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Experiences in Measuring Transport CO2 Emissions in Asia
Sudhir GotaClean Air AsiaLee Schipper Scholar (2013)
Regional Capacity Building Workshop on Measurement of Inland Transport CO2 Emissions and Mitigation Policies26-27 September 2013Bangkok
Clean Air Asia’s Efforts
Developing Asian countries cannot adequately “measure carbon”– Lee Schipper in 2008Collected data are often not easily accessible, or are incomplete– Accessing Asia in 2012
Developing Asian countries cannot adequately “measure carbon”– Lee Schipper in 2008Collected data are often not easily accessible, or are incomplete– Accessing Asia in 2012
20082012/20132009 onwards
Annual Growth in 2000-2010
10%FUEL
(ASIA)
12%VEHICLES(ASIA)
10%CO2
ROADTRANSPORT
(ASIA)
8%GDP
IND INO NEP PAK PHI PRC SIN SRI THA VIE
Limited data is the Biggest Barrier
Policymakers/Experts and Transport Emissions
Source : https://cee39d0c-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/dinaanu/Home/other-intere
Billion Tons Problem in Transport
Nearly 30 studies reviewed , 2010 – India ( 3X) and China ( 5X).
The variation in 2020 for both China and India exceeds 1 billon tons of CO2 which is same as emitted by Asia in 2009/ 2010
Estimation of Number of Vehicles
Trucks and Buses have low fuel efficiency and they travel more, so the impact gets multiplied i.e. can be 10-12 times higher.
Main Issues in ASIF Quantifications
India
● Nearly 40% of studies in India assumed vehicles on road– 60‐90% of registered vehicles (2010=Indonesia)
● Official Ministry disaggregates modes into 12 categories but nearly 50% of studies considered 6 or less number of modes ( Aggregated Data)
China
● Term “Total Vehicles” means different things to different people
● In China ‐ FE debate has helped in making very reasonable assumptions on Fuel efficiency but VKT and fuel split data is mainly sourced from 1‐2 studies
In China and India occupancy/tonnage data is misleading.
Energy statistics –2012‐2013
Energy statistics –2011 and previous
Diesel Consumption in India
Hybrid Models
Top vs Bottom in India
YearNo of
estimatesCO2 Top down estimates (MT)
CO2 Total Bottom estimates (MT)
CO2 from Gasoline (MT)
Low High Low High
2000 13 86 81 191 18 37
2005 16 90 120 254 24 43
2010 15 127 161 382 40 82
2020 15 286 790 84 142
2030 9 365 1241 122 234
Majority of variation in total CO2 emissions can be explained by variations in diesel consumption.
Passenger Transport Efficiency
India official data
Without FE standards
With FE standards
Road Freight Efficiency
International Researchers
National Researchers
/Govt Estimates
Why Avoid and Shift is Critical – China Example
1. By 2050, one billion vehicles could be on road. Activity Projections suggest a range of 7,000 to 12,000 billion VKT
2. Using current road occupancy levels as a benchmark, additional lane kilometer requirement for China would be around 20‐30 million lanekm
3. If road construction is carried out at the same pace as done previously, additional Lanekm of 14 million could be physically built.
4. To build 30 Million lane kilometres ,
• Government needs to invest ? trillion USD and
• land required would be ? million Ha.
Growth in vehicle activity cannot be sustained
China . India . Indonesia . Nepal . Pakistan . Philippines . Sri Lanka . Vietnam
[email protected] 3505 Robinsons Equitable Tower
ADB Avenue, Pasig CityMetro Manila 1605
Philippines
Clean Air Asia Center
[email protected] Reignwood Building,
No. 8 YongAnDongLi Jianguomenwai Avenue Beijing
China
Clean Air Asia China Office
[email protected] Floor, Building No. 4
Thyagraj Nagar Market, Lodhi Colony New Delhi 110003
India
Clean Air Asia India Office
Clean Air Asia Country Networks
14
Clean Air Asia Center Members
•Shell•Asia Clean Fuels Association•Corning
240 Clean Air Asia Partnership Members
• Cities• Environment ministries and government agencies
• Development agencies and foundations• Non‐government organizations• Academic and research institutions• Private sector companies and associations
Donors in 2012 to 2013
Asian Development Bank Cities Development Initiative for Asia ClimateWorks Foundation DHL/IKEA/UPS Energy Foundation Fredskorpset Norway Fu Tak Iam Foundation
German International Cooperation (GIZ) Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Institute for Transport Policy Studies Institute for Transportation and Development Policy International Union for Conservation of Nature L'Agence Française de Développement (AFD) MAHA Pilipinas Shell Rockefeller Brothers Fund Shakti Foundation Shell Foundation United Nations Environment Program Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles (UNEP PCFV) USAID CEnergy Veolia World Bank
For more information: www.cleanairasia.orgFor more information: www.cleanairasia.orgFor more information: www.cleanairasia.org
Thanks Lee