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Dipl.-Ing. Silv. Sebastian Rüter, Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI) Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries Institute for Wood Technology and Wood Biology, Hamburg, Germany. Estimating HWP contribution to Climate Change Mitigation. European Forest Week - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Estimating HWP contribution to Climate Change Mitigation
Dipl.-Ing. Silv. Sebastian Rüter,Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (vTI)Federal Research Institute for Rural Areas, Forestry and Fisheries
Institute for Wood Technology and Wood Biology, Hamburg, Germany
21 October 2008, Rome
European Forest WeekPartner Event “The Role of HWP in Climate Change Mitigation”
2Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
backgroundcarbon storage effectsubstitution effectresume
background
3Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
Article 3.3 KP ARD Afforestation Reforestation Deforestation
FOREST IN THE KYOTO PROTOCOL
Article 3.4 KP FM Forest management
Forests are considered in GHG Inventories and in the emission reduction targets (Annex I)
Estimation of emissions/removals from carbon pool/stock changes (source/sink) on national level (5 pools for 3.4 KP FM)
4Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
GHG INVENTORIES
GHG Inventory Data of EU (27) acc. to sectors [in BT CO2-eq.]
20051990
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1. Energy (combustion of fossil fuels) 1.A.1 Energy industries 1.A.2 Manufacturing and construction 1.A.3 Transport2. Industrial processes (incl. mineral products & metal
production)4. Agriculture 5. LULUCF
5.A Forest land5.B Cropland5.C Grassland
6. Waste
- -440 MT CO2-eq. in 2005 due to increasing forest area in Europe Source: UNFCCC (2008)
5Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
DEFORESTATION
Deforestation as one of the biggest sources of CO2 on global level [in Bt CO2 y-1]
~ 20% (mainly deforestation)
Source: Schlamadinger and Marland (2000)
6Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
WOOD PRODUCTS IN CLIMATE POLICIES
National GHG-Inventories (UNFCCC)Suggestion of default assumption “that all carbon removed in wood […] from forests is oxidised in the year of removal” (IPCC Guidelines 1996 Vol. 3 p 5.17)However, guidelines recommend the inclusion of HWPs in case stocks are increasing and sufficient data are availableAustralia, Canada, Great Britain and USAMethodology provided in Good Practice Guidance 2003
Kyoto-ProtocolWood products currently excluded from accountingPossible consideration under post-2012 climate regime (Copenhagen)
7Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
backgroundcarbon storage effectsubstitution effectresume
8Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
TERMINOLOGY
Carbon storage along wood products life cycle
roundwood
sawnwood
building
forest post-consumer
wood
CO2 CO2= emission= removal
= store/poolprocess
chain
Only trees remove carbon from the atmosphere, thus being able to serve as a carbon sink. Wood products only constitute a pool for carbon.
9Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
METHODOLOGY FOR HWP
Carbon storage of HWPs in post-2012 climate regime
roundwood
sawnwood
building
forest post-consumer
wood
products in market segments
= store/poolCO2 CO2
= emission= removal
packagingwood based
panels
furniture
10Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
METHODOLOGY FOR HWP
CO2 CO2“ ”
packaging
furniture
building
products in market segments
= store/pool
forest roundwood
wood ased panels
sawnwood
post-consumer
wood
Carbon storage of HWPs in post-2012 climate regimeEstimationof CO2-emissionsin LULUCF sectoron basis of annual stock changes wood products as well?
Use in the market determinesthe duration of carbon storage
Estimation of wood products contribution to LULUCF on the basis of service life data or by means of decay functions (IPCC HWP Model, tier 1)
Need to calculate CO2-emissions from HWPs recursively
11Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
SCREENSHOT HWP MODEL FOR GERMANY
12Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
WOOD PRODUCTS ACCOUNTING
Approaches for accounting currently being discussed Stock Change Production Atmospheric Flow
Who (consumer/producer) accounts for what?On which basis (data)?
Prerequisites for accounting Climate effects should be given priority Creation of positive incentives avoidance of leakage and perverse incentives (deforestation) sustainable forest management and cascade use Methodological consistency with LULUCF/AFOLU calculation of emissions on basis of Δ wood products pool (consumption = production + import – export)
13Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
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14Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
SUBSTITUTION EFFECT
roundwood
sawnwood
building
forest
Substitution effect due to wood utilization
post-consumer
wood
CO2 CO2
energy
material
Impact categories Global Warming Potential(GWP 100) and energy consumption
Material and energy substitution
CO2
Emissions from e.g. processingassessed by means of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
15Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT
LCA summarizes and evaluates all environmentally relevant material and energy flows, as well as all environmentally relevant effects of a product system (ISO EN 14040 and 14044)
Methodology
Raw material
Additives
Energy
Emissions to:
Side prod.
Product
Air
Water
Soil
process or life stage
1
process or life stage
3
process or life stage
2
process or life stage
5
process or life
stage 2
System boundary
process or life stage
4
16Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
BMBF-PROJECT „ÖKOPOT“ – COMPARATIVE LCA
Timber frame wall
Metal frame wall
Brick wall
Calculation of substitution effect of a product only on the basis of functional equivalent:
Dimensions 5000 x 2500 mm Door way 875 x 2000 mm Sound reduction index Rw, R = 38 dB
Example interior wall systems
17Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
Life cycle of building component
Modeling in LCA software
BMBF-PROJECT „ÖKOPOT“ – COMPARATIVE LCA
INPUT OUTPUT
18Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
RESULTS FOR KEY INDICATORS
Primary energy consumption (non-renewable / 100 y.)
Source: vTI und University of Stuttgart/LBP(2007)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000
[in MJ]
Timber frame wall Metal frame wall Brick wall
Substitution potential
19Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
RESULTS FOR KEY INDICATORS
GHG Potential (100 y.) [in kg CO2-eq.]
97 kg CO2-eq. (netto)
488 kg CO2-eq. (netto)
136 kg CO2-eq. (netto)
Source: vTI and University of Stuttgart/LBP (2007)
600500400300200100
0-100-200-300-400
Production and maintenance Fixed carbon Disposal (credit steam & power & recycling potential) Disposal (emitted)
Substitution potential
Timber frame wall Metal frame wall Brick wall
20Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
Substitution and GHG mitigation potential on national level
Brick wall Timber frame wall 72 % 7 %
Metal frame wall 21 %Source: vTI and University of Stuttgart/LBP
(2007)
Scenario: Increase of market share of timber framed interior walls from 7 % to 30 % (brick: 60.5 %, metal: 9.5 %) to estimate substitution effect in Germany
POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTION EFFECT ON NATIONAL LEVEL
21Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
GHG potential (100 y.) [in 1000 T CO2-eq.]
Substitutionseffekt
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800600400200
0
Timber frame wallMetal frame wall Brick wall
Source: vTI and University of Stuttgart/LBP (2007)
GHG potentialas-is state
GHG potential30 % market share for
timber
Substitution effect:208,000 T CO2-eq.
POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTION EFFECT ON NATIONAL LEVEL
22Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
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23Seite© S. Rueter, 2008
RÉSUMÉ
Deforestation is one of the biggest sources of CO2-emissions globally
Accounting for wood products considers storage effect, substitution effect (material/energy) indirectly considered already
Any accounting should give priority to climate effects Accounting should incentivize sustainable forest management and cascade use and avoid negative impacts, e.g. deforestation
LCA results show advantage of locally produced wood products – especially with respect to climate relevant indicators (energy consumption and GHG emissions)
Storage effect calculated for estimating emissions/”removals” from HWP on basis of pool changes on national level
Substitution effect assessed on product level – difficult to assess on national level
Climate relevant LCA impact categories are lead indicators of sustainable building schemesSustainable building schemes conceivable as policy instrument of climate policies
Thank you for your attention
Further informationwww.holzundklima.de/en
[email protected]+49 40 73962-619+49 40 73962-699www.vti.bund.de