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SONORANINSTITUTE.ORG
Exploratory Scenario PlanningOverview and Process Exercise
Harold Thomas, Program Manager
Sonoran Institute
Brandon Ruiz, Program Associate
Sonoran Institute
Jeremy Stapleton, Program Director
Sonoran Institute
Jim Holway, Director
Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy
Mission
to help people and communities achieve
harmony between the built environment
and the natural world.
Nexus of community, commerce, and conservation
Promote Civil dialogue and collaboration
Sonoran Institute
Resilient Communities Starter Kit
• Adapting to Climate Change
Growing Water Smart
• Integrating water and land use planning
Exploratory Scenario Planning
• Preparing for an uncertain future
Resilient Communities and Watersheds
Tools, Trainings and
Technical Assistance
Why Exploratory Scenario Planning (XSP)?
Planning Ethics
• Serve the public interest
• Leverage interrelatedness of decisions
• Understand Long range consequences of present actions
What’s the Difference?
Ways of thinking about the future
• Predictive/Forecasting
• Normative/Making Choices
• Strategic/Testing
Can we predict the future? | Can we choose our future?
XSP
• Evaluate alternative courses of action
• Determine strategies most successful in futures that we know the least about.
XSP’s Roots
Fortune 500 Best Practice for Capacity building and adaptation
• Royal Dutch Shell
• Rand Corp.
• Global Business Network
Why We Engaged XSP
• Define key process elements
• Measure success
• Define good, better, best practice
• How do local communities themselves measure success in integration?
• Educate/train professional and citizen planners
• E.g. Process guides, trainings, peer to peer learning
• Encourage regional approaches – Catalyze Collaboration
XSP is…
It IS about
BEING PREPAREDfor whatever happens in the future
NOT envisioning what we WANT to
happen or PREDICTING what will happen in the future…
“MacGyverizing” Communities + Organizations
XSP Explores a Broader Range of Future Possibility
Source: Modified from Global Business Network
NowEnvisions Multiple Possible Futures…
UNCERTAIN OUTCOMES Can Be Game Changers
…From What We
Don’t Know
“Cone of Uncertainty”
Source: Modified from Denver Water/Tucson Water
C
A
B
D
NOW
Future
Tipping/Pivot/Adaptation Points
Longer-Term
Contingent/Adaptive
Actions
Near-Term
Robust/
Low-Regret
Actions
2040
XSP Workshop Process
Set time horizon, Interview / Survey, Develop Focal Question
1 Brainstorm
Driving Forces2 Rank Driving
Forces3
Identify Most
Critical
Uncertainties
4
Identify
Robust
Actions
9
Create
Scenario
Matrices
5Develop
Scenario
Narratives
6
Explore the
Implications of
Each Future
7 Create a Path
of Action 8
Workshop #1
Workshop #2
Focal ? Mtg.
Focal Question
How does uncertainty impact the
goals and projects within the Upper
Verde River Watershed
Protection Coalition’s Watershed
Management Plan?
Upper Verde River Watershed
The Nature Conservancy
Upper Verde River Watershed Protection Coalition
WATERSHED MANAGEMENT PLAN
The Process
1. Online Survey of Coalition Members
2. Subgroups of Common Interest
3. Six Scenarios
4. Tested Performance of Four Elements from
WM Plan
Uncertainties Axes
Scenarios1. Smart Growth Management, Science Based Regulation,
Uninformed and Less Engaged Public, and Weak Local Economy
2. Scenario 1 + Climate Change
3. Smart Growth Management, Science Based Regulation,
Efficient Commercial Utilization
4. Scenario 3 + Climate Change
5. Weak Local Economy, Inefficient Commercialization of Natural
Resources
6. Scenario 5 + Climate Change
1. Strategic Project Implementation
2. Educate
3. Calculate for Climate Change
Uncertainty
4. Conduct Research
5. Raise Political Will for Smart growth
and Science-based policies
6. Diversify Economy
7. Create Business opportunities
8. Partner and Collaborate
Robust Strategies
Focal Question
How can the City of Fort Collins best manage its resources and adapt its
systems to improve performance as a
sustainable organization despite
uncertainty and the impacts of climate
change?
Fort Collins, CO
Source: Wikipedia
Municipal Sustainability and Adaptation Plans Update
Fort Collins, CO
The Process
1. Online Survey of Working Groups
2. Subgroups of “Systems”
3. Four Scenarios
4. Integration of robust strategies into MSAP,
Comp. Plan and beyond
● Population Increases
● Aging population
● Infrastructure cost + capacity
● Grant Funding and non-profits
● Homeless utilizing resources
● Water utilities
● Brick & mortar sales
● Cost of building resources
● Housing proximity + cost
● Waste diversion goals
● Local data and metrics
● Municipal fiscal health
● Natural disasters
● Employee turnover rates
● Utility rates
● Big data + Cyber security
● Organizational Culture
● Collaboration
● Innovation
● Budgeting process
● Water scarcity
● Staff capacity
Drivers
Uncertainties Axes
Scenarios
1. Regional Solutions
2. Educate + Build Public Responsibility
3. Adaptive + Agile Workforce (cross train)
4. Climate Science integrated into CIP
5. Systems Thinking
6. Culture of Wellness
7. Adaptive Design
8. Mitigate budget competition
9. Public Private Partnerships
10.Resourced Plans
Robust StrategiesUFC
Budgeting for
Outcomes
Strategic Plans
COMP. PLAN
Systems Design + Leadership
(MSAP)
Focal Question
How can changes in urban form and
landscaping practices for new growth and redevelopment assist in meeting
future urban water demand along the
Colorado Front Range?
Colorado Water and Growth Dialogue
The Process
1. Interviewed various stakeholders
2. Split workshop into 2 full days
3. 4 Scenarios
4. 18 Robust Strategies
Master List of Drivers1. Housing Affordability
2. Cost of Oil + Gas
3. Access to Outdoors + Recreation
4. Transportation Network / Technology
5. Economic Opportunity / Vibrancy /
Volatility
6. Net Population Growth
7. Flexibility in Working Environment /
Telecommuting
8. Millennial + Senior Housing
Preferences
9. Millennial + Senior Transportation
Preferences
10.Access to Real Estate Financing
(Builder + Buyer)
11.Perceived Strength of Job Market
12.Political Will – Local Control v.
Regionalism
13.Water Availability to Outlying Areas
14.Impact of Distributed Employment
Centers (T.O.D.)
15.Impact of TABOR on Investments
16.Attraction of “Cool” Factor; New
Urbanism
Drivers
Certainties• Net Pop. Growth
• Impact of Distributed
Employment Centers + T.O.D
• TABOR’s Legacy and
Repercussions
• Access to the Outdoors and
Recreational Tourism
Uncertainties• Innovative Transportation
Tech.
• Lifestyle Preferences
• Economic Health
Scenarios
Robust StrategiesGeneral Planning
1. Find the Sweet Spot – Density + Pt. of
Diminishing Returns
2. Create Water WISE Land Use Plans
3. Nurture a water efficient economy
Founded on efficient industries
4. Adopt a one water approach to water resources planning.
5. Fund implementation of Long-Range
planning strategies via Utility revenues
Education1. "Water in the West Welcome Wagon"
for New + Existing homeowners,
residents, developers, policy makers
Collaboration1. Increase Regional collaboration b/w
Front Range/West Slope communities
+ representatives
2. Eliminate Barriers, Permit + Increase
Water Sharing Agreements
3. Include "Designers" in engineering
departments
4. Partner with trained Water Stewards -
designers, builders, maintenance
crews, etc.
Robust Strategies
Data Management
1. Measure, Monitor + Message/Market Data + Success Stories
2. Develop/Track New Metrics:
Water Use/SF Categorized by
Land Use
3. Develop, Track + Compare
Community Water Budgets to
inform policies, programs, plans
and practices.
Incentives/Guidelines/Codes
1. Develop Stewardship Incentives: Tap
Fee Credits, Small Lots, etc.
2. Recommend New Design Guidelines for government owned buildings,
public spaces and rights of way.
3. Develop municipal landscaping codes based on best practices.
4. Agricultural Efficiency +
Conservation Measures
5. Adopt "True Cost" Pricing Policy
Lessons Learned/Future of XSP?
Scale | Enhance |Simplify
ADAPT to CONTEXT
Any Questions?
XSP Practice Exercise
Thank you!
Questions?
SONORANINSTITUTE.ORG
Harold Thomas, Program Manager
Sonoran Institute
Brandon Ruiz, Program Associate
Sonoran Institute
Jeremy Stapleton, Program Director
Sonoran Institute
Jim Holway, Director
Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy
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