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Review of US Human Space Flight Plans Committee

Evaluation Measures and Criteriafor Humans Spaceflight Options

12 August 2009

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Defining the Basis for Evaluation

• Major Drivers for defining the evaluation criteria• HSF Commission 2009 Charter and Statement of Task– Expedite a new U.S. capability to support utilization of the International Space

Station– Support missions to the Moon and other destinations beyond low Earth orbit – Stimulate commercial space flight capability– Fit within the current budget profile for NASA exploration activities

• Other Metrics defined by Panel Members

• Reviewed metrics and figures of merit used in previous studies• Space Act of 1958• 1991 Synthesis Group• 2004 Vision for Space Exploration

• Significant agreement on metrics and criteria• Not all criteria will be weighted equally

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Sustainability

Science Knowledge

Economic Expansion

Technology Innovation

Life Cycle Cost

PublicEngagement Exploration Preparation

Schedule and Programmatic Risk

Expanding Human Civilization

Workforce Impact

Safety

Global Partnership

Benefit to StakeholdersRISKS

BUDGET REALITIES

Evaluation Challenges

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Exploration Preparation

Promotes and enables exploration beyond LEO

-2Exploration is limited to LEO; No significant activity beyond ISS & SSP

-1Supports ISS with the development of capability for beyond LEO

0 Limited beyond LEO exploration

1Provides exploration beyond LEO with ability to grow and evolve

2Develops Operational Robustness to explore destinations beyond LEO

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Science Knowledge

Addresses critical research areas consistent with Decadal survey priorities

-2 No plan for science research

-1Science research opportunity but is inconsistent with the priorities of the science community

0Limited Opportunity for science research but no implementation plan

1Addresses some priorities of the scientific community (astrophysics, planetary and lunar science, solar science and earth science)

2Significantly addresses many critical priorities of the scientific community

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Technology Innovation

Enables technology maturation, new modes of exploration and national leadership in innovation

-2 Uses current or very near term technologies

-1Uses near term technology with modest investment in maturation and transfer

0 Technology maturation required to support exploration

1 Provides opportunity for technology innovation

2 Provides significant enabling technology innovation

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Expanding Human Civilization

Leads to a presence off planet and enables sustained human presence and/or bases

-2 Does not enable human presence

-1 Enables a visit beyond LEO

0Leads to a presence off planet and supports research for crew effects (i.e. radiation, zero or low-g)

1Addresses crew – oriented effects to enable sustained human presence off planet

2Enables sustaining human presence off planet utilizing In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) or enhances protection of the Earth

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Economic Expansion

Growing, profitable Industrial Base; Commercial Engagement and US development and production capabilities increase

-2Diminishes technical capability industrial base. No opportunity for commercial participation

-1Weakens industrial base. Limited opportunity for commercial goods and services

0 Sustains US industrial base with some new opportunities

1 Stimulates investment in new and existing capabilities

2 Commercial systems form integral part of the architecture

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Global Partnership

Leverages and expands international partnerships (IP)

-2 Discourages further International Partnership Involvement

-1 Disrupts existing International Partnership

0 Sustains existing International Partnership

1Leverages and strengthens International Partnerships (including critical path)

2 Expands International Partnerships to potential new partners

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Public Engagement

Motivate and Inspire current and future generations; Societal benefits

-2 Fails to capture /stimulate public interest at all

-1Gains public interest, but, only focuses on LEO Exploration goals

0 Gains public interest and focuses on Beyond LEO Exploration

1Significant public interest; Motivates STEM increase and includes broad program that directly benefits society

2Galvanizes broad public interest in science and technology.

Engages the public in exploration

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Safety and Mission Success

Probability of Loss of Crew (LOC) or Loss of Mission (LOM)

-2 Significantly Increased risk of LOC or loss of mission

-1 Increased risk of LOC

0 LOC risk comparable to Shuttle (1/81)

1Enhanced crew safety consistent with new human rating requirements

2Significantly enhanced crew safety (10X) and high launch vehicle reliability

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Life Cycle Cost

Affordability through 2020; balanced approach given other national needs

-2 Greatly exceeds the President’s budget

-1 Exceeds the President’s budget

0 Meets the President’s budget

1 Under the President’s budget

2 Significantly under the President’s budget

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Schedule and Programmatic Risk

Likelihood of delivering robust exploration capability on schedule

-2 Provides no exploration beyond LEO before 2030’s

-1 Provides sosme exploration beyond LEO early 2020’s

0Delivers capability on a schedule consistent with the POR, Human Lunar Return in 2020

1 Delivers robust capability with schedule margin (low risk)

2 Delivers robust capability with significant schedule margin

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Programmatic Sustainability

Likelihood of keeping the program sold, i.e., by meeting near term, and continuing, visible milestones

-2 Significant advocacy needed for out year funding

-1 Out year funding profile requires advocacy

0 Sufficient public and congressional support

1Plus broad support from industry and external agencies, i.e., DoD

2 Plus broad support from International Partners

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Critical Skills Workforce Impact

Impact on nations’ critical skills

-2 Significant loss of critical skills and experience

-1 Some loss of critical skills and experience

0 Maintains selected critical skills and expertise

1Attracts and retains highly capable technical workforce and critical expertise

2Enables strategic realignment of the workforce to ensure availability of critical skills

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Workforce Impact (NASA and Industry)

Near term total workforce impact

-2 > 10% Decrease

-1 < 10 % Decrease

0 Maintains critical skills and expertise

1 < 10% Increase

2 > 10% Increase

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Evaluation Measures Summary

Evaluation Measure Criteria

Exploration Preparation Robust Growth Beyond LEO

Science Knowledge Aligned with Scientific Community

Technology Innovation Enable New Modes of Exploration

Expanding Human Civilization Sustained Human Presence

Economic Expansion Growing Profitable Industrial Base

Global Partnership Leverage & Expand Intl Partnerships

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Evaluation Measures Summary (cont)

Evaluation Measure Criteria

Public Engagement Motivate and Inspire; Societal Benefit

Schedule & Programmatic Risk Operational Flexibility and Robustness

Safety and Mission Success Crew Safety and Mission Success

Programmatic Sustainability Credibility, Stability, Keeping the support

Life Cycle Cost Target – President’s Budget

Workforce Impacts Strategic alignment; critical skills

Panel to assess proposed options against each measure

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Integrated Options Evaluation (Presented by ED)