EXPORT WEEK 2015TRADE STATISTICS

An overview of international trade statistics: local, regional and international

Trading with KZN

What’s international trade

International trade means that you can wear Italian

shoes and American jeans while eating Chinese food,

watching a British documentary, with a French desert chilling in the fridge

UCT GetSmarter

If you walk into a supermarket and are able

to buy South American bananas, Brazilian coffee

and a bottle of South African wine, you are

experiencing the effects of international trade

Investopedia

Tropical HeatNo need to hop on a boat to bring home some island style – tropical prints are everywhere this season

FairLady Oct 2015

Why trade?

More balanced production [or provision] of seasonal goods [and services]

Cost reduction (lower unit costs due to scale economies)

Extended product lifecycle (for different markets with different levels of development and discernment)

Improved product quality & creativity (to conform with foreign conditions)

Hedging of risk (directing supply to fast-growth markets)

Trade stats: Global trade (X)Africa (total & share of global)SA (total and % of global)

Most traded commodities: (Global, Africa & South Africa)

Largest trade markets: (global, SA’s [X & M], KZN’s [X & M])

SA and KZN’s trade balance (or net exports)

Lessons

As a small open economy, South Africa participates quite meaningfully in international trading platforms

Inventions and innovations in information and communications technologies (ICT) have made it possible for countries such as South Africa to keep transparent records of their international trade activities

$18, 682,444,395,000

World exports since 2001 (US$ tr)

Source: WTO/UNCTAD (2015), TradeMap

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20146,000,000,000,000.0

8,000,000,000,000.0

10,000,000,000,000.0

12,000,000,000,000.0

14,000,000,000,000.0

16,000,000,000,000.0

18,000,000,000,000.0

20,000,000,000,000.0

6,321,096,021,000.06,583,352,918,000.0

7,678,635,458,000.0

9,387,199,147,000.0

10,612,120,213,000.0

12,251,407,116,000.0

14,094,884,587,000.0

16,344,751,209,000.0

12,587,676,140,000.0

15,242,351,288,000.0

18,229,455,659,000.018,227,130,331,000.018,584,548,881,000.018,740,071,180,000.0

Europe and Asia backbone of world trade

Source: WTO (2014), WTS Report

0 10 20 30 400

10

20

30

40

North America (13.2, 16.8)

S&C America (4.0, 4.3)

Europe (36.3, 36.4)

Africa (3.3, 3.4)

Asia (31.5, 29.6)

Exports

Impo

rts

Europe, Asia and North America still the backbone of world trade

Source: WTO (2014), World Trade Statistics Report

Destination

North America

South & Central America Europe CIS Africa Middle East Asia World

Origin

World 16.8 4.3 36.4 3.1 3.4 4.2 29.6 100.0

North America 6.5 1.2 2.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.7 13.2

South & Central America 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.0

Europe 2.8 0.7 24.9 1.4 1.2 1.2 3.6 36.3

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 0.2 0.1 2.2 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.8 4.3

Africa 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.9 3.3

Middle East 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.8 7.4

Asia 5.5 1.0 4.7 0.7 1.0 1.5 16.8 31.5

World’s leading export markets, 2014 (US$ bn)

United Kingdom

Hong Kong, China

Italy

France

Korea, Republic of

Netherlands

Japan

Germany

United States of America

China

0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0

511.1

524.1

528.4

566.7

573.1

574.5

683.8

1,511.1

1,619.7

2,342.3

Source: WTO/UNCTAD - TradeMap (2015)

World, Africa & SA top 10 export products

World$18, 682,444,395,000

Africa

$542,995,368,000 (3%)

South Africa

$90,612,104,000 (0.5%)

2014 2014 2014

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products (Saudi Arabia, Russian Fed, USA)

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products (#6) (Nigeria, Angola, Algeria)

Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins

Electrical, electronic equipment (China, Hong Kong, USA)

Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins(South Africa, Botswana, Ghana)

Ores, slag and ash

Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers(China, Germany, USA)

Ores, slag and ash (South Africa, DRC, Sierra Leone)

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products

Vehicles other than railway, tramway (Germany, Japan, USA)

Electrical, electronic equipment (#3)(Tunisia, Morocco, South Africa)

Vehicles other than railway, tramway

Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins (#12) (Switzerland, Hong Kong, USA)

Vehicles other than railway, tramway (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia)

Iron and steel

Plastics and articles thereof (China, USA, Germany)

Copper and articles thereof (#3)(Zambia, DRC, South Africa)

Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers

Optical, photo, technical, medical, etc apparatus (USA, China, Germany)

Cocoa and cocoa preparations (#7)(Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria)

Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons

Pharmaceutical products (Germany, Switzerland, Belgium)

Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers(South Africa, Tunisia, Morocco)

Electrical, electronic equipment

Organic chemicals (China, USA, Belgium)

Iron and steel(South Africa, Egypt, Zimbabwe)

Aluminium and articles thereof (91.3%)

Iron and steel (#20) (China, Japan, Germany)

Edible fruit, nuts, peel of citrus fruit, melons (South Africa, Egypt, Cote d’Ivoire)

Plastics & articles thereofSource: WTO/UNCTAD - TradeMap (2015)

South Africa’s share of world exports (%), 2005—2014

Source: WTO/UNCTAD - TradeMap (2015)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.5 0.5

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

For every $100 traded in the

world, 50c came from SA

South Africa’s top destination and source markets, 2014

Source: Quantec (2015)

47.5

China

United States

Japan

Botswana

Namibia

Germany

India

United Kingdom

Netherlands

Mozambique

Other

39.0084734811423

China

Germany

Saudi Arabia

United States

Nigeria

India

Japan

United Kingdom

Italy

Thailand

Other

South Africa’s top export & import products, 2014

Source: Quantec (2015)

Pearls and precious or semi-precious stones

Ores, slag and ash

Mineral fuels and m

ineral oils

Vehicles and accessories

Iron and steel

Nuclear reactors, machinery and m

echanical appliances

Fruit and nuts

Electrical machinery and equipm

ent

Aluminium

and articles thereof

Plastics and articles thereof

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1815.8

13.3

10.69.8

7.86.7

3.22.4 2.1 1.8

Mineral fuels and mineral oils

Nuclear reactors, machinery and mechanical appliances

Electrical machinery and equipment

Vehicles and accessories

Original equipment components

Plastics and articles thereof

Photographic, cinematographic, and medical instruments

Pharmaceutical products

Miscellaneous chemical products

Organic chemical compounds

0 5 10 15 20 25

23.3

13.3

9.7

8.2

6.5

2.6

2.3

2.1

1.7

1.6

RSA trade by province (X & M) (%), avg 2010—2014

Gauteng; 70.7

KwaZulu-Natal; 10.0

Western Cape; 8.5

Eastern Cape; 4.0

Other; 6.8

Gauteng; 62.7Western Cape; 20.2

KwaZulu-Na-tal; 10.9

Eastern Cape; 4.6 Other; 1.6

KZN export & import markets, 2014

Source: Quantec (2015)

52.917903066271

United States

Namibia

Japan

United Kingdom

China

Botswana

Netherlands

Zambia

Mozambique

Nigeria

Other

32.5166444740346

China

Japan

Germany

Thailand

Australia

India

United States

Indonesia

United Kingdom

Argentina

Other

KZN export & import products, 2014

Source: Quantec (2015)

Vehicles and accessories

Aluminium and articles thereof

Iron and steel

Ores, slag and ash

Nuclear reactors, machinery and mechanical appliances

Electrical machinery and equipment

Sugars and sugar confectionery

Paper and paperboard

Miscellaneous chemical products

Mineral fuels and mineral oils

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

18.3

16.5

12.6

11.9

4.0

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.0

2.0

Orig

inal

equ

ipm

ent c

ompo

nent

s

Nuc

lear

reac

tors

, mac

hine

ry a

nd m

echa

nica

l app

lianc

es

Veh

icles

and

acc

esso

ries

Inor

gani

c che

mica

l com

poun

ds

Ani

mal

and

veg

etab

le fa

ts

Pla

stics

and

arti

cles t

here

of

Ele

ctric

al m

achi

nery

and

equ

ipm

ent

Misc

ella

neou

s che

mica

l pro

duct

s

Iron

and

stee

l

Res

idue

s and

was

te fr

om th

e fo

od in

dust

ries

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1816.1

8.5 8.1

5.74.6 4.3 3.9 3.3 2.9 2.7

RSA & KZN export & import values, 2005—2014

Source: Quantec (2015)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 200,000,000,000

300,000,000,000

400,000,000,000

500,000,000,000

600,000,000,000

700,000,000,000

800,000,000,000

900,000,000,000

1,000,000,000,000

1,100,000,000,000

1,200,000,000,000

Exports Import value

Only in 2/10 yrs has SA X been >

M

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20,000,000,000

30,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

50,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

70,000,000,000

80,000,000,000

90,000,000,000

100,000,000,000

110,000,000,000

120,000,000,000

Export value Import value

KZN’s M has consistently > X

RSA & KZN trade balance, 2005—2014

Source: Quantec (2015)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-140,000,000,000

-120,000,000,000

-100,000,000,000

-80,000,000,000

-60,000,000,000

-40,000,000,000

-20,000,000,000

-

20,000,000,000

40,000,000,000

60,000,000,000

-30,335,424,112

-81,467,631,148 -88,121,977,934 -91,075,221,980

-34,714,509,647

48,899,514,362

32,890,165,690

-52,536,280,009

-91,032,109,684

-120,407,462,280

-6,1

53,2

23,6

62

-6,5

96,2

74,1

25

-10,

308,

221,

898

-7,5

49,0

80,0

76

-3,4

63,0

87,8

71

-6,3

93,9

89,4

03

-10,

507,

277,

384

-13,

612,

931,

695

-19,

273,

416,

159

-1,4

37,0

44,8

77

RSA KZN

LessonsWorld trade [exports] have grown tremendously in the past decade

Africa’s and South Africa’s contribution to world exports have been quite rigid (3.5% and 5% respectively)

KZN’s share of SA’s exports around 10% (i.e 5c of the 50c that SA contributes to world exports

South Africa has recorded a trade deficit 80% of the time between 2005 and 2014

KZN’s deficit (M larger than X) has been chronic

While there is no tested link between trade balance and unemployment rates in the country, there is a wide belief that excessive imports have eroded domestic jobs

Jobs lost, particularly in manufacturing due to large imports of finished goods, have not been sufficiently replaced by growth in other sectors

Lessons

There is strong drive towards industrialisation and value addition to the country’s exports of natural resources

Industrial Policy Action Plan – IPAPKZN Industrial Economic Hubs – IEHsKZN Industrial Development Strategy – IDS Special Economic Zones and Industrial Development Zones (SEZs & IDZs)

South Africa is open to trade, but there is a need to address deficiencies such as the unemployment rate – widely believed to be structural in nature

Growth in trade should show meaningful impact on job creation

Export development high on the agenda, to support export promotion & job creation

DTI & TIKZN services available to assist accelerated export growth