AFFILIATIONS: Uccellini and Ten Hoeve—National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Weather Service, Silver Spring, MarylandCORRESPONDING AUTHOR: Louis W. Uccellini, louis.uccellini@noaa.gov

The abstract for this article can be found in this issue, following the table of contents.DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0159.1

In final form 30 May 2019For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy.

The vision of the NWS is to build a Weather-Ready Nation by connecting accurate and

timely forecasts and warnings to decisions that save lives and protect property.

EVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

TO BUILD A WEATHER-READY NATION

Connecting Observations, Forecasts, and Warnings to Decision-Makers through Impact-Based

Decision Support Services

loUis W. Uccellini and JoHn e. Ten Hoeve

O ver its near 150-year history, the National Weather Service (NWS) has steadily improved weather, water, and climate observations and

predictions for the United States, protecting the public from weather, water, and climate events while promot-ing national security, reducing negative economic

impacts, and increasing community resilience. The NWS mission of “providing weather, water, and climate observations, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy” was the subject of a chapter in the book Mission Mystique—Belief Systems in Public Agencies, which highlighted the unique dedication of NWS employees and their commitment to meet this mission on a 24 hours per day, 7 days per week basis (Goodsell 2011).

Today, the NWS is a science-based service orga-nization with a mission that addresses a wide range of service areas and a multitude of atmospheric and hydrologic phenomena ranging from space weather to severe storms, tropical cyclones, winter storms, fire weather, f looding, marine/oceanic storm systems, and tsunamis. The NWS operates across a domain extending from the “sun to the sea” and across nearly half of the Northern Hemisphere from Guam and

1923AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

Alaska, through the continental United States, to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. In bringing the observation and prediction capabilities to this broad range of natural phenomena, the NWS has become a critical component of the national security and emergency response framework for the United States (Stafford Act 1988). The NWS also has the unique role in the federal government for providing weather, water, and climate forecasts and warnings.

The NWS could not accomplish its mission without the important contributions of the entire weather, water, and climate enterprise. Other of-fices in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) work directly with the NWS to develop and transition new advancements into forecast operations, f ly satellites to observe our planet, and monitor and predict the physical and natural systems of the world’s coasts and oceans. Academic institutions and other federal agencies provide scientific and technological innovations and complementary observations and forecast products. America’s growing weather, water, and climate industry also plays an increasingly impor-tant role, contributing observations, models, and new tools and technologies to the enterprise, while also providing tailored forecasts and services across a multitude of sectors to meet their specific needs.

Through this public–private partnership, the NWS stimulates economic growth in the enterprise while increasing the economic resilience of the nation. Food security, energy production, supply chains, water availability, ecosystem health, and transportation systems are just some of the sectors that benefit from weather, water, and climate predictions. Roughly 3%–4% of variability in the gross domestic product (GDP) has been tied to variability in weather (Lazo et al. 2011), highlighting the importance of weather forecasts provided by the entire enterprise to the national economy.

Physical and societal factors increasing the need for weather, water, and climate information. Demand for weather, water, and climate services is increasing. The United States experiences a greater range and a larger number of extreme weather and water events than most, if not all, countries in the world. In an average year, the United States experiences 26,000 severe storms, 1,300 tornadoes, 12 Atlantic basin tropical storms, 5,000 f loods, 69,000 fires, and dozens of heavy snowstorms and blizzards (Bell et al. 2017;Na-tional Centers for Environmental Information 2018a; National Interagency Fire Center 2017). In a study conducted between 2007 and 2012, four out of five

Americans live in counties that have been declared weather-related disaster areas (Dutzik et al. 2013).

The NWS, in cooperation with the entire enter-prise, has made great strides over the last century to significantly reduce deaths and injuries due to extreme events. However, there is still progress to be made. The number of extreme weather and climate events causing at least $1 billion in economic losses has increased roughly 400% since the 1980s, adjusted for inflation (National Centers for Environmental Information 2018b). An independent analysis of U.S. loss events by Munich Re also shows an upward trend for meteorological, hydrologic, and climatological events (Fig. 1a). Furthermore, an economic impact analysis presented at the 2017, 2018, and 2019 World Economic Summits in Davos, Switzerland, concluded that extreme weather events posed the highest risk to the global economy, factoring the impact and likeli-hood of these events (Fig. 1b).

These findings indicate that extreme weather, water, and climate events present a high and increasing risk to the people of the United States, likely due to several factors. The population is growing in areas prone to tropical storms, tornadoes, inland floods, wildfires, and droughts (Wilson and Fischetti 2010). Economi-cally disadvantaged populations in these areas have a more difficult time preparing for, reacting to, and recovering from extreme events (Schultz and Elliott 2013; Deaton 2017). Aging infrastructure is less able to withstand the impact of extreme events (Melillo et al. 2014). Last, there is growing evidence that extreme weather, water, and climate events, such as heavy rainfall and droughts, are increasing in frequency and severity, while the impacts of coastal storms are also exacerbated by the impacts of rising sea levels related to our changing climate (Gleason et al. 2008; Sweet et al. 2018; U.S. Global Change Research Program 2018).

This confluence of societal and natural factors is creating a nation more vulnerable to extreme events with an increasing cost of recovery. While meteo-rologists and hydrologists are not able to influence many of the socioeconomic factors above, they can improve preparedness and responsiveness to extreme events through forecasts and warnings connected to a wide array of decisions, and in turn, reduce nega-tive economic impacts and save lives (Department of Commerce 2018). In short, we can make the nation more weather ready.

Evolving the National Weather Service to build a Weather-Ready Nation. While the nation’s vulner-ability to extreme events is growing, the accuracy and precision of weather forecasts has continuously

1924 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

improved, providing better forecasts on decision-rel-evant time scales, in some cases a week or more in advance (Bauer et al. 2015). To address the increasing demand for weather, water, and climate information and to capitalize on im-proved forecasts and warn-ings, beginning in 2011 the NWS embarked toward a vision entitled “Building a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN),” to ensure com-munities across the nation are ready, responsive, and resilient to extreme weather, water, and climate events (NWS 2019). Accordingly, the NWS is working to con-nect forecasts and warnings to life- and property-saving decisions through what has been termed “impact-based decision support services (IDSS).” This paper dis-cusses the need to evolve the NWS with an increased ur-gency, to go beyond deliver-ing forecasts and warnings, and to connect NWS prod-ucts and services with pub-lic safety decision-makers at all levels of government through IDSS, with the goal of making all communities across the United States weather ready.

THE URGENT NEED FOR CHANGE: AN INFLECTION POINT IN THE HISTORY OF THE NWS. In 1870, President Ulysses S. Grant signed into law a new weather “Signal Service” within the U.S. Army Signal Service’s Division of Telegrams and Reports for the “benefit of commerce.” The Signal Service was transferred to the Agriculture Department as the National Weather Bureau in 1890 with the pas-sage of the Organic Act, then to the Department

of Commerce in 1940, and renamed the National Weather Service in 1970. The NWS has gone through several modernizations over its history, in-cluding the most recent, highly successful, transfor-mative “modernization and associated restructuring (MAR)” that was planned in the 1980s, implemented

Fig. 1. (a) Trend in U.S. loss events due to geophysical, meteorological, hydro-logical, and climatological events (Munich Re 2018) and (b) impact–likelihood matrix of global risks from the 2017 Davos World Economic Summit (World Economic Forum 2017). In (b), note “extreme weather events” and “natural disasters” in the upper-right quadrant, indicating the highest risk and great-est likelihood of occurrence.

1925AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

through the 1990s, and officially completed in the early 2000s. The MAR fundamentally changed the NWS field office structure to ensure that rapid de-tection and timely forecasts and warnings are deliv-ered to the public while providing greater interaction with local communities (Friday 1994).

The MAR delivered a national network of Dop-pler radars [known as Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD)], Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS), modern satellites, aircraft-based observations, and a growing array of ground-based lidar, lightning networks, global positioning system (GPS) moisture sensors, and mesonets across the country. Furthermore, as part of the restructuring effort, degreed meteorologists and hydrologists with advanced training in the use of new technologies staffed the new weather forecast offices (WFOs), river forecast centers (RFCs), center weather service units (CWSUs), and national service centers (National Research Council 2012a).

With the creation of the National Centers for En-vironmental Prediction (NCEP), the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC), NCEP Central Operations (NCO), and national forecast centers were formally established within one coherent operational structure (McPherson 1994). A centerpiece of the MAR was the introduction of the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) and its NCEP counter-part, known as NAWIPS, which brought the wide array of observations and model data to the fingertips of NWS forecasters to rapidly extract the necessary information to produce forecasts and warnings across the entire United States and surrounding territo-ries (desJardins et al. 1997). Today, NWS operates na-tional centers for hurri-canes, tsunamis, climate, severe storms, marine weather, aviation weather, space weather, inland water, and general analysis and forecast products.

National Academy re-views have concluded that the NWS MAR was a re-markable success (National Research Council 2012a,b; National Academy of Pub-lic Administration 2013). One visible measure of suc-cess is the ability to extend the lead times and improve

the accuracy of tornado and f lash f lood warnings across the country, and to improve flight safety near and around developing convective systems. The lead time for most major tornadoes [enhanced Fujita (EF) scale EF3–EF5] and flash flood warnings now routinely exceed 10 and 40 min, respectively. At the same time, the model suite within the NWS has vastly improved through higher-resolution models, im-proved coupling across the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere, better data assimilation of remotely sensed and in situ observations, and multimodel ensemble forecast systems that span short-range mesoscale predictions through longer-range weather forecasts to subseasonal to seasonal forecasts.

The question facing us today is as follows: Does improving forecast and warning capabilities noted above yield the envisioned outcome, a nation more responsive to impending storms, resulting in im-proved community preparedness, fewer deaths, and faster recovery from extreme weather, water, and climate events?

The tragic 2011 severe weather season provided an answer. On 25–28 April 2011, a major tornado out-break ripped across the southeastern United States. Outlooks noting the potential of an outbreak were correctly forecast 6, 5, 4, 3, and 2 days in advance. Tornado watches were issued hours in advance and tornado warnings were issued (on average) over 20 min in advance with 95% accuracy. Table 1 com-pares this case with the well-known 3–4 April 1974 outbreak, which was similar in terms of the number of tornadoes, the total track length, and time (NOAA

Table 1. Comparison of the Apr 1974 and Apr 2011 tornado outbreaks.

Characteristics 3–4 Apr 1974 27–28 Apr 2011

Summary150 tornadoes

across 13 states~200 tornadoes across 16 states

No. and strength 6 F5 and 24 F4 tornadoes 4 EF5 and 11 EF4 tornadoes

Tornado track length ~2,500 miles ~2,500 miles

Duration of outbreak ~50 h ~50 h

Outbreak forecast

“Indications” provided night beforeWatches issued based on 1200 UTC radiosondes

Outlooks issued 4–6 days priorExtreme threat recognized 30 h in advanceWatches issued based on a wide range of data and up-dated regularlyWarnings based on Doppler radar

Warning lead timeWarnings issued when tornadoes were spotted

~24 min

Fatalities 314 316

1926 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

1974). In the 1974 outbreak, forecasts for the potential for severe weather were made only the night before, watches were issued late morning the day of the out-break based on 1200 UTC radiosonde observations, and tornado warnings were issued after tornadoes were spotted.

Despite vastly improved forecasts and warnings enabled by new science, technology, and forecast-ing techniques, nearly the same number of deaths occurred during the 2011 outbreak as compared with the 1974 outbreak (Table 1). This outcome had a profound impact on the NWS and throughout the enterprise, and suggested there was still progress to be made to improve preparation and response to impending extreme weather events.

The April 2011 tornado outbreak and the subse-quent May 2011 Joplin, Missouri, tornado outbreak that caused 158 fatalities led to a “vital conversation” on 13–15 December 2011, held in Norman, Oklahoma (Moore et al. 2012). The 3-day review involved over 175 physical and social scientists, federal and private sector meteorologists, communication experts, mem-bers of the news media, first responders, emergency managers, and other decision-makers with the goal of identifying and prioritizing actions to improve the nation’s resiliency against severe weather. The results of the meeting generated the following recommenda-tions for the NWS:

1) Assess and update NWS’s outlook, watch, and warning dissemination strategy.

2) Focus forecast and warning communications on the “last mile,” the messaging and delivery of warnings to decision-makers and the public, to ensure proper action is taken ahead of, and dur-ing, severe weather outbreaks.

3) Integrate social and physical sciences to ensure the “message delivered equals the message received,” and to encourage proper action to save lives.

4) Improve connections to decision-makers respon-sible for public safety, pointing to the need to develop stronger relationships, provide education/outreach, and continually prepare and practice before an event.

What became clear to participants was that the meteorological community was still not fully con-necting forecasts and warnings to decisions made by the wide range of decision-makers, especially public safety officials, who play a pivotal role in mitigating the loss of life and property related to extreme events. The implication was that success cannot be measured merely by the accuracy of the forecast, but also by the

usefulness of the information provided to partners, customers, and the general public as communities across the country make life- and property-saving decisions, as later noted by Palmer and Richardson (2014). These findings extend not only to severe weather, but to other meteorological and hydrologi-cal hazards as well, and offered a stark reminder to Allan Murphy’s statement published in 1993: “First it should be understood that forecasts possess no intrinsic value. They acquire value through their ability to influence the decisions made by users of the forecasts” (Murphy 1993).

The future was made clear for the NWS. We must work to better connect our forecasts and warnings to public safety officials at all levels of government and the media to reduce the negative impacts of extreme weather. While components of the NWS have been moving in this direction for years (Wernly and Uc-cellini 2000), the agency must evolve to address this strategic endeavor holistically throughout the NWS. This paradigm shift will require changes to NWS’s systems, processes, operations, workforce, and cul-ture, and include 1) transforming the way people receive, understand, and act on information in part through effective IDSS delivered to core partners in public safety and national security; 2) accelerating the operationalization of advances in observations, science, and technology; and 3) evolving the NWS to align operations, systems, and processes to the new paradigm, including through leveraging new and expanding partnerships with America’s weather, water, and climate industry; academia; and other members of the enterprise. These changes have been built into an updated NWS strategic plan for 2019-22, which helps guide the NWS toward the vision of a Weather-Ready Nation (NWS 2019).

BUILDING A WEATHER-READY NATION THROUGH IMPACT-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES. Connecting observations and forecasts to decision-making through impact-based decision support services. Building a WRN is rooted in the goal that every community becomes “ready and responsive” as an extreme weather or water event ap-proaches, taking the proper steps to prepare for—and react to—the event, saving lives, mitigating property loss, and being positioned for a quick recovery: the basis for community resiliency. To do this, NWS must deliver accurate, actionable, and consistent prepared-ness information, forecasts, and warnings mapped to key decision points in the emergency management, water resource management, and public safety com-munities through the provision of IDSS. IDSS is

1927AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

defined as “the provision of relevant information and interpretative services that enable partners to prepare for and respond to extreme weather, water, and climate events for the protection of lives and livelihoods.”

The importance of ensuring forecasts and warn-ings are understood and connected to decision pro-cesses was highlighted in reviews by the National Research Council (2012b) and the National Academy of Public Administration (2013), numerous internal NWS assessments, and a congressionally directed operations and workforce analysis by McKinsey and Company in 2015/16 (NWS 2017b). In addition, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act (2017, sections 405–410) authorizes NWS to “increase IDSS” to “state, local, and tribal emergency manage-ment agencies, and other agencies related to disaster management, to ensure a planned, coordinated, and effective preparedness and response effort.” These reviews, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act and its 2019 reauthorization, validate the need for the NWS to better connect forecasts to key decision-makers at all levels of government be-fore, during, and after extreme weather, water, and climate events.

IDSS begins well before an event through repeated in-person interactions, including tabletop exercises with core partners. Pre-event IDSS activities include developing an appreciation of the capabilities and re-sponsibilities each party brings to the table, develop-ing a shared awareness of decision thresholds estab-lished by core partners that address their public safety requirements, and a joint commitment to repeatedly practice real-world scenarios from hurricanes to fires to hazardous chemical spills. Many NWS offices hold Integrated Warning Team (IWT) meetings to conduct this critical pre-event partner engagement. These activities build trusted relationships that form the basis for successful IDSS.

IDSS provided during an event is rooted in the trusted relationships built before the event. Continuous situational awareness and two-way com-munication are critical. As the forecast is refined or as our partners’ needs change, the IDSS delivered by the NWS is adjusted accordingly. Successful IDSS requires forecasters with knowledge of local weather patterns, analogs, terrain, and impacts. IDSS may be delivered through a variety of mechanisms, includ-ing remotely through phone/video calls, webinars, social networking applications, or in person through on-site support within emergency operations centers (EOCs). Embedding NWS forecasters, who have been invited into EOCs at all levels of government,

has become a core component of NWS IDSS deliv-ery. The deployment of NWS employees to provide IDSS builds on the successful incident meteorologist (IMET) program, which for 100 years has provided on-site forecasts and decision support to command staff at wildfires and other incidents (Heffernan et al. 2013). NWS forecasters are embedded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Command Center and in the FAA’s 22 air route traffic control centers, and in Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) headquarters (HQ). NWS employees now deploy to provide IDSS to FEMA regions, Department of Homeland Security HQ, and state, county, and local EOCs. Emergency manage-ment also embeds personnel in NWS national centers, and occasionally local forecast offices. These actions have gone a long way to build the cross-government relationships and trust required for effective IDSS and improved decision-making. After a hazardous weather, water, or climate event, NWS supports recovery efforts and increasingly assists city, com-munity, and disaster planners as they update decision timelines and plans to improve their response and resilience to future events.

Challenges facing the meteorological community to provide effective impact-based decision support. The fundamental shift in the role of the operational forecaster from issuing forecasts to issuing and connecting those forecasts to decisions is being embraced across the NWS. Nevertheless, there are still a number of challenges to overcome. One of the largest challenges is the recognition that forecasts, warnings, and other informational products have been based almost entirely on physical science prin-ciples. Forecasts will occasionally take into account some societal factors (e.g., extending a warning’s timing to cover when schools are releasing students), but often do not directly account for human factors related to decision-making prior to, and during, life-threatening extreme events.

As discussed by Morss et al. (2017), addressing these human factors will require new tools and techniques, as well as products and services based on social and behavioral sciences. A 2018 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) report emphasizes that it will take a greater focus on research in the social, behavioral, decision, and communication sciences, expanding institutional capacities for the social sciences within organizations, interdisciplinary studies and research connecting the physical and social sciences, and more innovative public–private partnerships across

1928 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

the entire enterprise to improve effective response (NASEM 2018a). Another NASEM study suggested that emergency alert systems such as the Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) system and Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS) will need to evolve to include new delivery mechanisms like social media as communication channels evolve, all informed by social and behavioral science research (NASEM 2018b).

These challenges are further complicated by the spectrum of decision-makers that exist, from gov-ernment agencies to loosely coupled organizations to individuals (Wittel 2014). While some decision-makers take action based on official guidance (e.g., government agencies), other decision-makers may rely on a wider array of information including media outlets, social media, direct access to weather infor-mation, or personal contacts. To further complicate matters, in our largely decentralized democracy, the authorities, operations, and capabilities of the emergency management function vary from state to state, county to county, and even municipality to municipality. In one county, a police/fire chief or county judge may be responsible for the emergency management function. Or, there could be a dedi-cated emergency manager position that holds that authority. The function could also be decentralized to smaller municipalities, towns, or villages. In some rural towns, the emergency management function could be a portion of one’s job. In these areas, the role of the NWS is even more important as these officials depend heavily on the NWS to forecast and commu-nicate potential impacts to their communities in the face of impending extreme events.

Another challenge is understanding shifting risk preferences before, during, and after an event (Morss et al. 2017). A decision-maker’s willingness to accept risk is influenced by their knowledge, perceptions, attitudes, and experiences (e.g., with similar previ-ous extreme events) (NASEM 2018a). As an extreme event approaches, their cognitive risk perceptions and emotions change, which affects their decision-making and adds yet another layer of complexity to link predictions with decision-makers (Demuth and Morss 2018).

Finally, societal factors are pushing decision timelines further in advance, which are generating challenges with providing effective IDSS. For in-stance, as the population increases along the coast, communities are becoming more vulnerable to land-falling hurricanes and related coastal threats given the increased time it takes to prepare for, and execute, local evacuations. Forecasts are more

uncertain at longer lead times, even though they have dramatically improved over the last several de-cades (Bauer et al. 2015; Alley et al. 2019). Whether it is pre-positioning fast water rescue teams during the 2015/16 floods in the southeastern United States, utility repair crews from across the eastern United States during blizzards in 2016 and 2018, wildfire-fighting equipment during the 2017/18 wildfire seasons in the Midwest and western United States, or managing reservoirs through droughts in the west-ern and southern United States in 2012 and 2015, decision-makers must use best available predictions as a basis for their decisions sometimes a week before a possible extreme weather event or months ahead of a seasonal climate event. Meteorologists and hydrologists must also accurately communicate the related uncertainty and confidence of these long-lead-time forecasts, which are increasingly based on ensemble model forecasts (Palmer 2017), mapped to the needs of the audience.

The challenges ahead not only include communicat-ing the accuracy, uncertainty, and timeliness of the fore-casts and warnings (Wernstedt et al. 2019), but also the generation of consistent and actionable information dis-seminated through multiple outlets, including through the growing enterprise. Meeting this requirement for consistency is essential, as inconsistent and widely vary-ing information, including through social media, can impede decision processes and lessen the willingness of people to respond to emergency management directives and other calls to action (Mileti and Sorenson 1990). Yet social media also presents an opportunity for the NWS to engage with partners and the public to build relationships and trust, so that people will rely on NWS messages in the future. Studies have found that people are often more inclined to comply with a protective action recommendation if it comes from an official trusted source (often a governmental source), rather than an unofficial source (Freberg 2012 Ripberger et al. 2015). It is also important to note that consistency does not mean uniformity. While local NWS meteorologists will continue to provide local forecasts, these forecasts should strive to be congruent with forecasts from neigh-boring and national NWS offices and, if possible, with forecasts from across the enterprise to present a unified message to decision-makers.

With all of the complexities noted above, the chal-lenges loom large to effectively connect forecasts to the diverse set of decision-makers from government agencies to the public. Yet the NWS and the wider enterprise must tackle these challenges head-on if we are to succeed in building a Weather-Ready Nation. We must continue to build relationships with key

1929AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

decision-makers across federal to local levels, work to understand their decision-making needs, and incorporate social and behavioral science to deliver more decision-relevant information when and where it is needed.

EVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TO BETTER ENABLE IMPACT-BASED DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES. The NWS is evolving as an organization to meet the increasing weather, water, and climate needs of the

nation and to address the challenges noted above. The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) review provided recommendations to align resources, functions, and operations with the WRN goal (National Academy of Public Administration 2013). In response, the NWS restructured its budget, re-organized its headquarters structure, and established a new governance document in 2015 (Uccellini 2016; Uccellini et al. 2018). These efforts were commended by NAPA and established the key building blocks for future change.

The NWS subsequently contracted with McKinsey and Company in 2015/16 to perform an operations and workforce analysis (OWA) with associated recom-mendations to help guide the NWS toward its vision through a more agile, adap-tive, collaborative, and ef-fective organization (NWS 2017b). The analysis was divided into three phases (Table 2). Each phase fol-lowed a rigorous and inclu-sive process to gather input

Fig. 2. (a) Estimated unmet IDSS needs across the United States identified by the NWS OWA (NWS 2017b) and (b) location of state and local EOCs across the United States (majority of dataset is county and local sites; n = 5,895) (DHS 2009).

Table 2. Phases of the NWS Operations and Workforce Analysis.

Phase 1 (2015) Phase 2 (2015/16) Phase 3 (2017+)

Provide a baseline diagnostic assess-ment and gap analysis conducted by McKinsey and Company.

Develop ideas to address gaps identi-fied in phase 1 conducted by work-streams comprised of NWS employees and contractors in areas of workforce, operating model that includes IDSS, and organization.

Refine ideas and quantify efficiencies in NWS operations to enable IDSS through changes to workflow, organi-zational, and workforce structures, and the incorporation of new technologies; begin transition of accepted ideas to an NWS Program Management Office (PMO) for testing and implementation.

1930 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

from employees and external stakeholders. The OWA found that IDSS demand across the nation at federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial levels exceeds NWS’s resources to provide it, and NWS’s operational para-digm was not optimized for providing the increasing levels of IDSS required by our core partners. The OWA noted that 94% of NWS partner interactions and related IDSS were provided at the local level, since most public safety decisions are made locally. The OWA reinforced the need for a local, place-based NWS presence, with an understanding of local hazards, geographies, and poten-tial extreme weather, water, and climate impacts within their county warning areas. This distributed presence allows NWS employees to form trusted relationships with local decision-makers, and to provide situational awareness, forecasts, and warnings connected to local decisions that save lives and property. Figure 2a shows an estimate of the additional need for IDSS beyond what is provided today in each NWS forecast office, even as local offices evolve to meet these needs.

The OWA also confirmed that NWS’s professional workforce is highly skilled, trained, and motivated by the mission of the NWS and the strategic outcome of a WRN. The OWA noted that NWS’s overall employee motivation scores are “off the charts,” with corre-spondingly high scores for customer focus, similar to the review provided by Goodsell (2011). By and large, the motivation to serve the mission of the NWS translates into support for IDSS. Yet the analysis also discovered that to fully operationalize IDSS and meet increasing IDSS needs (Fig. 2a), NWS must move to a customer-centric paradigm, ensure a workforce properly trained to provide IDSS, and transform its workflows and operations to reduce duplication of effort and to unlock time to provide IDSS. Figure 2b shows the breadth of lo-cal and state EOCs across the United States, illus-trating one component of the potential demand for NWS IDSS.

The OWA found that the provision of IDSS can vary across the NWS in its imple-mentation. To address this, the NWS is now categoriz-ing its core partners with respect to the provision of IDSS for maximum impact (Fig. 3). Public safety of-ficials, emergency manage-ment, and water resource management partners at

the federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial levels represent the core partners with “deep relationships” to which IDSS is delivered, aligning with the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act (2017). In addition, many industry partners support this role for the NWS, while also emphasizing that industry can complement core NWS services (NWS 2017a). Through a 2018 service description document, NWS has also identified areas for which it will not provide IDSS, identifying opportunities for private sector firms to fill this market need (NWS 2018). Lines of commu-nication between the NWS and industry partners help resolve issues if they arise. Furthermore, NWS does not prevent or discourage any entity receiving IDSS to also receive services from industry or academia. NWS is also building and adopting an IDSS manage-ment system that spans all of its national, regional, and local operational offices, which will document decision thresholds and other relevant information for all core partners to which NWS provides IDSS. This tool will help link forecasts and warnings with impacts and will assist offices in providing high-quality IDSS consistently across the NWS, either through face-to-face interactions or remote information sharing and briefings. Customer experience metrics are also being developed to assess the effectiveness of our IDSS.

To address workforce skill sets needed to deliver IDSS, NWS is updating its competency models for early- and midcareer NWS forecasters to inform its hiring, promotion decisions, and training re-quirements. This new competency model takes an interdisciplinary approach, requiring forecasters to have proficiency in observation systems, gen-erating the forecast, communicating the forecast, the science and technology behind the forecast,

Fig. 3. IDSS partner categories as defined by the NWS (NWS 2018).

1931AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

and teamwork/leadership skills (Fig. 4). This com-petency model is also the basis for a new and more efficient forecaster career path recently implemented at these career levels. A cadre of NWS forecasters is also becoming qualified as “deployment ready” to serve in EOCs and other offsite locations.

A workforce with acu-men in both generating and communicating the fore-cast will need the ability to speak the technical language of meteorologists, but also translate that language into messages that encourage decision-makers and the public to take action. Best practices in forecast com-munication based on social science research will be applied by forecast offices across the country, as IDSS is tailored to the needs of local decision-makers. As part of this effort, NWS is making its hazard communications more understandable based on social science research. The ability to influence decisions to exploit the full value of the forecast will be necessary for all meteorologists across the public, private, and academic sectors of the enterprise, including NWS meteorologists.

IDSS policies, tools, skill sets, and metrics are just a few components of what it will take to evolve. To

fully position the agency for the future, the systems, processes, operations, workforce, and culture of the NWS must also evolve. Getting there will require a more intense curiosity about 1) how decision-makers in partner organizations function, 2) robust efforts to accurately capture core partner needs, 3) thresholds for key decision points, 4) the application of change management techniques, 5) a deliberate focus on NWS organizational culture and diversity, and 6) a rigorous surveillance of the environment the NWS operates within across all service areas. It will also

require new collaboration and communication/social networking technologies to better connect NWS offices with each other, and with decision-makers. Finally, it will require a more ag-ile NWS operating model based on a collaborative forecast process that en-ables IDSS at any time and any location. We do not characterize this as a new modernization of the NWS, but rather a fundamen-tal commitment to evolve over time to better connect forecasts and warnings to decisions that will save lives

Fig. 4. Proposed competency dimensions for a new competency model for NWS early- and midcareer forecasters. Each dimension consists of two to four specific competencies (not shown). The breadth of dimensions indicates the range of skills forecasters will need in the future to be successful at their jobs (NWS 2017b).

Fig. 5. Conceptual road map from the OWA. This OWA road map is being applied to changes being considered and implemented to evolve the NWS.

1932 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

and property and enhance the national economy. Figure 5 shows a simplified road map from the OWA, which has been applied to the activities described above to evolve the NWS toward the WRN vision.

INITIAL EVIDENCE SUPPORTING THE BENEFITS OF IDSS TO THE NATION AND LESSONS LEARNED. Initial supporting evidence. Based on efforts of the NWS and the larger enterprise, we are already seeing progress toward building a WRN. NWS local and regional field forecast offices and national centers have embraced IDSS as the means to connect forecasts to public safety decision-makers at all levels, within a growing collaboration with the broader enterprise, to make communities ready, responsive, and resilient. Partners are also responding favorably and adjusting their operations based on the informa-tion NWS is providing. Below are just a few examples from the growing list of IDSS success stories across multiple service areas and across the nation.

A success owed in part to IDSS is the 2017 east New Orleans tornado (Fig. 6). In New Orleans, the local NWS office had conducted over 100 outreach and preparedness activities with the city over a 4-yr period prior to the tornado, developing deep relationships with emergency managers and government officials. These connections were activated days ahead of a se-vere weather outbreak on 7 February 2017. IDSS was

provided to the emergency management community and other core partners including the media, who in turn raised awareness with schools and other public institutions. Combined with an accurate tornado warning with a 30-min lead time, no lives were lost even as the EF3 tornado ripped through New Orleans damaging many residential, commercial, and public buildings (NWS 2017c).

The 2017 hurricane season provides another ex-ample of the positive impact of improved forecasts and warnings combined with the provision of IDSS. IDSS was often provided a week or more before each storm, among other preparation activities (Table 3). For Hurricane Harvey, extreme rainfall amounts and flooding along the Texas coast were accurately forecasted and communicated roughly a week prior to the storm, which allowed life-saving assets to be pre-positioned by federal, state, and local officials, resulting in a lower loss of life. There were relatively few direct deaths (70) due to the storm (Jonkman et al. 2018), particularly when compared with previous storms marked by Hurricane Katrina with an order of magnitude more fatalities. In addition, nearly all of the fatalities from Hurricane Harvey were due to inland flooding, when in the past most fatalities were due to storm surge (Rappaport 2014), suggesting progress in communicating storm surge risks. For Hurricane Irma, the NWS correctly forecasted and

Fig. 6. (top right) Statistics, (bottom) track, and (top left) damage from the 2017 east New Orleans tornado.

1933AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

communicated a prediction implying significant im-pacts in Florida a week in advance of Irma’s eventual landfall in the Florida Keys. The governor of Florida had enough confidence in the NWS forecasts and IDSS provided from 11 days in advance that he de-clared a state of emergency 6 days in advance of Irma’s landfall, saving lives because of the advance planning and related actions made possible by the forecast.

NWS commissioned a study of the social and economic effects of severe winter storms in New York City, highlighting another example of the benefits of IDSS (Hosterman et al. 2019). The study compared the 26–27 December 2010 winter storm, where limited IDSS was delivered by the NWS, to the 2013, 2015, and 2016 winter storms where additional, more formal IDSS was delivered by the NWS. After normalizing

for storm severity and other factors, the study found that the additional IDSS likely translated into improved societal outcomes including fewer service disruptions, lower asset damages, and improved human health across the aviation, trans-portation, and energy sec-tors, especially for the 2015 and 2016 storms. In other words, IDSS provided a basis for proactive mitiga-tion actions that improved public safety and helped the economy recover more quickly after the storms. The study found that the IDSS was successful because of the trusted relationships between NWS and core emergency management partners, NWS’s under-standing of partners’ op-erational procedures and decision thresholds, and constant contact through-out the storms. Some ad-dit ional examples, and

Fig. 7. Representatives of the 39 storm-ready townships of Rhode Island, where the NWS has aligned its IDSS to the complex mechanisms of townships where local public safety decisions are made.

Table 3. Number of days in advance of landfall internal and external decision support activities took place prior to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017 and Hurricanes Florence and Michael in 2018.

Impact-based decision support services

Harvey (Aug 2017)

Irma (Aug–Sep 2017)

Maria (Sep 2017)

Florence (Sep 2018)

Michael (Oct 2018)

External partner engagements: Briefings to emergency managers

7 11 5 8 8

NWS embedded in emergency operation centers

7 6 3 9 2

“All hands on deck”: Internal staffing surge to affected offices

3 6 4 5 3

Internal collaboration calls (nation-al centers, WFOs, RFCs, CWSUs) to support consistent IDSS

4 5 4 5 5

1934 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

testimonials from NWS core partners, are provided in Table 4.

As evidence of this progress, Eric Waage, director of emergency management, Hennepin County, Minnesota, stated, “Partnership with the NWS has revolutionized this EM community from one that reacts to events to one that proactively prepares and stays ahead of the extreme events” (Waage 2016). In all of the examples above, the interactions within the entire enterprise, including America’s weather, water, and climate industry, played a critical role in the positive outcomes achieved (see more information in “The importance of partnerships with the enterprise to building a Weather-Ready Nation”).

IDSS initial lessons learned. Even as the NWS makes great strides toward providing IDSS to support build-ing a WRN, the NWS has begun cataloging lessons learned, some of which include the following:

• Local presence is essential for successful IDSS: In many ways, the introduction and initial ap-plication of IDSS has led the NWS to rediscover what de Tocqueville discovered in his 1838 book Democracy in America (de Tocqueville 1838). De Tocqueville was struck by the extraordinary complicated decentralized character of America’s public administration down to local “townships,” where most decisions associated with the public welfare are made. This is reflected in the celebra-tion recognizing Rhode Island a “storm ready” state where all 39 local townships committed to work together with the NWS to become “storm ready” (Fig. 7).

• Weather-based IDSS is different from water-based IDSS: Weather-based IDSS is often more episodic, provided over a relatively shorter time duration (days), and over a smaller area (tens to hundreds

THE IMPORTANCE OF PARTNERSHIPS WITH THE ENTERPRISE TO BUILDING A WEATHER-READY NATION

The National Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) strongly

supported the strategic outcome of a WRN, while also emphasizing that NWS cannot build a WRN alone. The NWS could not agree more. To ensure that the widest distribution of life-saving information is delivered to every segment of society, building a WRN must involve the entire weather, water, and climate enterprise working together toward this common goal, with a focus on a growing private sec-tor providing critical observations and forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act (2017) also recognizes the important role of part-nering with America’s weather, water, and climate industry and the broader enterprise.

The United States has benefited from a thriving weather services industry since the late 1940s, deliver-ing forecasts and alerts integrated with business-relevant data sources to provide value-added information to a variety of sectors including the agri-culture, energy, retail, transportation, and financial sectors, and supported by foundational observations, data, fore-casts, and warnings provided by NOAA and the NWS. Over the last decade, the industry has entered all aspects of

forecasts and warnings mapped to decision points. For these reasons, America’s weather, water, and climate industry is a large reason why the na-tion has become more weather ready over the last several decades. Going forward, continued progress will require a strong public sector and pri-vate sector operating in tandem and effectively working through challenges to meet the increasing weather, water, and climate needs of the nation.

We understand that tensions may occasionally arise between the sectors. In accordance with the NWS Fair Weather Report, we believe interac-tions between the sectors should occur regularly, and should avoid defin-ing rigid boundaries between public, private, and academic roles to ensure continual dialogue and exploration of opportunities (National Research Council 2003). NWS will continue to engage with the enterprise through NWS Partner Meetings, Service Change Notifications, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Com-mission on Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, AMS and National Weather Association (NWA) meetings, and the Environmental Information Services Working Group under the NOAA Science Advisory Board.

the weather, water, and climate value chain including observations, data analysis, environmental modeling, and service delivery, and is now valued at ~$10 billion and growing 10%–15% an-nually (NWS 2017a).

There is every reason to assume that these rapid advances will continue and even accelerate in the future. The NWS must continue to harness external capabilities through new, innovative partnerships to provide the foundational observations, data, science, technology, forecasts, and warnings that underpin the NWS mis-sion and enable a large segment of the enterprise. The NWS must also work to strengthen partnerships with the academic sector to foster new innova-tions and collaboratively develop new numerical models, observations, and other scientific advances to improve our forecasts. Because the majority of the public does not receive NWS information directly from the NWS, America’s weather, water, and climate industry is absolutely critical to build-ing a WRN through the dissemination of NWS forecasts and warnings but also the provision of additional tai-lored products and services, including holding preparedness exercises and sending site- and customer-specific

1935AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

Ta

bl

e 4

. Exa

mp

les

of e

xtre

me

even

ts, I

DS

S p

rovi

ded

, an

d te

stim

on

ials

fro

m N

WS

par

tner

s fr

om

201

5 to

201

9. T

hes

e ac

tivi

ties

sh

ow

case

th

e p

osi

tive

im

pac

t th

e N

WS

has

on

pu

blic

saf

ety

dec

isio

ns

acro

ss t

he

enti

re U

nit

ed S

tate

s an

d ac

ross

a v

arie

ty o

f haz

ard

s.

Eve

nt

IDS

S p

rovi

ded

Tes

tim

on

ials

Dec

201

5:

Sto

rm c

om

-p

lex

incl

ud

ing

seve

re w

eath

-er

, sn

ow

, an

d fl

oo

din

g

Seve

re w

eath

er a

nd t

orna

does

in T

exas

, Ari

zona

, Lou

isia

na, a

nd M

issi

ssip

pi: N

WS

prov

ided

bri

efin

gs t

o FE

MA

, sta

te, a

nd lo

cal a

genc

ies

days

to

wee

ks a

head

of t

he

even

t an

d th

roug

hout

the

eve

nt.

Snow

and

bliz

zard

con

ditio

ns in

the

Hig

h Pl

ains

: NW

S pr

ovid

ed b

rief

ings

to

FEM

A,

stat

e, a

nd lo

cal a

genc

ies

acro

ss t

he M

idw

est

days

to

wee

ks a

head

of t

he e

vent

and

th

roug

hout

the

eve

nt.

Maj

or fl

oodi

ng in

13

stat

es w

ith

Mis

sour

i esp

ecia

lly im

pact

ed. N

WS

prov

ided

bri

ef-

ings

to

fede

ral,

stat

e, a

nd lo

cal a

genc

ies

days

bef

ore

the

even

t to

mon

ths

afte

r th

e ev

ent.

“I w

ant

to fi

rst

fully

tha

nk t

he d

edic

ated

pro

fess

iona

ls h

ere

at t

he

NW

S fo

r pr

ovid

ing

us w

ith

the

mos

t up

date

d fo

reca

st b

rief

ing

this

af

tern

oon

and

for

thei

r co

ntin

ued

hard

wor

k as

par

t of

the

effo

rt t

o pr

otec

t liv

es a

nd p

rope

rty.

Fol

ks h

ere

are

incr

edib

ly p

rofe

ssio

nal.

We

rely

on

them

, and

the

y do

n’t

let

us d

own.

We

trem

endo

usly

ap-

prec

iate

, esp

ecia

lly o

ver

the

holid

ays,

how

the

y’re

alw

ays

ther

e an

d al

way

s he

lpfu

l, do

ing

the

best

the

y ca

n to

hel

p la

w e

nfor

cem

ent

and

othe

rs.”

Jay

Nix

on, g

over

nor

of M

isso

uri

Feb

201

7:

Cal

ifo

rnia

fl

oo

din

g

The

201

7 C

alifo

rnia

floo

ds w

ere

the

resu

lt of

Cal

iforn

ia’s

wet

test

win

ter

in a

lmos

t a

cent

ury.

Fol

low

ing

one

of C

alifo

rnia

’s w

orst

dro

ught

s, m

uch

of t

he r

ain

turn

ed in

to

runo

ff th

at fl

oode

d ri

vers

and

com

mun

itie

s. T

he N

WS

offic

e in

Oxn

ard,

Cal

iforn

ia,

prov

ided

ext

ensi

ve ID

SS t

o it

s co

re p

artn

ers

star

ting

at le

ast

5 da

ys p

rior

to

heav

y ra

in, h

igh

surf

, and

hig

h w

inds

exp

ecte

d on

17

Feb

2017

. Thi

s su

ppor

t in

clud

ed s

pe-

cial

em

ails

to

part

ners

and

mul

tiple

par

tner

web

inar

s pr

ovid

ing

spec

ific

info

rmat

ion

on t

he s

torm

. In

addi

tion,

the

offi

ce p

rovi

ded

num

erou

s br

iefin

gs fo

r m

ultip

le c

oun-

ty O

ffice

of E

mer

genc

y Se

rvic

es (

OES

) op

erat

iona

l cal

ls, c

ity

emer

genc

y m

anag

e-m

ent

calls

, and

cal

ls le

d by

cou

nty

fire

depa

rtm

ents

bef

ore

and

duri

ng t

he e

vent

. As

a re

sult

of t

hese

IDSS

effo

rts,

offi

cial

s se

t ev

acua

tion

orde

rs in

adv

ance

for

seve

ral

burn

sca

rs, i

nclu

ding

tho

se in

San

ta B

arba

ra, V

entu

ra, a

nd L

os A

ngel

es C

ount

ies.

“I p

artic

ular

ly w

ante

d to

tha

nk y

ou a

ll at

the

NW

S fo

r pr

ovid

ing

such

va

luab

le, t

imel

y, a

nd r

epre

sent

ativ

e fo

reca

st r

elat

ed d

etai

ls a

nd in

for-

mat

ion.

I kn

ow s

torm

fore

cast

ing

is n

ot a

lway

s ea

sy, b

ut y

ou g

uys

do

a fin

e jo

b. W

e ap

prec

iate

it.”

Sha

wn

John

son,

San

ta B

arba

ra C

ount

y Fl

ood

Con

trol

Dis

tric

t

“Tha

nks

to y

ou a

nd e

very

one

in t

he o

ffice

for

such

an

accu

rate

fo

reca

st. I

t re

ally

hel

ped

our

plan

ning

and

pro

vide

d th

e in

form

atio

n ne

cess

ary

for

our

orga

niza

tion

to r

espo

nd m

ore

effe

ctiv

ely.

We

ap-

prec

iate

the

gre

at w

ork!

” K

evin

Tay

lor,

divi

sion

chi

ef—

Ope

ratio

ns,

Mon

teci

to F

ire

Prot

ectio

n D

istr

ict

Feb

201

7:

So

uth

ern

Gre

at P

lain

s fi

res

Coo

rdin

ated

act

ion

by t

he N

WS

help

ed m

inim

ize

the

impa

ct o

f a w

ildfir

e ou

t-br

eak

in t

he s

outh

ern

Gre

at P

lain

s on

23–

24 F

eb 2

017.

NW

S lo

cal W

FOs

is-

sued

an

outl

ook

for

a po

ssib

le s

igni

fican

t fir

e ou

tbre

ak b

etw

een

17 a

nd 1

9 Fe

b w

ith

othe

r lo

cal p

artn

ers

and

the

NW

S St

orm

Pre

dict

ion

Cen

ter.

Loca

l WFO

s de

liver

ed e

lect

roni

c br

iefin

gs, i

nter

view

s, a

nd ID

SS t

o pa

rtne

rs m

akin

g de

cisi

ons

on h

ow a

nd w

here

to

depl

oy f

iref

ight

ing

equi

pmen

t an

d re

sour

ces.

As

a re

sult

, w

ildfir

e re

spon

se r

esou

rces

wer

e pr

esta

ged

to o

ptim

al a

reas

. On

23 F

eb, t

he

Nat

iona

l Wea

ther

Ser

vice

’s in

frar

ed s

atel

lite

imag

ery

utili

zing

the

Geo

stat

ion-

ary

Ope

rati

onal

Env

iron

men

tal S

atel

lite

(GO

ES)

rapi

d-sc

an c

apab

iliti

es p

rovi

ded

earl

y de

tect

ion

of p

oten

tial

ly s

igni

fican

t fir

e oc

curr

ence

s, o

ften

ser

ving

as

the

first

not

ifica

tion

of a

fir

e to

loca

l off

icia

ls. T

his

allo

wed

em

erge

ncy

man

ager

s an

d fir

efig

hter

s to

sav

e hu

ndre

ds o

f hom

es a

nd w

as t

he f

irst

eve

nt in

the

reg

ion

whe

re

stra

tegi

cally

pre

stag

ed r

esou

rces

wer

e ta

ctic

ally

rou

ted

to n

ewly

igni

ted

fires

ba

sed

on r

emot

e se

nsin

g vi

a sa

telli

te a

nd r

adar

. The

out

brea

k re

sult

ed in

33

tota

l fir

es t

hat

burn

ed 1

8,00

0 ac

res

(~73

km

2 ) a

cros

s fiv

e st

ates

.

“Thr

ee d

ays

in a

dvan

ce o

f the

[fir

e w

eath

er]

even

t, a

s co

nfid

ence

gr

ew s

tron

ger,

[NW

S] in

form

atio

n pr

ompt

ed b

oth

a di

rect

ed p

re-

pare

dnes

s an

d pr

epos

itio

n ac

tions

and

pro

duct

s...

I am

‘sto

ked’

wit

h th

e le

vel o

f pre

pare

dnes

s th

at w

e ha

d ye

ster

day.

Und

oubt

edly

, we

wer

e si

tuat

iona

lly a

war

e. T

hat

fact

con

trib

uted

mig

htily

to

succ

esse

s an

d op

port

unit

ies

of y

este

rday

... I

prep

osit

ione

d ou

r re

sour

ces

(eng

ines

, doz

ers

and

airc

raft

) to

tally

bas

ed o

n [N

WS

info

rmat

ion]

. T

he W

oodw

ard

[Tas

k Fo

rce]

res

pond

ed r

ight

wit

h [t

he fi

re d

epar

t-m

ents

], Tu

lsa

helo

s w

ere

able

to

quic

kly

get

on it

in t

he C

owet

a [f

ire]

... is

suin

g a

Fire

fight

er S

afet

y B

rief

ing,

on

and

on a

nd o

n.”

Dre

w

Dai

ly, O

klah

oma

Fore

stry

Ser

vice

s

1936 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

Aug

–Sep

20

17:

Hu

rric

ane

Har

vey

WFO

Hou

ston

is c

ollo

cate

d w

ithin

the

Gal

vest

on O

EM fa

cilit

y. T

he n

ight

pri

or t

o th

e st

orm

, a m

eteo

rolo

gist

at

the

WFO

wal

ked

dow

n th

e ha

ll to

spe

ak w

ith t

he e

mer

-ge

ncy

man

ager

and

cou

nty

judg

e, in

form

ing

them

tha

t hi

gh-r

esol

utio

n m

odel

s w

ere

indi

catin

g th

e po

tent

ial o

f up

to 2

0 in

. (~

51 c

m)

of r

ainf

all t

he fo

llow

ing

nigh

t. B

ased

on

the

info

rmat

ion

prov

ided

, the

cou

nty

imm

edia

tely

ord

ered

add

ition

al h

igh-

wat

er

and

amph

ibio

us v

ehic

les,

whi

ch w

ere

utili

zed

cont

inuo

usly

ove

r th

e ne

xt s

ever

al d

ays

as r

esid

ents

wer

e re

scue

d fr

om h

igh-

wat

er s

ituat

ions

. ID

SS p

rovi

ded

by W

FO C

orpu

s C

hris

ti al

low

ed fo

r th

e re

scue

of d

ozen

s of

peo

ple

in t

he e

ye o

f the

hur

rica

ne, n

ear

Roc

kpor

t Te

xas,

and

200

peo

ple

in t

he im

med

iate

aft

erm

ath

of t

he s

torm

.

“I a

m c

onvi

nced

tha

t [N

WS]

sav

ed h

undr

eds,

if n

ot a

tho

usan

d, li

ves

that

nig

ht a

nd t

he n

ext

seve

ral d

ays

wit

h yo

ur b

rief

ings

. The

abi

lity

to ju

st w

alk

next

doo

r, an

d th

e tr

ust

we

plac

ed in

wha

t w

e w

ere

hear

ing,

lite

rally

sav

ed m

any,

man

y liv

es.”

Gar

rett

Fos

kit,

Gal

vest

on

Cou

nty

emer

genc

y m

anag

emen

t co

ordi

nato

r“Y

ou s

aved

our

live

s! I’

m g

oing

to

tell

you

this

eve

ry t

ime

we

mee

t fo

r th

e re

st o

f my

life.

” R

ick

McL

este

r, EM

Coo

rdin

ator

for

Ara

nsas

C

ount

y

Jul 2

018:

C

alif

orn

ia

Car

r fi

re

IMET

s w

ere

depl

oyed

to t

he C

arr

fire

in Ju

l 201

8, w

hich

bur

ned

229,

000

acre

s (~

927

km2 )

an

d de

stro

yed

1,60

4 st

ruct

ures

. NW

S IM

ETs

prov

ided

on-

site

dec

isio

n su

ppor

t to

the

40

0+ fi

re p

erso

nnel

dep

loye

d to

the

sce

ne, w

hich

incl

uded

det

aile

d in

form

atio

n of

loca

l fa

ctor

s th

at c

ould

influ

ence

the

spr

ead

of t

he fi

re in

the

are

a. B

etw

een

Wes

tern

Reg

ion

HQ

and

WFO

Sac

ram

ento

, NW

S pe

rson

nel w

ere

depl

oyed

at

the

Cal

iforn

ia S

tate

Em

erge

ncy

Ope

ratio

ns C

ente

r (C

A S

OC

) for

app

roxi

mat

ely

45 d

ays

with

24/

7 su

ppor

t fo

r Ju

l–D

ec 2

018,

incl

udin

g 2

wee

ks o

f on-

site

sup

port

in la

te Ju

l dur

ing

this

fire

.

“[T

he IM

ET’s]

bri

efin

g at

the

Pla

nnin

g M

eetin

g w

as in

form

ativ

e an

d co

ncis

e (t

he k

ind

of b

rief

ing

that

a r

apid

ly e

scal

atin

g in

cide

nt r

equi

res)

. H

is [s

ubse

quen

t] r

adio

bri

efin

g w

as t

horo

ugh

in c

onte

nt w

hile

at

the

sam

e tim

e ap

prop

riat

e in

leng

th fo

r a

very

act

ive

com

man

d ch

anne

l. I

am c

erta

in t

hat

[the

IMET

] w

eath

er b

rief

ing

that

eve

ning

at

a m

inim

um

info

rmed

line

per

sonn

el o

f key

info

rmat

ion

for

thei

r sa

fety

, if n

ot s

aved

fir

st r

espo

nder

and

civ

ilian

live

s.” T

roy

Velin

, bat

talio

n ch

ief,

CA

L FI

RE

Sep

201

8:

Hu

rric

ane

Flo

ren

ce

NW

S pr

oduc

ed s

uper

b tr

ack

and

stor

m s

urge

fore

cast

s by

the

Nat

iona

l Hur

rica

ne

Cen

ter,

rain

fall

fore

cast

s by

the

Wea

ther

Pre

dict

ion

Cen

ter

and

loca

l WFO

s, a

nd

inla

nd fl

oodi

ng fo

reca

sts

by R

FCs

and

the

Nat

iona

l Wat

er C

ente

r fo

r th

is s

torm

. C

orre

spon

ding

IDSS

del

iver

ed b

y al

l of t

hese

NW

S of

fices

hel

ped

rero

ute

hund

reds

of

shi

ps o

ut o

f har

m’s

way

, pre

dict

the

loca

tion

and

timin

g of

inla

nd fl

oodi

ng, a

nd

save

cou

ntle

ss li

ves.

NW

S co

nduc

ted

emer

genc

y m

anag

emen

t br

iefin

gs t

o pa

rt-

ners

and

em

bedd

ed w

ithi

n st

ate

and

loca

l EO

Cs

8–9

days

in a

dvan

ce o

f the

sto

rm.

Nat

iona

l and

loca

l NW

S of

fices

con

tinue

d to

upd

ate

emer

genc

y m

anag

emen

t of

-fic

ials

wit

h ne

w in

form

atio

n up

to

and

thro

ugh

land

fall.

“Fee

dbac

k fr

om D

are

Cou

nty

Emer

genc

y M

anag

emen

t ca

n on

ly b

e ca

tego

rize

d as

wor

ld c

lass

dec

isio

n m

akin

g su

ppor

t fr

om u

nriv

aled

w

eath

er p

rofe

ssio

nals

tha

t en

sure

d tim

ely

and

wel

l sup

port

ed p

ublic

sa

fety

dec

isio

ns, i

nclu

ding

the

man

dato

ry e

vacu

atio

n ov

er 2

75,0

00

Dar

e C

ount

y re

side

nts

and

visi

tors

.” D

rew

Pea

rson

, dir

ecto

r, D

are

Cou

nty

Emer

genc

y M

anag

emen

t, N

orth

Car

olin

a

Dec

201

8:

Tay

lorv

ille,

Il

lino

is, t

or-

nad

o

Just

a w

eek

rem

oved

from

an

earl

y-se

ason

bliz

zard

, a la

te-s

easo

n se

vere

wea

ther

out

-br

eak

resu

lted

in s

ever

al t

orna

does

acr

oss

cent

ral a

nd s

outh

wes

tern

Illin

ois

on 1

Dec

. T

he lo

cal e

mer

genc

y m

anag

er in

Tay

lorv

ille

notif

ied

the

loca

l NW

S of

fice

in c

entr

al Il

-lin

ois

of a

par

ade

in t

he a

rea

days

in a

dvan

ce. T

he o

ffice

cal

led

the

emer

genc

y m

anag

er

to n

otify

him

tha

t th

e st

orm

wou

ld a

rriv

e w

hile

the

par

ade

was

ong

oing

and

tha

t it

had

a hi

stor

y of

pro

duci

ng t

orna

does

. Bas

ed o

n th

is k

now

ledg

e, t

he p

arad

e w

as c

alle

d of

f an

d ev

eryo

ne w

ho w

as s

ettin

g up

for

the

para

de w

as m

oved

to

shel

ter.

The

sup

erce

ll ev

entu

ally

pro

mpt

ed t

he is

suan

ce o

f a t

orna

do e

mer

genc

y an

d an

EF3

tor

nado

hit

the

para

de v

enue

with

41

min

of l

ead

time.

The

re w

ere

zero

fata

litie

s.

“To

be c

lear

, my

deci

sion

s w

ere

heav

ily b

ased

on

the

conv

ersa

tions

I ha

d w

ith t

he N

WS

Cen

tral

Illin

ois

offic

e le

adin

g up

to

the

stor

m im

-pa

ct. H

avin

g th

e N

WS

staf

f rea

dily

ava

ilabl

e to

dis

cuss

the

like

ly im

pact

an

d tim

elin

e w

as c

ruci

al. T

his

was

esp

ecia

lly im

port

ant

as h

undr

eds

of

para

de p

artic

ipan

ts w

ere

in p

lace

one

blo

ck a

way

from

wha

t en

ded

up

bein

g th

e to

rnad

o pa

th. I

n m

y vi

ew, t

he e

ntir

e de

cisi

on s

uppo

rt p

ro-

gram

you

hav

e lo

ng p

rom

oted

, wor

ked

flaw

less

ly. I

t’s c

lear

from

all

the

posi

tive

feed

back

we

have

rec

eive

d si

nce

the

Dec

embe

r 1s

t to

rnad

o ev

ent,

that

oth

er e

mer

genc

y m

anag

ers,

ele

cted

offi

cial

s, m

edia

and

the

co

mm

unity

at

larg

e sh

are

that

bel

ief.”

Mik

e C

rew

s, C

hris

tian

Cou

nty,

Ill

inoi

s, E

mer

genc

y M

anag

emen

t A

genc

y di

rect

or

Feb

2019

: Pa

cific

N

orth

wes

t sn

owfa

ll

In F

eb 2

019,

Sea

ttle

exp

erie

nced

a b

litz

of r

ecor

d-br

eaki

ng s

now

fall,

uns

een

for

deca

des,

wit

h ne

arly

2 ft

(~

61 c

m)

of s

now

falli

ng in

und

er 2

wee

ks. W

FO S

eatt

le

prov

ided

dai

ly c

onfe

renc

e ca

lls w

ith

the

city

, loc

al a

genc

ies,

and

cor

e pa

rtne

rs.

Fore

cast

ers

prov

ided

dai

ly e

-mai

l bri

efin

gs a

nd w

ebin

ars,

and

wer

e de

ploy

ed t

o th

e W

ashi

ngto

n St

ate

Dep

artm

ent

of T

rans

port

atio

n C

omm

and

Cen

ter

and

the

Cit

y of

Se

attl

e Em

erge

ncy

Ope

ratio

ns C

ente

r.

“You

r pr

oduc

ts a

nd a

vaila

bilit

y of

you

r st

aff t

o pa

rtic

ipat

e in

cal

ls

wit

h ou

r C

ity

depa

rtm

ents

and

you

r sp

ot fo

reca

sts

whe

n w

e re

-qu

este

d th

em w

ere

fant

astic

. The

y ha

ve h

elpe

d us

to

plan

bas

ed o

n go

od d

ata

and

exec

ute

bett

er a

ctio

ns—

whe

ther

tha

t is

sno

w p

low

-in

g, ic

e tr

eatm

ent,

floo

d w

atch

es o

r po

wer

out

ages

and

res

tora

tion.

” Je

nny

Dur

kan,

may

or o

f Sea

ttle

1937AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

of miles).1 Water-based IDSS is usually provided over a longer time pe-riod, extending weeks to months after the me-teorological event has ceased and over a larger area (hundreds to thou-sands of miles). Near-term climate events, such as droughts, can last even longer (months to years). These differ-ences t ranslate into different strategies and workflows for providing IDSS.

• Rural IDSS is not com-parable to urban IDSS: There are significant dif-ferences in IDSS between rural and urban areas due to differences in the built environment, the distribution of the popu-lation, and socioeconomic and cultural factors. Population density alone does not take into account areas with more transient or seasonal populations (e.g., national and state parks) or the vulnerability to hazards, which may be greater in rural areas. Emer-gency management resources are more distributed in rural areas, putting a greater demand on the NWS to support these communities before and during events. Overall, decision-making in each region, state, and county is unique, which translates into differing requirements for IDSS at each location.

• IDSS is increasingly required at longer lead times, when forecasts are more uncertain: Communicat-ing forecast uncertainties, particularly at long lead times, is an ongoing challenge. The March 2017 blizzard (i.e., early issuance of blizzard warnings for urban areas that were ultimately false alarms) and Hurricane Irma (i.e., confusion with under-standing the forecast cone of uncertainty) are two examples where NWS can continue to improve the way forecast uncertainty is accounted for at longer lead times. When forecasts are uncertain, a consistent and unified message, delivered across the NWS and the enterprise, helps to build aware-ness and drive action.

THE FULL SUITE OF ACTIVITIES NEEDED TO BUILD A WEATHER-READY NATION. The suite of activities required for producing the NWS weather, water, and climate predictions that en-able IDSS, and that in turn result in positive societal outcomes, is shown in Fig. 8. The bottom half of the hourglass in Fig. 8 represents the entire effort to provide increasingly accurate and consistent situational aware-ness and forecasts, watches, and warnings, which is the basis for the first half of the NWS mission statement: “provision of weather, water, and climate observations, forecasts, and warnings.” Core investments in obser-vations, model guidance, NWS’s One Dissemination network, and related postprocessing product delivery provide the foundation for NWS’s operational forecasts and related services. There are many ongoing activities to improve these areas, which are not discussed in this paper. As an example, the National Blend of Models (NBM) will serve as a common starting point for the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and has the potential to improve the consistency, precision, and accuracy of the NWS product suite (Glahn and Ruth 2003; Gilbert et al. 2016).

The NWS is also building a fully integrated field structure inclusive of all NWS operational offices at local, regional, and national levels. As described by Fine (2010) after the MAR, each forecast office largely operated as an island and measured their success

1 There are exceptions of course (e.g., the prolonged hurricane, fire weather support).

Fig. 8. Hourglass schematic showing the importance of IDSS for the NWS to fully realize its mission of providing observations, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and to achieve its vision of a Weather-Ready Nation that is ready, responsive, and resilient.

1938 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

solely through verification of forecasts and warnings. The NWS is shifting to a collaborative forecast pro-cess, leveraging the varied expertise across the entire organization from WFOs to CWSUs, RFCs, regional operations centers, and national centers. This will re-sult in more efficient and effective operations and will provide a basis for the consistency required in NWS products and services, particularly where multiple NWS offices serve a single jurisdiction. We are rec-ognizing that evolving the traditional forecast process to one that is more team based, and where success is measured not only by an accurate forecast, but also by a forecast that influences decisions, represents a significant culture and mindset change throughout the NWS. Social science research and concepts will be built into forecast products and services across the NWS, delivered by the integrated field structure. These forecast products will shift over time from predominately deterministic to probabilistic across all scales, across a variety of hazards (e.g., Rothfusz et al. 2018).

IDSS is the lynchpin, placed in the middle of the hourglass (Fig. 8), connecting the production of ob-servations, forecasts, and warnings with the partners and actions required for community preparedness and responsiveness to impending extreme events. A multifaceted communication strategy that includes NWS’s One Dissemination network, satellite broad-cast systems, the entire array of social media, wire-less emergency alerts, and NOAA Weather Radio ensures that NWS reaches all of our partners in pub-lic safety and national security through the weather, water, and climate enterprise, along with the general public, quickly and reliably. NWS preparedness in-formation, forecasts, and warnings are provided to a wide array of the enterprise and beyond through the 300+ storm-ready and tsunami-ready communi-ties and 9,800+ WRN ambassadors throughout the United States that act as force multipliers of NWS information to every town, community, and county across the entire United States (“Weather-Ready Na-tion Ambassadors”). It is through these connective efforts that the NWS works to build a WRN and realize its mission of saving lives and property while enhancing the nation’s economy.

While aspects of the bottom part of the hourglass lend themselves to consolidation or automation as numerical weather prediction and other forecasting tools become more advanced, the top part of the hourglass requires a place-based, distributed, and well-trained workforce across the United States to meet the IDSS needs at all government levels and to support local NWS observations and infrastructure.

We are observing what the OWA and other external reviews emphasized: local, place-based, customer-centered meteorologists and hydrologists providing IDSS to local government officials is crucial to en-suring that every county, every community, is ready, responsive, and resilient, which is key to achieving the vision of building a Weather-Ready Nation. This entire transformation is consistent with best practices in government and the direction of many federal agencies (Chenok et al. 2017).

CONCLUSIONS. Over the last decade, NWS has recognized through internal studies, external reviews, and actual events that the key to realizing the strategic

One way the National Weather Service has connected with the enterprise and beyond to organizations that

are users of weather information across the nation is through the WRN Ambassadors Initiative, created in 2013. The WRN Ambassadors Initiative weaves the en-tire weather enterprise into the fabric of local, regional, and national communities of decision-makers: addressing and ensuring awareness, preparedness, and responsive-ness to extreme weather, water, and climate events, an essential step for public safety, mitigating property loss, and accelerating recovery efforts after the event. As of August 2019, there are over 9,800 WRN ambassadors located across the entire United States, including public, commercial, and nonprofit organizations from national to local levels. Many of these ambassadors are in the private sector, including within the enterprise and others within the many economic sectors that are dependent on weather, water, and climate information. The number of WRN ambassador organizations has steadily increased, helping to ensure the WRN initiative touches every county in the United States, every day.

The heart of building a Weather-Ready Nation is taking action and improving decision-making in the face of extreme weather, water, and climate events. WRN ambassadors act as force multipliers, not only serving as an example themselves, but also engaging others to know their risk and support informed decision-making. Success stories are numerous because the initiative taps into what each ambassador organization does best. Television stations, for example, are able to access WRN outreach material and share it with their viewers. Public safety officials (e.g., police, fire, and first responders) can encourage best practices across their communities, such as having multiple sources to receive weather warnings. Working together with our WRN ambassadors, and through a whole-community approach, NWS can raise the level of preparedness and decision-making and realize the strategic outcome of a Weather-Ready Nation.

WEATHER-READY NATION AMBASSADORS

1939AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

vision of building a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) is to realize the full intrinsic value of forecasts and warnings through impact-based decision support services (IDSS). IDSS also enables NWS to fully meet its mission of pro-viding forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy. It is the lynchpin that connects NWS’s science, technol-ogy, forecasts, and warnings to the societal outcomes encapsulated within the WRN vision and the Depart-ment of Commerce’s (DOC) strategic objective for the NWS to reduce extreme weather impacts (Department of Commerce 2018). A full transformation to go beyond the provision of forecasts and warnings to providing IDSS to core partners in public safety and national secu-rity will require the NWS to evolve as an organization. It will require the NWS to move toward a more customer-centric service delivery model through changes to NWS operations, systems, workflows, culture, and workforce skill sets, all rooted in sound science and engineering. The transformation will also require building and sus-taining relationships with key governmental partners in emergency management, water resource management, and public safety and serving their needs through ac-curate and consistent forecasts and warnings across all levels of the organization.

Initial indicators suggest that NWS is well on its way toward this transformation. NWS employees by and large embrace IDSS as it aligns with their strong dedication to the NWS mission, and are actively making the changes needed to meet partner needs. Externally, the WRN vision has also been embraced by the enterprise and NWS’s parent and oversight organizations. As a testament to this support, the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act (2017) authorizes the NWS to provide IDSS across federal, state, local, tribal, and territorial levels of gov-ernment for the purposes of public safety and disaster management. While not discussed extensively in this paper, there are many exciting scientific and techno-logical advancements in the pipeline to improve the predictive capabilities and decision support services provided by the NWS. We are solidifying our efforts to serve the American public by connecting improved forecasts and warnings to life-saving decisions that enable communities to become ready, responsive, and resilient to extreme weather, water, and climate events: a Weather-Ready Nation.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We acknowledge and thank all employees of the National Weather Service, across field and headquarters offices, for embracing the NWS mission, the Weather-Ready Nation vision, and for their dedication to public service. We also thank Donna Franklin

and Douglas Hilderbrand for their support and contribu-tions during the many iterations of this manuscript. The scientific results and conclusions, as well as any views or opinions expressed herein, are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or the Depart-ment of Commerce.

REFERENCESAlley, R. B., K. A. Emanuel, and F. Zhang, 2019: Ad-

vances in weather prediction. Science, 363, 342–344, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aav7274.

Bauer, P., A. Thorpe, and G. Brunet, 2015: The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction. Nature, 525, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14956.

Bell, G. D., E. S. Blake, C. W. Landsea, C. Wang, J. Schemm, T. B. Kimberlain, R. J. Pasch, and S. B. Goldenberg, 2017: Tropical cyclones—Atlantic ba-sin [in “State of the Climate in 2016”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, S108–S112.

Chenok, D. , J . Ka mensk y, M. J . Keega n, a nd D. Piechowski, 2017: Seven drivers transform-ing government. IBM Center for the Business of Government Rep., 46 pp., www.businessof government.org/report/seven-drivers-transforming -government.

Deaton, J., 2017: Hurricane Harvey hit low-income communities hardest. Huffington Post, accessed 5 July 2018, w w w.huff ingtonpost.com/entry /hurricane-harvey-hit-low-income-communities -hardest_us_59b007ece4b0bef3378cdcba.

Demuth, J. L., and R. E. Morss, 2018: “Sometimes da #beachlife ain’t always da wave”: Understanding people’s evolving hurricane risk communication, risk assessments, and responses using Twitter nar-ratives. Wea. Climate Soc., 10, 537–560, https://doi .org/10.1175/WCAS-D-17-0126.1.

Department of Commerce, 2018: Helping the American economy grow: 2018–2022 strategic plan. Depart-ment of Commerce Rep., 36 pp.

desJardins, M. L., S. Jacobs, D. Plummer, and S. Schotz, 1997: N-AWIPS: AWIPS at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Preprints, 13th Conf. on Interactive Information and Processing Systems for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology, Long Beach, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 296–298.

de Tocqueville, A., 1838: Democracy In America. G. Dearborn and Co., 800 pp.

DHS, 2009: Homeland Security foundation-level data (HIFLD). DHS, accessed 20 June 2018, https://hif ld -geoplatform.opendata.arcgis.com/.

Dutzik, T., E. Ridlington, T. Van Heeke, and N. Willcox, 2013: In the path of the storm—Global warming,

1940 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

extreme weather and the impacts of weather-related disasters in the United States from 2007 to 2012. Environment America Research and Policy Center Rep., 55 pp.

Fine, G. A., 2010: Authors of the Storm: Meteorologists and the Culture of Prediction. University of Chicago Press, 307 pp.

Freberg, K., 2012: Intention to comply with crisis messages communicated via social media. Public Relat. Rev., 38, 416–421, https://doi.org/10.1016/j .pubrev.2012.01.008.

Friday, E. W., 1994: The modernization and associated restructuring of the National Weather Service: An overview. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 43–52, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<0043:TMAARO>2.0.CO;2.

Gilbert, K. K., J. P. Craven, T. M. Hamill, D. R. Novak, D. P. Ruth, J. Settelmaier, J. E. Sieveking, and B. Veenhuis Jr., 2016: The national blend of global models, version one. 23th Conf. on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, New Orleans, LA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1.3, https://ams.confex.com /ams/96Annual/webprogram/Paper285973.html.

Glahn, H. R., and D. P. Ruth, 2003: The new digital forecast database of the National Weather Service. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 195–202, https://doi .org/10.1175/BAMS-84-2-195.

Gleason, K. L., J. H. Lawrimore, D. H. Levinson, T. R. Karl, and D. J. Karoly, 2008: A revised U.S. climate extremes index. J. Climate, 21, 2124–2137, https://doi .org/10.1175/2007JCLI1883.1.

Goodsell, C., 2011: Mission Mystique Belief Systems in Public Agencies. CQ Press College, 358 pp.

Heffernan, R., H. Hockenberry, and L. Van Bussum, 2013: NWS incident meteorologist on-site decision support. First Symp. on Building a Weather-Ready Nation: Enhancing Our Nation’s Readiness, Respon-siveness, and Resilience to High Impact Weather Events, Austin, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 218309, https://ams.confex.com/ams/93Annual/webprogram /Paper218309.html.

Hosterman, H. R., J. K. Lazo, J. M. Sprague-Hilderbrand, and J. E. Adkins, 2019: Using the National Weather Ser-vice’s impact-based decision support services to prepare for extreme winter storms. J. Emerg. Manage., in press.

Jonkman, S. N., M. Godfroy, A. Sebastian, and B. Kolen, 2018: Brief communication: Loss of life due to Hurri-cane Harvey. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1073–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018.

Lazo, J. K., M. Lawson, P. H. Larsen, and D. M. Waldman, 2011: U.S. economic sensitivity to weather variabil-ity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 709–720, https://doi .org/10.1175/2011BAMS2928.1.

McPherson, R. D., 1994: The National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Operational climate, ocean, and weather prediction for the 21st century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 363–374, https://doi .org/10.1175/1520-0477(1994)075<0363:TNCFEP >2.0.CO;2.

Melillo, J. M., T. C. Richmond, and G. Yohe, 2014: Cli-mate Change Impacts in the United States. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 841 pp.

Mileti, D. S., and J. H. Sorenson, 1990: Communication of emergency public warnings: A social science per-spective and state-of-the-art assessment. Oak Ridge National Laboratory Rep. ORNL-6609, 166 pp.

Moore, B., and Coauthors, 2012: Weather-Ready Nation: A vital conversation on tornadoes and severe weath-er. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Rep., 20 pp., http://vintage.joss.ucar.edu/events/2012 /weather_ready_al/Summary_Report.pdf.

Morss, R. E., and Coauthors, 2017: Hazardous weather prediction and communication in the modern information environment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 98, 2653–2674, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS -D-16-0058.1.

Munich Re, 2018: Loss events in the U.S., 1980-2017. Insurance Information Institute, accessed 15 Novem-ber 2018, www.iii.org/fact-statistic/facts-statistics-us -catastrophes.

Murphy, A. H., 1993: What is a good forecast? An essay on the nature of goodness in weather fore-casting. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 281–293, https://doi .org/10.1175/1520-0434(1993)008<0281:WIAGFA >2.0.CO;2.

National Academy of Public Administration, 2013: Forecast for the future: Assuring the capacity of the National Weather Service. NAPA Rep., 137 pp.

NASEM, 2018a: Integrating Social and Behavioral Sci-ences within the Weather Enterprise. National Acad-emies Press, 198 pp., https://doi.org/10.17226/24865.

—, 2018b: Emergency Alert and Warning Systems: Current Knowledge and Future Research Directions. National Academies Press, 142 pp., https://doi.org /10.17226/24935.

National Centers for Environmental Information, 2018a: Storm events database. NOAA, accessed 31 August 2018, www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/.

—, 2018b: U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters. National Centers for Environmental Information, accessed 31 August 2018, www.ncdc .noaa.gov/billions/.

National Interagency Fire Center, 2017: Wildland fires and acres (2007-2017). National Interagency Fire Center, accessed 31 August 2018, www.nifc.gov /fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.html.

1941AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY |OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC

National Research Council, 2003: Fair Weather: Effec-tive Partnership in Weather and Climate Services. National Academies Press, 238 pp., https://doi.org /10.17226/10610.

—, 2012a: The National Weather Service Moderniza-tion and Associated Restructuring: A Retrospective Assessment. National Academies Press, 120 pp., https://doi.org/10.17226/13216.

—, 2012b: Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None. National Academies Press, 86 pp., https://doi.org/10.17226/13429.

NOAA, 1974: Storm Data. Vol. 16, No. 4, NOAA Envi-ronmental Data Service, 23 pp.

NWS, 2017a: National Weather Service enterprise analysis report. National Weather Service Rep., 24 pp., www.weather.gov/media/about/Final_NWS%20Enterprise%20Analysis%20Report_June%202017.pdf.

—, 2017b: National Weather Service operations and workforce analysis catalog. National Weather Service Rep., 132 pp., www.weather.gov/media/nws /OWA_Catalog_09072017.pdf.

—, 2017c: NWS LIX—February 7, 2017 eastern New Orleans, LA tornado. National Weather Service, accessed 1 February 2018, www.weather.gov/lix /neworleanseasttornado02072017.

—, 2018: Service description document—Impact-based decision support services for NWS core part-ners. National Weather Service Rep., 24 pp., www .nws.noaa.gov/im/IDSS_SDD_V1_0.pdf.

—, 2019: Building a Weather-Ready Nation: 2019-2022 strategic plan. NWS Rep., 28 pp., www.weather.gov /media/wrn/NWS_Weather-Ready-Nation_Strategic _Plan_2019-2022.pdf.

Palmer, T., 2017: The primacy of doubt: Evolution of numerical weather prediction from determinism to probability. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, 730–734, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000999.

—, and D. Richardson, 2014: Decisions, decisions…! ECMWF Newsletter, No. 141, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom, 12–14.

Rappaport, E. N., 2014: Fatalities in the United States from Atlantic tropical cyclones: New data and in-terpretation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95, 341–346, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1.

Ripberger, J. T., C. L. Silva, H. C. Jenkins‐Smith, D. E. Carlson, M. James, and K. G. Herron, 2015: False alarms and missed events: The impact and origins of perceived inaccuracy in tornado warning sys-tems. Risk Anal., 35, 44–56, https://doi.org/10.1111 /risa.12262.

Rothfusz, L. P., R. Schneider, D. Novak, K. Klockow-McClain, A. E. Gerard, C. Karstens, G. J. Stumpf, and T. M. Smith, 2018: FACETs: A proposed next-generation

paradigm for high-impact weather forecasting. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99, 2025–2043, https://doi .org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0100.1.

Schultz, J., and J. R. Elliott, 2013: Natural disasters and local demographic change in the United States. Popul. Environ., 34, 293–312, https://doi.org/10.1007 /s11111-012-0171-7.

Stafford Act, 1988: 42 U.S. Code Section 5196.Sweet, W. V., G. Dusek, J. Obeysekera, and J. J. Marra,

2018: Patterns and projections of high tide flooding along the U.S. coastline using a common impact threshold. NOAA Tech. Rep. NOS CO-OPS 086, 44 pp.

Uccellini, L. W., 2016: Restructuring the National Weather Service. Public Adm. Rev., 76, 842–843, https://doi.org/10.1111/puar.12633.

—, J. E. Ten Hoeve, S. Lenihan, A. J. Bleistein, C. Draggon, and M. A. Lovern, 2018: Restructuring the National Weather Service to build a Weather-Ready Nation. Global Encyclopedia of Public Adminis-tration, Public Policy, and Governance, A. Farazmand, Ed., Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319 -31816-5_3634-1.

U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2018: Fourth National Climate Assessment—Vol. II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States. U.S. Global Change Research Program, 1524 pp., https://doi .org/10.7930/NCA4.2018.

Waage, E., 2016: Keynote speaker. Northern Plains Winter Weather Workshop, St. Cloud, MN, St. Cloud Univer-sity Dept. of Atmospheric and Hydrologic Sciences.

Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act, 2017: Public Law 115-25.

Wernly, D. R., and L. W. Uccellini, 2000: Storm fore-casting for emergency response: A United States perspective. Storms, R. Pielke Jr. and R. Pielke Sr., Eds., Vol. I, Routledge, 70–97.

Wernstedt, K., P. S. Roberts, J. Arvai, and K. Redmond, 2019: How emergency managers (mis?)interpret fore-casts. Disasters, 43, 88–109, https://doi.org/10.1111 /disa.12293.

Wilson, S. G., and T. R. Fischetti, 2010: Coastline population trends in the United States: 1960 to 2008. U.S. Census Bureau Rep., 28 pp., www.census.gov /prod/2010pubs/p25-1139.pdf.

Wittel, W., 2014: Enhancing our nation’s readiness, respon-siveness, and resilience to high impact weather events. 94th AMS Annual Meeting, Atlanta, GA, Amer. Mete-or. Soc., 26745, https://ams.confex.com/ams/94Annual /videogateway.cgi/id/26745?recordingid=26745.

World Economic Forum, 2017: Four key areas for global risks in 2017. World Economic Forum, accessed 30 August 2018, www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01 /global-risks-in-2017/.

1942 | OCTOBER 2019Unauthenticated | Downloaded 02/28/21 05:04 PM UTC