4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

Evaluation of WRF and ECMWF forecasts for Spain

L. Ramírez, J. Polo, L.F.Zarzalejo, L. Martín, A. Navarro, J. Navarro, P. Jiménez, A. Araujo, E. Garcia-Bustamante

CIEMAT (Energy department – Solar Platform of Almería)

E. Lorenz, A. Sood, K. Suselj

Oldenburg University, GermanyEnergy and Semiconductor Research Laboratory

Energy Meteorology Group

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

Objetive

1. Validate ECMWF Analisis Data (ERA-40) Global

Model.

2. ERA-40 is used as initial conditions for Mesoescale

Models for dynamic downscaling.

3. Validate Mesoescale Model with higher temporal

and spatial resolution.

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 3

ECMWF ERA-40 VALIDATION

•Data Period:1994-2004•Reanalisis data of daily Goblal Solar Radiation•Global Model•Resolution 1º ≈ 100Km

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

ECMWF ERA-40 Daily Validation Granada

MBE:-21.67% RMSE:27.20%

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

ECMWF ERA-40 Daily ValidationOviedo

MBE:-7.52% RMSE:39.55%

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 8

•Data Period:1/1/2005 – 28/2/2005•#Data: 59 days of data 1416 values.•Reanalisys of Hourly Goblal Solar Radiation•Domain Europe•Resolution 27km

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

40

45

50

55

60

65

WRF DAILY & HOURLY VALIDATION

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 9

WRF RESULTS: HOURLY

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100RMSE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting

% R

MSE

Latitude

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20MBE Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting

% M

BE

Latitude

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 10

WRF RESULTS: DAILY

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 440

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90RMSE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting

% R

MS

E

Latitude

36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20MBE Daily Solar Radiation Forecasting

% M

BE

Latitude

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 11

HOURLY VALIDATION: GRANADA 37.14º

0 500 1000 1500-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

MBE: 7.46% RMSE: 34.39%

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 12

DAILY VALIDATION: GRANADA 37.14º

Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE:9.14% RMSE:24.36%

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 13

HOURLY VALIDATION: OVIEDO 43.35º

0 500 1000 1500-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

MBE: -14.56% RMSE: 75.45%

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 14

DAILY VALIDATION: OVIEDO 43.35º

Daily Solar Radiation ForecastingMBE: -16.01% RMSE: 64.01%

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 15

SINOPTIC SITUATION 11/2/2005

12:00

Granada

OviedoWRF GHi MAP

CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO

WRF LAND/SEA

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 16

SINOPTIC SITUATION 26/2/2005

12:00

Granada

OviedoWRF GHi MAP

CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO

WRF LAND/SEA

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 17

9/2/200512:00

Granada

OviedoWRF GHi MAP

CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO

WRF LAND/SEA

SINOPTIC SITUATION 3

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007 18

SINOPTIC SITUATION 422/2/2005

12:00

Granada

OviedoWRF GHi MAP

CI FROM SATELLITEALBEDO

WRF LAND/SEA

4th Meeting IEA SHC Task 36 Hamburg 23-25 Oct 2007

Thank you