EXTREMES AND CEOP

Extremes …Background:

• A fundamental aspect of the water and energy cycle is the occurrence of extremes. 

Big Issues:

1. How can we improve our understanding and prediction of extremes? 2. To what extent will the types, distributions, and impacts of extremes

change in a world with an altered climate?   

We envision Extremes addressing both of these issues:

• It will address extremes within the present climate system • This foundation will allow us to contribute to assessments of their

future occurrence

Extremes and CEOP …

Overall objective …

• To advance our understanding of hydro-extremes including their occurrence, characteristics, evolution and inter-connections for prediction and for addressing societal concerns

The Focus of Extremes During CEOP

• Extremes of Interest

DroughtFloods and heavy precipitation

…

• And, in some instances

Inter-meshing of extremes

SIMPLE UPDATE

• Who is carrying out some type of extremes research?

• What aspect of extremes?

• What needs to be done?

• How we move forward?

• …

WIDE INTEREST

• RHPs or regional projects that are addressing extremes include:

• drought: CPPA, DRI, LPB, MDB ... 

• heavy precipitation/flooding:  CPPA, DRI, LPB, BALTEX, MAHASRI, NEESPI ...

MDB and Drought• Through Helen Cleugh …

• A substantial amount of research on drought in SE Australia as well as other regions

• Over SE Australia, the recent drought exhibited a spatial and temporal structure which varied in space and time:

- decline in late autumn and early winter further south and west

- is more late summer early autumn farther North and East.

• Forcing mechanisms are likely to differ from one region of SE Australia to another

• …

BALTEX and Extremes

• From Hans-Joerg Isemer and Ole Christiensen

• BACC Climate Change Assessment hasextreme events included

• Several critical parameters

Temperature, precipitation, wind …

TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION EVENTS

Others

• CPPA

• LPB

• MAHASRI

• AMMA

• …

DROUGHTS and CANADA

‘case study’ of an extreme event1999-2005

30+ investigators

The CanadianPrairies

Drought Occurrence – Southern Prairies (1915-2002)

SPI PDSI

DRI(Canadian Prairie drought)

500 km

2001/02

BIG ISSUESGiven the 1999-2005 drought, some key issues include:  1. What maintained it over multiple years?         2. What governed its actual structure?          3. Why did it end?

 And, what was the role of the cold season … a natural

Canadian focus       4. What did prediction systems 'miss‘ and why?

5. Given this progress, how can we better cope with drought?

LARGE SCALE ACTUAL PATTERNS

1999

2004

2002

Summer 500 mb

PRECIPITATION

DRI (flooding at the end of the drought)

St. Jean de Baptiste, ManitobaJuly 2005

SEASONAL PREDICTIONSSummer of 2005

PREDICTIONOBSERVATION

AboveNormal

BelowNormal

PARTNERS AFFECTED BY DROUGHT

Some of our current partners are:

• Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada• Alberta Agriculture, Food and Rural Development• Alberta Environment• Canadian Forestry Service• Environment Canada (several components)• Health Canada• Manitoba Hydro• Manitoba Water Stewardship• Natural Resources Canada• Saskatchewan Research Council• SaskWater• Saskatchewan Watershed Authority• … and others

EXTREMES IN CEOP

T

OTHER EXTREME FEATURES

WORKSHOP

Objective: To advance our extremes activity

Key issues will be:

• review the precise objectives of the Extremes activity • update the extremes work being carried out in CEOP,

GEWEX and (hopefully) WCRP• synthesize progress to better address overall objectives• chart next steps

Timing: week of May 19, 2008 (tentative)

Location: Vancouver

LINKAGES

• Within CEOPmany activities are within RHPs

• Within GEWEXcollaboration on data and models for extremes

• Within WCRPa key issue

• Beyond … GEO …

IN SUMMARY …

• Hydrometeorological extremes are of critical importance

• Within CEOP, we are addressing some of the key issues associated with these extremes

And … thank you for your attention