Estimating the Immigrant Stock in the United States by Legal Status using

Administrative and Census Data

United Nations Expert Group Meeting onMeasuring International Migration: Concepts and Methods

December 4-7, 2006

Office of Immigration StatisticsPOLICY DIRECTORATE

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Introduction

• Data on the size and characteristics of immigrants by legal status are needed by policy and decision makers, yet legal status is not routinely collected in U.S. surveys

• Millions of immigrants are residing in the U.S. without authorization

• More than half of legal immigrants “admitted” during recent years adjusted from a temporary or unauthorized status from within the U.S.

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Outline

1. Estimates of U.S. immigrants by legal status

2. Methodology used to estimate the number of unauthorized residents (which includes estimation of legal residents as well)

3. Unauthorized estimates

• Results

• Limitations and sources of error

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Immigrant Stock by Legal Status

Legal Status (Jan. 2005) Estimate Percent

Total Foreign Born Residents 38.4 100.0

Legal residents 27.9 72.7

Lawful permanent residents (LPRs) 11.6 30.2

Refugees and asylees 0.3 0.8

Nonimmigrant residents 1.4 3.6

Naturalized citizens 14.7 38.2

Unauthorized residents 10.5 27.3

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Background - Unauthorized

• Estimates assembled by integrating data from different sources

• Estimates based on many assumptions – some with high degrees of uncertainty

• Unauthorized residents refer to foreign-born persons living in the United States who entered without inspection (EWI) or who were admitted temporarily and stayed past the date they were required to leave (overstayers)

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Methodology and Data

Methodology and Data

• Used a “residual” method developed by immigration researchers at the Census Bureau in the early 1980s

• Unauthorized population

= total foreign-born - legally resident population

• Assumed all immigrants who entered the United States before 1980 were legally resident

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Methodology and Data continued

• The foreign born population in 2005 was estimated from the 2004 American Community Survey (ACS)

– Tabulations: 1) year of entry by country of birth and 2) year of entry by state of residence

• The legally resident immigrant population in 2005 was estimated primarily from DHS administrative data (LPRs, refugees, asylees, and nonimmigrants)

– Tabulations: 1) year of entry and country of birth and 2) year of entry by state of residence

• Year of entry provides a bridge between Census survey data and DHS administrative data

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Legal Residents

• Legal permanent residents (LPRs)– Matched individual records of immigration and

naturalization• Refugees and asylees (not LPRs)

– Recent refugee arrivals and those granted asylee status – Refugees and asylees may apply for LPR status after 1

in refugee or asylee status• Nonimmigrant residents

– Includes temporary migrants typically staying more than 2 months

– “Person Year” methodology– (Number of admissions X average length of stay) / 365

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Adjustments to Data

ACS (2004) / Additions

• Shift reference date to January 1, 2005

• Group Quarters• Undercounts

– Unauthorized (10%)– Legally Resident (2.5%)– Nonimmigrants (10%)

Legal Residents / Deductions

• Emigrants• Deaths

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Results

• The unauthorized immigrant population in the United States increased 24 percent from 8.5 million on January 1, 2000 to 10.5 million on January 1, 2005

• The annual average increase during 2000 to 2005 was 408,000. Assuming a continuation of this increase, the unauthorized immigrant population would have been nearly 11 million in January, 2006

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Country of Birth

• Mexico was the leading source country with nearly 6.0 million unauthorized residents in the United States in 2005, and an annual average increase of 260,000 during 2000 to 2005

Guatemala4%

El Salvador4%

India3%

China2%

Other countries

30%

Mexico57%

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State of Residence

• California was home to more unauthorized residents than any other state

• The states with the greatest percentage increases in unauthorized immigrants from 2000 to 2005 were Georgia (114 percent), Arizona (45 percent), Nevada (41 percent), and North Carolina (38 percent)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CA TX FL NY IL AZ GA NJ NC NV Otherstates

Millions

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Period of Entry

 

 

• A total of 3.1 million unauthorized immigrants in 2005 had lived in the United States 5 years or less

• An estimated 7.4 million unauthorized immigrants in 2005 had been U.S. residents for more than 5 years 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04

Millions

Period of entry

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Limitations and Sources of Error

• Uncertainty in assumptions about undercount of the foreign born population in the ACS and emigration

– Doubling the unauthorized immigrant undercount rate from 10% to 20% increases the estimated unauthorized population from 10.5 to 11.8 million. If there is no undercount then the estimate would be 9.4 million.

– Lowering or raising emigration rates by 20%, lowers/raises the unauthorized population estimate to 10.0/11.0 million.

– Doubling the unauthorized immigrant undercount rate to 20% and lowering/raising emigration rates by 20%, expands the range of the unauthorized immigrant population estimate from 11.2 to 12.4 million.

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Limitations and Sources of Error

• Accuracy of year of entry reporting

– concerns about validity and reliability of Census surveys on year of entry question as well as conversion of DHS administrative dates for legally resident immigrants to year of entry dates

• Assumptions about the nonimmigrant population estimate

– Length of visit and changes in status may not be accurately captured

• Assumptions about internal migration

– the estimates assume no net internal migration of the legally resident immigrant population

• Sampling error in the ACS

– estimated margin of error for the estimate of the foreign born population in the 2004 ACS at the 90 percent confidence level is approximately 250,000

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Michael D. HoeferE-mail: michael.hoefer@dhs.govPhone: (202) 786-9871

Office of Immigration StatisticsE-mail: immigrationstatistics@dhs.govInternet: www.dhs.gov/immigrationstatisticsPhone: (202) 786-9900

The 2005 Yearbook is available inPDF format on the OIS website.

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