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Eve Gruntfest
Geography and Environmental StudiesUniversity of Colorado
Colorado Springs, CO [email protected]
719 262 4058
C O M E THydromet 00-1
The 1976 Big Thompson FloodThe 1976 Big Thompson Flood
What Have
We Learned?
140 dead
new focus for next generation of policy makers and scientists involved in flood mitigation
The Big Thompson Flood 1976 The Big Thompson Flood 1976
The Big Thompson FloodThe Big Thompson Flood
Who lived?
Who died?
19861986
Signs FLASH FLOODS
are recognized as different from slow rise floods
Fewer people Real time
detection
19991999
More federal agencies flood warning
Increased vulnerability
19991999
ALERT user groups combine detection/response
Technology National Weather
Service overpromises
Dams/infrastructure Real time data
RememberRememberRememberRemember
Warnings are not a stimulus response action
People must be able to assess their own risk before they will take action
Fallacies of Warning MythsFallacies of Warning Myths
People do not panic in response to warnings
People rarely get too much information
"Cry wolf" syndrome not applicable if previous misses are understood
Public wants information from multiple sources
People actively seek to confirm risk
Scientific ComponentDetectionData Assessment PredictionInforming
Warning Process Components
HearUnderstandBelievePersonalizeDecide to ActRespond
Public Response ComponentsPublic Response Components
Warning Message ComponentsWarning Message Components
Specific actionLocationProtective behaviorTime framesSource of warnings
Warning Messages should beWarning Messages should be
Specific ConsistentAccurateClear
as to location actions to take time before impact
Advantages and Disadvantages of Warning Systems
– 17 Systems Unanticipated Problems
Sweating the small thingsSweating the small things
Redundancy Unreliable mechanical parts Weather/wildlife
Lack of maintenance fundingLack of maintenance funding
Who pays after warranty runs out? Access for gages - textbook vs.
practical access
Local commitmentLocal commitment
Local vs. state vs. federal Charismatic individuals
Wide variation in levels of protection and expenseWide variation in levels of protection and expense
$500-$5,000,000 What is reasonable per capita expense?
Are warning systems cheap payoff of rain gods?
what type of training to operate?
Who runs show?
Inconsistent level of expectation and formalization
Common Elements of SuccessCommon Elements of Success
Policy entrepreneur – someone who bases career on success of warning system
Use disaster as opportunity High tech/with high touch Look outside of common frame for
ideas and support
Social science principals that complicate warning processSocial science principals that complicate warning process
What people say and what they do may not be the same thing
The link between awareness of a hazard and taking action is not known
people continue doing what they are doing and deny threats –
panic is not typical
people must understand, believe, personalize and then respond!
Paying Off the Raingods Paying Off the Raingods
Warning systems vs. detection systems
Appropriate per capita costs? Ways of evaluating success
Alternate uses of ALERT in Ventura County, CaliforniaAlternate uses of ALERT in Ventura County, California
Determine burn index
Calculate evapotranspiration rate
Help predict landslides
Satisfy EPA weather requirements for pesticide users
Hang glider wind predictions
Research PrioritiesResearch PrioritiesResearch Priorities
Calculate warning system benefits
Conduct coordinated post-audits
Address the false alarm issue in specific leadtimes
If 28 people die in Texas was the warning a success?
Package response systems parallel to detection system packaging
Calculate appropriate actions within specific leadtimes
Clarify where scientists disagree
How can we get people OUT of their cars?
Implement a system for archiving and sharing data
Develop warning system standards
Can we convince people they are better off wet than dead?Can we convince people they are better off wet than dead?
Who or what warning agency was most credible during the 1993 Midwestern U.S. floods?
How can we convince people they are better wet than dead?How can we convince people they are better wet than dead?
The next time it rains 14 inches
in four hours will we know in advance?
