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EXPLORING SPATIAL CORRELATION IN RIVERS. by Joshua French. Introduction. A city is required to extends its sewage pipelines farther in its bay to meet EPA requirements. How far should the pipelines be extended? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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EXPLORING SPATIAL CORRELATION IN RIVERS
by Joshua French
Introduction
A city is required to extends its sewage pipelines farther in its bay to meet EPA requirements.
How far should the pipelines be extended?
The city doesn’t want to spend any more money than it needs to extend the pipelines. It needs to find a way to make predictions for the waste levels at different sites in the bay.
Usually we might try to interpolate the data using a linear model. Usually we assume observations are independent.
For spatial data however, we intuitively know that response values for points close together should be more similar than points separated by a great distance.
We can use the correlation between sampling sites to make better predictions with our model.
The Road Ahead
- Methods- Introduction to the Variogram- Exploratory Analysis- Sample Variogram- Modeling the Variogram
- Analysis- 3 types of results
- Conclusions- Future Work
Introduction to the Variogram
Spatial data is often viewed as a stochastic process.
For each point x, a specific property Z(x) is viewed as a random variable with mean µ, variance σ2, higher-order moments, and a cumulative distribution function.
Each individual Z(xi) is assumed to have its own distribution, and the set {Z(x1),Z(x2),…} is a stochastic process.
The data values in a given data set are simply a realization of the stochastic process.
For a spatial process, second-order stationarity is often assumed.
Second-order stationarity implies that the mean is the same everywhere: i.e. E[Z(xj)]=µ for all points xj.
It also implies that Cov(Z(xj),Z(xk)) becomes a function of the distance xj to xk.
Thus,
Cov(Z(xj),Z(xk)) = Cov(Z(x),Z(x+h))
= Cov(h)
where h measures the distance between two points.
Looking at the variance of differencesVar[Z(x)-Z(x+h)] =E[ (Z(x)-Z(x+h))2 ]
= 2 γ(h)
Assuming second-order stationarity, γ(h)=Cov(0)-Cov(h).
γ(h) is known as the semi-variogram.
The plot of γ(h) on h is known as the variogram.
Things to know about variograms:
1. γ(h)= γ(-h). Because it is an even function, usually only positive lag distances are shown.
2. Nugget effect - by definition, γ(0)= 0. In practice however, sample variograms often have a positive value at lag 0. This is called the “nugget effect”.
3. Tend to increase monotonically
4. Sill – the maximum variance of the variogram
5. Range – the lag distance at which the sill is reached. Observations are not correlated past this distance.
The following figure shows these features
Variogram Example
Lag Distance
Var
ianc
e
0 1 2 3 4 5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
sill
nugget
range
Exploratory Analysis
The data studied is the longitudinal profile of the Ohio River.
Instead of worrying about the river network with streams, tributaries, and other factors, we simply look at the Ohio River as a one-dimensional object.
The Ohio River
Longitudinal Profile of the Ohio River Sampling Sites
Longitude (NAD27)
La
titu
de
(N
AD
27
)
-88 -86 -84 -82 -80
37
38
39
40
Pittsburgh, PA
Cairo, IL
Cincinnati, OH
Louisville, KY
Before we model variograms, we should explore the data.
We need to make sure that the data analyzed satisfies second-order stationarity
If there is an obvious trend in the data, we should remove it and analyze the residuals.
If the variance increases or decreases with lag distance, then we should transform the variable to correct this.
It is fairly easy to check for stationarity of this data set using a scatter plot.
RMI
Squ
are
Roo
t of P
erce
nt In
vert
ivor
e
0 200 400 600 800 1000
02
46
810
If the data contains outliers, we should do analysis both with and without outliers present.
If G1>1, then we should transform the data to approximate normality if possible.
3.3 The Sample Variogram
One of the previous definitions of semivariance is:
The logical estimator is:
where N(h) is the number of pairs of observations associated with that lag.
].) )Z()Z( ( [ E2
1)γ( 2hxxh
N(h)
1j
2jj ] )z(x)z(x [
)2N(
1)(γ h
hhˆ
Sample Variogram Example
Lag Distance
Va
ria
nce
0 20 40 60 80
20
00
04
00
00
60
00
08
00
00
10
00
00
Modeling the Variogram
Our goal is to estimate the true variogram of the data.
There were four variogram models used to model the sample variogram: the spherical, Gaussian, exponential, and Matern models.
Variogram Models
Lag Distance
Va
ria
nce
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
ExponentialSphericalGaussianMatern
Analysis
The data analyzed is a set of particle size and biological variables for the Ohio River.
The data was collected by “The Ohio River Valley Sanitation Commission. This is better known as ORSANCO.
There were between 190 and 235 unique sampling sites, depending on the variable.
ORSANCO data collection
The results of the analysis fell into three main groups:
- Able to fit the sample variogram well
- Not able to fit the sample variogram well
- Analysis not reasonable
Good Results: Number of Individuals at a site
After correcting for skewness by doing a log transformation, there are a number of outliers. We analyze the data both with and without the outliers.
log(Num Individuals) Sample Variogramwith outliers
Lag Distance (Mi)
Va
ria
nce
0 50 100 150 200 250
0.3
00
.35
0.4
00
.45
0.5
00
.55
log(Num Individuals) Sample Variogramwithout outliers
Lag Distance (Mi)
Va
ria
nce
0 50 100 150 200 250
0.2
00
.25
0.3
0
We were not able to model the sample variogram perfectly, but we were able to detect some amount of spatial correlation in the data, especially when the outliers were removed.
We are able to obtain reasonable estimates of the nugget, sill, and variance.
Poor Results: Percent Sand
After doing exploratory spatial analysis and removing a trend, we fit the sample variogram of the percent sand residuals.
Sample Variogram of percent sand residuals
Lag Distance (Mi)
Va
ria
nce
0 50 100 150 200 250
40
04
50
50
05
50
60
06
50
70
0
The sample variogram does not really increase monotonically with distance.
Our variogram models cannot fit this very well.
Though we can obtain estimates of the nugget, sill, and range, the estimates cannot be trusted.
No results: Percent Hardpan
This variable was so badly skewed that analysis was not reasonable.
The skewness coefficient is 12.38. This is extremely high.
QQplot of Percent Hardpan
Quantiles of Standard Normal
Pe
rce
nt
Ha
rd P
an
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
05
01
00
15
02
00
25
0
Scatter plot of Percent Hardpan
RMI
Pe
rce
nt
Ha
rd P
an
0 200 400 600 800 1000
05
01
00
15
02
00
25
0
The data is nearly all zeros!
There is also an erroneous data value. A percentage cannot be greater than 100%.
Data analysis does not seem reasonable. Our data does not meet the conditions necessary to use the spatial methods discussed.
Conclusions
Able to fit sample variogram reasonably well
– percent gravel, number of individuals, number of species
Not able to fit sample variogram well
– percent sand, percent detritivore, percent simple lithophilic individuals, percent invertivore
No results – remaining variables
Summary of ResultsResponse Transformation Trend Removed Model Nugget Sill Range
Percent Gravel Exponential 286.09 335.53 72.9 milesPercent Sand 38.1082+.0330x Gaussian 520.88 658.32 71.67 miles
Percent CobblePercent Hardpan
Percent FinesPercent Boulder
Number of Individuals Natural Log Gaussian 0.29 0.39 44.19 milesNumber of Individuals Natural Log (no outliers) Exponential 0.2 0.27 37.69 miles
Number of Native Species 17.7849-.0042x Gaussian 10.1 11.87 39.93 milesPercent Tolerant Individuals
Percent Lithophilic Individuals Square Root 15.5364-.0023x Matern 0.92 2.76 44.02 milesPercent Nonnative Individuals
Percent Detritivore Square Root Exponential 1.09 1.57 24.08 milesPercent Detritivore Square Root (no outliers) Exponential 0.94 1.4 19.17 milesPercent Invertivore Square Root 6.5207-.0039x Exponential 1.4 2.97 13.43 milesPercent Piscivore
Future Work
Things to consider in future analysis:
- The water flows in only one-direction. A point downstream cannot affect a point upstream
- Natural features such as tributaries may impact spatial correlation
- Manmade features such as dams may impact spatial correlation
Concluding Thought
Before you criticize someone, you should walk a mile in their shoes. That way, when you criticize them, you’re a mile away and you have their shoes.
- Jack Handey