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Examples of Other Par1cipa1ng Models
January 17, 2012
The Following Models will be Par1cipa1ng in LAMP
Model Ins*tute Country
ReMIND Potsdam Ins1tute (PIK) Germany
IMAGE Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
The Netherlands
WITCH Fondazione Eni Enrico MaTei (FEEM) Italy
MESSAGE Interna1onal Ins1tute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Austria
MERGE Model for Evalua1ng Regional and Global Effects of GHG Policies
USA
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Research Domain Sustainable Solutions
The ReMIND-MAgPIE Integrated Assessment Model System
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions
January 2012
Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Key Design Characteristics Model: ReMIND (Refined Model of Investment and Technological Development)
Model Type: Ramsey-type macro-economic growth model coupled to energy system model, climate box model, (agro-economic land use model MAgPIE)
Model team: Gunnar Luderer, Marian Leimbach, Nico Bauer, Tino Aboumahboub, Tabare Arroyo-Curras, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Anastasis Giannousakis, David Klein, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Robert Pietzcker, Franziska Piontek, Jana Schwanitz, Elmar Kriegler
Time Step: 5 years
Time Frame: 2005 to 2100
Solution Type: Intertemporal Optimization
Equilibrium Type: Intertemporal equilibrium of capital, energy, goods markets (Pareto optimum)
Underlying Computing Framework: GAMS
Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 5
Welfare
Labour Capital
Energy system costs
Output
Consumption Investments
Final energy
Energy transformations and conversion technologies
Fuel costs
Investment costs
Operation and Maintenance
costs
Labour efficiency Emissions
Learning by doing
Ressource and potential
constraints
Macro Economy
Energy system
Exogenous Data
Energy efficiency
Trade
Trade
Trade
Climate module
ReMIND model overview
Leimbach,Bauer, Baumstark, Edenhofer, O. (2009)
Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
ReMIND regions
USA - USA EUR - EU27 JAP - Japan CHN - China IND - India RUS - Russia AFR - Sub-Saharan Africa (excl. Republic of South Africa) MEA - Middle East, North Africa, central Asian countries OAS - Other Asia (mostly South East Asia) LAM - Latin America ROW - Rest of the World (Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Republic of South Africa, Rest of Europe).
Regional detail
Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Inputs and Outputs Key inputs • Demographics: Population by region • Economic: Labour & energy
productivity • Resources: Depletable resources by
marginal extraction cost curves (after Rogner; coal, oil, gas, uranium); Renewable resources by grade (wind on & off-shore, solar, geothermal, hydro).
• Emissions / forcing: CO, NOx, VOC, halocarbons, SF6, OC, BC
• Technology: see sketch. CCS for coal, gas, biomass-fired power
plants, coal & biomass to liquid technologies, H2 production
Key outputs • Economic: GDP, Consumption, Investment, Shadow prices, Factor shares, Trade flows • Energy: see sketch • Agriculture (via MAgPIE): Land use pattern, Production costs, Shadow prices Investment in productivity improvements • Emissions: CO2 (by source), CH4, N2O, SO2 • Climate: GHG Concentrations, Radiative Forcing, Temperature, (Ocean pH, Sea level rise)
Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugar beets
Crop yields Land & Water constraints
+200 mm-200 -100 0 +100
CCSR
ECHAM4
Climate
LPJ (50x50 km grid)
Biophysical inputs
Income vs. Food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP / Cap / Year
Kca
l / C
ap /
Day
kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values)
kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Billion
Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)
Demography
Income and diet
Food demand, production costs
Socioeconomic inputs
MAgPIE – a global land use optimisation model • spatially explicit (0.5°), 10 economic regions • 30 production activities (13 crops, livestock, irrigation, bioenergy, land conversion) • internal feed balances, international trade • endogenous land expansion • endogenous technological change
Bioenergy
Lotze-Campen , Popp et al. (2008), Agricultural Economics
Elmar Kriegler Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Land
use
dyn
amic
s
Income vs. Food consumption
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
GDP / Cap / Year
Kca
l / C
ap /
Day
kcal_cap (105 countries, 1990/2000) kcal_cap (fitted values)
kcal = 802 * gdp^(0.142327) [R^2 = 0.66]
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Billion
Low fertility, low mortality High fertility, high mortality Central fertility, central mortality (Lutz et al. 2001)
Cereals
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugar beets
Crop yields Land & Water constraints
+200 mm-200 -100 0 +100
CCSR
ECHAM4
Climate change (GCM) Demography
Income and diet
Food demand, production costs
LPJ (50x50 km grid)
Biophysical inputs
Socioeconomic inputs
Bioenergy
Lotze-Campen et al. (2008), Agricultural Economics
Land use pattern
2035
Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE Model
February 3, 2012
10
1. The IMAGE modeling Framework
February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model
11
Aim: § Dynamic and long-term perspectives on the systemic consequences of global change § Insights into the impacts of global change § A quantitative basis for analysing the relative effectiveness of various policy options addressing global change Components: § Socio-Economic System § Earth System § Policy options
2. IMAGE Regional Breakdown
February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model
12
Four Latin American regions of which two are individual countries:
1. Brazil
2. Rest of South America
3. Mexico
4. Rest of Central America
3. Reductions in 2020 for different scenarios Non-‐Annex I -‐ Reductions -‐ (GtCO2eq)
-‐2 0 2 4 6 8
Low Pledges
High Pledges
High Pledges incl.REDD in theCmarket
Two Degrees
REDD ReductionsOther ReductionsSale
Brazil -‐Reductions -‐ (GtCO2)
-‐1 0 1 2
REDD ReductionsOther Reductions
Sales
February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model
13
• 2020 emissions reductions from the pledges are too low to reach 2oC pathways • Non-Annex-1 and Brazil are sellers in all cases looked at • In Brazil, more than 80% of reduction from REDD depending on the scenario • REDD actions are conditional to different mechanisms of financing
4. LAMP model comparison/research (brainstorm)
§ Mitigation options of Latin America countries? – Land Use – Energy
› (BE)CCS › Renewables
– Non-GHG § Fossil fuel trade balance (exporting/importing) and energy security § Land use, land use change and forestry dynamics in Latin American
countries? § Can we provide insight on the competition for land due to REDD,
biofuel and food production in Latin America? § Integration of current climate policy proposals in the energy and
land use systems of IAMs § Conditions for REDD to play a major role as mitigation option
February 3, 2012 Latin American Modeling Project: The IMAGE model
14
LAMP
WITCH: model and applications
WITCH key features
• Model name: WITCH
• Number of Regions: 14
• Time Step: 5 yrs
• Model Type: Optimal growth inter-temporal optimization
• Features: Endogenous Technical Change. Game theoretic set-up
• Computing: GAMS. Parallel optimization of regions
WITCH regions
• 2 new regions (India and Indonesia) already separated out • Plans to split South America: Brasil, and maybe one more divison.
WITCH analysis in the region
CARRIED OUT SO FAR • Assessment of forestry (both deforestaJon and afforestaJon) as a
miJgaJon opJon • Specific analysis into REDD using different data sources on REDD
availability and costs (IIASA, Wood Hole, Ohio State univ.) and different policy regimes (e.g with and without internaJonal banking of permits)
INTERESTED IN CARRYING OUT • InnovaJon and technical change in clean energy and bio-‐energy • Regional South America carbon trading mechanisms • Further analysis on REDD
The MESSAGE Model
A Brief Overview and Some Recent Applications
Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, David McCollum, Yu
Nagai, Shonali Pachauri, Shilpa Rao, Keywan Riahi, Manfred Strubegger, Oscar van Vliet
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
LAMP Kick-off Meeting, 17-19 January 2012, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework
20/21
Scenario Storyline • Economic development • Demographic change • Technological change • Policies
Population
Economy
DIMA Forest Management Model
AEZ-BLS Agricultural Modeling Framework
Downscaling Tools Spatially explicit and national scenarios
MESSAGE-MACRO Systems Engineering / Macro-Economic Modeling Framework (all GHGs and all sectors)
National, regional & spatially explicit socio-economic drivers
Spatially explicit socio-economic drivers
Consistency of land-cover changes (spatially explicit maps of agricultural, urban, and forest land)
Potential and costs of forest bioenergy and sinks
Carbon and biomass price
Feedbacks
Agricultural bioenergy potentials and costs Drivers for land-use related non-CO2 emissions
Feedbacks
Global and Regional Scenarios
CLIMATE and ACIDIFICATION IMPACT MODELS
NATIONAL POLICY MODELS (GAINS)
Emissions Emissions & Abatement Costs
The MESSAGE Model ● 11 World Regions ● Time horizon: 1990-2100 in 5/10 year steps ● Systems engineering model of the global energy system ● Soft-linked with IIASA Agriculture and Forestry models ● Includes ~400 individual energy conversion and end-use
technologies ● Inter-temporal and recursive-dynamic (myopic) versions ● Cost optimization approach ● Demand response from aggregated macroeconomic
model
Regional Representation in MESSAGE
NAM PAO
WEU
EEU
FSU
MEA
AFR
LAM
SAS
PAS
CPA
1 NAM North America 2 LAM Latin America & The Caribbean 3 WEU Western Europe 4 EEU Central & Eastern Europe
5 FSU Former Soviet Union 6 MEA Middle East & North Africa 7 AFR Sub-Saharan Africa 8 CPA Centrally Planned Asia & China
9 SAS South Asia 10 PAS Other Pacific Asia 11 PAO Pacific OECD
OECD
REFS
ALM
ASIA Breaking out Brazil from Latin America Region planned
CCT
gas well Extraction Treatment
Conversion Technologies
Distribution Technologies
Final Energy
End-Use Technologies
Energy Services
coal mine
oil well
agro- forestry
gas coal bio- mass oil
power plant
refin- ery
grid/ truck grid truck
gas elect- ricity
kero- sene
air craft, light bulb, furnace, air conditioner, oven, automobile etc.
synfuel plant
grid/truck
synthetic fuel
sun- light
hydrogen plant
hydrogen
grid/ on site
Energy Conversion Sector
Primary Sources
MESSAGE: Reference Energy System
Supply Side Illustration: Low-Carbon Technologies
● Biomass Biofuels (2nd generation) Power, CHP, Heat Hydrogen Production
● Hydro power ● Wind power (onshore) ● Solar
PV CSP Solar Thermal (heat/water)
● Geothermal Power, CHP, Heat
● Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Coal- and Gas-fired Power Plants + CHP Fossil Synfuel Production Fossil H2 Production Cement Production
● Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactors Fast Breeder High Temp. Reactor
+CCS
in selected scenarios
● Natural Gas: 3 conv. + 5 unconv. categories
price response (e.g. correction of AEEI)
Iteration
Demand Side Illustration: Transportation Sector and Service Demand Response
MESSAGE
energy supply
structure
coal
natural gas IC
Gasoline/Diesel IC
fuel oil IC
ethanol IC
methanol IC
electricity
hydrogen FC
ethanol FC
methanol FC demand for
transportation
Shares and growth rates constrained
"backstop"
modal split, transitions and behavioral changes implict in
demand projection (scenario-specific)
Scenario Generator
relative efficiencies
MACRO
Prices
IC = Internal Combustion Engine FC = Fuel Cell
(2070)
• Forest land-cover is decreasing • However, deforestation is slowing down (increasing affluence - trend is more rapid in other scenarios)
RCP8.5 – Forest Cover
Source: Riahi et al., 2011, Climatic Change
0,0
0,6
1,2
1,8
2,4
3,0
3,6
4,2
Base 2005 No new policies 2030 50% Fuel Subsidy 2030
Microfinance @15% only 2030
Microfinance @15% + 50% Fuel Subsidy
2030
Popu
la*o
n in Billions
Solid Fuel Users Sub -‐ Saharan Africa Solid Fuel Users Pacific Asia Solid Fuel Users South Asia Liquid Fuel Users Sub -‐ Saharan Africa Liquid Fuel Users Pacific Asia Liquid Fuel Users South Asia
Access to
Mod
ern
Fuels
Solid
Fue
l Users
Alternative Policies to Overcome Energy Poverty
Source: Riahi et al., forthcoming, Global Energy Assessment, Methodology: Ekholm et al., 2010, Energy Policy
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
Only Energy Security Only Air Pollution and Health Only Climate Change All Three Objectives
Total G
lobal Policy C
osts (201
0-‐2030)
All objectives fulfilled at Stringent level
At least one objective fulfilled at Intermediate level
At least one objective fulfilled at Weak level
Added costs of ES and PH are comparatively low when CC is taken as an entry point
Source: McCollum et al., 2011, Nature Climate Change
An integrated approach to energy sustainability: Synergies of Multiple Objectives
Stringent
Intermediate
Weak
Fulfillment of Objective
Steven Rose [email protected]
LAMP 1st Meeting, Brazil January 17-19, 2012
MERGE & LAMP A Few Thoughts
30 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
MERGE
• Like other IAMs w/ coupled climate-economic systems
• Intertemporally optimizing
• Top-down general equilibrium representation of the economy, with nested production structure
• Bottom-up process representation of energy technologies
• Flexible regional aggregation (w/ four Central & South American regions – Brazil, Mexico, rest of middle-income, rest of low-income)
31 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Interesting areas of study for LAMP
• Potential near-term development pathways
• Current energy systems and transformation constraints
• International climate policy interactions with development objectives
Thank You!