7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

1/84

@P]K_@GB@EKBKD^

Keegunkbgi _gp`}u 77= y Fi~ =?7=

D`gu}nbc |h` dge}k`ekbkdne}`unin`be` kj nblu|}ngi u`e|k}u

nb |h` @P gbl guu`uunbc |h` }ki`kj p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig|nkbu

@ekbkdne gbl

Jnbgbengi Gjgn}u

NUUB 73=0$5=?>

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

2/84

K ee g u nk b g i _ g p ` } u g}` s}n||`b m~ |h` U|gjj kj |h` Ln}`e|k}g|`$C`b`}gi jk} @ekbkdne gbl JnbgbengiGjjgn}u) k} m~ `xp`}|u sk}anbc nb guukeng|nkb sn|h |h`d" \h` _gp`}u g}` nb|`bl`l |k nbe}`gu`gsg}`b`uu kj |h` |`ehbnegi sk}a m`nbc lkb` m~ |h` u|gjj gbl ekz`} g snl` up`e|}d kj umf`e|u" Zn`su`xp}`uu`l lk bk| b`e`uug}ni~ }`ji`e| |h` kjjnengi zn`su kj |h` @}kp`gb Ekddnuunkb" Ekdd`b|u gbl`bwn}n`u uhkil m` gll}`uu`l |k6

@}kp`gb EkddnuunkbLn}`e|k}g|`$C`b`}gi jk} @ekbkdne gbl Jnbgbengi Gjjgn}u_mineg|nkbuM$7? M}uu`iuM`icnd@$dgni6dgni|k6@ejnb$NbjkO`e"`}kpg"`

I`cgi bk|ne`

B`n|h`} |h` @}kp`gb Ekddnuunkb bk} gb~ p`}ukb ge|nbc kb n|u m`hgij dg~ m` h`il }`upkbunmi` jk} |h`u` shneh dg~ m` dgl` kj |h` nbjk}dg|nkb ekb|gnb`l nb |hnu pmineg|nkb) k} jk} gb~ `}}k}u shneh)l`upn|` eg}`ji p}`pg}g|nkb gbl eh`eanbc) dg~ gpp`g}"

\hnu pgp`} `xnu|u nb @bcinuh kbi~ gbl egb m` lksbikgl`l j}kd |h` s`mun|``e"`}kpg"`+`ekbkd~[jnbgbe`+pmineg|nkbu

G c}`g| l`gi kj glln|nkbgi nbjk}dg|nkb nu gzgnigmi` kb |h` Nb|`}b`|" N| egb m` gee`uu`l |h}kch |h`@}kpg u`}z`} (`e"`}kpg"`.

NUMB >38$>=$3>$==>?:$:

lkn6 7?+=3:0+==000

@}kp`gb Pbnkb) =?7=]`p}kle|nkb nu g|hk}nu`l p}kznl`l |h` uk}e` nu geabksi`lc`l"

mailto:Ecfin-Info@ec.europa.eumailto:Ecfin-Info@ec.europa.eumailto:Ecfin-Info@ec.europa.euhttp://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publicationshttp://europa.eu/http://europa.eu/http://europa.eu/http://europa.eu/http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publicationsmailto:Ecfin-Info@ec.europa.eu

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

3/84

@}kp`gb Ekd d nuunkb

Ln}`e|k}g|`$C`b`}gi jk} @ekbkdne gbl Jnbgbengi Gjjgn}u

D`gu}nbc |h` dge}k`ekbkdne }`unin`be` kj

nblu|}ngi u`e|k}u nb | h` @P gbl guu`uunbc |h` }ki`

kj p}kle| d g}a`| }`cig|nkbu

Jgmnk Egbkzg) I`kbk} Ek|nbhk) V`bkb Akb|ki`dnu(@}kp}nud ]`u`g}eh.

@P]K_@GB @EKBKD^ Keegunkbg i _gp`}u 7 7=

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

4/84=

GEABKSI@LC@D@B\U

\h` u|l~ sgu jnbgbe`l m~ |h` @}kp`gb Ekddnuunkb" \h` g|hk}ugeabksi`lc` u`ji ekdd`b|u gbl ucc`u|nkbu m~ u|gjj kj |h` @}kp`gbEkddnuunkb) LC @EJNB) nb pg}|neig} Nugm`i C}nik) Fku`jnbg Dkb|`gclk)Gi`augbl`} ]|aksuan) gbl Ik}l`u Ge`lk) gbl k|h`} pg}|nenpgb|u kj gu`dnbg} h`il nb LC@EJNB nb Dg~ =?77) gu s`ii gu `xe`ii`b| }`u`g}ehguunu|gbe` m~ Ehg}gigdpku Ag}gcngbbganu"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

5/845

Ekb|`b|u

@x`e|nz` Uddg}~ """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" :

7" Nb | }k l e| nk b """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 7?

=" G ]`zn`s k j | h` \h` k} `| negi gb l @dp n}n egi In|` }g| } ` """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 75

="7" @ekbk d ne Glf u|d `b |u gbl Nbu|n| |nk bgi ]`jk }d u """" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " " 75

="=" @ekbk d ne Glf u|d `b| u gbl _}kl e| D g}a`| u ]`jk }d u """" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " 75

="5 " D ge}k `ek bk d ne Gl f u|d `b | u | k Uhk eau""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 70

="< " U`e| k }gi Gl f u|d `b | u | k Uhk eau """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 73

5" U| l ~ D `| hk lk ikc ~ """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 785"7 " @u| gmi nuhnb c Munb `uu E~ei` Eh} k bk ik cn`u """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 78

5"=" Ekb u|} e| nb c g D `gu}` kj U`e|k }gi K|p | Ehgbc`u6 nb|` bun|~ gbl p`} unu|`b e` " "" "" "" "" "" "" "" " =?

5"5 " L`| `} d nb nbc Ekd d k b Uhk eau """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" =7

5"< " U`e| k }g i ]`unin` be` | k Uhk eau """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" ==

5"< "7" \h` @ek bk d `| }ne Up` enjneg| nk b """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" =5

5"< "=" L`ue}n p| nk b kj |h ` Zg} ngm i`u """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" =0

"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" 5

\gmi` 75 6 ]gbl kd @jj` e|u @u|nd g|` u) Xglf gb l ` } k g}`g CL_ uhkeau (U^.) D NC eiguunj neg|nk b" """" " "" " ""

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

7/840

\gmi` 7 6 @u|nd g|` l @xp`bl n| } ` @igu|nen| n`u m~ Ekd d kl n|~ C} k p jk } | h` P U """"" "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " 0:

Inu| kj Jnc}`u

Jnc} ` 76 U`e|k }gi K| p | Ek} }`ig| nkb u s n|h Ekd d kb Uhk eau """" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " "" " ""

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

8/84:

@x`e|nz` Uddg}~

L}nbc |h` pgu| |sk l`egl`u |h`}` hgz` m``b

ndpk}|gb| ehgbc`u nb |h` @}kp`gb Pbnkb

jk i iks nbc |h` igbehnbc kj |h` Unbci` D g}a`| nb

7>>=" \h` nb | }kle| nkb kj |h` `}k nb 7>>>) nb

pg}| ne ig} ) u`gi`l |h` `ekbkd ne bn j neg| nkb p}ke`uu)

gbl e}`g|`l g ig}c`) bn j n`l) e}}`be~ bnkb s hneh

nu bks g a`~ p ig~`} nb |h` nb |`}bg| nkbgi u |gc`"

\h`u` l`z`ikpd`b|u hgz` blkm|`li~ m}kch|

uncbn j negb| m`b`j n |u |k @P D `dm `} U|g| `u gbl

e}`g|`l b`s kppk}|bn | n`u ge}kuu |h` @}kp`gb

Pb nkb "

L} nbc |h`u` |sk l`egl`u) u`z`}gi nbu | n | | nkbgi

ehgbc`u hgz` g iuk |ga`b p ige`" \h` dku| bk|gmi`s`}`) kb |h` kb` hgbl) |h` `u|gmi nuhd`b| kj |h`

@}kp`gb E`b|}g i Mgba gbl) kb |h` k| h`} hgbl) |h`

`bhgbe`l `ekbkdne ekk}lnbg| nkb j }gd`sk}a

igbeh`l nb 7>>3) bl`} | h` uk$egi i`l U|gmn i n |~ g bl

C}ks|h _ge| " \h`u` nbu| n | | nkbgi ehgbc`u s`}`

l} nz`b m~ |h ` `xehgbc` }g| ` e} nunu kj 7>>= s hneh) nb

dgb~ sg~u ) pgz`l |h` sg~ jk } |h` l``p`}

`ekbkdne nb |`c}g| nkb umu`w`b| i~ " \h`

nb | }kle| nkb kj |h` u nbci` e}}`be~ hgu m``b

ekbunl`}`l g dgfk} uee`uu nb @}kp`gb hnu|k}~)

g i |hk ch n | hgu m``b e} n | ne nv`l kb |h` c}kb l |hg | n |

s gu bk| geekdpgb n`l m~ g l``p`} j nuegi bnkb) gblu| }e| }g i }`jk}d u) mk|h l``d`l `uu b| ng i |k g i iks

ekb|} n`u m`| |`} hgbli` gu~dd`|} ne uhkeau ` n |h`}|h}kch | }gbuj`}u k} m~ ndp}kz nbc |h` glfu|d`b|

egpgen |~ kj ekb|} n`u"

Nb }`upkbu`) |h` @}kp`gb Ekddnuunkb igbeh`l

u`z`}gi p}kc}gdu |k `bhgbe` j nuegi ekk}l nbg| nkb

gbl u | } e |}g i }`jk}d u) nb |h` ekb|`x| k j |h` I numkb

Gc`blg7" \h`u` `jjk}|u hgz` kj|`b m``b

bl`}dnb`l m~ igea kj pki n | neg i sn i i gbl bg| nkbgi

pki n | negi ekbunl`}g|nkbu" Shni` n | nu c`b`}gi i~

}`ekcbnv`l |hg| u | }e|}g i }`jk}du g}` b``l`l nb@}kp`) |h`}` nu bk pki n | neg i sn i i |k p}u` |h`d nb

ckkl | nd`u) gbl }`jk}du g}` |~p neg i i~ u |g i i`l" Nb

mgl | nd`u) ekbe`}bu gmk| u | }e|}g i }`jk}du

m`ekd` p}`uu nbc) m| k|h`} p} nk} n | n`u gbl j nuegi

7\h` Inumkb Gc`blg) g iuk abks b gu |h` Inumkb U|} g|`c~k} |h` Inumkb _}ke`uu) sgu gb ge|nkb pigb jk} |h``ekbkd~ k j |h` @}kp`gb Pb nkb gc}``l nb =???) sn |h|h` g nd k j dga nbc |h` @P - |h` dku| ekdp`| n | nz` gbll~bgdne abksi`lc`$mgu`l `ekbkd~ nb |h` sk} il

egpgm i` k j uu|g nbgm i` `ekbkd ne c}ks |h s n |h d k}` gblm`||`} fkmu gbl c}`g|`} ukengi ekh`unkb-) m~ =?7?" N | hgubks m``b }`p ige`l m~ | h` @}kp` =?=? U|}g |`c~ "

ekbu|}g nb|u p}`z`b| ckz`}bd`b|u j }kd |ga nbc

ndpk} |gb | }` jk }d u |`pu"

\h` e}}`b| `ekbkdne e}nunu shneh hgu gjj`e|`l

ekbu nl`}gmi~ mk|h |h` @P gbl |h` `}k vkb` hgu

m}kch| gcgnb |k |h` jk}`j }kb| kj pmi ne l nueuu nkb

|h` nuu` kj u | }e|}g i }`jk}d u" Gi |hkch |h` e} nu nu

hgl u`z`}` ekbu`w`be`u kb |h` @P `ekbkd~) n |u

ndpg e| zg} n`l c}`g| i~ g e}kuu u`e|k}u gbl ekb| } n`u"

\h` e}nunu hgu }`z`gi`l uncbnj negb| ln j j`}`be`u

sn |h nb |h` nblu | } n g i u`e |k } s n |h g bdm`} k j

umu`e|k}u ueh gu g|kdkmn i` gbl |`x| n i`u

`xp`} n`be nbc ig}c ` jg i iu nb k |p| gbl k |h`}u) ueh

gu jkkl gbl m`z`}gc`u) eh`dnegiu gbl

phg}d ge`| neg iu) l nup ig~ nbc udgi i`} ehgbc`u"

\hnu u|l~ `xgdnb`u |h` ehg}ge|`}nu| neu kj u`e|k}gi

e~ei`u nb @P ekb|}n`u gbl nbz`u|ncg|`u |h` }`gukbu

shneh dnch| `xpig nb l n j j`}`be`u nb |h` glfu|d`b|

egpgen |~ kj u`e|k}u gbl ekb|} n`u |k `ekbkdne

uhkeau1 m}kgli~ l`jnb`l gu bjk}`u``b ehgbc`u |k

munb`uu ekbln| nkbu" Nb pg}| neig}) n | `zgig|`u |h`

}k i` p ig~`l m~ nbu| n | | nkbgi jge|k}u gbl p}kle|

dg}a`| }`jk}du nb gee`i`}g| nbc |h nu glfu|d`b|

egpgen |~ " _}kle| dg}a`| }`jk}du g}` nbu| n | | nkbgi

ehgbc`u kj dne}k`ekbkdne (u`e|k}g i . bg|}`

ndp i`d`b|`l |k ndp}kz` |h` jbe | nkb nbc k j p }kle |

dg}a`|u " Nb @}kp` ueh }`jk}du nbe il` g snl`

}gbc` kj d`gu}`u upgbbnbc j }kd |h` e}`g| nkb kj

|h` Unbci` D g}a`| ) |k i nm`}g i nvg| nkb g bl }`cig|k }~

}`jk}du nb b`|sk}a nblu|} n`u) |k }`jk}du nb |h`

mu nb`uu `bz n }kbd`b| ) ekdp`| n | nkb pki ne~ ) gbl

u|g| ` g nl"

\h` i n |`}g|}` hgu lnueuu`l `x|`bunz`i~ |h` }ki`

|hg| nbu | n | | nkbu p ig~ nb `bu} nbc |h` bj`| |`}`l

jbe| nkbnbc kj dg}a`|u gbl |h` }gpnl gbl `j j ne n`b|

glfu|d`b| kj `ekbkdne ge| nz n |~ nb |h` jge` kj `ekbkdne uhkeau" \h` ig||`} nuu` nu pg}| neig}i~

}`i`zgb| nb g e}}`be~ g}`g) unbe` nblnznlgi

ekb|} n`u glfu|d`b|u |k uhkeau g}` ekbu|}g nb`l

m~ |h` u~u|`d kj j nx`l bkd nbgi `xehgbc` }g| `u gbl

m~ |h ` unbci` dk b`|g}~ pki ne~ "

J}kd |h` pk nb | k j z n`s k j |h` kp | ndg i e } }`be~

g}`g i n |`}g|}`) g bdm`} kj ekbln | nkbu }`cig|`

|h` bg|}` kj |h` glfu|d`b| p}ke`uu |k uhkeau"

_}ne` gbl sgc` j i`xnmn i n |~ g}` |~pnegi i~ ekbunl`}`l

e}e ng i nb g i iksnbc ekb|} n`u (gbl u`e|k}u. |k

gmuk}m `x|`}bgi gu~dd`|} ne uhkeau k} ekddkbuhkeau s n |h gb gu~dd `|} ne nd pge| " _}kle| d g}a`|

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

9/843

}`u| } ne | nkbu h nbl`} p} ne` gbl sgc` j i`x nm n i n |~ gbl

p}`z`b| dg}a`|u j }kd }`$glfu| nbc }gpnl i~

jk i iksnbc g uhkea" Nbl``l) p}kle| dg}a`| }`jk}du

|hg| nbe}`gu` ekdp`| n | nkb egb i`gl |k h nch`} p} ne`

gbl sgc` j i`x nm n i n |~ m~) jk} nbu |gbe`) }`le nbc

k i nckpki nu | ne m`hgznk} gdkbc j n }du) |h`}`jk}`

ndp}kz nbc ekb|}~ gbl u`e|k} glfu|d`b|u |kuhkeau" Nb glln | nkb) m~ jge n i n |g | nbc `b|}~ gbl `x n | )

p}kle| dg}a`| }`jk}du g iuk `bu}` g dk}`

`j j ne n`b| }`gi ikeg| nkb kj }`uk}e`u sn |h nb gblge}kuu u`e|k}u gbl dg~ c nz` j n }du c}`g|`}

nbe`b| nz`u |k glkp| dk}` `j j ne n`b| gbl j i`x nm i`

p}kle| nkb |`ehbnw`u" J nbgi i~ ) p}kle| dg}a`|

}`u| } ne | nkbu d g~ i`gl |k d g}a`| u`cd`b| g| nkb)

|hu l`ig~ nbc |h` p}ke`uu kj `ekbkdne nb |`c}g| nkb

s n |h nb |h` @}kp`gb Pb nkb " Dg }a` | u`cd`b|g | nkb

s n |h nb |h ` @P hnbl`}u glfu|d `b| kj }` ig| nz` p} ne`u

gbl h`be` |h` dkz`d`b| kj jge|k}u kj p}kle| nkb

ge}kuu ekb|}n`u) shneh nu e}engi nb |h` jge` kjgu~d d `|} ne glfu|d `b| | k uhkeau"

Igmk} dg}a`| } nc nl n | n`u egb g iuk p}`z`b| b``l`l

gl fu |d`b|u nb g ekddkb dg}a` | g }`g gbl egb

`xpig nb l n j j`}`be`u nb |h` glfu|d`b| egpgen |~ kj ekb|} n`u" Nbl``l) |h`}` nu u | }kbc `dpn} neg i

`z nl`be` kj g e}kuu$ekb|}~ }` ig| nkbuhnp m`|s``b

l n j j`}`be`u nb igmk} dg}a`| nbu | n | | nkbu gbl

l n j j`}`be`u nb igmk} dg }a`| glfu|d `b| "

Shn i` |h` }` ig| nkbuhnp m`|s``b igmk} dg}a`| nbu | n | | nkbu gbl dge}k`ekbkdne glfu|d`b|u hgu

m``b `x|`bunz`i~ lnueuu`l nb |h` i n |`}g|}`) g b`s

i nb` kj }`u`g}eh hgu g iuk | } n`l |k `zgig|` hks

dge}k`ekbkdne glfu|d`b|u g}` gj j`e|`l m~ |h`

l`c}`` kj p}kle| dg}a`| ekdp`| n | nkb" \h`

ekbe iu nkbu |hg| |h nu i n |`}g|}` }`geh g}` wn |`

e i`g}6 ekd p`| n | nz` p}`uu}`u ndp}kz` | h` wgi n |~ kj

glfu|d`b| m`egu` |h`~ jku|`} |h` `j j ne n`b| }`$

g i ikeg| nkb kj }`uk}e`u |hg| |ga`u p ige` |h}kch

`b|}~$gbl `x n | ) gbl m`egu` |h`~ i`gl |k h nch`}

`j j ne n`be~ nb p}kl e| nkb"

\h` }`u`g}eh s` p}`u`b| ekdpi`d`b|u |h nu b`s

mkl~ kj i n |`}g|}` m~ `xgdnbnbc |h` }`u n i n`be` kj

glfu|d`b| |ga nbc p ige` g| u`e|k}g i }g|h`} |hgb

`ekbkd~$s nl` i`z`i " \h` u|l~ g| |`d p|u |k nl`b| n j~

gbl `xpig nb `ekbkdne l n j j`}`be`u nb |h`

glfu|d `b| ge}kuu u`e|k}u gbl ekb| } n`u nb | h` @P)

gbl |k `zg ig |` |h` }k i` |hg | p }kle | dg}a` |

}`cig| nkbu gbl k|h `} nbu| n | | nkbgi ekbu|}g nb|u p ig~

nb `xpignbnbc |h`u` lnj j`}`be`u" \h` gbgi~unu s`

ekble| nu |h` j n }u | k j | h nu |~p` nb |h ` i n |`}g|}` gbl

p}kz nl`u e}e ng i nb jk}dg| nkb jk} pki ne~ l`u ncb

p}pku`u

Munb`uu e~e i` j ie |g| nkbu g}` u |ln`l sn |h nb |h`

|}gln| nkb kj eiguunegi e~ei`u) |hg| nu) m~ gbgi~vnbc

gmuki|` ehgbc`u nb k|p| ) }g|h`} |hgb zg} ng| nkbu

nb k |p | cgpu " \h` d`|hklk ikc~ s ` `dp ik~

gzknlu |h` u` kj j n i |`}u shneh skil bk| g i iks u

|k egp|}` ehgbc`u nb ikbc$|`}d | }`blu) gbl) |hu)

pk|`b|ngi i~ mngu |h` ekbeiunkbu"

Nb |hnu u|l~) }`un i n`be` |k uhkeau nu l`jnb`l unbc

|h` `u| ndg|`l ek}}` ig| nkb m`|s``b u`e|k}g i k|p|

ehgbc`u kz`} munb`uu e~ei` phgu`u gbl ekddkb

uhkeau" S ` ekbunl`} kbi~ ekd d kb l nu|}m gbe`u |k

m`| |`} nuk ig|` l n j j`}`be`u nb |h` glfu|d`b| egpgen |~ kj l n j j`}`b| u`e|k}u " \hnu skil bk| m`

pkuunmi`) jk} `xgdpi`) n j u`e|k}$up`enj ne

nl nku~be}g| ne l nu |}mgbe`u skil m` `dpik~`l"

Ekddkb lnu |}mgbe`u g}` l`j nb`l gu `}k g}`gCL_ uhkeau (m| PU uhkeau g}` giuk ekbunl`}`l nb

u`bun| nz n |~ g bgi~unu." CL_ uhkeau g}` l `jnb`l gu |h `

ehgbc` nb k|p| |hg| egbbk| m` p}`lne |`l u nbc

nb jk}d g| nkb ekb| g nb`l nb e}}`b| gb l pgu| zg i`u kj zg}ngmi`u ueh gu nb|`}`u| }g|`u) dkb`~) e}`ln|)

p} ne`u) nb j ig | nkb) k} p gu| zg i`u kj k|p | n |u`i j "

\h` gbgi~unu kj u`e|k}gi munb`uu e~ei`u }`z`giu

ekbu nl`}gmi` h`|`}kc`b`n |~ gbl nblneg|`u |hg|

k| p| g| |h` u`e|k}g i i`z`i nu d eh i`uu u|gmi` | hgb

gcc}`cg|` k|p| ( |h` bdm`} kj e~e i`u nl`b| n j n`l

g| | h` u`e|k}g i i`z`i nu kb gz`}gc` c}`g| `} |hgb |h`

bdm`} kj e~e i`u |~p neg i i~ nl`b| n j n`l nb gcc}`cg|`lg|g) gbl |h`n } gdpi n |l` m ncc`}. " \hnu }`ui | nu ndpk}|gb| m`egu` dkb`|g}~ pki ne~ l`e nu nkbu g}`

|ga`b u nbc gcc}`cg |` `}k $snl` nb jk }dg| nkb "

\hu) |h`~ ucc`u| |hg| dkb`|g}~ pki ne~ egbbk|

`jj`e|nz`i~ |ga` eg}` kj |h`u` nlnku~be}gun`u1 h`be`|h` ndpk} | gbe` k j u| }e | }g i }` jk }du sh neh g i iks g

udkk|h`} glfu|d`b| g| |h` u`e|k}g i i`z`i " \h`

h`|`}kc`b`n |~ kj u`e|k}g i e~e i`u s` l nuekz`} dg~

m` l` |k |h}`` egu`u6 gu~dd`|}ne uhkeau1

ekddkb uhkeau sn |h gu~dd`|} ne `j j`e|u kb

lnj j`}`b| u`e|k}u k} ekb|}n`u1 k} u`e|k}$up`enj ne

pki ne n`u g| |h` bg| nkbgi k} @P$snl` i`z`i ( jk} `xgd pi`) up`enj ne bg| nkbgi nbl u|}ngi pki ne n`u."

\k `xgdnb` shneh g}` |h` dku| }`u n i n`b| u`e|k}u

gbl |k guu`uu sh`|h`} nbu| n | | nkbgi jge|k}u gbl

p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig| nkbu gj j`e| |h nu }`u n i n`be`)

s` u |l~ |h` ek}}` ig| nkb m`|s``b |h` u`z`} n |~ kj

ekddkb uhkeau sn |h |h` u`e|k}g i e~e i` gdpi n |l`

u nbc l nugcc}`cg|`l nblu|}~ lg|g jk} =7

umu`e|k}u"

S` j n bl |hg | p }kle | dg}a` | }`c ig | nkbu g | |h`

bg| nkbgi i`z`i gj j`e| }`u n i n`be`6 jk} `xgdpi`)

ekb|}~ l n j j`}`be`u sn |h nb nblu|} ng i um$u`e|k}u

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

10/848

gpp`g} |k m` `xp ig nb`l m~ hks jg } p }kle | d g}a` |

}`jk}du hgz` glzgbe`l" \hu) ekb|} n`u shneh

hgz` glzgbe`l dk}` nb |`}du kj p}kle| dg}a`|

}`jk}du) ueh gu L`bdg}a) }gba g| |h` |kp kj |h`

}`un in`be` }gbanbc "

M`unl`u p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig| nkbu) |sk k|h`}

zg} ngmi`u g}` ndpk}|gb| |k `xpig nb }`u n i n`be`6

j nbgbe ng i l`z`ikpd`b| gbl kp`b`uu (g i |hkch |h`

`z nl`be` p}`u`b|`l nu u| }k bc`} jk } j nbg be ng i dg }a`|

l`z`ikpd`b| . " S hn i` n | nu c`b`}gi i~ gee`p|`l |hg |

kp`bb`uu gbl j nbg be ng i l`z`ikpd`b| h`ip |k mkku|

`j j ne n`be~ gbl ekdp`| n | nz`b`uu) |h` b`cg| nz`

guuke ng| nkb m`|s``b |h`u` |sk zg} ngmi`u gbl

}`u n i n`be` d`}`i~ ucc`u|u |hg| dk}` kp`b

ekb|}n`u g}` dk}` `xpku`l |k `x|`}bgi uhkeau" Nb

pg}| ne ig} ) k} gbgi~u nu }`z`giu |hg| ) ukd`

ekb|} n`u shneh g}` glzgbe`l nb |`}du kj p}kle|

d g}a`| }`jk}d u) m| hgz` g ig}c` j nbgbe ng i u~u|`d )

ueh gu |h` B`|h`}igblu) g}` i`uu }`un i n`b|" \h`u`

}`ui |u g}` nb inb` sn | h |h ` j nbl nbcu kj nb |`}bg | nkbgi

munb`uu e~ei` i n |`}g|}`6 e~ei negi j ie|g|nkbu g}`

dk}` `z nl`b| nb ekb|} n`u gbl }`cnkbu |hg| g}`

dk}` kp`b |k | }gl` gbl +k } g }` dk}` j n bgbe ng i i ~ n b |`c}g |`l "

\h` jge| |hg| kp`bb`uu |k | }gl` gbl j nbgbe ng i

l`z`ikpd`b| d g| |` } ) ucc`u| | hg | p }kle | dg}a` |u

}`jk}du m`ekd` `z`b dk}` p}`uu nbc gu ekb|} n`u

kp`b p |k | }gl` nb ckklu) gbl j nbgbe ng i u`}z ne`u"\h` p}ke`uu`u kj `ekbkdne nb |`c}g| nkb gbl

c ikmgi nvg| nkb) shneh m} nbc bl`bngmi` m`b`j n |u |k

|h` @}kp`gb `ekbkd~) du| m` geekdpgbn`l m~

}`jk}du nb p}kle| dg}a`|u shneh egb }`bl`} @P

j n }du dk}` j i`x nm i` gbl ekdp`| n | nz` |k sn |hu|gbl

|h`n } nbe}`gu nbc `xpku}` |k uhkeau |h}kch

j nbgbe ng i gbl | }gl` j iks u"

K} }`ui |u g iuk l`dkbu|}g|` |h` p}`u`be` kj

ndpk }|gb | l n j j`}`be`u s n |h nb nblu|}~ " Jk} `xgdpi`)

|h` eh`dnegiu ) |h` dnb nbc gbl |h` |`x| n i`u um$

u`e|k}u g}` dk}` }`u n i n`b| |hgb) |h` dk|k} z`hne i`um$u`e|k}" Nbl``l) |h` dk|k} z`hnei` um$u`e|k} nu

ekbunu|`b|i~ jkbl |k m` |h` i`gu| }`un i n`b| u`e|k} nb

|h` @P"

Sh`b |h` u`e|k}u g}` c}kp`l nb|k |hku`

dgbjge|} nbc ekbud`}) nbz`u|d`b| ) k}

n b |` }d`l ng |` ckklu) s` j n bl |hg | ekbud`} ckklu

u`e|k}u g}` u ncbn j negb| i~ dk}` }`u n i n`b| ) shn i` nbz`u|d`b| ckklu g}` i`uu }`un i n`b|" \hnu) nb

ekbfbe| nkb sn |h |h` abksb |h`k}`| neg i p}`lne | nkb

gbl `dpn} neg i }`ui | |hg| |h` nbekd` `igu| ne n |~ kj

l`dgbl nu h nch`} jk} nbz`u|d`b| ckklu |hgb jk}

ekbud`} ckklu) ekil ucc`u| |hg| |h` nbekd`

` igu | n e n | ~ k j l`dgbl dg~ m` gb ndpk} |gb |

l`|`}dnbgb| kj u`e|k}g i }`u n i n`be`" \hu) sh`b

l`u ncbnbc pki ne n`u n | dg~ m` e}e ng i |k |ga` nb |k

geekb| bk| kbi~ nbu| n | | nkbgi gbl u | }e|}g i

j`g|}`u m| g iuk k|h`} ehg}ge|`} nu | neu kj l`dgbl

jk} | h` ckklu p}kle`l m~ `geh u`e|k} "

Nb gll n | n kb |k p }kle | dg}a` | }`c ig | nkbu g |

bg| nkbgi i`z`i ) kp`bb`uu |k | }gl`) j nbgbe ng i

l`z`ikpd `b| gbl l `dgbl ` igu| ne n | n`u) g bd m`} kj

k|h`} jge|k}u ekil pk|`b| ng i i~ geekb| jk} |h`

lnj j`}`b e`u nb |h ` }`un i n`be` ge}kuu u`e|k} u" \h`u`

nbe il`) jk} `xgdpi`) d ne}k (u`e|k}g i . $ i`z`i jge|k}u l`|`}dnb nbc |h` l~bgdneu kj l`dgbl) z`}| neg i

i nbagc`u ge}kuu u`e|k}u) ln j j`}`be`u nb u|g|`$gnl

nb|`b un|~ ge}kuu u`e|k }u) gbl u`e|k} gi p}kle| gbl

igmk} d g}a`| }`cig| nkbu" \h`u glln | nkbg i jge|k}u g}` bk| ekbu nl`}`l nb |h nu u |l~) p} ndg} n i~

m`egu` gpp}kp} ng|` lg|gmgu`u p}kz nl nbc

nb jk}dg| nkb gmk| |h`u` u`e|k}g i ehg}ge|`} nu | neu

ge}kuu ekb| }n`u g}` bk| }`gln i~ gzgn igm i`"

Lnjj`}`b e`u nb } `un i n`be` ge}kuu u`e|k}u giuk h `ip u

|k nb |`}p}`| |h` }gba nbc kj ekb|} n`u nb |`}du kj

}`un i n`be`" Unbe` s` j nbl) jk} `xgdpi`) |hg | |h` eg}

nblu|}~ ) k} dk}` c`b`}gi i~ |h` nbz`u|d`b|$ckklu

u`e|k} g }` i`uu }`un i n`b| ) kb` sk il `xp`e| ekb| }n`u

sn |h ig}c` g|kdkmn i` nblu|}~ k} nbz`u|d`b|

ckk lu u`e|k}u | k m` i`uu }`un in`b| |k uhkeau" Nbl``l)

k} `u| ndg|`u ekbj n }d |h nu nb | n | nkb) gbl ndpi~ ) jk} `xgdpi`) |hg| C`}dgb~ gbl J}gbe`) shneh hgz`z`}~ ig}c` g| kd kmn i` u`e|k}u) }gba iks nb | `}du kj

kz`}gi i }`un i n`be`"=

Hks`z`}) |h` }`ui |u nbl neg|`

|hg| ekb|}~$up`enj ne u|}e|}gi ehg}ge|`}nu| neu ueh

gu |h` i`z`i kj p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig| nkbu hgz` g

u | }kbc`} ndpge| kb }`u n i n`be` |hgb u`e|k}g i

ekdpk un | nkb `j j`e|u"

@xgdnbg | nkb k j |h` =??8$?> lksb| }b ekb j n }du |hg| p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig| nkbu p ig~ g u ncbn j negb|

}k i` nb l`|`}dnb nbc |h` nblnz nlgi u`e|k} }`upkbu`

|k |h` uhkea" \h` i`gu| }`un i n`b| u`e|k}u gpp`g} |km` |h` dk|k} z`hne i` gbl mgu ne d`|g iu u`e|k}u " G|

|h` k |h`} `bl k j |h` up`e | }d s` hgz` jkkl gbl

m`z`}gc`u) ekdp|`} gbl ` i`e|} neg i `wnpd`b| " Nb

|`}du kj ekb|} n`u) L`bdg}a ekd`u gcgnb g| |h`

|kp k j |h` }gba nbc ) sh n i` g | |h` mk | |kd s` hgz`

ekb|} n`u shneh hgz` glzgbe`l z`}~ i n | | i` nb

= S` lk u`z`}g i |`u |u |k `bu}` |hg | |h nu gbl |h` k |h`}}`u i |u }`pk} |`l g}` bk | l` |k gb geekb| nbc m ngu " S`j nbl |hg | |h` ek}}` ig | nkbu m` |s``b u`e |k}g i k |p |

ehgbc`u gbl ekddkb `}k g}`g uhkeau g}` bk|u~u |`dg| neg i i~ }` ig |`l |k |h` s` nch | k j |h`u`e |k} + ekb|}~ s n |h nb |h` `}k g}`g "

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

11/84>

p}kle| d g}a`| }`jk }d u) ueh gu M`ic nd ) C}``e`)

gbl Hbcg}~ "

G zg} ngmi` shneh nu ndpk}|gb| nb `xpig nb nbc |h`

i`z`i kj }`un i n`be` nb |h ` igu| }`e`uunkb nu |h ` i`z`i kj

l`m| " S ` j nbl |hg| ekb| } n`u s n |h h nch`} l`m| i`z`iu gpp`g} |k m` i`uu }`un i n`b| |k uhkeau) p}kmgmi~

m`egu` |h`~ hgl i n | | i` }kkd |k ndpi`d`b|

lnue}`|nkbg}~ j nuegi pki ne n`u" Hnch l`m| i`z`iu dg~

g iuk h nbl`} |h` glfu|d`b| p}ke`uu m~ nbe}`gu nbc

be`}|g nb|~ gmk | | h` l n }`e| nkb kj j | }` pki ne n`u"

\h` gbgi~unu kj |h` =??8$?> }`e`uunkb nu giukehgi i`bcnbc nb |h nu }`cg}l u nbe` |h` `xe`p| nkbgi

pmi ne uppk}| d `gu}`u s hneh s`}` |g a`b nb ukd `

ekb|} n`u gbl u`e|k}u ) hgz` e`}|g nb i~ p}`z`b|`l g

d`i |lksb ( jk} `xgdpi` nb |h` mgbanbc u`e|k}. gbl

umu`w`b| i~ dk}` u nv`gmi` glfu|d`b|u nb k|h`}u`e|k}u kj ekb|}n`u" Nb ukd` u`bu`) |h` `xpgbunkb

kj l`m| i`z`iu nb ukd` ekb|} n`u dg~ hgz` h`ip`l

gmuk}m pg}| k j g z`}~ unv`gmi` b`cg| nz` uhkea"

Jk} pki ne~ p}pku`u) n | nu nd pk}| gb| |k unbci` k| | h`

u`e|k}u shneh }gba iks nb |`}d u kj }`un i n`be`) m| g|

|h` ugd` | nd` hgz` dk}` s` nch | n b |h` @P |k |g i

p}kle| nkb" K} nbz`u| ncg| nkb nblneg|`u |hg| |h`

j nz` ig}c`u| u`e|k}u shneh ekbunu|`b|i~ }gba m`iks

|h` @P gz`}gc` nb |`}du kj }`u n i n`be` g}`6 dk|k}

z`hne i`u) dgehnb`}~ gbl `wnpd`b| ) d`|g i

p}kle|u ) mgu ne d`|g iu ) gbl ` i`e|} ne `wnpd`b| "

C`}dgb~) N |g i~ ) J}gbe`) |h` PA gbl Upgnb g}` |kp

p}kle`}u nb |h`u` nblu|}n`u) m| ukd` udgii`}

ekb|} n`u g iuk hgz` ukd` s`nch| nb |h nu u`e|k}u )

i na` M`ic nd nb m gu ne d`| g iu) B`|h`} igblu nb d `|g i

p}kle|u ) Gu|} ng nb ` i`e| } ne `wnpd`b| ) gbl

Us`l`b nb dgeh nb`}~ gbl `w npd`b| gbl dk|k }

z`hnei`u"

K} j nbl nbcu u | }`uu |h` ndpk}|gbe` kj p}unbc

l`e nu nz` gbl | nd`i~ p}kle| dg}a`| }`jk}du nb g i i

ekb|} n`u) m| g iuk nblneg|` |hg| n | nu pg}| ne ig} i~ e}e ng i |k jkeu |h` }`jk}d `j jk} | kb ekb|} n`ushneh g}` dk}` kp`b k} dk}` `xpku`l |k jk}` ncb

uhkeau) l` |k |h`n} ig}c` j nbgbengi u`e|k}u) gbl

sh neh g }` dk}` nb |`c}g |`l ) jk } `xgdpi` sn |h nb |h `

@}k g }`g" ]`jk}d u uhkil g iuk m` c nz`b g p} nk} n | ~ nb b`s @P d`dm`} u |g|`u) nb pg}| ne ig} |hku`

bl`}cknbc u | }e|}g i ehgbc`u shneh }`bl`} |h`d

dk}` uue`p| nm i` j nbgbe ng i gbl nb |`}bg| nkbgi

uhkeau" Sn|hnb ekb|}n`u) `dphgunu ekil m` cnz`b|k } `jk}d u nb i`uu }`un i n`b| nb lu|}n`u" Nb |h nu }`cg} l)

`x|`blnbc | h nu sk}a m ~ gllnbc d k}` u`e|k}$up`e nj ne

lg|g sn i i p}kz nl` j} |h`} `z nl`be` |hg| u`e|k}g i

}`jk}du egb gj j`e| }`u n i n`be`" J}|h`}dk}`) sn |h nb

|h`u` nblu|}n`u) }`jk}du jkeunbc kb |hku` u`e|k}u

shneh hgz` dk}` s`nch| nb kz`}g i i nblu|} ng i

k|p| nb |h` @P) ueh gu dgehnb`}~ gbl

`wnpd`b| ) dk|k} z`hne i`u) gbl d`|gi p}kle|u )

s kil hgz` g c}`g|`} nd pge| g| | h` @P i`z`i "

Kb |h` shki`) cnz`b |h`u` lnj j`}`be`u ge}kuuu`e|k}u ) g u`e|k}g i gpp}kgeh |k p}kle| dg}a`|

}`jk}d u dg~ g iuk m n il kb `x nu | nbc @P pki nen`u gbl

nbn | ng| nz`u) |hu mkku|nbc |h` kz`}gi i }`un i n`be` kj

|h` @P `ekbkd~" Sn |h nb |h n u j }gd`sk}a |h`

l n }`e| nkbu gbl |h` k} n`b|g| nkbu c nz`b m~ |h`

@}kp`gb Ekd d nuu nkb g bl | h` @}kp`gb Ekben i |k

D `dm`}u U|g| `u) sn |h nb |h` I numkb u | }g| `c~ gbl|h` Bg| nkbgi ]`jk}d _}kc}gdd`u) ekil m` dk}`

jkeu`l k b i`uu }`un i n`b| u`e|k }u"

\h` j nbl nbc |hg| p`}hgpu |h` l`dgbl ` igu| ne n |~ kj

nbekd` `xpignbu ukd` kj d`gu}`l lnj j`}`be`u nb}`un i n`be`) ucc`u|u |hg| j nuegi pki ne~ ekil pig~ g

}ki` nb kjju`|| nbc |h`u` `jj`e|u l}nbc u`z`}`

lksb|}bu" S`i i $l`u ncb`l pki ne n`u ekil m`

nb | }kle`l nb ueh g sg~ |hg| |h`~ hgz` g m ncc`}

ndp ge| |k CL_) gbl g| |h` ugd` | nd ` dnb nd nu` |h`

j nuegi ndpge| ) u nbe` |h`~ sk il ekz`} kbi~ |h ` d ku|

zib`}gmi` u`e|k}u) gbl p`}hgpu ekb|}n`u" \h`u`

ekil nbe il` pki ne n`u shneh h`ip mkku| l`dgbl

l n }`e| i~ ) jk} `xgdpi` |h}kch umu nl n`u shneh

`bek}gc` ekbudp| nkb k} nbz`u|d`b| " Ueh

ueh`d`u s`}` u`l nb ukd` ekb|}n`u gbl up`enj ne

u`e|k }u l} nbc | h` igu| }`e`uunkb" Ukd ` j i`xnmn i n |~ nb|h` u` kj u |g|` g nl ekil |h`}`jk}` m` `bz nugc`ljk} e}nunu p`}nklu) kb |h `u` c}k bl u" Kj ek} u`) ueh

gb gpp}kgeh }`wn }`u ekb|} n`u |k hgz`

ekbu nl`}gmi` j nuegi }kkd |k }`ge| nb mgl | nd`u)

ukd`|hnbc shneh sgu gmu`b| nb |h` }`e`b| }`e`uunkb"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

12/847?

7"Nb|}kle|nkb \h` dgnb kmf`e| nz` kj |h nu u |l~ nu |k `xgdnb` |h` glfu|d`b| egpgen|~ ) k} }`u n i n`be`) kj

nblu|} ng i u`e|k}u kj |h` @}kp`gb Pbnkb (@P. |k uhkeau gbl |k gbgi~v` |h` }k i` |hg|nbu| n | | nkbgi jge|k}u gbl) nb pg}| ne ig}) p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig| nkbu) p ig~ nb |h nu glfu|d`b|p}ke`uu" \h` gbgi~unu nu ekble|`l g| g u`e|k}gi gu s`ii gu g| ekb|}~ i`z`i6 s` snuh |kp}kznl` nb jk}dg|nkb gmk| |h` }`u n i n`be` kj l n j j`}`b| nblu|} ng i um$u`e|k}u jk} `geh kj |h`ekb| } n`u gbgi~v`l" S ` }gba nblu|} ng i u`e|k}u nb |`}d u kj }`u n in`be` gbl g|| `d p| | k `xpig nbs hg| l`| `}d nb`u |h `u` }gbanbcu"

\h` |kpne kj |h nu u |l~ nu kj pg}| ne ig} }` i`zgbe` g| p}`u`b|) jk i iksnbc |h` `ekbkdne e} nu nush neh dku| ekb| } n`u `xp`} n`be`l nb }`e`b| ~`g}u gbl sh neh sgu gldn | |`l i~ kb` k j |h`d ku| u`z`}` kj |h ` pgu| e`b|} ~) gbl g iuk m`egu` kj | h` pg}| ne ig} ehgi i`bc`u jge`l m~ | h`@P gbl |h` `}k g}`g) nbe ilnbc j nuegi uu|g nbgmn i n |~ ) ekdp`|n | nz`b`uu) b`dpik~d`b| gblikbc$}b c}ks|h " Pbl`}u |gbl nbc sh neh u`e |k }u k j |h` `ekbkd~ g}` dk}` ekbu | }g nb`l nb|h `n} gmn i n|~ | k glfu| |k glz`}u` uhkeau gbl |h ` }k i` p ig~`l m~ p}kl e| d g}a`| }`cig| nkbu nbekbu|}g nb nbc glfu|d`b| egpgen|~ egb h`ip u |k `xpig nb |h` l n j j`}`be`u nb p`}jk}dgbe`kmu`}z`l l} nbc |h ` =??8$?> lks b|} b gbl | k l`u ncb pk i ne~ u| }g |`c n`u jk } |h` j | }` |hg |}`le` |h` b`cg|nz` `jj`e|u kj glz`}u` uhkeau" \h` }gbanbc ge}kuu u`e|k}u nb |`}du kj}`u n i n`be` gbl u nv` egb g iuk h`ip u nl`b| n j~ |h` u`e|k}u |hg| jge` dk}` u`z`}` glfu|d`b|p}km i`du gbl |h`}` jk }` sh`}` p }kle | dg}a` | l`$ }`c ig | nkb dg~ i`gl |k dk}` cg nbu nb|`} d u kj nd p}k znbc |h ` kz`}gi i }`un i n`be` kj |h ` ekb|} ~ gbl kj |h ` @P gu g shk i`"

\h` nb|}kle| nkb kj |h` u nbci` e}}`be~ sgu blkm|`li~ g c}`g| uee`uu nb @}kp`gb

hnu|k }~) |hk ch n | s gu e} n | ne nv`l m~ d gb~ kmu`}z`}u m`egu` n | l nl bk| i`gl |k g l``p j nuegibnkb ) gbl sgu bk| geekdp gbn`l m~ u|} e|}g i }`jk}d u" G l``p`} j nuegi bnkb s kil hgz`g i iks`l gb `blkc`bku | }gbu j` } d`ehgb nud sh neh sk il hgz` }`le`l pk |`b | ng i i~lgbc`}ku ndmgigbe`u ge}kuu ekb| } n`u1 u|} e|} g i }`jk}d u) kb |h ` k| h`} hgbl) s kil h gz`gi iks`l ekb| } n`u |k }`upkbl m`| |`} | k gu~d d `|} ne uhkeau (u`` L` C}gs `) =??:." Ukd ` kj|h ` p}km i`d u |h g| @}k g}`g ekb| } n`u jge`l nb }`e`b| ~`g}u egb m` | }ge`l mgea |k |h `u` |s k}`gukbu"

\h` i n |`}g|}` hgu l nueuu`l `x|`bunz`i~ |h` }k i` |hg| nbu| n | | nkbu p ig~ nb `bu} nbc |h`bj` | |` }`l jbe | nkb nbc k j dg}a` |u gbl |h` }gp nl gbl ` j j ne n`b | gl fu |d`b| k j `ekbkdnege| nz n | ~ nb | h` j ge` kj `ekbkd ne uhkeau" \h` ig| | `} nuu` nu pg}| ne ig} i~ }` i`zgb| nb g e}}`b e~

g}`g) u nbe` nblnz nlgi ekb|} n`u glfu|d`b|u |k uhkeau g}` ekbu|}g nb`l m~ |h` u~u|`d kjj nx`l bkd nbgi `xehgbc` }g|`u gbl m ~ |h ` unbci` dkb `|g}~ pk i ne~"

J}kd |h` pk nb | k j z n`s k j |h` kp | ndg i e} }`be~ g }`g i n |` }g | }` (u`` Dbl` i i ) 7>:7)DeAnbbkb) 7>:5) gbl Dkbc`i i n ) =??8) jk} `xgdpi`.) g bdm`} kj ekbln| nkbu }`cig|` |h`bg|}` kj |h` glfu|d`b| p}ke`uu |k uhkeau" _} ne` gbl sgc` j i`x nm n i n |~ g}` |~p negi i~ekbunl`}`l e}eng i nb g i iksnbc ekb |} n`u (gbl u`e|k}u. |k gmuk}m `x|`} bgi gu~d d `|} ne uhkeauk} ekd d kb uhkeau sn |h gb gu~dd `|} ne ndpge| " _}kle | d g}a`| }`u| } ne | nkbu h nbl`} p } ne` gblsgc` j i`x nm n i n |~ gbl p}`z`b| dg}a`|u j}kd }`$glfu| nbc usnj | i~ gj |`} g uhkea" \hu) p}kle|dg}a`| }`u|} ne | nkbu dg~ }`le` `ekbkdne `jj ne n`be~ gbl `ekbkdne c}ks|h" M~ jge n i n |g | nbc`b| }~ gbl `x n | ) p }kle | dg}a` | }` jk }du p`}dn | g dk}` ` j j ne n`b | }`g i ikeg | nkb k j }`uk}e`u

sn|h nb gbl ge}kuu u`e|k}u" Nb glln| nkb) sh`b p}kle| dg}a`| }`jk}du g}` bl`}|ga`b) j n }dudg~ hgz` u|}kbc`} nbe`b| nz`u |k glkp| dk}` `jj ne n`b| gbl j i`x nm i` p}kle| nkb |`ehbnw`u"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

13/84

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

14/847=

deh kj |h` glfu|d`b| egpgen|~ kj `geh u`e|k} nu ekbu|}g nb`l m~ p}kle| dg}a`|}`cig| nkbu"

K} gbgi~unu d pik~u nb jk}d g|nkb j}kd =7 nbl u|} ~ umu`e|k }u) e iguun j n`l geek}lnbc | k | h` =$lncn| BGE@ eiguunj neg|nkb" \h` ugdpi` p`}nkl s` ekbunl`} nu 7>8?$=??8" \h` ugdpi`u zg}~

ge}kuu ekb|}n`u gu lk`u |h` wgin|~ kj |h` lg|g" M`egu` kj n|u up`engi nb|`}`u|) gbl giukm`egu` s` egbbk| ~` | ) s n |h |h` d`|hklk ikc~ `dpik~`l) nl`b | n j~ n |u | }kch jk } g i i k j |h`ekb| } n`u ekbunl`}`l) s ` `xgd nb` |h ` =??8$?> }`e`uunkb nb nuk ig| nk b j}k d |h ` }`u|"

\h` }`u| kj | h` u|l~ nu k}cgbnv`l gu jk i iks u" U`e| nkb = p }kznl`u gb `x|`bunz` }`z n`s kj | h``xnu| nb c |h`k}`| negi gbl `dp n} negi i n |`}g|} `" U e | nkb 5 l`ue} nm`u |h` d `|hk lkikc~ `d pik~`lnb |h` u|l~" U`e| nkb < p}`u`b|u |h` lg|g u`l nb |h` gbgi~u nu gbl g j`s u|~ i nv`l jge|u"U`e| nkb 0 ekb|g nbu |h` }`ui|u kj |h` nbz`u| ncg| nkb jk} |h` ugdpi` 7>8?$=??81 u`e| nkb :p}`u`b|u |h` ekbeiunkbu sh `b | h` =??8$?> lks b| }b nu ekbunl`}`l" U`e| nkb 3 ud d g}nv`u|h ` d gnb ekbeiunkbu ekbe`}bnbc u`e|k }g i }`u ni n`be` h nchi nch| nbc s hneh kj |h ` i`gu| }`u ni n`b|u`e|k}u g}` dk}` ndpk}|gb| sn|h nb |h` @P" Jnbgi i~ ) u`e| nkb 8 p}`u`b|u |h` ekbeiu nkbu gbl

d gnb pki ne~ nd pi neg| nkb u" \h` Gpp`bl nx ekb| g nbu g zg} n`|~ kj glln| nkb gi upp k}| nbc dg| `} ng i "5

5

Gll n| nk bgi `u|ndg| nkbu gbl lnueuunkb) nbeil nbc gbl gbgi~unu kj gcc}`cg|` BGE@$: `ekbkd ne u`e|k} u egb m`jkbl nb |h ` `x|`bl`l }`pk} | U|l~ kb - _}kle | d g}a` | }` jk }du gbl gl fu|d `b| n b |h` @}kp`gb `ekbkd~- )p}`pg}`l m~ | h` @}kp`gb Ekd d nuunkb) LC@EJNB) m~ |h ` ugd` g| hk}u"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

15/8475

="G ]`zn`s kj |h` \h`k}`|negi gbl @dpn}negi In|`}g|}`

="7"

@ekbkdne Glfu|d`b|u gbl Nbu|n||nkbgi ]`jk}du

\h` nd pk} | gbe` k j nbu| n | | nkbu jk } | h` s g~ dg}a` |u jbe | nkb gbl jk } | h` gl fu|d `b| egpge n|~kj ekb|} n`u nb }`upkbu` |k `ekbkdne uhkeau nu s`i i bl`}u|kkl nb |h`k}~" Nb n | ng iekb | } nm | nkbu |k |h nu i n |` }g | }` hgz` dgnb i~ jkeu`l kb |h` }` ig | nkbuh np m` |s``bnbu| n | | nkbgi ekbu|} g nb|u gbl igmk} d g}a`| glfu|d `b| u" M}b k gbl Ugehu (7>80. g}` gdkb c|h` j n }u | |k `dphgunv` |h` }k i` |hg| nbu| n | | nkbu dg~ hgz` hgl nb } nu nbc @}kp`gbb`d pik~d `b| nb | h` 7>3?u" Ig~g}l `| g i " (7>>7. uhks |h g| nb | h` PA |h`}` nu g }` ig| nkb uhnpm`|s``b nbu| n | | nkbgi ehgbc`u gbl b`dpik~d`b| ehgbc`u) gbl _h`ipu (7>>

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

16/8470. g}c`u hks`z`}|hg | l } nz nbc j n}d u k | k j |h` d g}a`| egb nbe }`gu` nblu| }~ ekbe`b| }g | nkb gbl d g}apu n j b`spk|`b| ng i `b|}gb|u g}` ekbu|}g nb`l m~ gcc}`uunz` dg}a`| u |}g|`cn`u kb |h` pg}| kjnbedm`b|u "

Gu jg} gu |h ` p}k le| nz` `jj ne n`be~ ehgbb`i nu ekbe`}b`l) C}n j j n |h gbl Hg}} nukb (=??>81 D `~`} gbl Znea`}u) 7>>31 Bnea`i`| g i " ) 7>>31 gbl S nbu|k b) 7>>5."

\h`}` nu s`ga `znl`be` nb jgzk} k j g pku n| nz` }` ig| nkbuh np m` |s ``b p}kle | d g}a`| }` jk }d ugbl l~bgd ne j j ne n`be~) unbe` |h` i nba m`| s ``b p}k le| nz n | ~ gbl nbbkzg| nkb nu g ekb| }kz`}u nginuu` nb |h` i n |`}g|}` gbl lg|g ekbu|}g nb|u p}`z`b| p}kp`} |`u| nbc kj |h nu ehgbb`i" Kb |h`kb` hgbl) dk}` ekdp`| n | nkb sk}au |k }`le` |h` dkbkpk i~ }`b |u |hg | egb m` u`l |k

j nbgbe` nbbkzg| nkb (u`` Gchnkb gbl Hks n| | ) 7>>=1 ]kd `}) 7>>?1 Lgucp|g gbl U| nc i n |v ) 7>8?."Kb |h` k | h`} hgbl) p }kle | d g}a`| ekd p`| n | nkb d g~ jk }e` nbbkzg| nkbu ) uk | hg | nbedm`b|j n }du egb g isg~u m` kb` u|`p gh`gl kj pk|`b| ng i `b|}gb|u (Ghb) =??7.) k} c nz` j n }dunbe`b| nz`u |k `uegp` e} }`b | ekdp`| n | nkb | h }kch p}kl e | l n j j` }`b | ng | nkb $ g i |hk ch |h`u`nbe`b| nz`u skil l nugpp`g} sh`b p}kle|u g}` ujj ne n`b| i~ l n j j`}`b| ng |`l (Gchnkb `| g i " )=??0." Gchnkb g| g i " (=??0. g}c` |h g| |h` }` ig| nkbuhnp m`|s ``b ekd p`| n | nkb gbl nbbkzg| nkbdu| m` bkb$ i nb`g}) sn|h z`}~ h nch gbl z`}~ iks i`z`iu kj ekdp`|n | nkb l nuek}gcnbcnbbkzg| nkb "

Dku| `dpn} neg i u |ln`u j nbl |hg| nbe}`gu`l ekdp`|n | nkb }`le`u dg}apu (gbl |h`}`jk}`jku|`} g i ikeg| nz` `jj ne n`be~." Ki nz` n}g D g}| nbu `| g i" (7>>:. j nbl g b`cg| nz` ek}} ` ig| nkbm`| s ``b `b| }~ }g|`u gbl d g}apu" Gi i`b `| g i " (7>>8. gbl |h ` @}kp `gb Ekd d nuunkb (7>>:.lked`b| g ek} }` ig | nkb m` |s ``b |h` e }`g | nkb k j |h` unbci` dg}a` | nb @}kp` gbl }`le | nkbunb eku|$p} ne` dg}cnbu" Hks`z`}) dg}apu dg~ m` iks`} m`egu` p} ne`u g}` l`ei nb nbc k}m`egu` eku|u g}` nbe}`gu`l) gbl |h ` ig | |`} s kil nd pi~ ud gi i`} }g|h`} | hgb c}`g|`} nbl u|} ~`jj nen`be~) gu g}c`l nb D gehnb gbl Zgb ]``b`b (7>>5." Kb |h nu | kp ne) Ugb` }$I`}k ~ (=??5.uhks u |h g| d g}apu gbl p} ne`u fk nb| i~ l`ei nb`l nb @}k p` s n|h | h` glz`b| kj g unbci` d g}a`|"

< \h` Ekb|`u|gmi` Dg}a`| \h`k}~ nu g u | }gbl kj dne}k`ekbkdne i n |`}g|}` nb n | ng |`l m~ Mgdki (7>8=. gblj}|h`} l`z`ikp`l m~ Mgdki ) _gbvg}) gbl Sn i i nc (7>8=. shneh g}c`u |hg| dg}a`|u egb kp`}g|` e iku` |k

p`}j`e| ekdp`| n | nkb `z`b sn |h g }`u|} ne |`l bdm`} kj j n }du) gu ikbc gu |h`}` nu g uj j ne n`b| i~ e}`lnm i` |h}`g||hg| b`s j n }du egb `b|`} |h` dg}a`| gbl }`pige` |h` nbedm`b|u" Nb |h nu egu`) |h` dg}a`|u g}` egi i`lekb|`u |gm i` "

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

17/8470

Gbk|h`} u | }gbl k j |h` `dpn} neg i i n |` }g | }` hgu jkeu`l nbu |`gl kb |h` i nba m` |s``bekdp`|n | nz`b`uu gbl p}kle| nz n |~ " \h`u` u|ln`u lked`b| g pkun | nz` }` ig| nkbuhnp m`|s``b`b|}~ gbl p}kle|nzn|~" Mg}b`u `| gi" (=??7.) C}ni neh`u gbl ]`c`z (7>>0.) gbl Mgni~ `| gi"(7>>=. j nbl `znl`be` kj u ncbn j negb| sn|h nb j n }d `jj`e| ( nbe}`gu`u nb p}kle| nz n |~ sn|h nb j n }du.gbl k j g deh udgi i` } ekb | } nm | nkbu k j m` |s``b j n }d ` j j`e | (guuke ng |`l sn |h dg}a` |

}`u|}e|} nbc z ng `b|}~ gbl `xn | k} ehgbc`u nb dg}a`| uhg}` |ksg}lu dk}` `jj ne n`b| j n }du."Bnea`i i ` | g i " (7>>3) 7>>=. gbl Hg}} nukb (7>>>=.) gbl C}``b gbl Dg~`u (7>>7. u|l~ |h` }` ig| nkbuhnp m`|s``b dg}a`|ekbe`b|}g | nkb gbl |`ehb neg i ` j j ne n`be~ gbl j nbl |hg | dg}a` | ekbe`b| }g | nkb |`blu |k m`guukeng|`l s n|h } `le| nkb u nb | `ehbnegi `j j nen`be~ m| kb i~ gmkz` g e`}|g nb | h}`uhkil" C} n j j n |h(=??7. uhksu nbu |`gl |hg | p }kle | nz n |~ cg nbu jk i iksnbc p}kle | dg}a` | ekdp`| n | nkb nb@}kp` hgz` kee}}`l dk}` nb j n }du sh`}` dgbgc`d`b| gbl ksb`}uh np g }` u`pg}g |`l(p} nbe npgi$gc`b| |~p`u kj j n }du.) shneh uppk}|u |h` nl`g |hg| ekdp`|n | nkb sk}au |k }`le`gc`be~ eku|u" Fgcgbbg|hgb gbl U}nbnzgugb (=???. p}kznl` undnig} `znl`be` jk} |h` Pbn|`l

U|g|`u" Jnbgii~) Bneki`|| n gbl Ueg}p`||g (=??5. uhks u|}kbc `znl`be` kj uncbnj negb|}` ig| nkbuh np m` |s ``b p}kle | d g}a`| }`c ig | nkbu gbl p}kle | nz n |~ p`} jk }d gbe`) s n |h `b | }~i nm`}g i nvg| nkb i`glnbc |k |k|g i jge|k} p}kle| nz n |~ cgnbu nb g i i ekb|} n`u) shn i` Ekbsg~ `| g i "(=??:. uhks |hg | ekdp`| n | nkb hgu g u| }kb c pkun | nz` ndpge| kb igmk} p }kle | nz n |~ c }ks| h "

M`unl` p}kdk|nbc `jj ne n`be~ nb p}kle| nkb) p}kle| dg}a`| }`jk}du |hg| nbe}`gu`ekdp`| n | nkb gdkbc j n }du egb g iuk ndp}kz` |h` gl fu |d`b| egpge n |~ |k glz`}u`dge}k`ekbkdne uhkeau m~ p}kdk|nbc bkdnbgi j i`x nm n i n |~ ) gbl |hu ` i ndnbg| nbc p`}u nu |`b|p} ne` gbl s gc` nbj ig | nkb l n j j`} `b| ng iu" \h`}` g}` d gb~ ehgbb`iu |h }k ch s hneh gb nbe}`gu` nbekdp`| n | nkb egb i`gl |k dk}` p} ne` gbl sgc` j i`x nm n i n |~ " H nch`} ekdp`| n | nkb }`le`uki nckpki nu | ne m`hgznk} gbl ekk}lnbg| nkb jg n i}`u |hg| p}`z`b| j n }du j}kd glfu| nbc p} ne`u nb}`upkbu` |k uhkeau (u`` ]k|`dm`}c gbl Skkljk}l) 7>>7." Nb glln| nkb) nb ekdp`|n | nz`d g}a`|u j n }d u }`u`| | h`n} p} ne`u d k}` j }`w`b| i~ ) }`lenbc p} ne` u| nea nb`uu" \hu ekd p`| n | nz`dg}a`|u i`gl |k g jgu|`} glfu|d`b| kj }` ig| nz` p} ne`u gbl |k gb `jj ne n`b| }`gi ikeg| nkb kj}`uk}e`u" Gizg}`v gbl H`}bgblk (=??:. uhks |h g| p} kl e| d g}a`| }`cig| nkbu |hg| } `u|} ne|ekdp`| n | nkb }`le` p} ne` j i`x nm n i n|~ ) gbl |hg | nb d k}` ekd p`| n | nz` d g}a`|u j n }d gl fu| p } ne`ujgu|`} nb }`upkb u` |k uhkeau" Gu jg} gu s gc` ji`xnmni n | ~ nu ekbe`}b `l) Mkihk i `| gi" (=??:. gblF gb gbl Bnek i` | | n (=??

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

18/847:

Nb | h` j n }u| | } gln | nkb) m unb`uu$e~ei` j ie|g| nkbu ge}kuu ekb| } n`u g}` |~p negi i~ l`ekdp ku`lnb|k g ekddkb ekdpkb`b| (shneh egp|}` |h` u~beh}kbnv`l pg}| kj }`upkbu`u ge}kuuekb|} n`u. gbl nl nku~be}g| ne ekdpkb`b|u (shneh egp|}` |h` bu~beh}kbnv`l pg}| kj |h`}`upkbu`u." Nl nku~be}g| ne ekd pkb `b|u egb `xnu| jk} |s k } `gukbu6 m`egu` |h`}` g}` uhkeaus hneh g}` up`enj ne |k g ekb |} ~ k} g dg}a`| ) k} m`egu` l n j j`} `b| ekb |} n`u k} d g}a`|u hgz`

lnj j`} `b| }`un i n`be` | k ekd d kb uhkeau" S hn i` d gb~ `d pn} neg i u| ln`u hgz` uhks b |hg|munb`uu e~ei` j ie|g|nkbu ge}kuu @}kp`gb ekb|}n`u g}` nlnku~be}g|ne (u`` H`iminbc gblMg~kdn) =??51 M`}cdgb) =??:1 gbl Lzgi `| g i " ) =??3.) deh i`uu nu abksb gmk| |h`lnj j`} `b| ng i }`u ni n`be` kj ekb| }~ gbl u`e|k }u |k ekd d kb uhkeau" Nb c`b`}gi ) |h` km u`}zg| nkbkj nl nku~be}g| ne munb`uu e~ei` j ie|g| nkbu hgu i`l }`u`g}eh`}u |k |}~ |k `zgig|`dge}k`ekbkdne p`}jk}dgbe` nb }`upkbu` |k `ekbkdne uhkeau nb |`}du kj |h` }`u n i n`be`sn |h sh neh |h` `ekbkd~ }`u nu |u |k |h` ndpge| k j ekddkb uhkeau " Hks`z`} ) |k `zg ig |``ekbkd ne p`}jk }d gbe` nb ueh g sg~) p}`enu` l`j nb n | nkb u kj s hg| }`u ni n`be` d `gbu gbl kjs hg| g}` | h` }` i`zgb| uhkeau g}` b``l`l"

Lzgi `| g i " (=??3. glgp| |h` d`|hklkikc~ kj Migbehg}l gbl Skij`}u (=???. |k u|l~ |h`nd pge| kj u|} e|} g i ehgbc`u kb ekb| } n`u } `un i n`be` |k uhkeau" \h`~ l`j nb` } `un i n`be` gu |h`gm n i n |~ k j ekb| } n`u |k dg nb |g nb k |p | e iku` |k pk |`b | ng i nb |h` g j |` }dg|h k j uhkeau ) gbld `gu}` n | nb |s k s g~u6 m~ gbgi~vnbc hks u|} kbc nu |h ` nd pge| kj c ikmgi uhkeau kb b g| nkbgik|p| cgpu (gdpi n j neg| nkb `jj`e|. ) gbl hks jgu| bg| nkbgi k|p| cgpu g}` ` i ndnbg|`l nb |h`gj|`}dg|h kj uhkeau (p`}u nu |`be` `jj`e|. " \h` gdpi n j neg| nkb gbl |h` p`}u nu |`be` `jj`e|u g}``u| ndg|`l sn|h bkb$ i nb`g} i`gu| uwg}` nb pgb`i }`c}`uunkbu) sh`}` k|p| cgpu g}`}`c}`uu`l kb |h`n} igcu) kb |h` uhkeau) gbl kb ekb|}~ up`enj ne `j j`e|u) g i iksnbc jk} mk|hbkmu`}z`l ekddkb lnu|}mgbe`u gbl kmu`}z`l ekddkb gbl ekb|}~$up`enj nel nu| }mgbe`u" \h` p g}gd`| `}u guukeng|`l s n|h |h` igcc`l k| p| cgpu d `gu}` p`}u nu|`b e`1|h ku` guukeng|`l s n|h |h ` uhkeau d`gu}`u gdpi n j neg| nkb"

\h` l nu | nbe| nkb m`|s``b |h` gdpi n j neg| nkb gbl |h` p`}u nu |`be` kj uhkeau nu ndpk}|gb|m`egu` nbu| n | | nkbu |hg | h` ip lgdp `b |h ` nd pge| k j uhkeau dg~) g| |h` ugd` | nd`) d ga`uhkeau dk}` p`}u nu |`b|" U|} ne | `dpik~d`b| }`cig| nkb) jk} nbu|gbe`) dg~ l`|`} j n }du j}kdig~ nbc k j j sk}a`}u ) uppk} | nbc `dpik~d`b| gbl ekbudp| nkb nb |h` uhk} | $ }b " Hks`z`} )|h`~ dg~ i`gl |k ikuu`u jk } |h` j n }du gbl g dk}` i`bc |h~ gl fu |d`b| nb |h` ikbc }b )l`ig~ nbc |h ` }`|} b kj k| p| |k p k| `b| ng i " Lzgi `| g i" (=??3. gbgi~v` hks nbu| n | | nkbu gjj`e||h ` gdp i n j neg| nkb gbl |h ` p`}u nu|`b e` `jj`e|u kj uhkeau m~ g i iks nbc |h`u` pg}gd`| `}u |k m`l`|`}dnb`l m~ p}kle| gbl igmk}$dg}a`| nbu| n | | nkbgi ehg}ge|`} nu | neu" Nb |h` u`| kjnbu| n | | nkbgi zg} ngmi`u |h`~ nbe il`6 ( n . |h` b`dpik~d`b| m`b`j n | }`pige`d`b| }g|`1 ( n n . |h`

u|} nbc`be~ kj `d pik~d `b| p }k| `e| nkb i`cnuig| nkb (@_I.1 (n n n . |h ` u|} nbc`be~ kj p}k le| d g}a`|}`cig| nkb (_D ]. ge}kuu u`z`b bk b$d gbjge|} nbc nbl u|} n`u1 ( nz. |h` eki i`e| nz` m g}cgnb nbcekz`}gc`1 gbl | h` (z. l`c}`` kj e`b|}g i nvg| nkb+ ek$k}l nbg| nkb k j s gc` mg}cgnb nbc" ( n n .) (n n n .)gbl (z. gpp`g} |k m` |h` dku| u ncbn j negb| jge|k}u nb `xpig nb nbc l n j j`}`be`u nb gdpi n j neg| nkbgbl p`}u nu|`be`" \k m` gmi` |k geekb| jk} k| h`} jge|k} |h g| d g~ gjj`e| } `un i n`be`) |h`~ g iuknbe il` gu }`c}`uuk}u |h` uhg}` kj hk u`hkil d k}| cgc` l`m| | k CL_) |h` uhg}` kj | k | g i mgbae}`l n | |k u |kea dg}a` | zg i` | }gl`l ( |k ekb | }k i jk } l n j j` }`be`u nb dkb`|g}~ pk i ne~|} gbud nuunkb. gbl |h ` uhg}` kj k z`}gi i |gx }`e`np|u nb CL_ (|k ekb| }k i jk } l n j j `}`be`u nb |h `unv` kj g| kd g|ne u|gmn i nv`}u. nb glln| nkb | k ld d n`u egp| } nbc |h ` `xehgbc` }g|` }`cnd`" Nbc`b`}gi ) |h` }`ui|u nbl neg|` |hg| u |} nbc`b| }`cig| nkbu lgdp`b |h` uhk}|$}b ndpge| kjuhkeau m | d ga` |h`d dk }` p`}unu|`b | "

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

19/8473

=" u`}zne` p}klenbc u`e|k}u" \h` gbgi~unu nu mgu`l kb ekb|}~ gblu`e|k} up`enj ne m nzg} ng|` ZG]u jk} k| p| gbl nbj ig | nk b" \h`~ d `gu}` }`u n i n`be` nb |s k s g~u6z ng |h` edig| nz` nb j ig | nkb ehgbc` jk i iksnbc g uppi~ gbl l`dgbl uhkea1 gbl z ng |h` ed ig| nz` k| p| c}ks |h ikuu nb |h ` egu` kj upp i~ uhkeau (l`d gbl uhkeau hgz` bk ikbc}b `jj`e|u kb k|p| m~ ekbu|}e| nkb." L`dgbl gbl uppi~ uhkeau g}` nl`b| n j n`l unbc |h`Migbehg}l$Wgh d `|h kl (u`` Migbehg}l gbl Wgh) 7>8>." N| | }b u k| |h g| gc} ne i |}` gbldnbnbc g}` |h` dku| }`u n i n`b| u`e|k}u shn i` | }gl` gbl munb`uu u`}z ne`u g}` |h` i`gu|}`u n i n`be`) `z`b |hkch |h`}` g}` l n j j`}`be`u nb |h` }gbanbc kj u`e|k}u l`p`blnbc kbsh`|h`} l`dgbl k} uppi~ uhkeau g}` ekbunl`}`l" _`iadgbu `| g i hks`z`} lk bk| i nba}`jk}du gbl }`u n i n`be` l n}`e| i~ " \hu) |h`~ g}` bgmi` |k d`gu}` |h` `jj`e| nz`b`uu kj

}`jk }d u kb |h ` glfu|d `b| egpgen|~ kj u`e|k }u"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

20/8478

5" U|l~ D`|hklkikc~\h` dgnb g nd kj |h` u|l~ nu |k `u| ndg|` gbl ekdpg}` nblu|} ng i u`e|k}u }`u n i n`be` |k

uhkeau) gbl nl`b| n j~ |h` i nbau m`| s ``b `u| nd g|`l }`u n in`be` gbl p} kl e| d g}a`| }`cig| nkb u"S ` sn i i l`j nb` }`u n i n`be` |k uhkeau geek}lnbc |k | h` `u| nd g|`l ek}}` ig| nkb m `|s ``b u`e|k}g ik|p| ehgbc`u kz`} munb`uu e~ei` phgu`u gbl ekddkb uhkeau" S` hgz` ehku`b |kekbunl`} kbi~ ekddkb lnu|}mgbe`u m`egu` |h nu g i iksu u |k l}gs ekbeiu nkbu gmk|l n j j`}`be`u nb }`upkbu`u |k uhkeau) sn|hk| sk}}~ nbc gmk| nl nku~be}g| ne l nu |}mgbe`u |hg|gjj`e| l n j j`}`b| u`e|k}u" \hnu sg~ s` egb nuk ig|` p}` }`upkbu`u |k ekddkb uhkeau"]`un i n`be` nu l`j nb`l m ~ |h` l `c}`` kj ek$dkz`d `b| m`| s ``b uhkeau gbl u`e|k}g i k| p| " Nbpg}| ne ig} }`u n i n`be` nu ug nl |k m` h nch`} s h`}` | h` ek}}` ig| nkb m`| s ``b uhkeau gbl k |p | nuiks (d`gb nbc |hg | | h` u`e |k } + ekb| }~ hgu n|u ks b l~bgd neu. " \h` }`pk} | jkeu`u kb `}k$g}`g snl` uhkeau) u nbe` |h`u` g}` dku| i na` i~ |k egp|}` g i i k j |h` ekddkb lnu|}mgbe`u

hn| | nbc @P ekb| } n`u" Nb `}k $g}`g s nl` lg|g) u`e|k}g i gbl ekb| }~ gu~d d `|} ne uhkeau uhk ilegbe` i k | ) i`gz nbc dku| i~ ekd d kb l nu| }m gbe`u1 hks `z`} ) |k |`u| s h`|h`} | h`}` ek il m` gpkuunm i` `blkc`b`n|~ p}kmi`d nb |h` gbgi~u nu ) g} nu nbc j}kd |h nu d`|hklkikc~) s` g iuk`xgd nb` hks |h ` }`ui| u ehgbc` sh`b PU uhkeau g}` ekbunl`}`l gbl }`pk}| |h `u` }`ui| u nbGpp `bl nx E"

\k bl`}| ga` |h nu gbgi~unu s ` b``l |k l `j nb` gbl wgb| n j~ ekdd kb uhkeau) gbl | k d `gu}`u`e|k}g i munb`uu e~ei` gdpi n |l`u6 |hg| nu ) k|p| jg i iu ( nbe}`gu`u. m`|s``b p`ga ( |}kch.gbl | }k ch (p`ga." Nb k}l`} |k d `gu}` m unb`uu e~ei` gdp i n |l `u s ` hgz` |k l `j nb` u`e|k}g i| }b nbc pknb|u) n "` " p`gau gbl |}k chu" Gj| `} |hg|) s` und pi~ `xgd nb` |h ` ek}}` ig| nkbm`|s``b |h` l`p|h kj g }`e`uunkb) jk} `xgdpi`) sn|h |h` nbe nl`be` kj `}k g}`g uhkeau

l} nbc |hg | `xge| p`} nkl "0

Nb k }l`} | k bl`} | ga` |h nu gbgi~unu s ` hgz` l nz nl`l | h` s k}a nb |k jk} d g nb u |`pu s h neh s n i im` l`ue}nm`l nb l `| gni nb |h ` b`x| um$u`e|nkb u6 ( n. nl`b| nj neg|nk b kj m unb`uu e~ei` phgu`u1 ( n n.|h ` ekbu|} e| nkb kj d `gu}`u kj u`e|k}g i k |p | ehgbc`u kz`} | h` nl`b| n j n`l munb`uu e~ei`phgu`u1 ( n n n . |h` d`gu}`d`b| kj |h` u ncb gbl nb|`bun |~ kj |h` ekddkb uhkeau kz`} |h`nl`b| n j n`l m unb`uu e~ei` p hgu`u1 gbl j nbg i i~ ( nz. |h` `ekbkd `|} ne gbgi~unu" \h` `ekbkd `|} negbgi~u nu sn i i h` ip l`|`}dnb` |h` ek}}` ig| nkb kj u`e|k}g i k|p| ehgbc`u sn|h uhkeau) gbl|h`}`jk}` |h`n} }`u n i n`be`" J}|h`}dk}`) n | sn i i h` ip `xpig nb zg} ng| nkbu nb |h`u` ek}}` ig| nkbuge}kuu ekb| }n`u gbl u`e|k }u) unbc g u`| k j p kuunmi` `xpigbg| k}~ zg} ngmi`u"

5"7" @u|gminuhnbc Munb`uu E~ei` Eh}kbkikcn`u\k `u|gminuh munb`uu$e~ei` phgu`u s` u` |h` ekbe`p| kj eiguunegi munb`uu e~ei`u gblgppi~ n | | k | h` k |p | u`} n`u kj | h` zg} nku u`e|k}u gbgi~v`l" Nb |h nu s g~ s ` `u|gmi nuh u`e|k}$up`enj ne e~ei`u" Kb` glzgb|gc` kj egieig|nbc u`e|k}$mgu`l munb`uu$e~ei` phgu`u nu |hg| n|g i iksu jk} l n j j `}`be`u nb |h ` | nd nbc kj |h` | }gbud nuunkb kj ekd d kb uhkeau |k u`e|k}u) s hnehs k il bk | m` |h` egu` n j s` ehku` nbu|`gl |k ndpk u` ekdd kb lg |`u "

0 Gb gi |`}bg| nz` p}ke`l}` s hneh nu |`u|`l nu |k `u| ndg|` | }bnb c pknb|u u nbc `}k$g}`g CL_ gbl nd pku` |h`u`gu ekd d kb | }bnbc pk nb|u jk} g i i |h` u`e|k}gi k| p| u`} n`u" \hnu g i |`}bg| nz` d `|hk lkikc~ nu z`}~ } nc nl |h kch)

u nbe` n | lk`u bk| ekbunl`} gb~ | nd`$zg} ng| nkb nb |h` }`upkbu`u kj u`e|k}u |k uhkeau) gbl lk`u bk| ~ n` il gb~uncbn j negb| }`ui |u jk} | h` s hki` ugdpi`1 m| n | s n i i m` u`l gu g u`ekbl$m`u| g i |`}bg| nz` jk} gbgi~unbc |h` =??8$?> munb`uu e~ei` lks b| }b"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

21/847>

Nl`b|nj~nbc munb`uu e~ei`u) hks`z`}) nu bk| gb `gu~ |gua nb p}ge|ne` gbl `b|gniu) g| | nd`u) ge`}|g nb l`c}`` kj flcd`b|" \}gln| nkbgi i~ ) nb |h` Pbn|`l U|g|`u |h` Bg| nkbgi M}`g kj@ekbkdne ]`u`g}eh (BM@]. lg|`u p`gau gbl |}kchu sn|h |h` ek}}`upkblnbc e~ei`u)}`p}`u`b| nbc p`} nklu kj `xpgbunkb gbl ekb|}ge| nkb nb |h` i`z`i kj ge| nz n |~ ) abksb giuk gu e iguunegi munb`uu e~ei`u" ]`e`b| i~ g lg| nbc ekddn||`` gldnbnu|`}`l m~ |h` E`b|}` jk}

@ekbkdne _kine~ ]`u`g}eh (E@_]. hgu |ga`b p |h` lg|nbc kj eiguunegi munb`uu e~ei` kb gjk} d gi mgunu jk} | h` `}k g}`g":

G bdm`} kj g i |`}bg| nz` d`|hklu hgz` m``b u`l |k nl`b| n j~ munb`uu e~ei` |}b nbc pknb|u"Nb | h` Pb n|` l U|g| `u) |h ` BM@] Munb`uu E~ei` Lg| nbc Ekd d n|| `` d ``| u kb g }`cig} m gunu |kgbgi~v` gzgn igmi` nb jk} d g|nkb j k} | h` Pbn| `l U|g| `u gbl }`geh g ekbu`buu gmk | | h` | nd nbckj |}b nbc pknb|u mgu`l) ig}c`i~) kb M}bu gbl Dn|eh`i i u (7>>>:>.) Anbcgbl _ikuu`} (7>>>>3."

Nb ukd` egu`u) hks`z`}) |h` MM p}ke`l}` egbbk| nl`b| n j~ |}b nbc pknb|u nb |h` lg|g" \hnukj| `b kee}u n j |h ` u`} n`u g}` uhk} | ) k} nb |`}p kig|`l" Jk} | h` egu`u nb s hneh |h` MM p}ke`l}`lk`u bk| ~ n` il }`ui|u s ` ehku` |k nl`b| n j~ e~e i`u unbc g ekd d kbi~ u`l } i` kj | hd m) |h`|sk$ekbu`e| nz`$l`ei nb` } i` geek}lnbc |k shneh g }`e`uunkb nu ug nl |k kee| n j k|p|

l`e inb`u m~ g | i`gu| |s k wg} |` }u 1 g dnb nd d |s k$wg} |` } pku n| nz` c }ks| h nu giuk nd pku`ljk} `xpgbunkbu" \hnu g iuk }`wn}`u umu`w`b| i~ eh`eanbc gbl ` i ndnbg| nbc k| i n`}u (`"c" |s kk} d k}` ekbu`e| nz` lks b| }bu) ` |e ."

: G }`ig|`l ekbe`p| k j c}k s |h e~ei`u }`j`}u |k e~ei negi dkz`d `b|u g}kbl gb bl `} i~ nbc | }`b l" N | u``d u u`i j $`z nl`b| | hg| } `e`uunkbu) nb | h` u`bu` kj gmuki| ` l`ei nb`u nb ge| nz n |~ ) g}` dk }` nd pk} |gb| |hgb l`ei nb`u }` ig| nz`|k | }`bl" \hnu nu `up`eng i i~ | }` jk} u`e|k}gi j ie|g| nkbu) shneh g}` }` i`zgb| jk} |h` p}`u`b| u |l~" \h`}` g}`giuk |`ehbnegi }`gukbu sh~ kb` dg~ ehkku` |k gbgi~v` eiguunegi munb`uu e~ei`u nbu|`gl kj c}ks|h e~ei`u" Nb

pg}| neig} ) l n j j`}`b| l`$| }`blnbc d `|hk lu dg~ ~ n` il l n j j`}`b | c}ks |h e~e i` eh}kbk ikcn`u (Egbkzg 7>>8.) s hnehnu g p}kmi`d sh`b |h` | }`bl nu g jvv~ ekbe`p| " J}|h`}) ekddkbi~ u`l l`$| }`blnbc d`|hklu dg~ nble`up}nk u e~ei`u) gu lnueuu l nb Anbc gbl ]`m`i ik (7>>5 . gbl Kumk }b (7>>0."

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

22/84

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

23/84=7

5"5" L`|`}dnbnbc Ekddkb Uhkeau\k `xgdnb` gbl ekdpg}` |h` }`u n i n`be` kj u`e|k}u kb` b``lu |k ekbunl`} |h` ndpge| kjekddkb uhkeau kb u`e|k}g i k|p|" Ekddkb `x|`}bgi uhkeau `bu}` |hg| s` egb `xeil`nl nku~be}g | ne l nu| }m gbe`u s h neh g }` k j i n | | i` nb |` }`u| jk } |h` |~p` k j u |l~ s ` ekble| h`}` "

Unbe` s` g}` l `gi nbc sn| h @}k p`gb ekb| } n`u kb` bg| }g i l nu| }mgbe` |k ekbunl`} nu g `}kg}`g gcc}`cg|` CL_ uhk ea" \h` glzgb| gc` kj unbc `}k g}`g lg| g nu | hg| n| nu gzgnigmi` k b gbgcc}`cg|`l i`z`i) nu ekbu|}e|`l m~ |h` @EM) gbl nu kj g ckkl wgin|~" Nb `}k g}`g lg|g)gu~d d `|} ne uhkeau uhk il gz`}gc` k| ) i`gznbc dk u| i~ | h` ekd d kb (u~d d `|} ne. uhkeau"8

\h` ekbu|}e| nkb kj ekddkb CL_ uhkeau jk} k} gbgi~u nu }`wn}`u g |sk$u|`p p}ke`l}`"Jn}u| i~ n | nu b`e`uug}~ |k nl`b| n j~ p} ` CL_ uhkeau j}k d k| h`} | ~p`u kj uhkeau) gbl s ` lk |h nuunbc g u|}e|}g i ZG] d`|hklkikc~" U`ekbli~ s` b``l |k u` |h` u`e|k}g i munb`uu$e~ei`lg|`u) nl`b| n j n`l `g} i n`} ) |k d`gu}` |h` u ncb gbl nb|`bun |~ kj |h` ekddkb uhkeau |hg| h n ||h` `}k g}`g kz`} |hg| up`enj ne p`} nkl) |hg| nu |k d`gu}` |h` uhkea nbe nl`be` gblnb| `bun |~ kz`} | h` ek}} `upkb lnbc u`e|k }g i munb`uu e~ei` ph gu`"

g" Nl`b|njneg|nkb kj uhkeau

\k `x|}ge| ekddkb uhkeau g u|gblg}l u|}e|}g i ZG] sgu `u| ndg|`l" \h` lg|g nu wg}|`} i~ekz`} nbc |h` p`} nkl 7>8?6W7$=?7?6W=) gbl nbe il` CL_ g| ekbu|gb| p} ne`u) CL_ l`j ig|k } k}E_N jk} p} ne` u`} n`u) g uhk}| $ |`}d nb|`} `u| }g|`) gbl D 5" \h` ZG] sgu `u| nd g|`l nb i`z`iu) gbl|h ` bd m`} kj igcu s gu l`|`} d nb`l m~ |h ` Gagna` gbl MNE e} n |`} nkb ">

\h` jk}$zg} ngmi` ZG] |g a`u |h ` jk}d 6

sh`}`

gbl

\h` u|}e|}gi }`unlgiu ` | g}` km|g nb`l unbc g Ehki`uan jge|k} nvg| nkb" Nb |`}du kjnb |`}p}`|g| nkb) hgznbc CL_ j n }u | ndpi n`u |hg| |h` bjk}`egu|gmi` pg}| kj CL_ nu l` |k kbi~p}` CL_ uhkeau" Jk} p}ne`u |h` bjk}`egu|gmi` pg}| nu l` |k CL_ gbl p}ne` uhkeau kbi~)

8 \k guu`uu |h` u`bun| nzn |~ kj |h` }`ui|u |k gi|`}bg|nz` lnu|}mgbe`u) s` }`p`g| |h` gbgi~unu unbc PU CL_uhkeau `u| nd g|`l nb |h` ugd` s g~ gu }k g}`g uhkeau) gbl p }`u`b| |h`u` }`ui |u nb Gpp `blnx">

Bk|` |hg| jk} |h` p}pku` kj `x|}ge| nbc ZG] uhkeau g dkl`i ) |h` u|g| nkbg} n |~ p}kp`} n |`u kj |h` zg} ngmi`u g}`bk| }` i`zgb| u nbe` |h` `u| nd g|`u kj ZG] ek`j j ne n`b| u sn i i m` ekbunu|`b| `z`b s h`b bn | }k k| u g}` p}`u`b| (u``Egbkzg) =?? 3."

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

24/84==

gbl uk kb" Jk} d kb`~ |h ` nb |`}p} `|g| nkb kj g dkb `~ l`dgbl$| ~p` }` ig| nkbuhnp nu ekbunu|`b |s n |h }gba nbc dkb`~ igu| " 7?

m" Ekbu|}e| nkb kj uhkea nbe nl`be` gbl nb|`bun |~ zg} ngmi`

\h` u`ekbl u|`p gj| `} | h` nl`b| n j neg| nkb kj CL_ uhkeau nu |k u` |h `d |k ekbu|} e| u`} n`u kjk|p| uhkeau guukeng|`l sn|h `geh u`e|k}gi munb`uu e~ei` phgu` a" \hnu hgu m``b lkb`unbc |h` jk i iksnbc p} ke`l}` 6

7 " \ga` `geh u`pg}g|` nl`b|nj n`l u`e|k}gi munb`uu e~ei` phgu` a (|hg| nu) lksb|}b gblp | }b .

= " Edig|` |h` `u| ndg|`l u|}e|}g i }`u nlgiu nb l n j j`}`be`u (u nbe` |h` ZG] sgu`u| nd g|`l nb i`z`iu. uk | hg| | k `geh Xnf a k} Xglf nf a ek}}`upkblu g ed ig| nz` uhkea Unf ac nz`b m ~6

jk} g i i a ) l`j nb`l m~ ekbu`e| nz` p`gau gbl |}kchu) ueh |hg|) jk} lksb|}bu |h`u|g } | k j ph gu` a nu |h` w g} |` } g j |` } | h` p`ga ) gbl |h` `bl nu |h` j k i iksnbc | }k ch1s h n i` jk } p | }bu |h` u|g } | k j phgu` a nu |h` wg} | ` } g j |` } |h` | }kch) gbl | h` `bl nu|h` j k i iksnbc p`ga"

5 " Unf a 9 ? nbl neg|`u g lksb| }b nb |h` `}k g }`g gbl Unf a 2 ? gb p |}b nb |h` `}k g }`g"< " \h` U zg}ngmi` nu u`l gu | h` uhkea zg}ngmi` nb | h` `ekbk d `| }ne gbgi~unu |h g| jk iiks u"

5"8>. nl`b| n j neg| nkb d`|hkl shneh ndpku`u ikbc$|`}d }`u|} ne | nkbu ( |hg| l nu | nbcnuh m`|s``b p`}dgb`b| gbl | }gbun |k}~ uhkeau.) }g|h`} |hgb |h` uhk}| $ |`}d}`u|} ne| nkb u ndpk u`l m~ |h` Ehki`ua n jge|k } nvg| nkb ) gbl l nueuu hks |h` }`ui |u ehgbc`"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

25/84

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

26/84=NB\ 7> @i`e|} ne @wnpd` b| >0 gbl =??8" G pkun | nz`ek`jj ne n`b| guukeng|`l sn|h |h` nb |`}ge| nkb m`|s``b |h` l`m|$ |k$CL_ }g| nku skil nblneg|`

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

29/84=3

|hg| u`e|k}u nb ekb|} n`u sn|h g sk}u` uu|g nbgmn i n |~ pkun | nkb }`upkbl dk}` |k uhkeau gblg}` |h`} `jk}` i`uu }`un i n`b|" N | nu pkuunm i` |k g}c` |hg| |h nu s kil m ` g }`gukbgmi` p} nk } jk}|h nu ek`jj ne n`b| ) unbe` iks`} l`m| i`z`iu c nz` m`| |`} gee`uu |k j nbgbeng i d g}a`|u |k udk k| h | h`nd pge| kj uhkeau) gbl g i iks jk } d k}` }kk d j k} uhk}| $ |`}d u|gmn i nvg| nk b pki ne n`u" Kb |h ` k|h`}hgbl) g b`cg| nz` ek`jj ne n`b| ekil m` `xpig nb`l n j ekb| } n`u s n|h h nch l`m| i`z`iu g}` |hk u`

unbc j nuegi pki ne~ dk}` ge| nz` i~ |k uppk}| |h`n} u`e|k}u nb |h` uhk}| }b) |h`}`jk}`udkk|hnbc munb`uu e~ei` phgu`u) `z`b n j |h nu egb m` l`|} nd`b|g i jk} ikbc |`}d c}ks|h) guukd ` c}ks |h u| ln`u hgz` }`pk }|`l (u``b jk} nbu|gbe` Jnueh`}) 7>>5"7=

Gu g d`gu}` k j k p`bb`uu |k |}gl` (kp`b.) s` u` |h` gz`}gc` ge}kuu 7>>0 gbl =? ?8 ( jk}ekbunu|`be~ sn|h |h` j nuegi uu|g nbgmn i n |~ nbl neg|k}. kj ekb|} n`u ndpk}|u gbl `xpk}|u kjckklu gbl u`}zne`u gu g p`}e`b|gc` |k CL_" G pkun| nz` ek`jjnen`b| guukeng|`l sn|h |h`nb|`}ge| nkb m`|s``b kp`bb`uu gbl |h` uhkea) skil nblneg|` |hg| u`e|k}u nb ekb|} n`u |hg|g}` dk}` kp`b |k `x|`}bgi | }gl` g}` dk}` `xpku`l |k uhkeau) gbl |h`}`jk}` i`uu }`u n i n`b|)m| g b`cg| nz` ek`jj ne n`b| ekil g iuk m` fu| n j ngm i` m~ |h` jge| |h g| nb ekb| } n`u d k}` kp`b |k| }gl`) u`e|k }u hgz` |k m` d k}` ` j j nen`b | nb k }l`} | k ekd p`|` nb s k} il d g}a` |u "

Gu g p}kx~ jk} j nbgbengi l`z`ikpd `b| ( j nbl `z. s` u` }g| nku kj d g}a`| egpn|g i nvg| nkb | k CL_)giuk gz`}gc`l ge}kuu 7>>0 gbl =??8" ]`ig| nz` |k j nbgbengi l`z`ikpd `b| n | nu d k}` p igunm i`|k `xp`e| g b`cg| nz` ek`jj ne n`b| guukeng|`l sn|h |h` nb |`}ge| nkb m`|s``b j nbgbeng il`z`ikpd`b| gbl |h` uhkea) u nbe` |h`u` skil d`gb g iks`} ek}}` ig| nkb |k uhkeau) gbl|h `}`jk}` d k}` }`u n i n`be`) nb ekb| } n`u sh`}` gee`uu |k j nb gbeng i d g}a`|u nu gun`}) m| n | nupkuunm i` |h g| | h nu zg} ngmi` dg~ g iuk m` egp| } nbc | h` ekb| } n`u c ikmgi nvg| nkb) gbl | h`}`jk }``xpku}` |k `x|`}bgi uhkeau"

Jnbgi i~ ) s ` ekbunl`} | h}`` g i |`}b g| nz` d `gu}`u kj igmk} d g}a`| nbu| n | | nkb u" \h` j n }u | (`pi.nu |h` K@EL Nbl`x kj Igmk} D g}a`| ]`cig| nkbu1 |h ` u`ekbl (mg}c7. nu gb nblneg|k} kj

ek ii`e| nz` mg}cgnb nbc pks`} d `gu} nbc |h` u |g | | k }~ p }k | `e| nkb gbl pks `} k j b nkbu1 s h n i`|h` |h n}l (mg}c=. nu g dk}` ekdp}`h`bunz` nblneg|k} kj ek i i`e| nz` mg}cgnb nbc pks`}d `gu} nbc | h` p}k |`e| nkb kj ek i i`e| nz` }` ig| nkb u igsu gu |h ` gz`}gc` kj6 ( n . igmk} b nkb pks `}gbl ( n n . ek i i`e| nz` l nup|`u" \h` |s k nblneg|k}u kj ek i i`e| nz` mg}cgnb nbc pks `} s `}` km| g nb`lj }kd Mk|`}k ` | g i" (=??>8) =??5) gbl =??81 igm`i`l pd }| nb|h` gbgi~u nu |hg| jk i iksu" 75 \hnu d `gu}` }`j i`e|u gb gz`}gc` kj nbl neg|k }u kj u |g|` ekb| }k iu( nbe ilnbc u|g|` ksb`}uhnp gbl ekb|}k i }`cig| nkb.1 mg}} n`}u |k `b|}`p}`b`}uhnp ( nbe ilnbc}`cig|k}~ gbl gldnbnu|}g| nz` kpgen|~ 1 m}l`bu kb u|g}|$pu) gbl mg}} n`}u |k ekdp`|n | nkb.1

7= S ` hgz` giuk `u| nd g|`u kj |h ` d kl`i u nbc |h` l `j ne n| $ |k $CL_ }g| nk gu g d`gu}` k j j nuegi uu|gnbgmn i n|~ ) m||h` }`ui |u jk} |h nu zg} ngmi` p}kz`l | k m ` i`uu }kmu| " \h`u` g}` gzgn igmi` pkb }`w`u| "75

S` giuk | } n`l u nbc g bkb$| nd` zg}~ nbc d`gu}` kj p}kle| dg}a`| }`cig| nkbu m~ u nbc `geh kj |h nunblneg|k}u u`pg}g|`i~ nb |h` gbgi~u nu ) gbl giuk |h` gz`}gc` kj |h` |h}``) gbl |h` }`ui |u lk bk| ehgbc`uncbnj negb|i~"

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

30/84=8

gbl mg}} n`}u |k |}gl` gbl nbz`u|d`b| ( nbe ilnbc |g} n j ju ) l nue} ndnbg|k}~ p}ke`l}`u) mg}} n`}u|k JLN) gbl }`cig|k}~ mg}} n`}u. " Nb |h`k}~) |h` ek`jj ne n`b| kb |h` nb |`}ge| nkb m`|s``bp}k le| d g}a`| }`cig| nkbu gbl uhkeau ekil m` `xp`e|`l | k m` pk un | nz`6 u|} ne |`} }`cig| nkbu}`le` |h` gmn i n |~ kj u`e|k}u |k glgp| |k uhkeau) ndpi~ nbc g h nch`} ek}}` ig| nkb m`|s``bk| p| ehgbc`u gbl uhkeau) gbl | h`}`jk }` i`uu }`un i n`be`" Hks `z`}) u|} ne | }`cig| nkb u ekil

giuk m` sk}a nbc gu g jk}d kj p}k|`e| nkbnud nbuig| nbc nb`jj ne n`b| u`e|k}u j}kd |h` ndpge| kjuhkeau) }`bl`} nbc |h`d dk}` }`u n i n`b|) `z`b n j |h` n} p}kup`e|u jk} uu|g nbgmi` ikbc |`}dc}ks |h g}` iks " Gu g i |`}bg| nz` d`gu}`u kj p}kle| d g}a`| }`cig| nkbu s` g iuk ekbunl`} |h `=??> S k}il Mgba Lknbc Munb`uu }gbanbc (lm7.) shneh egb m` nb| `}p}`| `l nb | h` ugd ` s g~ gu|h ` pd }| ) unbe` g iks zgi` d `gbu g m`|| `} }gbanbc nb |`}d u kj ekbln| nkbu jk} m unb`uu`u |kkp`} g|`) s hn i` g h nch zgi` nd pi n`u g sk} u` }gbanbc (s k}u` munb`uu ekbl n| nkb u." \h` LknbcMunb`uu }gbanbcu }`j i`e| |h ` gz`}gc` kj ekb| } ~ p`} jk}d gbe`u kb zg} nku nblneg|k}u gcc}`cg|`lnb|k bnb` m} kgl eg|`ck} n`u) sh neh nbeil`6 u|g} | nbc g munb`uu) l`gi nbc s n |h ekbu| }e| nkb p`} d n |u)}`cnu|`}nbc p}kp`}|~) c`|| nbc e}`ln| ) p}k|`e| nbc nbz`u|k}u) pg~nbc |gx`u) | }glnbc ge}kuu mk}l`}u)`bjk}enbc ekb|}ge|u gbl eikunbc g munb`uu" 7< Jnbgi i~ s` g iuk | `u| g up`enj neg| nkb nb s hneh s `u` gu g d`gu}` kj p }kl e| d g}a`| }`cig| nkbu |h` D g}apu u| nd g|`l m~ E} nu|k pk ik gblZ`}d `i`b (=??8.) s hneh l nu| nb cnuh m`| s ``b |s k p`} nk lu6 7>87$7>>=1 gbl 7>>5$=?? }gbanbcu g}` u`l m`egu` |h`u` g}` d k}` ekbunu|`b | s n |h|h` }`u | k j | h` ugdp i` "

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

31/84=>

8?W7 |k =?7 ?W=" Jk} =$l nc n | nblu|}~ umu`e|k}u |h` k| p|lg|g gzgn igmi` nu dku| i~ zk id` nbl`x`u" \k ekbu|}e| ekb|}~ gbl u`e|k} s`nch|u s`gz`}gc` |h` gzgn igmi` lg|g kb k|p| g| ekbu|gb| p} ne`u m`|s``b 7>>> gbl =??:) jk} `gehekb|}~ "70 H`be` |h` s`nch|u ek}}`upkbl |k |h` }g| nk m`|s``b |h`u` ekb|}~ gz`}gc`u gbl|h ` gz`}gc`u jk} | h` }` i`zgb| |k |g i "

Nb \gmi` 5 s ` uhks |h` ekd pku n| nkb k j ekb| } n`u k | p | m~ nblu| }~ umu`e|k} ) `u| nd g|`lunbc |h nu p}ke`l}`" Sn|h nb nblu|}~ n |u` i j kb` egb kmu`}z` gcgnb u nv`gmi` l n j j`}`be`uge}kuu ekb|} n`u) jk} `xgdpi` nb jkkl (=% nb |h` PA) 8 p`}e`b| nb Jnb igbl ekdpg}`l sn|hg}kbl =? p`}e`b| nb L`bdg}a) N }` igbl) B`|h`} igblu gbl _kigbl) gbl

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

32/84

7/31/2019 EU. Macroeconomic Resilience of Industrial Sectors

33/8457

\gmi` < uhksu) jk} `geh u`e|k}) |h` gz`}gc` bdm`} kj |}b nbc pknb|u nl`b| n j n`l m~ ekb|}~( |hg | nu |h` |k |g i bdm`} k j | }b nbc pk nb |u nl`b | n j n`l nb |k |g i l nz nl`l m~ |h` bdm`} k jekb| } n`u."\h` u~beh}kbnvg| nkb kj | }b nbc pk nb| u ge}kuu ekb| } n`u gbl u`e|k}u gpp`g}u |k m`}` ig | nz` i~ iks) gu nbl neg |`l m~ |h` z`}~ l n j j` }`b | bdm`} k j | }b nbc pk nb |u jkbl sn |h nbundn ig } | nd` p`} nklu (` "c " |km geek hgu 0 | }b nbc pk nb |u s n |h nb | h` p`} nkl 7>87$=??>1 sh n i`d`|gi p}kle|u gbl mgune d`|giu hgz` 3 gbl > e~ei`u }`p`e| nz` i~ kz`} |h` ugd` p`} nkl1gbl `z`b d k}` u ncbn j negb| l n j j`}`be`u uhks p ge}kuu ekb| } n`u."

\gmi` 8=+W7 =??8+W+ W7

?< \kmgeek 0 7>87+W5 =??>+W7?0 \`x| n i`u 3 7>8?+ W< =??8+ W=?: S `g} nbc Gppg}` i : 7>8?+W< =??8+W