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Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season. Robert X. Black Rebecca Westby School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia DOE/BER Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program. Presentation Overview. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Extreme Temperature Regimes during the Cool Season
Robert X. BlackRebecca Westby
School of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesGeorgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia
DOE/BER Regional and Global
Climate Modeling Program
Presentation Overview
General project objectives & research approach
Preliminary statistical results for cold air outbreaks: Focus on Atlanta
Illustrative synoptic & dynamic analyses: Jan 2004 Case Study
Considerations of recent cold air outbreak behavior: Winters of 2009/2010 & 2010/2011
Summary & future research directions
Project Overview
General project objectives & research approach:
Quantify the modulation of extreme temperature regimes (ETRs) by low frequency modes (LFMs)
Assess the representation of ETRs and ETR-LFM linkages in global coupled climate models (CMIP5)
Assess likely future changes in regional ETR behavior and ETR-LFM linkages (CMIP5)
General Approach and Datasets
Identify extreme temperature regimes (ETRs) in terms of local anomalies in either temperature or wind chill index (e.g., Walsh et al 2001; Osczevski and Bluestein 2005)
Basic data: Daily averaged reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40 & NASA-GMAO MERRA)
E vent Date W ind-C hill R ank
Temperature R ank
D ifferenc e in R ank ing
15-F eb-79 1 1* 010-J an-68 2 2 018-F eb-58 3 7 429-F eb-80 4 4 07-J an-59 5 20 15
18-J an-94 6 8 223-Dec -89 7 3 -4 1-F eb-80 8 11* 3
25-Dec -83 9 13* 41-J an-63 10 16 66-J an-96 11 5 -6
10-J an-81 12 6* -6 18-J an-71 13 12 -1 7-F eb-95 14 28 14 16-J an-00 15 18* 310-Dec -77 16 19 3
Top 15 winter wind-chill events for Albany, NY (1948-2006) and relative ranking for temperature- only criterion. Asterisks denote events in which the peak wind-chill amplitude occurred on a slightly different day than peak temperature amplitude.
Interannual Variability in Cold Air Events in AtlantaRelationship with the Arctic Oscillation
Downward trend in cold air events until last 2-3 winters Greatest number of cold days occurred in 2009/2010 (!) Significant negative correlation with the AO (r = -0.55)
Cold front passes through Atlanta ~12Z January 5, 2004 Highs in the 70s Jan 5 -> Lows in the 10s on Jan 7
1/05/2004 1/07/2004
Cold Air Outbreak: 12Z Jan 5, 2004 (NOAA/HPC)
Cold Air Outbreak: 12Z Jan 5, 2004 (Winds/EPV)
1/05/2004 1/07/2004
p
Remote Influence of Local PV Anomalies (‘Charges’)
Poisson-like PV balance condition indicates nonlocal effects analogous to induction of electric field by localized charges
x,y
1q
2q
3q
Spheroids of constant Z’ associated with isolated q anomalies
[e.g., Hoskins et al. 1985]
4 q
Vertical extentrelated to L/N;Large scales & weak N favor a downwardinfluence
Piecewise PV Inversion: Quasi-Geostrophic Form
q( )Z } mq
( )mZ}( )nmZ
(
(
'( ') )
' )m m
m
Z qq ZZ Z
Cold Air Outbreak: Jan 5, 2004 (QGPV Anomalies)
Diagnose contributions of PV anomalies within different vertical layers to the northerly flow in lower troposphere
Anomalies defined as deviations from monthly mean flow Divide PV anomaly field into three parts:
1) Upper tropospheric PV (500-300 hPa)2) Lower tropospheric PV (600-975 hPa)3) Surface theta at lower boundary (975-1000 hPa)
QGPV Inversions: Invert Entire PV Anomaly Field
Generally excellent quantitative correspondence over most regions
Notable errors near base of trough where strong curvature exists
Actual wind is subgeostrophic due to locally large Rossby number
Supergeostrophic flow in ridge
300 hPa vector wind anomalies
QGPV Inversions: Invert Entire PV Anomaly Field
Generally excellent quantitative correspondence over most regions (including over midwest US)
Some errors near cold front
No differences where 925 hPa surface dips below ground
Proceed to piecewise PV inversion
925 hPa vector wind anomalies
QGPV Inversions: Invert PV “Pieces”
Upper tropospheric PV induces southwesterly flow over midwest
Lower tropospheric PV inducesnortheasterly flow over midwest
Strong cancellation among the contributions of interior PV
Surface theta induces northerlies
925 hPa vector wind anomalies
QGPV Inversions: Invert Surface PV “Pieces”
Isolate cold surface theta anomalies over the western US/Canada
Invert cold surface theta anomalies
Provides a large contribution to northerly flow over midwest US
Cold anomalies east of Rockies promote northerlies to the east
925 hPa vector wind anomalies
Average surface air temperature anomalies 12/15 – 01/14
1/07/2004
Winters of 2009/10 & 2010/11: Unusual Behavior!
AO index →(NOAA/CPC)
Composite T Anomalies →
(NOAA/ESRL)
Winters of 09/10 & 10/11: North Atlantic Jet Structure
Climo characterized by two jets: Subtropical jet & eddy-driven jet
North-South jet anomaly dipole found during 2009/10 with strong westerly anomalies near 30N
Net impact: Effective merger of the climatological jet features
Similar behavior during 2010/11
Zonal wind averaged from 300W-360W
(12/15 – 1/14)
2010/11: Nov 1 to Jan 202009/10: Nov 1 to Jan 20
300 hPa Zonal Wind Evolution over North Atlantic
Eddy driven jet strengthens during Fall and early winter Subtropical jet develops beginning in January Eddy driven jet abruptly collapses during Spring onset
Climo: July 1 to June 30 Climo: Nov 1 to Jan 20
Composite 500 hPa Geopotential Height Field
Total heights:Left: climo
Right: 2009/10(12/15 – 1/14)
Stationary eddies:
Left: climo Right: 2009/10(12/15 – 1/14)
Composite 500 hPa Geopotential Height Field
Total heights:Left: climo
Right: 2010/11(12/15 – 1/14)
Stationary eddies:
Left: climo Right: 2010/11(12/15 – 1/14)
Summary and Future Research Directions Cold Air Outbreaks are evidently alive and well
Cold Air Outbreaks strongly modulated by AO/NAO
January 2004 case study: Southward surge of cold air through the midwest is primarily effected by cold
surface theta anomalies positioned east of Rocky Mountains
Recent winter behavior: Possible alterations in the seasonal cycle of the North Atlantic jetstream?
Future work: More fully explore the low frequency modulation of ETRs in different geographical regions
Future work: Examine the behavior of ETRs and their low frequency modulation in coupled climate models
PV Balance Condition: Large-scale atmospheric disturbances are
governed by the linear balance condition:
Poisson-like => nonlocal response in Z’
22
2 2 2
1 cos 1' '( cos ) cos
'
g fq f Zf a a f p p
Z
‹
[e.g., Black 2002]
1' 'Z q ‹
Boundary Conditions Polar Continuity Longitudinally cyclic Z’ = 0 at low latitude boundary (100N) Upper and lower boundaries:
a) Boundary q’ not included:
b) If boundary q’ is included: 'R Cp
o
Z R pp gp p
' 0Zp
[Black 2002]
EAS 6502 - Quasi-Geostrophic Theory
Given a 3-D distribution of q’ and boundary conditions for ’, one can invert the QG balance to infer the 3-D ’ distribution. (From which the temperature and horizontal windfields can be deduced via hydrostatic & geostrophic balance, respectively)
Note: Laplacian-like operator localized q anomalies are associated with a anomaly distribution that may extend horizontally and vertically away into the far field (from q’).
Permits dynamic interaction of spatially separated q anomalies
Quasi-Geostrophic Potential Vorticity
2 0
0
1 ( )fqf p p
L