Exploiting Modelling to Improve Decision-making

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TRAiDE™ is a trademark of BAE SYSTEMS. US patent applied for.

© Copyright BAE Systems 2009. All rights reserved

Exploiting Modelling to Improve Decision-making

A presentation to ISMOR 2009

Laura Bryan

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Contents

1. Introduction2. The need for decision support in TLCM3. What can we do to exploit OA better?4. The TRAiDE™ approach5. Why use the TRAiDE™ approach?6. Combat air capability example7. Some example outputs8. Summary9. Questions

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The need for decision support in TLCM

• MOD’s AOF definition:• “Through Life Capability Management translates the requirements of

Defence policy into an approved programme that delivers the required capabilities, through-life, across all Defence Lines of Development (DLoD)”

• OA models and toolsets support decision makers at all levels

From www.aof.mod.uk

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National Capability Trade Offs

Defence Policy andNational requirements

Capability ChangePlan

Capability Management Plan

Through Life Management Plan

Cross Capability Trade Offs

Equipment / LoD Trade Offs

CMG Capability Trade Offs

LoDs

Budget & Aspirations

Reality and Costs


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Many OA models and studies address specific questions. Why not bring these together under a consistent & common framework that supports DMs

at different levels…? Decisions and trades need to be made over

time at different levels

The trade space is not discrete

Lots of data and information exists & is

generated at each level

There are many factors to take into account

MOD budgets are constrained Capability must

be managed against

changing threats

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The TRAiDE™ approach

All elements are supported by suitably trained people using robust

processes and techniques

The information manager is at the core of TRAiDE™,

ensuring that all models & tools use a single source of

data (capture once, use many times)

Consistent and intuitive visualisations bring

together the information to support the decision-

making process

External models & software interface with the information

manager

The information manager enables us to capture and

store data using a consistent structure

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Why use the TRAiDE™ approach

• Trades can be made using a common informed dataset• Ensures decisions can be made with high level coherence• Ensures decisions are made in context, across boundaries

• Ensures consistent use of data within the various models and tools• Collect data once, use many times

• Brings together different tools & models within a coherent framework• Don’t need to re-invent• Get a more-holistic view of the issues & support ‘higher-level’ decisions

• Provides consistent visualisations at different levels in the hierarchy• Can produce different views for different audiences using the same data• Inclusivity

• Bring together data, knowledge and stakeholders (including industry)

• The method is re-usable and repeatable• The method is scalable – can be aggregated / dis-aggregated

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Combat Air Capability example

The project:• Examine the benefits of a joint (MOD

& BAE Systems) approach to TLCM• Understand the impact of decisions

on fast jet capability and sustainability

• Developed a decision support toolset to enable cost, FE@R and industrial trade-off analysis across key DLoDs

• Modelled the key activities required to deliver and support fast jet capability over the next 30 years for current and future fast jet fleets

• Quantified the relationships between key factors

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Combat Air Capability example

Combat air capability

Fast Jet FE@R

Generation

FJ CostsDLoD

demands

Industrial capacity

Project & programme

risks

Cost models

OA models and toolsets

DLoD models

Risk tools

Industrial models

Capability models

Data & assumptionsOptions & scenarios User interfaces

Option comparison

Requirements

Fast Jet Activity models

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Risk Model

s

Cost Models

Capability

Models

Activity

Models

Industry

Models

DLoD Model

s

MDAL

Capability

Profiles

FE@R

Profiles

Cost Profile

s

Risk Profile

s

The Combat Air TRAiDE™ approach

Option comparison

Requirements

OA models & tools

User interface (information manager)

Data & assumptions

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Some example outputs

Prepared by the TRAiDE™ team.

02 Main Dashboards

Doc

trin

e &

Con

cept

s

Equipment

Information

Infrastructure

Logi

s tic

s

Organisation

Personnel

Training

Defence Lines of DevelopmentPBIE Projects (example)

01 Project A Green02 Project B Yellow03 Project C Red04 Project D Green05 Project E Green06 Project F Yellow07 Project G Red08 Project H Green

Risks Dashboard Actions Dashboard Issues Dashboard

Key Project StatusDependency Dashboard

Campaign Dashboard Finance Dashboard Capability Dashboard

DLoD Status

High Risk

Medium Risk

Low Risk

Low Risk

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Summary

• TRAiDE™ is a framework, not a tool• Combines people, processes, techniques and information management

• TRAiDE™ is inclusive• Allows existing tools, models and data to be integrated

• It can support trade-offs and capability management at different levels involving different stakeholders

• It offers a way of improving our use of OA by bringing together discrete studies & toolsets in a coherent way

• TRAiDE™ has been used successfully by BAE Systems on a number of studies / engagements

• In support of MOD

• In support of BAE Systems

• To support joint MOD & BAE Systems studies

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Questions?

Documents

Exploiting Modelling to Improve Decision-making