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NUINIBIR 34JULY 1982
SUSHtEELA SINGH
Evaluation of the Jamaica Fertility Survey 1975-76
INqEINATiONA 1STATISTICAL INSTIJ UTtE Permanew Office Difiector FIhuenberg 428 Prinscs BcatrixlEcm 110 Box 050 2270 AZ Vimrhm r Nethurl~inds
1 1 IIWOR ID il St lT Yi
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nd am o fetiit rersettie inenainal paabe
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Gadcs Lode U03-n A-A io
Scientific Reports
Evaluation of the Jamaica Fertility Survey 1975-76
SUSHEELA SINGH
WFS (Central SItII Internatiil StaiisticlInstitute 35 37 (Gisvcnu r(ardens
Londo SWI 0WBS UK
Contents
I INTRODUCTION 9
2 IACKGRO N) INORMATION 10
3 TINIs Of ]IIRIOR 1
4 VAI tVII()N AI RTORTINOFA 12
41 Age Reporting in the Honsehold Survey 1242 Age Repor mg in tileIndividual Survey 1543 (onipleteness of Date Reporting i
51 Socio-Iconomic Biackground of Union Groups 1852 Union Status l)ifferentials in I)at Reporting 18 53 Ouality of Reporting Ag t Iintry into First
Union 21 54 Trends in Age at Intry into Iirst Union 22 55 Internal (hcks on th QOuality of Union
History I)ata 26
6 VAI IION (t IIIt~l DAIA 33
61 Cumnulative Fcrtility 33 62 Recent Trends andl Current Level of Fertility 33 63 Cohort and Period Ferlility Rates 36 64 )ifferentials in Fertility 3865 Fertility Rates hy lirth Order 4266 Tests for Oimission of Live Births 43
7 INI ANI ANi (11111) I(OR IAIIY 46 71 Infant and Child Mortality Rates for Periods
illthe Past 4672 Comparison with Vital Registration 48
8 StmMY 49
R11I1RFNS 50
TAItIS
I )istrilmtion of Hoisehol Population by Single Years of Age indtby Sex for the Total Sampleand ir IUrhan and Rurml Sriuronps with Sex Ratios SR i 13
2 I)istrihution of Ilmschli Suvey Populationand I 70( itimu s Pit iimi hy Five-Year Age (rlhiiV With SL-X RatiS 15
3 Per (Cent i)istrihuinim 0t Wluiin Aged 15 49 acciortliig I SOtc Yca id Age Repotled ill the Inldivilu(t Inltrvie or RCsidence and Idiicatioli ( roip 1o
4 Per (Cnt l)Dtbitin of [culate Pioplulation Aged 15 41) by Five-Year Ag (rOups for JFS
3
21 I[ILIII III M
L and~VdUCH forlt L- I f IIA
IH I lI| tlr1lioli 11 (iiLll I~ cl ( Redsdec e il ll I dFI thlCAllh 1l StIll(Illt lot Illkli-
194 6 5(0 to 107 1 75Ii 1 t (c lisi AgTviduli litiVitW ii
1710I 44 t i (y itItrlli 1122 ONtib NIiiiIi - tI hiiiitii
I j c-c i t cl l nJI IllI f~II ltR) litl ih i I IIIII IlI c~l4 lrtA ve l ll j 235 V S I I
Jll d i)I t 11tIt tL ij l 1h il ill I li )e
l I dc uii n ntdl i ll li t N) l 11 vI)illi Si I I )I L t I I
t t l h1 l t it (It ilcl A w) cd I I Cshytilt i l i l (it I l t lP I c I ) Cll i llII I~ l t I 11iIlllt Jkill- 1 1 24l
i ]ltild t i ii I i I1- 1 Ltw ill
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i lt 1 - I iiI ll t l 0 I [tli 0 1 h LlIIiij th ec il ioli
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I irml (Ilifeli I Ili~Ilif lt I cill lll l h- l f it s i r(of i t-l lickd lc li l l cilo miv Yan Ir (kcpti l n (d Hi
i (t i ~ t i ici 002 cli -l ci l ii
(Ii i~ I _d ilhl 1 1 lS il c c iltl 1~ ~ i )l 7l l il P il ilitl )liltl Iil lla 7 fool() l) 1I
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5 Irtiltiilit ucs i of I)yI 1 WilIII II
hV (diunt~ LIi
I hick-Ycmi Moving Axuri guS) iivC I id IvI k L I YecarS
I )50 74 40
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
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I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
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Gadcs Lode U03-n A-A io
Scientific Reports
Evaluation of the Jamaica Fertility Survey 1975-76
SUSHEELA SINGH
WFS (Central SItII Internatiil StaiisticlInstitute 35 37 (Gisvcnu r(ardens
Londo SWI 0WBS UK
Contents
I INTRODUCTION 9
2 IACKGRO N) INORMATION 10
3 TINIs Of ]IIRIOR 1
4 VAI tVII()N AI RTORTINOFA 12
41 Age Reporting in the Honsehold Survey 1242 Age Repor mg in tileIndividual Survey 1543 (onipleteness of Date Reporting i
51 Socio-Iconomic Biackground of Union Groups 1852 Union Status l)ifferentials in I)at Reporting 18 53 Ouality of Reporting Ag t Iintry into First
Union 21 54 Trends in Age at Intry into Iirst Union 22 55 Internal (hcks on th QOuality of Union
History I)ata 26
6 VAI IION (t IIIt~l DAIA 33
61 Cumnulative Fcrtility 33 62 Recent Trends andl Current Level of Fertility 33 63 Cohort and Period Ferlility Rates 36 64 )ifferentials in Fertility 3865 Fertility Rates hy lirth Order 4266 Tests for Oimission of Live Births 43
7 INI ANI ANi (11111) I(OR IAIIY 46 71 Infant and Child Mortality Rates for Periods
illthe Past 4672 Comparison with Vital Registration 48
8 StmMY 49
R11I1RFNS 50
TAItIS
I )istrilmtion of Hoisehol Population by Single Years of Age indtby Sex for the Total Sampleand ir IUrhan and Rurml Sriuronps with Sex Ratios SR i 13
2 I)istrihution of Ilmschli Suvey Populationand I 70( itimu s Pit iimi hy Five-Year Age (rlhiiV With SL-X RatiS 15
3 Per (Cent i)istrihuinim 0t Wluiin Aged 15 49 acciortliig I SOtc Yca id Age Repotled ill the Inldivilu(t Inltrvie or RCsidence and Idiicatioli ( roip 1o
4 Per (Cnt l)Dtbitin of [culate Pioplulation Aged 15 41) by Five-Year Ag (rOups for JFS
3
21 I[ILIII III M
L and~VdUCH forlt L- I f IIA
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194 6 5(0 to 107 1 75Ii 1 t (c lisi AgTviduli litiVitW ii
1710I 44 t i (y itItrlli 1122 ONtib NIiiiIi - tI hiiiitii
I j c-c i t cl l nJI IllI f~II ltR) litl ih i I IIIII IlI c~l4 lrtA ve l ll j 235 V S I I
Jll d i)I t 11tIt tL ij l 1h il ill I li )e
l I dc uii n ntdl i ll li t N) l 11 vI)illi Si I I )I L t I I
t t l h1 l t it (It ilcl A w) cd I I Cshytilt i l i l (it I l t lP I c I ) Cll i llII I~ l t I 11iIlllt Jkill- 1 1 24l
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5 Irtiltiilit ucs i of I)yI 1 WilIII II
hV (diunt~ LIi
I hick-Ycmi Moving Axuri guS) iivC I id IvI k L I YecarS
I )50 74 40
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
Scientific Reports
Evaluation of the Jamaica Fertility Survey 1975-76
SUSHEELA SINGH
WFS (Central SItII Internatiil StaiisticlInstitute 35 37 (Gisvcnu r(ardens
Londo SWI 0WBS UK
Contents
I INTRODUCTION 9
2 IACKGRO N) INORMATION 10
3 TINIs Of ]IIRIOR 1
4 VAI tVII()N AI RTORTINOFA 12
41 Age Reporting in the Honsehold Survey 1242 Age Repor mg in tileIndividual Survey 1543 (onipleteness of Date Reporting i
51 Socio-Iconomic Biackground of Union Groups 1852 Union Status l)ifferentials in I)at Reporting 18 53 Ouality of Reporting Ag t Iintry into First
Union 21 54 Trends in Age at Intry into Iirst Union 22 55 Internal (hcks on th QOuality of Union
History I)ata 26
6 VAI IION (t IIIt~l DAIA 33
61 Cumnulative Fcrtility 33 62 Recent Trends andl Current Level of Fertility 33 63 Cohort and Period Ferlility Rates 36 64 )ifferentials in Fertility 3865 Fertility Rates hy lirth Order 4266 Tests for Oimission of Live Births 43
7 INI ANI ANi (11111) I(OR IAIIY 46 71 Infant and Child Mortality Rates for Periods
illthe Past 4672 Comparison with Vital Registration 48
8 StmMY 49
R11I1RFNS 50
TAItIS
I )istrilmtion of Hoisehol Population by Single Years of Age indtby Sex for the Total Sampleand ir IUrhan and Rurml Sriuronps with Sex Ratios SR i 13
2 I)istrihution of Ilmschli Suvey Populationand I 70( itimu s Pit iimi hy Five-Year Age (rlhiiV With SL-X RatiS 15
3 Per (Cent i)istrihuinim 0t Wluiin Aged 15 49 acciortliig I SOtc Yca id Age Repotled ill the Inldivilu(t Inltrvie or RCsidence and Idiicatioli ( roip 1o
4 Per (Cnt l)Dtbitin of [culate Pioplulation Aged 15 41) by Five-Year Ag (rOups for JFS
3
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hV (diunt~ LIi
I hick-Ycmi Moving Axuri guS) iivC I id IvI k L I YecarS
I )50 74 40
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
Contents
I INTRODUCTION 9
2 IACKGRO N) INORMATION 10
3 TINIs Of ]IIRIOR 1
4 VAI tVII()N AI RTORTINOFA 12
41 Age Reporting in the Honsehold Survey 1242 Age Repor mg in tileIndividual Survey 1543 (onipleteness of Date Reporting i
51 Socio-Iconomic Biackground of Union Groups 1852 Union Status l)ifferentials in I)at Reporting 18 53 Ouality of Reporting Ag t Iintry into First
Union 21 54 Trends in Age at Intry into Iirst Union 22 55 Internal (hcks on th QOuality of Union
History I)ata 26
6 VAI IION (t IIIt~l DAIA 33
61 Cumnulative Fcrtility 33 62 Recent Trends andl Current Level of Fertility 33 63 Cohort and Period Ferlility Rates 36 64 )ifferentials in Fertility 3865 Fertility Rates hy lirth Order 4266 Tests for Oimission of Live Births 43
7 INI ANI ANi (11111) I(OR IAIIY 46 71 Infant and Child Mortality Rates for Periods
illthe Past 4672 Comparison with Vital Registration 48
8 StmMY 49
R11I1RFNS 50
TAItIS
I )istrilmtion of Hoisehol Population by Single Years of Age indtby Sex for the Total Sampleand ir IUrhan and Rurml Sriuronps with Sex Ratios SR i 13
2 I)istrihution of Ilmschli Suvey Populationand I 70( itimu s Pit iimi hy Five-Year Age (rlhiiV With SL-X RatiS 15
3 Per (Cent i)istrihuinim 0t Wluiin Aged 15 49 acciortliig I SOtc Yca id Age Repotled ill the Inldivilu(t Inltrvie or RCsidence and Idiicatioli ( roip 1o
4 Per (Cnt l)Dtbitin of [culate Pioplulation Aged 15 41) by Five-Year Ag (rOups for JFS
3
21 I[ILIII III M
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(Ii i~ I _d ilhl 1 1 lS il c c iltl 1~ ~ i )l 7l l il P il ilitl )liltl Iil lla 7 fool() l) 1I
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I~ ~~ ~ ~gt ~ ~ ~~Ihc ( Li 11 1114 S 11111
c (Ilsl l (I ( 11~l 1 1111ic l l lti n lcl t l l l
1 i) ll ITI lIll I-0 ) J I C ( W l I o
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11~~~1 ilti11i lItl I 1)1ci I l ild 10 -0fI lc ) crll on 11)I ic
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70Lt~1| [Ile ( pgt lt -lio I li t ll t m lp1 V HIcent 4lt_2(O I ll It I 1 1fllr t R J o 111
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illd
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ald IV (
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0 0101diT lti il
I P f l t Ihi lo pk Ii 1o( It1 [ 1 1 1 )ICATc li iu ) l l
iiIi ~~~ oxli~I~lJI Ii if~ ~ I 4k (Billl I Ic Il l1()I] clitl Pe rid prhcgt1~ ~~ ~ ~ ~ lt
111t c ll~1~l ioIlI 1l l 1 1 i k ltI 1 I I lll I~lill to) 4shy
t l ) ~ r l i h ( i H - I i i gt I
1lil I 1i t~lI 1I t l ll ( l - If
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I cI_ oili llHy l Iv~i I )i ]fllhI y Sexi~itt iq I InClll IIcl~Il ~~~~~~~~ I-
l e I il i cil I 3li0it l l i ml l t I r tIl
I I mi rd [lit hidsr i t) II I I i tll i I (I I(i thi lt t11 1 cm l
dc l 1li l I l
l I i~lI r m i l I i 4 shy)ill t ldo- I l I ll l h h i l)i d cii I llltill li t I It
~l II)- d II w I i t IIi t Il shy a n-111 lt Illtgt i ~ li l ~ l
3 l( IAhIit ()t IDv il ill t II Ild YLr ol Lil 11uz s l I tol iClItISt plioi(~ t) Slint mSid tI~ iu
2 1) i I 1-i t I 1110 All W(utiun Mift (It I AIv (iriult
i Iitti 111
1
w I
1
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Subgrou ps 47
I it
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i
uicil I
vii Auv
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it
l
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39
-o Ilob)db)i IitIv I
liL iIS P)75
WI i g w it11i 1 ( )IIv Yca 1 itrt t
7okauk ital Ptvuiraitn DIt 48
5 Irtiltiilit ucs i of I)yI 1 WilIII II
hV (diunt~ LIi
I hick-Ycmi Moving Axuri guS) iivC I id IvI k L I YecarS
I )50 74 40
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
nIII I~ hI ()I II IitI I m u III l l p c Il lmalt hiilhrioHI I tI Ii I(m AI Ih I Il iCf hI IAA AI C I] I A I I ICI 01t1I tlI Iu I LjI III 11It I
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
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C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
21 I[ILIII III M
L and~VdUCH forlt L- I f IIA
IH I lI| tlr1lioli 11 (iiLll I~ cl ( Redsdec e il ll I dFI thlCAllh 1l StIll(Illt lot Illkli-
194 6 5(0 to 107 1 75Ii 1 t (c lisi AgTviduli litiVitW ii
1710I 44 t i (y itItrlli 1122 ONtib NIiiiIi - tI hiiiitii
I j c-c i t cl l nJI IllI f~II ltR) litl ih i I IIIII IlI c~l4 lrtA ve l ll j 235 V S I I
Jll d i)I t 11tIt tL ij l 1h il ill I li )e
l I dc uii n ntdl i ll li t N) l 11 vI)illi Si I I )I L t I I
t t l h1 l t it (It ilcl A w) cd I I Cshytilt i l i l (it I l t lP I c I ) Cll i llII I~ l t I 11iIlllt Jkill- 1 1 24l
i ]ltild t i ii I i I1- 1 Ltw ill
I i ll I I Illl 1 i ] 1 7 l lki i i
i it l l 1t il I vc -lti c m ll IdJ l l h ( c i i c ~
I l 11111- tIil I )I 1 i olil 1 0 R L lclll 11
i lt 1 - I iiI ll t l 0 I [tli 0 1 h LlIIiij th ec il ioli
I illllli lt ii l forI2 (i i it (T ii1 t il t I IIli I R~ia tllci- )rrlllll 2 1 2()~lllicilhI (1l- em A t i
lt ) ltl l ] h sinc ll rltlt
27 ItJ atiR i ( tol I I l xl i)IlIl Illwl I ll ftlll t~
Pe rclll 1n1 1 I 3 ii)i ( l
clt ll d l I (l f Iiv e -)tci ltllamp i lA I i i J i ldr- k Plltl g ll l I lltr iillt lilt- I il- l I 11imi I II Ih I Ii I
I irml (Ilifeli I Ili~Ilif lt I cill lll l h- l f it s i r(of i t-l lickd lc li l l cilo miv Yan Ir (kcpti l n (d Hi
i (t i ~ t i ici 002 cli -l ci l ii
(Ii i~ I _d ilhl 1 1 lS il c c iltl 1~ ~ i )l 7l l il P il ilitl )liltl Iil lla 7 fool() l) 1I
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I S I l 24 30kL l~)I I-P - i( J I i i gtI 161 1 1 i 1 00 m illI
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I~ ~~ ~ ~gt ~ ~ ~~Ihc ( Li 11 1114 S 11111
c (Ilsl l (I ( 11~l 1 1111ic l l lti n lcl t l l l
1 i) ll ITI lIll I-0 ) J I C ( W l I o
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70Lt~1| [Ile ( pgt lt -lio I li t ll t m lp1 V HIcent 4lt_2(O I ll It I 1 1fllr t R J o 111
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Int~~li I I~~ctll lliullti+f Il~ l ~ili ~ilibtli~
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i Iitti 111
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Subgrou ps 47
I it
1(0(0 W
i
uicil I
vii Auv
Lii (tlti
it
l
23n
39
-o Ilob)db)i IitIv I
liL iIS P)75
WI i g w it11i 1 ( )IIv Yca 1 itrt t
7okauk ital Ptvuiraitn DIt 48
5 Irtiltiilit ucs i of I)yI 1 WilIII II
hV (diunt~ LIi
I hick-Ycmi Moving Axuri guS) iivC I id IvI k L I YecarS
I )50 74 40
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
nIII I~ hI ()I II IitI I m u III l l p c Il lmalt hiilhrioHI I tI Ii I(m AI Ih I Il iCf hI IAA AI C I] I A I I ICI 01t1I tlI Iu I LjI III 11It I
ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
l~~~l~ t l++ i m A~dAtIII+ t l IIItIIHIm t h J h + I (hA I IIu I I H m gt x
ii11 iV iT1 I i I shyv i~i - I I I AAI II I t I i I ti III d
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l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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7 Infant and Child Mortality
ltJ]u li llti l l- 1idl e I~U Iil tmet filz ii -
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tih Ic11 ll i1 1 I 1I lfltl il )IIA lltkv declloIII
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c1t llI I It i[t t Il Ip eIl mit
v Cbt~ II C I Iq lt~IlI I I Idll It I V t Il
ih Ii l l Ii l i t l I llt I l I
t T~ l i It f t U 1 n il ll t ~1) l
il4 ) t l- II p pIlhlCAil lt i1 t l mllt~l mtlcI wt
+It 1 1Jillt t k 1d110l~l I I h lll11 I l 1 -
d id t l Itlh ItIIILlt CSi JW d
I all tw- l l I Jld Iil tl11 1 l IlittiI M 1O
1 1 t-lt 2 l
- -
1lq0
63 W15 131 71 7 3 7467
ynai
Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
II 5 I) 1 155 1 21) 2) 25 29)
I I l1 1 5) (3 ) (5) 117 ) (io) tIlI II5 35 35 75 5) 75 123
hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
li 1 44 (03) (18) bull 1 0 ((o) 10
I4i S -16 37 50 71 79) 88
lwtutt C l lII 11)1lhlcInl 1+t tlII M lit1II Ltt I h jillh
I I111 7(
i I d t h 11 l W ilh 1i1 c i I t i itl 11 lt Cl i H1i l til l shiivs Smi I i I tc l tl ltli I l c Illtt i 1t IIil ll I it ill18ll h0lt118)cill( lilllllI itpcilI+ 111 Iwll 111)1Illl~~l IIIlilt d mllill[ llll 1 I i III Illil lAt liltdlilltl llhl fill
ill 11 wdl I)AlotItt iIIkill fclill)m cjtl oI If (11hi llh (Iltwtl witl+ rlliI I l]I ltll tt+[ ]t l 1 I 1 11ll 1 1ll 11thI~ampt IK I ll+I t cli h-l111 11 1 II A dIdX I illt lilkt I I i1 l lll 11i1
ttM 1litp l cI k ( tJlll[kli [1 - 111 I)r hw l tiI i d+l IV (i 1lt lll lI p llic 1 i ll ltIc fItl( l li ii~l t t Hill liIc~ ft l 1 I il i 11+ t I hll m tc i ull c l t 1i1i l l l+ IIC
dIllip Ild 1 tillI II h llt 1it itItl~IP1id 11 1I 1 1 l11w 11) 111)+ l ( I i] t +lF I ti c +t I IId lk Ilt- dt~ 1 it l I (I+ ltt I cjl 1haill~ I +I lillMI Il
ltIt~il Iti I +P 1+ +i ) + lt+ t+hI1+ I lilli ll+ lilt ) - 11 1 t I ill 111 il+ 1 111il It
hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
3 l( IAhIit ()t IDv il ill t II Ild YLr ol Lil 11uz s l I tol iClItISt plioi(~ t) Slint mSid tI~ iu
2 1) i I 1-i t I 1110 All W(utiun Mift (It I AIv (iriult
i Iitti 111
1
w I
1
u1k
i n 11 c
i Si 1)v lPcriti ( t
17 3 C (IUli 1t
YCiiS j t
I)1i 1iir1111
1) 1 j~i 11 (d I l iIst
N ( lil I T
1 IjIini
1s
1t
SilgIl I(
I L h
)hshiiIi Iiii Vi 11 [I
lICihi V I-r iit hk
caI f B
Subgrou ps 47
I it
1(0(0 W
i
uicil I
vii Auv
Lii (tlti
it
l
23n
39
-o Ilob)db)i IitIv I
liL iIS P)75
WI i g w it11i 1 ( )IIv Yca 1 itrt t
7okauk ital Ptvuiraitn DIt 48
5 Irtiltiilit ucs i of I)yI 1 WilIII II
hV (diunt~ LIi
I hick-Ycmi Moving Axuri guS) iivC I id IvI k L I YecarS
I )50 74 40
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
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itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
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7 Infant and Child Mortality
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
II 5 I) 1 155 1 21) 2) 25 29)
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hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
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(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
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C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
Preface
One of the major objectives of tie World Fertility Survey programme is to assist the participatinw counlries in oblainshying high quality data througl national clitilitv surveys he 1i4h1 standards set by the FS are expected t) ield better quality (lata than typically obtlined il the past but thi expecrtijoit il no Wvay obviates the PCed 01 a detailCd assessIeit 01 l e qt1uality1 I e dat It is tccCOInized that sucl all evaluatiton will hot oly alerl the analsts by identifyill delcct if ally inl the data bitt alsmll y111th mow light il tle Shricolii-s of thc VIS appioacl which cal he laken inlth acco it ill the design of fUr e fertility sdrvevs
It is ill this cotext that as part of its attalysis poliy the S hlas tiitiated a syiemalic prograinine for a scienshytiflic assessilcinl 0 the quality 1 the data from each survey
While most if these studies are being carried outl by participaits roml tile coutlries Concerned within the fiamnework o workshops held ill london this study was undertaken hy a W[S stalf meiber partly in fulfiltent of the VIS ohbjective f cvaltuiiiiu all1 surveys dala hut mole specifically Ior the (arillemit Seuuinair mlt nalysis of IJiion Staitls and Iatut1es Diata IIl ill Barbhdohs in Noveniber 1979 fie tepurt was redafltcd ottce onl tihe basis of cottnnct iven at the Seminar id apain after review by WIS slaff ill uliclar Dr Shea Oscar Rutsteini coshyordiuttolr (I tile data evaluation workshops Mir ohn (leland (hief of the National Analysis Section and Dr Rbet t LiLhtbotiue cutti y co-ordillatol for Jamaica The assistance f lhese itndividuals and of participants in the 1979 Seminar in the successful completion of the work is greatly appreciat ed
I)IRK J VAN t)E KAA Project Director
7
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
nIII I~ hI ()I II IitI I m u III l l p c Il lmalt hiilhrioHI I tI Ii I(m AI Ih I Il iCf hI IAA AI C I] I A I I ICI 01t1I tlI Iu I LjI III 11It I
ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
l~~~l~ t l++ i m A~dAtIII+ t l IIItIIHIm t h J h + I (hA I IIu I I H m gt x
ii11 iV iT1 I i I shyv i~i - I I I AAI II I t I i I ti III d
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itI 1 111 Ic 1I It I I l1 1 - fI+t ii It L 1 111 1J I S m 1 S-9 )
dc 34 I 11 A ld k w i 0 IAt I I(-~tcm( c ()(gt3 ()()) ())vc
I lt l III1 11 ( II( I h ll a1 l ()q)enc ()I( o f hiIJlmT hi iite ro IclI IL- M il
l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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I 7gt 76
7 Infant and Child Mortality
ltJ]u li llti l l- 1idl e I~U Iil tmet filz ii -
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d Ilc i l I y iIltti A l I I 1 1 il l
c IiI IltII q~t I 1( 1M1 1 1 ll I I t lt lllt
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tih Ic11 ll i1 1 I 1I lfltl il )IIA lltkv declloIII
- o i Iirlttl l~i w p elll i tL1- lw h~l t_ Ilic
centIlH I tI Il tII -Ix I 111110l I t )i L l11 11
tIn s t TJl (d 111111( 0 CI it Ih t t( + ilI ltII lw id
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Cnlindfr
ll hlfe oiw h ic kiltliv hyV eaII 111t of vcl ld c ItilII() 14 h a llc 1)c lll( lll tht lillic h III l wll l l c~
i tI t t I t j I I I I II tII iitIl 11 I III
Ihi t l I
) 111h t- L I 111111I tl I I (l 1i 11 2
mlliio t h I c I )II I I CI d Il d J Ic ie
l c_[lh -li u 1
I C I t l p m cdI t gt lt Cpl l +t~l - LII ll p - c i
I 4I 1 tl A II c+ t t~ I I l I~ t 1
I)( l 1 1 t1111 t l ]I ])( Ivhlin h ildCp I i l 111 h k Illt t -
ill If l I$If II t
Iu 1 ] 1 cht t i 11111i m I I l lc1 1 iet-t
c1t llI I It i[t t Il Ip eIl mit
v Cbt~ II C I Iq lt~IlI I I Idll It I V t Il
ih Ii l l Ii l i t l I llt I l I
t T~ l i It f t U 1 n il ll t ~1) l
il4 ) t l- II p pIlhlCAil lt i1 t l mllt~l mtlcI wt
+It 1 1Jillt t k 1d110l~l I I h lll11 I l 1 -
d id t l Itlh ItIIILlt CSi JW d
I all tw- l l I Jld Iil tl11 1 l IlittiI M 1O
1 1 t-lt 2 l
- -
1lq0
63 W15 131 71 7 3 7467
ynai
Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
II 5 I) 1 155 1 21) 2) 25 29)
I I l1 1 5) (3 ) (5) 117 ) (io) tIlI II5 35 35 75 5) 75 123
hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
li 1 44 (03) (18) bull 1 0 ((o) 10
I4i S -16 37 50 71 79) 88
lwtutt C l lII 11)1lhlcInl 1+t tlII M lit1II Ltt I h jillh
I I111 7(
i I d t h 11 l W ilh 1i1 c i I t i itl 11 lt Cl i H1i l til l shiivs Smi I i I tc l tl ltli I l c Illtt i 1t IIil ll I it ill18ll h0lt118)cill( lilllllI itpcilI+ 111 Iwll 111)1Illl~~l IIIlilt d mllill[ llll 1 I i III Illil lAt liltdlilltl llhl fill
ill 11 wdl I)AlotItt iIIkill fclill)m cjtl oI If (11hi llh (Iltwtl witl+ rlliI I l]I ltll tt+[ ]t l 1 I 1 11ll 1 1ll 11thI~ampt IK I ll+I t cli h-l111 11 1 II A dIdX I illt lilkt I I i1 l lll 11i1
ttM 1litp l cI k ( tJlll[kli [1 - 111 I)r hw l tiI i d+l IV (i 1lt lll lI p llic 1 i ll ltIc fItl( l li ii~l t t Hill liIc~ ft l 1 I il i 11+ t I hll m tc i ull c l t 1i1i l l l+ IIC
dIllip Ild 1 tillI II h llt 1it itItl~IP1id 11 1I 1 1 l11w 11) 111)+ l ( I i] t +lF I ti c +t I IId lk Ilt- dt~ 1 it l I (I+ ltt I cjl 1haill~ I +I lillMI Il
ltIt~il Iti I +P 1+ +i ) + lt+ t+hI1+ I lilli ll+ lilt ) - 11 1 t I ill 111 il+ 1 111il It
hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
I IntroCkLICtioll
Ihic I ti I citilt Sulvev (IiS)w~as Conducted aIs pairt (tile I~oli[clii Iit StLIe llS ill iodci to ohtilii
TIl ILIiil IcgttCIds midt Ikictr dlet cIt fIc IC Vwis ( 1iiiiiCd Viliii th~e
t I Il nl m c tdut lcLTLIT SjLiiIldtwti s1L Iciid ill u midju I cIctLi 1IiL
t ~ 17 ill 1)i76)
Il~ iis NjTLlITttL~il t i i f)~~ ~JT~5L Xj aldil I I Tulu himidLuXll LTTV I1
T l( I ulil111T 1 I11 L LVuNCult
ilII 1ilht ~t ik 1ITIMtT ll
h 1 chold u i tljliI l 0 l 1-i It
V_ II S Ij I I litlI~UL+ d p I clit l kul ~lili SIll li pri
VIt llI 1111L (0 IIj IllTI WI ( uI holimcifldhi
Li~~~tili ItIIgt l i TIlSlI )I lclIllI~
Ill in1iiil i1 Iticitilt chjilit SlI 11ci IS hoTIIhtidoI
Ii~l~t Lii~I[T l~ 1TIilI Ice
I olIT I iulhc 51 I~ I 11 i1 il1 TI t5L TI(11
tL 1tIiw lL Idt Iit idi ii IicIliiI 51 J n ltci To ii
gt1 i I tr~l LIit I h(L T MI uItliiI2
IPiIllII I T1 II1ti-III I 151
Ii ci(li S~ i T1iTTTTlit us)tITildMlu
1() hecom MXS Ii Iu- Alll I~ 51I i
uI~~I5IIililllicil 11 Ii5 II I i ItTTiCI I]it (ll ujs i t l l 1 jIll Illiii 1111111il( lisiTS_
STh~itlS itil mt il X Sii T I ill s tTvl~l
Ttlt iSl illd ilt l IlII2 SI CLl Ill wd til l t Ti I Sc Tt
The marriage history SeCCion1 VaS radiCallN eX~IMIldC( tO collect detailed data oIL the history of paitiners and tittioti tvpjcs this niew union staiiis anid pamltics Iiislor Wals IIccd
lite Contiraceptive kitowledg andit uise sectionL so t1hat Wo~i elct iTCVICTill I lillioni w~ci ]t isketI ahTITw tutu aep
till
ThIis StlIrv is I 1isCtIIII uTTIIt ()I LtiiIttu 1111 li tiiitN Jilti IclO Ld TTTos 11111vill slippleJiTLciit oIther exisliliiL
amp11iL ]I) 1 its I s t IIti il 1 SuIITw I cti iu e )II ittoii Ib
ilhim 1()ii cspoiIsc tiills lecillimr this tV pc oIiV
5lich iil1 ia cLtTitti llIcst estIo isT cliuis ud5iscue
lite oIIlirusil ll dispj illiltl III itA tuT tL (Iimss fli7 hiTttu I o17- ( ohIliI u (1 Q71) 1ilie )uuI thlis titlysis tic tilcelic I() eslililc lilt qulalit ilw o~IscailclioI l
it) lC11TII1iT liIl c 1oit 11 whlichI thes c ll lij h j i el illoshy
flue I)leutili 11ilta isu will h~te l iih di IliiI11) m ii iili ofi
ofLI~illc icpl(tiitihIIw tilt TI ilile uTiITSiuucld surTvey
1 il l i l ChM l tl( Colljt Is Ilisl~Thi ISil sOiT tl lt iCC l
ill lcIjstU litll Checks t iCsplisSC tIljI(L whiichi Colilli he I)Iltiiltt tlTIlllilI LInlci oI tile hliselid anti
I p(ddilmluT 11)) 1 t nlot WOIlilVilLc ItTC h It ISM of 111C
S iV liliiti StiltulIle_ IIS i i Ill IWISampild~u TTt
lilfe ITTaIJ IlemcI this l aIl lliliecs 1111 UILTCIpiotlii2 ilIIilitilIhilllijts 11111 lilil iiu lilt] Ci~hi t l itliipIliSj is laid onI lte cvihiilijN (ft til iptl~ialit anil tertility dta~t iloWCVVi I2CciIISC ill tife case (It JaIlltij thCSe ie 1t1C 0051~ Iiiiti Liiis h)011 i tiliT impo~trtanice ainii li tiheir like-
Iil~ o (itvitti2 eis
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
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itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
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t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
2 Background Information
Jamaica is an island in the jiorth-west sector of tile (arib-
bean sea situated 90 Miles south of (11ba and 100 miles
west oit Ilaiti and cvers 42-13 square miles (I 1 03) square waskihiii-lIt)l Ihe ptulalimi at 31 l)ecenbci 19t7
estimlateod at 2 (I 20 0implyi il a lnse t Lal491i ll detisi
pe siss l (late mile bio illuch ()l Il t im ll is
a d i ocxliinllaimilm s mrhas fls amildt ill spaiel tci lii
-11 lE pc c tllt l 10 ertH i-Ai 3-1 I iowih 2M
11t Itl l ItIItiid n11lrl 11iClk
li i gtel ii ltt iiC 1atil
Il ot 1 thi l t i it I i Ind P(12 llc l tlitlit w i iiill - t i
I7 l ti t 5 t ci idl CIIIC4d ld i 1pli i 01 Ili sell Ciltin tihe
d tikiitt il l I t) 01d I l i tl iimil ItIL cliiiiill
Itlwi At pJt v it t
hestm IIIi vi )l lt
tii lit 1t lal Cs lot tel illl i)Iii1
J Ii 11 itv shyt 1 i il I c leiN I titill- i l t d lcc L 11
fc ld imt Ll tiai c- -liatit ll i I ll l 1 l JIi vll 1 1 ~(I)illle n t l l ) IIi ih1 1 fvt
liii I oe tlsli tliIc I()Ill I ice ldltl t 111L1
1l ( Cz ll r )- ltI Itkl th i n sII iI ] gt lt PL MIcl ded it] ) c i l) Illlh Lil h i i l
Odvw cd Ill plipttl11Mn i thl ltl Veuilt)IM 1I10I
llctu tt Cl tv d vl I II l slI ll ld l siLljij+
Ctlllc lls )1 it va lt llli-l~llm ll olhict ithl ai
1t ( lud_ t h reatI i l iC Ilt i (~CLlilic ( il la e Iulv
1 CI 2 h1111 II lld I 0II1 to S-) peltl_ (ilnl lI
976 a fall inthousand in 1960 70 to 71 per thousand in MInpowei ftmilortality that lais erted a tCadi gn d
upward lpre sli tillltes itppullatioll lowtl (Iii the
tlhe hand crude biltl 111 bave llen lisen thenl alien
c 1ain )e I pc s aislialw iilclccll Cii(dc birll
fate il 3) pel Itotisaitld dcclllll to 79 d llill 1I1
21 11 it 1 dlii l It(110 7I( decade Ihcl_ 1hw kIllitucl it) ciudc billil Ii l 213 to lie tC 197)0
V2p6wlIi hi hl (0 d ll lilllttitihit and lii etual-IIiIi - w itilit illiilali iAi itoii 1ies have itcillhiel
lssl liclllici ilioll ill stollicilti ilii_ hibeeii lIIl i i t i c iiiim ii llai ii il tilel ween
Il l 71) 1M h t-vciilwi etpecii 0itmt 53 llm Ble
d de ctit
ii lllt tmliL 2t itclii ii illt lillt li
Jtt lh tili l - o i iclh isbti tl 1 ilesalldlat lilttl
lit i it1iiii c O)uColi u d hli tad I (clth y ll lhAIi
ad es dllitti 70 ti imil d t p m pc I cent Co
ill Id tll I Itih e 0 H t itI ) e cIC ll lItd it ilot w crw Im
eIt lliinIth l ec ()I CdII I1 il l k tlil C1l4h A1110 H Ihe I11111C
cc )I leiI III(Ii tI(IiIiiit I I I I c I
pc i kin iil i pa mi ci Imd m) sc )li i dl Ait wi)llen Iw l I 1 11alealst I )Ill Its of plillm il
sdhm din~ll m d tmII wIILillcil ]m itlsl I 90 ptl Celli did So
( il h k hil1h Icvd (d litclaC Jlld edlic1tion w e w w lld
Cx l t lepollill I dates 1 11iev itlt lo he In olllbly
c
This clip~ ~ UW 1is1s 1 Irll l tidllldl Ih Tfility Slrlvy~ C lr~t
t 75 7ti 1 Si tiuryt IIiilitt WtIS 1IY I
10
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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7 Infant and Child Mortality
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kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
3 Types of Error
As noted pieviarsly data c(llected lill el rpective ertility surevs nma he itlced b various Ivps tof ciiai vhich Ina fis dis loeAsureS sc c ltrs ariscrenat plhic loim 1irii rrrcc xiich ar iriltt in tll dc trl (d the iettn dii knadcidk at iit tiee raideitn ilkl tIjii tl the Il li liii c iieir r h r mat
ii bcYts i rct~rori i ilil] lhli W c lt Mn al l pesi kIitijk 1 t i Il f1 iria I0 t
I 11ki i )l ltIIt (11 th I IT 111 l I es p )]l(ampel I
1 gtir t il e1t d di plhlicii [ I amplIcs oi vitalV i
Mkirponl-fill ofl - t 14RciI( olIa-s
lxNpa - ax tiosei+ t lhuicii tt is ieiult ofics a i ll I_ i li ii Ct ll digit i1 ti
ir-plsacnd H It htli li Nepl iind Il I it o 1t di n x rcpoti x showevd~lii x
110 I ii ilC1 n Ilnd two ((hi i i 4[ I) + t r Ill tt iSt cc a iI
li ii ni-1 lo tile teitld(Alc 01t ii t 1)a xl l l no r atl ihair
I i+ t cli C I ti_ I I rItii A lriricl It l ]+l Itix iirlaIthb vlda I Ltpolt
ti rn lx n r lir he1ir i 0gt h icttier scictics h i e liixL 1 a-ir la n+ire th~i a~c ii I ir i0i r+lc iloin i I n ab-t Ire
i q i 0nrilitrgt lo i xKltil+rlrle it ic_ aiiixilunri ititc is iva xxtrcl itl ceitninl ehtraterisiks tee tiilih pLlix a+ira l~l A tiiliatai ]ari1lt pinlicc sientifi-nitit allirtuis iii tie ti tiliax estiriats (se tati cuxaiipfc~il( iit iit Iot)
()ioissiahii af Vilal its
il surveys is taihtieAcialrn ilie to reptort Ilth ituit dIli ar il slltika iaest Irclit seily xldra w(lde
ioiJs arrif ihit ilerths which asectrreil ieate tireic
relote past because of inemory lapse or of misinterpretshyationi of the q(estioliaire Since tmiisqion errors are eera lly more prevalent in tife remote past they may
plradtice a liase irlrpcssiori of levels and trends in fertility Iiiartalitv aiid nnpliality For example omissisit s) first lpscii a eS wkoluld restill ill tl i eeordin of+ a later lniOll as the ilist union taia thberehv plod ce an upwlrd bias ill the estlinl tl ac rat first liarriace
D)isp lcem ent of Vital Events
A third ma iair -rim iaserved in fertility nII veys arises from inisplacciciit o the tlm oii ( ct rrence of past vital eventsI 7- and 1980 Potter 1NI77a) Potter (1 9-77a) Ias
sfiaaw that ill iilteinitv histtires displacement of Iirtis ill tie cllo le ipastIa i soth ill I concetlrt tonl a lhirtis in periods closel to the suove date and thereby create art artificial ilpression otf a lise i tllility and of a stbsuqt +n dcliin Anal ss tfdertility data Iti l a limiuil)er of W S stIltCS haJVe ShOVo evidlecC ofddisplacemnii t af dates i(fbirtls to lad fthc silVeV dil slltsl m oIlir tile oldest clialits t(hid lilnra C (1 I08 0 [lie ticld and age laImtels t) ill lull I t alil and tli tiality Call also he lislolted y evetll displacell elI
These ilrxe il rIspi nsc erroi ac iiiter-related and t eeffects at~ itdistiicm shtable roiii thosel titybevif uturher Iriort~s ml] onalissarni al eventl dislrficeiileit mayix listtit thet estimalttes inl al sili tl tItanotel r cycaali it ra of]
early+ birthrs lll isplhicceiieit of ihates of early births tuwvrid tihe sin vex date unv each create t alseu irun ession
tat a rie in fertility ii Ire vatt Ii n liltiritm respainileirtsvihr exhibit rilix e t elra itili t ri r ubie Ic iiraicI likely tfl exhIibit aIitfix l)xsIfmir rriSe ir axaliilalae (i]Ihllin di a lt)71trai rcsilat i arsift Nepal fertility srvevlii tte frIfh win set itatis c airs at ar tl i ialllllldllislilaceiientwillIe assessed within tre fatlltawitic deirtirgraphic subjects nip liity fertlity e and child uartalitynll ih fati
C
1his ixhxt ci is repr at tram italt-aran Silntat (19 2)taltijr it afxh(naalna I ritity Sury t975 1S SiaaaiJi
I
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
4 Evaluation of Age Reporting
41 AG RI T()IIIN( IN 1ill IIOUSlIOILD SIRVFY
rsholdThe single cii (d wi disllihution ofh usie newhels M sex i1id h tlhal iial icideICee is shivil il ahle 1
isIali ili1eti l i N that linlt in yeji fiAMdk egurt was
ipuite reasoil ipciil u ildds The~lsdlu m the uidi I itr
k cxxi ptni iii thi i tup i e iltp leit issinii tf
imli 11ant111i i i dI 7 alunli I iii Ili se
infiimt I hi k hcl -i tl iit0t1i i (_ it dilfieilt tt
livi iii -lll_ ithi
Ile iii i
eiiiimq iniI ii e Ii t h t t i
i iLiit1Iiklii i
1 t ICI ii iI hillllt i
lci iiI
L-
aItinll -I ltkIiic it
i-Iiil tciil
10 it sect
0 ii ii ii titi
tiIIe hi i ip ii lk iTi 0 itHP itf
-4 A i 1IIeliile Ii li h n- 1) i l 1tit 11 liiii t1 lL
i I it II l
V 11
the iniividiAl gtiIt2 I i ii
tle 1 s t it - J ik4(lililili
e-f willc uilt il
hicpitic ibse i ii li1t l(sI nlex V AtN l
fIr hiiiththe llI ouh
ce sUsIt evalati-ic i
11S 1
it
iumii i I ic limlt thI
dlil i inl 03 i nltl il ill-lini ll ural
JA 1 i I iih1I
h c 1i
i ItT c
llwXltl-l 1 th
i- at I
1qi 1ii c iijmiiltli i
ISilli 1
0)7(1Ceisis
i c
gthU11 1 4) ld t ll I ill
it tI II Cipiti 11h sIw ucic
e t) 1h1t ci+m
1i1d Iiteiilcs and it md li 11070
Miecs I(i2 144 1[0tnalecs 9)4 134
Male 90
7 i- 7 9
E 0 74
10 -
ii 7 ii1 1 1 i
P rLrriir
occur
where no digil preference existed to I80 where all aves
would end in tile saUte (iiil The indices observeo in
ai aica tle leasiluh lXhli v ltliu l hey d ildicate that
sitnlic apin existed yl nIllay he C Itipared tl ilt index
o)1018 for the Ik)0 IS ceisus Io exaiiple showii that
digi rlefct e as v no ne ile iLiIi alltii
Myers Blended Index ranges fron 0 which would
hib)-meansCF (oihapsiilthe siiiei-ear c lips intotit -ear grotps is
a istuul tecinique Iii i nieasuriiie eioss ace tmis-statntclt
lit- kind (fl iiisiep Iill lhl eveil tivCe -c irea llnp lie
Caitt r i ita l e tlps i11d sex laltis alet iisuis I i-e shtn wi 1(r tlile si tUil tlile_ )70 census in table 2 [lie
ItoS pinuiti tllt ciiiI thatl le ceN is iIliSI t-I mil at tCs 4 i f il
t hliepieficiCleOe_ ivc 0 and (0No 54 ii 00 o ir fiiialesih l
fti
is Si ini the 1970 census or
h odd Nuvled A suttid pCsihle e illr
il lil huselli l i exists at ies 30i
whiic ha sAhiu -t the Sinc pwi ilt io is
tie exclusively similr tv e ()I flr males i tihe it Iieportin 3-4Imr tiles
aus 5 I)Ihis wiould eei uilikl ysiuce in 1)70 the o lci e uIfiivaletit
25 aid 3( iiffCred h abtit 20aee1riilS 2) 34 per
ce t Inteestin ly male- Led 3( 34 auii35 3) showed
riiUi1 tile samelt_ dilelelitial ill the hiiUseloild strv itid
the LeUiedc susIl ac eiips tile eXcptin()l ofiCWith
these IvO aSes tie fie- eat aCc diStrihulioi ofthe houseshy
hll srtvey slh ws i) ilnusualitIicr featles [ie ale
pyrattid Im tile s irey shown ill ligir I deutin strates tliis visually
An nixpuctec diifeeiicc hetweeii tle 1970 census atid the l)75 lS population istriihutions emeres the sex
11to at aduhll WcTs is eiinsisteitly lower fI te censuslithat
12 Flia eh
( 1 1
i 3
11)75 70JI u-sitg [iveYer ge (itpsFigure I eI Iliseiild liiliiii d the
1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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7 Infant and Child Mortality
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kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
it is 101 the solve Ic 2(0 41)i f) I lrlel t aiees A-e grouip Nales Ileiales 15 -4 ill1 70 t1L gt01 IdIit oII hlk CIeus8Iiiiusti ili1I175 iidi m IQ0 lil 1I) () I ii t 25 29 098 098hi his diI cteI nmv dlI 1 H IllIIlSIi li f n ilIOe 30 34 099i) ~l It 088
Smiie of these flutuationts Could lie rl1if pat ticukir age 1)ik Oowt+5 t ipWere iiie allehted hy enugr4-tion Tle ratios
I 4101 for I einles 30 fnd 49) areIIIC ge 34 45 noticeable Whileit is cle tht somi 45 49 year old tc0ales went into thle -oM 1iiip It IS Ioi IsSI aitlIti Cwad to see where(]Ldei
mdit shloluldlppI)illlait 10) AC 1eratios were Calculated tie 30 34 ea old 1eiles tniv have one [lie 35 39tim theL JFS 1i1lS(h)1iVI1 oks aii fele ales aged [ ciese tttfile 30 34 ye Olds if p1 11)1 ii a I IIber iisihlge10 4 that le hlack idI ntiaof 3( 34 vean lei4ares e partly real
fable I Ilistribhiio (f I louselol [ognlatii I Sinle Years of Aec and hy Sex lIm tileI otal Sample and for tJran and RIuml l c wilh Sex Rttiis SR)
Mle etacle SR Male Female SR Male Feriale SR
(
71
4-
5
222 2 2 2 296307
23 7
313 -
32
25o 265 5
310285 2 284
26 2(7
26 32to-)2 1
87 100
107 9 W1
[[M1 110
INi 87 i4 116 123 II
2) L4 26 32 3A
3 3
11) 84
I10 (1 104 8
31 22
5 30 28
7 _82
87 104 1)1)
1O1 114 [13 100
1i[8 178 177 MO
1[84 [1) 187
19
21) 30 30 32 31
137 18 159 195 177 180 161
23 86 30 98 27 I I1 33 92 3 104 3( 1 ]18 27 116
7 8
10
302 315
315 318
31 33 3s 33
300 27 314 285
31 I 101 28 113shy32 10 2) 112
[05 I
II 112
21 3
31 31
114 81)
i5 01
30 2o 25 2(
)2
)4
117 III
197
231 0-4 206
33 38 34 34
186 179 219 184
31 30 37 3
106 129
112 1I 12
14 1 16 7
27(1 326 3 238 260 201
2 3426 _(i 27 2
7[6
270 2)52X 0 286 257 30 18 233
2 30o 21
2( 23 22 24
(00 III
) 9
[(1 I311 9 07
94 2ti 106 3(14 8 4
78 22
6 1[ 3 1
-7 6 +7 (10
[108
23 22
bull6 L12 2 28
[O 123 8
78 105 78 4)
176 2210 1710 180 1b) 138 0-1
21 363 8
3) 2 23
7
183 201 199 157 138 133 127
31 35 33 26 23 22 21
96 105 85
115 122 104
82 18 I1 20 21 22 3
2-1
22
171 [31 17
[3 -121
1
24 [
14 12
13
211 97[7
12i) [52 [38
135
2) 18 [3 [6 [4
14[421 14
10( 14 139 8 85 43 96
3 6-73 63 5o 64
20 18 2 1 1 [ 6 [ 88 17I
()3 83 5) 83 72
2 72
21 2
[ 5 22 1q I6 I
100 77
127 7o 78
103 13
13o 3
104 68 I 08 62
12
17 11 10 Il 1
1 8l5 6
70 69 66 80 63
20 0
i2 12 11 13 1
[ [28 14) Q9 2
85 98
25 15( 16 21 [2 [1 72 20 6 1 [0i 4 14 55 09 153 26 27 28 21 30 31 32
33 34
10 107
18 117 (
63 (2
I
I1 11 f()
0 15 0600 1-[0 07 (0
105 1[0 14 107 I()
8 88 74 6X
[1 11 [1 I1 11 (08[fh 0)
08X (7
[05 97 88 )2
[3(
[I 85 1
67 1) 18 58 76 0 49 34 3o
19 14 I I 21 II 14A
09 I A
60 I 0( I(1 5) I 1 1) () 0 11 I1 0 13
3 01) 31 01
112 82
93 127 (1 (X
14 I I(
-13
1
101 71 -to 4()
21) 20
07 10 07 07 12
11 i
(3 (11
45 50
4 48s 36 38
30 37
1) 6 OS 16
9508 1)6
(8 7 0 148 )o I2 06 121) 1)6 76 (o 7)
13
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
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itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
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A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
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mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
11Resic IdeIncc (()Id)Table I l)is tribui I) IIkItIseI I () pulalionI) SinI PIotrs )fA e by Se 1Id Ull l IHil
A ec D lo I I )a R l
Male lieale lcilvil c SR NlI F-uale SR
35 10() 10 I 00 10 10( 4 13 4) 13 53 ) 5051 0) 104
36 37 38 39 40 4
43 44
-13 54 04 5
123 4-12 50 05
0) 00 07 ()0 1 3
04(7
()0 07
82 0 7() 75
(02 54 1 81 00
(8 07 0X 08 () 0 08 08 00
l(0 I
SI 7)
1 8
79 06)
108
41 -7 21 20 51 23 28 24 21
11 (8 00 (8 15 0 08 U7 (7
I-23 12 22 -10 2 _() 37 21
1I 06 11 00
() 005 () 10 05
03 17 5
(32 35
Q7 ngt
(4
-2 27 43 )
W0 5
30 32 41
07 04 (17 05 11 O(8 00 05 0
31 44 37 530 o02
52 -l
30
(067 07 (00 0) 10
((I
07 07
i 01
110 57
111
l) 73
I
45 5 10 7-1 08 128 2) 08 3(1 0 (7100 11 4-4 (7 (5()
40 -17 18
4o
50 5I 5
o7 53 75 07
103 47 72
07 05
(17
11 05 07
75 6S o4 05
164 80 88
08 (7 07 07 17 0 09
8 78
(17 103 03 55 82
27 08 23 06 21 0 23 06 28 018 20 0 21 00
32 27 24 20
(o( 2M
0N 07 00 08
0 (18
M 85 8
70
4
0-)
72
0 30 5-I -14
5 2 I
07 0 0 0 12 ((4 08
43 11 -(0 3lo 90 37 5)
(17 )
07 o
( (0
73 135 (22 78 47 80
53 54
5 56 57 5S 5)
00 ol 62 63
52 51 5f 57 40 43 40
107 32 55 39
05 ( 06( 00 05 0A ((4 11
(3 06 04
75 74 01 62 46 70 18
1(24 -5 3
5
08 085 06 00 05 07 04 13 05 05 06
0)
7 2
1(1 61
105 80 71
I(1 70
20
1I 1 7 (5 13 23 8
(b I 2
( 0
03( )203
((5 04 OA 06 ((2 (1-i ()3
21 25 () I7 14 I I I 31 2) (
II
_5 (16 05 O4 04 01 03 0) 05 04 04
05 70 5I 71
121 4
1 0 4(0 ((0
32 35
4 2) 2 27
) 21 3)
0-0( 0() () I 05 ((5
04 I4 04 00 07
5-1 4) -2 5 32 5-i
91 25 37 4 shy42
((I 0 07 u 05 0
5 0-i 0 o7
5 71 (14 100 9I 52
IO 33
16 i05 01
o4 65 66 (17 68 69 70 71 7273
42 95 30 20 34 23 80 18 3824
04 10 03 02 04 02 08 02 0402
43 s3 3(J 40 28 ) 58 15 5(22
0-I ()x 03 04 ((3 03 0(0 02 05((2
I14 (0
5O 121 7) 138 120 76
I0))
1II P9 o 4 1 8
13
98
03 05 (2 (11 03 02 0 ()1 03((2
I5 04 20 05
02 13 03 7 02 2 (3
1 ( 05 7 02 (2 ((38 02
73 5
31 171 o7 72 43 -5
I(((
31 70 21
22 (5 o7 15 2)I(
05 (3 0A 003 04 0t2 11 0) ()503
28 63 21 27 21 17 10
3-(-4
05 11
()1 )5
01 (3 07 ()I 00 (2
III 121 (-1 5) l05 X8
168 I(88 70
114
7475
1341
0I04
215(
02 05
02 82
3 8
02 I
02 (4
50 53
(03
02 0gt
(535
((306
o7 4
76 8 01 15 02 53 3 01 3 ()I (00 5 01 I 2 ((2 42
77 78 7) 80 81
10 13 14 17
01 0 I ((1 02 00
(
I( 37
5
00 02 01
4 O1
Il 68 140 46 00
0 2 3 I
((0 (1 01
(() 00
2 3
-1
(1 (2 (1 (2 013
((
(00
I0
(0 II II (0
((2 ((2 (2
03 (1)
7 II
7
2
((1 ( 0 I
(1gt (
(-13 12l((O 157 55
30(0
X2 83 84 85
8 5 -8
(11 01 (( 01
1
II 15
01 01 02 19
89 45 27 89
3 1 1 0
(11 (0
((() (0)
0 ) 4
((0 (2 (l (10
II 0
5 -
8
(( ()I ( 01
2 (3
5
) (2 ( ( )_
(1I
5o 2(0()
331 (0
86 87
2
00 00
4 00 011
50 44
(1 0
0() 00 ((
(1 J)
( (
2 -
O( ((1
1 )
(00
5) 14
88 2 00 3 00 67 1 O1) 2 01 50 I ()) I (() ((J(1
8) (
)
1l
1 l1-
130 to-i-3
00 01 13
-()6
41 10 41
(806
00 (14 (1-I
5()1
25 27
(
gt 35)
((0 1
183 3
I
(1 0302 ()
5517
(1 38
)3
I
75 ((4
(1(1 ()1 (
501
3 32 (-I
)57
( I (5 (2
1)()
303 25
I(02
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
nIII I~ hI ()I II IitI I m u III l l p c Il lmalt hiilhrioHI I tI Ii I(m AI Ih I Il iCf hI IAA AI C I] I A I I ICI 01t1I tlI Iu I LjI III 11It I
ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
l~~~l~ t l++ i m A~dAtIII+ t l IIItIIHIm t h J h + I (hA I IIu I I H m gt x
ii11 iV iT1 I i I shyv i~i - I I I AAI II I t I i I ti III d
I
Ill~~vV l AI I I l JIc I-fI I I(I I))jl ll ol A IIi ( 1 I
r I~ 1 AA I (k) ) ]I t Il1~ l IIIl I111 I 1 1 I t H f+( - I) AM )
itI 1 111 Ic 1I It I I l1 1 - fI+t ii It L 1 111 1J I S m 1 S-9 )
dc 34 I 11 A ld k w i 0 IAt I I(-~tcm( c ()(gt3 ()()) ())vc
I lt l III1 11 ( II( I h ll a1 l ()q)enc ()I( o f hiIJlmT hi iite ro IclI IL- M il
l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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dhi I IItl
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1 1)d 11
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tlllll lh
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elClt e l (1 IIc T Ii I o IIIc il1 e
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U000001)
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007400)1shy
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007900170-)
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0088
0012
I 7gt 76
7 Infant and Child Mortality
ltJ]u li llti l l- 1idl e I~U Iil tmet filz ii -
CIr ill Ii ll I h 11l~llJJ 11 l t llh Ij ll d 0 0CIL] IjIII I I A
iIl - I I IIIi I -tiiII i Il
I I hI 1 1 1 l 11 11dI I C I I Wl 1 111 l lI t - IJICd
1 I[I I(~l l h I lImil IIi h I It t1-1 d
i tl t q I I h Il+ it II l P+IJ III
li t iI~ ~ tt ji + i 1 l I I11 I + l I I II ]tl I
I ci I- iti i~ ~ ampi~ i Ii I I IiiLI I+ )11
d Ilc i l I y iIltti A l I I 1 1 il l
c IiI IltII q~t I 1( 1M1 1 1 ll I I t lt lllt
II 1 I Jdcm Il]( Ih I Il I IdP Ntch)
~ ~~ 1 1 l
PI l ) s l I I II 1It Ii
i t lJ itltC II i Ii l I I I I t1 I I i I l l i Ilc Il ti I[I
tih Ic11 ll i1 1 I 1I lfltl il )IIA lltkv declloIII
- o i Iirlttl l~i w p elll i tL1- lw h~l t_ Ilic
centIlH I tI Il tII -Ix I 111110l I t )i L l11 11
tIn s t TJl (d 111111( 0 CI it Ih t t( + ilI ltII lw id
10P - 11 ll ii y I cit
13-
09 4
10
S
08-
07
I 00
05-
04
03
02 -
02- - T F
50 1 53 5 57 59 GI
Cnlindfr
ll hlfe oiw h ic kiltliv hyV eaII 111t of vcl ld c ItilII() 14 h a llc 1)c lll( lll tht lillic h III l wll l l c~
i tI t t I t j I I I I II tII iitIl 11 I III
Ihi t l I
) 111h t- L I 111111I tl I I (l 1i 11 2
mlliio t h I c I )II I I CI d Il d J Ic ie
l c_[lh -li u 1
I C I t l p m cdI t gt lt Cpl l +t~l - LII ll p - c i
I 4I 1 tl A II c+ t t~ I I l I~ t 1
I)( l 1 1 t1111 t l ]I ])( Ivhlin h ildCp I i l 111 h k Illt t -
ill If l I$If II t
Iu 1 ] 1 cht t i 11111i m I I l lc1 1 iet-t
c1t llI I It i[t t Il Ip eIl mit
v Cbt~ II C I Iq lt~IlI I I Idll It I V t Il
ih Ii l l Ii l i t l I llt I l I
t T~ l i It f t U 1 n il ll t ~1) l
il4 ) t l- II p pIlhlCAil lt i1 t l mllt~l mtlcI wt
+It 1 1Jillt t k 1d110l~l I I h lll11 I l 1 -
d id t l Itlh ItIIILlt CSi JW d
I all tw- l l I Jld Iil tl11 1 l IlittiI M 1O
1 1 t-lt 2 l
- -
1lq0
63 W15 131 71 7 3 7467
ynai
Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
II 5 I) 1 155 1 21) 2) 25 29)
I I l1 1 5) (3 ) (5) 117 ) (io) tIlI II5 35 35 75 5) 75 123
hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
li 1 44 (03) (18) bull 1 0 ((o) 10
I4i S -16 37 50 71 79) 88
lwtutt C l lII 11)1lhlcInl 1+t tlII M lit1II Ltt I h jillh
I I111 7(
i I d t h 11 l W ilh 1i1 c i I t i itl 11 lt Cl i H1i l til l shiivs Smi I i I tc l tl ltli I l c Illtt i 1t IIil ll I it ill18ll h0lt118)cill( lilllllI itpcilI+ 111 Iwll 111)1Illl~~l IIIlilt d mllill[ llll 1 I i III Illil lAt liltdlilltl llhl fill
ill 11 wdl I)AlotItt iIIkill fclill)m cjtl oI If (11hi llh (Iltwtl witl+ rlliI I l]I ltll tt+[ ]t l 1 I 1 11ll 1 1ll 11thI~ampt IK I ll+I t cli h-l111 11 1 II A dIdX I illt lilkt I I i1 l lll 11i1
ttM 1litp l cI k ( tJlll[kli [1 - 111 I)r hw l tiI i d+l IV (i 1lt lll lI p llic 1 i ll ltIc fItl( l li ii~l t t Hill liIc~ ft l 1 I il i 11+ t I hll m tc i ull c l t 1i1i l l l+ IIC
dIllip Ild 1 tillI II h llt 1it itItl~IP1id 11 1I 1 1 l11w 11) 111)+ l ( I i] t +lF I ti c +t I IId lk Ilt- dt~ 1 it l I (I+ ltt I cjl 1haill~ I +I lillMI Il
ltIt~il Iti I +P 1+ +i ) + lt+ t+hI1+ I lilli ll+ lilt ) - 11 1 t I ill 111 il+ 1 111il It
hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
f Ile 2 lDiiit ll ii m 1Ioull Stlvl Poupiiutin inii 1 -) Qnmm INuWitoi y HwlU2vL Ap (1olp Mvit Six Ri
All 19T IS hotuscld mii aiw 1)70 cenism popidilion
Fe-iL Sex f-() MacF71 aSe ai
)~5
71
7 t
472 6
79 - 10 1021
80 8-68 44
WU7 83101 67 40
102
101 h
228 U)(1
10) 32 27
78
29 92
-
11 I ) 17
3 14-
11 20 18103 25) 11 17
1Y) (q)
67 88 86
21 211 18 1 8 1 I
24 2428 20
19 16(P 15
8
9 92
93
-
00) 04 D-(2 0 1 01
09) 05 04 02) (2
1041 S8 48
59 2
1
0 7 0-I 02
C
08 05 03
86 77 58
44I
1WI 2Ili - l I I I - ~ Q l lls i e 1 mill ishy
ii I W1 I I N ( I INl l 1 V I11 0 T K ti ll e a p I I 1 t i -l l ) h 1 - ) t
liltw oll ) dlltdm-yile el il~t list ih 6 li 11w i ji l w I itt
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
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I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
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(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
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C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
lIc Yiri otl Ac lop)i)I -d in tile Individutal Table 3 cr (Cntl isi rhitio l 1 ct d1 40 accoiiiic to S
lhllucaih ll (rt)Ilpkltcricw fill Rusidefc ei l+r
Sccondarv h iherPrimat tl uication
I (1t1i I irtnal Rilii
7 is 7 8VIS (I) (2)
160 I)71 13 0704 5515 17 135 35 16 60 50 (
120 70 17 02 00 64 21 6
5 54 17 3 4 103 102 I8 54
45 44 45 2 39 69 88 1
40 6730 520 35 32 8
47 15 75 21 39 45 34 22
57 45 34 2 32 37 27
43 3342 3)23 38 34 22 36
24 35 39 30 37 46 23 3921 28 35
25 28 37 45 26 30 33 26 28 34 27
38 16 2720 30
27 28 37 19 3222 39
28 27 33 22 2) 27 33 22 30 34 17 28
39 14 30 27 33 22 30 23
2 I 26 17 23 35 07 12 51 12 1917 19 2418 20
10 1724 24 3623 23
06 1016 2() 20 34 17 I 1912293424 23 2535 08 1330 2521 2036 20 37 20 18 22 2) 27 05 09
05 03) 3 19 18 20 33 21
1023 0625 4122 18 4 ) 23 02 04
1(1 23 16 29 08 131) 25
11 17 16 18 21 20 07 12
42 19 17 33 23 00 10
43 20 14 24 32 17 36 08 04 06
44 15 13 37 I o (8 13
15 20 18 22 22 05
46 19 17 21 33 08 0823 0523 35
17 20 17 03 (17 30 13
48 152 17 2() 18 05 09
4 I 7 17
1278 7591069 1268td wonc 3 15 1)3
[ CAl IkIl[ lttl1i iIV M JIch i Ikt Ilu I ( kitt l l Itltr)tW il IW J 1()d W Vt )s i
(2) CXChIdLCS int mh
i- tilt 15 IN ) catI o)l Itt liiIIi thI l1 s111lnill lhi1 1ll i ill wuOI ily M ihIICr level Cth lwk 11111grou)
()f tile While dateleipoliik Was Ill getleml v ~od tile darte vJ1th1 1 Ittl(wd ha i e venit+ ill tclnl of
l ecllrV ilt ) lint li ll ilitil wasl tl is acetliielv lept itcIdI iSl- il 11theC itll)ilyl()IiiitillW i ti
llin liI uitll I ll ll iC inLiAiI Id1 lth kic of -17 pet cci ol rill WililCil iVT theiilUtic J itlt miltthc
(1 I 1lC hll te Alilhic h Illis w ii lmI I ckllc t It) c~lclil l hC11
)S116 1Ii1ih 0 cCCYII(- itC0 WVli1iili
) i ltclil (d Il lt h lcdii c1 11i ltI Alild iL-1 im ic Iml cl 1 1111 (111c it w ( u1ilt 1 WI~ li Ito tileli centC I l (li l
ii l lt lilll ( ~ llc l i-c tll210HIi)( i I
lV~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~li~~~~~P
11 I ll toliil xtl kidcultl~~~~il l~l l 11 1v it ld ll)llj wili 111ci
htlv t11 1 l11l1 jJ11t 11 1 1111Cd 01~i11 IIl 11 1 t- i C l i hc q cihJlnp t o l )Mgt[iid tnlh ~-l l 0li hLllll1 1
i l h ~ l l I d ) l l i n 1 v 1 l l h I tilk-C1HIc li 0i 1 Z u c~ tlt lAhiill ~ ) It il I I 1 lit L
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
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1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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7 Infant and Child Mortality
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kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
Tabole 4+ Pi elliu1I) ii~miDII mI iti111Lh Po pillliloll tlvct15 -41) hvFiVu-Yeml Age Himlps f )i1]SIn1dividual al IhMISCll1hl miuv)rd Im Rkidcc 111(Iklucatiill Suhlpp IM Individual
lmln Vivs I m I ( j wt 1111
fcI S 1IRS Alcal 1970 1175 111liti hiiscliolh 1)70 census Sli Vi CiC I le Vi Iisiis
II I) 2sl 278 I) 14 269 201 24 17 Is) 15 19 180
- 21 -40 142 20 24 118 3 4 IOs IOS 25 2 117 35 3) I06 1OA 30 34 94
4043 9 8 35 39 Q645 4 1 90 10 4 1 90
IQ75 IFS
e at I allt Iul Primarv Secolairv 1 Q7 5 7 o Ni V 7 8 yrs7 vi s
IS f) 303- 3 I 3 592 20 24 187 171 -11 214 17225 2 173 11 138 180 100 I()34 122 95 125 154 48 3 90 I 12 1 8 125 36
41 4-1 76 109 169 9) 27 45 40 82 99 100 95 25
Talc 5 Per (CelI of Fver-in-t iioii WrMenlclReporl il ofDate of Owin BirtIh and Dale Vist Ihimi as Aec hy Current Age
I1a4e I5 I) 20 2- 25 2) 310 34 35 39 40 -14 45 49 Total l)al em41l I 4 ISj-rIh D 1Ci hih123 -1 11 13 15 0-Dlale (1Ifist union 2) 43 47 51 -52 55 60 47
(f wowen 303 565 384485 371 333 324 2765
Smrcc 11S1975 76
Table 0 Per (Cent of Woiten Reporlim Date o(f Pregnancy and Date of l)eatlh of (hlilrei as Yeats Ago hy IrniMcy (ImICI CtMthe 1ilslSev ii lPreeaiicies
Prei aincy )ate m)lp - laleurlilall ifchilds uliili Per cent Bii Ii le N
75 2-181 I 215 181 2 (S 20122 23 133
831 1592 3 177 113 4 102 1261 4 185 81 5 102 7-1 5 25- 67 6 88 747 6 28( 42 7 ()8 500 7 167 30
S r 11 S 1975 71)
17
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
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l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
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I I l1 1 5) (3 ) (5) 117 ) (io) tIlI II5 35 35 75 5) 75 123
hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
li 1 44 (03) (18) bull 1 0 ((o) 10
I4i S -16 37 50 71 79) 88
lwtutt C l lII 11)1lhlcInl 1+t tlII M lit1II Ltt I h jillh
I I111 7(
i I d t h 11 l W ilh 1i1 c i I t i itl 11 lt Cl i H1i l til l shiivs Smi I i I tc l tl ltli I l c Illtt i 1t IIil ll I it ill18ll h0lt118)cill( lilllllI itpcilI+ 111 Iwll 111)1Illl~~l IIIlilt d mllill[ llll 1 I i III Illil lAt liltdlilltl llhl fill
ill 11 wdl I)AlotItt iIIkill fclill)m cjtl oI If (11hi llh (Iltwtl witl+ rlliI I l]I ltll tt+[ ]t l 1 I 1 11ll 1 1ll 11thI~ampt IK I ll+I t cli h-l111 11 1 II A dIdX I illt lilkt I I i1 l lll 11i1
ttM 1litp l cI k ( tJlll[kli [1 - 111 I)r hw l tiI i d+l IV (i 1lt lll lI p llic 1 i ll ltIc fItl( l li ii~l t t Hill liIc~ ft l 1 I il i 11+ t I hll m tc i ull c l t 1i1i l l l+ IIC
dIllip Ild 1 tillI II h llt 1it itItl~IP1id 11 1I 1 1 l11w 11) 111)+ l ( I i] t +lF I ti c +t I IId lk Ilt- dt~ 1 it l I (I+ ltt I cjl 1haill~ I +I lillMI Il
ltIt~il Iti I +P 1+ +i ) + lt+ t+hI1+ I lilli ll+ lilt ) - 11 1 t I ill 111 il+ 1 111il It
hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
5 Nuptialit4y
LIS C~~titk inlud l I II S ltt p ~ In ii tilvi Mtttltll lt ill ItFlC tielii ll sjI iii ILI(I t
IIL iII~II~ e dl Iltc iLL l~l 11IIIIL MIII a Mit ISI 10 tLLILIL 1 II lk ILLIIL OIC Il 11 OfII
II I li iw k V III 11C-IH ( I CIllLL iIl ii imil i LIi i i lo ii wco No Illi ji lt1 I(1
L i i ll~iII ltc l h lLillmi iltL viL ilill 1111LL t 11d1 i011) LIwi1- CIII lI L L i LL
iLtL l t LI 2LLNN ILL IL~ i t ili lli til)IIL 111c i
I I II ill Ic11111 li ll t Il11kiil l-~~ I I i I iI i LI Il
I gt I N l SV L I L V I I liltIIIhIIL I
II CIIC1Il 1 III I OIIII w N)I~kIo
1 1 IL l I I lt III I I IIlIcC I NI111111I if~ ItiL IiLIILI
II I I I I I I P llI I lILI I l IVI I S l
III I IA II
II II11t 1 it1 Il ~ i I I I
LI 11155 111
II LL LlI~~lI
I I Will LIII d il IliL limlli i s I
hIIIJ (I liltILL
~~111-1d
IIL I
S l I I I ik 6 l c Ii cIoIiit 11)I LI I A II I Ii IL IILIIIIIilI I ii 11 N I 111 III~II -il i i li l ji II
i l lll i LIIl I IIIctll ISLIIllI I~IwIL
P k I t Inv~iVN LIIPil LILLI Il Illct~ Il1I I~lIi ILIIIll~l
1111 vL lIlcI I 1)[ILIN Iii LH I ll~ t II Il V LLII~lLI~iLIjILLLIL
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
nIII I~ hI ()I II IitI I m u III l l p c Il lmalt hiilhrioHI I tI Ii I(m AI Ih I Il iCf hI IAA AI C I] I A I I ICI 01t1I tlI Iu I LjI III 11It I
ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
l~~~l~ t l++ i m A~dAtIII+ t l IIItIIHIm t h J h + I (hA I IIu I I H m gt x
ii11 iV iT1 I i I shyv i~i - I I I AAI II I t I i I ti III d
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itI 1 111 Ic 1I It I I l1 1 - fI+t ii It L 1 111 1J I S m 1 S-9 )
dc 34 I 11 A ld k w i 0 IAt I I(-~tcm( c ()(gt3 ()()) ())vc
I lt l III1 11 ( II( I h ll a1 l ()q)enc ()I( o f hiIJlmT hi iite ro IclI IL- M il
l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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I 7gt 76
7 Infant and Child Mortality
ltJ]u li llti l l- 1idl e I~U Iil tmet filz ii -
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d Ilc i l I y iIltti A l I I 1 1 il l
c IiI IltII q~t I 1( 1M1 1 1 ll I I t lt lllt
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tih Ic11 ll i1 1 I 1I lfltl il )IIA lltkv declloIII
- o i Iirlttl l~i w p elll i tL1- lw h~l t_ Ilic
centIlH I tI Il tII -Ix I 111110l I t )i L l11 11
tIn s t TJl (d 111111( 0 CI it Ih t t( + ilI ltII lw id
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Cnlindfr
ll hlfe oiw h ic kiltliv hyV eaII 111t of vcl ld c ItilII() 14 h a llc 1)c lll( lll tht lillic h III l wll l l c~
i tI t t I t j I I I I II tII iitIl 11 I III
Ihi t l I
) 111h t- L I 111111I tl I I (l 1i 11 2
mlliio t h I c I )II I I CI d Il d J Ic ie
l c_[lh -li u 1
I C I t l p m cdI t gt lt Cpl l +t~l - LII ll p - c i
I 4I 1 tl A II c+ t t~ I I l I~ t 1
I)( l 1 1 t1111 t l ]I ])( Ivhlin h ildCp I i l 111 h k Illt t -
ill If l I$If II t
Iu 1 ] 1 cht t i 11111i m I I l lc1 1 iet-t
c1t llI I It i[t t Il Ip eIl mit
v Cbt~ II C I Iq lt~IlI I I Idll It I V t Il
ih Ii l l Ii l i t l I llt I l I
t T~ l i It f t U 1 n il ll t ~1) l
il4 ) t l- II p pIlhlCAil lt i1 t l mllt~l mtlcI wt
+It 1 1Jillt t k 1d110l~l I I h lll11 I l 1 -
d id t l Itlh ItIIILlt CSi JW d
I all tw- l l I Jld Iil tl11 1 l IlittiI M 1O
1 1 t-lt 2 l
- -
1lq0
63 W15 131 71 7 3 7467
ynai
Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
II 5 I) 1 155 1 21) 2) 25 29)
I I l1 1 5) (3 ) (5) 117 ) (io) tIlI II5 35 35 75 5) 75 123
hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
li 1 44 (03) (18) bull 1 0 ((o) 10
I4i S -16 37 50 71 79) 88
lwtutt C l lII 11)1lhlcInl 1+t tlII M lit1II Ltt I h jillh
I I111 7(
i I d t h 11 l W ilh 1i1 c i I t i itl 11 lt Cl i H1i l til l shiivs Smi I i I tc l tl ltli I l c Illtt i 1t IIil ll I it ill18ll h0lt118)cill( lilllllI itpcilI+ 111 Iwll 111)1Illl~~l IIIlilt d mllill[ llll 1 I i III Illil lAt liltdlilltl llhl fill
ill 11 wdl I)AlotItt iIIkill fclill)m cjtl oI If (11hi llh (Iltwtl witl+ rlliI I l]I ltll tt+[ ]t l 1 I 1 11ll 1 1ll 11thI~ampt IK I ll+I t cli h-l111 11 1 II A dIdX I illt lilkt I I i1 l lll 11i1
ttM 1litp l cI k ( tJlll[kli [1 - 111 I)r hw l tiI i d+l IV (i 1lt lll lI p llic 1 i ll ltIc fItl( l li ii~l t t Hill liIc~ ft l 1 I il i 11+ t I hll m tc i ull c l t 1i1i l l l+ IIC
dIllip Ild 1 tillI II h llt 1it itItl~IP1id 11 1I 1 1 l11w 11) 111)+ l ( I i] t +lF I ti c +t I IId lk Ilt- dt~ 1 it l I (I+ ltt I cjl 1haill~ I +I lillMI Il
ltIt~il Iti I +P 1+ +i ) + lt+ t+hI1+ I lilli ll+ lilt ) - 11 1 t I ill 111 il+ 1 111il It
hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
Tabile 7 Pool (Cent tilfWtiuuw (lIl is (1iiiciit 111iiil IlliittI Statuswilt] SCO1ittl11 iiitl (itnenII
Pe~r cciii wil I i mtilt cdlitaltI
Nl~~urtilaw(tnutttb Visiting Not cititeutly
20 24 5) 10( 42 23 25 2) 419 7 34 10) 3(0 341 27 3 18) 14 35 31) 17 3 (20)9 40) 44 12 0 (13) 16 45 4 Q 14 3 (Q) 6 __
I liituis tntlItl 1 J11 ()it Ltiy10 lit )CV0n 1 IN (le I Ilv this is (me nttu iit iivp ssihIc iiitliclttts ()I it injllm)I withdllictilt l n litt lik 111itl ltistiti lilliti lisImYz id silicc all ciluntil btc ctvici licic ithc
Mitt i itill ii Nli til t111)Itiil C il i sittti(t dJu itl tp 1ii tiitiCCIIlcti ItiC110
I cIiv ix11( x i n mitti1 titanh li ifsl iiii I Iti I- vtaio itpli i Ialis llt ilti isi
11W11111~ ~ ~ kl~ ll ~ ~ ldl111~ ~ ~i ~ ~ l i aWdjkItIIN 111u ill ~ iil~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IIM ~ lLII~ ~ ~ ~ I t1lw0 w
IS~ l 111)l l1 I w ll~ 13m m a (1l ilo ll~ il ilim i (1 O 1 10 1 ~ lo l s~ l
11 1 il P l-J 111 k )j m Illtl i~ I t o i ii w cc l ) Ii~ ( ) o i d I i1 AII Lit l i il llII 11 1 1 Im l S 1 2111c 1 i C C C 1 l p p ril c i p I l
1c 11~ di l lt 1- hl(II~ wcI Mll1111w 1P il w w l l c~ilip ~ m 1111m ip Ilcil is lih ll17lIll 13Il c t c IIt 111c ISV mc N)d NIm l it cIlCCAI C M J
511l31) Il tI) 1211 6li i ( ill lh I mIILs l~Ilm ilc
II1Ill 11C 1100o i l 111m l ite ll lc l 100N lc eI v ii 00 i r l i iw l li ill l 7))Wll v I~~w 11lill lh55 Mu0811 ~ icl t s 11l W ll 173 V Nlllll
lucius) 3(i3l 221th 305iAi Ii wIl 111 t(mv )
lm ~ ~ ~- i 5Ic1t i ll l7ul 1c II)I ili l 10 1 m p N m i i l ll V s t l
l~0 1Im ] t~ 111h I li( 11 11WI 1)1111 IIW I M 1111d ]Ill fl t Ivv l wc lll I111
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
nIII I~ hI ()I II IitI I m u III l l p c Il lmalt hiilhrioHI I tI Ii I(m AI Ih I Il iCf hI IAA AI C I] I A I I ICI 01t1I tlI Iu I LjI III 11It I
ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
l~~~l~ t l++ i m A~dAtIII+ t l IIItIIHIm t h J h + I (hA I IIu I I H m gt x
ii11 iV iT1 I i I shyv i~i - I I I AAI II I t I i I ti III d
I
Ill~~vV l AI I I l JIc I-fI I I(I I))jl ll ol A IIi ( 1 I
r I~ 1 AA I (k) ) ]I t Il1~ l IIIl I111 I 1 1 I t H f+( - I) AM )
itI 1 111 Ic 1I It I I l1 1 - fI+t ii It L 1 111 1J I S m 1 S-9 )
dc 34 I 11 A ld k w i 0 IAt I I(-~tcm( c ()(gt3 ()()) ())vc
I lt l III1 11 ( II( I h ll a1 l ()q)enc ()I( o f hiIJlmT hi iite ro IclI IL- M il
l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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dhi I IItl
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tlllll lh
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elClt e l (1 IIc T Ii I o IIIc il1 e
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U000001)
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I 7gt 76
7 Infant and Child Mortality
ltJ]u li llti l l- 1idl e I~U Iil tmet filz ii -
CIr ill Ii ll I h 11l~llJJ 11 l t llh Ij ll d 0 0CIL] IjIII I I A
iIl - I I IIIi I -tiiII i Il
I I hI 1 1 1 l 11 11dI I C I I Wl 1 111 l lI t - IJICd
1 I[I I(~l l h I lImil IIi h I It t1-1 d
i tl t q I I h Il+ it II l P+IJ III
li t iI~ ~ tt ji + i 1 l I I11 I + l I I II ]tl I
I ci I- iti i~ ~ ampi~ i Ii I I IiiLI I+ )11
d Ilc i l I y iIltti A l I I 1 1 il l
c IiI IltII q~t I 1( 1M1 1 1 ll I I t lt lllt
II 1 I Jdcm Il]( Ih I Il I IdP Ntch)
~ ~~ 1 1 l
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tih Ic11 ll i1 1 I 1I lfltl il )IIA lltkv declloIII
- o i Iirlttl l~i w p elll i tL1- lw h~l t_ Ilic
centIlH I tI Il tII -Ix I 111110l I t )i L l11 11
tIn s t TJl (d 111111( 0 CI it Ih t t( + ilI ltII lw id
10P - 11 ll ii y I cit
13-
09 4
10
S
08-
07
I 00
05-
04
03
02 -
02- - T F
50 1 53 5 57 59 GI
Cnlindfr
ll hlfe oiw h ic kiltliv hyV eaII 111t of vcl ld c ItilII() 14 h a llc 1)c lll( lll tht lillic h III l wll l l c~
i tI t t I t j I I I I II tII iitIl 11 I III
Ihi t l I
) 111h t- L I 111111I tl I I (l 1i 11 2
mlliio t h I c I )II I I CI d Il d J Ic ie
l c_[lh -li u 1
I C I t l p m cdI t gt lt Cpl l +t~l - LII ll p - c i
I 4I 1 tl A II c+ t t~ I I l I~ t 1
I)( l 1 1 t1111 t l ]I ])( Ivhlin h ildCp I i l 111 h k Illt t -
ill If l I$If II t
Iu 1 ] 1 cht t i 11111i m I I l lc1 1 iet-t
c1t llI I It i[t t Il Ip eIl mit
v Cbt~ II C I Iq lt~IlI I I Idll It I V t Il
ih Ii l l Ii l i t l I llt I l I
t T~ l i It f t U 1 n il ll t ~1) l
il4 ) t l- II p pIlhlCAil lt i1 t l mllt~l mtlcI wt
+It 1 1Jillt t k 1d110l~l I I h lll11 I l 1 -
d id t l Itlh ItIIILlt CSi JW d
I all tw- l l I Jld Iil tl11 1 l IlittiI M 1O
1 1 t-lt 2 l
- -
1lq0
63 W15 131 71 7 3 7467
ynai
Fig re 5 holllililic im Ihic - il l li )I l i w ithiN ()])(II)j I liVC S(I)YCII~olliiI i d hCIVCeII ()Im illk I h I hl)l ( t l-11 11 ) omil ll) I i-Aikt
Tahlv 37 Ilhahiiliv (I I jiit i) li l l Icl 1 lLif( ) fll s lpriml llflIM Peri to Suitvy id Ihy Age (Gi Mulhci at h liI t1Ci lh1 C llildllil 11
II 5 I) 1 155 1 21) 2) 25 29)
I I l1 1 5) (3 ) (5) 117 ) (io) tIlI II5 35 35 75 5) 75 123
hlo 52 -h 32 1l 82 11 38 20 ho 07 84
A I 58 55 63 53 5) i 53 7(0 13 53
li 1 44 (03) (18) bull 1 0 ((o) 10
I4i S -16 37 50 71 79) 88
lwtutt C l lII 11)1lhlcInl 1+t tlII M lit1II Ltt I h jillh
I I111 7(
i I d t h 11 l W ilh 1i1 c i I t i itl 11 lt Cl i H1i l til l shiivs Smi I i I tc l tl ltli I l c Illtt i 1t IIil ll I it ill18ll h0lt118)cill( lilllllI itpcilI+ 111 Iwll 111)1Illl~~l IIIlilt d mllill[ llll 1 I i III Illil lAt liltdlilltl llhl fill
ill 11 wdl I)AlotItt iIIkill fclill)m cjtl oI If (11hi llh (Iltwtl witl+ rlliI I l]I ltll tt+[ ]t l 1 I 1 11ll 1 1ll 11thI~ampt IK I ll+I t cli h-l111 11 1 II A dIdX I illt lilkt I I i1 l lll 11i1
ttM 1litp l cI k ( tJlll[kli [1 - 111 I)r hw l tiI i d+l IV (i 1lt lll lI p llic 1 i ll ltIc fItl( l li ii~l t t Hill liIc~ ft l 1 I il i 11+ t I hll m tc i ull c l t 1i1i l l l+ IIC
dIllip Ild 1 tillI II h llt 1it itItl~IP1id 11 1I 1 1 l11w 11) 111)+ l ( I i] t +lF I ti c +t I IId lk Ilt- dt~ 1 it l I (I+ ltt I cjl 1haill~ I +I lillMI Il
ltIt~il Iti I +P 1+ +i ) + lt+ t+hI1+ I lilli ll+ lilt ) - 11 1 t I ill 111 il+ 1 111il It
hill IIIIC lll Illt1 1tp IiItItD ~ j It+11 IIII i h
O +ll clll III11 I 1 ilt 1 h l i lt-i 1 l ~i lxr 1 t l I l i 1l1 O)51 () (I( 10 I i ll i i i lit I0 1 lt I dil - i I w I
0l0 11 0 ()104l( OIO X1 i f llIIi l h 1 IlTk c lit 11 Ihltll l 01 1 ) 11 i J ti~l t W0 M 1 1 k1 h I Ill I I t] I ()l( 0(1- 1c l Il I l r - ii t thmI1114 0 t 1 lw tIwll 111 l i l t c 111111
+ i ( I0 OH( (t)) tlllt lit i~l lt l 7 4 O P l~ l I + 1lt i 1 l
(~ It i lltk I( i l 1 1 i
Il d l lt l i tllwl lil t 1 c1lilI l 1t1
3 11- I ltI Ib
l Ill (I111l 1111T ) kl01c II 10 11 IDillp l lt l~~i ii l~ il
(t t~iI 1 t 11( 70I i1N) I I)( 1 S51) W)1
11 ihilcll 00(l 001804 H 01(71 0I077-I
limill 0I(~041 (03 i ( IOAM U 16 O)1)8 I~tli il1104 004 (1 H0791ODA )1 00()
Iii~l ill ntI1 0)0) u(13i 0I001 0081 0(1
II I11 IIIklllh lip c I Ol0 1 0 D 3(8 IS-I( (0(18
I I i i il i hi 1 Ill iiill Ivliihltd I i) hIM-
I o d stIII( Illpt t cm iI I 1k 1I I l ( ] IIitII III~Ik o 4
o l II t I I- ti 11ktlilll I II l II tili c + d i t
1 1 i 11 1 11 l l I t I I1(I11 I 1 1k1 1 x)j II i dI
[ t I~ll t l I II I I C 1115 licli I il I I I It ]d
l itIlV I I t I + 11 i ll O wl il IIt Ilkt I~l 11 11 1 IIlit 1l1 t l ]c 111c d li ltd
Alil tm( lllAR IS O I ll I l I Itl11( ISJ
cgt it1II 1 t~ It u + lt11 tlI tI I i f Il m11 1t i t c tl I5I7
kth illIw l 11Hltq ull ~ u htllist l Ilt_ pulltPo1 5]d l ic llb-tl t]lVl~d l +IIl l il Jl+
W i i 7gt tilii iIiil I~ l1 01 W iF l lw 1iIN hii li Aiil iIjlti1 (1I lii iiI
hilt i i075s7Lmldtl11t-iitl i i til u 1i (1tihV t lll iwd wl lg il lll 11 lI[ lc ili tlc sgtl )S lldt-
[+gtllulii theIliv V1 lc lh lll) il lIIi~v ntll 1 j~lidei
Jt It UI) l Jlzl 1 )H IC Ct~ I ICL C d 1 1 CIi ll I 1 Ill
Ii li Clid L u eI S~i k t hVuclllls )lit l t I]I-e
I I1I tl I C J I 1 11 Cl I 11 I t IujIV11lI lit J)C 1 I I C IA 1 (~~ ]1l1
II IIIL 1 1 1 1 d II i 1 11 p I I
1 l I I1i 1 1 i Itill i l IJiut IC I I ()i t I 1 I t dli0lt~ lil w I I I II I
7 71 7 j I l I
( 50
I ) ( ) 73] 5MC
t1lt tP 5 ilinslmc cat iu+6 i Sl V+
ltlat7(U 3x 3))171 75 411 27Mini t i CM 1- I
ia u i l c ii I7 i aQ06~ 70l~lI t iI ~l 3) I lx tl 31)l
tlI ~ ~okadi gut~ix I S 9 5 7
8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
111(I ill 1 Il I( j I I (I _ I I 11 1 11 I I j I I 11 1 1 1 M I I I I I I C I I - A I C I I )()I(
C() I I I I)IC I IL 0 M11 Ill It I I HIM 1( 11) 11 ( )111 11St I wS
mid tile 11al 1111 11 Rclit)[H]w mc
1113 i I I IV I C i C t C( I I I 11C 111ICf I l 1 11111 11)()SI 1v al1ct Ill 11W () cll holklic 111C
C I I I I iIC I I I I I I I I I l II I VV I I I I I 10 1 11
c cI I I J)C I IMI A1111 1 11I I I I I I I I C
References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1
Percent
9- ~
8 ~ ____Total
7-~
I
Marrie
- - -Common
- -Visiting
I
liw
5j
I I
0 II1 Ni-IT c2I2w v---- j-j---T---T--T -T- -I Crrn g
10 02 03 05
i IIc cahllliivhil i l I 10i llh C
I II Ii sIIII
Iil kI~l
40 (I tI 1 liii Il 1
11d w
d IIIr ~d iil k V
klt
I C I ILLflC lICJill - d I ll ilIll md yc llage ag Ii en I y)
I) 2id 245 ) 3o0 34 5 ) 40-1-1 45 49)
[)LI _C c I)It+ +c ]) 10 iN1CIt+ I)jiI I ++ le ADe t Il)atIC A oe I a ec
0+(0 00i 0)01 Wt1) 0) (U) 0(0 U)0+ 00 00) 00 0(010) H)(I ) (U)1 111 (0)1 011 0H)+0 01) 11 ()0 00 0)0
I0I I 10 11) 1 Igt 1() I( i)5 00 1 2(H 1t 00 00 2 71 00 O) I) 17 14 1 07 (15
13 I 5 70 3 4 o 45 33 - 17 41 07 lo 15 1 14 1 74 2] 1 7 3 77 (( 40 4 I1 22 43
S 217 221 11 I 1- 1 71 1)4 7) 3 -17 56 74 S 193 5 I (1 - 211 I53 I02 10120) o4 52 47 1013
I7 1-17 105 I 177 I I A 13I I5 19) II 9 134 15 97 1 1 74 I- 4 23 121 11 w 125 8 08 1 5 135 12 4 101 S0) 00 1 7 15 I 10 80 6 88 108 1 1( 1114A
2(1 71 71I t5 77 104 1 13 72 74 124 0ob I 12bull 2 1 11 27 54 20 34 62 81 1 66 I22
22 21 0I 53 23 33 15 102 6 47 43 103 64 0) 04 49 217 43 10 51 21 34 43 74 43
24 06 00 23 (1) 49 20 23 31 47 3 071 21 25 38 0) 05 10 11 011 74 11 22 27 1 08 05 I6 05 34 10 34 22 2) 27
00 00 11 00 1 I( 4J II 22 10 17 10 14 IA 2 00 16 115 11 05 14 11 (11) (5
30 00 05 17 0 5 14 0) 15 16 31 10 1)0 11 1 010 07 05(15 I-A
05 00 1001 (0 07 00 1) 133300) 00 00 0)0 o)0 00) 1 5 05 - (H) 00l 00 0 0 07 00 00 (05
)(1) 0 (1 (11) 1001 1 00 3 00 09) 00 05 (7 00)
00 00) 00 t0 07 00
3 (1o (1) (7 03 07 05Q 001 00 0)0 0(0 00
-11 0)0 0)0J 0(0 00 42 07 0)0 00 0)()
1307 0( 0 0(0
N 218 8 3 226 26-1 221 184 201 17 194 148 185 13o 188
re 11S 1975 76
IIl RI1 N NIIN A I N TIRY INTO 0ome12n the peaks two53 (0 Y 0 1 I( I I w shrow same Pic vtio2csf i psI11(81 tNl N +hx )iclcre i 16c IuI 2) ac no l(e gL lt bit thu 23
AS Iclll i t lili I ilt Ililt (d All W IlICIl VIill llillo lll l) and miwais Ihiks l 8iC ( andc il(l)lllljiol I0t wcp m w d l1icl dlltl df ll Ill 11 1iili m ) ( (i I c ()oIlwl i -0l_( CIl It i1 JIM) 11I lc dli Ill llifJlL 111Ml Wl itl M io
iI ic oii] al I t Id I 1 1t) C 1e lt
i c t) i it i_it (1111 1 C ld M i~ llicC I 1 C I lik d k il whil hl f il Ifi ddhl l pcJ - f ] i lt It uid n iihli I m pi 1 ir~c il ilvVI i~ v iv 1 1 i v i 1w~c a 111l w ItIIiII i )ilcll w t l ii lh i Ii l it (l Ct Il k l - l l ii hi l c l t cs hm d 1 ik i 1l c l r tl ll i C ll Illit
ilib l~ gt l 1-1_Iu gt ltI i t Mltl iLh it - finl l tlil lll ll w lh t t 1Lt1c I lc l i h ~ l th
c lAlcn
iI I w i1c 111 m h w c l l w 1111 I l l 11
IaIbIl10 1le (Cnt I)is t u i liI[i W() ui CC ding
tuRpctu ling ol Date o1 c)imicip tihe listUniun by ILevel of luctituu
Level ut cdtIIca Iio It
1ri tnlrv cults
lt( 0
yearsPrinira wv
6 S setcolldar oIl
hilher
Vital
Snm AlS 1 75
listrilit
ind by l~epuituut Ithi late ut Tali e I I e (Cellt
i
(Type (it l eilte dt(llel-pollillg
I kvci i l
Wl
Ilpe tiof iepoltit-(1tc
lM onlth nitl M
40
5)
6)
53 (1405)
76
Ae ittih
the First tlliuun
Inll atll rear we
tiul ion
Iinty intlo)
titeltlryAge
60
50
31
47 (1300)
the First Ulnioin ly level of Iulticationt
ige alat eitry)
-IVIs SCutlliAly clll 1ltl1 Iiilluily (hy-Is Plililaly It S
I ale Agei Ii)ate Agc Date Age
050 700751 777000t 073 I 82 283 209
21 2-1 20( 200 67 41 o7
5 131 01 31
1000 10010 1000 ital 100( 0I)((0 1000
N (1 (221) (883) (876) (428) (190)
qMnnA1S14174 76
I A I IX R IN 10 II I11N 054 11tLINIDS IN (
i ilC( t1tiClduu liiliktlhoiluh l ti iltit l itllA list h1th k~llillCk 1 Itl~klliflill
Aflld W tl dt ltIlil IlCIld ill Ili IC l illII i
Q 111at W IlllVII Y 4 i llltlitd ClC ilihCItl c
I l -1 aili(itttc c Iilid i tl~ ~ - ill Illt iliw it
ltC~ll 1h CJ1ll-I lhW 1 I)illiii- I 1lt + l llwilh tciilicd
lIIIILIlit
ml111cl )l) lit lltIlwlit id
l l lllw 1h1 I l IIl d IIllt l I I 1 lill+i I 1
L ll Iltld Ill IclI I lt 1) illtlII IA iit I I I ti ( IIii
Il t tl~ I II 1 111c 111k lt 111 I1( lIIitd clt
I t( 1Ill1 I lli P I I i V tII lII + Miill
l ll 1 11 Illi I Illl 1 l lh
1t l l llmlil k J~0~tl i l Ihhitkl i lt l i l + IIIIIiiiII I ti ll1 1 l 1 +
I+
Ill h111 111itill I it11 1 1 t
l h1 11lllq t1 lt [I ) lt+t
( ij lc V V il m -i-I tl lt- IIlt
11 C illl - pll
1Ili-tIllt 1 il1
li-i1 1 ( l II~II
IJi(i it i I11 I IliltII li c(vd c lid
illillkt lt ic -k~lm
llI I I(v~~ l Is lI
IiIlllIllI 0 1 t
IiitI l llcI II( - ltc
1 1C IllIliltdI l11c 11i i ltlr
II k I I 1lt
l i l -11
1I
1
lI t iI IC I I C~iI
IIlISIIICS ii)
ileiiialil i il iut lc 20 24 yT3r oIls had iI It SI Tle StllIIIlIV
ci this tlild BIo h t ileh l iallalld
tile 11a1 Ace I Cillu i lt the+filstti utlloltSh lsnlliol Lit +il t h tlllgcsll
1 i t CclinIC ahllltl t lrlil 111t o~ldc tft li
ltit S 1llSlliIllI
al O f I IMt IMw cIt illd li I lIklli 1 gtlN IbiIll 1i1 w cli itiC31 11 Iill )it
N d
h ll 1()IV llSHl l ccliiit d til mll i11I illilmll
i i l ic ld lCtl h [ItiCttiltO licild IS+11111 1)) ich IIICt 1- lIlilt
+ I )+ l ti 111 ct~ ( ilklath e CM ilI I IA I 1i C I ill
aiII l t I I I I I 1+
lII1I~ 11HI11 l~It11 W )CHI (IllII ItWttIlI1 11 t -
I (f 1 11W + JIT - ll+ IliltlmI Iu IJIMt
li l witl~ i I l lit illo~litl i lticl-I IIdt 111+ 1 le
)-il d I
(d I I I d IlIII)I +
1t 1il-ld iIIcuiXlcI~id C1I 111t
I I
w licill
i I iIC dlt Ila l IIi 111
I I rcI I I it11 Ic l
+(tid ] 1 iliIc t tli l il
111t iC tllC11CI t ~1
lI wltm+tll h clltitll v 11ll
lit1i 1)ji(11ItICSIit
vV lilt IIIJ ) Ill Clt11 lt 1+c
1t p Iiitlli1ill)lI
it l t(Iltit i Ii I-
I I IIIt i i gtt
ikI i l I li1
tAli il itl fII l ~ IIIll IIIll I Iti ItII i ti t ii i l l 1i11I I li It I I itIl I -
IltIl IiS
Percent
t]
i5-
14shy
13-
Ishy
iishy
11 shy
51-
I 7 I
2shy
10 15 20 30 Singlh- yl-hraiontry
F~ig 3 tll i liure Po t( (fi u i m ll cr h Silt I lg lmi
(ltitItth) cx i llI [IIIv illWVo l)(1 tAceil Ilnti
f IilI ltlltllmdkli-l lw cilh rIluit cswi i tt M m ilt e ich ltioull 11M c ~ll wildI - C -tlic () 3M h lclI ITl il l ( h I
l l lI l q l
tl MA v dllll t l l h ti tll Itbd II] t p icjJk k -1Xc ill fil t Iliml I h i- t
M Olu 1 p i il lt l l l l = -l] l q lil t )11t(l h li I ~ i1 d l 1m i]l1 I ]j~l It l lII IiI I
i l i if i l l i hlixC llrl Sgtt ClI (dl 0 11liHll 1 1 W l l C t lliw f I ilil ) Illi I wt
1 1 W I M 1 I l i tl t[l hi i oml liIIII h l i gt liw d i d l ltt ld (dt I i l wJlt ji11h
l~lil lli I d1 Illcdll illlilil 1t l 1
ll liltiltl Illil tllfit I ll I klwcl lilti 1 I~ lt
lt i~lc t l i ll d i l l 1 1 - i mi Al Iw i t c li l li ) i1 l1 Olllvlc I WAi flllil gt Il h-lh) li1i111111li
l )i~ 11i11 f li il ml lllt i 1 c Il lI ( euro x JIl l ] lw I 111 lIt I i i CI)IHI)11 ll t 1 )t Ll 1 ltL I (l l j i tlt 1 lil 1 1 1l l l lil1 h l iI i d t li ic
1)-W lL lt t- 1 1 0 i1 1it 1))l11ltJ l 1111111l
Calondar date group
Ago at ontry group
35 40 43
I I1fill il lh) I irst(Illion IM Iw o (G l l s V ) cIcentIgi ving
Cmllm)cd to)IIl(cmilli cled iy vnm~uiul vhIich hadl1 dlclinl (d I c ard thc stC(IIImd t~m Plaiv (vilm lig Ihte
t Ih1
w il MI ii Is (1 l c e hl lmcd ib o v)hI isla lelIIIe11I IhI~ 1I ll ditl h cd l c il l l Ii)iVC-t Jic~ltd iIM I]IS
d ll m mi I t lb lc ( I h I I il I IlCI l llMll () I ) Ih tC ( 1 1 1 1 1-1I 1 1 1 1 1 ( 1 I lihI Jl lt Ii l l 11 )1 1 11 1 IIld II l] 11hC sm il L ii11 I i rcihcltlcili ( 1 1 tiltci lv( 11h i1lt
- ii G l i I 1 l~i l l c I l l iix l I~t)t n c w l l l t lli1i1)iq lvti II liI l I c tmll is (
klli I ll lliad iIlil i (I Ii i 1 lJiw II ll lt c lAllid l l hliIHWi+lliIlllltllll ltiii u
h1 C~i Wl lkI ( l iljl l u I l ~h lt ( dci xl Ui khc 1 t)1 1l II
m i bll IIll )I 11ml Miclll f l i t w1t c iki l I I 1 1 M i l t 1 1 1 1 ill~ tI1 l d c c C il
II ~ IIh Ilik IWA 1lll1t f II ( ~c ll
I w-Ulitl l 1 l l1 1 1 1 Il all 1 dil C Il i I~1 1
CMt I
lth ck-( 111( ii ( ill11( l w milcil( 4 ) is d c m liwl Iilk I() Sti~t
l
hI Iiittd i j it M1lIiiSes of Average Age at niy IW IIle Ilable 12 it) toi I mII I suIuI 1hIt(mmillik 2P)0cl 1 i110tIl t lit- itcixicw i 1111S I7 1 l)at
11 1 2024 30 34 3531) 40 4(1tg
5 24 138 112 05
21) 7o1 1
1)
4(1bull15
B MOii1 Mid 111a2 age
Me at cltivshy
ac 1tmill
(1 )ItCIi l- iCA ctt
(alXlcd i~m
A
Ic)
Itil
( -t11c-MN-ci I
I I 1ml P It1 p1iil (itllipi m Iiiln c1itiv
lml _cit it lit hilil ((tilc-ccii Itl iir i cit
h
-1tcltIti l tch cd
II S 7t 5 t
h e I l plicimiiilcntmi Ilcic
1i1i iMtIipJ in lthid iit b tit it is possibl- that icalin4c it
Jct -cW idcd
I -ill lic iii illll ii)w 11 I 1)illL+ view ciliiXtllttiitwh li ill lhci kil(10
llfIct Ilk- Illw il ll)1I i illl i l ll wIcIt ilucilk
W 11CCItlill thI lii1li lcIm illhl1iIlliCali t I ltl
i gt lllm li l tiliU
Ilic ilnilajiiivIn ll li ttlitl (0 IhL iiC l h l Ill J 11 flII ilt
fIhC l l i (I -h L CllIIc ii) ol l Ili-L1 I I l ld ( I
cilll iioli- ild iihlih it 1l lIi lw i bh
-cIil~Iil lIt_IVli c I I l IIII (IIt)Ill
1 lll il ~~~~~ IliI
IicIIl v i i ~ ( II sl Iax
I I I I 1 1 1 V Ii
I~~~~
IIIc I m l l li l V l
~
I I k t gtil~flitl t~ l~ l li Ilh th i lll ii itl
im ti i
ll lilII~~~~~~~~~~
6)8 738 027 568 852927 932 890
974 9456 1)O (70
985
at enitry into hi ist union iid first birth (olomnI aced
21 24 25 29 30 34 35-39 40- 44
75 179 177 186 196
8l2 191 187 194 204
187 195 187 19) 203
177 184 186 190 203
80 174 179 188 1(9 205178 188 184 194 217187 219 + 216 21 5
1)5 204 198 2(13 214
1 18819I1ilil 192 193 207
fli iiiiiiuitlikeliiotd tilling ecept those marked with an asterisk which are lcaslsquares estimates
tic mily abloit 30 wiuct12 ill
i(ttiii sCi Otittli i lICiittitieL
ace 51) hiithe lituiclitlloit i--itl
illa ilt lh 1]Illllill+I li ii lt tl ct U 1 t i~ ili
~
i1 All i h lcsit iiictcoiid siiSic ilnCIeasc l 45 19 I tu st1wMit ilt level ilt liiliiIlicst
tifs ilttetctiliil ci o i ) the iltdeliicillthec1
4 )45
5 476 817
2QS6]903
982 985
45 -49
203
209 219 203 20()) 202248
217
208
with the IliCeffect Atitli isit
ht cieiihc tluhclin I I tittm sect 07cos lii aeAl
O W 1i1lli J1 C IO Ilia 1 Ii 1 hib VCI iA Vd h UJ (1cllt
inlmVl i s lit itlxcli1 ill il~l l k) 11ji l c~cls ill i)gt11 () ccit 11 c t t ix l 1
il
( muliimiil gt lt i k l i ill wt 11 [W1villi
t~ rIIJit 1li wmodd~ k c 1 Ic 1 It ilo 1 iltd
tltclliii ti l mi It-im ilit lim t I lict
uII~i +liAl Ii iiIt()X~l CJ1 tiil1ck 11 li ll C i c
c (d w likc t vttC iiit lC
lt ill~lic
i i i 1 I Ii~ ) - ) l i I IIIl l I I I I1 -t iI II
I i 1 i1 i ii~t i ltA 1iitC Illi iI I Y i
l l~ l l~l h c t I I i ltt t l i l it l i
c lltlid I IiIi I I llc I Iiill III IC cllit~ II~iciill~ilwl~ic li Ill
il li t c tll c d l it lt] ilt d l c lt lliil~l~h ItIlil
bull- III+II(IIlllJOI)S ITIIIIS VC I IIIi kul hI w ctI a II(I
2 1 ) 1 I 111 1 1 11 11 10 sl-t1 1-1 l L 11111 10(1 I ly lcl1)MtI LI22 1 T h isdI h- lli 30 3
is ( to( risrAsi IF tCe111 i Ihgthse lil lh[IlIlllKtIld111c vud 1h1l tilt 111d C4)1]llllll CIllt tpl I - le ]li tI(HII1)S 1lti si~l 1tulw ils vtcue l111CM1lInI(-c m1 I ss (mli t ml c i I 1w milpa Pli~i ydtrxitimt titSlM e 11IpiInCLPL) i1111tmil )i(hl11u j (1)5)llIhld IntII+ Hillsll i3lAultd illfill (~tu-11d m u u t
l 11mll~ o tn36lk ) I i-ililli -311c ie 8i m t l 3 vht 11) c ck filepit t~ipw wl IIll wic ~tll Iillh1(-I 11hcc 1 kI111-k inllis- kWC1i IIW u did llw tdlht d m~la()I] Ilhi-11illI lkd lllwl i Ili illa ltt b WlIMOlilt peI1irllli wikl C 111liu l fitlIhwc mll Illau h e tllICA C I lim tI-vL11 11h fllhsu lvey w ds (11111k
)liict+l l l t f 1 7I Il 1 11 11 l 2 I l illI l 32(34illiII Illlito mi 1 l ( lllq lilclilmltJ ]fllI1n lls li mil liipilillshllill 3011llicd ) fiI(h ll ii s I1 d11 t I tl l1 1 11ll I w tcicI ( 1 visi )I t ll 1)l 1 ilInod l I( IIilIll I iIll1 li(~ gt uTI -I1A
1 I s dl1 C(1 1 t C11l111 I llI () ] wI I I I ItIl11 q 1 1 V miI )I ICll lll I it )kk h )(IIll clI II S i) clc I 1lllI i kldtc is
11 11))(d ( 1 1( I lI l 74ll p1sit w j 1r 1It lI 1 - ~ I I I)ItI I 1ItIi l kl~ll I j ( ts illl lli t hc 0l Ce i lll I VitIl I]l wid 11 7 0 b Ir sI Il (ilelusus C ll ilt HirusI(IcI 11S(iehs] I 1tusC
IihuitI 2Ilm l i If() J11h -2I lcI1d Ill)I I I(3(tllm ic I i II126IllIld V2lt1111lI ll th 48ttmill J1L Ind i -ill Lh(I t lill)C470 1 lilt 1S Ict IImS111ltlIh Illll l o jllm I Ili I I ihl~ill Illfll ilcd d ilcv il liltwllt-Il wctlill m 111 hl( ctllillIkiq lshydI )CC111l )w-V~t I l h ill11mid ll ) i111 ()I i l llllli l ll i lII Il Vt1 l C1 1 ISflhallml h h ildlh-I p w p mlilt]
liILLl1 2Ifi 1c Il)I If II i cIl Ii IcIliltI I I I ul r llI l tilllhw C1 C32l1m Iluld w ll 3il 1 1 1 32m C]YI16loWt27II] Ill Slll l 2l h )Il stl if)ic27I)1P1HII~l3QO 2i lll0ll I ] ()I) Itu utIIt l ill It I -33 kl P )1111)illtcd i1IllhltIrid lcIlI l Itill fmIll Im if mlm cl l t I khchi ic~lt 11S 1(1I111h l itI( it Ilf- 1 h f ltim retC llt~u)II ill 11 lk i pcl icial CtClIl IIIi I1 ill uil ( Ill IlV ill tm hil llltuC Ifllilml 1llill O_lelil l tisll~ I m fil c ltlh31+ ldrtl ilkT k ll illiVt IsCI(LS ilICC W V ICIIIIlVC T(I Ill Ih11C IS1l~c ill ionl tilIm llatll
l )hI13 R--o p l111 ilt (Iihlll SillllhligtlIil)[1lot] (il IPe(Clj 101 Ive-YeAl tC( )Sht)I (eI)ls Dates 1000 anr)I~it) wIthe I illioll Iis tl ()I 11hc Jllh
d
iiiflilntl i 75fili 4811 43 In III J3- 3 ~ 1 IIILI~ 1 110 4- 25 434 30 S IH SIs IIS (elsuis IIS (ellsis 1S susC(en
IIIIII+ 90( 8t) 53I l 53 36 31 28 22 T fmliti1 2(lui17 8 716 7 28281 32 25 35 334323
Vimilt
23 7 4 0 5 12 15 l1) 20 24 25 21) 30 341 31531) 40 44 IFS (Censuis I1S (Census 1IS (elusus 1F (ellsu 1IS (llsius IIS CellStJs
Ith lo~~u 75 3+ 48 21 10 17 I1I 13 Ill I12 zu 1 12 1 1 3(0 20 112 3() 47 4XSl1 51Itmillimi(I~ I 10I 10-7 9353o
Vi 32 32 27 27 20 21IliI1 10 12 10 12 0 7 1 I3 2I I c-d I -5 7 7 1) 12 I0 10 Ill I1W lH u1tI tkjh ilI d1Cfll1 ( ill 19 M(d ) bIll hldk-ltllll tIlihjkclpilllpfill lti1 I1ll iit Ift lL mI p mllllrfkIlmh1cifilk- lIlllim htill tt tI IAIT[Ll111)cpaMalk-dSCpIM flld
Xllll111c I i t-cent]hllhl 11 I ilift hw rtr ll l I ltimthldtll ill lilt+ 1-1411111 N tvi hit-d i th pm lll l )t iJclilllh h 0+ ++~ l Wdl Ill I I] lh 11hl1 Ilw llh 1 illItM llll~w m 11111lldrm~rh lt Ai lhi ~lttI m] m flA im~l hill site 11m] ]
25
ii IciitWcTable 14-i 1 ildk Ill SC ((iltil Il m 19 3 7(0 Im tile RL-1i ticii U rl
WoI IIciIi~iIciMeni 1970)1943 I161
7-14 7(1M)20 24 15 1i) 875
721)24- 21) 2(0 24 Wt 73
25 29 Soo 698 72430-3A
807 87735 39) 30 -34 822
S40 ~ 8D8 8554(0 44 35 31)
932 S8(971340 4-4 45 49) 7741 N42 9)045- 40
50 54
S13 7812(1 1 15 49 7XI
otteltv i (licii iijl ihve illi visti estillsl iti tIml timc [ on tilccidutlil isitdili ilicesn liecm e(1 les
iallliel
h l1 c sil ich r tutu si-tii it iiti e i ied ies lieL on5 itit ill51511 ilc milliliml
Ii Ct iihit ICit iltii C
i -s - li I------- i ill I - i(1) S i i Alllt i mi liItiiiit iXItiillt1 itltI(I tiIlll
Ii tit iI i tict i IM t iit i i Il t- 111k - tlIIt it i lcl d
t
IlllpIiJ11 W ill It illi hI liii (i~illlO k lit-
(Ilim lw x dll(o ld
ti- I- 1Ihitli(i1(( ill Alkkcitiii hitl iiChi tilt-gt1tll l1111 i llm~l
h l I ) l I i ) I) c k e I21 j1 t I I I I l _ I 1 1 l l l i t Ii I
at entry will be tested 1by the following measures tile length of the first birth interval file ncan numbcr of children born by given union durations tle distribution by initial type of union the distribution by union stalus over tiic ti meaii umubcr of paitners and rela ionships by
cohorts and the frequency of out-o-tiuiion births Dating Of unions other than the first will also be)artiallv cvaluated by tle rate of out-of-tinions births
Length of the FirstBirth Interval
7----Groupwhich ellic e rsatd (lc g t-ety-omitted their first union arec expecld to have a shorter me1an first birth interval since raising the (late of first entry rwould move it closer to or place it later than the (late of the first birth Summary measures of the length of the first birth interval were obtained by applying the life table aapproach (Siiiith 1980)
Age First Median third Per cent gr quartile quartile quartile who are
mothers
5 19 102 199 476 6337 20-24 87 172 369 8245 25-29 57 142 311 9381 30-34 48 121 263 9661 35-39 37 119 267 9731
i) 40-44 33 124 307 9581 45- 49 20 120 268 9589
___-_______-
intervals that e shorte[ioups have first birth r arp tna te
orlhml mi rstlut f nine Illlisthtlie tsat tha tie pmiorio inrsi o it e ofhs implies that aeitia r proportion increasing withage of womren had citier over-statedl their age hileat entering first uion or had Omitled
- the ue alogether sonc may hefir nion While births c oultsie union it is ulikely that casialconceived of any
relationfships would acout for such a high propor ion of first births and that this should increase by age groups of womnc the studmy by Roberts (1975) found that tilie freq nency of casual relationships was ullite low
More detailed information is presented ill table 15 giving the per cent distribution of five-year age groups of womenby age at enlry into the first union by length of the
first birth interval inclulding the mean length The meal length of this birth interval does stealily become shorter as
ge iiincreases liltIough the age group 410-44 is an except in Ilie mean length drops from 15-16 moitlhs al ages 15--19 ail 20--24 to 124 at age 35--39 rising slightly to 138 for age gr I 40-44 finally steeply declining 84oup and to months for tire 45-49 age group To give a general +erspec tive these averages may be coin pared to averages in oler (colntries such as Thailand aid Fiji of about 16 22 months and in GIyan of 20 -25 months The implication here is that the length of this first birlh interval may be n mid et S ill ala ica hut mnore for leestl for all age groimio1dei age groups amil worst of all for ti1e 45 49 age group wit on thsI its iie an of 84
The per cent distribution iii table 15 shows tIhat within 111age groutps womne i who entiered tlie irst 1i iion at Iiigher ages were more likely to have large nega ive intervals [lie
coincidence of these two factors strongly suggests that women who gave highcr ages at entry had cither overstaled
their age at entry o omitted their first unioil Sincc aI higher propiortion 61t older women entered lhei firstunion at high ages their average age at ntry would also contain a larger upwaI bias than that of younger age groups The
vidlence definitely points to some overstatement of age at first union either directly or indirectly by omitting the first unioa and supplying the date of a second perhaps more stable union as the first This was true at least for women above age 25 bul with overstatemeti i directly with age
Children Ever Born by Duation
If overstatement of the date of the first union or omission of the first union caused unusually short birth intervals it is likely thal the second aid further early births may also appear to occur t ( close to fihe date of the first union for Sithe same reasons- Co test this the average number of births ccturring 0-4 5-9 10-- 14 and 15- 19 years after the date of tle first tillon re presented for each five-year age gIrou in table 16 It is interesling to note tie very high number of children born il the first tive years for womei aged 30 and over combined with very small increases duhring tile next five-year period and actual decreases from the 5-9 to the 10--14 duration group For example it is highly unlikely that women currently aged 45 -49 and vlio first enlered a union 0-5 years ago would have had ail average of three children each ill that period of time when they would have been between the ages of 40 to 49 suggesting
that the duration is incorren-t If the dmiration is too short then the supplied date of Cntry is too high Al though theitulmibers of cases in some of these groups are small the existence of the patterii for all ages 30 and over suggests that it is not a spurious fimiding Moreover severe overstateshyment by a small number of women can significantly affect the mean age for example if20 women gave ages at entry Ihat were on average 10 years too high this would add one year to the mean oftl age group that had 200 women Some of these age groups have about 300 women and incorrect ages may have been given by more than 20 women in a given age group so the effect is by io meaiis trivial
Distribution by Type of Initial Unioi
Another way of testing the hypolhesis thai some age groups have oversiated their age alt first union is to see whether time prolportiois who began in visiting unions vary among age groups The jnstification Ir this test is that most women began in visiting unions l this reasonindlfor alone if early unioiis are omitted most of them will be visiting unions In addii given that both common lav and married unions Ias( toger aniiat least marriage carries a higher social stalus ran kiiig these types are less likely to be omitted as initial umions rlhle 17 shows that file proportioi of younger women who begili a visiting union is higher than1 tle euItivaleni ploortioi for older woliei A columPrison ofthe age goups cim be me ifwe assunic that all womeii vho have never entered a ummio will begi iil cit hlm a coi1ion law or married tin ion al a Iiylpotheticalmid con stroct distribiUliOll 01lo i tMliolis by iii ial tillIoll (ci)lu i is a5 amid 6 of tible 17)
VC 11 I lItI L I I I I a 6 1111 i 1 1 1 I L )IIIIiN III tLI Iic i I i ( I I I -I isiI i w I IIIII 1t IiI I wl I Ii
ail 2 p2 13 21X( if-I 7 8 I) 13 III 1 39 37 4i8 4111 i(-Mciik15h1 () 0
I In niltl 0l5 1 IW I8 M3 2 -72 I I 5 )1I 78 ( il 151 IC -92 II Il( )0 0w0) 1--I 59 225 1 1 11 II I I l 11 1W9) -12 71
S H 50 25 Ill ) 9 l ) 1 25 (0() 00 121I-
7171TTI Il 0J 29 2I )3 109 10) I-13 I-1 1 I11 5) 35 43 161 46 1 I l 0)L1 00 00 25 7 I) I1I 101 175 101 I01 I_7 79 I- It 03 102l0] 2 I 117 106 9 24 29 339 7I T1 70 3 47 1411 1(93 18h9l I m I0 23I13 00 00 43
H- hlll 59 33 45 85 I0() I181 r11 ) I129o 58 29 65 147 448 t 100 0 00I 0 8l 5 II 1(7 23) 70 14 141 71
lilI IIi 30 52 11 1) I 131 1-I 97 94 34 67 267 2 71 2571 1 51 101 X12 131 I 91 152 3 340 30 10 ML)
()1) 10(1 1()I) (H) 00 1( 5 7() 1 0(1 1 5) 100 0( 017 79 -57 34I 00 91 00) 10 22 1I (101 00 I lIs73 00 00
3 31 al 15 30 361 1(7 2(11 1 77 121 -17 25 L3 13 1 3 4 (0 00 00 12 I 7) 158 79 53 1015 38
I 05 25 41 () 53 2 10 7) 132 5 25 50 21212 I15 20 2 217T 7 15 ()5( 12-1212I ] 1411(O 91 1731 5 15 6314)1 462 53 405 73 0 53 31) 0(1 I03 448
25 2I 412 (10 00 0)0 IN2 I IN1- I118- 59 5) 011) (10 17
3 ntl 0 2 5I A2 7 M I SO 1 11) 59 42 7 I2 354
Is H 19 31 -12 9)I-n 2l 11 IlA 83 17 39 l)2S 17 12 52 1O f 736 I3 I 52 31 3147 73
IllII 7)) 29 I6 I125 II I i I01 I 1) 4 1115138 31342
15 Io I D 25 ll 53- iI I 1) 117 31 3 37 14A 739 1s 11) 3 591 11 1 1) 1 1 0( 15 6A) 45(7 5 3692
0 7 7 1 7J (7(5 A I 3J 9j( 1 43 31 () 32
bull 1 TW l 3() 11 00 0 I 7j 4 9 5 11 ) -I 2B)mI I 3 Ti )1p 13 118 5 AtI 53 12) 18 5) 118 17 1 I0 1111 118 30 (1 I33 33 I_11 (5 I 3 (8 31 11 133 1 19 12 51 51 1I 15 3 12 14 71 31 1051 1) 70 24 Tol 77 j I 77I 15 7 00 177 Ms
81) 0I0 0 00 1 S 1 1 ()5 5 1)) 107 21I
Talle 16 Mein Numbci n(Childleni vi Bmiu by (Cureni Atle M Dittati (imps- 5 to 15 I)
C u tl Y e Is(d IIlillld)lilioll
bull 17C III 1Ig t 21) (1gt1 I )11126 )
211 21II 13 ( )A ()-1N) (0) 2$ 2 J 15 (130 (21-) I(134) 52 (11) 30 31 2 (3) 31 (81 12 (180) 56 1)
33
35 27 11 1 )5 5333l5l
bull10 (111 -13 (211 40 (37) 5o1 (l1 -i) 31 1j3 3(1 (201 31 (27) 4o (47)
I I ) lllt in riILkL i I i I tf ll llIllil 11 Il CI tll
IbliC 17 I uillill i 1hlll illW il I Iliol ) HICii 1v Ipe hilitail
a) ]pC I n lii lo iI ell Il l lh ll edisilii llioll
-~~- -- Per cent ~ ill liell (lllldllllo n law Visiin lilevelill Malrried and Visilil
C lllawa lllillll )lllll
I 1 s89 123 2787 0
4 103823 12 2) 71) 10 3)1 56 753 13 2(
5 100 170 730 31 7
0i 11 S) _0) 718 12 2 71 01 I98 716 15 2() 71
lt-1111111111 1 HII rI l1|IlIII 1iiii tlllI t ilrIh llt kiIIWtll 0 11I l Itl ild cl vi I Illal ict w lilll ]lk IIIIllI
II Iii v
1I 1livtiil II Ill il t I(ilI( 1 t eil i h pcii(ll Il
bi ul l i l lk lI- l6i le
lillilhcitiwi kl 11 II 1w lilt pcallcp11 i lli hs gt fii llc iilhuw l ti
lch ill hill 1t i() t itm l 1 i li )p il ll ll I (ithlet I
iA il I11 1lti1gt11illol lI t liml g
l+ l M i I1 1 1+ i d1k I l I II vcJtli lll 1 lt lP Il bull I Il k Cll p mI lip 111 l I il i C II k i i lI
llith l
ll i f I 111 ll lp l tj e ii l i l l l C-t
lt~tlll~lll~i i hbc l 11c1Ciw111
~ Iltllii~ I1lt IIIL~ ~ c 11~ ~~ ~ 1 gt l t
Illl iIitl i t~~iim tlIh Iil l i ii
i ltf l fl l w II Ii cIlli
t~l1 I i l I it l 1 1 tiihi A Ill
ilIl 1 iiI I 1 ilwoi il t
lt ti lhl
lii I iii 11 d
i t 1 I111 i - i 1 I lM
q~~l r it i k li o I lilL II ll 1ll
IIh il I ll iI M 0II I IlIi ) 11 a el c led 1 1l ciw IIl 1 1i sI4 l
3 illl id d i AIWiI ( ll 4i11il l Iatli Mh I1i C Pf
~l t I ] c lti l lt l~ l gt V il tl Ial R cl N pIIodbV oll o ifi il l i ol
d 11IAti l q l lklI i l ll ll I l Wil lllIl I l lis
I lIm i l m I1l11~ll IIltl ( l l X J ll
l iV-(Il l I l vi IlilUliliibm I
llh I 111All i ] lt i t c 1
cliaqli ll f il IIi-llihl clll i ck ll tlll l llt
11 1c~~ I)ltd 1 111il I lic Ili iw
I i l 1 ll I rc Wm llw ll l ll 111 1 i I 111 111 h
l i ll I ll ii llt i cl m
xC i ll U I 1 1 I I dl l ) i~ 1 i
lill lt l illit lw l
JW lII l 1 lk i i 1 t l l itII I
t l~l i mi l I 1 lit lt ll 0 1i li t
Table 1 Per (cit lisilibutiii hiu1nion Status over I)ifferent Time Periods and Sumnury Indices of
Ploporl ions inDiffceit Iiionl]Tpes
Ni)I inl
Nlrrid (n1ilno law Visiting ninOll I otal (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
265 032 10001971 75 10 87 11)66 - 70 15 95 264 625 1000 I (1 65 21 107 22_7 645 1000
956 60 I 9 84 208 689 1000
51 55 17 103 171) 701 l00
1)4(o 5 13 78 129 77) 1000
20 24
1971 75 133 292 303 272 1000
196 70 140 275 293 192 1000
] 0 144 258 262 337 1000 1S (0 133 259 259 349 1000 IQ51 55 119 225 247 408 1000
19)4(o 51) 1)0 211 471 1000
25 29
171 75 291 350 190 170 1000
1966 70 315 323 163 1 1000 1961 (5 310 324 167 199 1000
150 ) 287 30I 182 230 1000 I1 1 55 228 277 206 288 1000
31034
11)71 75 400 321 126 154 1000 1)(l(70 394 313 121 171 1000
1)61 65 411 295 125 168 1000 I956 6(0 342 308 138 212 1090
~5 3)
1)71 75 405 269 98 169 1jO 0 1)66 70 484 253 93 170 000
191 65 443 263 115 179 1000
40 44
1)71 75 5 14 206 74 206 1000
196 70 480 204 110 206 1000
15 -19
1)71 75 473 171 82 275 1000
lIbmlrileSmv( SilI1h anod I i-l 11991
ali d le (l de c i untlikclill) I(Him lile )ti itill ()IiiIssiIoi lh palllCSi oCCtrr belowr ite ile d le of Illioll A
t Il COIllpI il Il ioiS WilJCill NI v eIicL lhat _ c c (ll l( ertil )it1C 1CCIItIllIdLt i bKhIlicl lsliip-+ Oeli clc I lil]t a L hi lnd hiilici I mi i alim hiw lS i kICll )niiid l illL hils il c It i l
s
(i l i SixI nI)ntllsi l lI ItIlIsl1-tlli)llit liltt)w l Ill ill ill ~ kh 15 -| )l1th ilth i tilC Itull1110 1 111 1ltc l lilt ll 1I J tlllitlI
(lilli lil 1 1J li l li1citd h 11 ) th 1 11hIll m)dcl (d 111C ich lio)Ilgthic d+()) l11w -h v111111k I-lill
i I ] r 1711~l 1 1111 tlc ll l 1 l ]m)l~ )gt~I m 1 i111 l) lilt (d1 il) l 1 b l 6)clc
w iw h1 )1 lit tii ildiillii ll)--l) lll ) l~ 1 h ad[ Iillt ) hi ] t v l lccd l1lihilli
iable 19 Mean Number tf Relatilships and art iers f0 Five-Year (ohorts of Women by Five-Year Age roups
(lr111l cumulated nlmll l ationships at aqx T[otalilla11 i of
- _______ eanage - - - _______________________ 111~------
I IQ 20 2-1 2 29 30 34 35- 3) 40 44 45-49
1 I) [ n 046 2 24 11o 1831 183 25 () ()tL( I93 12331 233 S31 100 187 _43 12651 265
08 168 221 254 12711 271 (0 41 00) 144 203 237 264 12781 278 45 P4 05() 134 185 226 2-52 274 [2811 281
I I tltI1cls
(ilIcm (t1tlatCld mean ntumiber ofIpartners at age Total
ilmeall1I 1I 20 24 25 23 0-34 35 39 4044 45-49
15 I 10391 03)2I 24 008 11451 145
0-1 14Q 11751 175 3u I- 147 11921 1Q1SS 11(4
z 072 132 1 185 i 941 ] 94
-M 04I1 116 152 171 186 [105f 1)5 5 -1 002 11)7 137 162 175 185 ()()1 190
l 11111h111 hi~il illl I kL l tidll ki th 11c palrtntr1) ch tiltt t l ionl c2 fro ml visilil l k l e lltni mk ll e un t) Inarrlied
l l ~ IIn L~i ll i t k IIII)IC Ct lt Il I tI h Ii 1 1 tII LiCI I c I
1 1 1CiIIII l l t
Fible 20 PIctcml ec I Ici ilc(i ep i Fall O(utsidCwhich 11ilitiui ICTiOLIs 1y Order of Ilirtih AndI()idokIROLOWii1hil)(1l
lithtt(dci Rec ilitllshiip tidcu
()idclu (tl I CCit ICCili riiic Iciid ciwci Number of births biiti ouit ielaui bt WcCisidc of tlllilli lisliips
By tltlt relatiimiships
37 ) I is8
2 17 I 2 284SI 1 2 3 131
-3 4 44 5 7 4 5 I (1 6 i -6 7 5 6 7 0
5 7 8 0 9 4 I() 3 II2 12
ltli birt is 1- 10177 1-170
id (I Itl 1 11i IIitk I kc111 ~~ Ilil1al]I ld i1~dci hl A 1I p Ji lcl dl~ -wtc~ttllhiild mldel 5id111 (dltilt I iCClIU ty WtS()I tlliOtl a1 Ll AiC
in ii lc llio I h iliiii h1 il li al I ld lt i p (d~i h h i l c lu t 11 il a vlll) I lt llll w lt
I
illll v l lt i~l~ Iii II t~ il~ I lil q i i i r~ ri tt 1 i~ Il gt Ilt ti l+ 17 shy
Illit~w 11) Ow 1 I 11 M It I11 11[il
ill iil l l_ t Ill c i
v
eabl Pacrc2nlac of Biloh occuriiO ()Iside f any Inion at (MinHivLYeai Age Chottip rom IN946- 50 to 1971 7521
AtxC 1971 75 It) 70 INO1
15 I0 20 25 31
2(0 24 11 13 19
2q 3) 3-1
gt~39 -40 -44 45 4()t
Cj ldl l iis(I illatiMiislij) ilh
vitinc iUnion is
olohl it h 1ve IIi Miy he miie likel hii eLioltI cirliaI elti iulihilp l
iilic Inwii illl hic i y 1he oi i)i at the ilint ti ite illtel iew ii1 h iiil o icillied llel -
It 111dilltIkhe Illl l llI (1I lil( Illn cllil-ltllilyq
S I 1 6 8 7
0) 62 6 7
as t eady plrttne IV ic is tie Way a d iSCtiO ill lie 1UnStio i ulilirc even
in weer ullcel
mIay not heUicoLtigtn a sexual
ielild inla it hilll IhI
65 1956-60 1951 55 1946 50
33 1()
12 5
wotld he stiotoiu It) Conception w e etiel ii the
hirlhiN teV colld welvl
tilei thl hilhl i in t_tVcrall _
ill
32 37 16 18 13
l ci Ihlea is it ctlgc)im iii eOIo me
ili tile u ion loki r is 1it caipll l-ncis i lii l e(id lvl )Ht -- li(
i -ci ieii l htie i Illishy0iiV lW di p Ilull Of I1 ylki ieIIu iieJ il-CllI a
i l i l lI lai (I caclh child linkini the
l ll i 1ii li1 imuch (d i l iishyIll 1116011~ll
----
6 Evaluation ofFeilility Data
(IliIll sitiiitl we will look at leaiIaLS Ot I-ltilit v Io of such I rise in fertility is examined in the followingCVllItllIC Slle reSllt i thi e - iiid ltec ellIl ilj ill sectioni i Cllrelit lc tililitv
I iie t (tollil lisoll ()i the to ilc os thatl Ior hothl1W h tl wil hii thl lilt It Mlt It I 1111lthld lcliuli l CeIn Is ss the c ItIS tCll l~ ill l s Ile fertIility l) Imciii llll t1 Il li his ilel kleliteill-1 F i i tl 1111cti I1i1 ild IL ile tJtI t) Ie ee l i iti 5 2iieIk t t IIi I 2 e IIsel A I_r]hdiii lv lltnjil tiS 1IL ver 1tes171 li lie i I iict in v2 lltlll et l 1liiti dil olif c5 ) (lR RIIt l Al 1 (L
hil l4 )hll))tl i ll IIt lI23 llk i Cio3le I the Inll2li lse Ili Iw IC)l) I )i ll itI- l l ie I 1 1111k ie llthtie t_ 11 1lt 21l Cileld tii l eeit li beIut+
_)O (w t t e th 1 +7 L-lItt 1) li
1111l l d l itw l l it I I) -4ir ll l Ih t i t ill tll vi llhte t tu (M d Ill 1111C U 11rh2et 11il kl 1 B1I - li inI tll d i CUlc Ck lIlA Ill 11 th CI tC I l i ts LlllleD I e 1 1 e I lI jL W l c lie eliiti 211 vl t illli it Ace-speeIttlPi tei tihts+ 2 eict1 e il l ich gs i ltl -ei t [it cdt
ii -()Ithci (7 1~tllle I1 h t - III hl 11ti t-it 11 1)3t e1111hc[ 1kiil ii ll I lC titl IW1 t- I I I-I WhVetI ~iI IC IC h I lCCCNAN I (12)Fi~4i t[A1 lli kII tI 1 21h - l kI 111 ( -1 o l II ( 1il 4llrtests
- 1W l I tl I1I t11 h l111 1 W IiI ll1)( 11 l v II I IIit 1 11ulMdIl 111C Wt11 Ill hhe CIl I ll5() 74M l~ l e
c I t I 11 IIc I~I~l1111IlI IlI5e C111 I L t~ p hI t lt + uIItI
lcmlul+cllhlln ~(~~ ~~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -o~ ~tr ~~~~~~~~1le ILIfta ShMI 11 lttCal1ticd l ll IhiyJ[IC 23 ]01hIlvl(t1) ( 74l Jilltihli lt lh ( t l vdlll li e l i t 5 lIill -t i le s l+L i L I M l S1- iHil~~~~~~~~t+lc~]t cl tl+ l+( t i li at i 111Ci l - tcI IC el CI ( l k lI~ l llpkx
+t~l~ ~~ ~ ~Wit1 II ~ thIs~ )iril nI I+l I I d itI IleIitI Ilkll h ~ J+~nll~-t~ ~ ~ ~~~ Cu It)lI U I Ii ~
t + l+n l tI c
P I+I~ i ItI _C IIIlI-i ItIIi IiI IllV e II I Ii l +llhc I I a 1l i ilh dI I~lf 111II I(11l c St i[l I l fhl e l l I L1h1I II ll I lier
CC-I--I-- I -- - --- - -I- CiA-- lcm - I-----1--- -l - c -l-il li I- i It k tf n idl -l n it l I tlI 7 f iltl h e C -111lll i Illhe l lili II tI l t L ll liL 1 1Ll 11 W11 Cll ( I 3eurou-1n ole- II i117 Ict iltcI t III n c 1) 1ttillliI IIn I ICl ilt Ttll Vud 1l l l] eIt t iHiC t11 dhc1~c~1 l11il ll] ) Il~ilil I it 11)e
Ill l i i eI I1111111111111 tutIcIII l I hIhcicl I~I~t iI IIil~IIillcl c IqI clh II IIII 1 IC IIIA I II c m- I iI _)IIII i0 2IItil iCI Ieo I11 i C I Ihp h Ih IIt Ilk l l ( l~ iui ive cu tilc l~I Ilc thel l 10l cII I li ilt III Ia l i it Lcl
IiI Ih 2 I~l II ll1 h~ ( il itII li I tIIIe CItll I l III (i i 11 ll i I If Cli1 1I c( l I )11ii I 1 le Iilil icltdI I rwtli ti T1 IP i (11itt I (IiII Lt hIC W- n- i I r ed I )il( CI Idl l ) 1 CI III IIIh k1 H tS C I 0 h
It~l I1)7(i i 71-T
2~ eldh I L ~1 (tlt cllstll I1S (Ct iISII1N5
1~~~C I ttliLII I IN tL I
f )4 3 13 3 l+00( 4gtt 143 MYl 0) 43 II I
0333
---
IIIdi 1974 I jnd ITable 23 C-S4 cii l i(I(itdl(gtII l11 lli RIwI hILI( Ycar 1)50 m lheJl ziS
35 39 4(0 44 45 4-P II) l
(jcil II)14 15 I19 20) 2-1 g 3t 34
231 35)24150 I 20 247 shy151 24 157
5 7 -10 14
1952 3 l1029
I1 13 I51 20- 234153 11 253 261I )54 10
155 13h 231 274 231 21)9 (956 12 145
((57 21 174 284 272 -shy
()5 I 29 7 296 272 -- shy
(5k) 14 I80 28S 2 ) 262 -bull05 -(1) 24 185 25-4 304- 264
2 245 217IQOI 28 1 2-r 5i Q 060
I6 0 6 168 27o 266I )n2 20 184 315
67371 248 190(003 14 171 287 191
11)(4 7 184 2-73 1Q7 205 - 65 TO-703 208 30(0 2S7 322 211(965
104 62)9) 185 322 275 206 ])I 8 141 297 3(0)0 232 127 - 5)
8 171 278 26 217 207 44 00 56225 243 147 65
3 164 257 587 20Q 266 271 211 137 56 --55
5 13 2S7 233 196 132 66 22 57124 54273 272 214Ik) 8 172
(9 2 a133 245 234 187 132 68 13 51
H174 12 12 253 213 172 55 0 4
BI )gec-speciic Icr~i~fel OCIdesr -im s(9jtjicst (5) 1063 1070 977 ])78) amd census (1970) 40)
5() If2r)il4y 10-2 1r8() 14 09 6
) I 1 1106 231 21)1 115 100 34 6 41 37 7 42
In52 I03 24L) 203 (47 In 6 4321Io 150 1(1 371(53 1 10) 240
100 40 454W54 I (8 252 228 16
25 2o 24 100 10) 38 6 48i(55 7 50I5(32 274 253 (76 11- 41) 8 5 12( 3 24 1115 123 13
)57 0 Il1 124 43 8 534o W I 43 53
5)SI 14) 299 251) lo
I 15) 307 2 -1(1 135 5(1 8 57
((6) I 155 21) 2010 1o 136 4) 95
I(62 2 1-18 193 2-1 ( 4(0 -17 8 50 2 8 57
()63 2 14) 288 71 227 1
2 1) 244 215 155 (29 45 7 4o
76 29 4 37NA lO 13 (84 12
26 - 3o) 112 75177 NA3 (I6
(41m4 vitil lis
( 1 N 107 3 91( 127 47 S - Ilt)4 ol wmkl114c ai1l
C I I ) I I
I( Li IlI rel lI)1 l 1 1 IhC1 rr j141 I II LI[ 4 i I T Il444 i 4I lCI l4 4 It lT(I Ii14t tlll I MIII N
whihIJ1 V1) CI I p 1t I 4i nl I I h I 1h4 141(41 I1 1 T 4 4iiJd I lhcIIr1
SIf jiic 1llt h4 ihcb Ii)cpII)l 01li i itt J
44 14 IlIIi l)711 1I d t 1w I i 1 I47 I1 Ile41 u44(uhhi I d 4 L11 I14l( I II
the case however since even at ages 10-29 the increase based on vital statistics was 29 per cent -
The cumulative fertility rtes from tthe census and the survey also showed a fertility increase as mentioned in section 61 Fertility rises have also been observed in other Caribbean and Latin America populations during the samei period This fact and the agreement of the three sources census vital statistics and survey about this trend further
--7z-support-its existene-The-reasons for increasing fertility are shydistrssed later in this chapter
The differences in amount of fertility increase shown by S- the two sources indicate however that one or both sources
are incorrect It appears likely that part of the 36 per cent increase shown by the vital statistics rates is due to improvements in coverage of the system The vital statistics rates are clearly underestimated but the ratio of the total fertility rate (TFR) from vital statistics to that from the survey shows that the amount of underestimation has declined over time for 1950--54 1955-59 and 1960-64 these ratios are 074 084 and 089 respectively If under- registration was the same in 1950-54 as it was in 1960-4 the increase in fertility according to vital statistics would have been only 12 per cent Comparison of the number of children by single year of age in the 1960 census with vital statistics data on number of births in comparable years does not help since the census underestimates children relative to vital statistics as well as being affected by emigration
A further factor which will be discussed later in this chapter is that the survey data may thenselves over-estimate the amount of fertility increase if older women tended to displace the dates of births closer to the survey date This would have resulted in an artificial inflation of the level of fertility in the mid1960s and an artificial cnlargei t of the increase from the 1950s to the 1960s The later discussion shows that after taking all factors into account tile amount of real increase was probably about 10 percent
Froiml the early 1960s to 1974 the annual rates show an overall decline of about 20 children il the total fertility rate during this period The decline was fairly steady but fluctuated somewhat from year to year probably because
of a combination of reasons such as age heaping displaceshyment of births sampling fluctuations caused by the small denominators of some cells or real variations in social and economic conditions Five-year averages ire shown in table 24 to adjust for these fluctuations These averaged rates show a decline of 10 child for the same period although if the rapid decline within thelast five year period 1970-74 is accelted then the decline up to the mid-1970s-is-closerdegto 1-5 child but not-as mucsas-2 child which the annual rates show
The rise in secondary education and the existence of a strong family planning programme in Jamaica since the I960s makes the decline plausible The level of use of contracepshytives in the country was fairly high as seen both in the JFS 1975 survey and in an earlier 1972 survey for example the JFS showed that 66 per cent of women ever in union had used contraception at some time in their life anid 45 per cent of exposed women were currently using while even in 1972 52 per cent ofwomen ever in union had used at some time It is difficult to evaluate the JFS fertility rates because after 1963 there is no continuous record of ageshyspecific rates from an external source Crude birth rates (CBRs) from vital statistics have shown a decline of about 30 per cent from the 1960 rate of 42 to a rate of 29 in 1976 or to a rate of 28 according to the 1975-76 JFS Standardization of the 1970 birth rate assuming the 1960 age structure to be the standard raised the CBR slightly from 344 to 354 and a similar standardization of the C13R based on tile survey population raised this survey CBR from 280 to 300 These increases show that emigration has slightly reduced the proportion of women aged 15-49 in the population between 1960 and 1975 Nevertheless the bulk of the fertility decline is not due to age-structural change It is noteworthy that even in tile late 1960s Roberts (1968) suggested that despite the use of period fertility measures during 1943-60 the lack ot a rise in completed cohort fertility inplied that fertility decline might be imminent aid thlat the family planning programme was beginning to take effect
The recent decline in fertility found by the survey may be evaluated by comparing those age-specific rates which
Table 24 Age-Specific Fertility Rates Averaged over Five-Year Periods from the JFS (1950-74) and from Vital Statistics (1950-78)
Period -10--14 15-19
A Age-specific fertility rales from JFS 1950--54 15 134 1955 59 13 159 1960-64 15 178 I
1965 -69 6 174 1970- 74 7 162
20--24 25--29 30--34 35-39 40-44 45--49 TFR
1975-76 234 258 57 266 280 249 61 286 299 252 191 64 291 271 244 171 55 6] 265 245 19)6 123 60 12 54
13 Age-snecific fertility rates from vital statistics N50 -54 I 108 23) 207 1 - 99 37 6 12 1955--59 1 137 275 254 183 120 41 7 51 1960-) 2 1 295 267 218 110 50 8 7 1970 2 119 244 215 155 129 45 7 46 1977 - 78 NA I115 205 182 1 76 27 4 36t20 I colnputnLgTFRs for tIhe suirvey the Lintty cells are estimated by the rate tor ihelater five-vear period
35
L M l l l( J Pul 11 I t uI ~Id I 0k0 IcA VA l 1) 11-110111 0 XI [i1ll tH IIIch li C I 1 1~c ceurow I e p l kl I i HI a
tilld I I A I 1 JL 111C illt()cidl clli l I mi I c l it il li t w llc inAl Ii- i d Iwi i lelli H L
c10oi h il J3im 110 )4tl oc l tllt11til -iik]~ 1 1 Ii lhio tile SIIVC M t lli I I 11) l 1)-1 l kIkllc Illh
i[ l~li Vi l I I i1 ( I 7_ t 1 h II 0 7 1 liI l e b L Itd1 1l I lIll 1 ilil centh i I I~ l
tth~ d l 1i ) 0 cl nlt Il i llli i l mill f() it lI- lC 1f i I l lr l k et 1i 1 11 11 c t 1 1 1 Iii
) it)ltltt i Iamp ti t l- ~ I c=tl l 11 o 11 11 In1 A I i-I +1 - iCI t t i0) li~ I b c cIv t t l1 t +
c Itll l 111 11 A Vlid Clli I 1 Ik 1CI IH i i ln d IIL 1 Il II I I i ll 1 1 t lVIL 0 i )l n k Ill t d l n I l c i t t 1 11
l hl I 1 Ic l i -I I hci 11i A l-j II I ( I I l v1) 1 1c )I l7 il l 111d e 11 i - p l l i i I 1 1i h Id-
Ilt It k Ii It lld ld]l 1 1~ I uuIh Itll k I I II 1 11j) I 1 IHid I It P1I i I 1cI Si l t jjjj
II- i1l l 11i I 1I 111 I IIjIII IV IkII L l ICt I Ill( -II ec ) i d I l I l Ih 1t 1 1 i k
I ll w I c i I w ) I I t ll - c t A l kl- Is lll l1 1 t I t i -Mitlet ltI ( t 11c l k+ ]I It ) m l i
I nt l i 1 1 1 ( 1 t I 1 q i I(I w((jId lI ) I c I I J I I I I I I I Iie Ac l) 11 IICO Vl1 I W kY k i
gtll 11 1l I~ I l lII l II II l li ll it 111 y c x l aill L c h lk l Il eptI I ( II I Il
ilt [h r 1 i lt It lc I 1 lol li ll 1I I u ks cII Ie ( eItoI c(I ciiII IhI Wlt II I tl -IIIt 1i I lyIll I l l l ] lt l-
tl I l flit iccll ill l IO l t)5ll ITli lInd u O d ~ h cAl iIcl l Ili -I llwnlilnl l
i Il i p t I 1T1 ikc k 11ii m mIb)is l tl-illli i ) l l r li l l euro L ~ l ~ tl l t U l l
it+it -1 I - v AI+lt11 t i tt t li llh l rlhLs mw c yc x o dlllu l ll l l l i lca 1tic l l
l di 1 tt 11 P 0 1 Mi ) tll iHcc iIClt C tile~ SIC C ICiLl f CL 3Sirroit ~llmlltlp(d i llt lkil
-~il ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~( i il~l Ii (Il k1 IhO d lk I ll h l 11)ill(lilIii ~ 11](101 ~ llc il (Llt~ltI IICnl CM) l i
i~li i [ Ji( i1 In w i Wl p c ll Knieiii ltIll (di iddu)i~lt 11) lx l iiil Jicl P )-() lill lt ic hih st e M en J ok ei n
i l TTl i d I 11 St ilti li -CKI 4I M C S Cpjc 1()llJl- l lt iu d Io ilctie p )~ l I i
I C 11S LJ ( l i17 1 i I nI II 11 1l1C II I ic l i~I t hlil i h [ 1 1 11 ltl W I C
-11]lilt I h Il hk 111itll Ih c ll kpllm (l lI it i l lilitc l)ir ] iL ]l h i i lh
c tllt In elriIt l il l 11k i l Ilh euroA Al i lj w l i t l ll- Ll w i I I It R im li il I
t i IA l t I t lit i ~ i c i i l l l ~ k] i lld i C -l I l i Jc1(itl i 1 h l~ lln i lit l t~ c
i ii (l i 1 l1 l I t 11lil d I r cilw It11 it ilia gt h I i icltl - ltll r l 1111 h
ll11 n I J11 111 11 P l A 1I 111 h k lI I w l -IIh tili 1c irl vlli11i d ol t11 l Illll Iiltl l ji Olll l k t t l v- 1i1 dill ll lt ili ll ~ l hw -liipkk)tj l I l i
i 1)lt l jw l )shyJill112 II i I i lli) IIt f-I - iii lIl-i kd
i~II ill ill-I l i (ljll 11-11l Vi1110 I I tll l lh k lit
cll~~~~f~~~ct kili I l pl l IgtilInji l k i llit Al~t I ld I li c lt l J ltil it
A 1 i ll l ltl Iti Il I 1~L )I I l h i i- vIlt- l~ ~ ~ l t c i l ltl Iiii 1[ Jt 11 C(JAIA ltlit itl 1lt liJ IJ
h ll dli 11 I dijlll h1W idlill Itv il-ii lll l l -icltil I Al od i I 1 h tL 1h Al tlld
l 1 l M 1 Ctllflttd 41l1 111 1illlt Ap ll cli 1 il it]~H ) i 1 I 1 11t
lt A 1 III i 1r I I~- I iIiIr IlpI lt Il l l h i -i - li)l~ l l l T I
I 1I~ hi i
1 r l i i l t Illl III II 1 lt 1 1 n I t I I I Il glil l I IclitiiIl( l il
c1 1 A P~ lit~h h ill t I l-I Him-l o l i~ l t l II 11 LA-11llIi I~~ i -t 11li till 111 Illl
~ ~ t~ ~ ~ ~1 t1 I Ii] 1g llll it 1J ~~ iIic ~ ~il~ hic-~ tI~ ~ ~ lt it ill I 111li-1 d I d I
11 ) Ii it lt i l l d mi il ll l1i~ l i ld l
I in I It l p i dI I i I I it I Ic li I l Ih i 11 il th II r Il pd ~ i t j d J l P [ I
L i l 1 1i nI 1i Ir I i n d1 lk d I )oi jigcl l Ik l ilti l p lk ) lt1 29 l h l I r i
A nd 1 Ili ltI d I I l L Ih -I I 1 i]
l I i-i l IHill I I i h t-I ci tl -A ll Cl P 1h iltm T h lt m Il ic-d Idii 11i
l~ i l lt Il n lc J ll( 111 oi dd1 1 ltIiA l Al )ll i cn] dit t l 11P IC 1 Ah - Ib p I l l I1 It 1 11
l I i ~ I l i III II t l ll 1Ii i ll Illk tl l iI~ ]~~il ll ~~~ l ltf i Ii l t l lt il p lI 1 Allth
~~ ~ ~ ~ I ~ i l ll l wcil ill cli~ ~ ~ ~ t ~ lillTiIdiII~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~-th ll Ili l lt )
1~ lid1 ill 1) Uwl l Ili ll t1 t 11Ihc1 k Ilh Il i t ~~
l ~ P1 l tl CL Plt i l l i l iccl 1 hI c i i i l l i i i l I f 1All ilt t )Iic I t h euro
25_Te liilth t-I i1 SpccifIc Fcrtility Rates for Five-Year Birth Coits of Womret anId fIOrFive-Year Plriods(Idlh
aIe Y lrs plitl to si]rvey
4 5 11 I0 14
(3 (i 53 78 88 -1 234 234 252
232~)~ _( 287 303 3I 34 205 248 285 31Y 55 188 220
4( -1-1 94 117 4 4() 31 B (miuiulaivc Irtility II iral c hiort (P) I-1 ) 27 3) 44 2)) 24 15o 101 161 2- 1 2) 30-1 304 i)3- 41)7 428 399 515 -11493 479 S-1 540 53shy
1-4 )5 3 ull l IC Icllilv oI nitheltic cohlt s (F)nu t
SI 7 3) 44 4 144 156 170
)62 300 322 3I 304 424 464 35 3) -442 51IS 574 l 4 481) 57o
415i 504
IIS 1)75 70
IhIL 25 shlows urhI lirIjS il tI last 15fertility declined CIIwilli thc Iderl alt haiipslvir aridcarlier ]Illger
tieelilicslie dec l1 cir arLo 5lir rlril I-1 lto ) yeais iJ iLIXI l 13 ccl Ille 34 35 nice i Ir 30 ild 3)
ii i 3 icti t l ri i IL l
I u l - u JluII lie Ai()ti)theI
iiHi vC - upt --I cii llli i 3 lnt-i 1)liQ)
t )tl I tl -Il ii l i ngtctdi_ ihi75 il u n tc
1 1 Ii w d thii l I iiut iivlinlit tnnIlk itw
I lli c li i l i t in litIin i rdi mill
i~~~ ~~ - llp isTc 7 1 ti lilllwll1wa wlt 71 10f cd
111t IfLri I h h i il icl lt i i h I i t t-l ii I l
11111 f li iChi I 11 - IM p lit d
IIf1l 1 i111 1 i i
Sli _ l I 1 llii gt I iiL Ii i) ii)
I1 -1i 1 11 1it I whd piiti I 1cIt t
I Lil Inn I I iil IiiIti rt n t iLLt iIiI II i i
i n ( - i n- nilii v e l2- I v- Itlt I Ii+ I) ii l I I 1c 1 l 4 i i h lc
I 1 l11d 11 i tIi ii i l
~1 I i iUc I II
15 1) 20 24 25 29 30 34
6) 67 4() 45 237 180 170 277 270
35 34 25 23 152 118 108 256 234 369
35 4 25 23 153 127 110 292 253 427
observcd in 1hefertilit schedules in a nIuniher ilWFS surveys Il h lritese cnrsc were iulIsextrclle isIlnl ()o Inirlaic (ciP IkiIii icrhleJuii D ulnilr Iordnli iCiiI
Republic i (iaVndi riltWa l1t-lpIIlACl hllt ifilpl digtpiiccllit i ill i 0v 1iiil C c i( n l-oIt
lllt lIrk l ici t ilWt I CiIt Ictliod
r1iiL uinwni l I i Iilir with lit
i rillidiIkiiinh iirtIl li i ill )iincll kiiili LtCS
den u o liiLI 1 i
Ill nli (drii di l 11c Iii iliL Inl Ilrnil ll 111
(W I ~l I Igt 11d c I lt I llt T (O wllt cd ll I l[ 1 il
rl cIIgtl I lii Iii i l i i gtliil ii tlilimi d i i iL iVe ii li 1 rnI [l irinris S iti i lnlIlrnI lii
li tl i i in I I I l t1i t voild w ji iid
I f t J Lt Il lh C il t II IrCi lit WII I)I l ( i 0 i K I i m
tiI liifjlS i i i Inn n l~l~p it ii i J l i litlttU ril~r
ithin Il ii P llI IIti w cnIlcIk lit l ill
Ii ttlli iInn II l irh I nli )L i Suln+ cii t i ii iiii in[ i1 tt 1(10i ihrli I tI 1iiti Ii hLi L I 111i1i1
I)ui jii rnc l 1tl - i llulI m iiicIl nLiIIIcic qi I ihlpil I 1 -1 tl c i i11111 IIIti eL hiess
uciri lrthnu i pr1Ii ILII iu h i)tili4i n tr i 1
I 1 I I- LIltI tI 1w II - III I Ii I I L
III~ I u~l l gti l W 1 1 A Vh t Ie hIIc I1 C 11 l I LII
17
the proportion of Unmated women and a small decline in
thle mcean age at entering the first uion as discussed i chapter 5 Finally the average length of breastfeeding has
probably declined over the past 20-30 years andl is now
months If te union status data obtained illtheseven JFS were accepted at face value marital age-specific
fertility rates based on exposure within reported unions
only could be calclad From these rates shown in table026-it n deed appears thatincreased participation -i
iuions was respohsible for a great part of the observed
fertility increase from the 1940s to the early 1960s Instead of about 100 per cent at age 15-19
11only
of fertility increases and about 40 per cent at age 20-24 (obtained when age-
specific rates are considered) within union rates yield
increases of only about 20 per cent at ages 15-19 and
20-24 The discussion in chapter 5 suggests however that
older women overstated their age at tilefirst union and to
the extent that this istrue the within union rates for older
cohorts at ages 15-24 should be lower and the real
fertility increase within unions would be higher than the
observed 20 per cent Secondly the recent decline in fertility which includes
declines among the older cohorts would further mimic the
expected patterns caused by displacement DisplacementS r cages would mean that older cohorts
would appear to have higher fertility at their older ages
compared to younger cohorts and fertility decline would
show the same pattern These two known real trends in afertility a rise in the period about 15-19 years ago and
recent de line could together produce mnucti the same pattern as displacement Itisdoubtful however that the whole of the observed
increase isreal The rise infertility at age 15--19 and
20-24 seen in the cohortperiod specific rates (96 per cent and 48 per cent respectively) is much larger than the overall increase illcurrent fertility (TFR) using survey data This suggests that some of the increase at young ages was
probably caused by either omission or displacement of
births by older women If displacement occurred this would imply that tile recent decline in fertility at older ages was overstated For example the fertility rateat age 35-39 for the 45--49 40-44 and 35-39 cohorts declined from 220 to 188 to 155 during the last 15 years (table 25) a total decline of 30 per cent If the rate for the 45-49 cohort is inflated by displaced births however the actual decline would be somewhat less than tile observed 30 per cent The situation at ages 30-34 is similar both the 40-44 and 45-49 cohorts may be partially inflated and the actual decline is probably less than the observed 28 per
Table 26 Cohort-Period Specific Fertilily Rates Ibr Periods
Age at Period befiore survey date end of period 0L4 5-9 10 14
15-19 281 321 318 _2 24 322 351 366 -5-29 275 329 359 310-3 228 283 311 3539 173 212 -40-44 109 130
49415- 30
38
cent for the past 15 years in the case of omissioi trends at
older ages would be unaffected One argument for suspecting displacement of births is
the change in tle shape of the fcrtility cirvc observed froie
younger cohorts to older COhOrts (See table 2) Fvn ht
a rise in fertility occurs itis unlikely that tle shape ol the
fertility curve would change The 45-49 and 40- 44
cohorts reached their peak fertility at central age 30 while
--0v1u 1ake Ia t con r a g1er colto d3 25 A peak age as high as 30 is highly unusual alld Coushy
samebined vith a different peak for other cohorts in tile the slope betweenpopulation is highly suspect Moreover
central ages 20 and 25 (ie the increase inthe fertility rate)
was much Steeper forthe two oldest cohorts about 50 per
cent compared to 28 per cent for the cohort aged 35-39 30-34 year old cohort The faster
rise between these ages results in a citching-up effect seen ever born in panel B
and 14 per cent for tile
in the cumulative number of children of t6ble 25 For example a striking case is seen where at
he 45-49 and 35-39 cohorls differed bycentral age 25 tmuch as 07 child but by central age 35 the differenceas
only 03 child File fact that a difference of 03 childwas still remained implies that some real fertility increase did
occur but it was clearly not as large as it appeared to be at the young ages The shape of fertility curves shownin
figure 4 for trte cohort-age rates notifor the cohort-period rates in table 25 shows the change in shape from older to
younger cohorts of woneni PIF ratios formed by relating actual achieved fertility
(P) to a synthetic cross-sectional estimate (F) are a good test for displacement or omission but only when fertility has remained more or less constant over time (Brass 1978
loldman and Clidambatan 1980) Where fertility is declining this ratio will be above 100 and if fertility rose it would be below 100 Thus although ina situation of conatant fertility deviations from 100 would indicate that omlion or overstatement was occurring iffertility itself is changimg misreporting vil be conceiled by real changes Table 27 presents tle results and shows that small increases in fertility occurred up to the period 10-14 years before the survey with decline after that especially in tilemost recent five-year period
64 DIFFERENTIALS IN FERTILITY
The pattern of fertility rates among subgroups of the population may also be used to test the quality of birth data This is especially trite if there is reason to expect subshy
spent Within Unions Only
15-19 20-24 25--29 30-34
323 304 316 289 356 320 312 342 323
314
Fertitiy rate (por 1000 women)
300-X x 5 1
20-24
25-29
250 -250---- -
35-39 40-44
- - 45-49
200shy
150
10- 14 15-I19 20-24 2 5-29 30-341 35-39 40-A 4 45149 At 1110
Iigumr 4 Nun ii (i forWiteiofMu Age [crtlitx Rams (jh I li ivc-Yectr (oIuuts
gimips toi difl~e ill qjiulily Id rlpittittC- dates aild CVCtit cur tnpihIc c visitiy womeitw aIged 45 41) are I muichtF0t CVa1111fIC it hCIICi CdiiI xcoliii o itihati volil Mallci andl Iime seleword c mup tlii vistilg wnmmi aged htad 11cult lejprlti VL W liii CIr ilii it paute of (1 2-I attn a sittidaf 1 atnclt cal he mtade abut tIkirlied ispi accliett ii I ll i l it i vcd Cmi the titlal mitlw[I itt tilL (ot-rIlC agecs e s ccfivity alfecls all Stillshy
tiljs nraiI V ttI tlj llk Cli d iItgt wilir 11dllL lliiIciiI a1mLti 1( tihtik l o lc~ohIoSSh til tiutv 1i1ini1ill
pLtvd p tdfl lo th ) It) l Idcljcc iiVIhIJ O2ff 2-- I 252) 34~S Od() ~gM
25 2C~il) Ald C IC1 I ltO l J1W li ii h e 3--f I 1 C )C1Iu 2 w d 01jl
30) 1ts e la0)2 2)) l w 11t t e e p ce O1o 056 l1k (1 1C M IhII A 1CI k oI I tl
35lolpfI) c 114 I0) II3II d 1) h l lilNoicl 1d il c Illm c~ p ils
co -moI m ft 1 o I Md 11 IA f o d s o lo l
dl- o h 1 1t IhilIhC V 1 W WI s R C H J~ t 11J I1h h h - 3 1 11 (l -j~ lov o n o l s III II)IY 11](ds l e()
[ Je ( 111 MOO WMIllc 1o hvl iol to SIrvc by Alva o I RsideceIio~ III-~Table 28 lciodeu~v 1-0u1 tt
It oldH (dI YemIs pliIol Ito $sIVeV ) 01VC -c-----shyr11c it ( tit
1 4 5 10- I- 5 I 220 24 25 2o 30- 34Ill11
I l~ l le
85 40 33 38I I0 (42 53 67 05 1402 24 1 20-1 210 210 205 153
2 2 20)) 21 248 292 261 212 3-1 104204 70 231 241 239
- II ~12 124 187 4 -1-1I 27) 63 82
-4 -P) 1371 25
I l fI l Ic1 1 l 1) 55 89 Q2 75 84 58 50
- 1 263 268 298 262 206 192
25 2u21 257 331 312 286 283
31 I1 243 261 312 291
31217)- 175 226 243 40 -14 [211) 112 141
I-S 11175 76
Iper I 10 Wmien f)or ive-Year Periods prior to Survey by Lev of -ducatiotTable 29 ()h1t-Peritd I-cililk ates c Ill cd111
al ed Yil pprior l pciiod (No of
9 10 14 15-19 20 24 25- 29 30 +c0 4 5
AI co iplete pli lny ed tcatoi n I IloI)7I 13o 118 124 110 84 60 51
I _ I313 284 266 215 199) 3 2 224 310 281 271
t22131 250 296 290 l IKo 191 241
h i 1 7 -S 100 130 1 ) 117-4I 3 1
It I IlmpRci Hollir v ducation I W 123 88 101 61 58 38 48I)) - H 3 51 275 233 171 164
5 2 ) 300 323 291 238 h H1I ( 217 270 294 256
k ( )1 145 21o 20S -i) 1l 2 102 103
4 1)) 1 3t
S- mlId hi2l-1l cducai llH I
29 01I C o6 38 213 6 34 21 H) lj-) 114 114 145 86 42
1 179 178 213 217 194
3-t 121 153 2116 200 ) I ) 63 14
1 2-1
4S 11 77 6
40
_________________
Fable 30) ( Iiin -Period Ferhilify Rarcs ( ciI000)Women) 0r Five-Year Pci iois prio Ill Siiic for (or1iecro thJiioii Statuts
11ciud All 1 C s primo to t
pciiotl INA i -________
O~ci) A) 1(0141 I5 10 20 24 L52)304
I ()8 50 58 06ii 24 1 187 2150 238 20) 170
2 itn27 274 321 318 302 (I 01) )45 315 293
51 )213 238 I~-1O 00) 116
K)50 -15i 127 110 98 87 51 45 430 3i 2180 -277 262 173 155
i )25 0~ 342 309 277 190 0I )2414 285 287 241
)104-~ ~ 19 183 --) Ii)~i ) 135
11 1ot 131 60 104 58 64 49 91 212418 222 240 170 190
V) 00267 300 206 267 ) II 288 230 3141
-Ii i8) 3 -33 I 3
11 311 A ii)fi int the ii I iiiIIcc iiirialivec lllt Lriiips mfay have spentf periodis if) oti)Cr types of uioniif thanl iA r) IWn a jcl(i 16 presuntif is likly fint wecii~l w o ii6~ siiid or thli one il are oilsciviiiia a basic
I iICJcic I-cic hLiiI ll 1dli~crclice Ii i - Iilld - WHvc 4P) ) ml i ci tiiif
11c coil 1 HC fil IM tiiiai illfihciiiit (ihwf l w oiil cii ctiy III)[ l Cle ~~CCIIiL ificcise~wa i 41n 4) 1i i 3 111 i
it Ii i iiw~ Sri e 5 )e)C f I wpuiiifrL i ( fp flt i thurII li itii hiil 11 Iii iii iC i i~e 8ill
111)st~ill OwcfIrr l t mli criI ic IiliJSlhuit m illi 1 lit Im il Hol LlwiIl Ic
I IIIi ~gtirr~i~ L~r fLl B ti c) t iJ ht svLm iliist i~
Ill 4P
Table 31 N m ll I ill htilIr If li ti tIeI 3I1 WomieiicutiiinIlIy Agcd45 P) 40 4435 39)a1130 3-1M 34h ( lloisoi ro tihe I till idu foptkiitoliot StlhC iotpmi
StI troIt (IltlcI tee u[olo Maximtal AboIltjeirriti l se in c lcse
( ) (ChildICn )
Flial p jltlatt ti 3(6 31 428 407 16 06
tithmi 3 14 344 387 347 23 07
Ruil 408 431 459 474 16 07
lItutMIpltc pt itttury 406 426 455 472 lo 07
(Iotplete l imn y 353 39 7 442 427 25 09
221 29 273 210(I 24 05
(tlint i lit)l SNIiS
NIlt licd 12 447 435 400 8 04 (it tillliw 310 304 472 481 52 17 Visit ie 440 446h2 (15 lI( T ttilh [c dhall 5fl illlllcll
Fable 32 PetI( eit Ittreaise ill (ohott-leviOd Rales dirine the Petiod 30 34 Ycars before the Survey to tie Period 15 11) uet helotc fileI lk rve alt (Ceiiinl Vus 15 1 2 titI 3(1 Io the tl l Popu itlioitl ind ItmSubgroups
Stth pllI Pet cit ilt se ti ll ll ll i esp
5 20 25 3(O
I ll plo~tipllit t-l 4 20 6
Rcwdcl
I[I 124 03 Rural 84 55 1(0 7
IJhlwlioll
IPlittal - 4 yis 143 43 14 2 Ptiilirv -1- irs 110 68 36 I5 Seehtl~ilytt tilher t 112
(inc llio Slais
NlI iiLed 27 42 6 8 (ttfitt mt Lw 158 7N 63 1(9
Visil ieL 112 31 46 3
IO N-1cl lllttcl itidl dle it tia ll tum er ot ci scs tihewlore per Cttt tllt nt CtiaLlldtlcd SY(pi 11S I l 5 7f)
inlcrear v~is illt l~h iti tlhe i ips who Zile Alleiliilively lowcr slaliis i upl Such Zis tile coUlilitonlidic Ift
e etCICk It hc ht l i p l liol t ile itMill the be tl lI 11il ise tal sititc l lilttet Iit1i tlti ill iCAt
tie l (f iOW itiuip C fceti ittiVe lttcatil(0 ) di(lie liCke il e ree F1skCWilit 111ti the lUirtied lot itIIj)leC le
l ility etive till itc wvih e lt lalit]s thotit utlulil of Ii Iit i liuliet ftet11dC(i)t tiil ] eti hilivlo ltIit
reop lli i l tiid IL i icl pi lll ci uilc I I m i t lhc t etli it i dicId t _i I ct l siu lil p ile w li[ x3pikil ai I l hiillk (gtltc_ ll cilil1cc llilliolll ]hp q- )l_+l t] It) 1w ylI Il I iwli tk Ili ( ll 111 t 1C dih[dZR CliIW Il
( 1 1 1I l li C M111 lit- mw Ilit c Miiiigtl iiML 3 l C1] t_ 11li lt 1 1 1 I l ~ 11 Il l tle h l M w1 i Ilt lv lCI n~] c c II~ill i ll 1 lcI~ gt
o fi flit Ic iii iwltiy illi w ll (Ji i11 1 li~iAm fltie l 1 l ltjllic V l tiidh c M1lc- 1 4 1 1- II ll Iilxcl
Ill ll1- I i lilfl l wceIiCi l~ p dI ih l l l ll 1)0 1i ll lt q i ii 1 vI l ltLd~ li1 li h illtl ~iW ticil
til~ 1 1111i 111i t(11 _l f iu il tl ll111 lltlIIC- V 1 il c iicl ll mhc i m ll 1 ljtv o kii llt 1
ICC~~~~~~~ll~[~fil -d~u t lpil uul~ lfolh Jt C l)jd dec Imiil Iilicill
tettct ti lll tl l h ittto t
Wlitt il ttietpiuo th ii e ii icli l iil t ls vl dLII~1lltiic11 llP H 1111 I l l p c i CtlihlI lh Wi 0 l
i~ h I ( q It1 I I I I lI I 1 I i I i IR I I I )Il Iu t l l _ l l b i l l II li i I Icent ii i 1 1
W tl lc~l il llilin s Ill h ilth Ilisif rlt t i 1 Ilfihoi lh flit- speed ol havingp
act4 I I i ll l I llI l o ill C i tlI i ll ill liSI h i l i I ll u P J lie ()ll xCili
42
the first birth may change over time according to age of birth would also account for some of the difference The theile Woman it is Unlikely thit the proportion eventually proportion who became mothers was 90 per cent For becoming mothers would change in a given populationhc 45-49 year olds 92 per cent for 40-44 year olds and 94 one exception to this generalization is found in cases such per cent for 35-39 year olds showing that a real increase as that of Jamaica where fecundity itself probably had of fecundity did occUr with thc percentage of childless changed over tlme womcn decreasing from 1i0 o 6 per cent This supports the
In the (liscussioll so far it has been shown that there results of analysing frtility differentials among sioshywere increases in fertility in the period beginning from economic subgroups that some real fertility increase about 20-24 years ago upi to about 10-14 years ago occurred but that displacemcnt or omission of early births
(ie--b eteen-95-1-55-and - 961--65)- n-addition fertility -shy also occurred amng olderage-groups -- 7---7-- --------shyhas declined recently beginning from 5--9 years ago for Panel C of table 33 shows age-specilic fertility rates for some age cohorts The PF ratios shown in table 27 reflect all births of order four or higher There appears to be some these trends increase in high-order births up to tle period 10-14 years
The ratios of less than 100 found at periods of more before the Survey for younger women Although this rise than 10 years before the survey imply some omission or could be partly due to improvements in fecundity in the displacement of births but they are at least partly due to broad sense (ie not only a decline in primary sterility but the real rise in fertility declines in morbidity and the resulting benefits for fertility)
Panel A of alle 33 shows that the percentage who were and increased exposure to concep)tion suchI a rise is also mothers by age 15-19 and 20-24 increased substantially consistent with displacement andor omission of births up to tile period 10-14 years before the survey but there Secondly the recent trend in these rates from 10- 14 yearsis much less change at older ages The cumulative pro- before the survey supports tlie substantial decline in portions who become mothers towards the end of child- fertility described earlierbearing did not change as drastically however This I ttern is consistent with displacement andor omission of first births On the other hand the declijne in the mean age at 66 TESTS FOR OMISSION OF LIVE BIRTHS entering the first union would explain some of this
diminishing Ufference and improvements in health which The tests carried out ulp to this point were mainly directed increased the likelhood of the first conception being a live- towards finding out whether displacement of births
Table 33 Coliort-Pcriod Fertilitv Rates for First Births and Births of Order Four or Iligher (per 1000 Women) and Cumulative Proportions of Cohorts becoming Mothers for Five-Year Periods prior to Survey
Age at Years prior to survey end of 0-4 549 10-14 15- 20- 24 25-29 30-34 period
A First birth rates 15-19 37 58 60 52 3750 37 20-24 87 79 97 86 82 79 25-29 34 28 39 43 40 30-34 9 9 19 16 35-39 3 2 7 40 -44 1 I
45 -49 0
BCum ulat ive proportions becoming mothers at end of period 15-19 19 29 30 26 25 19 19 20-24 73 70 75 68 60 58 25--29 87 89 88 81 78 30-34 93 92 91 86 35-39 91 92 90 40 -44 9 90 45-9 90
C BMith rates for order - 4 20-24 25 34 28 1334 12 25- 29 106 141I 139 Il1 96
-30-34 152 194 196 179 35-39 140 169 187 40-44 88 1 11 -5 -49 29 1
Sout c J I S 19 75 -7 6
43
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ii I ittIAII I ll II t l i Ii 1 11 Ai lTilItiI1 A11 lim gtliow I J Id IIIthihhT l BAITI-
tA t+H t i I A+AiItlIIIAAI II AAA shytlm A
1 1 111 1 A25)l hI i lt I 1AAI1It l II 1111) 11A(1 11 ) Il IAhIl 1 II I2-jA13I IAt()1 cIIlit
itINI AtlIII I II I( i I A()tAAI AA I I ) I II AAIAI i I I I AIt
I w(A11 7-) 111 I I 2h 1N II I I 1 IA I I 171 A t
I I A1AA 1AA1 1 1 1A I II IA111 mI II L II It 1 C I I A A I
t A~Ah l l I+i I ~A s A fAIiAhl [[ I c))II~ cIA lI A I lI It)Iw 1I l 1 I I- A I 1 A l~ l
Acent A~~ AI Al+t~k AII AI I -lt111 11 AA liAlt+Ilk1 S II I1rl Ai I A ~l
III Al i IV II A 11 1I5t I ] hl I lJ l I ) IIull lI iV AAIIi AI+ ti1A II lA l hiclc
l~~~l~ t l++ i m A~dAtIII+ t l IIItIIHIm t h J h + I (hA I IIu I I H m gt x
ii11 iV iT1 I i I shyv i~i - I I I AAI II I t I i I ti III d
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l ll I (1 g I)r-18i(-u()0l) 11+ lI t 10 4 4 IIs I-))S )) 7 21I
4 I Dll tiilItt I D S- Ii i 1 1 INp IP 4 lIS li A 7 IP 1A
1q 11) 1 0 ()()5~l 1 VS]0 1 11 1 1D H (
5~ ~~ ~ ~ I ~(t19lidiI~~5 I+ Q+ I WH ISI~ ~ l+ i~on ~ IIa (35 I
1 ( 11 1(00+ 1)-0 +_ ) 2 I() ( )gt3 I
I11 11 107 11 I 5 I(M 117 Ilt IA) 1 W 2 1-8 Ilk I1A( M( IM N (1 Itg 0007 1 (5q 3(I1 ) ) (5)-5 ) (340 t(00h)29) 151
i(i hIl rl til1 1C11 1m 11 11 11] 1 k2lc i l kf l A-11 h 111iltl Alhi 1 I IIt ( I (111 (1 15 )1) I+1 I ( 5 )(jI i I m 7 (I-( I
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ltJ]u li llti l l- 1idl e I~U Iil tmet filz ii -
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tih Ic11 ll i1 1 I 1I lfltl il )IIA lltkv declloIII
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8 Summary
Date reporting in both the houscllold and tile individual surveys were in general quite good Sonic errors wcre noted at the houselhold level the omission of infants heaping among adults at the digits 0 alW 5 the transference of som women aged 49 into age 50 and the possibility of dating error between age groups 30-34 and 35-39 In the individual survey the data are quite reasonable the only error being that betwcen the 30-34 and 35-39 age groups which persists from the household to the individual survey Rsespondnts repoited Ilij date of irth and the dates of childrens births and deaths with a high degree of completeness supplying both month and year Reporlingof the (late of the first union was not as complete however almost half of the total sample gave their age rather than the (late of this event and this proportion was higher for
older women A (direct reading uf thle I PS nuptiality data shows that
a substanlial decline of about 25 years occurred in tle average age at first union Detailed analysis suggests that older women overstated their ages at first union however and this would reduce the size of the real decline from oldtl to yuungei cohorts by about one year Evidence of over-slaiemnenl cannot account for the full observed decline however and by implication it appears that a real decline of about 15 years in the average age at first union occurred Two further important findings are that the surveyobtained more complete information on participation in
visiting unions than did the census and secondly that dating of unions after the first was also somewhat
inaccurate ill the JFS This survey is Iparticularly useful because it provides age
speciric fertility data from the period after 1964 whichthotigh usually available from vital statistics have not so far ieeii published for the period after 1963 Knowledge of fertility trends for the period from the early 1960s onwards is imli)rlant hecause a strong fami ily p iing prograina ic was instillted during this period (Sinclair i974b) Tl results of the JFS showing substantial decline in fertility beginning from the mid-1960s contradicts the conclusions drawn froi previously existing dlata (vital statistics of tlie early 1960s and 1970 census) that almost no change had occurred from 1960 to 1970 (Sinclair 19741) The
iimaterii y Iistories provideevidence of msubstantial decine in fertility during the 10 yenr lieod becf iethe sumvey TIi decline of about 15 ChIldren in the total fertility rate would have resilted f1om fertility change withinl Unionssince the age at -rst union actually declined Fertility decline was concent td aimong women aged 30 or more
The I1S showed a substantially higher level of fertilitythan the vtial statistics from the I950S uipi to tle eirly1960s the latest date for which agc specific i tilityy da t roml vital statistics are availible The impllcation here is
that some under-registration in vital statistics probablyexisted during this period Census measures of cumulativc fertility are also generally lower than JFS measures for census years again suggesting that the JFS achieved more completc coverage of children ever born
Therc is some evidence that displacement and to a lesser degrcc omission of births occurred among oldcr age groupsTile fertility schedules show that there was a rise in fertility among younger women starting about 30 years before ihe survy and continuing up to about 15 years before the survey while ferlilily declined during the past 10 years Although there is evidence supporting the occurrence of some increase in fertility from both external sources and from the JIS data itself it seems very likely that only part of the observed increase in fertility is real At least half is probably due to the combined effects of displacement towards the later part of thle reproductive period and of omission of birthsinfant deaths by older women during tile early part of their reproductive life To the extent that displacement occurred towards the middle and later part of older womens lives this would coincide with the 1960-75 periol and it would mean that their fertility rates dluring(his period are too high While the size of the recent decline may be almost the same even after allowing for the displacement which is spread throughout the 15 year peiiod the amount of under-registration in the 1960s would probably be less since tlie JFS would have slightlyover-estiniated the level of fertility during the early 1960s
It is interesting to note that tile higher educated groups and urban women experience somewhat larger fertility rises among older cohorts at their youinger ages and periaps of displacenient at older ages than the lower educated andrural groups The currently married woenc had a much smaller increase and thereflre less displacement however while the currentlycommon law group had an exceptionally large appa reli rise in ferti lity and presumably disp acement was also substantially greaiter for this group
Tests of ssion of births suggCst that some omissioii of infant dealhs may have occurred at periods earlier than 15 years before tle survey Also there is soie error in the f at death data il the period 5--9 years before the sn yThe 11S showed an overall trend of declining infant and child momtity during th past 30 years which is coiiifirmdd by the Irend described in the vital statistics Th e level of the in ft mortality rate observedl in the lS is consistently higher than the level registered in the vital statistics lhov ever This suggests that som underregisratioln of infant dtiIs xlisstedlsince the periid 30 years before the survey anmd C0itniming tipl to tile preseItI
In general the S data on age repoitingiiptility Frtility a i f mortality appear to rsoIly1ndfnt lie reli ible In particular the unioii statis data and fertility
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References
Si1 vi-Y I07S It KN c 1( Rcp~u ]m 20
IHIki I ( 1)( 1t 1 tlimil Stiwu riill JalmfIi NewU Ymtnk I Ic (1Ictitiw
till~utPSIcllc
I )I~ie~e~pIIinut I I A It1
ill Il 1K c I tO A wl of r p II
111 hgt15h il h lIlrc i Pi wl
11-H)il 111CIh Irdi II 1Illcl1111
)Il w ncii) UInitn
I~mmt Jc (I177a) Pinhlciis inl Using IfiiIti Ilistoty A~nalysisIll iiait TICnIls Ill [Crilitvl IPopulation Nidis 31 (2)
Snickiir ItitilitS II INNs RultisiI00u
11i1 S1111Ine tll (Il Ill 012 e lt IniliiV iSIV
nlnll) 5l1 6iiiro ol M c Si l) ( I etu a c l n1
ai l illie k nr P r i Ii 1J m ia
SI U ( lit ~ fd L 1