Volume XX | June 2019

On January 17th, 2019, the National Liberation Army

(or ELN) carried out the largest attack to hit the

nation’s capital, Bogota, in 16 years—a car bomb

that killed 21 people at a police academy. The

attack represented a major escalation by ELN,

which has been attacking Colombian oil and energy

infrastructure with increasing frequency since

2015—compounding concerns over declining oil prices

and contributing to a GDP growth rate that ranks in

just the 30th percentile globally.

Many Colombians were optimistic that the historic

2016 peace deal between the government and the

Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)

Map Algebra is a form of raster analysis

used to manipulate geographic data by

combining multiple complex raster layers

(each with similar dimensions but varying

values of significance) into a new raster

layer. In this instance, the output is a Maxar

Vulnerability Assessment, which is intended

to represent asimplified, but manageable

view of reality as it relates to violence

in Colombia.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Summary of Unique Tools & Applications

signaled the end of the country’s decades-long conflict

with violent opposition groups. But this peace process

is threatened by violent actors like ELN who maintain

the capacity to target critical infrastructure, social

leaders, and development initiatives. In fact, ELN has

increased its financial and operational strength by

gaining new territory in Venezuela, whose continued

instability makes it attractive to opposition groups.

But the areas most vital to the group’s survival are still

located in Colombia.

Geospatial modeling techniques like map algebra

allowed Maxar to identify several municipalities and

subregions that are highly vulnerable and strategically

important to Colombia’s violent actors. In

these areas, the belligerents have strong

influence and are solidifying or competing

for lucrative terrain. In addition, portions

of the population are either tolerant of or

acquiescent to illicit activity because of poor

human development and capital stock. These

highly vulnerable locations will likely require

significant attention for sustained peace and

stability to take hold in Colombia.

NariñoCaquetá

Meta

Cauca

Chocó

Antioquia

Córdoba

Norte de Santander

Vichada

Guainía

Guaviare

Vaupés

Amazonas

Putumayo

Arauca

Casanare

Cundinamarca

Cesar

La Guajira

Santander

Sucre

Atlántico

Huila

TolimaValle deCauca

Caldas

Bolívar

Boyacá

Magdalena

Lower Vulnerability

Vulnerability Assessment

Higher Vulnerability

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S P O T L I G H T

Vulnerability Layer: ELN-AGC Competition

Although the FARC has largely laid down its weapons,

there are still a number of armed, sub-national groups

active in Colombia. The most significant are the ELN and

Autodefansas Gaitanistas de Colombia (AGC), also called

Clan de Gulfo.

ELN is a left-wing insurgent group that has been active in

Colombia since the 1960s. Its approximately 2,000 fighters

are primarily located along the Venezuelan and Ecuadorean

borders. Although engaged in negotiations with the

government about a cessation of hostilities, ELN remains

active and is responsible for some of the localized increases

in violence in areas where the FARC was once dominant.

Government pressure and the waning of leftist ideologies

over the last three decades reduced the group’s ideological

focus and external support. Today, it is heavily engaged in

the illicit economy (coca cultivation and illegal mining) to

obtain needed funds.

AGC was formed in 2006 as a paramilitary organization

to protect civilians from the FARC and ELN. It has since

evolved into a full-fledged criminal network with over 7,000

members operating under a military-style organization

which is integrated into coca cultivation, illegal mining,

and cocaine trafficking. The organization also maintains

ties to other international criminal and drug trafficking

organizations, such as Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel.

In addition, there are between 1,200 and 1,500 FARC

dissidents loosely organized into 16-18 distinct groups

scattered across seven Departments. No longer interested

in waging an insurgency against the government, these

groups primary act to consolidate control in discreet

locations while increasing their access to the illicit economy.

The mapping of group territories (bottom-left) was used

to model areas with combined/competing ELN and AGC

influence (bottom-right). This was then used as a weighted

surface layer for the Vulnerability Assessment.

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S P O T L I G H T

Vulnerability Layer: Assassinations and Coca Cultivation

As part of the FARC peace deal, the Colombian government

established numerous Territorial Areas for Training and

Reintegration (TATRs) in order to provide assistance to

former FARC members transitioning into Colombian society.

Due to a lack of funding, support, and organization, only 6 out

of an original 26 are considered fully functional. The TATRs

also reportedly have a 48 percent attrition rate. Additionally,

there is a small but growing pattern of violence against

former FARC members in some reintegration areas.

According to media reports, 454 local social leaders and

human rights advocates have been murdered since 2016

without a clear motive or suspect; 163 of these killings have

been confirmed by the government. In addition, 85 former

FARC members have been killed in reintegration areas. These

deaths are concentrated in Cauca, Norte de Santander, and

Antioquia Departments. Colombian authorities suspect that

these individuals were singled out to better enable some of

the current armed groups to increase control of the local

drug trade or exploit new infrastructure programs.

Cultivation of the coca leaf (the foundation of cocaine) is up

sharply since 2013, increasing at an average of 45% per

year. As of December 2017, there were 171,000 hectares

of coca being cultivated in Colombia—a record high that

accounted for approximately 70% of the world’s total

coca leaf production. Nariño remained the most affected

department in the country, while the greatest increase

in production was noted in Antioquia, Cauca, Norte de

Santander, and Putumayo Departments.

The map on the bottom-left displays the locations of

assassinations that occurred in 2018. This data was used to

create a kernel density layer and a weighted surface layer

for the Vulnerability Assessment. The map on the bottom-

right displays a surface layer of areas with the presence of

coca cultivation, which was also added to the Vulnerability

Assessment.

Antioquia

Norte de Santander

Cauca

Putumayo

Nariño

Antioquia

Norte de Santander

Cauca

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S P O T L I G H T

Vulnerability Layers: Capital Stock and Landcover

According to the United Nations Development Programme

(UNDP), Colombia ranks in the 44th percentile globally in

terms of inequality-adjusted human development. In an effort

to capture human development and capital stock throughout

the country, a raster calculation was performed on values

pertaining to health, education, employment, and housing.

The map on the bottom-left displays the capital stock

calculation normalized by population. The map on the bottom-

right displays a land cover raster. Both layers were applied

as a weighted surface layer to the Vulnerability Assessment.

Higher Capital Stock

Lower Capital Stock

Capital Stock Per Capita

More Desirable

Less Desirable

Landcover Classification

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S P O T L I G H T

Vulnerability Layer: Transportation

According to the World Economic Forum, the quality of

Colombia’s road infrastructure ranks in just the 20th

percentile globally. Additionally, just 3 percent of the

country’s rural population is located within one hour of

a market. This isolation increases production costs and

significantly impedes small-scale commerce and crop

substitution efforts designed to eradicate coca production.

A key component of the government’s strategy to build on the

successful peace process with the FARC is to improve this

infrastructure, which would also increase economic growth

as well as improve the development and social inclusion of

Colombia’s rural regions.

In addition to the 4G road program, Colombia is working to

improve its air and sea ports. Projects under development

include modernization of nine existing regional airports

and the construction of two new airports at Bogota and

Cartagena. Of note, Bogota’s existing El Dorado airport

is Latin America’s third-busiest passenger hub and its

busiest cargo hub. Colombia is also expanding its maritime

commerce systems with plans to develop 17 port terminals in

seven Departments on the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean.

The map on the bottom-left displays Colombia’s road network.

The map on the bottom-right displays a density layer for both

road infrastructure and airfields. This was then added to the

Vulnerability Assessment as a combined weighted

surface layer.

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S P O T L I G H T

conclusion

According to Maxar’s geospatial modeling and raster

analysis, a number of rural Colombian municipalities

and subregions were identified as highly vulnerable. The

locations identified by the Vulnerability Assessment are

historic strongholds for violent groups like the FARC,

ELN, and AGC. They are also critical to the violent groups’

continued survival because of three main factors:

1) They offer lucrative sources of revenue through coca

cultivation, illicit mining, and/or the facilitation of drugs and

other illicit goods.

2) They foster both active and ideological support for

Colombia’s violent actors, primarily out of practical

necessity. Residents in these remote locations feel a sense

of abandonment and fear any direct resistance against the

violent actors.

3) They offer valuable cover and concealment because of

their remote nature and limited infrastructure. Because of

the terrain and dense forestry, some of the locations serve

as strategic launch points for attacks against important

energy infrastructure or other targets of opportunity.

Antioquia

BolivarCórdoba

Chocó

Nariño

Highly Vulnerable Municipalities / Subregions

The powerful geospatial modeling and raster analysis capabilities provided by Maxar offer a unique look at the current

and historical status of violent extremist groups and the populations they look to exploit—providing governments and

NGOs with an increased ability to adjust their tactics in response.

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S P O T L I G H T