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EVERGLADES CONNECTIVITY THROUGH THE EYES OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ESTUARIES
Susan K. Kemp – USACE Richard Alleman (Ret.) – SFWMD Patrick A. Pitts – FWS Laura Brandt – FWS David A. Rudnick – NPS-ENP Joan Browder – NOAA-NMFS Christopher Kelble – NOAA-AOML Christopher Madden – SFWMD
SCS Planning Tools
• Florida Bay • Flow • Salinity • Seagrass • Pink Shrimp • Juvenile Sea Trout • Juvenile Crocodile
• Biscayne Bay • Flow
Multi-Linear Regressions (MLR)
• Foundation for Florida Bay salinity performance measure
• Patrick Pitts presentation • Thursday @ 4:20pm (Session 83)
• Input: upland stage, winds
• Output: salinity
FWO = Future Without
ECB = Existing Conditions Base
NSM = Natural Systems Model
Alt1-4 = Alternative(s) 1-4
195,000 to 262,000 ac-ft/yr increase over FWO
Flows to Florida Bay
2,000 to 3,000 ac-ft/yr increase over FWO
T27
Ove
rlan
d Fl
ow
T23A
Ove
rlan
d Fl
ow
Seagrass
• Input: salinity, temperature, nitrogen, phosphorus
• Output: biomass (g/m2) and species composition for three Florida Bay seagrass species
Seagrass
Little Madeira Bay/Taylor River
Alt4
ECB
NSM
Time
Pink Shrimp
• Input: salinity, temperature, initial recruitment
• Output: potential harvest (kg)
Pink Shrimp
Juvenile Seatrout
• Input: turbidity, temperature, salinity, and spatial coverage and density of three species of seagrass
• Output: area of habitat suitable for juvenile spotted seatrout
Juvenile Seatrout Mean Optimal Habitat Area
ALT1 ALT2 ALT4 ALT3 ECB FWO NSM
Juvenile Seatrout
ALT1 ALT2 ALT3 ALT4
Mean % Increase Toward Target
Juvenile Crocodile
• Input: numeric score based on salinity
• Output: HSI score
Juvenile Crocodile
0.000.020.040.060.080.100.120.14
Diffe
renc
e fr
om F
WO
(Aug
-Dec
Avg
)Alt 1 Difference from FWO Alt 2 Difference from FWO
Alt 3 Difference from FWO Alt 4 Difference from FWO
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
E W
All Years
Alt1
Alt3 Alt4
Alt2
Juvenile Crocodile
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
E W Dry Year (1989)
Alt1
Alt3 Alt4 Alt2
Biscayne Bay Coastal Structure Flows Structure FWO ALT1 ALT2 ALT3 ALT4 ALT4R ALT4R1 ALT4R2
North
Central
South Central
* * * * * * * *
South
Compared to the base condition (ECB). Green=increased flows. White=less than 1% mean decrease. Yellow=1% to less than 5% mean decrease. Red=5% to less than 10% mean decrease. Purple= 10% or greater mean decrease. *Simulation not valid.
Biscayne Bay Coastal Structure Flows
Conclusions
• Sensitivity
• Connectivity
• Any more water is good
• We still need more…at the right time
Contacts
Susan Kemp – [email protected]
Southern Coastal Systems Regional Coordinators Stacie Auvenshine – [email protected] Patrick Pitts – [email protected] David Rudnick – [email protected]
Planning Tools Laura Brandt (crocodile) – [email protected] Joan Browder (pink shrimp) – [email protected] Christopher Kelble (seatrout) – [email protected] Christopher Madden (seagrass) – [email protected] Frank Marshall (salinity) - [email protected]
www.evergladesplan.org