot may have suffered a
similar fate.
The example of Cadbury provides an object lesson that without
deliberate persevering effort, even our most glorious monuments to
civilization will decay into ruins. It is a lesson as old as the Urban
Revolution.
Civilization's Time Line
It is worth while to review briefly how we got where we are and
where King Arthur's times fit into the historical development of
community life on this planet. The table on the following page shows
approximate dates when the major events in civilizations history have
occurred. It is also illustrated in Figure 6. Before 7000 B.C., all
humans were engaged in hunting and gathering, a migratory life style that
required low population densities. Around 7000 B.C. some groups began to
cultivate plants for food and to live in permanent or semi-permanent
villages. This permitted a higher population density and some
specialization into trades and crafts. In the next 3000 years, the
cultivation of cereal grains which could be stored for long periods of
time and agricultural surplus made it possible for people to live
together in true cities of several thousands in population. Cities of
this size and organization were established around 4000 B.C. once means
of collecting, transporting, and distributing the surplus were developed.
A need for military security from barbaric pastoral nomads gave rise to
the beginnings of the modern state. This period lasted from 4000 B.C. to
1750 A.D., and is the period where we find King Arthur. World population
9
Figure 6. Rise of World and Urban Population. (Ref. 3).
URBAN CIVILIZATIONS TIME LINE
Cultural Event
Hunting and Gathering Before 7000 B.C.
Agricultural Revolution 7000 B.C.
Urban Revolution 4000 B.C. (Time of Conflict between pastoral nomads and agriculturalists)
First Industrial Revolution 1750 A.D.
Second Industrial Revolution 1900 A.D
Third Industrial Revolution 1950 A.D.
11
Significance
Required low population density
Pre-urban communities
Agri cul tura 1 surplus made this possible, people began to concentrate in cities
Iron, Steam, Coal, Mass Production
Glass, Petroleum, Electricity, Medicine, Public Health
Electronics, Computers, Nuclear, Biotechnology
continued to increase slowly, putting more and more pressure on the
nomads to change their life style. Conflict between pastoral nomads and
agriculturalist cultures as in the opening of the American West
characterized this period. Warfare became organized and professional
leading to military conquest and empires. By the time of the First
Industrial Revolution, beginning around 1750 A.D., world population had
reached 500 million. The industrial use of iron, and steam and coal for
energy, and mass production methods accelerated the pace of urbanization,
bringing with it serious public health and sanitation problems. The
Second Industrial Revolution beginning around 1900 not only saw mass
production and use of glass, of petroleum and electricity for energy, but
significant advances in medicine and public health which greatly reduced
deaths by epidemic. The Third Industrial Revolution began in about 1950
with the use of electronics, computers, and nuclear energy and more
recently, advances in biotechnology. From 1800 to 1970, urban population
had grown from 3 to 37 percent of the world population. 3
Agriculture and cities demand infrastructure and that requires
engineers. No human occupation is so directly involved in creating a
cultural revolution or in responding to the needs it creates than are
engineers. As could be expected, each major revolution created
fundamental changes and re-structuring in the services provided by
engineers. This is illustrated in Figure 7.
The Agricultural Revolution required irrigation and large storage
buildings giving rise to the first agricultural engineers. The Urban
Revolution brought the need for water supply, sanitation, roads and
3 Light, Ivan. Cities in World Perspective. Macmillan. New York. 1983.
12
Figure 7. The Evolution of Engineering.
bridges, and public buildings, requiring the first civil engineers to
emerge. The onset of organized warfare and the need for defense works
required the arts of the military engineer. When we look again at the
feats of mastery over nature that were performed by King Arthur's wizard,
Merlin, we realize that many of them were engineering tasks.
The first major alteration in engineering occurred in the First
Industrial Revolution which saw the rise of Mechanical and Chemical
Engineering. The United States Congress, recognizing the importance of
having capable engineers in this country founded the first U. S.
engineering school at West Point and its brightest students were
commissioned in the Corps of Engineers, including Robert E. Lee and
Douglas McArthur.
With the discovery of oil, and the invention of the automobile and
airplane, the initiation of treated water supply and water-borne sewage,
the revolutions in medicine in anesthetics, in discovering germs as a
cause of infection, a cure for yellow fever and identifying the mosquito
as the bearer of malaria, the generation and transmission of alternating
current electrical power, the beginning of the twentieth century saw the
Second Industrial Revolution and the emergency of Environmental,
Petroleum, Aeronautical, Electrical, and Industrial engineers.
Experimentation with radio, television, radar and atomic and
biological theory in the 1920's and 1930's resulted after World War II in
the Third Industrial Revolution which saw the rise of Electronics,
Computer Science, Nuclear, and Bioengineers and the transformation of
Aeronautical into Aerospace engineers.
All of the types of engineers are involved in some way with
14
industry. In addition, civil, agricultural, and electrical engineers are
directly involved in the infrastructure that not only supports urban
civilization but also the agriculture and industry with which that
civilization supports itself. This succession of revolutions not only
created the need for engineers, but the presence of engineers actually
fueled the revolutions and made the growth of civilization possible.
Human Mobil itv
As the world population grew, urban concentrations began to exceed
one million people. The percentage of people who lived in urban
surroundings increased dramatically after 1800.
Percent of World Population
Date Urban Cities over 100.000
1800 3.0 1.7
1850 6.4 2.3
1900 13.6 5.5
1950 28.2 16.2
1970 36.9 23.8
Urban industrialization has resulted in larger populations, larger
cities, more cities, and more people living in cities. These larger
concentrations of people required more attention to collecting,
transporting, and distributing goods and services, and required humans to
move around over distances within the cities as part of their normal
15
pattern of existence. Living in cities reduced. the distances that had to
be traveled to a minimum, but that minimum distance and the time it took
to cover it kept rising as cities grew larger. The age of the person
played a role in his natural mobility (Figure 8). There is a limit to
the size of the city that is workable without some form of mechanical
assistance in mobility.
As a matter of fact, according to one architect, C. A. Doxiadis,
once the average mobility time exceeds ten minutes men begin looking for
mechanical ways to reduce it. 4 In Figure 9, the first mechanical
assistance came in the form of the horse and buggy. The second
mechanical means, the auto, plus trains, trolleys, subways, etc. was
adopted when the city grew still larger. The third and fourth machines
shown on the graph have not been invented yet.
All of this mechanical assistance comes at a cost. For all of human
history, people have been trying to reduce the amount of personal energy
expended on moving around, acquiring the necessities of life. As shown
in Figure 10, hunting and gathering required a lot more energy than in
later cultures. However, with the growth of urban civilization since
1750, the total energy expended on movement as a percent of the total,
has been rising as shown in Figure 11. Smart vehicles, once they are
developed, may reduce the mobility time somewhat but their major
contribution will be to cut down on the use of energy, and on the
resulting pollution.
Providing the infrastructure for the mobility, the civil and public
4 Doxiadis, C. A. Anthropopolis. City for Human Development. W. W. Norton & Company, New York. 1974.
16
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Figure 11. Energy Spent on Mobility and Transportation as a Percentage of Total Energy. (Ref. 4).
health services in urban communities and maintaining them in good
condition begins to cost more per capita as the perimeter around the
concentration of people grows, as shown in Figure 12.
These costs are based upon the entire urban area being productive
and able to produce the needed per capita tax rate. As the interior
portion of the city decays, its infrastructure deteriorates or is under
capacity, the costs per capita increase exponentially, simply because the
geometric layout of the city makes it more expensive to provide mobility,
civil and public health services. This is a negative cost of allowing
the infrastructure to become inoperative.
So there is a double cost as cities grow beyond about 100,000
population: one is to provide infrastructure to a more widespread area
and the second is to make up for the underproductive, deteriorated
infrastructure in the interior of the city.
At this point, the sobering reflections of Josef Konvitz in his book
"The Urban Millennium" 5, should be considered.
The problem of obsolescence and renewal is not only a function
of technological and social change, which reduces demand for certain
kinds of buildings and locations and increases demand for others,
but also of the cost and effort involved in modifying existing
buildings and districts compared with the cost and effort of new
construction. 6 It is obvious that infrastructure systems contribute
to these conditions directly in transportation facilities; and
5Konvitz, J. W. The Urban Millennium. Southern Illinois University Press, Carbonda 1 e, Ill . , 1985.
6Moore, P. W. "Pub 1 i c Services and Resident i a 1 Deve 1 opment in a Toronto Neighborhood, 1880-1915", Journal of Urban History, Vol. 9, 1983.
21
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indirectly in the degree to which regulation affects the cost and
time of rehabilitation, and in the degree to which certain fixed
services cannot be expanded or modified in a building or district or
district to accommodate new uses. In America, the costs of renewal
or rehabilitation already began to exceed the economic potential of
modernized buildings by the 1930s. Urban development before modern
infrastructures encouraged redevelopment and conversion to new uses,
but infrastructures have provided people with attractive
alternatives to redevelopment. 7
In one sense, the problem of obsolescence and renewal is a
problem of capitalism when the private sector no longer generates
sufficient economic growth to make renewal and redevelopment
profitable. Yet, public funds are not adequate, either. Even the
major increase in public expenditures in the last twenty years has
only made a dent in the problem. 8 Problems in European cities are
different in their specific characteristics-for example, much of the
blight in the Paris region is in the suburbs rather than the central
city-but not in their root causes. Before solutions can be
contemplated, there must first come a recognition that the creation
of blighted areas which are difficult to renew and redevelop is not
just the result of some social, economic, and political factors
which converge in particular circumstances, but is instead intrinsic
to and inherent in city building in the twentieth century.
7Lewis, J. P. Building Cycles and Britain's Growth. Macmillan, London, 1965.
8Lampard, E. E. Urbanization of the United States. Villes en Mutation, XIX-XX siecles. Quoted in Ref. 4.
23
The problem of adaptability and renewal ultimately affects
infrastructure systems themselves; indeed, the difficulty of
modifying fixed systems such as road networks and sewer and water
mains contributes to the problem of obsolescence and renewal in
smaller-scale districts and in individual buildings, and reinforces
other constraints on adaptability, such as zoning.
The infrastructure itself poses ultimate questions of
obsolescence and renewal. Whether from lack of maintenance or from
social, economic, and technological obsolescence, many aspects of
infrastructure systems will have to be changed, rebuilt, or
abandoned in the years to come. Several systems, all at the same
time, are approaching the end of their useful life cycles and now
require attention: superhighways built thirty years ago, sewer and
water mains built a half-century ago, bridges built a hundred years
ago. The costs involved are seemingly astronomical.
In many cities, adequate maps of infrastructure systems do not
exist, and there are no standardized replacement/repair analyses.
"Only the most limited information exists about various techniques
to extend the life of present facilities, or about conservation and
cost-cutting mechanisms."9 We know in general that almost half the
bridges in the United States must be rebuilt or abandoned, that
nearly 320,000 kilometers of highway need some level of capital
investment in the 1980s, and that one-half of the nation's
communities have wastewater treatment systems that cannot support
9Choate, P. "Special Report on U.S. Economic Infrastructure," U.S. House of Representatives. Quoted in Ref. 4.
24
further economic expansion. The cost of maintaining existing levels
of service in America has been put at between $2.5 and $3 trillion,
but at current expenditure levels less than a third of the funds
will be available.
Rebuilding the urban infrastructure will be vastly more
difficult than its original construction because the conditions that
favored its construction have altered. First, few cities are
growing rapidly; many of the largest, where the infrastructure has
deteriorated most severely, are stable or declining in size.
Second, the costs of urban development have risen enormously, a
reflection in part of larger scale and technological complexity.
The regulatory framework, very modest eighty years ago, now imposes
additional social costs, retards construction, and politicizes many
decisions. Third, energy costs are likely to rise in real terms.
Other resource-related factors may affect rebuilding. "The losses
of obsolescence cannot simply be reckoned as the costs of
rebuilding ... They may also include the exhaustion of resources
which cannot be replaced." 1° Finally, public attitudes on such
matters as historical preservation and environmental safety affect
judgments about what should be preserved and what should be rebuilt.
Public recognition of the infrastructure problem has been slow
in coming. As a result, the problems may get much worse before
action is taken. The cost of rebuilding the infrastructure is so
high that it will not be met.
If the infrastructure is not maintained, supporting an active and
10Lynch, K. A Theory of Good City Form. MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 1981.
25
productive populace, it not only deteriorates but also it contributes to
increasing the costs to the remaining population in an urban area.
Continued neglect of this problem can grow exponentially into a massive
problem -- one so large, in fact, that it can mean a reversal of the
urbanization trends since 1750. What it means in concrete detail is a
matter for speculation.
The science fiction movies that have appeared in the last decade or
so that are cast some time in the future in the aftermath of a nuclear
war show what may well be the result of our continued neglect of
infrastructure. In these movies, humans have returned to small
communities of warring nomads living in the wreckage of destroyed cities.
This picture can actually be brought about without nuclear warfare at
all!
Just simply by neglecting the infrastructure, the essential support
characteristic of our post-industrial civilization, not only blight and
deterioration, but also epidemics and violence from urban nomads will
return to work their inevitable destruction. The same ultimate picture
will be produced with the only real difference being that it will happen
slowly, not cataclysmically, imperceptibly at first and then more rapidly
as the pace of the deterioration of the infrastructure accelerates.
Perhaps we need another Rachel Carson to tell this story.
But the story need not be told if we deliberately and consciously
choose to enter our Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Infrastructure
Revolution.
26
Infrastructure - What Is It?
Let's pause briefly to describe in some detail what modern
infrastructure amounts to. It can be classified into six groups 11:
1. Roads group
2. Transportation services group
3. Water group
4. Waste management group
5. Buildings and recreation group
6. Energy production and distribution
The groups may each be further classified as follows:
Roads Group
This includes:
1. Highways
2. Bridges
3. Streets
Transportation Services Group
This group includes:
1. Transmit
2. Rail
3. Parts
4. Airports
5. Lighting
6. Signing and control
group
11 Grigg, Neil S. Infrastructure Engineering and Management. Wiley and Sons, New York. 1988.
27
Water Group
This group includes:
1. Water supply including dams, reservoirs,
treatment and distribution
2. Waste water including collection, treatment, and
disposal
3. Waterways and navigation
4. Flood control and drainage
5. Irrigation
Waste Management Group
This group includes:
1. Solid waste management system including
collection, land fill, and incineration
2. Hazardous waste containment
3. Recycling and reuse systems
Buildings and Recreation Group
This group includes:
1. Schools and hospitals
2. Police, fire, jails and
3. Public buildings
4. Public housing
5. Parks and playgrounds
6. Recreation facilities
7. Stadiums
28
prisons
Energy Production and Distribution Group
This group includes:
1. Electricity generation and distribution
2. Natural gas production and distribution
As noted before, the features that all of these have in common is
that they deteriorate and with the growth of population or
industrialization, they reach and exceed capacity. It is worth
considering the deterioration of infrastructure more in detail for it
offers a clue as to how we can do something positive about it and
actually, with time and perseverance, to take control of its effects on
our destiny.
Patterns of Infrastructure Deterioration
While the subject is very detailed and complex, the overall patterns
that infrastructure deterioration follow can be understood by taking a
simple example of one element of infrastructure, the light bulb, as in
Figure 13. If someone started with 100 light bulbs and turned them all
on at the same time and recorded when each of them burned out, the
distribution of light bulb life times would look like the diagram in
Figure 13.
Now if that person replaced a light bulb each time one burned out,
the number of light bulbs to be replaced would form the oscillating
pattern shown in Figure 14. With times much greater than the life of a
light bulb, the pattern begins to stabilize.
Infrastructure is really more complex than this. There are usually
29
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numerous alternatives to consider, some being maintenance and others
rehabilitation or replacement, each having its own costs and best times
or conditions in which to apply it. The overall costs are greatly
affected by the choices of alternatives and timing that are made. This
is illustrated in Figure 15 in which the best time and best alternative
are found when the annual cost curve reaches its minimum point. Each of
the steps in the maintenance or rehabilitation costs curve represents
another alternative treatment applied at the appropriate stage of
deterioration. The annual costs will rise if the wrong thing is done at
the wrong time, as usually happens when maintenance and rehabilitation
are unplanned, and no effort is made to select a best time and a best
alternative.
Figure 16 shows the difference in annual costs that occur under the
two different conditions: unplanned and planned with optimization. No
time scale is shown because it depends on the life scale of each type of
infrastructure. The peaks are one life-time apart. If all of the waste
is eliminated, the percentage by which the funds may be used better may
be estimated from actual experience with highway pavements, one of the
more advanced elements of infrastructure in planning and optimization.
PERCENT BETTER USE OF THE FUNDS
PERCENT
PLANNING 20 - 40%
OPTIMIZATION 10 - 20%
TOTAL 30 - 60%
Now compare these estimates with estimated needs and resources for
32
Figure 15. Infrastructure Annual Cost Patterns.
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Figure 16. Infrastructure System Annual Costs With and Without Management.
various infrastructure elements that were made for the Joint Economic
Committee12 and National Council on Public Works Improvement 13 for the
period between 1983 and 2000.
NEEDS AND RESOURCES ($ BILLIONS)
Infrastructure Element Needs Resources Short Fall Percent
Highways and Bridges 720 455 265 35 Other Transportation 178 90 88 49 Water Supply and Distribution 96 55 41 43
Wastewater Collection and Treatment 163 114 49 30
TOTALS 1157 714 443 38
The job of technically managing and engineering the infrastructure
can do a lot to narrow the gap between the needs and the resources, as
can be seen from the two previous tables, but it remains to be seen just
what it takes to do a good job of engineering and managing. Also, it
must be stated that while this is the most important part, it is not all
of what is required to fuel the Fourth Industrial Revolution. A
description of a more complete strategy is given later.
12 University of Colorado at Denver. Hard Choices: A report on the Increasing Gap Between America's Infrastructure Needs and Our Ability to Pay for Them. Denver, February, 1984.
13 Nation a 1 Council for Pub 1 i c Works Improvement. The Nation's Pub 1 i c Works: Defining the Context. Washington, D. C., October, 1986.
35
Infrastructure Engineering and Management
What does it take to do a sound and thorough job of the engineering
management of infrastructure? It can be summarized into five steps:
1. Condition Data Collection. It is impossible to manage any
infrastructure network without knowing what you have (inventory)
and what its current condition is. This latter is obtained
periodic monitoring.
2. Data Storage, Retrieval, and Display. Once the data are
collected, they must be stored in an easily retrievable form that
can be displayed graphically. This visual element is important
because it gives human judgement its first opportunity to view
both the big picture and the details of the problems as they
exist.
3. Modeling, Needs Projection, and Future Conditions. The data must
be used to develop mathematical models of the various forms of
deterioration that occur. This requires an engineering
understanding of each deterioration process so that an accurate
diagnosis is possible. Models can then make reasonable
predictions of future conditions and needs, and appropriate
repair, maintenance, rehabilitation, reconstruction, or
retrofitting selections can be made.
4. Optimization and Decision Support. There are numerous methods of
assisting the engineering manager in sorting through the numerous
tasks and alternatives and selecting the best one at the right
time while remaining within the available resources. The
selection of the best method and a careful definition of what is
36
to be achieved is crucial to the success of this step.
5. Decisions and Action. The four previous steps will be of little
use if they are not carried into action. This requires that the
entire community and not just the managers understand the
importance of the process and support it. The managers must not
only believe in it but carry it into action. Action requires
contingent funding to be available to capitalize upon
opportunities to optimize and cut long range costs.
Each of these five steps will require some research and development
work in order to be in a position to do the job well, to capitalize on
the equipment and techniques that have already been developed in other
fields, and to forge ahead and develop others that are not yet available.
A brief review of each of the five steps shows some of the opportunities
that are already at hand.
1. Condition Data Collection. In both the inventory and monitoring
process, infrastructure engineering can make use of most, if not all, of
the technology that is currently being used in the War in the Persian
Gulf. The following list gives some examples:
1. Geographical positioning system (GPS)
2. Infrared
3. Laser reflection
4. Holographic ultrasonics
5. Radar
6. Ultraviolet
7. Video and infrared imaging
37
8. Wave propagation: near and far field
The full range of the electromagnetic spectrum and then some! And all of
the vehicles to carry the instrumentation, data recording, and data
reduction equipment while the data are being collected. The need for
automated inventory and monitoring equipment is largely because it is
either unsafe (traffic and waste management) on inaccessible (water,
waste water, and storm sewers) to humans.
2. Data Storage, Retrieval and Display. Some of the techniques
that are ready for adaptation to uses in infrastructure management are:
1. Laser disk data storage
2. Geographical Information System (GIS)
3. Modeling, Needs Projections, Future Conditions. This step
requires knowledge not only of mathematical modeling techniques but a
sound diagnostic understanding of infrastructure deterioration processes
and of new materials and construction and retrofitting capabilities, some
of which are listed below:
1. Expert systems
2. Markov and semi-markov processes
3. Stochastic processes
4. Material properties, deterioration mechanisms
5. Reliability concepts
6. New organic and inorganic materials
7. Construction, recycling, repair and retrofitting methods
38
Much research and developmental work remains to be done in these
subjects. There are numerous opportunities for capital investment in
this entire area.
4. Optimization and Decision Support. In this area, much that has
been developed in the fields of economics and operations research needs
to be transferred and adapted to serve the purposes of infrastructure,
including:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Utility theory
Linear and non-linear programming
Integer programming
Dynamic programming
Heuristic methods of optimization
5. Decisions and Action. This may be the step requiring the most
extensive efforts, including education and training and working out
innovative public and private partnership methods of financing.
The list given above shows much that is already available in other
areas that can be readily adapted to the needs of infrastructure
engineering management. This is really only a part, though perhaps the
most important part, of an overall strategy to take control of the
destiny of our urban civilization. The list below is a strategy for
improving America's public works recommended by the National Council on
39
Public Works lmprovement14 to the President and Congress of the U. S. in
1988:
No single approach is adequate to ensure the
future viability of America's infrastructure. A
broad range of measures is necessary to make a
meaningful difference by the turn of the century.
Specifically, these should include:
• A national commitment, shared by all levels of
government and the private sector, to increase
capital spending by as much as 100 percent
above current levels.
• Clarification of the respective roles of the
federal, state, and local governments in
infrastructure construction and management to
focus responsibility and increase
accountability;
• More flexible administration of federal and
state mandates to allow cost-effective methods
of compliance;
• Accelerated spending of the federal highway,
transit, aviation, and waterways trust funds;
• Financing of a larger share of the cost of
public works by those who benefit from
services;
14 Fragile Foundations: A Report on America's Public Works. National Council on Public Works Improvement. Supt. of Documents. Washington, D. C. 1988.
40
• Removal of unwarranted limits on the ability of
state and local governments to help themselves
through tax-exempt financing:
• Strong incentives for maintenance of capital
assets and the use of low-capital techniques
such as demand management, coordinated land-use
planning, and waste reduction and recycling;
• Additional support for research and development
to accelerate technological innovation and for
training of public works professionals; and
• A rational capital budgeting process at all
levels of government.
What can be said of public works may also be said of private
industrial infrastructure as well.
A few more suggestions are warranted at this point, to emphasize the
importance, not of the problems we face, but really of the opportunities
that lay within our grasp on this historical threshold of the Fourth
Industrial Revolution.
We need the vision to initiate a national public works program on
the scale in both time and financing of the Interstate Highway System to
assist in rebuilding America, and a correlative thrust in private
industry. The numerous benefits that will accrue in new methods,
products, and services will afford opportunities for genuine growth in
our universities and our construction and industrial enterprises as well
as for a more humane standard of living for people all over the world.
41
When the war is over and peace returns, we can hopefully spend the
"peace dividend" in:
a. retraining of military personnel prior to their being released
from active duty, giving them practical experience in managing
the infrastructure of the army posts and air and naval bases
around the world
b. research and development to convert wartime technology to its
use in infrastructure engineering management
We need the people to carry out this program. We need our brightest
and most capable people to devote their talents, the very same talents
and ideas that we are using in the Persian Gulf now, to the arts of peace
and commerce in support of civilization. We need for all people, but our
young people especially, to recognize not only the opportunities that
this necessary re-orientation of society creates for them but also its
fundamental importance for civilization. The human race has never had to
face this kind of frontier before.
Knights of the Twenty First Century
And here, the picture of Arthur and his gallant knights returns,
rushing upon us with warm, symbolic memories - symbols of the greatest
and most noble, most courageous and most persevering of all that humans
can achieve.
Arthur was faced with profound uncertainty, and so are we. Arthur
had to contend with human failings -- misunderstanding, opposition, even
betrayal, --and so undoubtedly will we. Arthur was caught in a
crosstide of conflict between cultures, one on the decline and another,
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the reluctant, embryonic hope for the future. Arthur, in his turbulent
circumstances, created something entirely new -- never seen before - the
order of the round table. As a symbol of human equality of purpose, it
engendered what it symbolized -- the uncommon honor of preserving and
advancing civilization. We, at a rare juncture in human history, have
the chance to follow his lead.
The dragons of old are no more fearful than the scales and claws of
the problems we face, but our combat will not be with lance and sword;
instead, our weapons will be the civil and peaceful arts yet to be
devised by our hands and our minds. Our holy grail is more tangible, but
no less demanding of human kindness, creativity and nobility in its
search.
What we need is a new knighthood to stand forth -- the knights of
the twenty first century. This is the new order that will teach us once
more the meaning of the motto left to us by the founders of our Republic
on the Great Seal of the United States: "Nevus ordo seclorum." -- "A New
Order of the Ages"
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