Estimating the Discount Rate

P.V. Viswanath

Based on Damodaran’s Corporate Finance

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Inputs required to use the CAPM

According to the CAPM, the required rate of return on an asset will be:

Required ROR = Rf + (E(Rm) - Rf) The inputs required to estimate the required ROR are:

(a) the current risk-free rate

(b) the expected market risk premium (the premium expected for investing in risky assets over the riskless asset)

(c) the beta of the asset being analyzed.

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The Riskfree Rate

The riskfree rate is the rate on a zero coupon government bond matching the time horizon of the cash flow being analyzed.

Theoretically, this means using different riskfree rates for each cash flow - the 1 year zero coupon rate for the cash flow in year 1, the 2-year zero coupon rate for the cash flow in year 2 ...

Practically, if there is substantial uncertainty about expected cash flows, it is enough to use a single riskfree rate for all flows.

Using a long term government rate (even on a coupon bond) as the riskfree rate on all of the cash flows in a long term analysis will yield a close approximation of the true value.

For short term analysis, it is appropriate to use a short term government security rate as the riskfree rate.

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Measurement of the risk premium

The risk premium is the premium that investors demand for investing in an average risk investment, relative to the riskfree rate.

As a general proposition, this premium should be greater than zero increase with the risk aversion of the investors in that

market increase with the riskiness of the “average” risk

investment

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The Historical Premium Approach

This is the default approach used by most to arrive at the premium to use in the model

In most cases, this approach does the following it defines a time period for the estimation (1926-Present, 1962-Present....) it calculates average returns on a stock index during the period

it calculates average returns on a riskless security over the period it calculates the difference between the two and uses it as a premium looking forward

The limitations of this approach are: it assumes that the risk aversion of investors has not changed in a systematic

way across time. (The risk aversion may change from year to year, but it reverts back to historical averages)

it assumes that the riskiness of the “risky” portfolio (stock index) has not changed in a systematic way across time.

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Historical Average Premiums for the United States

Historical period Stocks - T.Bills Stocks - T.Bonds Arith Geom Arith Geom

1926-1999 9.41% 8.14% 7.64% 6.60%1962-1999 7.07% 6.46% 5.96% 5.74%1981-1999 13.24% 11.62% 16.08% 14.17%

In practice, a risk premium of about 5.5% is used. However, depending upon perceptions of investor risk preferences at a given time, this number can be moved upwards or downwards.

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Estimating Beta

The standard procedure for estimating betas is to regress stock returns (Rj) against market returns (Rm) -

Rj = a + b Rm

where a is the intercept and b is the slope of the regression.

Often five years of monthly data is used to estimate these parameters.

The slope of the regression corresponds to the beta of the stock, and measures the riskiness of the stock.

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Estimating Performance

The intercept of the regression provides a simple measure of performance during the period of the regression, relative to the capital asset pricing model. Rj = Rf + j (Rm - Rf)

= Rf (1-j) + Rm ........... Capital Asset Pricing Model

Rj = aj + j Rm ........... Regression Equation

If aj > Rf (1-j) ..Stock did better than expected during reg period

aj = Rf (1-j) ..Stock did as well as expected during regr period

aj < Rf (1-j) ..Stock did worse than expected during reg period

Jensen's alpha, a measure of stock performance, is measure as aj - Rf (1-)

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Example: Estimating Expected Returns

Boeing’s Beta was estimate on December 31, 1998 to be 0.96

Riskfree Rate = 5.00% (Long term Government Bond rate)

Risk Premium = 5.50% (Approximate historical premium)

Expected Return = 5.00% + 0.96 (5.50%) = 10.31%

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How managers use this expected return

Managers at Boeing need to make at least 10.31% as a return for their equity

investors to break even. this is the hurdle rate for projects, when the investment is

analyzed from an equity standpoint

In other words, Boeing’s cost of equity is 10.31%. What is the cost of not delivering this cost of

equity?

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Fundamental Determinants of Betas

Type of Business: Firms in more cyclical businesses or that sell products that are more discretionary to their customers will have higher betas than firms that are in non-cyclical businesses or sell products that are necessities or staples.

Operating Leverage: Firms with greater fixed costs (as a proportion of total costs) will have higher betas than firms will lower fixed costs (as a proportion of total costs)

Financial Leverage: Firms that borrow more (higher debt, relative to equity) will have higher equity betas than firms that borrow less.

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Equity Betas and Leverage

The beta of equity alone can be written as a function of the unlevered beta and the debt-equity ratio

L =

u (1+ (1-t)D/E)

where

L = Levered or Equity Beta

u = Unlevered Beta

t = Corporate marginal tax rateD = Market Value of DebtE = Market Value of Equity

The unlevered beta measures the riskiness of the business that a firm is in and is often called an asset beta.

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Effects of leverage on betas: Boeing

The regression beta for Boeing is 0.96. This beta is a levered beta (because it is based on stock prices, which reflect leverage) and the leverage implicit in the beta estimate is the average market debt equity ratio during the period of the regression (1993 to 1998)

The average debt equity ratio during this period was 17.88%.

The unlevered beta for Boeing can then be estimated:(using a marginal tax rate of 35%)= Current Beta / (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Average Debt/Equity))= 0.96 / ( 1 + (1 - 0.35) (0.1788)) = 0.86

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Boeing : Beta and Leverage

Debt to Debt/Equity Beta EffectCapital Ratio of Leverage

0.00% 0.00% 0.86 0.00 10.00% 11.11% 0.92 0.06 20.00% 25.00% 1.00 0.14 30.00% 42.86% 1.10 0.24 40.00% 66.67% 1.23 0.37 50.00% 100.00% 1.42 0.56 60.00% 150.00% 1.70 0.84 70.00% 233.33% 2.16 1.30 80.00% 400.00% 3.10 2.24 90.00% 900.00% 5.89 5.03

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Betas are weighted Averages

The beta of a portfolio is always the market-value weighted average of the betas of the individual investments in that portfolio.

Thus, the beta of a mutual fund is the weighted average of the

betas of the stocks and other investment in that portfolio the beta of a firm after a merger is the market-value

weighted average of the betas of the companies involved in the merger.

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Firm Betas versus divisional Betas

Firm Betas as weighted averages: The beta of a firm is the weighted average of the betas of its individual projects.

At a broader level of aggregation, the beta of a firm is the weighted average of the betas of its individual division.

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Bottom-up versus Top-down Beta

The top-down beta for a firm comes from a regression The bottom up beta can be estimated by doing the following:

Find out the businesses that a firm operates in Find the unlevered betas of other firms in these businesses Take a weighted (by sales or operating income) average of these unlevered betas Lever up using the firm’s debt/equity ratio

The bottom up beta will give you a better estimate of the true beta when

the standard error of the beta from the regression is high (and) the beta for a firm is very different from the average for the business

the firm has reorganized or restructured itself substantially during the period of the regression

when a firm is not traded

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The Home Depot’s Comparable Firms

Company Name Beta Market Cap $ (Mil) Debt Due 1-Yr Out Long-Term DebtBuilding Materials 1.05 $136 $1 $113Catalina Lighting 1 $16 $7 $19Cont'l Materials Corp 0.55 $32 $2 $7Eagle Hardware 0.95 $612 $6 $146Emco Limited 0.65 $187 $39 $119Fastenal Co. 1.25 $1,157 $16 $ - HomeBase Inc. 1.1 $227 $116Hughes Supply 1 $610 $1 $335Lowe's Cos. 1.2 $12,554 $111 $1,046Waxman Industries 1.25 $18 $6 $121Westburne Inc. 0.65 $607 $9 $34Wolohan Lumber 0.55 $76 $2 $20

Sum $16,232 $200 $2,076Average 0.93

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Estimating The Home Depot’s Bottom-up Beta

Average Beta of comparable firms = 0.93 D/E ratio of comparable firms = (200+2076)/16,232 =

14.01% Unlevered Beta for comparable firms = 0.93/(1+(1-.35)

(.1401))

= 0.86 If the Home Depot’s D/E ratio is 20%, our bottom-up

estimate of Home Depot’s beta is 0.86[1+(1-.35)(.2)] = 0.9718

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From Cost of Equity to Cost of Capital

The cost of capital is a composite cost to the firm of raising financing to fund its projects.

In addition to equity, firms can raise capital from debt. If the firm has bonds outstanding, and the bonds are traded,

the yield to maturity on a long-term, straight (no special features) bond can be used as the interest rate.

If the firm is rated, use the rating and a typical default spread on bonds with that rating to estimate the cost of debt.

If the firm is not rated, and it has recently borrowed long term from a bank, use the interest

rate on the borrowing or estimate a synthetic rating for the company, and use the synthetic

rating to arrive at a default spread and a cost of debt

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Estimating Market Value Weights

Market Value of Equity should include the following Market Value of Shares outstanding Market Value of Warrants outstanding Market Value of Conversion Option in Convertible Bonds

Market Value of Debt is more difficult to estimate because few firms have only publicly traded debt. There are two solutions:

Assume book value of debt is equal to market value Estimate the market value of debt from the book value; for Boeing, the book

value of debt is $6,972 million, the interest expense on the debt is $ 453 million, the average maturity of the debt is 13.76 years and the pre-tax cost of debt is 5.50%.

Estimated MV of Boeing Debt = 453

(1 1

(1.055)13.76

.055

6, 972

(1.055)13.76 $7, 631

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Estimating Cost of Capital: Boeing

Equity Cost of Equity = 5% + 1.01 (5.5%) = 10.58% Market Value of Equity = $32.60 Billion Equity/(Debt+Equity ) = 82%

Debt After-tax Cost of debt = 5.50% (1-.35) = 3.58% Market Value of Debt = $ 8.2 Billion Debt/(Debt +Equity) = 18%

Cost of Capital = 10.58%(.80)+3.58%(.20) = 9.17%

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Choosing a Hurdle Rate

Either the cost of equity or the cost of capital can be used as a hurdle rate, depending upon whether the returns measured are to equity investors or to all claimholders on the firm (capital)

If returns are measured to equity investors, the appropriate hurdle rate is the cost of equity.

If returns are measured to capital (or the firm), the appropriate hurdle rate is the cost of capital.

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Back to First Principles

Invest in projects that yield a return greater than the minimum acceptable hurdle rate.

The hurdle rate should be higher for riskier projects and reflect the financing mix used - owners’ funds (equity) or borrowed money (debt)

Returns on projects should be measured based on cash flows generated and the timing of these cash flows; they should also consider both positive and negative side effects of these projects.

Choose a financing mix that minimizes the hurdle rate and matches the assets being financed.

If there are not enough investments that earn the hurdle rate, return the cash to stockholders.

The form of returns - dividends and stock buybacks - will depend upon the stockholders’ characteristics.