Executive Board meeting 11 March 2004. GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined. Quarterly growth. Per

Executive Board meeting11 March 2004



GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined.

Quarterly growth. Per cent. 2001 - 2003. Seasonally adjusted

-2

-1

0

1

2

-2

-1

0

1

2

2001 2002 2003

US Japan Euro area Trading partners

Sources: EcoWin/US Department of Commerce, ESRI (JP) EURO-OP/Eurostat and Norges Bank


Regional network

• Activity is rising in most industries

• The market outlook is favourable for the next six months

• Developments in output and demand are positive for manufacturing, construction, distributive trades and services

• However, few enterprises are planning an increase in investment

• Many enterprises report that they can increase production to a fairly large extent without a substantial growth in employment


2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200680

90

100

110

0

2

4

6

8

10

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Assumptions for money market rate and the krone exchange rate (I-44) in Inflation Report 1/04

Source: Norges Bank

Forward rate4 March

3-month money market rate

1)A rising curve denotes a weaker krone exchange rate

Forward rate4 March

Import-weighted exchange rate, I-441)


Projections for CPI-ATE and the output gap1). Per cent

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1) The output gap is a measure of the difference between actual and trend output. See box in IR 1/03

CPI-ATE

Output gap

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank


CPI-ATE Total and by supplier sector. Historical developments and projections. 12-month rise. Per cent

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


Goods and services produced in Norway

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods


85

90

95

100

105

110Jan 02 Jul 02 Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1)A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate

Import-weighted krone exchange rate1), sight deposit rate and 3-month interest rate differential against

trading partners. Daily figures. 1 Jan 2002 - 9 March 2004

I-44 (left-hand scale)

Sight deposit rate (right-hand scale)

Interest rate differential 3-month (right-hand scale)

Source: Norges Bank


Indicator of external price impulses to consumer goods measured in foreign currency.

Historical developments and projections. Annual figures. 95-06

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Source: Norges Bank


0

1

2

3

4

5

Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 050

1

2

3

4

5

Interest rate expectations in the US Actual developments and expected key rate. Daily figures

Key rate

23. Oct 03

16. Dec 03

Sources: Bloomberg, Reuters and Norges Bank

9. March 04


Annual wage growth1) and unemployment rate.Per cent. Annual figures. 1993 - 2006

0

2

4

6

1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 20050

2

4

6

1) Average for all groups. Including cost of additional vacation days

Unemployment rate, LFS

Annual wage growth

Sources: Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank


-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

16

20

72 76 80 84 88 92 96 00-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Prices for air travelAdjusted for taxes. 12-month rise.

Jan 01 - Jan 04

Productivity growth and real growth in value added in

commercial services. 2-year moving average. Annual figures. Per cent. 1972-2003


Productivity (right-hand scale)Output (left-hand scale)

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2001 2002 2003 2004-20

-10

0

10

20

30


-8,7


Real interest rate after tax.Quarterly figures. 85 Q1 - 04 Q11)

-3

0

3

6

9

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003-3

0

3

6

9

1) The figure for 2004 Q1 is preliminary

3-month rate

5-year rate



Change in employment on previous year. Per cent. Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force.

Annual figures. 1980 - 2006

0

2

4

6

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-4

-2

0

2

4


LFS unemployment(left-hand scale)

Numbers employed(right-hand scale)


0

2

4

6

Jan 03 Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 050

2

4

6

Interest rate expectations.Actual developments and expected key rate at 4 March 2004.

Daily figures

UK

Euro area

US

Norway

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank


-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-150 -100 -50 0 50 100

Change in 3-month money market rates and effective exchange rates.

23 October 2003 - 4 March 2004

Sources: Bank of England and Bloomberg

NOK

USD

CAD

CHFSEK

EUR

JPY

GBP

NZD

AUD

Interest rate change. Basis points

Exch

ange

rate

cha

nge.

Per

cen

t


Short-term money market rates 9 March 2004

3-month 6-month 12-month

NOK 1.78 1.71 1.82

EUR 2.05 2.06 2.08


I-44 since November 2003

Source: Norges Bank

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

Nov 03 Dec 03 Jan 04 Feb 04 Mar 04

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

CPIMonetary policy meeting

CPI

CPI CPI

Monetary policy meeting


Expected consumer price inflation in 5 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 - 04 Q1

0

1

2

3

4

Jun 02 Dec 02 Jun 03 Dec 030

1

2

3

4

Experts

Employer organisations

Source: TNS Gallup

Employee organisations


Expected consumer price inflation in 2 years. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 02 Q2 - 04 Q1

0

1

2

3

4

Jun 02 Dec 02 Jun 03 Dec 030

1

2

3

4

Experts

Employer organisations

Source: TNS Gallup

Employee organisations


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

91 93 95 97 99 01 030

2

4

6

8

10

12

Vacant office space in Oslo, Asker and Bærum.

Share of total market value real estate stock. As at February. 1991-2004

Source: Eiendomsspar AS

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

House prices. Monthly figures

Jan 97 - Jan 04

Sources: NEF, EFF, finn.no and ECON

Growth on previous year, 3-month moving average (right-hand scale)

NOK 1000 per square metre (left-hand scale)


Credit from domestic sources (C2)12-month rise. Jan 1998 - Jan 2004

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Credit to non-financial enterprises

Total domestic credit (C2)

Source: Norges Bank

Credit to households


-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Oct 03 Jan 04 Apr 04 Jul 04 Oct 04-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

CPI-ATE Historical developments and projections1). Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average, annualised

and 12-month rise. Oct 03 - Nov 04

Projections

1) The columns show 3-month moving average. The curve shows the 12-month rise

Historical


Documents

Executive Board meeting 11 March 2004. GDP growth in the US, Japan, the euro area and among Norway's trading partners combined. Quarterly growth. Per