eThekwini on the Edge?

A short discussion document prepared by the City Planning Commission

Purpose

• To stimulate discussion and debate about the situation facing Durban city-region.

• A selective assessment to inform a fuller diagnostic which will form the basis for a long-term plan.

• The audience: all role players with an interest in the region - not simply eThekwini Municipality.

• Key question: does this adequately capture the key challenges and opportunities facing the city-region?

Risks and uncertainties

• Severe hardship and conspicuous inequality. • Social discontent and unrest. • Economic squeeze causing unemployment, strained household and municipal finances.

• Difficulties in rationing the provision of housing and free basic services.

• Sluggish private investment and job creation. • Continuing urban segregation and fragmentation. • People are forced to travel further than ever, on an unreliable and obsolete transport system.

• Many ordinary citizens anxious about the future

Business-as-usual cannot continue

• Risks of entering a cycle of decline where pressures and problems reinforce each other.

• Recent outbreaks of xenophobia illustrate the consequences of intensified stress.

• Experience everywhere shows that communities whose hopes and livelihoods are threatened become more introspective and nationalistic.

• Durban’s collective failure to build a more inclusive and tolerant community has serious repercussions for the city’s image, stability and prosperity.

5

Risk of a vicious cycle

Economic stagnation, fewer jobs

Strained household &

municipal finances

Social problems; harder to

ration new housing & services

Growing discontent,

unrest & protests

Loss of talent,

Lack of investment

We need to find common purpose

• In conditions of economic distress and social instability, individuals and organisations don’t make long-term plans or invest in the city.

• A collective effort is required to envision a more promising future and to galvanise the whole community to get behind it.

• Durban has core strengths and a proven record of successful delivery.

• The National Treasury wants cities to step up a gear and become ‘engines of prosperity’.

National support

• Minister Nene said: “realising the economic dividends of urban growth requires a new approach to providing infrastructure, housing and public transport services, while overcoming the spatial divisions of apartheid” (2015 Budget speech).

• Government wants the metros to unlock the potential of cities by investing in infrastructure and stronger partnerships with the private sector.

• A long-term growth and development strategy can help.

Key indicators

  eThekwini Cape Town Jo’burg Tshwane Ekurhuleni

Population growth rate 2001-2011

11% 29% 37% 36% 28%

Employment rate 2011

41% 50% 53% 51% 49%

Growth in employment 2001-2011

27% 38% 56% 52% 48%

Average household income 2011

R113,000 R162,000 R183,000 R183,000 R126,000

Source: Statistics SA: 2001 and 2011 census of population

Recent history

• In 1996, Jeff McCarthy and Ann Bernstein said Durban was “the country's most promising global competitor” because of its location, political pragmatism and quality of business leaders.

• To realise its potential, Durban had to get rid of its parochialism, build on its ethnic diversity and start thinking globally.

• The municipality had to take the economy more seriously and do more to attract private investment through good services and creative leadership

But

• The city was held back by the continuing political turmoil and violent conflict across KZN.

• This deterred and repelled business, professional and political talent from the region.

• Two other drags on Durban’s progress have been: • the limited presence of government departments and corporate head offices

• the high incidence of HIV-Aids (affecting health, life expectancy and productivity)

eThekwini Metro

• The creation of the metro was a bold step.• Durban Corporation had financial reserves that could be put to socially-useful purposes.

• But the metro inherited bigger demands on its rates base than any other metro because of the large service backlogs in its extensive rural hinterland.

• The strategic opportunities available to the new metro were set against the risk that its core focus and tax base would get undermined by the pressures of rural and township redress.

Extensive service delivery

• eThekwini has an impressive record of rolling out water, sanitation, waste collection and electricity to under-served communities.

• Admirable commitment to innovation – e.g. shared ablution blocks, low pressure water systems and urine diversion toilets (2014 Stockholm Industry Water Award)

• Between 2001 and 2011, • 154,000 more households got a tap inside their dwelling (up 37%)• 101,000 more households got access to a flush toilet (up 20%). • 65,500 fewer households were without electricity (down 40%).

• But can this growth be sustained?

Record housing provision

• During the 2000s, eThekwini built 10-16,000 houses a year• One of the largest programmes of free housing for the poor

that any city in the world has ever delivered!• Received the Govan Mbeki Award for outstanding delivery.• But 150,000 households (one in six) still live in shacks,

almost the same number as in 2001 • Informal settlements and hostels present big challenges,

though the metro has positive experience of upgrading• Providing free housing costs R250-300,000 per unit • Serious rationing problems• Housing policy needs a radical rethink

Economic and social stress

• The municipal wage bill has grown steadily: • Durban Corp. employed 13,800 permanent staff in 1997 • eThekwini Municipality had 19,500 (2005) & 24,900 (2014) • Only 41% of adults has a job (51% in the other metros). • Hence few earners in each household. • Average incomes are 30% lower than in other metros.• Loss of skills and talent to Gauteng• Durban’s assets: port and airport; logistics; facilities for events and tourism; go-ahead firms; automotive sector

• What are Durban’s competitive strengths & weaknesses?

• Ethekwini needs much stronger partnerships

Urban fragmentation

• Dispersed urban form creates inefficiencies and exclusion.

• New development over last 15 years has extended low density sprawl and made inefficient use of land.

• Building on the periphery is costly in terms of bulk infrastructure - who should pay?

• Durban’s modest rate of household growth means that the case for launching new cities or up-market housing schemes is weak

• Neglected central city needs focused attention

Environmental challenges

• Urban sprawl and pollution have damaged sensitive watercourses and reduced biodiversity

• Looming crisis of wastewater treatment• High level of water losses• Surplus from electricity sales will become less important

• Durban Metro Open Space System is highly regarded• Also Working for Ecosystems, Working on Fire, and Community Reforestation

• Global ‘100 Resilient Cities Programme’ good platform for peer review

City governance

• Need a shared vision for the city-region across many different role-players

• Metro needs to rebuild trust in citizens and work in partnership with others

• Many internal and external tensions need to be addressed

• Strong tendency to work in silos• Limited tradition of evidence-based policy• Lack of a coherent strategy for long-term development of the city-region

Particular gaps in knowledge

1. Understanding Durban’s economy and the bottlenecks to investment and growth

2. Deeper knowledge of the quality of life and subjective well-being

3. A better understanding of the urbanisation process

4. A greater appreciation of how to improve the developmental impact of household services

5. Understanding how to make efficient use of land

6. Improved knowledge of the shifting spatial economy

7. Appreciation of how to improve city governance and leadership

Emerging questions: 1

Is this document correct in suggesting that the city-region is not realising its potential and is on a precarious trajectory? Are there any glaring omissions in the analysis? Do you agree that bold ideas and experimentation are required from many role-players to tackle the socio-economic, spatial and environmental problems? What do you think needs to be done to manage a transition from business-as-usual? What are the main things that would help Durban to function better as a city? What could restore the image and reputation of Durban and some of its institutions following recent problems?

Emerging questions: 2

Is it fair to say that the city’s fortunes are not just a local matter, but have significant implications for the province and indeed for the country as a whole? What can be done to ensure that Durban’s influence on the prosperity of KwaZulu-Natal and South Africa is properly recognised at provincial and national levels? What more should the provincial and national governments do to assist Durban?

Emerging questions: 3

Is there a need for greater economic literacy and understanding among decision-makers? Do you agree that economic development and job creation are fundamental to the future well-being of local citizens? What is distinctive about Durban’s economy? What opportunities exist to strengthen the city’s economy, encourage productive activity, and boost jobs and livelihoods? What role(s) should the Municipality play to stimulate additional investment and jobs?

Emerging questions: 4

How can greater trust and cohesion be built among the diverse population – from the bottom and the top? What can be done to help citizens play a more active role in tackling the complex challenges of their communities? How can people’s resourcefulness and social networks be strengthened for the benefit of the city as a whole? How important is it to attract and retain talent, and what should be done?

Emerging questions: 5

Is the current pattern of fragmented and informal development of urban land sustainable? How could the benefits of urbanisation be optimised? Can you envisage a more compact city within a more integrated city-region? What are the implications of the northern drift of investment and jobs, and how could it be counter-balanced? How should the city protect and restore vital natural systems, strengthen food security and prepare for more constrained water, energy and other resources in the future?

Emerging questions: 6

What can be done to establish more supportive relationships and shared agendas between different institutions in the region? How can the energy and resources of key stakeholders in government, business, labour and civil society be mobilised for joint action to address the systemic challenges facing the city, and to navigate a more uncertain future collectively?

Emerging questions: 7

What are the respective roles of the KZN Province, state entities and eThekwini Municipality in forging a new development path for Durban? Does urbanisation mean that more responsibilities and resources should be transferred to the Municipality over time to facilitate integrated planning? What could and should eThekwini do differently if it had more control over housing policy? And what should it do about the public transport system?

Emerging questions: 8

How could the Municipality strengthen its own capacity, resources and leadership to accelerate economic and social progress and spatial transformation? What kinds of partnerships should it create, and with whom? What issues have been neglected to date and deserve more attention? Which other cities in SA and elsewhere have valuable experiences that Durban could learn from?

Emerging questions: 9

What contribution can you and your organisation make to shaping the city’s future?