12-May-2011

1

Steel trade and policy

developments

DSTI/SU/SC(2011)3

70th Steel Committee Meeting

Paris

12-13 May 2011

Exports of steel

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

China

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Japan

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Russia

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Ukraine

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

2800

South Korea

• East Asia has enjoyed a very strong expansion in trade.

• Russia and Ukraine, suppliers mainly of semi-finished steel for markets in Europe and the Middle East, registered only small increases.

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2400

2600

European Union 27

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2

Exports of steel

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

Turkey

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

United States

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

Brazil

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

Chinese Taipei

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

South Korea

Imports of steel

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

European Union 27

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

United States

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

China

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

Turkey

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

Thailand

• EU, the United States and Korea posted very robust growth in imports.

• Chinese imports declined considerably.

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Imports of steel

100

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

Chinese Taipei

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

India

200

400

600

800

1000

Canada

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Mexico

Steel trade balances

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Jan

/09

Mar

/09

May

/09

Jul/

09

Sep

/09

No

v/0

9

Jan

/10

Mar

/10

May

/10

Jul/

10

Sep

/10

No

v/1

0

EU (external trade)

Exports

Imports

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan

/09

Mar

/09

May

/09

Jul/

09

Sep

/09

No

v/0

9

Jan

/10

Mar

/10

May

/10

Jul/

10

Sep

/10

No

v/1

0

NAFTA (external trade)

Exports

Imports

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Jan

/09

Mar

/09

May

/09

Jul/

09

Sep

/09

No

v/0

9

Jan

/10

Mar

/10

May

/10

Jul/

10

Sep

/10

No

v/1

0

CIS

Exports

Imports

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Jan

/09

Mar

/09

May

/09

Jul/

09

Sep

/09

No

v/0

9

Jan

/10

Mar

/10

May

/10

Jul/

10

Sep

/10

No

v/1

0

South America

Exports

Imports

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

Jan

/09

Mar

/09

May

/09

Jul/

09

Sep

/09

No

v/0

9

Jan

/10

Mar

/10

May

/10

Jul/

10

Sep

/10

No

v/1

0

Asia (excl. China)

Exports

Imports

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Jan

/09

Mar

/09

May

/09

Jul/

09

Sep

/09

No

v/0

9

Jan

/10

Mar

/10

May

/10

Jul/

10

Sep

/10

No

v/1

0

China

Exports

Imports

• NAFTA’s strong growth in imports have led to a growing trade deficit.

• China recorded a trade surplus of 22.4 million tonnes in 2010, however, still lower than the 44 million tonnes recorded in 2008.

• EU’s surplus narrowed in 2010, as imports gained some momentum in response to increasing demand to feed the gradual export-led economic recovery.

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Steel Antidumping/CVD initiations

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

401

99

0

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

Non OECD

OECD

Policy side: recent trade measures

• Import measures

– Brazil : Temporary tariff reduction on the ad-valorem import duty on product code 721090(limited to a quota of 800 tonnes) for reasons of shortage.

– Vietnam:The import licensing scheme was extended from the end of 2010 to the end of 2011.

• Antidumping cases

– Brazil started an investigation into the possible dumping of seamless pipes from China(December 2010).

– Russia initiated an antidumping investigation in against imports of pre-painted coil from China(February 2011).

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Share of steel product categories in

AD/CVD filings • Steel pipes and tubes have become increasingly

important in antidumping/CVD cases in recent years.

• This has occurred alongside strong growth in world exports of these products, particularly from Asia.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1991-95 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-10

Alloy/stainless (excl. pipes)

Pipes & tubes

Long products

Cold & other flats

Hot rolled flats

Semi-finished

Steel trade structures

• China may have experienced a significant shift in their export structure towards higher quality steel, as seen in a much higher percent change in its unit value over the past five years compared to other major exporters.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Percent change

(2010/2006)

Japan 458.6 460.9 628.6 582.3 619.7 35.1

China 303.3 338.9 579.4 572.1 557.4 83.8

EU 667.6 753.6 915.7 802.0 811.0 21.5

Russia 262.0 298.0 435.1 291.8 341.7 30.4

Ukraine 241.7 281.4 431.0 277.8 362.0 49.8

Korea 474.8 490.8 641.2 544.6 635.2 33.8

Turkey 262.6 306.4 481.1 328.9 402.0 53.0

United States 701.4 670.7 785.9 870.7 903.3 28.8

Chinese Taipei 508.8 545.6 677.0 545.6 707.2 39.0

Brazil 297.5 321.9 474.8 356.8 419.0 40.8

World total 437.8 478.1 643.0 562.1 613.3 40.1

Unit value of steel exports

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Unit value of narrow steel product exports

Japan China EU Russia Ukraine Korea Turkey

United

States

Chinese

TaipeiBrazil

INGOTS 689 3,561 817 592 2,507 652 2,042 951 566 1,031

SEMIS 341 382 488 290 307 362 344 562 456 319

BARS AND ROD IN COILS 698 429 535 297 331 658 364 675 960 431

DEFORMED REINFORCING BARS 360 479 360 327 329 366 357 446 377 394

HOT ROLLED BARS AND FLATS 724 456 880 385 508 699 457 809 642 673

COLD FINISHED BARS AND FLATS 2,265 1,415 1,676 549 1,300 1,252 509 1,578 1,358 1,476

HOT ROLLED LIGHT SECTIONS 667 472 687 496 377 469 394 554 569 435

HOT ROLLED HEAVY SECTIONS 448 395 502 377 364 428 401 529 432 412

RAILS AND ROLLED ACCESSORIES 621 509 582 334 531 617 937 618 625 1,175

HOT ROLLED WIDE STRIP 458 445 529 341 344 531 415 523 477 369

HOT ROLLED PLATES 566 440 801 371 400 532 493 716 921 439

HOT ROLLED SHEETS 387 508 654 346 347 535 452 917 515 407

CR PLATE/SHEET:COILS/LENGTHS 622 653 992 417 410 647 580 971 907 580

HOT ROLLED STRIP 1,810 482 806 411 400 1,458 627 655 575 524

COLD ROLLED STRIP 3,696 825 1,757 478 417 1,192 733 1,185 1,182 1,269

TINPLATE AND TFS 732 671 687 638 559 751 752 554 726 693

ZINC COATED SHEET AND STRIP 577 507 586 544 541 589 563 628 533 894

OTHER COATED SHEET AND STRIP 960 564 867 773 834 699 750 984 618 948

ELECTRICAL SHEET 1,080 713 848 808 921 893 1,618 1,340 582 1,005

ELECTRICAL STRIP 1,970 874 1,191 597 272 850 1,381 1,090 726 1,043

STEEL TUBES, SEAMLESS 1,671 789 1,720 673 781 1,980 1,099 2,214 1,185 1,551

STEEL TUBES, WELDED 794 587 1,129 631 586 775 568 1,260 1,198 1,118

STEEL TUBE FITTINGS 9,240 1,545 5,161 4,354 3,592 3,095 2,912 8,627 3,552 34,825

WIRE 2,236 696 1,184 506 474 1,363 584 1,239 1,148 814

FORGED BARS 2,933 909 1,639 901 1,159 1,106 1,085 3,485 2,322 1,597

Are countries with lower unit values net

exporters of the product category?

(e.g. semi-finished steel)

– Russia and Ukraine have the lowest unit values , and these countries are large net exporters.

(e.g. electrical steel )

– Japan has relatively high unit values, yet it is a major net exporter.

Product innovation and how well the product is adapted to special needs may also be important factors that can influence demand.

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Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index

• What is Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index?

– An RCA index measures a given economy’s export share of a commodity compared with the world export share of that same commodity.

– If the RCA is greater than unity, the country is said to have a comparative advantage, and therefore specialisation, in the product.

RCA indices for the 10 largest steel exporters

2010Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-062010

Change

2010-06

INGOTS 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 2.7 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.0 0.0

SEMIS 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.4 0.0 3.3 0.6 2.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.7 1.0

BARS AND ROD IN COILS 0.6 0.1 0.9 -0.8 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.9 -0.3

DEFORMED REINFORCING BARS 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -1.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.2 1.7 0.0 0.5 0.3 6.7 -4.7 0.8 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.7 -0.2

HOT ROLLED BARS AND FLATS 0.7 0.1 1.6 0.8 0.8 -0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.2 1.4 -0.2 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.0

COLD FINISHED BARS AND FLATS 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.1 0.5 1.3 -0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.3 -0.1 1.1 0.3 0.5 0.2

HOT ROLLED LIGHT SECTIONS 0.2 -0.2 0.8 -0.2 1.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 1.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 4.6 1.5 2.1 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.5

HOT ROLLED HEAVY SECTIONS 0.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 2.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.3 1.5 -0.3 1.0 0.7 1.6 -0.3 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.3

RAILS AND ROLLED ACCESSORIES 1.4 -0.1 0.9 0.3 3.6 0.4 1.2 -0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.5 -1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HOT ROLLED WIDE STRIP 1.4 0.0 1.1 0.3 0.7 -0.2 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.0 1.2 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.3 0.1 0.6 -0.1

HOT ROLLED PLATES 1.2 0.1 1.2 0.2 1.5 0.0 0.3 -0.1 1.2 -0.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.9 0.2

HOT ROLLED SHEETS 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 1.4 0.3 2.7 -0.3 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.1 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3

CR PLATE/SHEET:COILS/LENGTHS 1.3 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.6 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.8 -0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.9 0.0 2.5 -0.7 0.6 -0.3

HOT ROLLED STRIP 0.1 -0.1 0.9 -0.3 2.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 3.0 -0.6 1.1 0.6 0.2 -0.1

COLD ROLLED STRIP 0.3 -0.1 0.6 -0.5 2.0 0.6 0.6 -0.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.6 0.0 1.7 0.3 0.2 -0.1

TINPLATE AND TFS 1.0 -0.1 0.9 0.7 2.6 -0.9 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 -1.3 0.2 0.1 1.1 -0.3 1.0 0.1 0.9 -0.2

ZINC COATED SHEET AND STRIP 1.3 -0.3 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.2 0.2 0.0 1.3 -0.1 1.5 -0.2 0.2 -0.2

OTHER COATED SHEET AND STRIP 0.3 -0.2 2.4 2.0 0.7 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 -1.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 -0.3 2.2 -0.7 0.0 -0.2

ELECTRICAL SHEET 2.0 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 1.9 0.9 1.1 -0.6 0.0 n.a. 2.0 -0.3 0.0 n.a. 1.8 0.2 4.0 0.4 0.1 0.0

ELECTRICAL STRIP 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.1 2.4 -0.2 2.3 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 -0.8 1.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1

STEEL TUBES, SEAMLESS 0.7 -0.4 2.3 1.1 1.7 -0.8 0.3 -0.3 0.7 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 -0.2

STEEL TUBES, WELDED 0.5 -0.3 1.0 0.0 1.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 1.2 0.1 1.6 0.0 1.4 -0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.1

STEEL TUBE FITTINGS 0.1 -0.1 3.0 0.8 1.6 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 -0.4 0.2 0.1 1.5 -0.4 0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.0

WIRE 0.3 0.0 1.7 0.7 1.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.9 -0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 -0.2 0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.0

FORGED BARS 0.2 -0.2 1.8 0.6 3.9 1.1 0.2 -1.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0

Turkey United States Chinese Taipei BrazilJapan China EU Russia Ukraine Korea

12-May-2011

8

RCA indices by product

• Semi-finished products

– Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine all have high RCA values

– China’s specialisation appears to have declined significantly.

• Long steel products

– The EU, Turkey, and the United States seem to be strong in products like bars and sections.

– Turkey’s specialisation may change in the future as capacity for flat steelmaking increases.

RCA indices by product(cont’d)

• Flat steel products

– The EU, Japan, Korea and Chinese Taipei are relatively strong exporters.

– China’s specialisation appears to have declined significantly.

• Tubes

– The EU and the United States have traditionally been the biggest players, but specialisation in tubular products appears to have declined in these economies.

– China’s importance has risen very rapidly in recent years.