EU PV Market Overview · EPIA and its members EPIA represents 95% of the European Photovoltaic Industry and 80% of the Global Photovoltaic Industry T t l T f EPIA b (2007) 14 000

EU PV Market Overview

Eleni DespotouD t S t G lDeputy Secretary General

Policy Director

IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008

EPIA and its members

EPIA represents 95% of the European Photovoltaic Industryand 80% of the Global Photovoltaic Industry

T t l T f EPIA b (2007) 14 000 M€

Silicon feedstock: Wacker, REC, DC Chemical …Equipment and services: Applied Materials, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M+W

Total Turnover of EPIA members (2007): ~14.000 M€

Equipment and services: Applied Materials, Centrotherm, Oerlikon, Stangl, IB Vogt, M W Zander, Meyer Burger, Vesuvius …Wafers and Ingots: Crystalox, Scanwafer, Pillar, Podolsky, PV Silicon …Cells: Q-Cells, BP Solar, Isofoton, Shell Solar, SolarWorld , Sharp, Modules: Aleo, Solon, Schott Solar, Photowatt, Suntech Power, First Solar, Atersa…Systems: Tenesol, Naps Systems, Conergy, Phoenix Solar, …Inverters: KACO, SMA, Sputnik, Sunways, Fronius…Cabling: Multi-contact…


What does EPIA do?1. EPIA advocates its members interests at national

and EU level

2. EPIA is a key information provider about market, legislation and technology developmentslegislation and technology developments

3 EPIA provides an excellent Networking Platform3. EPIA provides an excellent Networking Platformthrough international Conferences, Workshops and working group meetingsworking group meetings


Market historical development ofMarket historical development of cumulative PV installed capacity


*estimated values

Future outlook of the PV marketGlobal cumulative PV capacity


Historical market development by regionsHistorical market development by regions

2500

3000

W

1500

2000

owth

in M

W Ø 40 % growth per year

500

1000

1500

Mar

ket g

ro

0

500

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting

JAP EU USA ROW


ref: European Photovoltaic Industries Association (EPIA) & Navigant Consulting

Future outlook of the PV marketutu e out oo o t e a etRegional distribution of global PV markets

40% Annual growth


Future outlook of the PV marketutu e out oo o t e a etPlanned Production Capacity


Source: JRC, European Commission, Valencia, Sept 2008

Future outlook of the PV marketSegmentation of Market by Technology

80%

90%

100%

60%

70%

80%

30%

40%

50% New concepts

Thin Films

10%

20%

30%C-Si

0%2005 2008 2010 2015 2020

2007


National Policy situation:National Policy situation: Support Programs for PV

Feed-In-Tariff Europe:

• Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark• Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxemburg, Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland UKSwitzerland, UK

ROW:• Australia, South Korea, India, Canada, Israel, Malaysia …

Other support programs• US (Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC), Renewable Portfolio

Standards (RPS) Purchase Power Agreements (PPA)Standards (RPS), Purchase Power Agreements (PPA), • Investment reduction: Japan, Malta, Finland, Poland , Sweden, …


Different world PV market projections until 2010

MW

1400016000

EPIA (Pessimistic Scenario, XmasWorkshop, Dec. 2007)

EPIA (Policy driven Estimate, XmasWorkshop Dec 2007)

100001200014000 Workshop, Dec. 2007)

LBBW (Marktmodell Version 2.1,Januar 2008))

60008000

10000Navigant (Report NPS-GLOBAL2August 2007 - Decreasedincentives)Navigant (Report NPS-GLOBAL2August 2007 - Conservative)

200040006000 August 2007 Conservative)

Navigant (Report NPS-GLOBAL2August 2007 - Accelerated)

S i (F t P t ti D

02000

2006 2010

Sarasin (Forecast Presentation Dr.Fawer, Sarasin, Nov. 8th, 2007)

Deutsche Bank (Global MarketsResearch, Solar PV, July 2007)


y )Status: March 3, 2007

Success story: GermanySuccess story: Germany


SpainSpain


ItalyItaly


FranceFrance


S NNPVA


Source. NNPVA

Development of the Various MarketpSegments (relative)

90%

100%

Yearly installed PV power (GWp)

1.6 2.3 60 3007

70%

80%

90%

RoW Off-Grid

40%

50%

60%o O G d

RoW On-GridUSA

20%

30%

40% JapanEU

0%

10%

2006 2007 2010 2020 2030


Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

EU Market SituationMarket segments of on-grid PV Systems.

e g: GermanyImage: Sharp

B

IPV

mou

ntin

g

Image: Sharp

1%

p

Ef

fort

of m

residential homes 1-10 kWp multi family houses, public + social buildings, farms, commercial plants

10-1000 kWp

very large commercial > 1 MWp

Image: SchücoImage: Grammer

Roo

f top

40%49%

R

Image: Solarwatt

Image: SolarwattImage: BP

Gro

und

m

ount

ed

10%

IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008 Size of the system

G m Image: GeosolImage: GeosolSource: BSW

EU Market SituationSegmentation by customers of some EU

market, 2007

5,8

8,719,7 13,3

3,4

3

11,3

90%

100%

IPP/solar funds

27 4

12,7

5,8

574,410,1

6,3

49 2

2,53

70%

80%

90% IPP/solar funds

Public customer27,4

1,46,5

29,741,4 49,2

40%

50%

60%

Agricultural Customer

Commercial Customer45,4

8 8

26,336,1 35,6 34

10%

20%

30%Commercial Customer

Private Customer8,8

0%

Germany Spain Italy France Greece


New target by 2020New target by 2020

SET plan (Strategic Energy Technology Plan)

12% of electricity demand by 2020 provided that the i t liti l f k i dappropriate political framework is ensured.

S l i d i i i i (CSP d PV) Solar industry initiative (CSP and PV)


Competitiveness between ElectrictyCompetitiveness between Electricty Generation Cost PV and Electricity Price

Higher price increases mostprobable

Grid parity already reached in Southern regions even more in liberalized


Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates (1999 and 2008)regions … even more in liberalized electricity markets for peak power prices





„Solar architecture is not about fashion,it is about survival“ Sir Norman Fosterit is about survival Sir Norman Foster

IENE workshop, Athens, 12 November 2008TüArena, Sport stadium, Tübingen, Germany Image: Suntechnics, Sunways

Potential of BIPVPotential of BIPV

Module and Cell EfficiencyyTechnology Thin Film Crystalline

Silicon(a-Si) (CdTe) CI(G)S a-Si/ µSi Dye s Mono Multi(a-Si) (CdTe) CI(G)S a-Si/ µSi Dye s.

cellsMono Multi

Cell efficiency 4-7% 8-10% 7-11% 6-8% 2-4%

16-22% 14-16%

13-19% 12-15% Module efficiency e c e cy

Area Needed per KW (for modules)

~ 15 m² ~ 11m² ~ 10m² ~12m² ~7m² ~8m²


National Policy situation: Countries with special Feed-In-Tariff for BIPV

Country Installed Power

Feed-in-tariff(2008)c€/ KWh

Digression Rate

Duration CAP / Target

c€/ KWh

France All 57 No 20 years1500KWh/KWp 1800KWh/Kwp (overseas)

Italy

<3 49

2% in 2009 20 years

Target 2012- 1200MW

Target 2016- 3000MW

< 20 46

>20 44 3000MW>20 44

Switzerland

<10 0,90 (55,7)*

8% yearly25 years

<30 0,75 (46,4)*Switzerland (from 2010)

25 years<100 0,67 (41,2)*

>100 0,62 (38,4)*


* Swiss franc (01/09/2008): 1franc= 0.62 €

National Policy situation: Countries with special Feed-In-Tariff for BAPV

Installed Feed in tariff DigressionCountry Installed Power

Feed-in-tariff(2008) c€/ KWh

Digression Rate Duration CAP / Target

France All32

No 20 years1500KWh/KWp

y42 (overseas) 1800KWh/Kwp (overseas)

Italy

<3 44

2% in 2009 20 years

Target 2012- 1200MW

Target 2016< 20 42

Target 2016- 3000MW>20 40

<30 46,758% yearlyC id

<100 44,48Germany

Corridor20 years No cap

,

<1000 43,99

>1000 43,9910% yearlyCorridor

Spain

<20Max 2MW

34No 25 years

(2009)27 MW

(2010)33 MW

(2011)40 MW

>2032 240 MW 300 MW 360 MW


Max 2MW32 240 MW 300 MW 360 MW

National Policy situation: Some Countries with special Feed In Tariff forSome Countries with special Feed-In-Tariff for

ground base systemsInstalled Feed-in-tariff DigressioCountry Installed Power

Feed in tariff(2008) c€/ KWh

Digression Rate Duration CAP / Target

Italy

<3 40

2% in 2009 20 years

Target 2012- 1200MW < 20 38Italy 2% in 2009 20 years

Target 2016- 3000MW

< 20 38

>20 36

<100 8% yearly

Germany 35,5Corridor

20 years No cap>100 10% yearly

Corridor (M i l d) (I l d )

Greece

<= 100(Mainland)50,28

(Islands) 45,28

No 10 + 10 possible

>100(Mainland)45,82

(Islands) 40,28>100 45,82 ,

Spain<20

Max 10MW32 No 25 years

(2009)233 MW

(2010)207 MW

(2011)162 MW


Documents

EU PV Market Overview · EPIA and its members EPIA represents 95% of the European Photovoltaic Industry and 80% of the Global Photovoltaic Industry T t l T f EPIA b (2007) 14 000