Expert Meeting on Weather Climate and Expert Meeting on Weather Climate and Farmers .Farmers .

Successful Application of Weather And Successful Application of Weather And Climate Information, Data and Forecast Climate Information, Data and Forecast

System in AgricultureSystem in Agriculture..

Arjumand HabibArjumand Habib

BangladeshBangladesh

INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION

Agriculture is mainly dependent on Weather and Climate.Agriculture is mainly dependent on Weather and Climate.

The main objective of the Agro meteorological forecasting The main objective of the Agro meteorological forecasting services development is to reduce the impacts of natural services development is to reduce the impacts of natural disasters and to attain sustainability especially in food security disasters and to attain sustainability especially in food security management for the growing population.management for the growing population.

And the services around the world have been undergone a And the services around the world have been undergone a series of evolution since their inception with the development of series of evolution since their inception with the development of science and technology.science and technology.

From the second half of the last century the phase of From the second half of the last century the phase of development has attained the maximum momentum because of development has attained the maximum momentum because of advancement of science and technology during the period.advancement of science and technology during the period.

Besides the self, bilateral and international efforts for the Besides the self, bilateral and international efforts for the improvement of the services , WMO’s contribution was improvement of the services , WMO’s contribution was remarkable since its inception as a coordinator of remarkable since its inception as a coordinator of meteorological data exchange through Global meteorological data exchange through Global Telecommunication Link (GTS) and other technical assistance Telecommunication Link (GTS) and other technical assistance on regional and global basis. on regional and global basis.

Other than the developed countries, still most of the developing Other than the developed countries, still most of the developing countries capacity for prediction of weather and climate is very countries capacity for prediction of weather and climate is very less especially in the context of global warming and climate less especially in the context of global warming and climate change scenario.change scenario.

More improvement in the meteorological More improvement in the meteorological forecasting system is the key factor for effective forecasting system is the key factor for effective

Agro meteorological servicesAgro meteorological services

Modernization of meteorological and Agricultural Modernization of meteorological and Agricultural management system is must for overall prediction management system is must for overall prediction enhancement.enhancement.

It is indispensable now for the introduction of It is indispensable now for the introduction of Numerical Weather Prediction techniques in weather Numerical Weather Prediction techniques in weather forecasting for having objective decision making with forecasting for having objective decision making with more lead time.more lead time.

More data coverage by Doppler Radar System, Satellite More data coverage by Doppler Radar System, Satellite monitoring and Automatic remote sensing stations. monitoring and Automatic remote sensing stations.

Improved weather, Climate data and information will certainly Improved weather, Climate data and information will certainly improve the functionality of agricultural modeling.improve the functionality of agricultural modeling.

GIS technology will help further the functionality of modeling GIS technology will help further the functionality of modeling system by assimilating more environmental and socio economic system by assimilating more environmental and socio economic information and finally enhance the decision making process of information and finally enhance the decision making process of agricultural managementagricultural management..

Application of Models in AgricultureApplication of Models in Agriculture Statistical models have good practical results in arid –tropical Statistical models have good practical results in arid –tropical

and temperate zone for drought mitigation .and temperate zone for drought mitigation .

Simulation technology is an efficient management tool for Simulation technology is an efficient management tool for planning and production estimate.planning and production estimate.

For taking proper adaptation measures, assessment of future For taking proper adaptation measures, assessment of future climate change impact on productivity, simulation model can climate change impact on productivity, simulation model can offer a better prospect.offer a better prospect.

Integration of simulation and Global circulation model give Integration of simulation and Global circulation model give impact assessment of climate change on different crops on impact assessment of climate change on different crops on regional and global basisregional and global basis..

Example of Application of Simulation Model Example of Application of Simulation Model in climate Change Scenario Assessmentin climate Change Scenario Assessment..

CERES-Wheat model V3.5 is validated on various genotypes CERES-Wheat model V3.5 is validated on various genotypes under diverse environment in North West India.under diverse environment in North West India.

Results indicate that the simulated phonological and yield Results indicate that the simulated phonological and yield attributes are either close to observed ones or vary with -15% attributes are either close to observed ones or vary with -15% to + 15%. This is quite acceptable for most management to + 15%. This is quite acceptable for most management decision.decision.

The effect of increasing COThe effect of increasing CO2 2 concentration will increase net concentration will increase net primary productivity of plants, but climate change and its primary productivity of plants, but climate change and its associated changes ultimately lead to either increased or associated changes ultimately lead to either increased or decreased net eco system productivity.decreased net eco system productivity.

Impact of modified climate is observed higher under rain-fed Impact of modified climate is observed higher under rain-fed conditions as compared to irrigated ones in all genotypes.conditions as compared to irrigated ones in all genotypes.

Adaptation assessment suggests that the possible changes in Adaptation assessment suggests that the possible changes in sowing dates and hybrid selection can reduce the negative sowing dates and hybrid selection can reduce the negative impact of projected future warming in the country.impact of projected future warming in the country.

To asses the impact of climate in the sugar beet yield over To asses the impact of climate in the sugar beet yield over northern Europe, simulation model result indicate expected northern Europe, simulation model result indicate expected increase of production by one tons/hectare in Northern Europe.increase of production by one tons/hectare in Northern Europe.

But decrease of similar magnitude in northern France, Belgium But decrease of similar magnitude in northern France, Belgium and West/ Central Poland for the period 20021-2050.and West/ Central Poland for the period 20021-2050.

Drought losses are predicted to approx. double in area with an Drought losses are predicted to approx. double in area with an existing problem and a serious new problem in NE France and existing problem and a serious new problem in NE France and Belgium.Belgium.

Example of Operational Agro-meteorological Example of Operational Agro-meteorological Forecasting System in AustraliaForecasting System in Australia

““Farm weather” service provide weather forecast and agronomic advice Farm weather” service provide weather forecast and agronomic advice to a large part of Australia.to a large part of Australia.

Economic benefits of the service based on only the production of four Economic benefits of the service based on only the production of four main export crops are about six times, the cost of producing the services.main export crops are about six times, the cost of producing the services.

The service product has been developed with the help of Radar , Satellite, The service product has been developed with the help of Radar , Satellite, NWP, Automatic remote sensing observations with speedy and reliable NWP, Automatic remote sensing observations with speedy and reliable communication.communication.

The product includes forecast for one week, The product includes forecast for one week, incorporating expert opinion of meteorologist , incorporating expert opinion of meteorologist , containing computer graphics depicting model output, containing computer graphics depicting model output, Radar and satellite picture.Radar and satellite picture.

Dissemination to the end user by fax and internetDissemination to the end user by fax and internet ““Farmweather” can be applicable in developing Farmweather” can be applicable in developing

countries provided they have sufficient real time countries provided they have sufficient real time monitoring system and at least Fax Machine for monitoring system and at least Fax Machine for dissemination.dissemination.

India

Myanmer

Example of Application of Weather and Climate data,Example of Application of Weather and Climate data, information in Agricultural management in developing information in Agricultural management in developing Countries.Countries. BANGLADESHBANGLADESHAgro based tropical country having area of 147, 570 sq kms & population is Agro based tropical country having area of 147, 570 sq kms & population is 135 millions.135 millions.

Low lying country comprising of a delta at the confluence of the major rivers Low lying country comprising of a delta at the confluence of the major rivers flow from India , Nepal, China and ultimately fall to the Bay of Bengal throughflow from India , Nepal, China and ultimately fall to the Bay of Bengal throughBangladesh.Bangladesh.

About 80% of the land is flood prone, at least 20% of the land normallyAbout 80% of the land is flood prone, at least 20% of the land normallyInundated and under excessive flooding about 70% area is affected duringInundated and under excessive flooding about 70% area is affected duringmonsoon.monsoon.

Climate is dominated by southwest monsoon.Climate is dominated by southwest monsoon.

Plentiful rain, less annual variability and equable thermal regime made thePlentiful rain, less annual variability and equable thermal regime made thecountry a developed agricultural area.country a developed agricultural area.

Background of agricultural Management In Background of agricultural Management In BangladeshBangladesh

During last three decades food production tripled from 10 During last three decades food production tripled from 10 million tones of early 1970’s 20 27 million tones in 2000million tones of early 1970’s 20 27 million tones in 2000

This is due to the rapid adaptation of mechanical irrigation, use This is due to the rapid adaptation of mechanical irrigation, use of modern HYV varieties of seeds, increased use of fertilizer, of modern HYV varieties of seeds, increased use of fertilizer, pesticides and effective extension service along with weather pesticides and effective extension service along with weather forecast for day to day agricultural operation.forecast for day to day agricultural operation.

In 1986, Agro meteorological service of Bangladesh In 1986, Agro meteorological service of Bangladesh meteorological department started functioning with 12 Agro-met meteorological department started functioning with 12 Agro-met stations. In 2003, more radiation and soil moisture measuring stations. In 2003, more radiation and soil moisture measuring instruments are included in the service.instruments are included in the service.

10 days Agro meteorological bulletins issued containing past 10 days Agro meteorological bulletins issued containing past weather and climate data and information with 10 days weather and climate data and information with 10 days forecast.forecast.

++ Dissemination to the policy makers by fax and end user by Dissemination to the policy makers by fax and end user by extension service.extension service.

After 1975’s great famine, Bangladesh did not suffer from major After 1975’s great famine, Bangladesh did not suffer from major food crisis.food crisis.

Food production at the moment is not at the rate earlier the Food production at the moment is not at the rate earlier the country enjoyed, but population growth is continuing .country enjoyed, but population growth is continuing .

Our emphasis on rice production has limited the scope for Our emphasis on rice production has limited the scope for livestock and fish cultivationlivestock and fish cultivation

Indiscriminate use of pesticides and chemical fertilizer now Indiscriminate use of pesticides and chemical fertilizer now became a threat to natural eco system.became a threat to natural eco system.

So any fluctuation due to climate variability could upset the So any fluctuation due to climate variability could upset the delicately balanced food management .delicately balanced food management .

Existing meteorological and Agro-meteorological services Existing meteorological and Agro-meteorological services have not enough capacity to give seasonal and accurate have not enough capacity to give seasonal and accurate lead time forecast for extreme events especially for flood.lead time forecast for extreme events especially for flood.

Limitation of existing Food Information Limitation of existing Food Information SystemSystem

The occurrence of flood at the time of harvest not The occurrence of flood at the time of harvest not only leaves little time to complete harvest only leaves little time to complete harvest operation, also delayed the time for next operation, also delayed the time for next transplanting.transplanting.

Loss of investment made for the damaged crops Loss of investment made for the damaged crops reduces the capacity of the farmers for sowing / reduces the capacity of the farmers for sowing / planting of next crop.planting of next crop.

Potential value of accurate short to Medium Potential value of accurate short to Medium Range Flood forecast ( 5 days to 2 weeksRange Flood forecast ( 5 days to 2 weeks))

Acceleration of harvesting of crops when threatened by Acceleration of harvesting of crops when threatened by floods and to take mid season correction and crop life floods and to take mid season correction and crop life saving measures when ever possible.saving measures when ever possible.

To protect farm assets.To protect farm assets.

Potential value of long range Forecast Potential value of long range Forecast ( 2 months or more)( 2 months or more)

Flood escaping cropping strategy could be taken for flood Flood escaping cropping strategy could be taken for flood prone area.prone area.

Availability of short duration varieties of crops, proper Availability of short duration varieties of crops, proper extension, market support, acceptance of probabilistic extension, market support, acceptance of probabilistic forecast by farmers in various risk prone areas are needed forecast by farmers in various risk prone areas are needed for better management.for better management.

ConclusionConclusion

The capacity of meteorologist and farmers to be enhanced.The capacity of meteorologist and farmers to be enhanced.

Seasonal and accurate lead-time forecast for extreme Seasonal and accurate lead-time forecast for extreme events.events.

Proper adaptation strategy to be taken in the context of Proper adaptation strategy to be taken in the context of climate change.climate change.

INDIA INDIA

ClimateClimateThe sub continent covers tropical, sub-tropical and temperate The sub continent covers tropical, sub-tropical and temperate regions.regions.

The annual variation of rainfall is large being less than 10 cm in The annual variation of rainfall is large being less than 10 cm in North west and over 1000 cm in North East with varying weather North west and over 1000 cm in North East with varying weather phenomena like snow storm, tropical cyclone, excessive rainfall phenomena like snow storm, tropical cyclone, excessive rainfall etc.etc.

Temperature vary from -45° to 49°C in winter to summer from Temperature vary from -45° to 49°C in winter to summer from North west in winter to central Rajasthan in summer. North west in winter to central Rajasthan in summer.

However the main feature of the climate is characterized by the However the main feature of the climate is characterized by the south west monsoon rainfall, but its wide variation in time and south west monsoon rainfall, but its wide variation in time and space causing droughts and floods.space causing droughts and floods.

Cropping Pattern in INDIACropping Pattern in INDIA

Different states have different cropping and vegetation Different states have different cropping and vegetation patterns based on agro–climatic feature of rainfall , types of patterns based on agro–climatic feature of rainfall , types of soil and topography.soil and topography.

Annual rainfall variability from one state to another stretches Annual rainfall variability from one state to another stretches from 10% - 60% or even more, characterized by heavy to from 10% - 60% or even more, characterized by heavy to low rainfall.low rainfall.

So, flooding and drought are the common phenomena So, flooding and drought are the common phenomena causing considerable decrease in yield and loss of causing considerable decrease in yield and loss of agricultural output.agricultural output.

Southwest monsoon rainfall and its distribution are very Southwest monsoon rainfall and its distribution are very crucial for crop production.crucial for crop production.

History of Agro meteorological Services History of Agro meteorological Services Development In INDIADevelopment In INDIA

In 1875 the system for meteorological observation and its In 1875 the system for meteorological observation and its dissemination to the Govt was established throughout dissemination to the Govt was established throughout India.India.

After that, the long period since then up to today, various After that, the long period since then up to today, various collaborative and coordinated schemes were taken collaborative and coordinated schemes were taken incorporating Govt’s Departments, Research Institutes and incorporating Govt’s Departments, Research Institutes and Universities to exploit weather and climate system for Universities to exploit weather and climate system for agriculture and those steps had facilitated the growth of agriculture and those steps had facilitated the growth of Agro-Meteorology in different dimensions in India.Agro-Meteorology in different dimensions in India.

Mitigational ApproachesMitigational Approaches

The anticipated population growth may be 15000 million by 2020.The anticipated population growth may be 15000 million by 2020.

The food production has to be stepped up from 184 million metric tones The food production has to be stepped up from 184 million metric tones during the year 1994-95 to 225 million metric tones by 2020.during the year 1994-95 to 225 million metric tones by 2020.

The water needs in agricultural sector are very high as several thousand The water needs in agricultural sector are very high as several thousand tones of water is required to produce one metric tone of food grain.tones of water is required to produce one metric tone of food grain.

Therefore long term strategies for mitigation of drought is very important for Therefore long term strategies for mitigation of drought is very important for INDIA.INDIA.

Energy shortage is another constraint in drought mitigation.Energy shortage is another constraint in drought mitigation.

So to mitigate floods and droughts India have undertaken a So to mitigate floods and droughts India have undertaken a very detailed study to formulate a set of criteria for very detailed study to formulate a set of criteria for optimum sowing rains and established a system for optimum sowing rains and established a system for monitoring of droughts on real time basis.monitoring of droughts on real time basis.

Criteria for optimum sowing rains are drawn on the basis Criteria for optimum sowing rains are drawn on the basis of long term data of 80 years (1901-1981).of long term data of 80 years (1901-1981).

Drought Research Unit of India prepares monthly Aridity Drought Research Unit of India prepares monthly Aridity Anomaly maps.Anomaly maps.

From the survey it is found that the monitoring of drought From the survey it is found that the monitoring of drought have made marked improvement in the agricultural have made marked improvement in the agricultural practices. The evolved techniques also in help for planners practices. The evolved techniques also in help for planners in the following fields:in the following fields:– Conservation of soil moistureConservation of soil moisture– Introduction of crop sowing techniquesIntroduction of crop sowing techniques– Introduction of alternate cropping patternIntroduction of alternate cropping pattern

Application of Statistical and simulation Application of Statistical and simulation models in Agriculture for decision making models in Agriculture for decision making

and adaptation.and adaptation.

Monthly interim forecast are prepared for policy makers by using Monthly interim forecast are prepared for policy makers by using Regression crop yield modelRegression crop yield model

Simulation models for Wheat and Rice are validated under diverse Simulation models for Wheat and Rice are validated under diverse climatic conditions to asses the climate change impacts.climatic conditions to asses the climate change impacts.

Operational Agro meteorological Operational Agro meteorological ServicesServices

For day to day agricultural operations, daily weather For day to day agricultural operations, daily weather bulletins containing past weather, district wise forecast for bulletins containing past weather, district wise forecast for next 24 hrs and outlook for subsequent two days with next 24 hrs and outlook for subsequent two days with warning for extreme events are issued twice daily and warning for extreme events are issued twice daily and broadcast by Radio.broadcast by Radio.

Agro met advisory bulletin which is short and medium Agro met advisory bulletin which is short and medium range weather forecast issued twice a week in consultation range weather forecast issued twice a week in consultation with agricultural expert for taking planning decision and with agricultural expert for taking planning decision and broadcast by Radio and also telecast & published in broadcast by Radio and also telecast & published in Newspapers.Newspapers.

Other Fields of Operational Agro-Other Fields of Operational Agro-Meteorological ActivitiesMeteorological Activities

The objective of Dry farming activities is to help farmers of the The objective of Dry farming activities is to help farmers of the area where no irrigation facilities available for proper utilization area where no irrigation facilities available for proper utilization of short period rainfall more efficientlyof short period rainfall more efficiently

For locust eradication 7 Pilot balloon cum micro meteorological For locust eradication 7 Pilot balloon cum micro meteorological stations are used to monitor the low level flow of locust stations are used to monitor the low level flow of locust

To improve the agricultural practices in mass scale , Satellite To improve the agricultural practices in mass scale , Satellite Instructional Television experiment has been started functioning Instructional Television experiment has been started functioning since 1975.since 1975.

The programme includesThe programme includes– Weather InformationWeather Information– Advise on sowing OperationAdvise on sowing Operation– Application of insecticidesApplication of insecticides– Warning for floodsWarning for floods

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION

The climate change will have significant interaction The climate change will have significant interaction with crop growth, development, water use and with crop growth, development, water use and productivity. So, it would be a threat to the existing productivity. So, it would be a threat to the existing agriculture practices.agriculture practices.

To combat the negative impact of climate change, To combat the negative impact of climate change, an appropriate weather and climate based an appropriate weather and climate based advisory and forecast of all scale generated from advisory and forecast of all scale generated from high resolution data source and system along with high resolution data source and system along with proper adaptation measures are to be taken. proper adaptation measures are to be taken.