Evidence supporting a skills strategy for Cornwall

Stephen HorscroftEconomic Intelligence ManagerEconomic DevelopmentEnvironment, Planning and EconomyCornwall Council

Main Purpose/discussion

• Supporting the Local Economic Assessment, Strategy and Action revision and the evolution of a Cornwall and Scilly Employment and Skills Board, Economic White paper implementation, Local Economic Partnership and appropriate regional structures

• ‘Matching people to place’• Enabling the ‘new economy’• Issues for Cornwall & Scilly, distinct or complementary to SW

• Headline Data

• Policy Issues/Context/literature review – Main Approach

• Where do we go from here?

Qualifications - 2008

• 25.5% Cornwall & Scilly working age L4+ (SW 28.3%)• 11.2% Cornwall working age – No qualifications• Economically active 28% L4+ (SW 31%)• More positive again with those in employment.• Trade apprenticeships, “about” 5% of total but falling.• Rate of decline above the UK average. • However; more about quality, scope and deliverability• Cornwall: half of those employed are L3+• By definition half are below L2 or have nothing• Cornwall: 85% have some form of qualification

Qualifications by Industry

• L4+ concentration in education, health, social work, administration and defence

• Lowest proportions in construction and retail trade and repairs. Construction may have been sustained by public sector

• Highest with no qualifications: Agriculture, hunting/forestry and fishing

Declining public sector and impact: but high productivity in Cornwall. Procurement impact of cuts.

Low carbon literacy through procurement chain Public Sector: recruitment & retention still issues Budget/access for small business to advertise and

compete/retain candidates

The role of skills in productivity

• Enabling worker/task complexity, more effectively, leading to higher value products

• Innovation and technology investment only work when linked to skilled labour.

• Skilled workers are more adaptable• April 2004-January 2008 270 graduates were

placed in 175 Cornish companies. 72% retained after 12 months increasing average business turnover by £130k in the year (source UCP)

• Strong anecdotal evidence about the inter/national profile of these companies, based mostly only in Cornwall.

• In terms of economic inactivity, Cornwall & Scilly not distinct from average NUTS2 position but not as good as some rural regions

Qualifications – Working Age Cornwall

2005 2006 2007 2008

NVQ4+ 20.5% 24.6% 27.3% 25.5%

NVQ3 only 19.8% 20.6% 18.3% 19.5%

Trade Apprenticeships

5.6% 5% 5.1% 4.6%

NVQ2 only 20.3% 18.3% 17.1% 16.7%

NVQ1 only 15% 14.5% 15% 15.3%

Other qualifications

9.4% 7% 7% 7.3%

No qualifications

9.4% 10% 10.2% 11.2%

NVQ4 2007-8 drop may be due to sample size. Upper and Lower Range. BUT . . . . . .

No Qualifications(source: SWRO)

Fig 4.2 Qualifications of economically active

NVQ4

NVQ3

Trade Apprenticeships

NVQ2

NVQ1

OtherNone

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

%

Fig 4.1: Qualifications working age - Cornwall and I sle of Scilly

NVQ4

NVQ3

TA

NVQ 2NVQ1

Other

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

%

Cornwall Comparisons

• Cornish workforce definitely under represented in L4+

• Faster rise in Cornwall in 2005/6 (possibly linked to nature of job growth at that time)

• NOW . . . . Cornwall falling behind on L4 but worryingly more consistently performing on L2 than UK and overtaken SW

• Reflecting economic structure and linking with productivity issues

• 10,000 L4+ “economically inactive”. Nothing startling compared to other regions buy MAY relate to professional retirement/relocation.

• NUTS2 regions – EA without qualifications highest in Britain

Cornwall Comparisons• Employment in Science, Technology, Engineering &

Maths (STEM) use of SSC def p58

35% in SW 28% Cornwall 30% England

• Cornwall does well: Construction skills Food/drink manufacturing & processing Process and manufacturing industries Skills for health

• Cornwall does not do well: Information technology and communications Financial Services skills Science, engineering and manufacturing

• Crucially, areas like energy and utility skills are in the balance

Implications for Cornish skills

• Environmental management• Design/planning. Policy (?)• Green negotiation skills (planning gain)• Manufacturing, construction etc

• Can we ‘home grow these’, can we train, can we diversify from existing activity?

Sectors and Spatial Priorities

• 8 identified at SW level

• 4 identified by LSC

• 6 identified in Regional Economic Strategy

• Overlap of just 2 between LSC and RES

• Criteria – ‘importance’, workforce etc

2007 Comparisons: RDA Priority sectors (blue=higher, gold=equal, red=lower)

Sector % EmploymentSW/Cornwall

GVA FTESW/Cornwall

Advanced engineering

2.1/0.4 53.2/23.0

Bio-tech 0.5/0.3 69/39.4

Creative 2.8/2.0 39.8/30.0

Environmental 1.1/1.0 57.2/35.6

Food/Drink 4.8/9.5 22.5/16.1

ICT 2.6/0.9 65.8/54.2

Leisure/Tourism 3.7/6.1 28.8/27.4

Marine 0.6/0.6 54.5/38.9

Sector balance sheet for Cornwall & Scilly (employment)

• Passenger transport• Food & Drink

manufacture & processing

• Environmental & land based

• Hospitality, travel & tourism

• Active leisure and learning

• Audio visual

• ICT• Financial Services• Science, engineering

& manufacturing• Freight logistics

Professional skills gaps

• Occupations (Managers, admin, sales)• Gaps within occupations• Impact (workload, operating costs, quality, product)• Generic: General IT, written, team, technical, problem

solving.• Source: National Employers Skills Survey for

Cornwall and Devon

• ESF appears to have largely protected Cornish training during 2008: with declines previously.

• Issues: short time working, four day weeks etc, cutting training not jobs. Some evidence (annual survey of hours and earnings) that median overtime has fallen from 5.1 hours in 2007 to 4.4 hours in 2009.

• APS: Training rates (‘in last 4 weeks’) particularly poor for production workers and men.

Knowledge economy

• Demand for graduates ‘increasing’• Need competitive edge internationally• Raised expectation of individuals• Number of SW ‘top 3’ occupational

groups vacancies (JCP) up 157% (2004-10); Cornwall & Scilly over 200%.

• Cornwall and Scilly as a proportion up from 8% to 9.4%

• Yet, challenge of retaining graduates in Cornwall/Scilly and the SW. CUC changing culture

• Source: Unlocking Cornish Potential, NOMIS, Cornwall Council Economic Intelligence

Points of emphasis with SLIM

• Cornwall & Scilly massively improving GVA performance from a low base

• Comparing changes in employment rates could well be down to sample sizes

• SLIM acknowledges that LFS data on redundancies is not reliable. Most of Cornwall and Scilly appears to be 10 or 15 and therefore not reported

• We need to better understand where vacancies are advertised (Business survey)

• Its not just the stock of unfilled vacancies, its where they are and what they are in relation to the skills base

• Manufacturing is still significant for the Cornwall and Scilly economy: in key places and in key sub sectors

• There are indications that public sector employment in Cornwall is falling faster than the national average

• Are the number of micros a surrogate for the knowledge economy? Can work hubs support these and cross fertilisation of knowledge?

Policy Issues• Definition and progress of ‘apprenticeships’. • Management and professional capacity• Access – larger firms or links between micro firms• Higher level jobs could be ‘hidden’ because of economic structure.• Cornwall doing ‘better’ on L2• What do L2&3 mean: access paths? Technical class• Loss of L4 numbers – recession, lifestyle, opportunities• Is L4+ ‘adequate’? • Harnessing ’10,000’ mentoring opportunities• Need for HQs rather than ‘branch plant’ economy (research &

development etc)• ‘Either end’ approach: employability and high level• Strategies for moving skilled/people from public to third and private

sectors: higher qualifications public sector reliant. DOTT: at risk.• Develop a sector specific approach with education and business

partners

Policy issues (continued)

• Innovation linked to business size and access to training (innovation=structure and ‘way’ of doing things).

• Need bespoke sector and size solutions• Evidence suggests under employment of

higher qualified in Cornwall & Scilly. Creating a more productive economy has special resonance in relation to Cornwall & Scilly geography.

• Inward migration has meant that we have needed to support volume of jobs rather than quality.

Green Cornwall

• Green skills key to sustainable recovery: generic vital for all course design

• Experience of THI and HERs (sustainable materials)• Increasing proficiency in energy efficiency, waste

management and transport• Experience of food processing added value• Need focus on environmental and agri technologies• Low carbon being integrated into ESF themes• Role of planning system – supply chains, role of

infrastructure, BREEAM affordability issue, environmental protection of river estuaries. Public sector leading on carbon literacy leading to greater productivity opportunity for the private sector. Green champions within TUs

• Need for strong leadership and management skills (e.g. micro accounting, project management)

Cornwall opportunities

• Creative & cultural: arts, design, creative, ICT, media, science & technology

• Advanced manufacturing emergent from low carbon economy

• High tech/high value intermediary services; domestically and throughout the world (but what is the USP for Cornwall?) Natural environment, brand, health.

Heritage led regeneration in Cornwall 1999 – 2010 (excluding St.Just)

• £15m public money, £10m private sector• 303 SMEs aided• 40k sq m residential and commercial

floorspace improved• A further 12k generated• 180 jobs created, 200 safeguarded, 283

temporary jobs created.• http://www.cornwall.gov.uk/default.aspx?

page=17388

Delivery issues

• Close to the learner (accessibility); use of OB1 funded capital projects

• Need for bespoke non qualification and flexible modular delivery

• Broadband access• Attracting people into land based

industries.• Source: SLIM 2009

Economic white paper

• Energy & environmental technologies, business efficiency and growth themes

• High emissions from Cornwall business activity• Distributed Cornwall energy services• Geographic specific need for skills e.g. Newquay

airport aerospace. Aviation academy. Specific investment opportunities. Diversification opportunities e.g. clay workers in eco town

• Cornwall College apprenticeship programme: green technologies in building standards

• Retro refit study• Eco town skills audit• Business survey

Conclusions

• Focus on ‘knowledge’, L4 and ‘employability’• ‘Training’ rates suggest drop off with recession• Focus on ‘cross cutting’ skills themes: e.g. project management• Focus on realistic ‘access’ approach• Support for individuals• Support for employers: seeing the value of training• Organisational skills audits and utilisation• High level technical apprenticeships: needs training provider

volume. Cornwall College apprenticeship programme: green technologies in building standards

• Need to understand student motivations and destinations (CUC)• Low carbon skills focused on knowledge economy. Can we compete

in all areas? Manufacturing for low carbon likely to be in diversified urban areas. LC skills are not specifically ‘low carbon’

• Generic and specific sector skills needed but specific issues around micro, multi talented nature of the Cornish economy.

Conclusions (continued)

• Develop focused, unified and relevant business survey

• Develop strong links with Cornwall Education Business Partnership

• Courses linked to local employer requirements/’apprenticeship’ approach

• Support for existing contractors in retro fitting• 2 in 5 qualified below L2 or no qualifications• L2 not always specific for the particular job. End

of ‘Train to Gain’ puts emphasis back on employer and employee funding

• Too few qualified NVQ4+• Large proportion with no qualifications in key

sectors

Strategic challenges

• Remember Stern: spend now to avoid economic/environmental costs in 2050

• Retro fitting/maintenance provides diversification opportunities for key self employed

• Manufacturing: e.g. solar panels cheap to manufacture and transfer from elsewhere (e.g. Germany) but the electrical components could be made in Cornwall.

• Business to business environmental mentoring needs bespoke solutions in micro Cornish economy

• Learner support is crucial, especially at a time of financial stress

• Generic sustainability skills needed for every profession (transferability)

• Env. Skills and awareness should be part of all apprenticeships and training (as in Australia)

• Balancing productive, green economy with enough jobs• Harnessing good practice in the social economy

Strategic challenges (continued)

• Progression from L3• Linking productivity to investment in the

workforce (STEM, leadership, higher technical & professional skills)

• Broadening intelligence base linked to micros.

• Identifying basic and advanced skills for employability.

• Prompting discussion

•?