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European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q1/2013) 1
EUROPEAN TOURISM in 2013: TRENDS & PROSPECTS
Quarterly Report (Q3/2013)
A quarterly insights report produced for the Market Intelligence Group
of the European Travel Commission (ETC)
by Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
Brussels, November 2013
ETC Market Intelligence Report
Copyright © 2013 European Travel Commission
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
All rights reserved. The contents of this report may be quoted, provided the source
is given accurately and clearly. Distribution or reproduction in full is permitted for
own or internal use only. While we encourage distribution via publicly accessible
websites, this should be done via a link to ETC's corporate website,
www.etc-corporate.org, referring visitors to the Market Intelligence Section.
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do
not imply the expression of any opinions whatsoever on the part of the Executive
Unit of the European Travel Commission.
Data sources: This report includes data from the TourMIS database /
http://www.tourmis.info, STR Global, IATA, AEA and UNWTO.
Economic analysis and forecasts are provided by Tourism Economics and
are for interpretation by users according to their needs.
Published and printed by the European Travel Commission
Rue du Marché aux Herbes, 61, 1000 Brussels, Belgium
Website: www.etc-corporate.org
Email: [email protected]
ISSN No: 2034-9297
This report was compiled and edited by:
Tourism Economics (an Oxford Economics Company)
on behalf of the ETC Market Intelligence Group
Cover: Colosseum in Rome, Italy
Photo © Shutterstock / S. Borisov
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 1
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Foreword
Strong international demand supports European tourism
Preliminary results for the first three quarters of 2013 point to a
strong performance of tourism in Europe. UNWTO1 estimates
point to a 5% year-to-date growth, which is well above
Europe’s long-term trend and close to growth in world’s fastest
growing regions.
Most of the 32 destinations reporting foreign visits through
May-August post positive growth. A strong performance is
reported by Europe’s largest destinations, such as the UK
(+6%), Spain (+5%), Germany (+4%), Austria and Italy (both
+3%). Almost all the medium-sized destinations report above
average growth in the range of 5% to 7% increases and
destinations moving from a small base even reach two-digit
growth. Flat growth is reported by Scandinavian destinations,
while Cyprus (-5%) and Belgium (-2%) continue to struggle.
Consumers remain cost-conscious and consolidate the trend
towards shorter stays, as suggested by a more moderate
growth in overnights compared to arrivals. A notable exception
is Bulgaria (+6% in arrivals and +8% in overnights), which
actively tackles seasonality through product diversification.
Data also point to a higher than usual concentration of visits
during the summer months, which puts additional pressure on
destinations congested during their peak season.
International travel from the UK and France eventually
rebound, on top of a strong performance of the German
market. Travel demand from Russia persists at high growth
levels, turning this market into a consistent source of visitors
for a growing number of ETC destinations. These results offset
the negative performance of the Netherlands and Italy, two
large source markets challenged by a negative economic
climate.
Travel from the US remains solid, although growth somewhat
slowed throughout the year, reflecting business and consumer
confidence stall over fiscal uncertainty. The Chinese travel
market remains the fastest-growing market for most ETC
destinations, supported by the rise of personal incomes and
living standards. After a false start, Japanese outbound travel
shows signs of improvement through the summer months,
although the effect of economic stimuli remains uncertain.
1 UNWTO, World Tourism Barometer, Volume 11, October 2013.
International Tourist Arrivals in 2013*, % p.y.
Source: UNWTO * estimate
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
World Europe Asia and thePacific
Americas Africa Middle East
Foreign arrivals to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Year-to-date growth…
Source: TourMIS * date varies by destination
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
AUT CYP EST IRL ITA LVA LTU SRB SVN ESP GBR
...through June … through August
European tourism and the economy
Annual % change
Source: UNWTO, IMF *provisional data
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
08/07 09/08 10/09 11/10 12*/11
International tourism receipts International tourist arrivals GDP
2 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Destinations in Europe successfully capture growth potential, but remain exposed to
changes in aviation strategies
Targeted strategies are the solid foundation of Europe’s growth. Ireland (+7%) reaps the benefit of “The
Gathering Ireland”, a global campaign targeting the 70 million people Irish diaspora, while Germany
(+4%) consolidates growth through a theme year focussed on young travellers. Other ETC members
capitalise on the international exposure received through large-scale events, such as Italy on the
occasion of the Pope’s election, Lithuania (+8%) through the Presidency of the EU Council and Slovakia
(+16%) celebrating Kosice as European City of Culture for 2013. Strengthening the perception of a good
value-for-money tourism destination contributed to make Hungary (+6%) increasingly attractive to
international travellers.
The coordination between tourism and aviation turned out to be crucial for the success of destinations
such as Malta (+9%), Croatia (+6%) and Portugal (+8%), who benefit of route expansion. Opposite side
of the same coin, Estonia subdued growth (+3%) is mainly linked to route cuts with airports in Germany
and the UK, with trickle down effects on travel from markets connected via these hubs. Similarly, Finnair’s
strategy to focus on Asian routes exposed Finland’s tourism sector to a reduced accessibility from its key
markets, as reflected in the destination’s flat growth.
Tax burden could halt European tourism take-off
There have been encouraging signs that an economic recovery is underway in Europe, although annual
growth is estimated at 0% in the EU and -0,4% in the euro area. Prospects for next year point to a
gradually increasing pace of growth, pointing to 1,4 % in the EU and 1,1 % the euro area in 20142,
underpinned in many cases by the significant structural reforms and fiscal consolidation.
Tourism remains one of the best performing sectors in many European economies, and a significant
source of income and labour. Tourism may be seen as an increasingly appealing source of government
revenues through additional taxation. Instead, tourism resilience should be an incentive for governments
to build a legislative framework that encourages growth in this sector, as this would spread over the
broader economy. “Croatia is a success story in this respect”, says Eduardo Santander, Executive
Director at ETC. ”The Croatian government approved a 50% cut in VAT on tourism services at the
beginning of this year. This measure provided tourism businesses margin to compete on price with more
cost effective destinations. International visits to Croatia grew by a promising +4% through August and
tourism positively contributed to economic growth3”.
ETC Market Intelligence Group
ETC Executive Unit
2 Source: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/eu/forecasts/2013_autumn_forecast_en.htm.
3 Source: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/european_economy/2013/pdf/ee7_en.pdf.
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 1
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
2013 Tourism Performance Summary
4 The figure for international tourist arrivals in Italy (2.5%) is based on data from “Osservatorio Nazionale del
Turismo”, as the definition of indicators is more consistent with reporting by most other destinations. According to
the source “Bank of Italy”, international tourist arrivals (Jan-Jul) are -1.1%. However, the lower figure reflects
different tendencies between the travel with overnight stays (2.5%) and daily visits (-7%).
Initial data available for the peak summer months suggest some clear improvement in
travel demand for European destinations. Increased tourism demand coincided with a
pick-up in economic fortunes as the Eurozone economy emerged from the longest
recession in three decades in mid-2013.
Of the 25 European destinations reporting inbound travel trends through at least May, a
full 23 report that arrivals have been higher than in 2012 (using data reported through
TourMIS). Growth markets account for over 80% of tourist arrivals in these reporting
destinations. However, there remain some notable weak points in terms of both
destination and origin markets despite the improvement. A rapid rebound to growth rates
seen in previous upturns remains unlikely.
Growth in the key summer months has accelerated from earlier in the year. Of the 23
destinations reporting arrivals growth for the year to date, a majority reported stronger
growth in the more recent data than earlier in the year.
Some of the larger markets have seen improvement during the summer including Spain,
UK, and Italy. The markets which have seen acceleration during the summer account for
around half of all arrivals in reporting destinations including Italy, which is reporting
growth of 2.5% through July4.
But the picture is not overwhelmingly positive with a soft summer performance for some
destinations, while travel from some large European origin markets, including Germany,
the Netherlands and Italy, remains subdued.
Tourism demand within Europe remained resilient throughout the recession. With a return
to economic growth, we expect to see some stronger growth in tourism demand from
Western European markets moving into 2014. But there is less scope for a strong
rebound than has been seen in other recovery periods. Demand has also been supported
by some growth from emerging markets, including from Eastern Europe and this source
of demand is expected to slow.
Cyprus stands out towards the bottom of the growth table and has experienced very large
falls in arrivals for the year to date. Falls were particularly marked earlier in the year
around the time of the financial crisis. Arrivals fell 14% in April alone.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Icela
nd
Slo
vakia
Se
rbia
Latv
iaM
alta
Lithuania
Hungary
Irela
nd R
ep
Cro
atia
UK
Bulg
aria
Pola
nd
Gre
ece
Sp
ain
Monte
negro
Germ
any
Esto
nia
Neth
erlands
Austr
iaS
lovenia
Italy
Rom
ania
Czech R
ep
Belg
ium
Cypru
s
Foreign visits to select destinations2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Slo
vakia
Latv
iaS
erb
iaM
alta
Po
rtug
al
Bulg
aria
Lithuania
Hungary
Pola
nd
Spain
Germ
any
Cro
atia
Neth
erlands
Monte
negro
Sw
itzerland
Ro
ma
nia
Esto
nia
Austr
iaC
zech R
ep
Sw
eden
Luxem
bo
urg
Slo
venia
Fin
land
Denm
ark
Norw
ay
Belg
ium
Cypru
s
Foreign visitor nights in select destinations2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
2 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Travel demand for the period June-September is crucial for the year as a whole given the
volume of travel in these summer months, accounting for around half of all arrivals.
Overwhelmingly positive trends for the year to these months are very encouraging signs for
the industry in 2013 and into 2014.
Country % ytd to month % ytd to month
Austria 2.6 Jan-Aug 1.7 Jan-Aug
Belgium -1.5 Jan-Jun -3.2 Jan-Jun
Bulgaria 5.8 Jan-Aug 7.5 Jan-Jul
Croatia 6.0 Jan-Aug 4.0 Jan-Aug
Cyprus -5.3 Jan-Aug -8.6 Jan-May
Czech Rep 1.3 Jan-Jun 1.5 Jan-Jun
Denmark -0.9 Jan-Aug
Estonia 3.4 Jan-Aug 2.1 Jan-Aug
Finland 0.2 Jan-Jul
Germany 3.6 Jan-Aug 4.1 Jan-Aug
Greece 4.6 Jan-Mar
Hungary 6.6 Jan-Aug 5.9 Jan-Aug
Iceland 20.0 Jan-Aug
Ireland Rep 6.5 Jan-Aug
Italy 2.5 Jan-Jul
Latvia 11.2 Jan-Jun 10.8 Jan-Jun
Lithuania 8.0 Jan-Jun 7.0 Jan-Jun
Luxembourg 0.6 Jan-Aug
Malta 8.7 Jan-Aug 9.2 Jan-Aug
Montenegro 4.0 Jan-Aug 2.3 Jan-Aug
Netherlands 3.0 Jan-Jun 3.5 Jan-Jun
Norway -1.5 Jan-Jul
Poland 5.0 Jan-Jul 4.7 Jan-Jul
Portugal 7.8 Jan-Jul
Romania 2.3 Jan-May 2.2 Jan-May
Serbia 11.3 Jan-Aug 9.3 Jan-Aug
Slovakia 16.1 Jan-Jun 11.5 Jan-Jun
Slovenia 2.5 Jan-Jun 0.3 Jan-Jun
Spain 4.5 Jan-Aug 4.5 Jan-Aug
Sweden 1.3 Jan-Aug
Switzerland 2.3 Jan-Jul
UK 6.0 Jan-Aug
Source: TourMIS, http://www.tourmis.info; available data as of 29.10.13
Measures used for nights and arrivals vary by country
See TourMIS for further data including absolute values.
International Arrivals International Nights
Tourist Arrivals and Nights
2013 Performance, Year to Date
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 3
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Global Tourism Forecast Summary
Tourism Economics’ global travel forecasts are shown on an inbound and
outbound basis in the following table. These are the results of the Tourism
Decision Metrics (TDM) model, which is updated in detail three times per year.
Forecasts are consistent to Oxford Economics’ macroeconomic outlook according
to estimated relationships between tourism and the wider economy. Full origin-
destination country detail is available online to subscribers.
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
World 5.5% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4% 5.5% 4.3% 4.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.9%
Americas 3.9% 4.6% 3.2% 4.5% 5.1% 3.2% 5.4% 3.2% 4.4% 5.2%
North America 3.0% 4.4% 3.4% 4.0% 4.8% 0.2% 5.0% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8%
Caribbean 2.2% 4.3% 1.8% 4.1% 4.0% -5.0% 4.5% 5.5% 5.8% 6.4%
Central & South America 7.9% 5.2% 3.4% 6.0% 6.9% 16.4% 6.9% 4.9% 5.2% 6.2%
Europe 7.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.4% 4.5% 3.6% 4.1% 3.8% 3.3% 4.7%
EU 6.9% 2.5% 1.9% 2.6% 3.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 2.7% 4.0%
Non-EU 9.5% 7.5% 9.3% 5.8% 7.6% 11.3% 13.5% 10.6% 5.1% 6.3%
Northern 11.6% 0.5% 2.8% 3.3% 4.7% 4.4% 2.3% 1.4% 2.9% 3.7%
Western 4.5% 2.8% 0.4% 2.0% 3.5% 3.9% 1.5% 1.6% 3.4% 4.0%
Southern/Mediterranean 7.8% 1.9% 3.8% 4.0% 3.8% 1.0% -1.1% -0.4% 0.9% 2.6%
Central/Eastern 8.8% 8.1% 7.9% 4.7% 6.6% 4.4% 11.6% 9.5% 4.9% 6.9%
- Central & Baltic 6.4% 6.1% 4.5% 2.1% 4.9% -4.1% 2.3% 5.2% 3.5% 6.7%
Asia & the Pacific 6.3% 7.0% 6.5% 6.7% 7.7% 7.3% 8.4% 7.9% 6.5% 8.0%
North East 3.8% 6.1% 3.7% 7.8% 8.2% 7.7% 9.5% 8.5% 7.7% 8.4%
South East 10.2% 9.4% 11.3% 5.4% 7.8% 5.2% 8.1% 7.1% 2.7% 6.6%
South 12.2% 5.7% 3.9% 7.0% 5.7% 11.0% 0.2% 6.1% 7.6% 9.5%
Oceania 2.8% 2.3% 5.0% 4.3% 5.0% 7.1% 4.9% 5.4% 6.5% 5.8%
Africa -6.2% 7.8% 4.5% 4.2% 4.8% 4.1% 2.7% 5.7% 2.2% 4.6%
Mid East 2.6% -5.3% 8.5% 4.6% 6.7% -0.4% -4.0% 11.3% 4.9% 6.3%
* Inbound is based on the sum of the country overnight tourist arrivals and includes intra-regional flows
** Outbound is based on the sum of visits to all destinations
EU = Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Germany, Hungary,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia,
Slovenia, Spain, Sw eden, UK
Non-EU Europe is all European countries (listed below ) outside EU
Northern Europe = Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norw ay, Sw eden, UK
Western Europe = Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Sw itzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe = Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy, Malta,
Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lativia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Ukraine
of w hich
Central Europe & Baltic countries = Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia
Inbound*
TDM Visitor Growth Forecasts, % change
Outbound**
4 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Recent Industry Performance
Subdued growth but improvement in summer 2013
Tourism demand has picked up in summer 2013 after a slower start to the year,
with clear improvement in developed markets including Europe.
European airlines continue to achieve record load factors and notably on intra-
European travel with efficiency improvements.
Long-haul demand for European tourism continues to grow and regional demand
has improved.
Hotel occupancy rates improved during the summer months.
Room rates are also rising suggesting increased confidence about future growth.
Air Transport
Global air passenger transport demand has picked up
during the summer months but growth remains lower than
longer-run trends. Passenger demand in the three months
to August was 6.2% higher than in the previous year,
indicated by revenue passenger kilometres (RPK). This is
a clear acceleration from the 4.9% increase in the prior
three months. Acceleration co-incides with the
improvement in economic demand trends in some
developed markets and we expect the early 2013 dip to
mark the trough in this slowdown.
Clear regional differences are evident with summer
improvement in passenger growth related to North
America and Europe. Some emerging markets are still
slowing, and notably Latin American growth in 2013 to
date is slower than in the previous three years. Demand
in APAC countries has improved somewhat in recent
months, but demand earlier in the years was heavily
disrupted by geo-political factors.
0
5
10
15
20
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe LatinAmerica
Mid.East N.America World
Apr-2013
May-2013
Jul-2013
Aug-2013
% year
Source: IATA
Monthly international air passenger growth
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
RPK = revenue passenger kms
Source: IATA
3 month moving average
Icelandic Ash Cloud Impact
International air passenger traffic growth% year, RPK
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe LatinAmerica
Mid.East N.America World
0
5
10
15
202011
2012
2013 ytd
% year, RPK
Source: IATA
Annual international air passenger growth
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 5
© European Travel Commission November 2013
European international airline demand has also improved, according to AEA data, although
growth is uneven with some slowdown in recent weeks. There was a clear acceleration
during the summer but some recent slower growth suggests some caution is still required in
interpreting the recent trend as typical for future growth.
Load factors have continued to edge higher as airlines have remained cautious in adding
capacity, while existing space is apparently being used more efficiently. Improvement is
most notable on intra-European travel, with load factors likely to reach around 75% for
2013. This is up from a typical rate of less than 70% in the years to 2009 prior to the
financial crisis when capacity usage began to edge up; load factors averaged around 72%
between 2010 and 2012.
Long haul travel has exceeded total European airline demand, but the total trend contains
domestic demand which has fallen throughout 2013. European cross-border demand has
seen the largest improvement during the summer and short-haul traffic has overtaken long-
haul demand.
Air travel between Europe and the Americas has grown at 4.1% so far in 2013, with resilient
growth in the most recent weeks and months. Travel between Asia and Europe on
European Airlines has grown by 4.6% in the year to date but has been more volatile and a
slowdown is reflected in the most recent data.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
201
2Q
1
2012Q
2
2012Q
3
2012Q
4
2013Q
1
2013Q
2
2013Q
3
RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
RPK = revenue passenger kms
Source: AEA
European airline passenger traffic: Asia
Europe-Asia
Total European Airlines
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Weekly load factor, %
Source: AEA
European airlines passenger load factor
20122013
2011
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2012Q
1
2012Q
2
2012Q
3
2012Q
4
2013Q
1
2013Q
2
2013Q
3
RPK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
RPK = revenue passenger kms
Source: AEA
European airline passenger traffic: Americas
Europe-Americas
Total European Airlines
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
ASK, 4 week moving average, % change year ago
Source: AEA
European airlines capacity
2013
2011
2012
Comment [NK]: And
between 2010-2012?
6 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Asia/Pacific Americas Europe MiddleEast/Africa
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6 Occ ADR* RevPAR*
Global Hotel Performance, Jan-Aug 2013
% change year ago
Source: STR Global * ADR and RevPAR denominated in US$ except for Europe
Accommodation
Hotel data has indicated a slowing trend for much of 2013 on aggregate, although
there are clear regional differences, supportive of the trends in airline data.
Demand and room rates have fallen in Asia Pacific with notable weakness in
China related to government business travel. Tension between the Republic of
Korea and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea deterred some visitors to
the region, and notably to those states, while further tension between China and
Japan may also have contributed to the slowdown.
Occupancy growth in the Americas has slowed, with weaker performance in both
North America and Latin America. ADR has improved, primarily in North America
as occupancy remains high with good prospects of a return to growth.
Europe is a clear exception to the demand trend, which is growing after relatively
flat performance last year. Occupancy in European hotels in the first eight months
of the year was 2.4% higher than a year earlier. This is an improvement on the
growth of 1.8% recorded in the first five months of the year and indicates
acceleration in occupancy (and likely in room demand) through the important
summer months.
However, ADR remains lower than a year earlier over the same period. This is
due in part to some concerns regarding the outlook on the part of the hotel
industry and an apparent reluctance to raise rates.
A significant factor in the lower ADR is comparison to some inflated rates due to
last summer’s mega-events. The UEFA Euro 2012 in Poland pushed ADR to
levels 90% higher than the prior year in June 2012. The London Olympics inflated
UK average room rate during August 2012 and ADR rose around 20%. Large
falls are evident in data for corresponding months in 2013 as rates return to more
sustainable levels.
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 7
© European Travel Commission November 2013
ADR growth for Europe as a whole excluding UK and Poland would be around
1.5% (in euro terms) rather than the 1.8% fall reported for the region. The growth
excluding the two affected countries is arguably a better reflection of underlying
strength. ADR growth for Northern Europe excluding the UK is estimated to be
around 5% in the year to date, while excluding Poland from Eastern Europe would
show a much smaller fall of less than 1%.
It is notable that rates in Southern Europe have risen, and even accelerated during
the summer, while the decline in Western Europe has been minimal despite similar
occupancy trends. This may reflect relative access to credit and ability to operate
with temporary losses rather than underlying strength or confidence.
Occupancy trends are now positive in 20 out of the 25 countries with growth
reported across all sub-regions in the year-to-date. But growth remains subdued in
some large countries and is notably flat in France, which does not report data
through TourMIS. Meanwhile, hotel data for Italy are surprisingly strong given falls
in arrivals, but this may involve an increase in domestic demand, suggested by
outbound data.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Europe EasternEurope
NorthernEurope
SouthernEurope
WesternEurope
Occ ADR (€) RevPAR (€)
European hotel performance, Jan-Aug 2013
% change year ago
Source: STR Global
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Slo
vakia
Pola
nd
Ire
lan
d
Lith
ua
nia
Ita
ly
Hu
ng
ary
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Port
ug
al
Ru
ssia
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Cze
ch
Re
pub
lic
De
nm
ark
Malta
Spa
in
Ge
rma
ny
Ro
ma
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Gre
ece
Fra
nce
Austr
ia
Belg
ium
Tu
rke
y
Esto
nia
Fin
lan
d
Hotel occupancy ratesJan-Aug year to date, % change year ago
Source: STR Global
8 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Room rate trends are more positive than earlier in the year, with 16 of the 25
countries reporting higher ADR in the year to date than in 2012, measured in local
currencies.
Rate increases are notable in some Northern countries which have been
performing well on all measures. There is also further large improvement in some
Southern countries.
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Lith
ua
nia
Esto
nia
De
nm
ark
Tu
rke
y
Hu
ng
ary
Ire
lan
d
Ma
lta
Po
rtu
ga
l
Gre
ece
Ru
ssia
Spa
in
Fra
nce
Ita
ly
Cze
ch
Re
pub
lic
Belg
ium
Ge
rma
ny
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Austr
ia
Fin
lan
d
Ro
ma
nia
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Slo
va
kia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Pola
nd
Hotel average daily rate (ADR)Jan-Aug year to date, local currency, % change year ago
Source : STR Global
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Lith
ua
nia
Hu
ng
ary
Ire
lan
d
De
nm
ark
Slo
va
kia
Port
ug
al
Ru
ssia
Ita
ly
Ma
lta
Esto
nia
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Tu
rke
y
Spa
in
Gre
ece
Cze
ch
Re
pub
lic
Fra
nce
Un
ite
d K
ingd
om
Germ
an
y
Belg
ium
Au
str
ia
Ro
ma
nia
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Fin
lan
d
Po
lan
d
Hotel revenue per available room (RevPAR)
Jan-Aug year to date, local currency, % change year ago
Source: STR Global
% change year ago Occupancy ADR RevPAR
Austria 0.0 -0.3 -0.3
Belgium -0.1 0.3 0.1
Czech Republic 2.1 1.3 3.5
Denmark 1.9 6.3 8.3
Estonia -2.3 7.4 4.9
Finland -4.6 -1.3 -5.8
France 0.0 2.5 2.5
Germany 0.9 0.2 1.1
Greece 0.8 2.9 3.7
Hungary 4.9 5.6 10.7
Ireland 5.3 4.7 10.3
Italy 4.9 1.9 6.9
Lithuania 5.1 9.5 15.1
Malta 1.4 4.6 6.0
Netherlands 0.8 -3.0 -2.2
Poland 6.6 -16.5 -11.0
Portugal 4.3 3.1 7.5
Romania 0.9 -2.0 -1.2
Russia 4.1 2.9 7.1
Slovakia 10.5 -2.5 7.7
Spain 1.2 2.5 3.8
Switzerland 4.8 -0.2 4.5
Turkey -1.7 6.1 4.3
United Kingdom 4.0 -2.0 1.9
Source: STR Global
Hotel Performance
Year to Date, Jan-Aug 2013
ADR = Average Daily Rate, RevPAR = Revenue per Available Room, ADR
and RevPAR in local currency
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 9
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Key Source Market Performance
Some continued growth in early 2013
Travel demand for 2013 to date has continued to grow with some
encouraging data for the peak summer months*.
Major Western European source markets continue to show uneven growth
with many destinations still reporting lower arrivals from these markets.
The UK stands out as a top-performing origin market within Western
Europe, with notable improvement during the summer.
Russian travel demand continues to increase in importance for European
destinations, leading other emerging markets.
*Trends discussed in this section are for up to the first 5-8 months of the year. These are
inclusive of at least part of the peak June-September period. Arrivals during this period
acocunt for around half of European international arrivals. Trends shown will not exactly
match final 2013 growth but should be indicative of full year performance in most
instances.
Further detailed monthly data for origin and destination, including absolute values, can be
obtained from TourMIS, http://tourmis.info.
Key intra-European markets
Tourism visits from Germany continue to grow in a majority of destinations but 8 out of
23 destinations are reporting demand falling in the year to date. The mixed
performance is typified by two of the top destinations for German tourists. Spain is
reporting a 4.2% growth in arrivals for the year to August while Italy is reporting a 7.1%
fall in the year to June.
A majority of destinations reporting overnights from Germany still show falls in 2013 to
date. For destinations reporting both metrics, shorter length of stay is still a feature for
most markets as some cost savings are still being sought.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Icela
nd
Slo
vakia
UK
Bulg
aria
Serb
iaP
ola
nd
Malta
Monte
negro
Cro
atia
Spain
Gre
ece
Neth
erlands
Austr
iaG
erm
any
Lithuania
Rom
ania
Belg
ium
Latv
iaH
ungary
Czech R
ep
Slo
venia
Italy
Esto
nia
Cypru
s
Visits from Germany to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Port
ugal
Malta
Pola
nd
Slo
vakia
Luxem
bourg
Neth
erlands
Cro
atia
Austr
iaS
erb
iaG
erm
any
Sw
eden
Monte
negro
Sw
itzerland
Latv
iaS
pain
Belg
ium
Czech R
ep
Denm
ark
Rom
ania
Hungary
Slo
venia
Lithuania
Fin
land
Esto
nia
Bulg
aria
Norw
ay
Cypru
s
German visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
10 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Slo
venia
Italy
Slo
vakia
UK
Malta
Icela
nd
Pola
nd
Rom
ania
Hungary
Cro
atia
Serb
ia
Spain
Germ
any
Austr
ia
Monte
negro
Lithuania
Bulg
aria
Czech R
ep
Belg
ium
Esto
nia
Gre
ece
Visits from Netherlands to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Slo
venia
Malta
Slo
vakia
Pola
nd
Rom
ania
Hungary
Spain
Port
ugal
Sw
eden
Germ
any
Denm
ark
Cro
atia
Austr
iaS
witzerla
nd
Fin
land
Luxem
bourg
Czech R
ep
Lithuania
Serb
iaB
elg
ium
Norw
ay
Bulg
aria
Monte
negro
Esto
nia
Cypru
s
Netherlands nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Icela
nd
Cro
atia
Malta
Monte
negro
UK
Pola
nd
Spain
Italy
Hungary
Germ
any
Neth
erlands
Serb
iaB
elg
ium
Latv
iaB
ulg
aria
Slo
vakia
Rom
ania
Austr
iaS
lovenia
Czech R
ep
Esto
nia
Gre
ece
Lithuania
Visits from France to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Lithuania
Port
uga
lS
pain
Malta
Latv
iaM
onte
negro
Pola
nd
Bulg
aria
Cro
atia
Luxem
bourg
Belg
ium
Germ
any
Hungary
Slo
venia
Neth
erlands
Fin
land
Sw
itzerlan
dD
enm
ark
Austr
iaN
orw
ay
Serb
iaC
zech R
ep
Sw
eden
Rom
ania
Esto
nia
Slo
vakia
Cypru
s
French visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
Netherlands tourism demand remains weak overall with a majority of destinations
still reporting lower arrivals or overnights than a year earlier. Travel to Belgium
has been surprisingly weak in the summer, with arrivals reportedly down 10% in
the year to date.
In a reversal of German trends, Dutch arrivals in Spain are lower than during
2012, while travel to Italy has bucked the wider trend with 15.8% growth in
arrivals. UK arrivals from Netherlands also rose 9.0%.
Recent data relating to French travel demand are more positive than data for earlier
in the year as more destinations are now reporting that French arrivals and
overnights were higher than in 2012.
The UK also reports strong arrivals growth of 7.0%, consistent with UK reporting for
most European origin markets and especially notable in August data following low
visitation in August 2012.
Unusually, Lithuania is reportedly the strongest European market in terms of
French overnights but the weakest in terms of arrivals, indicating a big swing
towards longer length of stay. However, this more likely highlights some uncertainty
in the data for the year to date.
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 11
© European Travel Commission November 2013
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Icela
nd
Malta
Slo
vakia
UK
Gre
ece
Hungary
Rom
ania
Neth
erlands
Pola
nd
Bulg
aria
Cro
atia
Germ
any
Slo
venia
Belg
ium
Austr
ia
Czech R
ep
Spain
Esto
nia
Serb
ia
Latv
ia
Monte
negro
Lithuania
Visits from Italy to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
Italian travel to other European countries has remained weak overall, notwithstanding
some robust growth reported by select, and mainly smaller, destinations. There is also
a rebound in travel to the UK, of 9.0% growth.
Overnight trends are weaker than for arrivals indicating some further cost savings being
sought by Italian tourists. Other European destinations may be losing out to some
substitution by Italians towards domestic travel. This could also help explain the 4.9%
rise in hotel occupancy while arrivals in Italy have fallen.
British overseas travel demand has improved significantly as 2013 has progressed
according to UK International Passenger Survey (IPS) carried out by National
Statistics with outbound trips 3% higher than a year earlier in the year to August,
including stronger performance during the summer months. Travel to Europe is up a
reported 4% for the year to date.
This is typified by the reported 4.8% growth in travel to Spain (the top destination for
UK travellers), up from 4.4% in the year to June. Among other important destinations
Ireland and Germany report robust growth of 3.6% and 6.2% while travel to Italy has
fallen by 1.4%. There remains scope for further acceleration in UK travel growth given
improvements in the economic outlook and some likely pent-up demand.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Luxem
bourg
Malta
Slo
vakia
Denm
ark
Rom
ania
Neth
erlands
Hungary
Sw
eden
Germ
any
Sw
itzerland
Pola
nd
Cro
atia
Belg
ium
Norw
ay
Port
ugal
Austr
iaS
lovenia
Fin
land
Esto
nia
Bulg
aria
Czech R
ep
Latv
iaS
pain
Cypru
sM
onte
negro
Serb
iaLithuania
Italian visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Icela
nd
Cro
atia
Hungary
Lithuania
Monte
negro
Slo
vakia
Slo
venia
Serb
iaG
erm
any
Austr
iaB
elg
ium
Malta
Spain
Pola
nd
Irela
nd R
ep
Czech R
ep
Latv
iaN
eth
erlands
Italy
Bulg
aria
Rom
ania
Cypru
sE
sto
nia
Gre
ece
Visits from UK to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
41.1
>
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Lithuania
Cro
atia
Hungary
Monte
negro
Fin
land
Slo
venia
Bulg
aria
Port
uga
lD
enm
ark
Germ
any
Spain
Luxem
bourg
Latv
iaM
alta
Belg
ium
Slo
vakia
Sw
itzerlan
dA
ustr
iaP
ola
nd
Czech R
ep
Serb
iaR
om
ania
Sw
eden
Neth
erlands
Norw
ay
Cypru
sE
sto
nia
British visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
12 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Russia is becoming an increasingly important market with further growth reported in
most European destinations. European arrivals from Russia are now believed to have
roughly doubled between 2009 and 2013, taking an increased share of European
demand from 3% to 6% of total European arrivals. Growth is now being shared by
several Western European destinations, having previously been skewed more towards
Eastern destinations.
Russian travel to Greece has been especially strong in 2013 as the fourth consecutive
year of double-digit growth. Travel volumes are now roughly five times larger than in
2009. Russia now comprises almost 9% Greek inbound, up from just 2% in 2009.
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Gre
ece
Icela
nd
Slo
vakia
Rom
ania
Serb
iaLatv
iaS
pa
inM
onte
negro
Cypru
sLithuania
Hungary
Malta
Neth
erlands
Germ
any
Bulg
aria
Esto
nia
Italy
Slo
venia
Czech R
ep
Austr
iaB
elg
ium
Pola
nd
UK
Cro
atia
Visits from Russia to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
71.2
>
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Rom
ania
Slo
vakia
Serb
iaC
ypru
sS
pain
Lithuania
Hungary
Latv
iaN
eth
erlands
Monte
negro
Port
ugal
Germ
any
Denm
ark
Esto
nia
Czech R
ep
Malta
Bulg
aria
Norw
ay
Austr
iaLuxem
bourg
Fin
land
Belg
ium
Sw
eden
Sw
itzerland
Pola
nd
Slo
venia
Cro
atia
Russian visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 13
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Non-European markets
Long-haul travel demand has continued to grow in the latest reported data, consistent
with airline data. But the pace of growth from some long-haul markets may be slower
than previously estimated for 2013.
Slower travel demand follows some moderate economic growth in major long-haul
origin markets. However, in some emerging markets, such as China, this impact will be
offset by the continued positive impact of rising household incomes. This dynamic is
enabling more households to afford international travel.
US travel demand has apparently slowed during 2013, but is positive overall. Italy
stands out as a large destination that has continued to receive an increasing number of
US arrivals, up 13.5% in 2013 to date. By contrast, travel to the UK has fallen, although
this typifies the long-haul reaction to the 2012 Olympics with stronger arrivals for the
event period leading to some offsetting slower growth this year.
Japanese travel to Europe has picked up during the summer, with more destinations
reporting growth in arrivals. Economic stimulus and stronger growth in the domestic
economy may be having some beneficial impact, although the weaker yen and lower
affordability of international travel remains a challenge for long-haul destinations.
Japanese outbound travel has been stronger to Asian markets than for long-haul
destinations.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Slo
vakia
Latv
iaIc
ela
nd
Cro
atia
Hungary
Slo
venia
Italy
Pola
nd
Serb
iaA
ustr
iaLithuania
Bulg
aria
Malta
Germ
any
Czech R
ep
Monte
negro
Spain
Rom
ania
UK
Belg
ium
Gre
ece
Esto
nia
Neth
erlands
Visits from US to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Latv
iaC
roatia
Port
ugal
Bulg
aria
Hungary
Serb
iaP
ola
nd
Lithuania
Slo
vakia
Luxem
bourg
Malta
Denm
ark
Sw
itzerland
Austr
iaC
ypru
sG
erm
any
Slo
venia
Czech R
ep
Rom
ania
Fin
land
Esto
nia
Sw
eden
Neth
erlands
Belg
ium
Norw
ay
Monte
negro
US visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
53
.9 >
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Icela
nd
Esto
nia
Gre
ece
Pola
nd
Italy
Rom
ania
Neth
erlands
Monte
negro
Belg
ium
Austr
ia
Slo
vakia
Hungary
Cro
atia
Germ
any
Bulg
aria
UK
Serb
ia
Lithuania
Czech R
ep
Slo
venia
Visits from Japan to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Cypru
sB
ulg
aria
Port
ugal
Fin
land
Pola
nd
Esto
nia
Luxem
bourg
Lithuania
Hungary
Spa
inS
lovakia
Neth
erlands
Austr
iaS
witzerland
Rom
ania
Germ
any
Belg
ium
Cro
atia
Denm
ark
Czech R
ep
Sw
eden
Norw
ay
Serb
iaS
lovenia
Monte
negro
Japanese visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
14 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Chinese travel has continued to grow strongly in most European destinations. Growth is
also reported to the UK, although this is towards the lower end of reported rates by
comparison to a strong performance in 2012 likely related to the Olympics.
The rise in incomes and continuing increase in the proportion of Chinese households
able to afford international travel is a clear positive factor for global tourism. For now this
is offsetting the effects of slower economic growth projections (factored into Tourism
Economics tourism model). Slower economic growth is having more of an impact on
business travel within Asia than on longer-haul and leisure travel.
Indian demand for travel to Europe remains weak in the limited data reported for 2013.
For the most popular destinations among Indian tourists, UK and Germany report
growth of 5% and 10% respectively. However, Switzerland reports a 1% drop in arrivals
for the year to date while Italian arrivals are 20% lower than in 2012. This is consistent
with the subdued economic growth within India. An expected return to economic reform
should stimulate the economy within the short to medium term outlook and travel
prospects from India remain positive overall.
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Esto
nia
Slo
venia
Cro
atia
Icela
nd
Neth
erlands
Bulg
aria
Rom
ania
Belg
ium
Serb
ia
Czech R
ep
Slo
vakia
Germ
any
Austr
ia
Pola
nd
UK
Gre
ece
Italy
Lithuania
Visits from China to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Cypru
s
Norw
ay
Esto
nia
Denm
ark
Slo
vakia
Rom
ania
Sw
itzerland
Neth
erlands
Fin
land
Cro
atia
Sw
eden
Austr
ia
Slo
venia
Luxem
bourg
Belg
ium
Czech R
ep
Pola
nd
Germ
any
Serb
ia
Lithuania
Chinese visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
238.9
>
64.6
>
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Slo
vakia
Cro
atia
Germ
any
Bulg
aria
Czech R
ep
UK
Austr
ia
Neth
erlands
Pola
nd
Belg
ium
Italy
Rom
ania
Visits from India to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
90.3
>
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Slo
vakia
Sw
eden
Pola
nd
Fin
land
Austr
ia
Germ
any
Czech R
ep
Sw
itzerland
Neth
erlands
Belg
ium
Cro
atia
Rom
ania
Indian visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 15
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Travel trends from Canada remain uneven and similar to the pattern from the US. A
majority of destinations report falling arrivals and overnights from Canada as economic and
travel demand growth has slowed in 2013 to date. Large European destinations such as
UK, Italy and Germany report continued arrivals growth although there has been little
improvement to note as 2013 has progressed.
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Icela
nd
Cro
atia
Serb
ia
UK
Italy
Slo
vakia
Slo
venia
Germ
any
Bulg
aria
Monte
negro
Austr
ia
Neth
erlands
Belg
ium
Czech R
ep
Pola
nd
Rom
ania
Gre
ece
Lithuania
Visits from Canada to select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Norw
ay
Serb
ia
Cro
atia
Port
ugal
Denm
ark
Germ
any
Sw
eden
Slo
venia
Neth
erlands
Sw
itzerland
Austr
ia
Slo
vakia
Monte
negro
Belg
ium
Pola
nd
Czech R
ep
Fin
land
Rom
ania
Lithuania
Cypru
s
Canadian visitor nights in select destinations
2013, year-to-date*, % change year ago
Source : TourMIS *date varies (May-Aug) by destination
16 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
United States
Origin Market Share Analysis
Based on the Tourism Decision Metrics (TDM) model, the following charts and analysis show Europe’s
evolving market position - in absolute and percentage terms - for selected source markets. 2012 values
remain preliminary estimates and are not final reported data.
84.7 million tourists traveled from the US in 2013. Of
these, 31.4 million traveled within North America, while
53.4 million (63.0%) traveled to long haul destinations.
US tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 23.4 million,
representing 43.8% of the US long haul outbound market.
US tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled 5.1
million, representing 22.0% of US arrivals to Europe.
US tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled 9.1
million, representing 38.9% of US arrivals to Europe.
US tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled 5.9
million, representing 25.3% of US arrivals to Europe.
US tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 3.2 million, representing 13.8% of US arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the US market was 9.6% in
2013, a 4.9 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the US market was 17.1% in
2013, a 1.9 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the US market was 12.2% in
2013, a 2.3 percentage point increase from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the US market was
8.3% in 2013, a 0.7 percentage point increase from 2003.
Long haul outbound from the US is forecast to grow 5.4%
per year on average to 2018
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase
33.9% through 2018, to 6.9 million. Northern Europe's
share of the US market is forecast to rise to 9.9% in 2018
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase
19.5% through 2018, to 10.9 million. Western Europe's
share of the US market is forecast to fall to 15.7% 2018
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase
16.2% through 2018, to 6.9 million. Southern Europe's
share of the US market is forecast to fall to 11.0% 2018
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to
increase 32.6% through 2018, to 4.3 million.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the US market is
forecast to rise to 8.3% 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
201
0
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Europe's share of US marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
Note: this analysis is based on the Tourism Decision Metrics
(TDM) model. The geographies of Europe are defined as:
Northern Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland,
Norway, Sweden, UK
Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Switzerland
Southern/Mediterranean Europe: Albania, Bosnia-
Herzogovina, Croatia, Cyprus, FYR Macedonia, Greece, Italy,
Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey
Central/Eastern Europe: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bulgaria,
Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation,
Slovakia, Ukraine
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 17
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Canada
35.9 million tourists traveled from Canada in 2013. Of these,
24.6 million traveled within North America, while 11.3 million
(31.5%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Canadian tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 4.5 million,
representing 40.2% of the Canadian long haul outbound
market.
Canadian tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
1.1 million, representing 24.7% of Canadian arrivals to
Europe.
Canadian tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
1.6 million, representing 36.1% of Canadian arrivals to
Europe.
Canadian tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
1.4 million, representing 31.6% of Canadian arrivals to
Europe.
Canadian tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 0.3 million, representing 7.5% of Canadian arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Canadian market was 9.9% in
2013, a 4.0 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Canadian market was 14.5%
in 2013, a 2.9 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Canadian market was 14.1%
in 2013, a 2.5 percentage point increase from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Canadian market was
4.0% in 2013, a 0.5 percentage point increase from 2003.
Long haul outbound from Canada is forecast to grow 3.4%
per year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase 19.2%
through 2018, to 1.3 million. Northern Europe's share of the
Canadian market is forecast to rise to 10.0% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase 5.2%
through 2018, to 1.7 million. Western Europe's share of the
Canadian market is forecast to fall to 12.9% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 6.3%
through 2018, to 1.5 million. Southern Europe's share of the
Canadian market is forecast to fall to 12.7% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to increase
19.5% through 2018, to .4 million. Central/Eastern Europe's
share of the Canadian market is forecast to fall to 4.0% in
2018.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Canada long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Canadian marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
18 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Mexico
17.1 million tourists traveled from Mexico in 2013. Of these,
14.9 million traveled within North America, while 2.2 million
(13.0%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Mexican tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 1.2 million,
representing 55.7% of the Mexican long haul outbound
market.
Mexican tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
116,000, representing 9.3% of Mexican arrivals to Europe.
Mexican tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
643,000, representing 51.7% of Mexican arrivals to Europe.
Mexican tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
373,000, representing 30.0% of Mexican arrivals to Europe.
Mexican tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 112,000, representing 9.0% of Mexican arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Mexican market was 5.2% in
2013, a 1.0 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Mexican market was 28.8% in
2013, a 10.8 percentage point increase from 2002.
Southern Europe's share of the Mexican market was 17.6% in
2013, a 5.4 percentage point decrease from 2002.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Mexican market was
7.6% in 2013, a 2.9 percentage point increase from 2002.
Long haul outbound from Mexico is forecast to grow 5.9% per
year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase 43.5%
through 2018, to 166,000. Northern Europe's share of the
Mexican market is forecast to rise to 5.6% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase 12.9%
through 2018, to 726,000. Western Europe's share of the
Mexican market is forecast to fall to 24.5% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 10.5%
through 2018, to 412,000. Southern Europe's share of the
Mexican market is forecast to fall to 14.7% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to increase
41.8% through 2018, to 158,000. Central/Eastern Europe's
share of the Mexican market is forecast to rise to 7.6% in
2018.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mexico long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Mexican marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside North America
Source: Tourism Economics
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 19
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Argentina
7.4 million tourists traveled from Argentina in 2013. Of
these, 5.2 million traveled within South America, while 2.2
million (30.3%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Argentinian tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 0.8
million, representing 36.8% of the Argentinian long haul
outbound market.
Argentinian tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013
totaled 130,000, representing 15.8% of Argentinian arrivals
to Europe.
Argentinian tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013
totaled 46,000, representing 5.6% of Argentinian arrivals to
Europe.
Argentinian tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013
totaled 557,000, representing 67.6% of Argentinian arrivals
to Europe.
Argentinian tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in
2013 totaled 91,000, representing 11.0% of Argentinian
arrivals to Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Argentinian market was
5.8% in 2013, a 0.9 percentage point increase from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Argentinian market was
2.1% in 2013, a 1.1 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Argentinian market was
26.4% in 2013, a 15.9 percentage point decrease from
2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Argentinian market
was 4.4% in 2013, a 2.2 percentage point decrease from
2003.
Long haul outbound from Argentina is forecast to grow
5.8% per year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase
53.7% through 2018, to 201,000. Northern Europe's share
of the Argentinian market is forecast to rise to 6.7% in
2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase
48.1% through 2018, to 68,000. Western Europe's share
of the Argentinian market is forecast to rise to 2.3% in
2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase
34.9% through 2018, to 752,000. Southern Europe's share
of the Argentinian market is forecast to rise to 27.0% in
2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to
increase 66.3% through 2018, to 151,000. Central/Eastern
Europe's share of the Argentinian market is forecast to rise
to 5.6% in 2018.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Argentina long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Argentinean market
Northern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South America
Source: Tourism Economics
20 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Brazil
9.4 million tourists traveled from Brazil in 2013. Of these,
2.7 million traveled within South America, while 6.8 million
(71.7%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Brazilian tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 3.5
million, representing 51.4% of the Brazilian long haul
outbound market.
Brazilian tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
285,000, representing 8.2% of Brazilian arrivals to Europe.
Brazilian tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
1,596,000, representing 46.0% of Brazilian arrivals to
Europe.
Brazilian tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
1,278,000, representing 36.8% of Brazilian arrivals to
Europe.
Brazilian tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 313,000, representing 9.0% of Brazilian arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Brazilian market was 4.2%
in 2013, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Brazilian market was 23.6%
in 2013, a 0.6 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Brazilian market was
19.8% in 2013, a 6.9 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Brazilian market was
6.4% in 2013, a 2.5 percentage point increase from 2003.
Long haul outbound from Brazil is forecast to grow 7.7%
per year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase
56.1% through 2018, to 444,000. Northern Europe's share
of the Brazilian market is forecast to rise to 4.5% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase 16.6%
through 2018, to 1,860,000. Western Europe's share of the
Brazilian market is forecast to fall to 19.0% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 0.5%
through 2018, to 1,285,000. Southern Europe's share of the
Brazilian market is forecast to fall to 13.7% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to
increase 39.8% through 2018, to 437,000. Central/Eastern
Europe's share of the Brazilian market is forecast to fall to
5.8% in 2018.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Brazil long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South America
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Brazilian marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South America
Source: Tourism Economics
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 21
© European Travel Commission November 2013
India
11.3 million tourists traveled from India in 2013. Of these,
0.5 million traveled within South Asia, while 10.7 million
(95.2%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Indian tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 1.5
million, representing 14.4% of the Indian long haul
outbound market.
Indian tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
341,000, representing 22.0% of Indian arrivals to Europe.
Indian tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
602,000, representing 38.8% of Indian arrivals to Europe.
Indian tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
260,000, representing 16.8% of Indian arrivals to Europe.
Indian tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 347,000, representing 22.4% of Indian arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Indian market was 3.2%
in 2013, a 2.5 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Indian market was 5.6% in
2013, a 1.2 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Indian market was 2.5%
in 2013, a 0.6 percentage point increase from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Indian market was
3.5% in 2013, a 1.9 percentage point decrease from
2003.
Long haul outbound from India is forecast to grow 9.6%
per year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase
28.5% through 2018, to 439,000. Northern Europe's
share of the Indian market is forecast to fall to 2.6% in
2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase
69.7% through 2018, to 1,021,000. Western Europe's
share of the Indian market is forecast to rise to 6.0% in
2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase
62.2% through 2018, to 421,000. Southern Europe's
share of the Indian market is forecast to rise to 2.6% in
2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to
increase 83.5% through 2018, to 636,000.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Indian market is
forecast to rise to 4.1% in 2018.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
India long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Asia
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Indian marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside South Asia
Source: Tourism Economics
22 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
China
56.7 million tourists traveled from China in 2013. Of these,
33.1 million traveled within Northeast Asia, while 23.7 million
(41.7%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Chinese tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 8.0 million,
representing 33.8% of the Chinese long haul outbound
market.
Chinese tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
599,000, representing 7.5% of Chinese arrivals to Europe.
Chinese tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
4,213,000, representing 52.8% of Chinese arrivals to Europe.
Chinese tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
578,000, representing 7.2% of Chinese arrivals to Europe.
Chinese tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 2,596,000, representing 32.5% of Chinese arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Chinese market was 2.5% in
2013, a 0.3 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Chinese market was 17.8% in
2013, a 3.0 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Chinese market was 2.5% in
2013, a 1.4 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Chinese market was
13.8% in 2013, a 9.9 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Long haul outbound from China is forecast to grow 10.0% per
year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase 91.4%
through 2018, to 1,146,000. Northern Europe's share of the
Chinese market is forecast to rise to 3.0% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase 72.3%
through 2018, to 7,260,000. Western Europe's share of the
Chinese market is forecast to rise to 19.0% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 89.3%
through 2018, to 1,095,000. Southern Europe's share of the
Chinese market is forecast to rise to 3.0% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to increase
68.3% through 2018, to 4,369,000. Central/Eastern Europe's
share of the Chinese market is forecast to rise to 14.7% in
2018.
0
5
10
15
20
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast Asia
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Chinese marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast Asia
Source: Tourism Economics
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 23
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Japan
24.3 million tourists traveled from Japan in 2013. Of these, 9.4
million traveled within Northeast Asia, while 15.0 million
(61.5%) traveled to long haul destinations.
Japanese tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 4.8 million,
representing 32.0% of the Japanese long haul outbound
market.
Japanese tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
519,000, representing 10.8% of Japanese arrivals to Europe.
Japanese tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
2,326,000, representing 48.6% of Japanese arrivals to
Europe.
Japanese tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
1,246,000, representing 26.0% of Japanese arrivals to
Europe.
Japanese tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 694,000, representing 14.5% of Japanese arrivals to
Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Japanese market was 3.5% in
2013, a 1.4 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Japanese market was 15.6%
in 2013, a 2.0 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Japanese market was 8.6% in
2013, a 1.1 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Japanese market was
5.7% in 2013, a 1.2 percentage point increase from 2003.
Long haul outbound from Japan is forecast to grow 3.0% per
year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase 7.9%
through 2018, to 560,000. Northern Europe's share of the
Japanese market is forecast to rise to 3.2% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase 9.8%
through 2018, to 2,553,000. Western Europe's share of the
Japanese market is forecast to rise to 14.7% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 9.6%
through 2018, to 1,367,000. Southern Europe's share of the
Japanese market is forecast to rise to 8.2% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to increase
17.3% through 2018, to 814,000. Central/Eastern Europe's
share of the Japanese market is forecast to rise to 5.7% in
2018.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Japan long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast Asia
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Europe's share of Japanese marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside Northeast Asia
Source: Tourism Economics
24 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
United Arab Emirates
3.3 million tourists traveled from the UAE in 2013. Of these, 2.0
million traveled within the Middle East, while 1.3 million (38.8%)
traveled to long haul destinations.
Emirati tourist arrivals to Europe in 2013 totaled 0.7 million,
representing 55.9% of the Emirati long haul outbound market.
Emirati tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
259,000, representing 35.8% of Emirati arrivals to Europe.
Emirati tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
315,000, representing 43.6% of Emirati arrivals to Europe.
Emirati tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
135,000, representing 18.7% of Emirati arrivals to Europe.
Emirati tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013 totaled
14,000, representing 2.0% of Emirati arrivals to Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Emirati market was 20.0% in
2013, a 12.0 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Emirati market was 24.4% in
2013, a 11.7 percentage point increase from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Emirati market was 13.1% in
2013, a 1.2 percentage point increase from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Emirati market was 2.0%
in 2013, a 1.3 percentage point decrease from 2003.
Long haul outbound from the UAE is forecast to grow 1.8% per
year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to decrease -2.8%
through 2018, to 252,000. Northern Europe's share of the
Emirati market is forecast to rise to 17.8% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to decrease -7.3%
through 2018, to 292,000. Western Europe's share of the
Emirati market is forecast to rise to 20.7% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 17.8%
through 2018, to 159,000. Southern Europe's share of the
Emirati market is forecast to rise to 13.7% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to increase
23.5% through 2018, to 18,000. Central/Eastern Europe's share
of the Emirati market is forecast to rise to 2.0% in 2018.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UAE long haul* outbound travel Rest of Long Haul
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside the Middle East
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
201
1
2012
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Emirati marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of long haul* market
*Long haul defined as tourist arrivals to destinations outside the Middle East
Source: Tourism Economics
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 25
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Russia
41.1 million tourists traveled from Russia in 2013. Of these,
31.6 million (77.0%) traveled within Europe, while 9.4 million
traveled to destinations outside Europe.
Russian tourist arrivals to Northern Europe in 2013 totaled
1.8 million, representing 5.6% of Russian arrivals to Europe.
Russian tourist arrivals to Western Europe in 2013 totaled
2.4 million, representing 7.7% of Russian arrivals to Europe.
Russian tourist arrivals to Southern Europe in 2013 totaled
8.6 million, representing 27.1% of Russian arrivals to
Europe.
Russian tourist arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe in 2013
totaled 18.8 million, representing 59.6% of Russian arrivals
to Europe.
Northern Europe's share of the Russian market was 4.3% in
2013, a 0.4 percentage point increase from 2003.
Western Europe's share of the Russian market was 6.0% in
2013, a 1.0 percentage point increase from 2003.
Southern Europe's share of the Russian market was 21.8%
in 2013, a 3.1 percentage point increase from 2003.
Central/Eastern Europe's share of the Russian market was
51.2% in 2013, a 11.6 percentage point decrease from
2003.
International outbound travel from Russia is forecast to grow
6.8% per year on average to 2018.
Arrivals to Northern Europe are expected to increase 25.4%
through 2018, to 2.2 million. Northern Europe's share of the
Russian market is forecast to fall to 3.9% in 2018.
Arrivals to Western Europe are expected to increase 28.3%
through 2018, to 3.1 million. Western Europe's share of the
Russian market is forecast to fall to 5.5% in 2018.
Arrivals to Southern Europe are expected to increase 50.9%
through 2018, to 12.9 million. Southern Europe's share of
the Russian market is forecast to rise to 23.5% in 2018.
Arrivals to Central/Eastern Europe are expected to increase
27.5% through 2018, to 24.0 million. Central/Eastern
Europe's share of the Russian market is forecast to fall to
46.4% in 2018.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Russia outbound travel Rest of World
Central/Eastern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Northern Europe
Million
*Outbound travel defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations
Source: Tourism Economics
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
200
3
2004
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
2013
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
Europe's share of Russian marketNorthern Europe
Western Europe
Southern Europe
Central/Eastern Europe
% of outbound* market
*Outbound market defined as tourist arrivals to all destinations
Source: Tourism Economics
26 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Global Economy: 2013 outlook is brighter than 2012 as risks recede
Near-term US growth prospects have been damaged
by the two-week government shutdown and dispute
over raising the debt ceiling in the first half of October.
We estimate that Q4 US GDP growth (on an
annualised basis) will have been cut by up to 0.5%
points. We now forecast economic growth of 1.6% for
the US in 2013 and 2.9% next year.
Although a deal has now been struck to end the
shutdown and raise the debt ceiling, it is only temporary
and risks related to the US fiscal situation could
resurface next spring. The worst-case scenario could
involve the US needing to make very sharp expenditure
cuts, damaging the recovery.
Aside from the recent events in the US, the broad
pattern over recent months has been for generally
encouraging growth indications from the major
advanced economies, but disappointment from the
emerging economies.
US data releases before the government shutdown
were mixed, but key survey indicators such as the
Institute of Supply Managers (ISM) surveys were
buoyant suggesting accelerating growth into 2014.
Meanwhile, Japan and the UK have posted impressive
growth performances in recent months resulting in
significant upgrades to our growth forecasts for both
countries. UK growth is now expected to reach 2.2%
next year while Japan expands 1.9% this year and
1.6% next.
Eurozone indicators have also continued to point to
gradual improvement, although growth performance
there remains patchy and significant challenges remain
that will restrain growth to 1% in 2014.
By contrast, the performance of key emerging markets
has been disappointing and our GDP forecasts for
China, India and Brazil have all been downgraded
significantly. China is now seen growing 7.4% this year
and 7.1% next (from 8.2% and 8.5% six months ago),
India at 4.1% this year and 4.5% next (from 5.2% and
7.2%) and Brazil at 2.6% this year and 1.9% next (from
2.9% and 4.4%).
Moreover, downside risks to growth remain in the
emerging countries. In particular, some countries have
been forced to raise interest rates to curb inflationary
pressures caused by rapidly falling currencies, even
though economic growth has been slowing. Recent
Chinese data, however, has been more encouraging.
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
G3: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' IndexIndex
Source : PMI/Markit
EurozoneUS
Japan
Values above 50 indicate expansion in activity; values below 50 indicate contraction
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UKUS
EurozoneJapan
World: Corporate holdings of broad money% year
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 27
© European Travel Commission November 2013
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Real GDP
North America
United States 2.8 1.6 2.9 3.2 3.1 3.1 Canada 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.8 2.9 2.7
Europe
Eurozone -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.7 Germany 0.9 0.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 France 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 Italy -2.4 -1.9 0.1 1.2 1.5 1.4 UK 0.1 1.4 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.8 EU27 -0.3 -0.1 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0
Asia
Japan 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.8 1.1 China 7.7 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.4 India 5.1 4.1 4.5 5.9 6.3 6.6
G7 1.7 1.2 2.2 2.4 2.3 2.4 World 2.4 2.1 2.9 3.2 3.3 3.4 World 2005 PPPs 3.1 2.8 3.5 4.0 4.1 4.1 World trade 2.3 2.5 5.1 6.1 6.1 6.0Inflation (CPI)
North America United States 2.1 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 Canada 1.5 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.2
Europe
Eurozone 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.5 Germany 2.0 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 France 2.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 Italy 3.0 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.3 UK 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 EU27 2.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 Asia Japan 0.0 0.3 2.0 1.3 1.4 0.7 Emerging Asia, excl Japan 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.2 4.7 4.4 China 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 India 9.3 10.7 9.0 8.1 7.3 6.6
World 3.6 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.0Exchange Rates
US$ Effective 73.48 75.96 79.18 83.09 83.76 83.44 $/€ 1.29 1.32 1.27 1.20 1.18 1.18 ¥/$ 79.81 96.83 103.00 112.50 113.13 111.03Commodity Prices
Brent Oil ($/bl) 111.7 107.8 102.6 105.0 107.8 111.5
Summary of International Forecasts
28 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Eurozone Economy
The Eurozone’s resilience was tested again this month with another episode of political
turmoil in Italy. But the region withstood the shock with only brief and very limited
movements in financial markets. Eurozone financial markets have also proved resilient
to concerns about the outcome of the budget negotiations in the US.
This stability confirms the general trend since the beginning of the year when the
Eurozone has seemed able to withstand domestic or external shocks much better than
in 2011 and 2012. This suggests that the economic recovery is well established and that
the ECB remains highly credible as rescuer of last resort.
The data continue to be mixed with ongoing improvement in surveys but output data
pointing to very low growth in Q3. Our forecast is unchanged from last month. We
expect a 0.3% contraction in GDP growth in 2013 as a whole, followed by 1% growth in
2014. This is in line with the just-published forecast by the IMF.
One main source of downside risk relates to uncertainty about available ahead and in
the aftermath of the ECB’s Asset Quality Review The ECB stands ready to offer another
wave of long-term liquidity (LTRO) but it is not clear whether this would be enough to
avoid a credit squeeze.
One source of upside risk relates to the labour market. Unemployment has stabilised in
recent months. We expect some small renewed increases but this could prove too
pessimistic.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Eurozone GDP growth% year
Source : Oxford Economics
Forecast
1997-2007 average
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 29
© European Travel Commission November 2013
UK Economy
After another strong set of data in September, it looks very likely that GDP growth
accelerated once more in 2013 Q3. Historic relationships between the monthly data and
the national accounts point to quarterly GDP growth in the region of 0.8%, which would
be the strongest for three years.
The housing market has been a key factor in the recovery, with both activity and prices
continuing to rebound strongly. It appears that house builders have responded by
ramping up activity, with the housing element of the construction PMI reaching a ten-year
high in September. If this expansion in supply continues then it should keep a lid on
prices and stop a bubble from forming. But if the supply response falters, prices could
quickly spiral upwards. In this context the Government’s decision to bring forward the
launch of the mortgage guarantee element of its Help to Buy scheme looks ill-judged.
There have been encouraging signs that the recovery is starting to broaden out from
housing and the consumer to include companies and exports. Surveys of corporate
sentiment have shown a strong pickup in confidence about profitability and investment
intentions, suggesting that business investment should rebound firmly. Meanwhile the
CBI’s manufacturing survey for September reported its strongest balance for export order
books for two-and-a-half years, reflecting stronger activity in the advanced economies,
including Europe.
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
UK: Purchasing managers surveys% balance*
Source : CIPS/Markit
Construction
activity
Manufacturing
activity
Services business
activity
*value over 50 indicates
rising activity
30 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
US Economy
Congress inaction is once again affecting the US economy. The US government “shut
down” for a little over two weeks starting midnight on September 30, forcing 800,000
“non-essential” federal government workers into furlough (although 350,000
Department of Defense civilian workers returned to work after about a week).
Although a deal has now been struck to end the shutdown and raise the debt ceiling, it
is only temporary and risks related to the US fiscal situation could resurface next
spring. The worst-case scenario could involve the US needing to make very sharp
expenditure cuts, damaging the recovery; stock prices would plunge, and private
sector confidence would collapse.
We estimate that Q4 US GDP growth (on an annualised basis) will have been cut by
up to 0.5% points as a result of the shutdown. We now forecast economic growth of
1.6% for the US in 2013 and 2.9% next year.
US data releases before the government shutdown were mixed, but key survey
indicators such as the ISM surveys were buoyant suggesting accelerating growth into
2014.
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
% quarter annualised
Forecast
Source: Oxford Economics
GDP growth
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 31
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Japanese Economy
Japanese growth indicators remain generally upbeat. Although consumer
spending growth appears to have slowed during Q3, industry continues to be
stimulated by the weaker yen and some upturn in regional demand.
Progress in ending deflation is also being made, with the CPI ex-food and energy
unchanged on the year in August – the strongest reading since November 2008.
The relative strength of the economy has encouraged the authorities to press
ahead with the consumption tax increases planned for Q2 2014 and Q4 2015.
These increases constitute a potentially substantial tightening of fiscal policy, and
have therefore been seen as a risky move by many observers. The planned tax
rises will, other things equal, reduce real household income by around 2%.
However, the authorities are now talking of a temporary fiscal stimulus being
introduced next year to soften the impact of the tax rises on growth.
In addition, monetary policy will continue to very accommodative next year, with
the Bank of Japan balance sheet set to expand by over 10% of GDP. As a result,
we have slightly upgraded our economic growth forecasts; for 2013 GDP is still
expected to rise by 1.9%, but GDP growth is now forecast at 1.6% for 2014, up
from 1.3%.
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Japan: PMIs
PMI index
Source : Markit
Services
Manufacturing
Values above 50 indicate expansion in activity; values below 50 indicate contraction
32 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Emerging Market Economies
Evidence so far available for Q3 suggests some pickup in
Chinese activity in August. Industrial output growth was
firmer at 10.4% on the year and retail sales were robust – up
13.4%. The manufacturing PMIs continued to improve in
September, with the official measure reaching 51.2 and the
services PMI running at 55.4. Our GDP growth forecast for
2013 has been raised to 7.4% (from 7.2%) for 2013, close to
the government target of 7.5%.
We continue to expect 7.1% growth in 2014. In the longer
term, slower credit growth will hold back activity as the pace
of domestic demand reduces. The Chinese authorities have
taken steps to slow lending growth, particularly from non-
banks, as appear willing to accept slower GDP growth as the
price for successfully tackling the credit bubble and
rebalancing the economy away from investment and towards
consumption-driven growth.
Indian financial markets have stabilised somewhat over the
past month. Emergency measures introduced to help support
a plummeting currency are now being eased back as the
rupee has recovered from its lows in August. The new central
bank governor raised the policy interest rate by 25bp to 7.5%
last month, almost immediately after taking office. He
signalled his intention to address India’s persistent inflation
problem, and we expect a further 25bp rise before the end of
the year.
India’s PMI surveys remained weak in September, pointing to
subdued economic conditions. The manufacturing PMI (49.6)
continued to imply contraction while the services PMI
slumped to 44.6 from 47.6, the lowest since 2009. We now
expect growth of 4.5% in 2014, down from 5.7%, as tight
monetary policy will hit activity.
Elsewhere in Asia there has been little change over the past
month. Our GDP growth forecasts across the region have
come down significantly this year and are now quite cautious
– the most recent data have been in line with our
expectations. Domestic economies are generally still
subdued, but there are some indications that exports and
manufacturing activity may be starting to pick up.
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016
% year
GDP
Industrial production,
manufacturing, value added
Source: Oxford Economics
F'cast
China: GDP and industrial production
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
50 = expansion/contraction breakeven point
Source: Markit
China and India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI
China
India
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
%
Source: Haver Analytics
India: Interest rates & inflation
Repo rate
CPI
Total WPI
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 33
© European Travel Commission November 2013
Manufacturing PMIs for September were an improvement
almost across the board on August’s data, and most – with the
notable exceptions of South Korea and India – indicate
expansion. Monthly export data for South Korea are volatile but
the underlying trend is still flat. Employment data have been
improving in recent months, however, an indication that the
services sector at least may be beginning to revive.
In Indonesia the authorities are concerned about the effects of
rising prices on domestic demand. Interest rates were
increased in September to 7.25% in an attempt to address high
inflation, which reached 8.4% in September. Worryingly, real
retail sales growth slipped to 1.1% on the year in August and
consumer confidence also dropped – both reactions to the
sharp rise in fuel prices in July. Our GDP forecasts have been
trimmed to 5.6% for 2013 (from 5.7% last month) and 5.4% for
2014 (from 5.5%).
The September manufacturing PMI for Brazil rose to 49.9, but
the increase was modest and still suggests contracting output.
Retail sales volumes for July rose by 0.6% on the month and
consumer confidence improved in September, but remains
below the levels at the start of the year. Our GDP forecasts this
month are unchanged at 2.6% for 2013 and 1.9% for 2014.
Mexican trade data suggested some upturn in external demand
in August with goods exports up 6% on the year, but further
progress will depend on an early political resolution in the US,
its main export market. Domestic demand (including consumer
spending) was weak in Q2, however, prompting the central
bank to cut interest rates in September to 3.75%. Our GDP
forecast for 2013 has been lowered to 1.2% (from 1.4%),
picking up to 3.9% next year.
Growth indicators in Russia have shown few signs of
improvement in the past month. Industrial production stagnated
in July and August, and the manufacturing PMI for September
remained in the doldrums at 49.4. Consumer trends are
healthier, with retail sales volumes up 3.9% in August, but we
have downgraded our GDP forecasts again and now expect
1.5% growth in 2013 (1.7% last month) and 2.8% in 2014 (from
2.9%). In Poland, by contrast, there are signs of recovery with
the PMI rising to 53.1, exports up 12% y/y in July and
recovering industrial production.
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Index (Dec 31, 2012)
, 2012 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
BRICs: Exchange rates v US$
Brazil
Russia
India
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Source: Oxford Economics
% year
Mexico
Brazil
Americas: GDP growth
US
Forecast
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & Eastern Europe: Industrial output
3 month moving average
Poland
Russia
34 European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013)
© European Travel Commission, November 2013
Glossary of commonly used terms and abbreviations
Airline industry indicators
ASK Available Seat Kilometers. Indicator of airline supply, available seats x kilometers flown
PLF Passenger Load Factor. Indicator of airline capacity. Equal to revenue passenger kilometers
(RPK) / available seat kilometers (ASK)
RPK Revenue Passenger Kilometers. Indicator of airline demand, paying passenger x kilometers
flown
Hotel industry indicators
ADR Average Daily Rate. Indicator of hotel room pricing. Equal to hotel room revenue / rooms sold in a
given period.
Occ Occupancy Rate. Indicator of hotel performance. Equal to the number of hotel rooms sold /
room supply.
RevPAR Revenue per Available Room. Indicator of hotel performance. Equal to hotel room revenue /
rooms available in a given period
Central Banks
BoE Bank of England; MPC Monetary Policy Committee of BoE
BoJ Bank of Japan
ECB European Central Bank
Fed Federal Reserve (US)
RBI Reserve Bank of India
Economic indicators and terms
Broad money: key indicator of money supply and liquidity including currency holdings as well as bank
deposits that can easily be converted to cash
CPI Consumer Price Index. Measure of price inflation for consumer goods
GDP Gross Domestic Product. The value of goods and services produced in a given economy
LCU Local Currency Unit. The national unit of currency of a given country, e.g. pound, euro, etc.
PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index. Indicator of producers’ sentiment and the direction of the economy
PPI Purchase Price Index. Measure of inflation of input prices to producers of goods and services
PPP Purchasing Power Parity. An implicit exchange rate which equalises the price of identical goods
and services in different countries so they can be expressed with a common price.
QE Quantitive Easing. Expansionary monetary policy pursued by Central Banks involving asset
purchases to reduce bond yields and increase liquidity in capital markets.
G7 Group of seven industrialised countries comprising US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada, Japan
European Tourism in 2013: Trends & Prospects (Q3/2013) 35
© European Travel Commission November 2013
ETC Member Organisations
Austria Austrian National Tourist Office (ANTO)
Belgium Flanders: Tourism Flanders
Wallonia: Tourist Office for Wallonia-Brussels
Bulgaria Bulgarian State Agency for Tourism
Croatia Croatian National Tourist Board (CNTB)
Cyprus Cyprus Tourism Organisation (CTO)
Czech Republic CzechTourism
Denmark VisitDenmark
Estonia Estonian Tourist Board - Enterprise Estonia (ETB)
Finland Finnish Tourist Board (MEK)
Germany German National Tourist Board (GNTB)
Greece Greek National Tourism Organisation (GNTO)
Hungary Hungarian Tourism Plc.
Iceland Icelandic Tourist Board
Ireland Fáilte Ireland and Tourism Ireland Ltd.
Italy ENIT – Agenzia Nazionale del Turismo
Latvia Latvian Tourism Development Agency (TAVA)
Lithuania Lithuanian State Department of Tourism
Luxembourg Luxembourg National Tourist Office (ONT)
Malta Malta Tourism Authority (MTA)
Monaco Monaco Government Tourist and Convention Office (DTC)
Montenegro National Tourism Organisation of Montenegro
Norway Innovation Norway
Poland Polish National Tourist Office (PNTO)
Portugal Turismo de Portugal, I.P.
Romania Ministry of Regional Development and Tourism
San Marino State Office for Tourism
Serbia National Tourism Organisation of Serbia (TOS)
Slovakia Slovak Tourist Board
Slovenia SPIRIT Slovenia
Spain Turespaña - Instituto de Turismo de España
Sweden VisitSweden
Switzerland Switzerland Tourism (ST)
Turkey Ministry of Culture and Tourism