Exporting and Importing Graduates

by

Irene MoscaRobert E. Wright

Department of EconomicsUniversity of Strathclyde

March 12, 2010

“ESRC Festival of Social Science”, Department of Innovation and Skills, Sheffield

Introduction

One of our objectives is to quantify the nature of graduate labour market flows between the countries and regions of the United Kingdom

Why?

•Regional focus: England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

•Export and import of graduates equally interesting as the export and import of goods and services

•Such information is being fed into the CGE analysis

Slide 2/23

Policy Relevance: Scotland

• Concern with depopulation of rural and remote regions of Scotland

• Migration flows of students and graduates thought to “reinforce” migration flows of general population (north and west to the east)

• “Belief” that building HEIs in rural and remote regions will help reverse these trends

• Costs versus benefits of “free higher education”

• “Demographic decline”

• Who “wins” from regional “trade” in graduates.

• Over-education, under-employment, skills-mismatch issues

Slide 3/23

ESRC Grant: “Higher Education, Over-education and Migration”,

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Figure 1Net-migration, Scotland, 1951-2007

Year

Num

ber o

f peo

ple

Source: General Register Office for Scotland

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

Figure 2Number of Higher Education Students,

Scotland, 1994/95-2007/08

Higher Education Institutions only All institutions

Year

Num

ber

of s

tude

nts

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency/ Scottish Government

Table 1Percentage Growth Rates of Various Higher Education Student Groups,

1994/95-2007/08

Type of Student: Scotland UK

Full-time 26.2 37.5

Part-time 99.6 68.3

Under-graduates 38.1 46.5

Post-graduates 51.5 49.4

Foreign 100.4 108.8

Science 55.7 66.4

Non-science 30.3 36.2

All students 41.2 47.1

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

Table 2Place of Domicile of Students at British and Scottish and UK Higher Education Institutes,

2007/08

UK Scotland

Place of domicile: Numbers % Numbers %

Scotland 175,110 7.6 148,460 70.6

England 1,615,340 70.0 21,755 10.4

Northern Ireland 62,290 2.7 4,800 2.3

Wales 101,970 4.4 675 0.3

Foreign 341,790 14.8 33,895 16.1

UK unknown 9,590 0.4 605 0.3

All 2,306,090 100.0 210,190 100.0

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 200715

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Figure 3Higher Education Age Participation Index

Scotland, 1983/84 to 2006/7

Both Male

Female 50 per cent

Year

Perc

enta

ge

Source: Scottish Government

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 200825

27

29

31

33

35

37

39

41

43

45

Figure 4 Higher Education Students per 1,000 Population

Scotland and UK, 1994/95-2007/08

Scotland UK

Year

Per

1,0

00 p

opul

atio

n

Source: Higher Education Statistical Agency

Figure 5 Number of 17 Year Olds

Scotland, 1981-2044(GAD Projections)

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Year

Nu

mb

er

of

peo

ple

Principal projection Zero net-migration projection

Figure 6Under-employment Rates

First-degree Graduates and Post-graduatesA Scottish University, 1998-2005

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Perc

enta

ge

First-degree graduates Post-graduates

Higher Education Statistical Agency (HESA) is the official agency for the collection, analysis and dissemination of quantitative information about higher education in the UK.

Match data from three datasets:

(1) Students in Higher Education Institutions

(2) Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education Institutions

• 13 cohorts of graduates: 1994/95 to 2006/2007

(3) Destinations of Leavers From Higher Education Longitudinal Survey

• 1 cohort of graduates: 2002/03

Data

Slide 13/23

The HESA data provide four key postal addresses: (1) Place of domicile(2) Place of study(3) Place of employment: 6 months after graduation (4) Place of employment: 36 months later

This allows us to identify different migration types:

“movers versus stayers”

Table 3Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix

Place of Study

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Domicile

England 100%

Scotland 100%

Wales 100%

NI 100%

Table 4Place of Study/Place of Employment-Study Six Months Matrix

Place of Employment Six months

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Study

England 100%

Scotland 100%

Wales 100%

NI 100%

Table 5Place of Domicile/Place of Study Matrix

2002/03-2006/07 Cohorts

Place of Study

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Domicile

England 95.8% 1.3% 2.8% 0.1%

Scotland 8.1% 91.5% 0.3% 0.1%

Wales 32.1% 0.6% 67.2% 0.1%

NI 15.7% 8.5% 0.7% 75.1%

Table 6Place of Study/Place of Employment-Study Six Months Matrix

2002/03-2006/07 Cohorts

Place of Employment/Study Six months

England Scotland Wales NI

Placeof Study

England 97.8% 0.7% 1.2% 0.3%

Scotland 12.3% 86.2% 0.3% 1.2%

Wales 33.9% 0.6% 65.2% 0.3%

NI 6.0% 1.2% 0.2% 92.5%

England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland

-25,000

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-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Figure 7Who Wins from the Trade in Graduates?

2002/3-2006/07

What are the determinants of graduate migration flows?

• Fit logit regression models where the probability of migrating is related to observable

characteristics

• Analysis at this stage mainly focuses on Scotland

• Today concerned mainly with Scottish-domiciled students studying in Scotland.

• Examine migration after graduation to other countries of the UK

• “Under-graduates graduates” and “post-graduate graduates” considered separately

• Fit similar models for England, Northern Ireland and Wales for comparative purposes

Variables Considered

1) Sex

2) Age at graduation

3) Ethnic group (White or not)

4) Disability (Disabled or not)

5) Studied full or part-time

6) Class of qualification 1st 2-1

2-2 3rd, Pass, Ordinary, etc

5) Subject area 1. Arts and Humanities 2. Social Science 3. Science 4. Social Science-led 5. Science-led 6. Multi-disciplinary

6) Type of HEI 1. College 2. Post-1992 university 3. Non-Russell group pre-1992 university 4. Russell Group university 7) Region of domicile 8) “ HEI mover” (i.e. region of domicile is not region of HEI attended)

FINDINGS

Scottish-domiciled “under-graduates graduates”

Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:

• Male• Full-time• “Non-white” ethnic background• Graduated at age 22-23 (inverted U-shape)• Science (or Science-led) qualification or “multi-disciplinary” qualification• 1st Class result (clear gradient)• Russell Group university (New Universities/Colleges much lower)• Moved to attend HEI• Regional effect (higher for Strathclyde region)• Decline between 2002-2006

Scottish-domiciled “post-graduate graduates”

Probability of migrating to England or Wales or Northern Ireland after graduation is higher for:

• Male• Full-time• Non-white ethnic background• Disabled• Non-white ethnic background• Graduated at age 25-26-27 (inverted U-shape)• Science (or Science-led) or “multi-disciplinary” qualification• Russell Group university and Colleges (New Universities much lower)• Moved to go to HEI• Regional effects of domicile less pronounced• Little change in 2002-2006

How big are these effects?

STEP (1): Create an hypothetical under-graduate graduate with the “average” characteristics of Scottish graduates and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating. GRADUATE “A”

STEP (2) Create another hypothetical under-graduate graduate with the following characteristics:

• Male• Full-time• Not disabled• White ethnic background• Graduated at age 22 • Science qualification• 1st Class result• Russell Group university• Moved to study

and use the logit model estimates to “predict” the probability of migrating . GRADUATE “B”

STEP (3) Compare the difference in the predicted probabilities

Predicted Probability of Migrating

Graduate A Graduate B

Scotland 6.0% 24.1%

Predicted Probability of Migrating

Graduate A Graduate B

Scotland 6.0% 24.1%

England 0.9% 2.2%

Northern Ireland 6.2% 11.1%

Wales 8.7% 33.9%

Relationship between migration and getting a “graduate job”

Elias, P. and Purcell, K. (2004) SOC (HE): A Classification of Occupations for Studying the Graduate Labour Market, ESRU Research paper No. 6., University of Warwick

SOC2000:

1) Traditional graduate: the established professions, for which, historically, the normal route has been via an undergraduate degree programme( e.g. solicitors and doctors)

2) Modern graduate: the newer professions, particularly in management, IT and creative vocational areas, which graduates have been entering since

educational expansion in the 1960s (e.g. computer programmers and journalists).

3) New graduate: areas of employment, many in new or expanding occupations, where the route into the professional area has recently changed such that it is now via an undergraduate degree programme (e.g. physiotherapists and sale managers).

4) Niche graduate: occupations where the majority of incumbents are not graduates, but within which there are stable or growing specialist niches which require higher education skills and knowledge (e.g. nurses and hotel managers)

5) Non graduate: occupations for which a graduate level education is inappropriate (e.g. school secretaries and bar staff)

Table 7Percentage Employed

2002/3 - 2006/07 Cohorts

t Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales

6 months 78.0% 77.1% 78.5% 78.1%

In graduate job (of those in employment)

75.0% 72.8% 74.5% 70.5%

In graduate job (mover) 84.4% 77.5% 83.1% 80.6%

In graduate job (stayer) 74.2% 72.6% 73.8% 69.2%

2002-2003 Cohort of graduates

Table 8Percentage Employed

2002/3 Cohort

t Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales

(a) 6 months 76.2% 76.1% 75.4% 79.6%

(b) 36 months 90.3% 89.4% 89.9% 90.6%

Table 9Percentage Employed in Graduate Jobs

2002/03 Cohort

Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales

(a) 6 months 69.5% 69.4% 73.2% 72.4%

(b) 36 months 81.9% 80.6% 79.9% 78.6%

Table 10Percentage Employed in Graduate Jobs –

Undergraduate and Postgraduate Graduates2002/3 Cohort

t: 6 months 36 months

Undergrad Postgrad Undergrad Postgrad

Scotland 62.8% 90.0% 79.2% 91.3%

England 61.1% 91.9% 76.7% 93.0%

Northern Ireland 66.4% 87.0% 75.5% 90.5%

Wales 66.0% 87.1% 74.6% 88.7%

Table 11Percentage Employed in Graduate Jobs

Movers versus Stayers2002/3 Cohort

t 6 months 36 months

Mover/Stayer Mover Stayer Mover Stayer

Scotland 84.3% 68.3% 85.7% 81.6%

England 78.0% 69.1% 75.9% 80.6%

Northern Ireland 80.5% 72.7% 87.1% 78.5%

Wales 83.3% 71.5% 81.7% 78.9%

Table 12Percentage Employed in Non-graduate Job after 6 Months

Employed in Graduate Job after 36 months

Scotland England Northern Ireland Wales

Mover 70.1% 75.7% 76.7% 44.2%

Stayer 59.7% 61.1% 50.8% 56.7%

Conclusions?