Evaluating the availability and consistency of annual migration flow data amongst ASEAN countries, 2000-2015

James Raymer, Qing Guan and Jasmine Trang Ha New Zealand Population Conference, Wellington, 20-21 June 2019

Objectives of this paper •  Identify the coverage, quality and consistency of

available international migration flow data from, to, and within the ASEAN region

•  Explore possible data estimation strategies to generate annual migration flow data for the region

•  Assess the plausibility of the estimated flows

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ASEAN region: Persons changing their country of residence by origin, destination and time period (i.e., 11 x 11 x 16)

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Significance of migration to and from ASEAN countries

Origin Destination

ASEAN Other AP Rest of world Total2000 ASEAN 2,729,908 5,061,831 2,006,579 9,798,318

Other AP 624,349 18,634,825 10,633,380 29,892,554

Rest of world 1,163,065 35,565,138 90,648,147 127,376,350

Total 4,517,322 59,261,794 103,288,106 167,067,2222017 ASEAN 7,321,653 7,796,935 6,418,794 21,537,382

Other AP 1,912,123 19,657,302 27,751,715 49,321,140

Rest of world 1,518,405 48,296,037 136,529,695 186,344,137

Total 10,752,181 75,750,274 170,700,204 257,202,659Source: World Bank 2000, 2017

Migrant population stocks

•  Most abundant migration data available •  Consistently collected by population censuses •  Captures the net cumulative effect of immigration and

emigration over time •  Does not reveal when migrants arrived / departed or the

size of their flows

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Migration flows

•  Number of people moving within a specified period of time

•  Change in the country of usual residence •  Less abundant and inconsistently measured •  Required for assessing contribution to demographic

change and understanding / developing policies

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Main sources of migration flow data

•  International Labour Migration Statistics (ILMS)

•  Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

•  United Nations – Population Division; High Commissioner for Refugees; Education, Scientific and Cultural Organization

•  National statistics offices

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Available migration inflow data in ASEAN countries

Labour Asylum Student Permanent Nationals Total Brunei BRN 2014-16 2011-16

Indonesia IDN 2009-14C 2000-16 2010-15R Cambodia KHM 2008B 2000-16 2008B

Laos LAO 2012 2011-16 Myanmar MMR 2014-16 2011 Malaysia MYS 2007-14C 2000-16 2011-16 2007-14C

Philippines PHL 1980-2014C 2000-16 Singapore SGP 2001-16 Thailand THA 2006-15C 2000-16 2011-15 2007-15R Viet Nam VNM 2005-15C 2014-16 2011-16

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Available migration outflow data in ASEAN countries

Labour Asylum Student Permanent Foreigners Total BRN 2011-17 IDN 1996-2015R 2011-17

KHM 1998-2015R 2011-17 LAO 2004-15R 2011-17 MMR 2000-15R 2011-17 MYS 2011-17 PHL 1980-2014R 2011-17 1981-2015R SGP 2011-17 THA 1997-2015R 2011-17 VNM 1999-2015R 2011-17

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Available migration flow data in ASEAN countries, 2011 Destination

Origin BRN IDN KHM LAO MMR MYS PHL SGP THA VNM ROW Total BRN O … … … … … … … … … … … BRN D … … … … … … … … … 158C … IDN O … … … … … … … … … … … IDN D … … … … … … … … … 25,921C …

KHM O … … … … … … … … … … … KHM D … … … … … … … … … 9,565C … LAO O … … … … … … … … … … … LAO D … … … … … … … … … 1,570C … MMR O … … … … … … … … … … … MMR D … … … … … … … … … 16,518B … MYS O … … … … … … … … … … … MYS D … … … … … … … … … 15,425C … PHL O 15,406R 4,793R 1,768R 992R 334R 16,798R 146,613R 6,445R 4,349R 1,204,639R 1,402,137R PHL D … … … … … … … … … 104,319C … SGP O … … … … … … … … … … … SGP D … … … … … … … … … 8,124C … THA O … … … … … … … … … … … THA D … … … … … … … … … 43,642C … VNM O … … … … … … … … … … … VNM D … … … … … … … … … 60,678C … ROW O 218C 17,356C 2,181C 952C 2,013C 17,947R 31,937C 3,380C 24,956C 29,355C 687,140R ROW D … … … … … … … … … … … Total … 494,266R … … … 93,700C … … 35,000R … 1,062,040C

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Available labour migrant flow in ASEAN countries, 2011 Destination

Origin BRN IDN KHM LAO MMR MYS PHL SGP THA VNM ROW Total BRN O … … … … … … … … … … … BRN D 6C … … … … … … … … … … IDN O 10,804R 33R 122R 36R 134,266R 187R 47,786R 1,113R 337R 392,118R 586,802R IDN D … … … … … 360C … … … … …

KHM O … … … … 4,351R … … 16,837R … 5031R 26,219R KHM D … 8C … … … 4C … … … … … LAO O … … … … … … … … … … 33,588R LAO D … … … … … 3C … … … … … MMR O … … … … 7,222R … 569R 8,294R … 2,195R 18,280R MMR D … 180C … … … 1C … … … … … MYS O … … … … … … … … … … … MYS D … 4,938C … … … 458C … … … … … PHL O 15,406R 4,793R 1,768R 992R 334R 16,797R 146,613R 6,445R 4,349R 1,121,230R 1,318,727R PHL D … 3,816C … … … … … … … … … SGP O … … … … … … … … … … … SGP D … 2,116C … … … … 393C … … … … THA O 3,354R 1,289R 65R 842R 140R 4,321R 135R 11,461R 795R 125,221R 147,623R THA D … 3,863C … … … … 293C … … … … VNM O 82R … 2,820R 4,277R … 9,977R … 61R … 71,024R 88,298R VNM D … 116C … … … … 119C … … … … ROW O … … … … … 2,459R … 1,078R … … 262,961R ROW D … 61,700C … … … … 14,569C … … … … Total … 77,307C … … … 76,100C 17,142C … 91,220C 56,929C …

Multiplicative Component Model

Step 1. Estimated the margins (Totals) Step 2. Estimate the interactions

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A B C Total A B CA + A 0 1 1B B 1 0 1C C 1 1 0

Total

A B C TotalA 0 nij ni j ni+B nij 0 nij ni+C nij ni j 0 ni+

Total n+j n+j n+j n++

Step 1. Estimate the margins A B C Total A B C

A + A 0 1 1B B 1 0 1C C 1 1 0

Total

•  OLS regressions for Emigration (ni+) and Immigration (n+j) •  Input data:

•  30 European countries (2002-2008) •  4 Asia-Pacific countries (1980-2015) •  N= 294 country-years

•  Three sets of estimates: Mean, Upper and Lower 95% confidence interval

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Results from OLS regressions

Step 2. Interaction offsets

Offset matrices 1  Quasi-independence

2  Contiguity 3  Common Language 4  Common Colony

5  5-year Flow-from-stock data (Abel forthcoming) 6  Remittance (World Bank data) 7  Trade flow (UN Comtrade data)

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A B CA 0 1 1B 1 0 1C 1 1 0

A B CA 0 2 0.5B 0.5 0 2C 0.5 0.5 0

A B CA 0 15 200B 40 0 25C 60 81 0

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Results: Migration flows in ASEAN countries, 2015

Origin Destination

BRN IDN KHM LAO MMR MYS PHL SGP THA VNM ROW Total OutBRN 919 22 12 67 287 408 229 667 186 5,744 8,541

IDN 8,365 7,758 6,474 42,765 115,843 98,494 49,763 117,866 71,259 1,483,904 2,002,491

KHM 434 12,947 230 1,192 5,638 3,646 6,732 30,736 14,898 83,767 160,220LAO 674 17,077 644 1,476 2,177 2,397 5,119 19,258 17,831 50,302 116,955MMR 1,321 85,516 1,252 2,051 18,486 11,980 9,670 77,192 21,858 302,942 532,268MYS 1,259 66,735 1,192 421 3,917 11,604 26,548 16,696 9,991 144,633 282,996PHL 1,984 80,598 2,042 1,147 6,447 22,651 20,700 26,960 17,766 576,301 756,596SGP 108 5,665 323 59 654 6,819 1,986 3,495 1,961 23,340 44,410

THA 1,315 53,700 10,417 7,747 18,592 13,368 9,419 9,427 10,569 189,385 323,939

VNM 1,220 50,883 1,620 1,666 5,187 11,642 8,711 10,465 10,805 207,102 309,301ROW 5,559 406,706 7,980 4,280 42,484 82,005 114,818 36,235 122,801 84,676 907,544

Total In 22,239 780,746 33,250 24,087 122,781 278,916 263,463 174,888 426,476 250,995 3,067,420 5,445,261

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Results: Migration flows between Indonesia and the Philippines, 2000-2015

Assessment of estimates

•  Comparison with reported data •  Calculation of emigration and immigration rates •  Demographic balancing equation •  Direction of bilateral flows

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Summary

•  Explored the availability of migration flow data amongst ASEAN countries for the period 2000 to 2015

•  Found data situation to be extremely poor, both in terms of availability and documentation

•  Designed a strategy to estimate the migration flows in the absence of any migration data

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Usefulness of a migration estimation system

•  Single resource for policy making and research •  Reference for data validation •  Platform for sharing information, harmonising definitions

and removing inconsistencies •  A data source for countries with inadequate collection

systems

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Acknowledgements

•  This research is funded by the Australian Research Council as part of the ‘overcoming the problems of inconsistent migration data in the Asia Pacific’ Discovery Projects (DP170102468)

•  Collaborative work with Guy Abel, Juliet Pietsch, Hanlin Shang and Arkadiusz Wiśniowski

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