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“Estimating the Cost and Schedule of Technology Advancement for Space Projects”
By Joe Hamaker, PhD Galorath Federal Inc.
2016 NASA Cost Symposium
Glenn Research Center
August 23-25
© 2016 Copyright Galorath Incorporated
•
Estimating Technology Advancement
The current NASA Space Technology Investment Portfolio was used as a database • Specifically, a convenient source
is: Over 50 technologies discussed with charts like the one on the right Deep Space Optical Comm
•
• • $10M and 48 months from TRL 2 to 6
• From that database, we developed cost and schedule estimating relationships (also shown on following chart) using regression analysis • N=49, R2 for cost = 70% and F
and t-tests were all good R2 for schedule estimating relationship was not
•
• Then we applied these relationships to the portfolio of technologies identified by a current study
• $10M and 48 months from TRL 2 to 6
2
Database For TRL Cost and Schedule Estimating Relationships
No. NASA Space Technology Projects TRL Start TRL End Months Cost $M Complexity TRL Delta1 Solar Electric Propulsion 4 9 100 $44 4 52 Green Propellant Infusion Mission 5 7 63 $54 4 23 Evolvable Cryogenics 4 6 66 $13 2 24 Composites for Exploration Upper Stage 5 6 39 $7 2 15 Deep Space Atomic Clock 5 7 71 $30 3 26 Human Robotic Systems 4 6 36 $65 4 27 Human Exploration Telerobotics 2 3 7 36 $11 3 48 In-‐Space Robotic Servicing 2 9 124 $61 4 79 Thermal Protection System Materials 2 6 72 $11 2 410 Entry Systems Modeling 2 7 54 $17 3 511 Advanced Manufacturing Technology 3 6 72 $20 3 312 Nuclear Systems 3 5 72 $17 3 213 Next Generation Life Support 2 6 84 $24 3 414 Deep Space Optical Communications 2 6 72 $11 3 415 Lightweight Materials and Structures 2 4 30 $11 3 216 Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator 2 3 6 12 $32 4 317 In-‐Situ Resource Utilization 4 9 75 $17 4 518 Nanotechnology 3 6 75 $12 3 319 Station Explorer X-‐Ray Timing and Navigation 3 6 87 $14 3 320 Coronograph 3 6 45 $5 2 321 Life Support Systems 3 5 72 $43 4 222 Advanced Spacesuit 3 8 135 $56 4 523 Resource Prospector 3 6 105 $50 4 324 Lander Technology 5 9 36 $11 2 425 Radiation Sensors 3 8 72 $35 4 526 Automated Propellant Loading 4 7 72 $32 4 327 Spacecraft Fire Safety 5 9 63 $38 4 428 Bigelow Expandable Activity Module 7 9 69 $28 5 229 Nuclear Thermal Propulsion 4 4 48 $30 4 030 Exploration Augmentation Module 5 8 18 $13 3 331 Autonomous Mission Operations 5 7 72 $29 3 232 Logistics Reduction and Repurposing 3 7 60 $19 2 433 Modular Power Systems 4 6 84 $23 3 234 Avionics and Software 4 6 60 $8 3 235 Stirling Cycle Technology Development 1 6 84 $9 3 536 Astrophysics Focused Telescope Assets Coronograph 3 6 37 $14 4 337 Large Array Infrared Detectors 4 6 61 $12 4 238 Green Optical Autocovariance Wind Lidar Airborne Demonstrator 3 6 23 $4 2 339 Thermoelectric Technology Development 1 6 60 $4 2 540 Enhanced MultiMission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator 3 7 48 $11 4 441 Auto-‐GOPHER 2 4 6 37 $3 2 242 Subglacial Polar Ice Navigation, Descent, and Lake Exploration 4 5 18 $2 2 143 Affordable and Lightweight High Resolution Astronomical X-‐ray Optics 3 5 13 $6 2 244 ICE Cube 5 7 26 $3 2 245 Compact Solar Spectral Irradiance Monitor 3 7 32 $2 2 446 Midwave Infrared Sounding of Temperature and Humidity in a Constellation 4 6 27 $2 2 247 High Velocity Research 3 4 24 $2 2 148 Triple Pulsed Lidar 3 6 19 $2 2 349 Peregine Engine Development 3 8 60 $7 3 5
3
Applying The Models to Some Technologies
TechnologyCurrent TRL
Basic Complexity of the Technology (1 to 5
with 5 = Very Complex)
Time To TRL 6 (Months from 2016)
$Millions To TRL 6
Autonomous space systems and networks 3 4 66 $31Autonomous ground networks and systems 4 3 45 $13Space Terminal Advances 4 2 33 $4Apertures (RF through Optical, Single and Arrayed) 2 5 87 $59Advanced/Adaptive waveforms (performance enhancement and interference mitigation) 2 5 87 $59Low size, weight, and power open standard commercially driven electronics 3 4 66 $31Spacecraft Advances 3 3 52 $14Distributed SmallSat/CubeSat Options 3 3 52 $14Hosted payloads through open interfaces 4 2 33 $4IP Networked systems 4 2 33 $4Cross-‐linked systems (RF through Optical) 3 4 66 $31Improved Reliability/Service Life 4 3 45 $13Commercial Innovations 4 2 33 $4Common standards 4 2 33 $4Planned technology refresh through long term service agreements 4 2 33 $4Best leverages commercial investment for dual commercial and NASA space communication requirements 4 2 33 $4
4
Technology Investment Cost Estimates Time Phased
Technology
FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 TotalAutonomous space systems and networks $5.5 $8.6 $8.2 $6.0 $2.3 $30.6Autonomous ground networks and systems $3.2 $4.6 $3.7 $1.5 $13.1Space Terminal Advances $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Apertures (RF through Optical, Single and Arrayed) $6.3 $11.5 $11.8 $11.1 $9.2 $6.6 $2.2 $58.8Advanced/Adaptive waveforms (performance enhancement and interference mitigation) $6.3 $11.5 $11.8 $11.1 $9.2 $6.6 $2.2 $58.8Low size, weight, and power open standard commercially driven electronics $4.4 $6.7 $7.4 $6.4 $4.2 $1.7 $30.6Spacecraft Advances $3.5 $5.0 $4.0 $1.6 $14.2Distributed SmallSat/CubeSat Options $3.5 $5.0 $4.0 $1.6 $14.2Hosted payloads through open interfaces $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4IP Networked systems $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Cross-‐linked systems (RF through Optical) $4.4 $6.7 $7.4 $6.4 $4.2 $1.7 $30.6Improved Reliability/Service Life $3.2 $4.6 $3.7 $1.5 $13.1Commercial Innovations $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Common standards $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Planned technology refresh through long term service agreements $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4Best leverages commercial investment for dual commercial and NASA space communication requirements $1.6 $2.0 $0.8 $4.4
Total Technology Investment Estimate (2016$M) $51.5 $78.1 $68.0 $47.2 $29.0 $16.6 $4.4 $294.8
Conclusions and Observations
• Admittedly, the “data” used to develop the model shown here is composed of NASA estimates of the cost and time to advance a few dozen technologies • As these projects proceed costs and schedule could
change…I don’t need to tell this audience
• Obviously, much better data would be composed of completed TRL projects • •
• •
If you have them, could I get a copy?
Meanwhile, the model provided here seems to provide a reasonable representation of NASA’s Space Technology Investment Portfolio
So for the truly desperate, we offer this model With the caveat, use at your own risk
© 2016 Copyright Galorath Incorporated 6