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4
1. ADRIA REGION
8 Countries / 25M citizens
7 nations & 7 official languages
6 currencies
4 countries on the refugees route
3 big religions
2 letters
1 Nikola TESLA
5
1. ADRIA REGION
Negative:
• WW1 started in Sarajevo (Bosnia - 1914)
• Last war in Europe took place there
• Balkan refugee routes
• Low GDP growth
• High unemployment rate
Positive:
• Tennis, basketball, football, water ball, handball, …
• Adriatic sea,…..
6
1. ADRIA REGION
GDP
per capita PPP 2012 2013 2014 % of EU
EU 28 34.950 35.300 36.200 100%
Albania 9.667 9.926 10.429 29%
Bosna 9.370 9.550 9.923 27%
Croatia 21.114 21.351 21.252 59%
Kosovo* 8.388 8.613 8.804 24%
Macedonia 11.874 12.468 13.142 36%
Montenegro 13.589 14.136 14.323 40%
Serbia 12.806 13.020 12.660 35%
Slovenia 28.450 28.859 29.917 83%
World Bank, Eurostat
GDP per capita, PPP (current international $),
*Est 2012, 2013
7
1. ADRIA REGION
GDP growth (annual %)
2012 2013 2014
EU 28 -0,5 0,2 1,4
Slovenia -2,6 -1,0 2,6
Croatia -2,2 -0,9 -0,4
Kosovo -3,0 8,7 2,8
Macedonia -0,5 2,7 3,8
Montenegro -2,5 3,3 1,5
Serbia -1,0 2,6 -1,8
Albania 1,6 1,4 1,9
Bosnia & Herzegovina -1,2 2,5 1,2
World Bank - annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices based on constant
local currency. Aggregates are based on constant 2005 U.S. dollars.
Eurostat
8
2. EU CBS IN ADRIA REGION
Slovenia: since 1995 CSO
Croatia: IPSOS
• Consumer since 1999 (started by Croatian Central Bank)
• Business since May 2008
Macedonia: since May 2008 IPSOS
Montenegro: since May 2012 IPSOS & CBM / ISSP
(possible changes from 2016)
Serbia: since may 2012 CSO
Albania: coming soon (may 2016) Open, evaluation process in place
Bosna & Herzegovina and Kosovo: not yet
9
2. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS
Serbia and Montenegro still do not publish results (to short period)
Slovenia:
• results are regularly and professionally published by CSO
• Paper: „Finanace” (regularly); „Delo” (occasionally)
• TV stations (occasionally): RTV Slo, POP TV, Planet TV
• WEB sites (regularly): siol.net, sta.si, rtvslo.si, 24ur.com
Main users:
• Central Bank of Slovenia („Bilten”)
• UMAR - Office for macroeconomic analysis („Economic mirror”)
10
1. PUBLISHING & USAGE OF RESULTS
Croatia (since 2008):
• results are regularly and professionally published by Croatian
National Bank (partner in BCS in Croatia)
• very occasionally by daily paper
Main users (still very passive, test mode):
• Croatian National Bank
• Institute of Economics, Zagreb
Macedonia (since 2008):
• results are regularly and professionally published by National
Bank of the Republic of Macedonia
11
2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Industry Reference series* BCS survey data **
Volume of Ind.
Production - monthly INDU
1 Slovenia Yes Yes
2 Croatia Yes Yes
3 Macedonia Yes Yes
4 Montenegro Yes Yes
5 Serbia Yes No
6 Albania No No
7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No
8 Kosovo No No
* Eurostat
** European Commission
12
2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Retail trade Reference series* BCS survey data **
Turnover and volume of sales in
retail trade - monthly data RETA
1 Slovenia Yes Yes
2 Croatia Yes Yes (2008)
3 Macedonia No Yes (2008)
4 Montenegro Yes Yes (2012)
5 Serbia Yes No
6 Albania No No
7 Bosnia & Herzegovina Yes No
8 Kosovo No No
* Eurostat
** European Commission
13
2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Services Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data **
Turnover in services
- monthly data
Turnover in services
- quarterly data SERV
1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes
2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008)
3 Macedonia No Yes Yes (2008)
4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012)
5 Serbia No Yes No
6 Albania No No No
7
Bosnia &
Herzegovina No Yes No
8 Kosovo No No No
* Eurostat Database
** EU Commission
14
2. AVAILABILITY OF BCS IN ADRIA
Building Reference series* Reference series* BCS survey data **
Production in
construction -
monthly data
Production in
construction -
quarterly data BUIL
1 Slovenia Yes Yes Yes
2 Croatia No Yes Yes (2008)
3 Macedonia Yes Yes Yes (2008)
4 Montenegro No Yes Yes (2012)
5 Serbia No Yes No
6 Albania No No No
7 Bosnia & Herzegovina No Yes No
8 Kosovo No No No
* Eurostat
** European Commission
15
3. MCD – REF. MONTHLY SERIES
Country INDU RETAIL
European Union (28) 4 4
Croatia 3 3
Slovenia 4 4
Montenegro 6 6
Macedonia 5 5
Serbia 3 3
16
3. MCD – BCS, MONTHLY
EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
INDU 1 2 3 3 3
SERV 2 2 2 4 6
CONS 2 4 4 4 5
RETA 2 4 4 4 5
BUIL 2 2 2 4 6
ESI 1 2 2 3 NA
17
4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
INDU EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
coincident 0,933 0,842 0,702 0,732 0,067
lead 1 0,927 0,885 0,691 0,721 -0,030
lead 2 0,897 0,893 0,711 0,651 -0,101
Ref., monthly index - 2008 May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted
INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted
18
4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
Retail EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
coincident 0,760 0,744 0,792 NA 0,071
lead 1 0,788 0,767 0,770 NA 0,049
lead 2 0,764 0,801 0,776 NA -0,071
Ref., monthly index - 2008 May / 2015 Aug, y to y-1 difference, seasonally adjusted
INDU, monthly, seasonally adjusted
19
4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
Source of Ref series :Eurostat
Volume index of production in construction, - quarterly data; y – y-1
Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days
BSC: quarterly average
BUIL EU 28 Slovenia Croatia Macedonia Montenegro
coincident 0,68 0,89 0,91 0,20 0,76
lead 1 0,83 0,86 0,86 0,17 0,80
lead 2 0,82 0,72 0,70 0,27 0,82
20
4. CORRELATION BCS – REF. SERIES
Serv EU 28 Slovenia Croatia
coincident 0,79 0,63 0,91
lead 1 0,54 0,55 0,78
lead 2 0,18 0,28 0,48
Source of Ref series :Eurostat
Index of turnover in services - quarterly data, y – y-1
Seasonally adjusted and adjusted data by working days
BSC: quarterly average
21
CONSUMER SURVEY SEPTEMBER 2015
September 2015, Monthly Questions EU 28 SI HR ME MK BH
Confidence Indicator (Q2 + Q4 - Q7 + Q11) / 4 -5,5 -5,2 -21,5 -19,6 -5,3 -31,48
Financial situation over last 12 months -7,0 -16,3 -20,0 -17,9 -16,0 -19,09
Financial situation over next 12 months 0,6 -3,4 -5,1 3,4 8,6 -7,80
General economic situation over last 12 months -11,1 -21,7 -28,4 -23,7 -18,7 -45,94
General economic situation over next 12
months -4,9 2,1 -8,4 -5,1 4,2 -34,97
Price trends over last 12 months -3,8 -1,2 18,1 15,0 21,0 22,94
Price trends over next 12 months 5,0 -3,4 1,0 -10,0 1,2 16,29
Unemployment expectations over next 12
months 16,3 3,1 21,6 18,5 1,5 31,59
Major purchases at present -0,7 -23,1 -34,8 -51,3 -44,8 -42,07
Major purchases over next 12 months -15,0 -12,6 -28,0 -36,3 -30,1 -31,35
Savings at present 7,3 -23,4 -31,9 -45,7 -6,6 -40,19
Savings over next 12 months -1,2 -16,3 -51,0 -58,3 -32,4 -51,56
Statement on financial situation of household 16,3 21,9 -13,5 -0,6 -7,4 -9,11
We finished one way of Consumer Survey in Bosnia and Herzegovina and
we got results for the same period from CSO of Serbia