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European Energy Transition: Pathway to Net – Zero by 2050
Roghayeh AlGhaithi 1 and Niall Mac Dowell 1,2
1 Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London2 Center for Process Systems Engineering, Imperial College London
1
1990 – 1999 2000 – 2010 2010 – 20201979 • WMO
1988 • UNEP & WMO
19921995
19971998
20032006
20072008
20152017
2019
• UNFCCC• IPCC
• Kyoto Protocol• GRI
• WRI & WBCSD
• WWF• ISO
• MITECO• OCCC
• Paris Agreement
• WWF• Carbon Trust
2009 • UN – partnership for learning on climate change
• UN –COP 25, emphasis to meet Paris Agreement
EU Emission Trading Scheme
2020 Climate and energy
package
2030 framework for climate and energy policies
2019201420092003European Green
Deal
EU
Background1
2
2019• Net-Zero Emissions by
2050
• Interconnected Europe
• 2030 goal: 50% – 55% reduction compared to 1990 levels
Background1
2
Key Question
How will the EU transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050?
Background1
4
2009
• 20% emissions reduction in comparison to 1990
Background1
2020 Climate and Energy Package
6
Current Status
Background1
emissions
7
Background1
Current Status energy mix
8
EU Emission Trading Scheme
2020 Climate and energy
package
2030 framework for climate and energy policies
2019201420092003European Green
Deal
EU
Literature2
0
5
10
15
20
25
% In
crea
se o
f Pub
licat
ions
9
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually• Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered• Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used• Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered• Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered• Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point• Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered• 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)
Literature2
10
Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not
considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not
considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included that EU states are connected to
Literature2
10
Research Plan2
Tool:
• ESO_X
• ESONE
11
Research Plan2
• ESO_X
• ESONE Interconnected
Europe
Country level data check step
ESONE UK
Tool:
16
Research Plan2
• ESONE
Tool:
17
• Interconnection cables • Countries treated as nodes
Sectors:
• Electricity
• Industry
Research Plan2
13
Current Progress & Plans 4
ESO_X:
19
• Input Data:– Updated hub gas
prices – Aggregated
Decommissioning– Grid Constraints – Historical Build
Rates
Current Progress & Plans 4
ESO_X:
20
• CCS and NETs:play an important rolein most countries
• Transition:depends on the resources available
• Challenge:data collection
Research Plan2
• ESO_X
• ESONE Interconnected
Europe
Country level data check step
ESONE UK
Tool:
16
ESONE_UK:
21
• Data Aggregation
ESONE_EU:
• Update Code (ESO_X)
Current Progress & Plans 4
ESONE_UK:
21
•
ESONE_EU:
• Update Code (ESO_X)
• Decommissioning Schedule
• New Technologies
• Transmission losses inclusion with system demand • Self discharge rate for storage technologies
Current Progress & Plans 4
ESONE_UK:
21
• Data disaggregation
ESONE_EU:
•
• System Demand (R-Code)• Fuel Prices • Imported Electricity Prices
(R-Code)• System Inertia • Unit Size • Build Rate • Transmission Losses
Current Progress & Plans 4
ESONE:
21
• Case Study:Northern Sea and
Baltic Sea countries
Current Progress & Plans 4
16
• Observation:– More CCS and NETs
– NL burns gas and UK offsets
cheap NG prices in NL
Carbon Target
S. InertiaNational level
Current Progress & Plans 4
16
Current Progress & Plans 4
ESONE_EUpy: output sample
• Imported Electricity • Carbon Intensity
In Summary5
• European Green Deal: net-zero by 2050 Path needs to be identified
• It is necessary to address literature gaps
• Fuel prices play a role in the introduction of CCS and NETs
• Addressing these gaps will aid in properly answering the question:How the EU should transition towards net-zero by 2050
16
Next5
16
• Add the rest of EU member states
• Introduce national level policies
• Examine multi-objective optimization