12/5/2015 ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/politicsdystopiareduxericomatiastavares?trk=mpreadercard 1/34

ThePoliticsofDystopiaReduxNov7,2015 386views 3Likes 3Comments

Dystopia:acommunityorsocietythatisundesirableorfrightening.

NourielRoubinirecentlypennedanarticletitledEuropesPoliticsof

Dystopia,citingtheriseofnationalisticmovementsacrossEuropeasa

harbingerofterriblethingstocome.ItseemsthattherenownedDr.Doom

oneofthefeweconomiststohaveanticipatedthe2008financialcrisisis

backinthelimelightwithsomemoredirewarnings.

EricoMatiasTavaresSinclair&Co. Editpost Viewstats

ThePoliticsofDystopiaReduxEricoMatiasTavares

U.S.AppealsCourtHearsChallengetoNetNeutralityRulesventurebeat.com

YahooBoard,StickingbyMayer,toDecideonSpinoffbyEndofWeekendrecode.net

KnowwhatsnotgreatforChipotleburritosales?E.coli.qz.com

StarbucksKnowsMoreaboutYouThanYouDoStephanie(Annie)Andrews

Pulse Publishapost

Home Profile Connections Jobs Interests

Advanced

107 29

Searchforpeople,jobs,companies,andmore...

12/5/2015 ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/politicsdystopiareduxericomatiastavares?trk=mpreadercard 2/34

Ah,butthistimeheslate.Incaseyouhavebeenhibernating,theEuropean

Union(EU)isalreadyinacompletestateofdisarray.Everywhereyoulook

economy,politics,security,society,demographicsthereareveryserious

problemswithnocrediblesolutioninsight.

ThisdoesnotbodewellforthefutureoftheEU,startingwiththosewhowill

belivinginit.

Outofthetop10OECDcountrieswiththehighestyouthunemploymentrate,

8areEUmemberstates,eachwithhighdoubledigitfigures.Politiciansmight

stillblametheEurozonefinancialcrisisforthisdiresituation,butthisis

nothingnew:theeconomicgrowthratesofmemberstateshavebeenverypoor

foroveradecadenow.ThefactisthattheEUhasconsistentlyfailedto

promotepoliciesthatcanprovidedecentemploymentopportunitiestoits

youngestcitizens.

Thatfirststepinthejobladderishugelyimportantforthefutureprospectsof

anygeneration.Thisoneisparticularlyimportantsincetheircontributionis

badlyneededtopayfortheirelderswelfare,aswellasallthefiscallargesseto

stimulatetheeconomyfacilitatedbytheECBsmonetizationof

unprecedentedlevelsofdebt.Someofthatstimulusfounditswayintothe

housingmarket.Goodfortheeconomyyousay,butterribleifyouneedtofind

cheaphousingtostartalife.

Oneconsequenceforthisgenerationiseasytopredict:nojob+expensive

housing=putoffstartingafamily.

Europesdemographicsisacomplicatedissue,butthecurrentsituationis

alarming.LessbabiesmeanslesspeopletopayforEuropesgenerouswelfare

andretirementsystems.Insteadofaddressingtheseproblemsheadon,EU

Dowendsup370onstrongjobsreportwww.usatoday.com

SanBernardinoCoverageShowsHowShatteredAmerica'sJournalismMarketIsClarissaBuch

ForclimateoptimismlooktourbaninnovationBruceKatz

12/5/2015 ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/politicsdystopiareduxericomatiastavares?trk=mpreadercard 3/34

politiciansprefertoletthemfester.Populismtrumpseverything.Afterbeing

electedPresidentofFrance,FranoisHollandeevenloweredtheretirement

age!

Europeansaresodesperatefornewbloodthattheywilltakeinvirtually

anybody,showeringthemwithsocialbenefitswhiledemandinglittle

integrationintotheirsocietiesinreturn.Theresultisgrowingpocketsof

alienatedminorities,portrayingadisintegratingsocialfabricespeciallyinthe

richestmemberstates.Swedenisaninterestingcasestudyinthisregard.For

decadesithasbeenthemostwelcomingcountryintheworldforrefugees,but

thefailuretoproperlyintegratethemisevidentinrampantcrimeand

decliningsocialperformancestatistics.

SwedenalsoshowcasesthecurrentvigoroftheEUsdiplomaticrelationsor

lackthereof.Earlierthisyear,SwedishforeignministerMargotWallstrom

daredtocriticizeSaudiArabiaforitsappallinghumanrightsrecord.A

sensibleandcourageouspositionyoumightsay,butonewhichgotherinto

hotwaterwithherownpeersbackhome,nodoubtreflectingpressurefrom

theSaudis.EventheSwedishking,largelyjustapoliticalfigurehead,chastised

herforsuchconduct.ItturnsoutthatonebrightspotofEuropeanindustryis

theburgeoningarmssalestosuchrepressiveregimes(perhapsbecausetheres

noneedtofakeemissions?).Thattheymightactuallyendupinthehandsof

extremistsisofnoconcern.

AndnowtheEUisfacingyetanothergiganticcrisis,unabletostoptheflowof

millionsofmigrantspouringin.Therehadbeenplentyofforewarningthat

somethingbigwasbrewing,evenbyEuropeslaxistimmigrationstandards.

ButonceagainEUleaderswerecaughttotallyonthebackfoot.The

responsewascompletelydisjointedasaresult,creatingevenmorediscord

amongmemberstates.

12/5/2015 ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/politicsdystopiareduxericomatiastavares?trk=mpreadercard 4/34

Witnessingthissituation,ChancellorAngelaMerkelpubliclyannouncedafew

monthsagothatGermanywouldtakethemallin.Whetherthiswastopolish

herimageaftertheeconomicdisasterthathergovernmentimposedonthe

Greeks,reversetheageingdemographicsathomeorjustatonementforher

country'spast,wecan'tsay.Whatwedoknowisthatestimatesofthenumber

ofmigrantsintoGermanythisyearalonequicklysnowballedfrom400,000to

800,000to1.5million.Thelatestreportsuggeststhat14millioncouldsettle

betweennowand2020,inwhichcaseGermansocietywillbeirreversibly

impacted,perhapsevensoonerthanthat.

Accordingtoofficialstatistics,only1in5migrantsarrivinginGermanyin

2015areactuallyfromSyria.Socontrarytopopularbeliefthemajorityof

migrantsarenotrefugeesrather,theyareyoungmenseekingabetterlife.

Andwhywouldn'ttheycome,whenMerkelisdolingoutherfellowtaxpayers'

money?Whethertheywillfindajobisadifferentmatter,astheforeign

workerunemploymentrateisalreadymuchhigherthanthatofthenatives.

ThecostforGermanytodealwithallofthisisenormous,withestimates

suggestingthatoverthenexttwentyyearsitcouldeasilyrivalthealso

enormousreunificationcostwithEastGermany.Anditsthechildless

Germanswhowillfootthebill.

Facingcriticismanddivisivetensionsseldomseenathome,Merkelhadtoact.

FirstshetriedtospreadthesemigrantsalloverEurope,claimingthatthiswas

thefairthingtodo.Severalcountriesrefused.ThenshewenttoTurkeyto

negotiateadealtostoptheinfluxatthesource.Sensingweaknessandinno

moodtodealwithEurope'smigrationproblems,PresidentErdoganpromptly

demandedaheftysumofcashtothinkaboutitandafasttracktojointheEU

(eventhenewIslamistgovernmentinLibyaisnowthreateningtoflood

Europewithmigrants,sothiscrisishasbecomeagreatwaytoholdtheEU

12/5/2015 ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/politicsdystopiareduxericomatiastavares?trk=mpreadercard 5/34

hostagethankstotheEUitself).

ThelatestplanistoprovidewelfarebenefitsonlytoSyrianrefugees,speedup

processingtimesandtightensomebordercontrolshereandthere.Whattodo

withthehundredsofthousandsofothermigrantswithweakcaseswasnot

disclosed.Wespeculatethattheywillnotreturnhomeafteralltheywent

through,andassuchmightbecondemnedtoalifeinlimbo.Thispussyfooting

willalsonotstopthemillionsofothersalreadyontheirway.

Thesecurityrisksarestaggering.Ratherthanprotectingitsborders,allowing

Germanytoeventuallyregaincontrolofthesituationandprovideadequate

caretothosewhoarealreadythere,Merkelpreferstoriskthesocialfabricand

thesafetyofherfellowcitizens.Thinkaboutwhatamillionplusof

unemployedandalienatedyoungmencandoroamingaroundthecountry.

Andwhycantshedoit?Becauseshefearsthosesamepoliticsofdystopia

proposedbyRoubini.Eachmemberstatereinstatingitsbordersisan

intolerablestepbackinherquesttoabolishtheirnationalidentities.Inher

mindthesolutiontoeveryEUproblemismoreEU,andforsuremuchless

Germany,France,UKandwhomeverelse.

Perhapsthiscouldmakesenseifmemberstatenationalismwasreplacedbya

powerfulnewsenseofEuropeanidentity.Butwhowantstoembracethe

basketcasethattheEUhasbecome?Withsomeoftheleastcharismaticworld

leaderstoboot?Evenitsowncurrencyisflawed,promotingdeepstructural

imbalancesamongmemberstates.[evenitsowncurrencyisflawed!!!]

Worse,gettingridofnationalismmakestheEUvulnerabletobeingtakenover

byotherideologies.PerhapsthemostmenacingtoEuroperightnowistherise

ofpoliticalIslam.AnyIslamophobewilltellyouthatthedemographicsareon

12/5/2015 ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/politicsdystopiareduxericomatiastavares?trk=mpreadercard 6/34

WrittenbyEricoMatiasTavares

3comments

theirside,especiallyonceallthesenewmigrantssettlein.Itwouldbeironic

thatthemostliberalcontinentontheplanetmightendupadoptingtheleast

liberalreligioninthecomingdecades.

Withallofthisunfolding,itisnaturalfortheEUsalliesandtradingpartners

tobeapprehensiveabouttheprospectsofitstayingtogether.TheUShaseven

warnedtheUKofdirecommercialconsequencesifitvotesitselfoutinthe

forthcomingreferendum.Well,forcingsomeonetostayagainsttheir

democraticwillisnotagreatsolutioneither.Notthatthevoiceofthepeople

acrossmemberstatesmattersinBrusselsanyway.

Now,wedonthighlightallofthisbecauseweliketoseeEuropeinthe

dumpster.Quitetheopposite.Itpainsustoseewhatisgoingonandthelack

ofleadershiptoconfrontwhataretrulyexistentialthreats.Theworldneedsa

strongEurope.Andforthattohappen,thecurrentpolitical,socialand

economicguidelinesneedtochange.

Roubinidoeshaveapoint.TherearepoliticsofdystopiaatworkinEurope.

Butheputstheblamesquarelyonthewrongside.

TheEUdoesn'tneedanynationaliststodestroyitsfutureprospects.Itsdoing

absolutelyfineonitsown.

Economics, EuropeanUnion, EuropeanPolitics

Like Comment 3likes